NFT: 10/01/2014 Fantasy Thread

GB lost JC Tretter at the end of training camp, through the Linsey kid from Ohio St into the fire at Seattle without ever making a game snap to Rodgers. Lotsa growing pains in run defense, he picked pass protection faster. Tretter comes back in 4 weeks, Lacy is a prime buy low candidate.

Dalton
AJGreen has turf toe, minimum healing time is 3 weeks completely staying off the foot with medical treatment. He hasn't done that. Maybe he's a fast healer but in most cases where the player comes back to soon they do more damage to the joint and it never heals. It can very realistically be a problem going forward. Dalton's value takes a major hit without AJ Green.

In comment 11893200 kmed said:

Quote:

He's the 40th ranked RB, just percentage pts higher than Jeremy Hill.

That's somewhat unfair unless you expect that is how things will remain.

Otherwise, look at WR, Demaryius Thomas is the 60th or so (I stopped counting) rated WR in my league, percentage points after Allen Robinson.

I think Lacy has under-performed, but I don't expect it to stay that way.

I don't own him in any leagues so I don't care if his leg falls off, but there are many highly drafted RB's who are not performing to their draft status. Forget Adrian Peterson.

Heck, LeSean McCoy has 10 points more than Lacy. 2.5 per week. And McCoy is tied with Shane Vereen (ppr league).

Demaryius Thomas has a proven track record of getting better each season AND has Peyton throwing him the ball. He will absolutely get his.

Lacy, has a limited track record, doesn't catch the ball, and plays on a team that hasn't run the ball well for the majority of the Rodgers era. Its why I stayed away and wouldn't trade for him.

As for McCoy, it can't get any worse, and i'm sure he will be better worked into the passing game while the OL gets put back together.

can had a 100 yard game. To me that shows it isn't a terrible injury. Could it linger? Sure. But they had a good BYE week for it plus the night game on Sunday. Green should be fine if reports have any merit.

In comment 11893295 UConn4523 said:

Quote:

Demaryius Thomas has a proven track record of getting better each season AND has Peyton throwing him the ball. He will absolutely get his. Lacy, has a limited track record, doesn't catch the ball, and plays on a team that hasn't run the ball well for the majority of the Rodgers era. Its why I stayed away and wouldn't trade for him. As for McCoy, it can't get any worse, and i'm sure he will be better worked into the passing game while the OL gets put back together.

Bingo.

Anti inflammatories, ice, elevation on off days, depends on his endurance for pain and if he develops bone spurs. AJ's too important to that offense to sit for the 3 weeks. He made it through week 3 but didn't finish week 2 just something to keep in mind...

In comment 11893305 kmed said:

Quote:

In comment 11893295 UConn4523 said: Quote: Demaryius Thomas has a proven track record of getting better each season AND has Peyton throwing him the ball. He will absolutely get his. Lacy, has a limited track record, doesn't catch the ball, and plays on a team that hasn't run the ball well for the majority of the Rodgers era. Its why I stayed away and wouldn't trade for him. As for McCoy, it can't get any worse, and i'm sure he will be better worked into the passing game while the OL gets put back together. Bingo.

Just offered Gore for Thomas. Let's go!

I'm thinking it's going to cost a bit more than Gore though.

RE: Lacy....

Besides everything Uconn stated, which was spot on. Chicago was arguably one of the 3 worst run defenses in the game coming into last game and Lacy didn't even crack 50 yards on 17 runs! That's a 2.8 average and a decent number of rushes too. Their running game is awful.

In comment 11893295 UConn4523 said:

Quote:

Demaryius Thomas has a proven track record of getting better each season AND has Peyton throwing him the ball. He will absolutely get his. Lacy, has a limited track record, doesn't catch the ball, and plays on a team that hasn't run the ball well for the majority of the Rodgers era. Its why I stayed away and wouldn't trade for him. As for McCoy, it can't get any worse, and i'm sure he will be better worked into the passing game while the OL gets put back together.

Lacy caught 35 passes as a rookie. 1 per week less than McCoy.

The struggles in GB that were starting to be relieved last Sunday will eventually also be relieved for the running game IMO. Like I said, I don't have Lacy, but I see this is a good buy low opportunity.

Lacy in this offense is not the same Lacy as the Rodgers-less offense. When are you going to realize that?

but you've been touting him since the beginning so you are just reluctant to admit you are wrong.

me and you had similar trade proposals..

a guy offered me Graham Cruz and Vereen for Lynch and Donnel..i accepted after thinking about it and then he balked and started asking me for a bunch of other stuff and eventually no deal was made...

i'm with kmed on this one. Had Rodgers bee there a full season and passed to him 3 times a game you'd have a point, but the guy just isn't part of the offense in that way, and probably never will be unless there is a drastic change somewhere.

Nelson's value has never been higher and Cobb is starting to get it going. That means things may get easier for Lacy but he sure as hell won't be getting their targets.

Gotta give a guy that had close to 1200 yds and 35 receptions at 17 yards per catch last year a chance since he's living with a rookie center. Call me irresponsible but I''d consider him a buy low candidate...

played in last year(although Rodgers got hurt early in one of those games), with 9 of them coming in 2 games. He had 1 catch or less in 5 of the 9 games and he had 21 catches in the 7 games that Rodgers was in street clothes.

Deandre Hopkins
Michael Floyd
Matt Asiata

For some background, my current starting RBs are Jennings and Bell and my #1 receiver is Dez. The 2 spots I'm looking to fill are WR2 and Flex.

In comment 11893328 kmed said:

Quote:

but you've been touting him since the beginning so you are just reluctant to admit you are wrong.

I'll admit I was wrong after the season if his numbers remain at this level. It's not like I'm penciling him in my starting lineup every week and getting my teeth kicked in because of it. I don't think week 4 is when declare finality.

I won't admit I'm wrong after 4 games (including one against Seattle who held Demaryius thomas to 4 catches for 31 yards and peyton manning under his season averages). Let's see the season play out.

It will do me far more good to be wrong than right on this.

but he doesn't have the upside the other buy low's (like McCoy) do.

I'd give up a WR3 for him at this point.

My point isn't to prove you wrong, but to clarify your statement that you don't have Lacy in any leagues so you are being objective. You don't have him, but I'd assume that's more because you weren't in a position to draft him because you've been singing his praises since day 1. You keep making the same mistake too. You keep comparing Lacy with Rodgers to Lacy last year. It's like 2 different players in games Rodgers played and games he didn't.

With Rodgers-he averaged 3.8 yards per carry and caught less than 2 balls per game.

Without Rodgers-he averaged 4.5 yards per carry and caught about 3 balls per game.

When Rodgers went down, they went to a ground and pound offense and Lacy was the center of the offense. If you've ever watched the Packers with Rodgers, you'd know that they don't run anything close to that offense with Rodgers playing.

came in games Rodgers was out.

1100 yards, 30 catches, 200 receiving yards, 8 TD's. In my scoring system of 1 pt per 10 yards, PPR and 6 pts for a TD, that equals=110+30+20+48=208 total points. That would have put him at 18th amongst RB's last year. This year the line is even worse and they are feeding him less. I think his carries will go up more and he will be an ok RB 2 some weeks, but I wouldn't trade for him considering he will cost way too much.

In comment 11893395 kmed said:

Quote:

came in games Rodgers was out.

he was a rookie last year, sure there will be some adjustment for Rodgers return, but I also expected some adjustment for his second season.

Additionally, when the Packers roll out Scott Tolzien, doesn't that scream 8-men in the box, and make it harder to run? So if true, and Lacy had success in those conditions you have to think it's a play call thing limiting Lacy's effectiveness or lessening it when Rodgers is in the game.

It made sense. rookie RB or veteran elite QB, whose hands to you want the ball in?

I expected even with Rodgers, as a 2nd year back they'd incorporate Lacy into the offense more.

Problem is they haven't and they've played some great defenses in SEA and DET and another very good run D in NYJ (that front 4 is ridiculous). Will it change, I think so, but if not, I have zero issue saying I was wrong.

I had opportunities to draft Lacy in both my leagues. One I had the 4th pick and selected Peterson, Lacy went next and the other league I picked 2nd and took Forte. Lacy went 5th.

Alright, so I can get Ben Tate for Cooks straight up in a league where I am really hurting at RB and I can scoop Crowell to cuff him to safeguard me from another injury. My other WR's are Vjax, Michael Floyd, Brian Quick and Terrance Williams. I think I have enough comparable talent to Cooks to make the swap (we only start 2 WR). Any reason not to make that deal?

Vincent Jackson..., keep or trade PPR League. Is Tate coming back sunday ? I need RB help



Rivers
Lynch
Tate
Vjax
Sanders
Hawkins
Graham


Ingram
Josh Gordon
Wheaton
McFadden
Lafell
Rainey
McKinney

Good fantasy RB's rack up pts regardless because they catch balls, get goalline opps and get a lot of touches. That's why GB RB's haven't been great with Rodgers. They don't get a ton of opportunities and they aren't built for running.

Not to mention, Lacy also went against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league(Chicago) and was absolutely stifled with 17 carries and 2.8 yards per carry.

but I do think this early injury left the door open to a RBBC approach moving forward. It's not like the other two guys have proved that they can't run either as both guys have shown flashes. I understand the positional need, but I think Cooks is going to be better.

In comment 11893473 kmed said:

Quote:

Good fantasy RB's rack up pts regardless because they catch balls, get goalline opps and get a lot of touches. That's why GB RB's haven't been great with Rodgers. They don't get a ton of opportunities and they aren't built for running. Not to mention, Lacy also went against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league(Chicago) and was absolutely stifled with 17 carries and 2.8 yards per carry.

I never knew if that was a chicken or egg thing. Their RB were garbage with Ryan Grant, James Starks, the kid from UCLA who looked good, but had a career-ender.

Lacy is their first elite RB since who Ahman Green?

You have to figure you don't use a 2nd round pick for a guy you don't intend on using in your offense. Especially one who demonstrated so much success in the NFL as a rookie. They purposely drafted Lacy, it's not like they somehow got stuck with him.

I think things will change in GB, and if not, if this is it for Lacy, then I'm wrong.

questions in last to first order:

SoZKillA - it really depends on who you would be getting for Jackson. Your WRs obviously aren't a huge strength but will be bolstered once Gordon comes back. Tate is reported to come back but it is going to be a tricky situation with the other two backs playing well to see who comes out of that 3-headed attack.

arc - I agree that you have the comparable talent on board so there shouldn't be much of a dropoff between Cooks and the others listed there. The problem with Tate is the same as I described above but if you can handcuff with Crowell that you can hope one of those two will come out on top. I would make the deal.

RD in CT - I am in a similar boat, I would start Hopkins and Asiata this week and I'm not sure I like the Floyd matchup.

He probably will be but my other RB's are Morris, J. Bell and McKinnon.. I really need another dude. I think I can get by with the other WR's I have especially since I only need to start two of them. I literally just picked up Quick as a FA so there are WR's available in that league but RB is TOTALLY dry. I think I can cover Cooks' production well enough.

FWIW, I have Gordon stashed in that league, too.. but it won't matter if I don't make the playoffs and I'm already 0-4. I feel like I gotta do something. The other offer I got was Sproles/Talaffario for VJax/McKinnon.. I don't think that really does much for me and I want to keep McKinnon because I think he has stud potential for the 2nd half

for Harvin and Ben. Standard scoring 6pt passing td's. My other qb is Cutler. What do you think?

Here are my decisions:

Pick two RB:

Hill @ NE
McKinnon @ GB
Gerhart v PIT
Pierce @ IND
Knile Davis @ SF

Would you start Reggie Wayne or Roddy White?

something he's never proven he can be or sustain, it isn't really close, he's the most talented back in the backfield.

I read he'll get 60% of the snaps this week.

Should be a good test and if he comes out healthy and performs even reasonably well, it props up his value even more and diminishes West and Crowell, if he does nothing or leaves injured (more likely) then this fuels the fire of the RBBC approach or even IR-ing Tate.

Marvin Jones, Malcom Floyd, or ODB?

I feel like Marvin Jones is probably the best bet, but the homer in me really wants Odell on my team just in case he blows up.

Crowell jumped West so I think if Tate gets hurt again, he's getting most of the snaps.. in which case I'm fine anyway. If Tate is healthy, Pettine says he's getting most of the work. So I think I'm gonna pull the trigger. Either way I'll have a guy getting carries which is what I need right now. I'll be alright at WR.

and grab ODB in one league?

I know it's fitz but there has been zero indication to suggest he's gonna start doing anything the way 'zona keeps targeting everyone but him thus far.

You can probably get ODB next week. Check out my trade above.

.

AGF, go with Jones. Odell will probably have some value in a few weeks but I don't think he'll be worth using for a bit. He's not gonna get enough snaps. Jones scored 10 times last year and didn't even play a ton. He knows how to get into the endzone and apparently Hue is really excited about getting him back.

Who would you start?

Alfred Morris vs. Seattle;
Toby Gerhardt vs. Pittsburgh; or
Stevan Ridley vs. Cinninnati.

Typically, it would be a no brainer. Morris all the way. However, this week he's facing a very tough opponent in the Legion of Boom. Would you temp fate and sit him in favor of the unimpressive Gerhardt? For a change, Pittsburgh doesn't have a very tough D. What do you think?

but I don't blame people who do.

if you had to drop one of these players, who would it be?

Alfred Blue***
Carlos Hyde
Bernard Pierce
Ben Tate
Jordan Matthews
Ruben Randle
James Jones

Leaning blue right now

he's buried

I really need to tweak my team. I've lost 2 weeks in a row due to some awful luck (Lost by 1 pt after Woodhead gave me .1 points before getting hurt... lost by 1 pt again after Charles went out thanks to Cordarelle's shitty game).

I'm really week on WR 2 and WR 3. I'm trying to plug the hole with a FA pickup. My RB2 might be kind of weak also (Fred Jackson)... I intended to move FJax and Woodhead in and out based on matches, but that went out the window, though I suppose Fjax isn't a terrible RB2.

Here's my team:

QBs: Luck, Newton

WRs: Alshon, Cordarelle, Boldin, Miles Austin, Allen Hurns (just dropped Hartline).

RBs: Gio, FJax, McFadden, Jeremy Hill (picked him up, but do you think Andre Williams, would be a better stash? I stupidly used a waiver wire claim on Starks, but dropped him this week. How much longer does Lacy need to suck before Starks eats into his carries?

TE: Graham, Jordan Reed (just picked up Reed thinking I can maybe trade him down the line, or at least use him for Graham's bye).

K/Def: Tucker and Pittsburgh.

There's a couple free agents I can pick up. Who do you think is more likely to help out down the line, out of Tavon Austin, Andre Williams, and Malcolm Floyd.

I'm kind of leaning towards picking up Floyd, but who would you drop?

I'm also considering starting Miles Austin over Boldin. I'm hoipng Hurns gets more valuable as the year goes on, now that Shorts is out again, and Marquise Lee has been hurt.

I'm trying to flip Cam for a WR3, but his value is in the garbage. Do you think Michael Floyd or Terrence Williams would be a good value for Cam given the makeup of my team?

In comment 11893573 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

but I don't blame people who do. if you had to drop one of these players, who would it be? Alfred Blue*** Carlos Hyde Bernard Pierce Ben Tate Jordan Matthews Ruben Randle James Jones Leaning blue right now

Pierce. Unless Talafarro or Forsett get hurt, he's totally worthless. There's a good chance Foster gets banged up again which will give Blue value.

yeah, I'm leaning towards sticking with Morris. My other options are not very good.

I agree Pierce is probably the most dropable of your choices.

Which JAX WR is worth holding? Robinson or Hurns?

I have Robinson right now but Hurns is a FA. I know neither are worth a ton but there are a lot of bench spots in my league.

Bortles likes throwing to him and is gettign a lot of targets...

In comment 11893601 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

Which JAX WR is worth holding? Robinson or Hurns? I have Robinson right now but Hurns is a FA. I know neither are worth a ton but there are a lot of bench spots in my league.

I have Robinson, Hurns was picked up in my league after his big week.

but Eli vs ATL or Foles vs STL?

That's rough. I'd go with Eli. I don't trust Foles.

and earlier on...finally!