NFT: The Official NY Mets Off Season Thread

Mookie Betts will be expensive, but he should be worth it. He can hit, has some pop and very good speed. He could be the lead off hitter we've been missing since letting Reyes go.

Great pitching was showcased the past few weeks. Quiets the noise from the past year plus that pitching isn't as valuable as it used to be, pitchers get injured, etc. Mets surplus is a bit more valuable today than it was a month ago. Problem is wheelers value jumped but colons is status quo.

Wouldn't be shocked to see a move mets fans hate. Ex. Moving Legares as part of a package for a stud corner OF. Not the Mets preferred approach, but may be necessary.

SP:
Lester (31)
Scherzer (30)
Shields (33)
Liriano (31)
McCarthy (31)
Hammel (32)
Masterson (30)
Peavy (34)
ESantana (32)
Volquez (30)

RP:
Robertson (30)
Romo (32)
Janssen (33)
Gregerson (31)
Hochevar (31)
Neshek (34)
Stauffer (32)
Coke (32)
Duke (32)
Miller (30)

C:
Martin (32)
Soto (32)

1B:
LaRoche (35)
Morse (33)
Cuddyer (36)

2B:
Bonifacio (30)
KJohnson (33)
RSantiago (35)

SS:
Hanley (31)
Lowrie (31)
Drew (32)
ACabrera (29)
Barmes (36)

3B:
Sandoval (28)
Headley (31)

OF:
Tomas (24)
MCabrera (30)
Cruz (34)
Denorfia (34)
Willingham (36)
Rasmus (28)
Aoki (33)
Markakis (31)
Rios (34)
Hunter (39)
Ichiro (41)

DH:
Butler (29)
VMart (35)
KMorales (31)
DYoung (29)

be absolutely stunned to see Lagares moved. OF defense is still undervalued (as great as Lagares is) and Sandy has proven he won't "lose" a trade on paper. Lagares wouldn't bring back his "equal" value on a good CO.

Unrelated in terms of payroll Rubin is projecting Duda at 4.25, Murphy 8.1, Gee 4.9

Adam gives Gee 4.99 bringing our projected total to 71.39 without Parnell, EYJ, Tejada, Carlyle, Eveland

First 3 likely come in at a combined 8.5 million or so which would put the payroll at roughly 80 million plus everyone making 500K or so (minimum) before any additions so not much room if they bring everyone back unless payroll is increased. So on paper it appears moving Murphy (and/or Gee/Niese etc) is "necessary" to add anyone "expensive" unless the payroll is going up.

1. Noah Syndergaard (RHP) 22 years old (AAA/MLB) 88% of 34 votes
2. Dilson Herrera (2B) 21 years old (AAA/MLB) 56% of 39 votes
3. Brandon Nimmo (CF) 22 years old (AAA) 33% of 43 votes (Run-off vs. Matz 55% of 40 votes)
4. Steven Matz (LHP) 24 years old (AAA) 69% of 48 votes
5. Michael Conforto (LF) 22 years old (A+) 49% of 43 votes
6. Kevin Plawecki (C) 24 years old (AAA) 59% of 34 votes
7. Rafael Montero (RHP) 24 years old (AAA/MLB) 65% of 37 votes
8. Marcos Molina (RHP) 20 years old (A) 43% of 40 votes (Run-off with Rosario 55% of 40 votes)
9. Amed Rosario (SS) 19 years old (A) 75% of 40 votes
10. Jhoan Urena (3b) 20 years old (A) 42% of 38 votes
11. Gavin Cecchini (SS) 21 years old (A) 57% of 37 votes
12. Dominic Smith (1b) 20 years old (A) 75% of 28 votes
13. Matt Reynolds (SS/2b) 24 years old (AAA) 52% of 31 votes
14. Cory Mazzoni (RP/SP) 25 years old (AAA) 46% of 28 votes
15. Matthew Chou Bowman (SP/RP) 24 years old AAA 42% of 38 votes
16. Cesar Puello (23) AAA (OF) 24% of 33 votes, runoff with Fulmer 52% of 31 votes
17. Buca di Beppo (Becerra) 28% of 29 votes, runoff vs. Maz 57%
18. LJ Mazzilli (24) 28% of 32 votes, runoff with Meisner 52% of 31 votes
19. Casey Meisner (20) (A) 57% of 30 votes
20. Milton Ramos (19) (A) 21% of 28 votes, run-off with Ynoa 52% of 23 votes
21. Gabriel Ynoa (22) (AA) 64% of 22 votes
22. Champ Stuart (22) (A+) 36% of 25 votes
23. Michael Fulmer (22) (AA) 41% of 22 votes
24. Akeel Morris (22) A+ 31% of 26 votes

they non-tender EYJ that would "save" roughly 2.5 million (no idea if they do this) but I would. Assuming they tender Tejada (probably worth it at around 2 million even though he blows) and Parnell (this one is sort of questionable given his availability but all indications are they will) that's about 6 million. If they brought back Eveland and Carlyle at around 800 K that would give them 12 players under contract at roughly 80 million, so the "current" payroll would be

80 + 13 x 500K (roughly) or about 87 million. So I think Murphy is a goner and I'm sure they will look to move guys like Gee and Colon if they can save money.

In comment 11947830 Ira said:

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Mookie Betts will be expensive, but he should be worth it. He can hit, has some pop and very good speed. He could be the lead off hitter we've been missing since letting Reyes go.

Betts looks like a stud to me but I think the price would give most fans a heart attack. Thor would have to go as part of the deal 100% and then some. The goal needs to be finding guys like Dickerson and Brantley BEFORE they break out. Brantley was MVP caliber good this year (no exaggeration) but I can only imagine how little he would have cost talent wise pre-2014.

young players get done. The asking price for a Wheeler or DeGrom or for a Starling Castro would floor you. Then you get to Stanton, Harvey , McCutcheon, you would need a defibulator handy next to your phone

In comment 11947878 Headhunter said:

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young players get done. The asking price for a Wheeler or DeGrom or for a Starling Castro would floor you. Then you get to Stanton, Harvey , McCutcheon, you would need a defibulator handy next to your phone

Gotta find the guys pre-breakout or take a shot on a guy who might be able to breakout who showed some decent signs ala Travis Snider with the Pirates this year. Otherwise the price is going to be tough to swallow given the fact the Mets could/should be "in it" this year but aren't "WS" contenders on paper and likely won't be this year, tough to give up big time talent unless you are landing a proven stud. Guys like Betts are very rarely traded, offense is currently at a premium and Thor had a solid season but his stock is neutral.

in a blink of an eye it all can go into the toilet. Young controllable pitchers are like diamonds

give Sandy a call

as a trade partner. They have a ton of young offensive talent, but need pitching desperately. I know a lot of folks here are down on him, but I'd inquire about Sterling Castro.

Mets will surely call about Castro. Question is how much they would be willing to give up for him. Can't see him moved for anything less than 1 of Wheeler, Thor or deGrom as a headliner.

do believe they would deal Montero however. Not that they don't like him but I think given the right deal I think they deal a smallish RHP with good/not overwhelming stuff. Obviously they would prefer to deal one/some of the others but obviously Dillon Gee at 5 million, Jon Niese at 7 and Colon at 11 (and 42 years old) fetch a whole lot less.

Trying to move Colon's 11M goes without saying, but moving that other 11M, all of whom can be backfilled with league minimum players, is one of the keys to the offseason.

If they can fill a hole while shifting a lot of that 22M off the books, they will have a solid amount of financial flexibility to spend to improve the team elsewhere.

Getting a good leadoff hitter is important so I could see them a Victorino swap for some combo of the above, but that depends on the prognosis on his return from injury. I could see Gee in a trade for Brad Miller, or other young SS whose value isn't at it's peak. Castro would be a good addition but agree with Dan the price will be too high. CarGo is still a very interesting option, perhaps there's a package that can get him where they could save the bigger prospects and only part with a Plawecki/Montero type? Montero having pitched well in Vegas could make him an intriguing option for COL.

Castro only owed 13 million over the next 2 and 22 over the next 3 the Cubs can/will ask for a true bounty. Why wouldn't they? "Too much" depth? Imagine that as an argument to deal deGrom (far less proven at a deeper position no less) but imagine reading from a Brewers fan "why don't we deal our #3 prospect for deGrom, not our premium guys but the Mets have pitching depth so they will do it". I like to look at potential deals from the other teams point of view.

likely has very, very little trade value given his arbitration/season he is having but if they could get a B prospect for him I'd probably do it given the 5 million in savings they could use in better spots. Murphy I wouldn't "give away" despite his 8.1 or so million/Herrera but I suspect they shop him hard. 8.1 million is significant to the Mets.

awful OF FA market.



OF:
Tomas (24)- Huge deal
MCabrera (30) -60+ million
Cruz (34)- Big contract
Denorfia (34)- Terrible season, 35 in July, STILL likely could land 2 years if the money were low enough
Rasmus (28)- one of the few young FA, can land multi-years if he wants it
Aoki (33)
Markakis (31)- "Big" deal
Rios (34)- Could land multiple years but likely will take 1 to "fix" value
Hunter (39)- Could land multiple years but says he doesn't want that
Ichiro (41)- Ancient

and those are the cream of the crop guys too

Ridiculously small sample size but still caught my eye. Rasmus vs. the NL this year (15 games)

.358/.414/.849.

seeing articles/quotes about Dominic Smith working out like a madman and coming into camp in amazing shape. He was a real disappointment last year and a lot of the rap against him was that he didn't appear to be in great shape.

I'd offer Thor + Herrera for Betts (with the plan being to extend Murphy).

would the Sox do with Herrera? They have Pedroia locked up through 2021.

he being serious? lol

keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 56s56 seconds ago

I'll be playing in a Smashing Pumpkins cover band tonight at @RybrewCafe in Philly's Brewerytown: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=307564942774791 �

In comment 11947979 DanMetroMan said:

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would the Sox do with Herrera? They have Pedroia locked up through 2021.

Really? I did not know that. I was udner the impression that Pedrioa was breaking down. That's not a good contract (although I guess they can point at Wright and say the same thing after last year).

In comment 11947982 Metnut said:

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In comment 11947979 DanMetroMan said: Quote: would the Sox do with Herrera? They have Pedroia locked up through 2021. Really? I did not know that. I was udner the impression that Pedrioa was breaking down. That's not a good contract (although I guess they can point at Wright and say the same thing after last year).

Pedroia certainly looks like he's in decline but he has 7 years left on his contract and is actually YOUNGER than Wright by a little bit. Sox also have Coyle who is a Herrera caliber prospect himself. Don't think Herrera is of interest to the Sox.

In comment 11947915 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Mets will surely call about Castro. Question is how much they would be willing to give up for him. Can't see him moved for anything less than 1 of Wheeler, Thor or deGrom as a headliner.

Agreed. Mets aren't getting a legit bat without giving up a premium piece. The Cubs need a lot of pitching, so a Thor and a lesser pitching prospect or 2 might pique their interest. Theo is a savvy trade partner though. Like Sandy, he's not going to be on the losing end of a deal.

Of the FA OF's, I agree Dan, Rasmus is the only one who really interests me.

In comment 11947888 Section331 said:

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as a trade partner. They have a ton of young offensive talent, but need pitching desperately. I know a lot of folks here are down on him, but I'd inquire about Sterling Castro.

What about the Pirates? I'd look to get an OFer from them. Maybe Marte.

In comment 11948001 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

In comment 11947888 Section331 said: Quote: as a trade partner. They have a ton of young offensive talent, but need pitching desperately. I know a lot of folks here are down on him, but I'd inquire about Sterling Castro. What about the Pirates? I'd look to get an OFer from them. Maybe Marte.

Pirates are LOADED in the OF but Marte has an amazing contract, is young and had an MVP caliber second half. Asking price most certainly is 2 of Wheeler/deGrom/Thor. His contract alone makes him a ridiculous value.

including prospects have 8-9 potential MLB regulars in the OF. Really crazy depth. Snider is the realistic target for me from them (of the big leaguers).

second half .348/.408/.576-.975 OPS, will play all of 2015 at 26 years old and the Pirates own his rights through 2021.

Cant trade Lagares. As it stands we're slated to have below average to poor defenders at C, 2B, SS, and an aging 3B who was injured last year. Need to give these pitchers some plus defense if they are going to anchor our rise to contention.

I want no part of the FA position players (you could talk me into a Lester or Scherzer followed by a trade of a SP). Explosion of TV money and GMs rolling the dice on long term deals for arb-eligible players (a no-lose proposition for GMs when you think about it; lose your star and you're fired anyway) mean that red-flag free 28 year olds are just not hitting the FA market. Instead you get the clear downside-of-the-career guys. Im also convinced that the prior era of useful FAs was largely driven by steroids, which extended the peak performance window and also let guys have a little more confidence that they could get to UFA before injuries set in.

In comment 11948006 DanMetroMan said:

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including prospects have 8-9 potential MLB regulars in the OF. Really crazy depth. Snider is the realistic target for me from them (of the big leaguers).

Yeah, then target someone else, any chance they trade McCutchen? He has a good contract too (for him), but comparatively speaking much higher than their other options. THAT would be making a splash.

In comment 11948011 Deej said:

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Cant trade Lagares. As it stands we're slated to have below average to poor defenders at C, 2B, SS, and an aging 3B who was injured last year. Need to give these pitchers some plus defense if they are going to anchor our rise to contention. I want no part of the FA position players (you could talk me into a Lester or Scherzer followed by a trade of a SP). Explosion of TV money and GMs rolling the dice on long term deals for arb-eligible players (a no-lose proposition for GMs when you think about it; lose your star and you're fired anyway) mean that red-flag free 28 year olds are just not hitting the FA market. Instead you get the clear downside-of-the-career guys. Im also convinced that the prior era of useful FAs was largely driven by steroids, which extended the peak performance window and also let guys have a little more confidence that they could get to UFA before injuries set in.

Shecky may be my favorite Mets fan on this site but I don't agree with him at all on Lagares. Sure, if the Marlins knocked their heads and insisted on Lagares as part of a Stanton deal he would be gone tomorrow but teams just don't give up good CO for CF's who are defensive value only (which is what Lagares currently is). He's an AMAZING CF, in fact I'd say he's top 10 I've ever seen (granted I've only been watching baseball since 85-86). But the skillset is still undervalued.

if they traded McCutcheon. They LOVE him there.

In comment 11948020 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

In comment 11948006 DanMetroMan said: Quote: including prospects have 8-9 potential MLB regulars in the OF. Really crazy depth. Snider is the realistic target for me from them (of the big leaguers). Yeah, then target someone else, any chance they trade McCutchen? He has a good contract too (for him), but comparatively speaking much higher than their other options. THAT would be making a splash.

I don't see any way they would deal him. He's their golden boy and Dave Cameron suggested he was top 5 most valuable trade assets in baseball (I think #3 in fact). The Pirates are no longer "cheap" and have a pretty bright future. McCutchen likely costs MORE than Stanton in a trade since his new team would have him through 2018 vs. Stanton through 2016.


But their OF depth throughout the organization is nuts
Polanco, McCutchen, Marte, Harrison can play out there, Snider and then in the minors they have Bell, Meadows, Harold Ramirez, Willy Garcia, JaCoby Jones can play out there (and likely ends up out there), Barnes

really like Snider as a target. Former HUGE prospect aka talent has always been there. .776 OPS in 140 games this year, will only be 27, team controlled through 2016.

McCutchen is probably a top 3 player in all of baseball right now. The cost for him in a trade would be astronomical. They wouldn't do it anyway. He's their David Wright.. except he's younger, better and is a ridiculous bargain for another 3-4 years

price would be one of those ridiculous deals where you unload most of your assets all in one fell swoop ie Thor, Wheeler, deGrom, Nimmo and Herrera. It would have to be an offer so good that the Pirates could sell it to their fanbase AND so good they couldn't reasonably say no.

from them then. They just can't play all those guys and having them hang around longer just lessens their value, because realistically while they're all good prospects, they all won't pan out.

I said I think Snider is the guy you have a shot to pry away. I think they view Polanco McCutchen and Marte as their OF for the next 4-5 years and Harrison so far is a 1 year wonder who can play all over the field and is cheap so no issue with keeping him as well. Garcia is at least a year away

folks disagree with me about its importance, but I'd still make an effort to pad our bullpen. I love our arms right now, but I love what the Royals did this year out of the pen. If we can add a power lefty and then move montero from the right side, i think we can have a super dynamic bullpen. This is an addition, not in lieu of, adding a big bat in left field.

Adams from MLBTR says he's heard from Sox sources that Betts is "100% untouchable" unless it's part of a deal for a young superstar (as the should be).

In comment 11948107 CMicks3110 said:

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folks disagree with me about its importance, but I'd still make an effort to pad our bullpen. I love our arms right now, but I love what the Royals did this year out of the pen. If we can add a power lefty and then move montero from the right side, i think we can have a super dynamic bullpen. This is an addition, not in lieu of, adding a big bat in left field.

Scouts don't believe Montero is suited for the pen. Unlike Mejia/Familia he doesn't have blow you away stuff or a plus breaker. He's more valuable as a trade chip if he's not starting.

do you like Andrew Miller, would you want the Mets to pursue him?

In comment 11948124 CMicks3110 said:

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do you like Andrew Miller, would you want the Mets to pursue him?

I think Miller is fantastic. I don't think he fits into the Mets budget. He's going to be marketed as the best available reliever/closer (even though he hasn't really closed). MLBTR projects 4 years 32 million, I've seen others project 4 for 40 if he's a closer.

In comment 11948107 CMicks3110 said:

Quote:

folks disagree with me about its importance, but I'd still make an effort to pad our bullpen. I love our arms right now, but I love what the Royals did this year out of the pen. If we can add a power lefty and then move montero from the right side, i think we can have a super dynamic bullpen. This is an addition, not in lieu of, adding a big bat in left field.

I don't think anyone disagrees with you about its importance, but many believe the Mets already have the pieces to make a dominant bullpen. The 8-9th inning combo of Familia/Mejia was pretty damn good last year, add in Parnell, Matz, etc, and there are more than enough options to have an outstanding pen.

This team needs bats.

Mazzoni I can see as a bullpen guy.

1. OF (LFer specifically)
2. SS
3. upgrade bats elsewhere - could be bench, could be 2B
4. Something else
5. Another thing
6. Bullpen

In comment 11948031 DanMetroMan said:

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really like Snider as a target. Former HUGE prospect aka talent has always been there. .776 OPS in 140 games this year, will only be 27, team controlled through 2016.

If we can get Snider for a Mazzoni/Verrett-type that might be interesting. We have a surplus of arms who could work out of the pen

I just dont trust Wilmer's d there long term. He'll be passable at best. With our pitching staff (Wheeler in particular), I want a plus defender at SS. And if we get a SS, I'd feel confident moving Murphy and trusting that Wilmer, Herrera, Reynolds etc will ably fill the position for years to come.

LF (or RF, since Grandy was a terrible RF) seems like a bigger priority, but I think you can piece together ABs there more credibly and I like Nimmo/Conforto there for 2016 much more than I like our SSs in 2016.

has Mejia at 2.5 million


2.5 for Mejia would put us at 73.89 + Parnell, EYJ, Tejada, Carlyle, Eveland + 500K for every other player not under contract.