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Season starts for real now...

MikeN in Ottawa : 9/29/2014 10:58 am
It is my feeling that the first four games of the NFL season now are essentially an extension of the pre-season. I say this because of the new CBA rules regarding training camp and the fact starters barely play four quarters, sometimes less, in the pre-season.

I rely on several prominent writers for this reasoning...among them Pat Kirwan...who have espoused this philosophy.

I think, in the Giants' case, this thinking is pretty logical because it was only when the starters were practicing and playing together that we started to see progress in terms of the offense and the offensive line. It would appear, right now, that the more they play together the better they are becoming. Certainly, Eli has not looked this good since 2011. And we appear to be getting our running game back.

It is on that basis that, starting this Sunday, I think we can start to evaluate NFL teams a little better and more accurately than what September provided.

In our case, I hope it is a sign of good things to come. October has normally been a good month for us, Eli specifically. Even last year, we were 2-2 in October.
Mike,  
Big Blue '56 : 9/29/2014 10:59 am : link
we were 0-6 last year..:)
Yes, then  
MikeN in Ottawa : 9/29/2014 11:06 am : link
won 2 in a row. 2-2 in october

My point is...you start to see now who is who...if the September wins are mirages or if these teams are for real.

I use Dallas as an example...even Philly as well as us.
Sweet, so does this mean we're tied for first (and last)  
Mike in Long Beach : 9/29/2014 11:07 am : link
instead of a game back (and up)?
This is true every year and not just a recent trend due to the CBA  
ImaGiant86 : 9/29/2014 11:20 am : link
The good teams start to pull away in October & November.
Here's what happened last year  
ray in arlington : 9/29/2014 11:56 am : link
the five 4-0 teams won an average of 8.0 games, std dev 1.0, pct .667
the five 3-1 teams won an average of 5.2 games, std dev 1.6, pct .433
the eleven 2-2 teams won an average of 6.0 games, std dev 3.0. pct .489
the seven 1-3 teams won an average of 5.5 games, std dev 3.3, pct .458
the four 0-4 teams won an average of 5.7 games, std dev 2.0, pct .479

So last year it appears that the 4-0 teams did their job. Everyone else muddled through, although the standard deviations > 3 show the high variability.

(This is just for amusment, this is not enough data to test hypotheses.)
"For Real now"...  
x meadowlander : 9/29/2014 12:53 pm : link
...means 9-3 is a guaranteed spot at the dance.

That's a tall order.

So, the divisional games are critical.
get to  
ray in arlington : 9/29/2014 1:01 pm : link
4-3 and 2-1 in the division before the bye, and it looks pretty good.

otherwise, it's really tough.
RE: Here's what happened last year  
BrettNYG10 : 9/29/2014 1:04 pm : link
In comment 11889795 ray in arlington said:
Quote:
the five 4-0 teams won an average of 8.0 games, std dev 1.0, pct .667
the five 3-1 teams won an average of 5.2 games, std dev 1.6, pct .433
the eleven 2-2 teams won an average of 6.0 games, std dev 3.0. pct .489
the seven 1-3 teams won an average of 5.5 games, std dev 3.3, pct .458
the four 0-4 teams won an average of 5.7 games, std dev 2.0, pct .479

So last year it appears that the 4-0 teams did their job. Everyone else muddled through, although the standard deviations > 3 show the high variability.

(This is just for amusment, this is not enough data to test hypotheses.)


Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I don't think that math adds up (eyeballing it, it looks like the average team would have won <5 games).

Unless the win total averages are for the final 12 games and not the entire season?
unless you are 1-3 or 0-4, then it is over  
Victor in CT : 9/29/2014 1:07 pm : link
but I agree about the quality of play in SEP being pre-season quality from a generation ago.
Giants can go 3-0 in the next 3, but  
giantgiantfan : 9/29/2014 1:12 pm : link
definitely need to go 2-1 before heading into a brutal stretch of Colts, Seahawks, and 49ers. After that the skies clear as our only tough games are in the division and all at home. Over the next 6, 4-2 would be fantastic.

Lots of people want to disregard the Cowboys wins, but the same can be said of our wins. We've beaten up on garbage and at this early juncture lost to the top 2 teams in the NFC (record wise).

So pumped for Sunday. I think we can throttle ATL in our house.
The season started for real in Week 1.  
Exit 172 : 9/29/2014 1:15 pm : link
The two wins and two losses still count.
Nice Exit^^  
dcgiantsfan : 9/29/2014 2:04 pm : link
...I just want them to go 1-0 this weekend!
RE: RE: Here's what happened last year  
ray in arlington : 9/29/2014 2:07 pm : link
In comment 11889904 BrettNYG10 said:
Quote:
In comment 11889795 ray in arlington said:


Quote:


the five 4-0 teams won an average of 8.0 games, std dev 1.0, pct .667
the five 3-1 teams won an average of 5.2 games, std dev 1.6, pct .433
the eleven 2-2 teams won an average of 6.0 games, std dev 3.0. pct .489
the seven 1-3 teams won an average of 5.5 games, std dev 3.3, pct .458
the four 0-4 teams won an average of 5.7 games, std dev 2.0, pct .479

So last year it appears that the 4-0 teams did their job. Everyone else muddled through, although the standard deviations > 3 show the high variability.

(This is just for amusment, this is not enough data to test hypotheses.)



Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I don't think that math adds up (eyeballing it, it looks like the average team would have won <5 games).

Unless the win total averages are for the final 12 games and not the entire season?


yes, the data (mean, sd, pct) is for the teams' remaining 12 games.
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