Archived Thread

Football decision: allowing a repeat of 3rd down

ray in arlington : 10/23/2014 8:04 pm

This situation happened in the Giants-Dallas game.

Let's say an offense runs a play that results in 4th and 1 in an area where they would likely go for it, because a punt would be unproductive on average and a FG is low probability. That could be something like the 37-40 yard line.

The offense commits a 10 yard penalty. That could create something like 3rd and 13, 3rd and 17 or 3rd and 20.

There would be some value of 3rd and X where one would think that it is better to let the offense have 3rd down again. What should X be? In the Dallas-Giants game, Garrett decided to give the Giants 3rd and 17 over 4th and 1.

I have some ideas about how I would evaluate this, but I'd like to open for discussion first. It's best to start off by assuming the offense and defense are involved are average, and that Perry Fewell is not your defensive coordinator.

I think along these lines

BillT : 10/23/2014 8:15 pm : link

If the average distance to 1st down, if you take the penalty, of the two downs (2nd/ 3rd or 3rd/4th) is more than the distance to 1st down of the one down then take the penalty. In the above, no brainer. But with a 5 yard penalty on say third and 9 then 9+5 is 14 divided by the 2 downs is 7 yards per down compared to the 3rd and 9 then you decline. Is that confusing enough?

DC Gmen Fan : 10/23/2014 8:17 pm : link

dafuq r u talkin about?

RE: I think along these lines

ray in arlington : 10/23/2014 8:20 pm : link

In comment 11937662 BillT said:

Quote:

so you would always take a 5-yard or 10-yard penalty in the above example, right?

Certainly from a 3rd/4th and 1 or 2 yards

BillT : 10/23/2014 8:25 pm : link

That's way too close not to. I gets tough in a 3rd and 9 with a 10 yard penalty. Some of that depends on field position for a FG lets say but that aside it's a coin flip.

The main determining factor is what happens to the ball if you decline

Peter in Atlanta : 10/24/2014 7:24 am : link

the penalty. Do they punt? Decline. Do they attempt a "make-able" field goal? Accept. If they're going to run another play anyway, from short yardage. Accept.

I'm sure coaches have a number for X in your question but field position, score, confidence in your defense at that moment also play a part.

Well let's see....

nicky43 : 10/24/2014 8:43 am : link

If we let X equal to the square root of the distance from the goal line to the line of scrimmage and multiply that by the number of yards needed to gain the first down and then divide that by the FG kickers safe FG distance.

Next we let Y equal to the total weight of the defensive line players and subtract from that the total weight of the offensive line players and divide that by the weight of the running back it becomes very clear.

If X is greater than Y thank you take the penalty but if Y is greater than X you decline. If X turns out to be equal to Y you have to fire Fewell.