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NFT: Nurse quarantined for Ebola monitoring will sue

GMAN4LIFE : 10/27/2014 8:26 am
Quote:
(Reuters) - A nurse held in quarantine for Ebola monitoring in New Jersey plans to file a federal lawsuit challenging her confinement as a violation of her civil rights, her lawyer told Reuters on Sunday.

Norman Siegel, a well-known civil rights lawyer, said that Kaci Hickox's confinement after she returned from West Africa raised "serious constitutional and civil liberties issues," given that she remains asymptomatic and has not tested positive for Ebola."We're not going to dispute that the government has, under certain circumstances, the right to issue a quarantine," he said. "The policy is overly broad when applied to her.



i mean in the US, everyone might have a case but come on lady... its for your own good and for everyone else...
story - ( New Window )
NJ probably could have handled it better  
buford : 10/27/2014 8:33 am : link
but she really doesn't get it. Meanwhile, another case:

Quote:
A 5-year-old boy who just returned from West Africa was transported to Bellevue Hospital Sunday with possible Ebola symptoms, according to law-enforcement sources.

The child was vomiting and had a 103-degree fever when he was carried from his Bronx home by EMS workers wearing hazmat suits, neighbors said. He looked weak, said a neighbor.

He was really, really out of it.

The boy returned with his family from Guinea Saturday night and five members of the family were being quarantined inside their apartment, sources said.


http://nypost.com/2014/10/27/5-year-old-boy-being-tested-for-ebola-in-new-york-city/
I'm sorry but when public policy is determined by hysteria and fear  
Giants11 : 10/27/2014 8:54 am : link
it never works out well. We have no massive outbreak in this country. Out of well over 300 million people all of 2 have contracted Ebola here, and they both worked with the patient that died when his viral load is at it's highest level and they have or are recovering. Chances are every person who posts on this thread knows more people than that themselves who have contracted the flu the past month, and that will kill up to 30,000 people this year.
But the flu isn't as deadly  
buford : 10/27/2014 8:55 am : link
as Ebola is, for most people.

And yes, we don't have an outbreak and don't want one.
She's a moron  
bxgiants4 : 10/27/2014 8:57 am : link
Send her ass back to Africa if she has a problem
this bugs me  
oke49 : 10/27/2014 8:58 am : link
many many years ago I served as health officer for my tiny rural County here in Florida.I can remember quarantining individuals and families. It is a necessary part of medical care.this whole debate sounds like one big case of begging the question. That is, they're not addressing the real issue. These folks claim that the quarantine is violating their human rights, that it is illegal, and it is a civil rights issue, and on and on. It's quite simple. It is a public health issue. I wouldn't mind if they served the quarantine at their home with monitoring. But some form of quarantine is necessary.this is what happens when you get a bunch of lawyers dictating on a health issue. Aside from governor Christie opening his big mouth about the patient's condition, I applaud what the Governors have done. This is political correctness gone amok.

I respect Dr.Fauci. I studied his book. He of all people should know some form of quarantine is indicated.
Well they have since back tracked and let the Quarantine's be served  
Giants11 : 10/27/2014 9:03 am : link
at home, while being monitored. This woman was literally stuck in a bubble at a medical facility.
just another case of a lawyer trying to dictate  
redbeard : 10/27/2014 9:05 am : link
matters of which he has no knowledge or experience so he can make a quick buck.

Leave it to the guys and gals with degrees in medicine and public health, counselor.
Unfortunately, I think Fauci left science for politics some time ago  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 9:09 am : link
He was a stellar scientist (he was actually one of the people I considered postdocing for way back when) but since he first moved into the AIDS Institute and then beyond, his concerns have been more about how science fits into politics and how politics can benefit science. Nothing wrong with that and he's done an outstanding job at it, but you do have to understand the context in every public statement he makes.

I think home quarantine is fine too, however, maybe the NY doc makes the case that it's not a perfect system? Maybe quarantine at home with outside supervision would work?

One thing I don't understand about the lawsuit is that the healthcare workers who go over to Africa are obviously somewhat altruistic. They know that they have to give up time and, sometimes income, etc. They want to health and they understand the disease and the problems associated with the disease. So, why wouldn't they just figure a "cooling off" period after leaving Africa is part of the package? Fears might be overblown and the risk small, but they've all seen first-hand the consequences if the disease comes to fruition. The resistance to post-work protocols seems a bit odd.
I don't know how Doctors without borders (or other relief groups) work  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 9:15 am : link
but I assume people sign some sort of contract for a specific period of volunteering. Maybe the easiest thing to do would be to change the contract length/terms so that the specified period is x months in country plus 2 months quarantine. That way, the quarantine is simply part of the job like the however many month of pre-job training sessions.
One thing that should be addressed  
Ira : 10/27/2014 9:19 am : link
is the quality of the facility that people are quarantined. Someone who risks their life to fight a disease that could develop into a pandemic should be treated well. I'm not talking about a five star hotel, just something with a reasonable level of comfort like an ordinary hospital room.

Quote:
She's not allowed to have her luggage and was given paper scrubs to wear. Hickox said she has no shower, no flushable toilet and the hospital gave her no television or any reading material. Mostly, she says, she stares at the walls.

CNN article - ( New Window )
Latest --  
natefit : 10/27/2014 9:21 am : link

Michael BarbaroVerified account
‏@mikiebarb
NYT EXCLUSIVE: Christie says he's planning to release nurse later today if CDC an doctors sign off.
Link - ( New Window )
I do believe  
ctc in ftmyers : 10/27/2014 9:22 am : link
I heard this morning on a tv morning show that they are being paid while in quarantine, however imposed.

So it is essentially an extension of the contract.

this seems upside down  
newmike2 : 10/27/2014 9:25 am : link
She and the other docs have seen this firsthand. Why would they want to risk anything given the 70-90% death rate? Sitting at home for 21 days makes sense but since we've had at least two medical professionals violate the 21 day voluntary quarantine already, I'm not sure that a mandatory quarantine is out of line. It's a public health issue and shouldn't be subject to weepy feelings.
This entire thing is a work in progress and there will be bumps in the road and suing because your feelings were hurt won't change that.
RE: One thing that should be addressed  
GMAN4LIFE : 10/27/2014 9:26 am : link
In comment 11941632 Ira said:
Quote:
is the quality of the facility that people are quarantined. Someone who risks their life to fight a disease that could develop into a pandemic should be treated well. I'm not talking about a five star hotel, just something with a reasonable level of comfort like an ordinary hospital room.



Quote:


She's not allowed to have her luggage and was given paper scrubs to wear. Hickox said she has no shower, no flushable toilet and the hospital gave her no television or any reading material. Mostly, she says, she stares at the walls.

CNN article - ( New Window )



i think this comes with the problem of risking throwing stuff out if she is sick...

this is all precaution and the public wants better action. What fucked this all up was the doctor in NYC. He wasnt careful and all we need is one fuck up to make this worse. I mean Duncan didnt get his family sick which is promising but these doctors should have some common sense and just for them and their families quarantine themselves.

they are getting paid anyways
RE: Latest --  
HomerJones45 : 10/27/2014 9:30 am : link
In comment 11941633 natefit said:
Quote:

Michael BarbaroVerified account
‏@mikiebarb
NYT EXCLUSIVE: Christie says he's planning to release nurse later today if CDC an doctors sign off. Link - ( New Window )
That's a pretty cute move. Ok Feds, if you don't like the quarantine, no problem. You take responsibility for any adverse consequences. Let's see how quick the CDC signs off on it. After all,they are not motivated by "hysteria and fear."
Bill L.: That's a good idea for health care workers who sign on now.  
Big Blue Blogger : 10/27/2014 9:30 am : link
You still have the challenge of managing people who return from pre-existing commitments.

The problem in the Hickox case might have been less the quarantine itself than the arbitrary way the rules shifted while she was going through the protocol. The prevailing public sentiment seems to be that quarantining her was right, but that it was handled badly. I'm not sure there was any way to handle it well, and still impose quarantine on her. She followed the protocol as it existed, and was cleared. Her attorneys have a valid point that the compelling state interest for changing the rules and abridging her rights is pretty vague.

Was she ever asked to accept voluntary quarantine? If not, that might have been the smartest path; then it could be made mandatory for subsequent returnees. The hitch, of course, is that she might have refused.
RE: I'm sorry but when public policy is determined by hysteria and fear  
Bernie : 10/27/2014 9:30 am : link
In comment 11941609 Giants11 said:
Quote:
it never works out well. We have no massive outbreak in this country. Out of well over 300 million people all of 2 have contracted Ebola here, and they both worked with the patient that died when his viral load is at it's highest level and they have or are recovering. Chances are every person who posts on this thread knows more people than that themselves who have contracted the flu the past month, and that will kill up to 30,000 people this year.


I believe the point is to do everything possible to keep the virus from establishing a stronghold in this country. Until 1999, West Nile virus was rare, now it runs rampant every summer.
RE: One thing that should be addressed  
ctc in ftmyers : 10/27/2014 9:32 am : link
In comment 11941632 Ira said:
Quote:
is the quality of the facility that people are quarantined. Someone who risks their life to fight a disease that could develop into a pandemic should be treated well. I'm not talking about a five star hotel, just something with a reasonable level of comfort like an ordinary hospital room.



Quote:


She's not allowed to have her luggage and was given paper scrubs to wear. Hickox said she has no shower, no flushable toilet and the hospital gave her no television or any reading material. Mostly, she says, she stares at the walls.

CNN article - ( New Window )


I think going forward, quarantine will be different as stsea become prepared for it. Again, behind the eight ball being prepared.

Florida is announcing today that quarantine will be in house with examination twice daily by state health officials.

I shouldn't be that the states are required to come up with their own quarantine protocols.
RE: RE: I'm sorry but when public policy is determined by hysteria and fear  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 9:43 am : link
In comment 11941657 Bernie said:
Quote:
In comment 11941609 Giants11 said:


Quote:


it never works out well. We have no massive outbreak in this country. Out of well over 300 million people all of 2 have contracted Ebola here, and they both worked with the patient that died when his viral load is at it's highest level and they have or are recovering. Chances are every person who posts on this thread knows more people than that themselves who have contracted the flu the past month, and that will kill up to 30,000 people this year.



I believe the point is to do everything possible to keep the virus from establishing a stronghold in this country. Until 1999, West Nile virus was rare, now it runs rampant every summer.


I think you have to admit that there is a slight difference between human to human transmitted diseases and mosquito borne diseases. You can't effectively quarantine mosquitoes or spray humanicides on people.
If she wins the lawsuit  
Steve in South Jersey : 10/27/2014 9:49 am : link
it will put us at increased risk of pandemic going forward. Not from Ebola but some other future virus for which we have no effective treatment. Our hands will be tied from using quarantine.
yes I feel a humane quarantine where a hero like her is monitored at  
Giants11 : 10/27/2014 9:50 am : link
home is sensible policy. Locking her in a bubble with no running water or a shower or television or radio is determining policy through hysteria and fear.
RE: She's a moron  
Giants11 : 10/27/2014 9:53 am : link
In comment 11941611 bxgiants4 said:
Quote:
Send her ass back to Africa if she has a problem

You don't have to. She went there on her own free volition as a hero to fight this disease that will probably never come anywhere near you partially due to the bravery of people like her and the Doctors that risk their lives to help others. What an idiotic thing to say.
Yeah, another vote for house arrest plus monitoring  
jcn56 : 10/27/2014 9:54 am : link
I know it's not arrest, but let's call it what it is - it's a serious inconvenience at the bare minimum. It will complicate getting people to sign up for some of these assignments but there's just no way getting around some sort of quarantine.
To a great extent..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 9:56 am : link
this is hysteria based on fear - fear that has been promoted heavily by the Media.

I worry that the net result of the faux panic is that medical personnel will avoid going to areas where viruses are present because of the shit they have to deal with at home.

Take for instance the doctor in NC who has Ebola. The media made it a sideshow and pretty much called the guy's character into question for taking a subway or going bowling while asymptamatic. Then in the next breath, they will very quietly say that the virus can't be passed unless symptoms are present. So who did the guy harm?

It is pretty telling that the only US citizens here in the states who have contracted the virus are medical personnel. Telling because it illustrates just how hard it is to contract the virus. This isn't Africa with substandard treatment areas and substandard sanitation. Even the guy who died in TX didn't pass the virus to any family, only a worker.

Why has mass panic been caused by a virus that is this hard to pass? My thought is because we have 24 hour news stations with only about 1 hour a day of actual news to discuss.
It's not hysteria  
buford : 10/27/2014 10:00 am : link
you can be asymptomatic until you are symptomatic. What if one of these people doesn't have any symptoms and then all of a sudden does and vomits or whatever out in public? If the people are quarantined or contained, it is much easier to control the exposure to the general public.

These patients require a lot of care and it costs a lot of money to treat them. Plus it puts healthcare workers at risk. It is in all of our bests interests to make sure that anyone from that area is monitored for a period. Unfortunately self quarantine hasn't worked.
I have great admiration for anyone who goes abroad and  
buford : 10/27/2014 10:02 am : link
helps people. But let's be realistic. These people go to countries and operate in horrible and unsafe conditions. To ask them to come here and spend 3 weeks in quarantine is not asking too much. They can make the quarantine more pleasant. But that's it.
It is completely hysteria...  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 10:05 am : link
Even if somebody were to suddenly become symptomatic and vomit in public, you know what? The extent of he damage is limited to the people vomited on. Hell, with the flu and other infectious viruses, it is exponentially easier to acquire. Now those other things aren't as deadly, so the end result is much harsh, but there is no denying hat hysteria is at play here.

Almost everyone has the potential to be exposed to the flu. Not even a percentage of one percent of the people have a chance to be exposed to Ebola. - Yet what is the lead story on the news every night for the past month?

If you don't think it is hysteria, you are exactly the type of viewer the Media wants.
1. Nurses don't usually have the $$ to go to federal court  
Marty in Albany : 10/27/2014 10:05 am : link
so it would seem that it is the lawyer making noise.

2. Court won't take the case, because they don't want the nurse in their building.
No matter how noble the service is  
sb2003 : 10/27/2014 10:08 am : link
that these healthcare workers are providing in west Africa they should absolutely be quarantined for 21 days. They SHOULD be doing it on their own, but for some reason they can't seem to deal with it.

No matter how difficult it is for this virus to spread, once one of these people show signs of sickness it becomes a massive task tracking their prior movements, finding those they came in contact with, and then the businesses that these people walked into have the "Ebola stigma" tied to them and customers stop showing up.

It becomes a financial burden as well as a medical burden.

exactly sb  
buford : 10/27/2014 10:12 am : link
Yes, the chances of getting it are slim, but the consequences of catching it are enormous.

And please stop comparing it to the flu. The flu doesn't have a 70% kill rate.
Good for her  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 10:15 am : link
...
why do people keep bringing up the Flu  
UConn4523 : 10/27/2014 10:15 am : link
being more deadly. It isn't. It kills more people because its so easy to get, but have fun defending Ebola not wiping out have the people that get it. Its such a shitty argument.

As for this woman, suing is ridiculous. She wasn't imprisoned. She was monitored via quarantine process. Did she lose her job? Was she beaten or starved? Ridiculous...
halve = half  
UConn4523 : 10/27/2014 10:16 am : link
*
The 70% mortality rate..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 10:16 am : link
is not correct. Medical experts expect the cure rate to be over 70% when treated in modern medical facilities.

Just like you supposedly can't compare Ebola to the flu, you really shouldn't compare medical treatment in a third-world country to that in the US.

You might as well start saying that malnutrition has a 50% mortality rate then.
even if its a 30% mortality rate in the US  
UConn4523 : 10/27/2014 10:17 am : link
that's still enormous. Pick what ever percentage you want, its still really high.
Quarantine procedures are initiated to minimize the extraneous  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 10:22 am : link
crap that you have to throw out after quarantine has been lifted (by the curing of the illness, or by death). Not having a flushing toilet also makes sense.

The apparent limitations on what she doesn't have is ludicrous.
Again -  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 10:25 am : link
It isn't just about mortality rates. It is about scaring the bejeezus out of a lot of american's, some even like buford, who are convinced ebola isn't just a reality, but a huge public health issue.

It is a deadly infection - one that should have precautions of the spread. It definitely should NOT be made out to be something that is likely to threaten the general public.

It is insanity to even try to determine what the mortality rates are anyway. Let's see - in Africa, you have tons of people dying from it in conditions not found here in the US - In the US, we've now had several people treated for the virus and the only one who has died was an African who didn't get proper medical treatment until it was too late.

Really small sample size, but the cure rate of american's contracting Ebola here in the US - 100%.

But yes, let's all get worried about this very dangerous virus. Let's make it the most prominent story over the past month.
As long as the rate of infection  
sb2003 : 10/27/2014 10:25 am : link
remains low in the US, survival rate should remain high.

A lot of resources are applied to these patients including plasma donors. God forbid the rate of infection climbs, you will also see the mortality rate climb. That's not to say that would happen, I'm just saying the quality of care is directly proportional to the number being cared for.

FMiC  
UConn4523 : 10/27/2014 10:28 am : link
its too late for all of that. The country is scared and that's irreversible. So if it takes this lady getting quarantined during the 3-4 weeks the virus can be dormant for, than so be it. She wasn't treated like a criminal; the lawsuit is ludicrous.
She might not have been treated..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 10:31 am : link
like a criminal, but she certainly also wasn't treated by acceptable standards.

One can argue taking basic entertainment choices away and pretty much forcing her to live in a bubble is not only excessive, but unacceptable.

Quarantine her in isolation with a temperature monitor on her - not some sort of thing reserved for aliens or people with auto-immune diseases.
whatever you say man  
UConn4523 : 10/27/2014 10:34 am : link
i'm sure she really deserves the fat check she'll likely get...
the NYC doctor fucked it up for everyone...  
GMAN4LIFE : 10/27/2014 10:35 am : link
when you dont quarantine yourself, you endanger everyone...
Frankly..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 10:36 am : link
I don;t think many people deserve the suit settlements they win. That isn't the point - the point is that her quarantine was neither carried out in a professional nor reasonable manner.
RE: whatever you say man  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 10:36 am : link
In comment 11941753 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
i'm sure she really deserves the fat check she'll likely get...


There is no rationale for her not to be allowed some modicum of personal effects and reading material.
Reality  
natefit : 10/27/2014 10:36 am : link
has left the building. We live in a world of panic and have since AIDS, 9-11 and for God's sakes, bedbugs. Fear mongering has become big busines$. Some of it is warranted and much of it is not, but either way it aint goin away.
Huh??  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 10:37 am : link
Quote:
the NYC doctor fucked it up for everyone...
GMAN4LIFE : 10:35 am : link : reply
when you dont quarantine yourself, you endanger everyone...


This is sort of my point. Who did he endanger? Everyone? He didn't endanger me.
I was planning  
Steve in South Jersey : 10/27/2014 10:38 am : link
a decent sized donation to Doctors Without Borders before she turned them into the ALCU with this lawsuit. I think I will look elsewhere. There are plenty of great charities that don't bring lawsuits.
RE: FMiC  
Giants11 : 10/27/2014 10:38 am : link
In comment 11941743 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
She wasn't treated like a criminal


You are right. Criminals get television and running water and get to talk to someone face to face. She was treated worse.
LOL  
Steve in South Jersey : 10/27/2014 10:39 am : link
I meant that she is turning them into the ACLU.
And here's an issue. You want people to voluntarily quarantine  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 10:40 am : link
themselves in a location outside of their home, and report their symptoms?

You sure as shit don't treat it like an internment camp.

Home quarantine, fine-tuned, is likely the best of all worlds, but comes with severe risks as well.

People who don't understand that the negative attention this situation has caused will have severe behavioral impacts are the ones that worry me.
RE: Frankly..  
buford : 10/27/2014 10:41 am : link
In comment 11941759 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
I don;t think many people deserve the suit settlements they win. That isn't the point - the point is that her quarantine was neither carried out in a professional nor reasonable manner.


She can sue on that. But she can't sue that the quarantine itself is unreasonable. Because it isn't.
RE: She might not have been treated..  
HomerJones45 : 10/27/2014 10:43 am : link
In comment 11941748 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
like a criminal, but she certainly also wasn't treated by acceptable standards.

One can argue taking basic entertainment choices away and pretty much forcing her to live in a bubble is not only excessive, but unacceptable.

Quarantine her in isolation with a temperature monitor on her - not some sort of thing reserved for aliens or people with auto-immune diseases.
Hey if you want to play E-bola roulette with some feverish looking character sitting next to you, go ahead. That doesn't mean everyone wants to play or is able to play. To some populations: elderly, children, those with compromised immune systems, this is a real problem. Obviously, advanced medical care did not save poor Mr. Duncan who was asymptomatic when passing through the airports and screening.

And sorry, a 30% mortality rate when receiving advanced medical care is not trivial.

It's so difficult to choose the correct crisis to get hysterical over nowadays.
The conditions of a quarantine mean that the overall quarantine  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 10:43 am : link
is unreasonable.

A quarantine is meant to check the spread of a disease, not the denial of creature comforts for the ease of the hazmat crew. Especially since she was doing something tremendously brave...
Well..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 10:47 am : link
Quote:
It's so difficult to choose the correct crisis to get hysterical over nowadays.


Part of the issue is to determine what constitutes a crisis. Is something that has a miniscule chance of affecting you or I a crisis worthy of causing a panic over?

I'm not minimizing Ebola - it should be treated like you would other infectious issues. I'm trying to avoid the hyperbole going on here like this is an imminent threat. Maybe we need CNN to talk more about how Ebola COULD go air-borne and then we'd all be fucked.
There are some  
Semipro Lineman : 10/27/2014 10:50 am : link
people in here who don't know what the fuck they are talking about but are persisently loud about it

Sad to see BBI members give such rapid support for some loathsome pandering politicians. If anything, some here should be quarantined to hopefully contain the spread of stupidity.
RE: Well..  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 10:50 am : link
In comment 11941795 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:


Quote:


It's so difficult to choose the correct crisis to get hysterical over nowadays.



Part of the issue is to determine what constitutes a crisis. Is something that has a miniscule chance of affecting you or I a crisis worthy of causing a panic over?

I'm not minimizing Ebola - it should be treated like you would other infectious issues. I'm trying to avoid the hyperbole going on here like this is an imminent threat. Maybe we need CNN to talk more about how Ebola COULD go air-borne and then we'd all be fucked.


Imagine anti-biotic resistant black plague!

Because the plague is still readily available for a crisis, inhabiting the warrens of many underground animals in America!
RE: RE: RE: I'm sorry but when public policy is determined by hysteria and fear  
Bernie : 10/27/2014 10:56 am : link
In comment 11941678 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 11941657 Bernie said:


Quote:


In comment 11941609 Giants11 said:


Quote:


it never works out well. We have no massive outbreak in this country. Out of well over 300 million people all of 2 have contracted Ebola here, and they both worked with the patient that died when his viral load is at it's highest level and they have or are recovering. Chances are every person who posts on this thread knows more people than that themselves who have contracted the flu the past month, and that will kill up to 30,000 people this year.



I believe the point is to do everything possible to keep the virus from establishing a stronghold in this country. Until 1999, West Nile virus was rare, now it runs rampant every summer.



I think you have to admit that there is a slight difference between human to human transmitted diseases and mosquito borne diseases. You can't effectively quarantine mosquitoes or spray humanicides on people.


Sure, right now its just human to human. What happens when a pet contracts it? The point is to do everything to keep this virus contained.
Or..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 10:58 am : link
when it goes air-borne, Bernie. What then?

Let's panic now!!!
The shameful thing is that this will probably push  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 11:01 am : link
back efforts to eliminate TB, polio, and malaria in Africa by years.

It will also probably cut into the funding for HIV and AIDS related treatments in Africa.
RE: RE: Well..  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 11:04 am : link
In comment 11941806 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
In comment 11941795 FatMan in Charlotte said:


Quote:




Quote:


It's so difficult to choose the correct crisis to get hysterical over nowadays.



Part of the issue is to determine what constitutes a crisis. Is something that has a miniscule chance of affecting you or I a crisis worthy of causing a panic over?

I'm not minimizing Ebola - it should be treated like you would other infectious issues. I'm trying to avoid the hyperbole going on here like this is an imminent threat. Maybe we need CNN to talk more about how Ebola COULD go air-borne and then we'd all be fucked.



Imagine anti-biotic resistant black plague!

Because the plague is still readily available for a crisis, inhabiting the warrens of many underground animals in America!
Well, there is antibiotic resistant plague and there is plague in the US. And quite honestly, I don't see the people here who are dismissive and demeaning of ebola or any other public health issue as being any smarter or more correct than those who are in over-the-top paranoia.
RE: Or..  
Bernie : 10/27/2014 11:04 am : link
In comment 11941832 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
when it goes air-borne, Bernie. What then?

Let's panic now!!!


You don't know what you are talking about. Come live in a city that is dealing with this real time and then educate all of us. This is not about hysteria. This is about taking proper precautions to contain an incredibly infectious virus from taking hold in this country.
No. We know what we're talking about.  
x meadowlander : 10/27/2014 11:05 am : link
2 people have caught it.

You have been infected. By fear. Media mission accomplished.
People are great.  
LauderdaleMatty : 10/27/2014 11:07 am : link
It's fucking basic. One person's individual
rights shouldn't trump the rights of others.

That people are heroic isn't the case. Because the CDC and the governemt as usual didn't do anything until Dallas is the issue.

Allowing seriously Ill people into the country is a danger to all of us all. And that wonderful people want to go to Africa and help is great. But there is a financial cost as well and risks.

That this Dr in NY went out when he wasnt symptomatic begs the question. What happens if he became symptomatic while out. It is medically possible


That they were unprepared to quarantine a person in decent conditions is not the same as the need to be careful and make sound scientific rules for people either Coming in or returning From these places.
RE: RE: Or..  
Semipro Lineman : 10/27/2014 11:10 am : link
In comment 11941847 Bernie said:
Quote:
This is about taking proper precautions to contain an incredibly infectious virus from taking hold in this country.


Ebola is not an incredibly infectious virus.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: RE: RE: Well..  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 11:10 am : link
In comment 11941846 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 11941806 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


In comment 11941795 FatMan in Charlotte said:


Quote:




Quote:


It's so difficult to choose the correct crisis to get hysterical over nowadays.



Part of the issue is to determine what constitutes a crisis. Is something that has a miniscule chance of affecting you or I a crisis worthy of causing a panic over?

I'm not minimizing Ebola - it should be treated like you would other infectious issues. I'm trying to avoid the hyperbole going on here like this is an imminent threat. Maybe we need CNN to talk more about how Ebola COULD go air-borne and then we'd all be fucked.



Imagine anti-biotic resistant black plague!

Because the plague is still readily available for a crisis, inhabiting the warrens of many underground animals in America!

Well, there is antibiotic resistant plague and there is plague in the US. And quite honestly, I don't see the people here who are dismissive and demeaning of ebola or any other public health issue as being any smarter or more correct than those who are in over-the-top paranoia.


Yes, I know. But the general public doesn't know.

That's my point. They get infected with irrational fear of the probability of their own infection, and reduce the likelihood that more meaningful diseases take the limelight (and takes away scarce resources from these places).

And you are correct, the extremes are not smart. But that is not the position a lot are taking. The position I continue to take is that overhyping the fear by this disease causes a lot more issues than the actual disease itself.

We've got people crowing for draconian methods to prevent a disease where even a minor understanding of things would state that the costs of reducing the number of American infected to 0 is nigh impossible. And where these methods stamp on a ton of personal liberties.

It's what a lot of political scientists say. So many people are so ideologically confused that their values go out the door the moment they feel a perceived threat. And that's the greater danger to us.

This paranoia and fear of the unknown has led to some pretty shameful moments in our history.
RE: RE: RE: Or..  
Bernie : 10/27/2014 11:15 am : link
In comment 11941867 Semipro Lineman said:
Quote:
In comment 11941847 Bernie said:


Quote:


This is about taking proper precautions to contain an incredibly infectious virus from taking hold in this country.



Ebola is not an incredibly infectious virus. Link - ( New Window )


Hmmm, interesting, that's why healthcare workers wear hazmat suits when caring for the infected. Nice formula, but then their is reality.
What kicker..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 11:16 am : link
just posted pretty much sums up my position as well.

I'd rather people be panicked over the fallout of having several events like Ebola that are overblown lead to a true panic due to complacency or the Boy who Cries Wolf syndrome.

when the Media turns everything into a crisis, sooner or later, people come to the realization they are full of shit. That will have harsher ramifications than Ebola will.

Like I stated before, having a reasonable plan to combat Ebloa is fine. Having an unreasonable opinion on the contagiousness of the virus, or the threat to the general public isn't.
Or because shit sprays all over the place  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 11:17 am : link
when working on people, and it's much easier to destroy a hazmat suit if it gets covered in stuff than a person?

And to clean said hazmat suit, with potentially toxic chemicals?
RE: No. We know what we're talking about.  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 11:18 am : link
In comment 11941855 x meadowlander said:
Quote:
2 people have caught it.

You have been infected. By fear. Media mission accomplished.


There is a lot of fear out there. Much is unwarranted.

But the truth is that there are certain people out there, returning here that have the *potential* to be infectious for a specific period of time. Should they become infectious then there is a certain degree of risk placed on the people who come in contact with them. Even if it's small, it's not nonexistent and they should be aware of it and public health people should be aware of it. Even if the risk is low, they should act properly.

IMO, there is a certain element of irresponsibility and selfishness in some of these people who know that they have the potential to become infectious prior to the 21 days, soon to be closer to 40 days. So they should modify their behavior. Going to a bowling alley or other extraneous public places may not be harmful if you are a few hours before you spike a fever (assuming that you are not infectious a few hours before the fever and there isn't any data either way). However, the bowling alley's business took a hit (I'm guessing) as did Frontier airlines. Maybe it's only fear, but why feed it? And, IMO it's fucking stupid to know that you have the potential to become infectious, even though you haven't yet, and still get on a ship and enclose yourself in a confined space with a thousand other people for a week where it's tough to get to a hospital or even quality medical care.
Bernie..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 11:18 am : link
you do realize that the transfer of fluids is the only way to catch the disease right??

That's the reason for the hazmat suits. Are you treating any Ebola patients? If not, your exposure is limited to some symptomatic guy vomiting on you in a public place. Since I've been vomited on by non-family members exactly 0 times in my life, I'm going to guess my exposure possibilities are slim to none.
Oh come on, FatMan, he doesn't understand  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 11:19 am : link
why Hazmat suits may be a preferable way to deal with this...

And that Hazmat -> highly infectious, or some other shitty logical reasoning.
And quarantine should be enacted. But don't  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 11:20 am : link
treat quarantine like internment camps.

There is a reasonable balance to be struck where these people have some creature comforts, which makes it likelier that they will voluntarily comply with these measures, instead of going into hiding or into denial.

Nurse 1 Christie 0  
natefit : 10/27/2014 11:21 am : link
Washington (CNN) -- After a heated weekend of sparring between a quarantined nurse and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, the nurse is being discharged, the state's Department of Health said in a statement Monday morning.
Link - ( New Window )
Bill..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 11:22 am : link
Quote:
However, the bowling alley's business took a hit (I'm guessing) as did Frontier airlines. Maybe it's only fear, but why feed it?


The flip side is who feeds it. How do I know the bowling alley or the airline he flew on? Because the Media decided to air that information. Do they really need to spread panic like that, either?

there has to be a balance on how to handle the health care workers, so I'm fine with reasonable quarantines. But I'm definitely not a fan of going into every detail which only serves the purpose of scaring anyone who potentially could have come into contact with the guy.
RE: She's a moron  
Section331 : 10/27/2014 11:23 am : link
In comment 11941611 bxgiants4 said:
Quote:
Send her ass back to Africa if she has a problem


Only after we send you.

First of all, holding this woman hostage IN A TENT BEHIND THE HOSPITAL is outrageous. I can go along with a quarantine (even though I think the risk is vastly overstated), but to not allow her to stay at home? Or actually IN a hospital?

Plus, the governor (again) put his foot in his mouth when he stated that she was "obviously ill" when she was showing no symptoms. She should sue.
RE: Bernie..  
Bernie : 10/27/2014 11:25 am : link
In comment 11941883 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
you do realize that the transfer of fluids is the only way to catch the disease right??

That's the reason for the hazmat suits. Are you treating any Ebola patients? If not, your exposure is limited to some symptomatic guy vomiting on you in a public place. Since I've been vomited on by non-family members exactly 0 times in my life, I'm going to guess my exposure possibilities are slim to none.


Listen, my position on this is not about getting infected. It's about taking the proper precautions to keep this from becoming established in the U.S. Proper precautions with proper protocols can help protect against this. Nothing more, nothing less. Right now there is no consistency in the prevention and everything is reactive.
Everyone agrees that the quarantined should  
buford : 10/27/2014 11:26 am : link
have better conditions. That really isn't the issue.

And yes, unfortunately they have to say where the exposed people have been because those people must be made aware that they may have been exposed so they can take precautions.

Again, it's hyper vigilance, but that is how to prevent the spread.
She had a fever on the plane  
buford : 10/27/2014 11:27 am : link
so she was considered ill when she first arrived.
RE: Oh come on, FatMan, he doesn't understand  
Bernie : 10/27/2014 11:28 am : link
In comment 11941885 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
why Hazmat suits may be a preferable way to deal with this...

And that Hazmat -> highly infectious, or some other shitty logical reasoning.


Wow, just wow.
Of course conditions in the quarantine are the issue.  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 11:30 am : link
Unless you somehow think it doesn't have huge ramifications for people who would enter these quarantines without a significant fight, which means you've been kicked in the head by a mule a couple of times.
RE: RE: Oh come on, FatMan, he doesn't understand  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 11:32 am : link
In comment 11941911 Bernie said:
Quote:
In comment 11941885 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


why Hazmat suits may be a preferable way to deal with this...

And that Hazmat -> highly infectious, or some other shitty logical reasoning.



Wow, just wow.


Oh come on. You're the one who doesn't understand the significant benefits of a hazmat suit beyond "highly infectious".
Is Hyper-vigilance..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 11:33 am : link
really what will prevent the spread, or will it be the fact that the virus is damn hard to catch if you aren't a health care worker?

Vigilance is appropriate. Hyper-vigilance, not so much because it allocates resources away from other, more threatening situations.
So which was the political pandering...  
manh george : 10/27/2014 11:33 am : link
by Christy and Cuomo, treating this brave woman like a criminal (actually, worse), or completely giving in and permitting home quarantine and monitoring after the shit hit the fan? (Shit hitting the fan is a really easy way to spread Ebola, btw.)

Those of you who completely agreed with the initial treatment of this woman should be screaming bloody murder at the revisions they just made to their policy. Where are the cries of anguish? I can't hear them. So which is it, was the first policy wrong, or is the current policy wrong?

By the way, Doctors Without Borders didn't sue, one woman who works for DWB sued. I guess if you can't tell the difference they can do without your contribution.
Who didnt see this coming?  
natefit : 10/27/2014 11:35 am : link
A group that advocates for Africans in the Bronx is calling for action after it says two brothers who had recently immigrated to the borough from Senegal were beaten and severely injured by several people who called them Ebola.

The boys, in sixth and eighth grade, were attacked Friday afternoon at I.S. 318 in Tremont, according to the African Advocacy Council.

The boys, who have been in the U.S. for about a month, were taken to the hospital after the attack.
Link - ( New Window )
RE: Bill..  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 11:36 am : link
In comment 11941896 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:


Quote:


However, the bowling alley's business took a hit (I'm guessing) as did Frontier airlines. Maybe it's only fear, but why feed it?



The flip side is who feeds it. How do I know the bowling alley or the airline he flew on? Because the Media decided to air that information. Do they really need to spread panic like that, either?

there has to be a balance on how to handle the health care workers, so I'm fine with reasonable quarantines. But I'm definitely not a fan of going into every detail which only serves the purpose of scaring anyone who potentially could have come into contact with the guy.


My point is that you are right, there is little chance of an outbreak, there's a lot of fear that's unwarranted and over-hyped, but nearly all the precepts for that, as well as the flat, absolutest statements about ease or difficulty in becoming infected are based more on behavior than biology. If people do this or that, then...

Gov't doesn't need to quarantine or place travel restrictions or whatever, but people have to be responsible. You pretty much know if you are an at risk person, so modify your behavior accordingly. there should be more individual responsibility, even if there is some inconvenience associated with it.
"She had a fever on the plane."  
manh george : 10/27/2014 11:37 am : link
Actually, no she didn't. Buford, do you ever do any research before spewing your inanities?
One picture is worth...  
BMac : 10/27/2014 11:37 am : link
I agree the Media has made this into a bigger thing here than it is  
GMAN4LIFE : 10/27/2014 11:41 am : link
hell, the banners in the local news say "EBOLA OUTBREAK" in blood red.

i mean the media is loving this.


but as for my comment on the doctor messing it all up for everyone. Yes he did. He worked on patients and should have at least quarantined himself. But he didnt, he went about his business and then got sick. He was confirmed to have ebola. While he may have not have passed the sickness to anyone yet, he does pose a risk regardless to the public. And i know its hard to get but its contagious none the less.

With anxiety fears, i would be the first to ask for banning all flights but thats just dumb to do. But with the doctors who have been there in the front lines,i would just ask for common sense from them to do their own quarantine. But the doctor proved that isnt the case.
RE: She had a fever on the plane  
Section331 : 10/27/2014 11:41 am : link
In comment 11941909 buford said:
Quote:
so she was considered ill when she first arrived.


According to whom? From the NY Times:

Quote:
Frustrated that she was quarantined, even though she had no symptoms, Ms. Hickox took to national television on Sunday to criticize Mr. Christie about the policy.


This mandatory quarantine had everything to do with politics, and little to do with health policy. 2 governors who have a pipe dream of becoming president get together to hatch this scheme.
Nurse Allowed to Go Home - ( New Window )
Bill  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 11:41 am : link
People aren't responsible, though.

People go through this denial phase for things like Alcoholism and other addictions.

A virus that's been hyped as THE killer of the year? That's why a lot of people are OK with reasonable quarantines. People are stupid, both when infected and when seeing people who are "infected".

But going overboard like this (either through the hype machine or interment camps) will reduce the probability of any rational person being responsible to near 0.

That is the point that FatMan is making, I believe. We've hyped this to high heaven so that personal responsibility in treating this is the outlier.
And that's why "personal responsibility" is taking a shot in the arm  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 11:43 am : link
right now.

Yeah, it's part of human nature to deny having this.

But a huge part is the machine of hype that has ruined the chances for good actions by people.

For fuck's sake, I know a guy who got accused of being a carrier of Ebola. He's from Kenya. Hasn't been there in 6 months.
RE: Is Hyper-vigilance..  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 11:44 am : link
In comment 11941921 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
really what will prevent the spread, or will it be the fact that the virus is damn hard to catch if you aren't a health care worker?

Vigilance is appropriate. Hyper-vigilance, not so much because it allocates resources away from other, more threatening situations.


I would still argue that it's not damn hard to catch. I need to do so more reading about the spread in Africa but I don't see projectile vomiting as being a cultural greeting over there and multiple people have become infected at group gatherings, beyond just caring for overtly sick people. Part of what will limit it to health workers over here is that people will be hospitalized more quickly and contact with others will be limited...you would hope. IOW it's hard to catch because you limit exposure, as opposed to the virus having to work very hard to infect you if you are around it.
RE: RE: RE: Oh come on, FatMan, he doesn't understand  
Bernie : 10/27/2014 11:45 am : link
In comment 11941919 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
In comment 11941911 Bernie said:


Quote:


In comment 11941885 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


why Hazmat suits may be a preferable way to deal with this...

And that Hazmat -> highly infectious, or some other shitty logical reasoning.



Wow, just wow.



Oh come on. You're the one who doesn't understand the significant benefits of a hazmat suit beyond "highly infectious".


Kicker, my point on the hazmat suits was in response to semipro claiming this is not an infectious disease based on a formula. There is theory and then reality.
$10 says a lot of the contagion in Africa  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 11:48 am : link
is from greetings between people, even between healthy and sick, that involves the use of hands.

And then, since people touch their face hundreds of times per day, you have your major transmission vector, especially with piss poor sanitation and anti bacterial gel being too expensive.
There really is a middle ground here.  
manh george : 10/27/2014 11:48 am : link
Mandatory 21 day home quarantine with mandatory twice a day monitoring for fever and symptoms, for anyone who worked with Ebola patients. Society should go the extra mile with these brave people, while protecting the public at the same time.

And btw, the risk from the NY doctor was (not is) greater than zero, but the risks of spreading Ebola go up as symptoms increase, and he did turn himself in when he had a significant (albeit modest) fever.
RE: And that's why  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 11:48 am : link
In comment 11941948 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
right now.

Yeah, it's part of human nature to deny having this.

But a huge part is the machine of hype that has ruined the chances for good actions by people.

For fuck's sake, I know a guy who got accused of being a carrier of Ebola. He's from Kenya. Hasn't been there in 6 months.


Yeah, so people are ignorant about themselves catching it. But most people likely couldn't tell you what a virus is. But health care workers, who are told to self-monitor because there is some potential, no matter how small, of them being infected should still have enough sense to modify their behavior until the danger period is over.
She registered an elevated temperature  
buford : 10/27/2014 11:48 am : link
and that is why she was quarantined. Isn't that how the checks at the airport are supposed to work?

Quote:



NEWARK In a quick reversal of course, the nurse under quarantine at University Hospital in Newark after treating Ebola patients in Africa will be discharged, state officials announced this morning.

Kaci Hickox will be transported privately to Maine where officials there will decide on where she will be permitted to go next.

Officials said while Hickox was initially found with no symptoms, she later developed a fever. She has been symptom free for the past 24 hours, the department of health said.

Link - ( New Window )
You said she had a fever on the plane.  
manh george : 10/27/2014 11:50 am : link
She didn't.
RE: $10 says a lot of the contagion in Africa  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 11:52 am : link
In comment 11941960 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
is from greetings between people, even between healthy and sick, that involves the use of hands.

And then, since people touch their face hundreds of times per day, you have your major transmission vector, especially with piss poor sanitation and anti bacterial gel being too expensive.


Your probably right. That plus more people than not have small cuts or abrasions on skin which provides access. Which means that it's not hard as hell to catch in a biology sense. It's hard to catch in a social sense, which is actually the practical way of thinking about it over here. BTW, anti-bacterial gels or soaps wouldn't protect (beyond ordinary sanitation/hygiene measures) for obvious reasons.
Bill..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 11:52 am : link
it has spread in Africa because the primary caregivers before the patient gets "real" medical care are dealing with vomiting/ bleeding, and other fluids. Here in the US, you take the hazmat suit and properly handle it after coming in contact with fluids. Over there, they don't use the appropriate sanitation to clean after fluids have been spread.

You can find footage and photos of loved ones holding ebola patients while they are sick. Even when the foreign medical personnel are present, people are still near the patients.

for the most part, my opinion isn't too far from yours on the matter of taking precautions. But a lot of people are missing the point that the hysteria is unnecessary (and probably created in a large part due to the Media). I also think people don't realize what a great divide there is in medical care given in Africa vs. the US. Heck, on this thread alone, you have people using mortality rates from Africa to symbolize US rates.
So she was tested after she got off the plane  
buford : 10/27/2014 11:53 am : link
and had a fever. The point is, she registered a fever and that's why she was quarantined. Even the CDC says that checking people's temperatures and then if they have a fever they have to be quarantined.
But it has spread to healtcare workers here  
buford : 10/27/2014 11:55 am : link
the theory is that because we do more invasive procedures that there is more of a risk, even with proper protection. But those poor nurses in Dallas didn't have the proper protection.
Read,  
oldog : 10/27/2014 11:56 am : link
the current edition of the New Yorker. It says, one, repeat 1, particle, of the virus is sufficient to infect. It also says that the virus may be transmitted not by dry airborne particles, but by airborne fluid droplets. It mutates quickly, and though there are many reassuring statements out there, it continues to spread, and spread.... Now this nurse is a hero, beyond all doubt, but let`s treat her well, and if appropriate, compensate her, but isn`t it just a bit better to be safe than sorry.
With serums now being created from former patients who survived...  
manh george : 10/27/2014 11:56 am : link
the death rate on new patients in the US is likely to be fairly modest. Even the 30% number that is now being thrown around is just a guess, and may be on the high side. We haven't had anyone die yet since the initial patient who was thoroughly mishandled, and who arrived at time before there were serums available.
That differs from what I heard reported...  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 11:56 am : link
the report i heard said she did not have any symptoms but was placed into quarantine because of the new policy enacted by New York and New Jersey requiring ANY medical person returning from Africa working with ebola to go into quarantine.
RE: So she was tested after she got off the plane  
Section331 : 10/27/2014 11:57 am : link
In comment 11941977 buford said:
Quote:
and had a fever. The point is, she registered a fever and that's why she was quarantined. Even the CDC says that checking people's temperatures and then if they have a fever they have to be quarantined.


Maybe you can cite a reference, because I haven't seen that anywhere, only that she exhibited no symptoms. And it is not just the NY Times, it's the Newark Star Ledger and Bergen Record, as well.
RE: Read,  
Section331 : 10/27/2014 12:00 pm : link
In comment 11941982 oldog said:
Quote:
the current edition of the New Yorker. It says, one, repeat 1, particle, of the virus is sufficient to infect. It also says that the virus may be transmitted not by dry airborne particles, but by airborne fluid droplets. It mutates quickly, and though there are many reassuring statements out there, it continues to spread, and spread.... Now this nurse is a hero, beyond all doubt, but let`s treat her well, and if appropriate, compensate her, but isn`t it just a bit better to be safe than sorry.


The problem with your post is that the term "airborne" is misleading. Yes, technically, a fluid droplet can pass through the air onto another person and potentially infect them, but the term "airborne" has a very specific meaning when dealing with contagious diseases.

"Airborne" refers to particles that can hangin the air and infect people who encounter them. That IS NOT the case with Ebola.
I already did  
buford : 10/27/2014 12:01 pm : link
section.
RE: RE: And that's why  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 12:05 pm : link
In comment 11941963 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 11941948 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


right now.

Yeah, it's part of human nature to deny having this.

But a huge part is the machine of hype that has ruined the chances for good actions by people.

For fuck's sake, I know a guy who got accused of being a carrier of Ebola. He's from Kenya. Hasn't been there in 6 months.



Yeah, so people are ignorant about themselves catching it. But most people likely couldn't tell you what a virus is. But health care workers, who are told to self-monitor because there is some potential, no matter how small, of them being infected should still have enough sense to modify their behavior until the danger period is over.


But that's part of the problem.

Year after year, we expect people to act rationally and on behalf of society as a whole. It's the atomistic notion that we can rely on the goodwill of others.

And year after year, on average, it fails. Up and down the income, education, and IQ spectrum.

It ignores basic human psychology and a whole host of other factors. While health care workers are more likely, on average, to self-monitor and change their behavior, you can't and shouldn't expect it wholesale.
I have no problem with the quarantine.  
section125 : 10/27/2014 12:05 pm : link
The conditions were a joke, but then again the Feds did nothing and Cuomo and Christie had to do something and it was a quickly thrown together place.
Was it "humane"? Not even close and could have/should have been upgraded over time. But her whining from the beginning and threats were just as bad. Guess I'd be pissed too if I just got home from some shithole for extended period and somebody threw me in isolation with no creature comforts. I think suit has little merit. But I definitely could see the frustration level she had.
RE: With serums now being created from former patients who survived...  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 12:07 pm : link
In comment 11941983 manh george said:
Quote:
the death rate on new patients in the US is likely to be fairly modest. Even the 30% number that is now being thrown around is just a guess, and may be on the high side. We haven't had anyone die yet since the initial patient who was thoroughly mishandled, and who arrived at time before there were serums available.


Mg I saw an early story about Brantly's serum potentially being used to treat Pham...did that actually happen? Have they given it to other patients?

The therapy that Brantly received, which will likely be an experimental therapy used going forward was not recovered patient's serum but manufactured antibodies (originally mouse made). Those would be the protective elements in serum, although patients wouldn't be getting sera per se. I haven't read anything about Brantly's sera even having anything beneficial in it, even though it was mentioned as something to try. I also haven't seen much in the way of using sera from recovered people in Africa where you would think it would be something that would already be in place.
RE: There really is a middle ground here.  
ctc in ftmyers : 10/27/2014 12:08 pm : link
In comment 11941962 manh george said:
Quote:
Mandatory 21 day home quarantine with mandatory twice a day monitoring for fever and symptoms, for anyone who worked with Ebola patients. Society should go the extra mile with these brave people, while protecting the public at the same time.

And btw, the risk from the NY doctor was (not is) greater than zero, but the risks of spreading Ebola go up as symptoms increase, and he did turn himself in when he had a significant (albeit modest) fever.


This

RE: RE: $10 says a lot of the contagion in Africa  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 12:08 pm : link
In comment 11941972 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 11941960 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


is from greetings between people, even between healthy and sick, that involves the use of hands.

And then, since people touch their face hundreds of times per day, you have your major transmission vector, especially with piss poor sanitation and anti bacterial gel being too expensive.



Your probably right. That plus more people than not have small cuts or abrasions on skin which provides access. Which means that it's not hard as hell to catch in a biology sense. It's hard to catch in a social sense, which is actually the practical way of thinking about it over here. BTW, anti-bacterial gels or soaps wouldn't protect (beyond ordinary sanitation/hygiene measures) for obvious reasons.


I know anti-BACTERIAL soaps won't protect.

The point was about simple hygenic measures, where they don't have have the luxury of washing hands consistently with clean water.

We take those for granted here, whereas in Africa, we shouldn't. And the fact that even basic hygenic measures for the majority of 22 million people in these countries (with such minimal infection rates and tremendously crowded centers) hints that, even biologically, it is extremely hard to catch.

RE: RE: RE: And that's why  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 12:10 pm : link
In comment 11942005 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
In comment 11941963 Bill L said:


Quote:


In comment 11941948 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


right now.

Yeah, it's part of human nature to deny having this.

But a huge part is the machine of hype that has ruined the chances for good actions by people.

For fuck's sake, I know a guy who got accused of being a carrier of Ebola. He's from Kenya. Hasn't been there in 6 months.



Yeah, so people are ignorant about themselves catching it. But most people likely couldn't tell you what a virus is. But health care workers, who are told to self-monitor because there is some potential, no matter how small, of them being infected should still have enough sense to modify their behavior until the danger period is over.



But that's part of the problem.

Year after year, we expect people to act rationally and on behalf of society as a whole. It's the atomistic notion that we can rely on the goodwill of others.

And year after year, on average, it fails. Up and down the income, education, and IQ spectrum.

It ignores basic human psychology and a whole host of other factors. While health care workers are more likely, on average, to self-monitor and change their behavior, you can't and shouldn't expect it wholesale.


I don't. I've said many times that people are the limiting factor in this and that's why I don't buy flat statements form cdc or any one else. They almost all depend on people doing the right thing. And I do not expect health care workers to be any different from the rest of the public. In Africa, the mean time from becoming symptomatic (infectious) to hospitalization was 5 days for both healthcare workers and non-healthcare workers. Here, it's healthcare workers who flit about the country on airplanes, take cruises, go bowling...
RE: RE: RE: RE: Oh come on, FatMan, he doesn't understand  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 12:11 pm : link
In comment 11941954 Bernie said:
Quote:
In comment 11941919 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


In comment 11941911 Bernie said:


Quote:


In comment 11941885 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


why Hazmat suits may be a preferable way to deal with this...

And that Hazmat -> highly infectious, or some other shitty logical reasoning.



Wow, just wow.



Oh come on. You're the one who doesn't understand the significant benefits of a hazmat suit beyond "highly infectious".



Kicker, my point on the hazmat suits was in response to semipro claiming this is not an infectious disease based on a formula. There is theory and then reality.


All you've told me is that you can't understand a distinction between infectious and "incredibly infectious".

And where, perchance, do you think those formulas come from?
RE: RE: RE: RE: And that's why  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 12:12 pm : link
In comment 11942016 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 11942005 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


In comment 11941963 Bill L said:


Quote:


In comment 11941948 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


right now.

Yeah, it's part of human nature to deny having this.

But a huge part is the machine of hype that has ruined the chances for good actions by people.

For fuck's sake, I know a guy who got accused of being a carrier of Ebola. He's from Kenya. Hasn't been there in 6 months.



Yeah, so people are ignorant about themselves catching it. But most people likely couldn't tell you what a virus is. But health care workers, who are told to self-monitor because there is some potential, no matter how small, of them being infected should still have enough sense to modify their behavior until the danger period is over.



But that's part of the problem.

Year after year, we expect people to act rationally and on behalf of society as a whole. It's the atomistic notion that we can rely on the goodwill of others.

And year after year, on average, it fails. Up and down the income, education, and IQ spectrum.

It ignores basic human psychology and a whole host of other factors. While health care workers are more likely, on average, to self-monitor and change their behavior, you can't and shouldn't expect it wholesale.



I don't. I've said many times that people are the limiting factor in this and that's why I don't buy flat statements form cdc or any one else. They almost all depend on people doing the right thing. And I do not expect health care workers to be any different from the rest of the public. In Africa, the mean time from becoming symptomatic (infectious) to hospitalization was 5 days for both healthcare workers and non-healthcare workers. Here, it's healthcare workers who flit about the country on airplanes, take cruises, go bowling...


That's been my exact point, and why quarantine measures like this (and the media hysteria) play a disproportionately large role in creating further incentives to minimize self-monitoring.

You turn into a national scapegoat as well. Fun times.
The virus is less lethal  
WideRight : 10/27/2014 12:18 pm : link
when treated here than in Africa.

More argument against quantine as a life-saving protocol.
RE: RE: RE: $10 says a lot of the contagion in Africa  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 12:27 pm : link
In comment 11942013 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
In comment 11941972 Bill L said:


Quote:


In comment 11941960 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


is from greetings between people, even between healthy and sick, that involves the use of hands.

And then, since people touch their face hundreds of times per day, you have your major transmission vector, especially with piss poor sanitation and anti bacterial gel being too expensive.



Your probably right. That plus more people than not have small cuts or abrasions on skin which provides access. Which means that it's not hard as hell to catch in a biology sense. It's hard to catch in a social sense, which is actually the practical way of thinking about it over here. BTW, anti-bacterial gels or soaps wouldn't protect (beyond ordinary sanitation/hygiene measures) for obvious reasons.



I know anti-BACTERIAL soaps won't protect.

The point was about simple hygenic measures, where they don't have have the luxury of washing hands consistently with clean water.

We take those for granted here, whereas in Africa, we shouldn't. And the fact that even basic hygenic measures for the majority of 22 million people in these countries (with such minimal infection rates and tremendously crowded centers) hints that, even biologically, it is extremely hard to catch.


As sort of an aside, I was reading a paper that mapped the genetic origin of this particular ebola outbreak. There were a ton of co-authors (56). Since it was a genetic research paper, my guess is that there was little interaction with patients and more handling of specimens. The work was done in multiple sites both here at Harvard and in Sierra Leone. But even the work done in Sierra Leone was done in a hospital with qualified people using precautions and likely as good hygiene practices as you would find here. The paper notes that 5 of the co-authors died from ebola.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Oh come on, FatMan, he doesn't understand  
Bernie : 10/27/2014 12:27 pm : link
In comment 11942018 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
In comment 11941954 Bernie said:


Quote:


In comment 11941919 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


In comment 11941911 Bernie said:


Quote:


In comment 11941885 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


why Hazmat suits may be a preferable way to deal with this...

And that Hazmat -> highly infectious, or some other shitty logical reasoning.



Wow, just wow.



Oh come on. You're the one who doesn't understand the significant benefits of a hazmat suit beyond "highly infectious".



Kicker, my point on the hazmat suits was in response to semipro claiming this is not an infectious disease based on a formula. There is theory and then reality.



All you've told me is that you can't understand a distinction between infectious and "incredibly infectious".

And where, perchance, do you think those formulas come from?


OK Professor, do me the honor and educate me on the classroom difference between infectious and incredibly infectious. Out here in the real world, I go by what I see. Both the flu and Ebola are infectious, yet healthcare workers do not wear hazmat suits when treating someone with the flu. But that may be too simple.
RE: RE: RE: $10 says a lot of the contagion in Africa  
sb2003 : 10/27/2014 12:28 pm : link
In comment 11942013 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
In comment 11941972 Bill L said:


Quote:


In comment 11941960 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


is from greetings between people, even between healthy and sick, that involves the use of hands.

And then, since people touch their face hundreds of times per day, you have your major transmission vector, especially with piss poor sanitation and anti bacterial gel being too expensive.



Your probably right. That plus more people than not have small cuts or abrasions on skin which provides access. Which means that it's not hard as hell to catch in a biology sense. It's hard to catch in a social sense, which is actually the practical way of thinking about it over here. BTW, anti-bacterial gels or soaps wouldn't protect (beyond ordinary sanitation/hygiene measures) for obvious reasons.



I know anti-BACTERIAL soaps won't protect.

The point was about simple hygenic measures, where they don't have have the luxury of washing hands consistently with clean water.

We take those for granted here, whereas in Africa, we shouldn't. And the fact that even basic hygenic measures for the majority of 22 million people in these countries (with such minimal infection rates and tremendously crowded centers) hints that, even biologically, it is extremely hard to catch.


They also have rituals/customs that are perfect for this disease to spread. They wash down the dead before burial. Those bodies are highly contagious right after death.
RE: The virus is less lethal  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 12:28 pm : link
In comment 11942049 WideRight said:
Quote:
when treated here than in Africa.

More argument against quantine as a life-saving protocol.


Bah, the virus is the virus. Lethality or infectivity doesn't change. The support and care and treatment methods make the outcome different.
RE: The virus is less lethal  
buford : 10/27/2014 12:29 pm : link
In comment 11942049 WideRight said:
Quote:
when treated here than in Africa.

More argument against quantine as a life-saving protocol.


Mostly because the patients we've had here (besides Duncan) are being treated much earlier than they are in Africa. From the moment they feel ill.
It's not more infectious than the flu  
buford : 10/27/2014 12:31 pm : link
but it's deadlier. Hence the hazmat suits.
Patients in Africa..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 12:34 pm : link
are often treated the moment they get ill - but not by the same medical standards we use here. Sanitation and controlling the spread are often afterthoughts. In fact, in a lot of villages, care is done in tents where a running water supply is non-existant.

There is a heightened awareness of ebola in Africa, so care is often done even for people who don't actually have it, but feel sick.

I will point to one point here though about how effective treatment can make a difference - Nigeria has recently made the claim that they are 100% Ebola-free. How? An influx of foreign aid workers, as concentrating the treatment in actual hospitals instead of in field tents went a long way to eradicating it.
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: Oh come on, FatMan, he doesn't understand  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 12:36 pm : link
In comment 11942072 Bernie said:
Quote:
In comment 11942018 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


In comment 11941954 Bernie said:


Quote:


In comment 11941919 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


In comment 11941911 Bernie said:


Quote:


In comment 11941885 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


why Hazmat suits may be a preferable way to deal with this...

And that Hazmat -> highly infectious, or some other shitty logical reasoning.



Wow, just wow.



Oh come on. You're the one who doesn't understand the significant benefits of a hazmat suit beyond "highly infectious".



Kicker, my point on the hazmat suits was in response to semipro claiming this is not an infectious disease based on a formula. There is theory and then reality.



All you've told me is that you can't understand a distinction between infectious and "incredibly infectious".

And where, perchance, do you think those formulas come from?



OK Professor, do me the honor and educate me on the classroom difference between infectious and incredibly infectious. Out here in the real world, I go by what I see. Both the flu and Ebola are infectious, yet healthcare workers do not wear hazmat suits when treating someone with the flu. But that may be too simple.


Yes, there is no distinction, in reality, of infectious vs. highly infectious. Infectious is infectious; sticking yourself with a sharp is equivalent to disposing of the hazardous waste material, since there are no such things as levels (you know, something called nuance).

And I'm sorry, if you can't differentiate between the costs and benefits of wearing a hazmat suit with different types of illnesses, no one can help you.

Perhaps the non-use of hazmat suits to deal with the flu is related to:

1. Healthcare professionals receiving the flu vaccine.
2. The fact that dealing with patients, in a hazmat suit, with the flu is burdensome for the activities required (hydration, mainly). And that there are costs and benefits of wearing said suit.
3. That flu is deadly for a subset of the population, who typically receive no treatment. And that the mortality rate from flu is low even if you get it.
4. The fact that, when dealing with patients with influenza, you are working with a variety of other patients with other ailments, where cross-contamination with flu can be avoided by mainly hygenic measures. And it takes time to switch in and out of the haz-mat suit?
virus isnt just a virus  
GMAN4LIFE : 10/27/2014 12:37 pm : link


And, quite frankly, the inability to delineate between  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 12:40 pm : link
different types of infection rates (you know, a distinction between highly infectious and not highly infectious) is very important, because it calls into questions the differences in measures that need to be used.

Something that's highly infectious requires extreme centralized control, because it's likely that the incubation period is very short. And that's dangerous.

Less infectious means more decentralized measures can have the desired effect.
RE: Patients in Africa..  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 12:49 pm : link
In comment 11942094 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
are often treated the moment they get ill - but not by the same medical standards we use here. Sanitation and controlling the spread are often afterthoughts. In fact, in a lot of villages, care is done in tents where a running water supply is non-existant.

There is a heightened awareness of ebola in Africa, so care is often done even for people who don't actually have it, but feel sick.

I will point to one point here though about how effective treatment can make a difference - Nigeria has recently made the claim that they are 100% Ebola-free. How? An influx of foreign aid workers, as concentrating the treatment in actual hospitals instead of in field tents went a long way to eradicating it.


I don't think you give Nigeria enough credit. There government was very proactive and very communicative. They responded in a serious fashion and had tons of messaging about behaviors and hygiene. They did the brunt of the work of coordinating internal and foreign medical efforts. They did the work in what was probably the most critical element in stopping disease spread which was to vigorously track contacts, *isolate*, and monitor them. They had a vigorous screening procedure at airports (some airlines stopped flights from West Africa to Nigeria). Senegal which also cleared itself of ebola closed their borders and had a travel ban.
I think that world-wide the mortality rate for flu  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 12:52 pm : link
can range up to 30%. That's not exactly low. There's reasons why it's lower here but besides vaccination and prior exposure, they're similar to those mentioned for ebola.
The one thing Nigeria has going for them is incredible  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 12:52 pm : link
amounts of corruption that consolidates power so that, even though they have modeled Executive power after the U.S. and used a system based on Westminster, they can respond quickly and relatively ruthlessly to threats.
You are exactly right..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 12:53 pm : link
about all those points. I was only using it as an example to show that modernizing the treatment has worked.

Nigeria did an excellent job in education, which only goes to show how once people are educated on the true risk of the virus, how strides were made.

Compare that to the US where even on this thread people don't have the same take on how Ebola is spread. That's where my disdain with the Media comes in. Instead of filling 24 hours with conjecture or future fears, concentrate on the facts of the virus. not "sexy" reporting, but a hell of a lot more responsible.
RE: And, quite frankly, the inability to delineate between  
Bernie : 10/27/2014 12:55 pm : link
In comment 11942108 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
different types of infection rates (you know, a distinction between highly infectious and not highly infectious) is very important, because it calls into questions the differences in measures that need to be used.

Something that's highly infectious requires extreme centralized control, because it's likely that the incubation period is very short. And that's dangerous.

Less infectious means more decentralized measures can have the desired effect.


So now you are saying Ebola is not highly infectious. You guys think this is no big deal and is nothing more than a media event. That's nice. We now have a DEADLY virus in this country that was never here before. If you can't see the implications of this, than whatever. I am done with this.
RE: I think that world-wide the mortality rate for flu  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 12:55 pm : link
In comment 11942136 Bill L said:
Quote:
can range up to 30%. That's not exactly low. There's reasons why it's lower here but besides vaccination and prior exposure, they're similar to those mentioned for ebola.


But if you want to use worldwide flu mortality rates, you have to compare it with worldwide Ebola mortality rates, which is more than double that of the flu.

But, according to the WHO, there are 3-5 million "serious" cases, and 200,000-500,000 deaths.

Assuming that all the serious cases result in death, that is a mortality rate on the order of 4%-16.7%.
RE: RE: And, quite frankly, the inability to delineate between  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 12:58 pm : link
In comment 11942148 Bernie said:
Quote:
In comment 11942108 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


different types of infection rates (you know, a distinction between highly infectious and not highly infectious) is very important, because it calls into questions the differences in measures that need to be used.

Something that's highly infectious requires extreme centralized control, because it's likely that the incubation period is very short. And that's dangerous.

Less infectious means more decentralized measures can have the desired effect.



So now you are saying Ebola is not highly infectious. You guys think this is no big deal and is nothing more than a media event. That's nice. We now have a DEADLY virus in this country that was never here before. If you can't see the implications of this, than whatever. I am done with this.


Did you seriously get kicked in the head by a mule?

When have I said that this doesn't require quarantine? But the significant over-hyping of this has adverse consequences, relative to its infection rates.

Hepatitis, malaria, influenza, measles. All are highly infectious.

I've seen the implications of shitty policy and massive over-hyping of the hysteria. It has both short-term impacts and long-term impacts.
Bernie..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 12:59 pm : link
how much more likely are you to catch the flu vs. Ebola?

You want an estimate? About 10 million times more likely.

If you think that's worth widespread panic, then I don't know what to say.
RE: RE: I think that world-wide the mortality rate for flu  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 1:03 pm : link
In comment 11942149 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
In comment 11942136 Bill L said:


Quote:


can range up to 30%. That's not exactly low. There's reasons why it's lower here but besides vaccination and prior exposure, they're similar to those mentioned for ebola.



But if you want to use worldwide flu mortality rates, you have to compare it with worldwide Ebola mortality rates, which is more than double that of the flu.

But, according to the WHO, there are 3-5 million "serious" cases, and 200,000-500,000 deaths.

Assuming that all the serious cases result in death, that is a mortality rate on the order of 4%-16.7%.


Yeah I jumbled my math. But it's still not "low". Less than ebola but not insignificant. People should take the flu more seriously IMO and I still feel you're an idiot if you don't get your flu shot.
Even though Ebola is not highly infectious, it should still  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 1:03 pm : link
be treated with an air of caution since the consequences of catching it, for that person, are very high.

You seem to think that the response to a disease should be based on its infection rate, and thus seem to think that people who are arguing it isn't highly contagious don't think it's an issue.

That's incorrect.

The centralized treatment of a disease depends on a variety of factors, namely broken down to:

1. Infection Rate
2. Mortality rate
3. Incubation period

2. requires some centralized control (such as quarantine) for Ebola, and 3. is both a blessing and a curse for Ebola (means you have time to identify patients, but it also requires cooperation for a lengthy period of time).
RE: RE: RE: I think that world-wide the mortality rate for flu  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 1:11 pm : link
In comment 11942175 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 11942149 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


In comment 11942136 Bill L said:


Quote:


can range up to 30%. That's not exactly low. There's reasons why it's lower here but besides vaccination and prior exposure, they're similar to those mentioned for ebola.



But if you want to use worldwide flu mortality rates, you have to compare it with worldwide Ebola mortality rates, which is more than double that of the flu.

But, according to the WHO, there are 3-5 million "serious" cases, and 200,000-500,000 deaths.

Assuming that all the serious cases result in death, that is a mortality rate on the order of 4%-16.7%.



Yeah I jumbled my math. But it's still not "low". Less than ebola but not insignificant. People should take the flu more seriously IMO and I still feel you're an idiot if you don't get your flu shot.


I was talking about the mortality rate from influenza being low in the U.S. (as that is where a majority of the flu vaccines take place; certainly not in the developing world). Since hazmat suits for daily workers in developing countries is a luxury, in many cases.

I've steadfastly maintained that cross-country comparisons, with regards to infection rates, mortality rates, health care systems, etc., are notoriously poor, for a number of reasons.
Section 331,  
oldog : 10/27/2014 1:19 pm : link
thanks for the science lecture, but read the article.
RE: I'm sorry but when public policy is determined by hysteria and fear  
River Mike : 10/27/2014 1:22 pm : link
In comment 11941609 Giants11 said:
Quote:
it never works out well. We have no massive outbreak in this country. Out of well over 300 million people all of 2 have contracted Ebola here, and they both worked with the patient that died when his viral load is at it's highest level and they have or are recovering. Chances are every person who posts on this thread knows more people than that themselves who have contracted the flu the past month, and that will kill up to 30,000 people this year.


First, if you do some diligent research you will find that the 30,000 figure has absolutely zero solid statistics supporting it.
Second we are not quarantining 300 million people. I would guess that substantially less than that have flown here from west Africa in the past couple of weeks and at least one of them is dead of Ebola. Those are the numbers that apply to the quarantining. Playing with statistics can be very sloppy at times.
Sorry  
Semipro Lineman : 10/27/2014 1:24 pm : link
that I didn't come back to this sooner but I put the infection rate formula link up as a joke. As someone who has worked with engineers, I happen to know there is a difference between a formula written on a blackboard and the real world application.

The real point of the matter is that some of you guys feel that something should be done but because the normal proper steps aren't drastic enough for your liking so you support this political pandering.

The normal procedures for handling Infectious diseases are more than robust enough to handling this in my opinion.

Especially given the difference in infrastructure and resources between America and Africa. Finally given the fact that there are well over 200 million people in the affected countries but only five thousand deaths thus far despite a poor infrastruction to fight and prevent contamination in some areas should tell you that the disease can be contained
The CDC estimates that the annual influenza death toll  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 1:25 pm : link
is 3,000-49,000 per year, depending on how the calculations are done.

It depends on how they classify the diagnosis of death, and how much of a contributory factor influenza was.
Large range of influenza deaths per year - ( New Window )
RE: Sorry  
River Mike : 10/27/2014 1:30 pm : link
In comment 11942225 Semipro Lineman said:
Quote:
that I didn't come back to this sooner but I put the infection rate formula link up as a joke. As someone who has worked with engineers, I happen to know there is a difference between a formula written on a blackboard and the real world application.

The real point of the matter is that some of you guys feel that something should be done but because the normal proper steps aren't drastic enough for your liking so you support this political pandering.

The normal procedures for handling Infectious diseases are more than robust enough to handling this in my opinion.

Especially given the difference in infrastructure and resources between America and Africa. Finally given the fact that there are well over 200 million people in the affected countries but only five thousand deaths thus far despite a poor infrastruction to fight and prevent contamination in some areas should tell you that the disease can be contained


Absolutely it can be controlled, and there's no rationale for panic. The caveat is that it can be controlled if appropriate measures are taken. There might not be universal agreement on what appropriate measures would be, however, keep in mind that hospital workers who have taken what was deemed appropriate infectious disease precautions have been infected. Avoiding panic does not rule out prudence.
RE: The CDC estimates that the annual influenza death toll  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 1:36 pm : link
In comment 11942229 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
is 3,000-49,000 per year, depending on how the calculations are done.

It depends on how they classify the diagnosis of death, and how much of a contributory factor influenza was. Large range of influenza deaths per year - ( New Window )


Haha. I was just going to link this report. I think though, that the range you cited is for a 10-year period.

I'm linking the latest weekly report. Of note, we just started flu season and there's been one (pediatric) death this year so far. The number for last year was 109. IMO that makes this m ore serious than D68 which people are panicking about.

Link - ( New Window )
I think I'll be more worried about chikingunya or ZIka or dengue  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 1:38 pm : link
because I really want to go to the Caribbean soon. Or, I'll just wait because they're not all that far from making it Florida (at least Chik and Zika)
RE: RE: The CDC estimates that the annual influenza death toll  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 1:43 pm : link
In comment 11942263 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 11942229 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


is 3,000-49,000 per year, depending on how the calculations are done.

It depends on how they classify the diagnosis of death, and how much of a contributory factor influenza was. Large range of influenza deaths per year - ( New Window )



Haha. I was just going to link this report. I think though, that the range you cited is for a 10-year period.

I'm linking the latest weekly report. Of note, we just started flu season and there's been one (pediatric) death this year so far. The number for last year was 109. IMO that makes this m ore serious than D68 which people are panicking about. Link - ( New Window )


Bill,

I don't think it's for a 10 year rolling average. I think it's annual, because the CDC reports that, in 2011, there were about 53,000 deaths from the flu and pneumonia (National Vital Statistics Report).

It was 50,000 in 2010, and 53,000 in 2009.
The CDC figures have some problems  
River Mike : 10/27/2014 1:44 pm : link
the biggest of which is that they lump flu and pneumonia deaths together. As you may imagine, many people contract and die from pneumonia outside of getting the flu. There's no way to tease out the non-flu pneumonia numbers.
Here  
River Mike : 10/27/2014 1:47 pm : link
Quote:
Pneumonia, according to the American Lung Association, has more than 30 different causes, influenza being but one of them. The CDC itself acknowledges the slim relationship, saying "only a small proportion of deaths... only 8.5 per cent of all pneumonia and influenza deaths [are] influenza-related."
RE: RE: RE: The CDC estimates that the annual influenza death toll  
Bill L : 10/27/2014 2:16 pm : link
In comment 11942294 kickerpa16 said:
Quote:
In comment 11942263 Bill L said:


Quote:


In comment 11942229 kickerpa16 said:


Quote:


is 3,000-49,000 per year, depending on how the calculations are done.

It depends on how they classify the diagnosis of death, and how much of a contributory factor influenza was. Large range of influenza deaths per year - ( New Window )



Haha. I was just going to link this report. I think though, that the range you cited is for a 10-year period.

I'm linking the latest weekly report. Of note, we just started flu season and there's been one (pediatric) death this year so far. The number for last year was 109. IMO that makes this m ore serious than D68 which people are panicking about. Link - ( New Window )



Bill,

I don't think it's for a 10 year rolling average. I think it's annual, because the CDC reports that, in 2011, there were about 53,000 deaths from the flu and pneumonia (National Vital Statistics Report).

It was 50,000 in 2010, and 53,000 in 2009.


Yeah, it's clearer in the original paper. My math is really wonky today. I think I'm going home before I blow something up.
Bill  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 2:20 pm : link
It wasn't clear at all.

I had to read, re-read, and then re-re-read.

They never used the word "annual" in there once, and had, as a time frame, 1976-2007.

Until I figured out it couldn't be 10 deaths from flu each year and found other stuff was when I put it all together (on my 4th reading).
I find it interesting that the lawsuit...  
BMac : 10/27/2014 3:10 pm : link
...that kicked this whole thread off was instituted to gain the nurse's release. I see no mention anywhere of suing for dollars. That was, of course, automatically assumed by some on this thread (myself included) until I read the linked article.

It would have served a better purpose for the OP to have stated this in the opening post.
RE: I find it interesting that the lawsuit...  
GMAN4LIFE : 10/27/2014 3:18 pm : link
In comment 11942609 BMac said:
Quote:
...that kicked this whole thread off was instituted to gain the nurse's release. I see no mention anywhere of suing for dollars. That was, of course, automatically assumed by some on this thread (myself included) until I read the linked article.

It would have served a better purpose for the OP to have stated this in the opening post.


huh... i put the whole article in the first post... i never mentioned money or anything...

and i question the whole reluctant to go and help in africa after  
GMAN4LIFE : 10/27/2014 3:21 pm : link
being treated like this..

In the debate about to quarantine or not. The argument is doctors and nurses will be more reluctant to go over to help. Let me get this logic straight....so your such a great, human, loving. person that you will go. You will leave all that you know behind. You will risk your life daily. You will face an unseen killer who can creep in at anytime to help people you have never met, because you are so good. But-you won't go into guarantee when you come back to save your own country, friends, child? Yeah makes sense to me.

smh
RE: RE: I find it interesting that the lawsuit...  
BMac : 10/27/2014 3:21 pm : link
In comment 11942637 GMAN4LIFE said:
Quote:
In comment 11942609 BMac said:


Quote:


...that kicked this whole thread off was instituted to gain the nurse's release. I see no mention anywhere of suing for dollars. That was, of course, automatically assumed by some on this thread (myself included) until I read the linked article.

It would have served a better purpose for the OP to have stated this in the opening post.



huh... i put the whole article in the first post... i never mentioned money or anything...


GMan...The point I was (poorly) making was that as soon as people hear "lawsuit" they immediately associate it with dollars. Some of the posts near the top of the page reflect this. I contend that not stating that the suit was non-monetary set the thread up for the usual lawsuit rants. Fortunately, the thread was steered into the hysteria angle and was saved.

Nothing personal.
It isn't that..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 10/27/2014 3:25 pm : link
people won't go into quarantine - it is the hassles that go along with their return. Most doctors that volunteer for these things do it on their own time off. Last thing they need is to come back and have another three weeks before getting back to work, which will also beg the question about how receptive will their employers be to having them out not just for the time n Africa, but also for nearly a month upon their return.

I've already talked to some doctors who said it definitely is going to be a factor if the crackdowns continue.
RE: and i question the whole reluctant to go and help in africa after  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 3:29 pm : link
In comment 11942650 GMAN4LIFE said:
Quote:
being treated like this..

In the debate about to quarantine or not. The argument is doctors and nurses will be more reluctant to go over to help. Let me get this logic straight....so your such a great, human, loving. person that you will go. You will leave all that you know behind. You will risk your life daily. You will face an unseen killer who can creep in at anytime to help people you have never met, because you are so good. But-you won't go into guarantee when you come back to save your own country, friends, child? Yeah makes sense to me.

smh


Yes. Believe it or not, people respond to the treatment they receive when undertaking actions.

If you're treated as a prisoner when you return with a draconian quarantine, it disincentivizes the people to go through the hassle of helping others.

When you increase the expected costs of an action, you decrease the likelihood with which people will undertake the action.

It's the same reason people don't help during natural disasters when federal agencies impose more stringent guidelines on what you can do to help. It doesn't make the people any less benevolent, but changes their cost calculus.
RE: It isn't that..  
GMAN4LIFE : 10/27/2014 3:31 pm : link
In comment 11942660 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
people won't go into quarantine - it is the hassles that go along with their return. Most doctors that volunteer for these things do it on their own time off. Last thing they need is to come back and have another three weeks before getting back to work, which will also beg the question about how receptive will their employers be to having them out not just for the time n Africa, but also for nearly a month upon their return.

I've already talked to some doctors who said it definitely is going to be a factor if the crackdowns continue.


yea that may be so but this is a big deal. I mean people have died with this disease and the spread can be worse if we dont make drastic decisions. The fact to ask someone to self quarantine just for 21 days to make sure they dont have any of the symptoms isnt a tall order. Again, the doctor in NYC could have disproved this but unfortunately, he didnt.
It doesn't have to solely hit doctors to have an impact.  
kickerpa16 : 10/27/2014 3:32 pm : link
What about support staff, like nurses? Or other volunteers who have less experience, and can likely less afford to be gone for that amount of time without pay?
well with this now being more serious than ever before,  
GMAN4LIFE : 10/27/2014 3:48 pm : link
new guidelines should be in place for these people. They should still be paid for their time in quarantine. It sucks but its the reality now.
RE: this bugs me  
ed90631 : 10/27/2014 9:02 pm : link
In comment 11941612 oke49 said:
Quote:
many many years ago I served as health officer for my tiny rural County here in Florida.I can remember quarantining individuals and families. It is a necessary part of medical care.this whole debate sounds like one big case of begging the question. That is, they're not addressing the real issue. These folks claim that the quarantine is violating their human rights, that it is illegal, and it is a civil rights issue, and on and on. It's quite simple. It is a public health issue. I wouldn't mind if they served the quarantine at their home with monitoring. But some form of quarantine is necessary.this is what happens when you get a bunch of lawyers dictating on a health issue. Aside from governor Christie opening his big mouth about the patient's condition, I applaud what the Governors have done. This is political correctness gone amok.

I respect Dr.Fauci. I studied his book. He of all people should know some form of quarantine is indicated.


You miss her point completely. She is more important than anyone else and asking her to give up time from her very important life is too much of an imposition. Who cares if anyone else contracts Ebola and dies an agonizing death, she's got shopping to do. Community-minded folks like yourself just don't get it. She counts and nobody else does.
Has anyone  
Semipro Lineman : 10/27/2014 9:14 pm : link
else noticed how quick people here are to give up other people's rights?

It's a just and necessary hardship that we're asking you to endure for the sake of our peace of mind. Never mind civil rights and crap like that. They're not important right now because this violation is something that doesn't directly effect me
her quarantine setup shouldve been better  
spike : 10/27/2014 10:05 pm : link
than a tent structure outside the University Hospital in Newark.
RE: her quarantine setup shouldve been better  
ctc in ftmyers : 10/27/2014 10:57 pm : link
In comment 11943536 spike said:
Quote:
than a tent structure outside the University Hospital in Newark.


This

Which most of the people have been saying.

Loonies will be loonies.
Now the nurse is refusing Maine's quarantine guidelines  
Steve in South Jersey : 10/29/2014 11:55 am : link
"I don't plan on sticking to the guidelines," she said. "I remain appalled by these home quarantine policies that have been forced upon me."
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/29/health/us-ebola/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 - ( New Window )
so now it doesnt matter about any conditions, she doesnt want it  
GMAN4LIFE : 10/29/2014 12:02 pm : link
yep... she is a winner
She's refusing a more set of restrictive procedures, and  
kickerpa16 : 10/29/2014 12:15 pm : link
opting to use other procedures that have a similar basis in science.

Self-reporting several times a day.

I'd prefer the 21 day home quarantine, but the other measures are not without basis (Doctors Without Borders recommends the less restrictive reporting procedures).
She's a cunt  
bxgiants4 : 10/29/2014 12:17 pm : link
.
Adults are talking  
kickerpa16 : 10/29/2014 12:18 pm : link
...
Does the fact that no one here is dying from Ebola here matter?  
manh george : 10/29/2014 12:39 pm : link
Yes, Eric Duncan died, but he was a special case--first case here, allowed to go home, not protocol for experimental drugs or serums made from blood of survivors yet, etc.

Other than that, there have been 7 US cases reported, and exactly zero deaths. The reasons why are clear--link.

If the infection rate stays low (as is very likely) and the death rate from those infected also stays low (as is also likely), perhaps the grownups in government will take over the discussion. So far they are losing: Hagel is send troops to West Africa to help, and then is quarantining them when they get back. A two star general was recently quarantined, despite a lack of symptoms.
Link - ( New Window )
the fact that a doctor came back from west africa from directly  
GMAN4LIFE : 10/29/2014 12:48 pm : link
dealing with patients that had ebola and then getting ebola is the problem.

Well, it would be a problem...  
manh george : 10/29/2014 1:18 pm : link
if the science suggested that he put anyone at risk. There is no evidence that he did.

He self-monitored, and the only question is whether the teeny-tiny symptoms he had the night before he turned himself in put anyone at risk. Risks go up as symptoms go up, and you still only get ebola if a contact with body fluids took place. There is no evidence that one did.
We just had  
Berrylish : 10/29/2014 1:49 pm : link
Ebola training and conference at the hospital. We do have some employees that work at one of the designated hospitals as well as ours. I think the nurse is being stupid in her lawsuit. If you work with an outfit such as Doctors without Borders, you have to realize the jeopardy you could potentially be in, when you are working with such a deadly disease. If I were her, and I returned from a mission on W. Africa after helping Ebola patients, I would not have a problem with a quarantine, as long as, I knew in advance, when I got back to the US, that everything was already set up. I would not have a problem in quarantine until I were cleared. I would not want to endanger any loved ones or anyone else for that matter. However, it needs to be handled well. I don't know exactly how it was handled in her case. She stated being treated like a criminal. She could just be a selfish person, or it was greatly mishandled or somewhere in between.
Berrylish...  
manh george : 10/29/2014 1:56 pm : link
the evidence as to how badly she was treated is all over the Net, as well as on TV. Kept in a tent with concrete floors, no shower, non-flush toilet, no reading materials, no TV, with the clear inference that she would be kept that way for 21 days. And that was after the aggressive criminal-like treatment at the airport.

And, there is no evidence in the science that home self-monitoring as a form of quarantine is insufficient. I suspect that her lack of willingness to comply with that is because she was pissed. I disagree with her, but understand what drove her.
manh  
Berrylish : 10/29/2014 2:00 pm : link
unfortunately, I spend too much time at the hospital to even glance at the news or internet. Finally have today off followed by a 10 hour OR gig tomorrow. So yes, if that is the case, it was handled beyond poorly.
if it were  
Berrylish : 10/29/2014 2:01 pm : link
at the hospital where I am... quarantine would have been sooooooo much nicer. And yes, manh... I agree with you. I get what drove her, now.
Yeah, she seems to not care about protocol  
buford : 10/29/2014 2:02 pm : link
I find that a bit worrisome in a nurse. Is it overkill, probably. But she should understand the issues involved and be cooperative.

I heard that in Bellvue they had to transport a whole bunch of patients to another hospital because of the one Ebola patient he had. Even if it's not that contagious, the amount of precaution that has to be taken makes each case a huge problem.
RE: Berrylish...  
buford : 10/29/2014 2:03 pm : link
In comment 11946770 manh george said:
Quote:
the evidence as to how badly she was treated is all over the Net, as well as on TV. Kept in a tent with concrete floors, no shower, non-flush toilet, no reading materials, no TV, with the clear inference that she would be kept that way for 21 days. And that was after the aggressive criminal-like treatment at the airport.

And, there is no evidence in the science that home self-monitoring as a form of quarantine is insufficient. I suspect that her lack of willingness to comply with that is because she was pissed. I disagree with her, but understand what drove her.


She's now vowing not to observe a home quarantine.
Ebola patients are not contagious until they have symptoms,  
Section331 : 10/29/2014 2:11 pm : link
at which point, they'd likely be too sick to go out. Again, so much of this is much ado about nothing. If the nurse has not exhibited any symptoms, why should she have to observe any quarantines?
Because that is the protocol  
buford : 10/29/2014 2:15 pm : link
.
um, Buford  
manh george : 10/29/2014 2:18 pm : link
I just said that. If you want to quote what I said, please read it first. Thx.
RE: Well, it would be a problem...  
Bill L : 10/29/2014 2:18 pm : link
In comment 11946703 manh george said:
Quote:
if the science suggested that he put anyone at risk. There is no evidence that he did.

He self-monitored, and the only question is whether the teeny-tiny symptoms he had the night before he turned himself in put anyone at risk. Risks go up as symptoms go up, and you still only get ebola if a contact with body fluids took place. There is no evidence that one did.


IMO, that's a tough argument. There's no evidence that he put anyone at risk because (apparently) he didn't. (Of course, we don't know how his contacts will turn out either yet). However, he always had the potential and he knew that. There's still a lot of question as to degree of symptoms and infectivity. Is it none until you are symptomatic or is it now no infectivity until you are beyond the teeny tiny stage? There simply aren't well-defined, well-controlled studies. I did see something today where they were touting a new pcr test for ebola that is detecting virus in the blood well before a person becomes symptomatic. Again, no correlation with being contagious but if there is detectable virus in the blood then it does present at least the possibility of transmission. IMO, if you know you're potentially infected, you should be a responsible person.


RE: Ebola patients are not contagious until they have symptoms,  
Bill L : 10/29/2014 2:20 pm : link
In comment 11946801 Section331 said:
Quote:
at which point, they'd likely be too sick to go out. Again, so much of this is much ado about nothing. If the nurse has not exhibited any symptoms, why should she have to observe any quarantines?


What is the window? If you're criterion is fever, presumably you can be below the (arbitrary) temperature threshold one second and above it the next. Do you become infectious right at that point? Ten minutes later? An hour? A day? Where is the data.
RE: um, Buford  
buford : 10/29/2014 2:30 pm : link
In comment 11946814 manh george said:
Quote:
I just said that. If you want to quote what I said, please read it first. Thx.


It wasn't clear in your post whether you were referring to her new quarantine. Stop being so touchy.
Bill, I disagree with Sec 311...  
manh george : 10/29/2014 2:38 pm : link
but the science I have read suggests a reasonable window: significant time after you get a moderate fever like 100 and the onset of symptoms that are more risky to the general population.

Health care professionals, in particular, should be OK with home quarantine and self-monitoring. The NY doctor, in this case, should have been subject to more specific protocols for home quarantine, I think, but the risks don't appear significant.

Ebola is still difficult to transmit--not-without body fluid exchange--and at this point no one is dying. Imo, we need a national protocol of home quarantine with monitoring for anyone who might have been in contact with Ebola patients in Africa. No more, no less.
RE: RE: Well, it would be a problem...  
GMAN4LIFE : 10/29/2014 2:44 pm : link
In comment 11946815 Bill L said:
Quote:
In comment 11946703 manh george said:


Quote:


if the science suggested that he put anyone at risk. There is no evidence that he did.

He self-monitored, and the only question is whether the teeny-tiny symptoms he had the night before he turned himself in put anyone at risk. Risks go up as symptoms go up, and you still only get ebola if a contact with body fluids took place. There is no evidence that one did.



IMO, that's a tough argument. There's no evidence that he put anyone at risk because (apparently) he didn't. (Of course, we don't know how his contacts will turn out either yet). However, he always had the potential and he knew that. There's still a lot of question as to degree of symptoms and infectivity. Is it none until you are symptomatic or is it now no infectivity until you are beyond the teeny tiny stage? There simply aren't well-defined, well-controlled studies. I did see something today where they were touting a new pcr test for ebola that is detecting virus in the blood well before a person becomes symptomatic. Again, no correlation with being contagious but if there is detectable virus in the blood then it does present at least the possibility of transmission. IMO, if you know you're potentially infected, you should be a responsible person.



+1
I'm okay with that  
Bill L : 10/29/2014 2:44 pm : link
I do have problems with the doc going out bowling, the nurse flying and, especially, the nurse leaving for a cruise. Home quarantine and regular monitoring seems reasonable to me.
Last I checked the CDC  
ron in new mexico : 10/29/2014 2:47 pm : link
themselves added a bit to the confusion. The rule on airline travel was a fever present at any level and the fever present to be deemed at risk for ebola was 101.5.
That was last week so as they change it seems every day it could have.

My understanding was in NY(I don't know NJ) the person was allowed self quarantine at home if they had one to go to with limited exposure allowed. No parties any of that but close family 2 or 3 was OK. Conn it seems that is what they are coin though that is not in the new much. If you did not have a nearby home to go to was when it got sticky. NY said medical facilityI don't know NJ.

The self quarantine at home was accompanied by a check by PD by a visit or by email or phone.

There is not a perfect response to this. But if say they have to move 10 patients and check on a 100 people for a exposure if this stuff is not done, and someone gets a fever...not to mention the losses potentially to small businesses, a lawsuit any small amount lost would likely be overwhelmed by the costs of not quarantining at all.
To my opinion.

No reason for hysteria but it still is a real thing.
Interesting situation now in Vermont  
SwirlingEddie : 10/29/2014 3:18 pm : link
where a man returning from West Africa has been placed at the State's expense into voluntary quarantine. He stated he went to help with the crisis there, but is not a licensed physician in the state and was not affiliated with any known NGO. His actual contact with infected patients is believed to be neglible if any, and he is not exhibiting any symptoms.

Almost sounds like a wacky guy who wanted a free place to stay for a few weeks.

article - ( New Window )
JUst what they need  
ron in new mexico : 10/29/2014 3:28 pm : link
another nut job to complicate the situation.

REminds me of 9/11 how many nut jobs went over or tried to get over thee to find OBLI remember several.

Crisis seems to bring them out of the woodwork.
Do not do as we do  
ron in new mexico : 10/29/2014 3:34 pm : link
do as we say.

"U.S. troops returning from Ebola-stricken nations will be isolated for 21 days, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel announced Wednesday, a day after the White House raised concerns about states imposing strict quarantines of health care workers returning from West Africa."
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