It is my feeling that the first four games of the NFL season now are essentially an extension of the pre-season. I say this because of the new CBA rules regarding training camp and the fact starters barely play four quarters, sometimes less, in the pre-season.
I rely on several prominent writers for this reasoning...among them Pat Kirwan...who have espoused this philosophy.
I think, in the Giants' case, this thinking is pretty logical because it was only when the starters were practicing and playing together that we started to see progress in terms of the offense and the offensive line. It would appear, right now, that the more they play together the better they are becoming. Certainly, Eli has not looked this good since 2011. And we appear to be getting our running game back.
It is on that basis that, starting this Sunday, I think we can start to evaluate NFL teams a little better and more accurately than what September provided.
In our case, I hope it is a sign of good things to come. October has normally been a good month for us, Eli specifically. Even last year, we were 2-2 in October.
My point is...you start to see now who is who...if the September wins are mirages or if these teams are for real.
I use Dallas as an example...even Philly as well as us.
the five 3-1 teams won an average of 5.2 games, std dev 1.6, pct .433
the eleven 2-2 teams won an average of 6.0 games, std dev 3.0. pct .489
the seven 1-3 teams won an average of 5.5 games, std dev 3.3, pct .458
the four 0-4 teams won an average of 5.7 games, std dev 2.0, pct .479
So last year it appears that the 4-0 teams did their job. Everyone else muddled through, although the standard deviations > 3 show the high variability.
(This is just for amusment, this is not enough data to test hypotheses.)
That's a tall order.
So, the divisional games are critical.
otherwise, it's really tough.
the five 3-1 teams won an average of 5.2 games, std dev 1.6, pct .433
the eleven 2-2 teams won an average of 6.0 games, std dev 3.0. pct .489
the seven 1-3 teams won an average of 5.5 games, std dev 3.3, pct .458
the four 0-4 teams won an average of 5.7 games, std dev 2.0, pct .479
So last year it appears that the 4-0 teams did their job. Everyone else muddled through, although the standard deviations > 3 show the high variability.
(This is just for amusment, this is not enough data to test hypotheses.)
Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I don't think that math adds up (eyeballing it, it looks like the average team would have won <5 games).
Unless the win total averages are for the final 12 games and not the entire season?
Lots of people want to disregard the Cowboys wins, but the same can be said of our wins. We've beaten up on garbage and at this early juncture lost to the top 2 teams in the NFC (record wise).
So pumped for Sunday. I think we can throttle ATL in our house.
Quote:
the five 4-0 teams won an average of 8.0 games, std dev 1.0, pct .667
the five 3-1 teams won an average of 5.2 games, std dev 1.6, pct .433
the eleven 2-2 teams won an average of 6.0 games, std dev 3.0. pct .489
the seven 1-3 teams won an average of 5.5 games, std dev 3.3, pct .458
the four 0-4 teams won an average of 5.7 games, std dev 2.0, pct .479
So last year it appears that the 4-0 teams did their job. Everyone else muddled through, although the standard deviations > 3 show the high variability.
(This is just for amusment, this is not enough data to test hypotheses.)
Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but I don't think that math adds up (eyeballing it, it looks like the average team would have won <5 games).
Unless the win total averages are for the final 12 games and not the entire season?
yes, the data (mean, sd, pct) is for the teams' remaining 12 games.