The Mariners are all in for Victor Martinez - 4 years @ $18m per.. they like him more than Cruz and he's less $. They are also gonna try to lock up Kyle Seager but he wants Freddie Freeman $.
Doesn't change the fact that no one here gives a shit about the Mariners, nor is anyone impressed that you fancy yourself a Mariners asshat. I'm sure there are Mariner boards where that information would be of interest, yet for some reason you post it here.
Would be a big get and that is a lot of money for a player at his age who only plays Dh and who has has serious knee surgery recently. Ortiz has to be thinking wtf.
The OP proceeds to post a MLB FA rumor, and gets shit. I am confused why we are giving him a hard time. He is a mariners fan and has Mariners info. I appreciate that. Keep up the good work and thank you. All rumors are fun at this point, and go to show what current market rates juts might be this offseason. I think that's too much for V-Mart, but he has been insane for the last two years.
Jairo Heredia and Pat Venditte are the notables. Rondon and Turley are FAs as well but likely to resign. Carmen Angelini is a FA but I would expect him back as it is a bare cupboard at SS north of A-ball.
RE: RE: Seattle doesn't even care about the Mariners
wonders whether the Yanks would have enough to get it done, re Castro? Come on now. The Yanks aren't on the level of the Cubs or Sox, in terms of prospects, but they get completely dismissed far too often. They've got enough to land Castro, the question is really, SHOULD they.
wonders whether the Yanks would have enough to get it done, re Castro? Come on now. The Yanks aren't on the level of the Cubs or Sox, in terms of prospects, but they get completely dismissed far too often. They've got enough to land Castro, the question is really, SHOULD they.
Yeah they could manage it, but it seems like they're banking on Severino and Judge. While they're probably open to dealing prospects, even good ones, I doubt they ship out their two best trade chips when they're not a player away. I don't watch Castro enough to give a decent take on his defense, negative WAR but that's not the most reliable metric for rating glove work, and the offense is very good. At 24 he probably isn't done improving either, though his speed game has already diminished.
Other than Heyward, JUp will bring the best haul. Ridding themselves of a good chunk of BJ's contract, and with Uggla coming off the books they could afford to keep both guys if they wanted.
Yanks resign Andrew Bailey to a minor league deal...
actually a pretty nice signing. He wasn't far enough along in his rehab to contribute last year but he could factor into the pen this year as he should be fully healthy. If he's anything approximating his pre-injury effectiveness he would be a big addition. Link - ( New Window )
my prediction is a big Heyward extension, trading Justin Upton for a prospect haul, trading Gattis :( for prospects, and reluctantly having to package someone like Mike Minor in order to get rid of BJ Upton.
and mentions JUp and Heyward as kinda sorta maybe being available. Dude knows how to puts the word out without putting the word out (or something).
Quote:
"We are coming in with the idea that we don't have to trade anybody," Hart said. "We have not made a call (to see if a team is interested in any player). We have received calls on people; we haven't had any conversations yet. That (Gattis rumor) is absolutely inaccurate. And quite frankly, I think anybody that says that - if you look, I've got two corner outfielders who've got one year left (before free agency), and I've got one potential corner outfielder (Gattis) that's got four years left (under contractual control)."
Sweeny Murti @YankeesWFAN 1m1 minute ago
Yankees signed LHP Jose De Paula. Career minor leaguer. 4-3, 4.21 ERA in 16 appearances (10 starts) for Triple-A Fresno (SFG) in 2014.
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS 3m3 minutes ago Mesa, AZ
alexei ramirez said to be more likely ss alternative than elvis andrus for yankees, tho nothing's close w/either at moment
long term 2 years ago. now they would have to pay double to keep him. however, if no team wants to give him that kind of contract maybe the market comes down and the yankees can get him closer to their terms.
I think Robertson's agent is not doing well for him
Seriously- most big market teams have their closers- the Red Sox, the Dodgers- and the Yanks have Betances as a Plan B.
The Mets COULD get involved, as they already lost their first rounder, and would only lose a second- but it hasn't been their MO to spend big in recent years.
The Cubs are not contenders yet, and need SP, not closers. The White Sox are not contenders yet- and have bigger needs in the OF.
Outside of those teams, who is seriously going to pony up $12-13M per, plus the draft pick, for Robertson?
The Nats have their own FA to worry about over the next 2 years, the Tigers might- but have issues with their OF that need prioritization, the Giants are good at closer, so are the Phils, the Braves, the Pirates, the Reds, the Angels, the Os and the Ms. Have I missed any contenders or near contenders? I know I left the A's out- but it is HIGHLY unlikely the A's go big in the FA market for Robertson.
In short, unless the Tigers get desperate or the White Sox decide they are ready to make a playoff run, there really is not a clear landing spot at the $$$ he wants.
RE: I think Robertson's agent is not doing well for him
Seriously- most big market teams have their closers- the Red Sox, the Dodgers- and the Yanks have Betances as a Plan B.
The Mets COULD get involved, as they already lost their first rounder, and would only lose a second- but it hasn't been their MO to spend big in recent years.
The Cubs are not contenders yet, and need SP, not closers. The White Sox are not contenders yet- and have bigger needs in the OF.
Outside of those teams, who is seriously going to pony up $12-13M per, plus the draft pick, for Robertson?
The Nats have their own FA to worry about over the next 2 years, the Tigers might- but have issues with their OF that need prioritization, the Giants are good at closer, so are the Phils, the Braves, the Pirates, the Reds, the Angels, the Os and the Ms. Have I missed any contenders or near contenders? I know I left the A's out- but it is HIGHLY unlikely the A's go big in the FA market for Robertson.
In short, unless the Tigers get desperate or the White Sox decide they are ready to make a playoff run, there really is not a clear landing spot at the $$$ he wants.
Teams are nothing if not copycats. The Royals "proved" that you can win if the only above average piece your team has is a shutdown pen, while the Tigers proved that even if your only glaring flaw is the pen you can still come up short. I'd be surprised if Robertson settled for less than 3/30 and even that strikes me as unlikely.
Red Sox reportedly willing to go $100 mil+ on Sandoval...
especially if he wants more than 4 years... only position player in recent memory that regularly gets fatter as the season goes on, you don't pay that guy 100+ into his mid 30s.
they sign Sandoval, that has disaster written all over it
Agreed. It boggles my mind that anyone is going to give Tubbo that kind of money. Been a meh hitter for three seasons now, is a mediocre third baseman, and guys that fat tend not to age well. 29 was Prince Fielder's age when he started to hit the skids two seasons ago.
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd 3m3 minutes ago
Another crazy note via a scout from the Moncada workout in Guatemala: Scott Boras had two reps there, both were escorted out by armed guard.
Marc Carig @MarcCarig 14m14 minutes ago
"Boras has been shopping near the meat section. That's where he gets his bullshit." - Sandy Alderson
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan 3m3 minutes ago
Sources: Orioles and Nick Markakis have made significant progress on a four-year deal. Been talking about $10-12M a year. Should get done.
RE: Also Hamels is apparently asking to be dealt...
want Hamels and may try to sign Hanley Ramirez to play 3rd. They would like to resign Lester, but Boston writers are pessimistic.
Red Sox are unwilling to give up Betts/Bogaerts. If thats the case, they better be ready to give up Swihart, Owens, Holt, and Kelly.
It'll be straight up for JBJ, that's how Amaro rolls.
If I had to guess I'd say they probably sign Sandoval to play 3B and one of the top pitchers to add to their rotation. They have the trade chips, I'm not sure they are going to part with them for a guy like Hamels who at 31 (Opening Day) is probably more of a finishing touch than a building block.
dominant last year. His year really flew under the radar.
Hamels had a superb year. My point was simply that Boston is likely building with a 2-3 horizon in mind, and in 2-3 years Hamels will have a fair amount of tread on his tires. Scherzer, for instance, is not actually much younger but has about three years less (550 IP) major league tread on his tires. Lester isn't as far behind as Scherzer is. But if Boston was going to put a bunch of money into an arm this offseason Scherzer would be a safer bet, and you hang onto your prospects.
dominant last year. His year really flew under the radar.
Hamels had a superb year. My point was simply that Boston is likely building with a 2-3 horizon in mind, and in 2-3 years Hamels will have a fair amount of tread on his tires. Scherzer, for instance, is not actually much younger but has about three years less (550 IP) major league tread on his tires. Lester isn't as far behind as Scherzer is. But if Boston was going to put a bunch of money into an arm this offseason Scherzer would be a safer bet, and you hang onto your prospects.
Hamels contract will be much more friendly though.
I do admit, I would rather see the Cubs trade for Hamels. The idea of getting Russell/Soler as the building blocks is quite exciting. I wouldnt be shocked if Theo goes for both Hamels and Lester. With Castro, Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Alacantra among other young talent... it wont be long before they are competing if they get some SP.
In comment 11977156 dep026 said:
[quote] In comment 11977152 Dunedin81 said:
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In comment 11977133 dep026 said:
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dominant last year. His year really flew under the radar.
Hamels had a superb year. My point was simply that Boston is likely building with a 2-3 horizon in mind, and in 2-3 years Hamels will have a fair amount of tread on his tires. Scherzer, for instance, is not actually much younger but has about three years less (550 IP) major league tread on his tires. Lester isn't as far behind as Scherzer is. But if Boston was going to put a bunch of money into an arm this offseason Scherzer would be a safer bet, and you hang onto your prospects.
Hamels contract will be much more friendly though.
I do admit, I would rather see the Cubs trade for Hamels. The idea of getting Russell/Soler as the building blocks is quite exciting. I wouldnt be shocked if Theo goes for both Hamels and Lester. With Castro, Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Alacantra among other young talent... it wont be long before they are competing if they get some SP. [/quote
You are severely overrating Hamels trade value. The Cubs wouldn't give you Russell or Soler straight up for Hamels, never mind both of them. Hamels trade value is not that.
Hamels has 4 years left at 90 million.... both Schrezer and Lester will command more years at possibly a higher rate. He is one of the 10 best pitchers in baseball. He is proven, a playoff performer, and at 31 is still in the prime of his career.
If the Cubs want him, they are going to have to give up at least a mixture of Russell, Soler, McKinney, Edwards, or Alacantra. Bryant is untouchable. ANd if they dont, they have no shot of getting him.
Samardzija brought back Russell and he's a. not as good and b. only a 16-month rental. The deal for Hamels is probably slightly under-market at this point and you'll probably get at least 2-3 years of elite pitching out of him, barring injury. As I said I think he's more attractive to a team that believes itself close, but he has a ton of trade value.
BA had an interesting wrinkle in the Moncada sweepstakes...
this is the time when all the best 2015 talent starts getting handshake agreements in advance of 7/2. If a team wants to sign Moncada and he is eligible before 6/15/15 they'll go into the penalty for this signing period (if they're not already there) and lose the ability to sign players for the next two years to contracts over $300K. So it's a strange dynamic.
He is signed for 4 more years at essentially 24MM per year. You are getting all the negative year values of his contract by WAR/year, and giving up a top prospect for it. On top of that, the market is there if you want to spend 24MM per year for a top starter, you have 3 guys who will give you roughly the same value, some with a lot less wear on their arms and without the injury history Hamels has. Never mind the fact that Hamels has a vesting option for a 5th year, the contract is not some kind of bargain. It simply makes no sense to give up a guy like Russell, a top 5 prospect in all of baseball at its most premium position, for Hamels.
Additionally, Samardzija might be a worse pitcher then Hamels, but there is plenty of evidence that you will get more in season in a trade to a contender, as well as even more evidence that top starters aren't worth all that much in trade value. You should be looking at the A's deal as an outlier of a GM going all in because he can't financially do it otherwise, rather then the true value of a starter. The Cubs are flush with cash, and if they really valued that arm more then the SS, why wouldn't they have just kept Samardzija who has 1100 less innings on his arm and will cost a lot less?
Look at what Price got or Fister got in the trade market. Lester was traded for almost nothing. Again, the contract for Hamels isn't really a positive here, he's getting market value for the next couple of years then will be overpaid, its the same as signing any free agent.
The one caveat to this is if the Phillies kick in a bunch of money to the contract, but so far all signs point to they haven't been willing to do that.
Don't get me wrong- I love Hamels, he's a great pitcher, definitely a top 15 starter in baseball if not a good amount higher, I just don't see the precedent for the trade market in giving up a Russell for Hamels.
RE: BA had an interesting wrinkle in the Moncada sweepstakes...
this is the time when all the best 2015 talent starts getting handshake agreements in advance of 7/2. If a team wants to sign Moncada and he is eligible before 6/15/15 they'll go into the penalty for this signing period (if they're not already there) and lose the ability to sign players for the next two years to contracts over $300K. So it's a strange dynamic.
Yanks and Red Sox are already past that penalty though, so expect some bids from those 2 at least.
If you were getting the age 35-39 years of his contract I'd agree...
but he'll be 34 or 35 when he's a free agent. As I said above he does have some tread on his tires but because of his age when he signed this contract you're not really getting the over the hill years.
RE: RE: BA had an interesting wrinkle in the Moncada sweepstakes...
this is the time when all the best 2015 talent starts getting handshake agreements in advance of 7/2. If a team wants to sign Moncada and he is eligible before 6/15/15 they'll go into the penalty for this signing period (if they're not already there) and lose the ability to sign players for the next two years to contracts over $300K. So it's a strange dynamic.
Yanks and Red Sox are already past that penalty though, so expect some bids from those 2 at least.
I flipping hope so, there isn't a good reason not to be in on the kid if, as Hal apparently said this week, they could break even with twice the payroll they've got now.
I wasn't even talking about the Stanton contract as absurd, really
I'm talking about fairly average players like Chase Headley possibly getting 4/$50 mill contracts. It's ludicrous, and it's even more ludicrous with the dipshit luxury tax.
RE: If you were getting the age 35-39 years of his contract I'd agree...
but he'll be 34 or 35 when he's a free agent. As I said above he does have some tread on his tires but because of his age when he signed this contract you're not really getting the over the hill years.
You aren't getting the surplus value in his contract though, thats for sure. Why would you give up a top 5 prospect in baseball to get the less valuable years of a pitchers contract when you can sign a pitcher without doing so?
RE: I wasn't even talking about the Stanton contract as absurd, really
I'm talking about fairly average players like Chase Headley possibly getting 4/$50 mill contracts. It's ludicrous, and it's even more ludicrous with the dipshit luxury tax.
It is pretty high but the players are the product, and so for elite talent who has dealt with pre-arb and early arb salaries I don't get that animated about even $10-$12 for serviceable players because you're talking about revenue streams in the hundreds of millions of dollars and a prime of unrestricted earnings of maybe 4-5 years, tops.
He is signed for 4 more years at essentially 24MM per year. You are getting all the negative year values of his contract by WAR/year, and giving up a top prospect for it. On top of that, the market is there if you want to spend 24MM per year for a top starter, you have 3 guys who will give you roughly the same value, some with a lot less wear on their arms and without the injury history Hamels has. Never mind the fact that Hamels has a vesting option for a 5th year, the contract is not some kind of bargain. It simply makes no sense to give up a guy like Russell, a top 5 prospect in all of baseball at its most premium position, for Hamels.
Additionally, Samardzija might be a worse pitcher then Hamels, but there is plenty of evidence that you will get more in season in a trade to a contender, as well as even more evidence that top starters aren't worth all that much in trade value. You should be looking at the A's deal as an outlier of a GM going all in because he can't financially do it otherwise, rather then the true value of a starter. The Cubs are flush with cash, and if they really valued that arm more then the SS, why wouldn't they have just kept Samardzija who has 1100 less innings on his arm and will cost a lot less?
Look at what Price got or Fister got in the trade market. Lester was traded for almost nothing. Again, the contract for Hamels isn't really a positive here, he's getting market value for the next couple of years then will be overpaid, its the same as signing any free agent.
The one caveat to this is if the Phillies kick in a bunch of money to the contract, but so far all signs point to they haven't been willing to do that.
Don't get me wrong- I love Hamels, he's a great pitcher, definitely a top 15 starter in baseball if not a good amount higher, I just don't see the precedent for the trade market in giving up a Russell for Hamels.
You make a lot of good points, but I think the Cubs can and should afford to take on Hamels contract even though it will result in a negtive WAR. They are in a unique situation where their positional players will all put up a positive WAR since they are all on really good contracts or cheap. There is no reason for the Cubs not to progess to the point where they arent in the playoff picture in a few years. They need SP. And they need an ace.
They are eventually going to have to trade someone because you cant have Baez, Bryant, Russell, and Castro - my guess is they try to trade Castro, but wind up trading Russell for that stud pitcher.
Lets just say they trade Russell, Alcantra, McKinney and Edwards for say Hamels/Ruiz. They will have Rizzo, Baez, Castro, Bryant in the IF. Soler/Lake/and a guys name who is slipping my mind. Then you sign Lester, and all of a sudden you have a very very interesting team.
You make a lot of good points, but I think the Cubs can and should afford to take on Hamels contract even though it will result in a negtive WAR. They are in a unique situation where their positional players will all put up a positive WAR since they are all on really good contracts or cheap. There is no reason for the Cubs not to progess to the point where they arent in the playoff picture in a few years. They need SP. And they need an ace.
They are eventually going to have to trade someone because you cant have Baez, Bryant, Russell, and Castro - my guess is they try to trade Castro, but wind up trading Russell for that stud pitcher.
Lets just say they trade Russell, Alcantra, McKinney and Edwards for say Hamels/Ruiz. They will have Rizzo, Baez, Castro, Bryant in the IF. Soler/Lake/and a guys name who is slipping my mind. Then you sign Lester, and all of a sudden you have a very very interesting team.
Few things here:
1) WAR has nothing to do with contract at all. You are greatly misunderstanding what WAR is if you think its weighted by what a player is paid.
2) That would literally be an overpay of Mark Texiera proportions. There is no deal available even remotely close to the one you are proposing. You are asking for their, according to BP, #1 and #6 prospect, plus Alcantra who is #7 on the under 25 list(and Mckinney isn't even ranked on under 25, so Alcantra would be their #4 prospect according to BP) plus a good arm in Edwards for Hamels and a 35 year old catcher? It would easily be one of the single worst trades in MLB history.
3) They don't HAVE to do anything. Bryant can move to RF, Russell to 3rd, Alcantra can be a super utility guy, The Cubs aren't going to make a trade just because.
4) Again, if they need an ace, they can go out and sign one. Need two? Go sign two. What is the rush? They can be the youngest team in baseball for a few years, while still being competitive, without trading just to trade.
5) Russell isn't going anywhere, end of story. The most likely player to be dealt is Baez, simply because he's got the biggest bust potential, but he also is a potential mega star.
You make a lot of good points, but I think the Cubs can and should afford to take on Hamels contract even though it will result in a negtive WAR. They are in a unique situation where their positional players will all put up a positive WAR since they are all on really good contracts or cheap. There is no reason for the Cubs not to progess to the point where they arent in the playoff picture in a few years. They need SP. And they need an ace.
They are eventually going to have to trade someone because you cant have Baez, Bryant, Russell, and Castro - my guess is they try to trade Castro, but wind up trading Russell for that stud pitcher.
Lets just say they trade Russell, Alcantra, McKinney and Edwards for say Hamels/Ruiz. They will have Rizzo, Baez, Castro, Bryant in the IF. Soler/Lake/and a guys name who is slipping my mind. Then you sign Lester, and all of a sudden you have a very very interesting team.
Few things here:
1) WAR has nothing to do with contract at all. You are greatly misunderstanding what WAR is if you think its weighted by what a player is paid.
2) That would literally be an overpay of Mark Texiera proportions. There is no deal available even remotely close to the one you are proposing. You are asking for their, according to BP, #1 and #6 prospect, plus Alcantra who is #7 on the under 25 list(and Mckinney isn't even ranked on under 25, so Alcantra would be their #4 prospect according to BP) plus a good arm in Edwards for Hamels and a 35 year old catcher? It would easily be one of the single worst trades in MLB history.
3) They don't HAVE to do anything. Bryant can move to RF, Russell to 3rd, Alcantra can be a super utility guy, The Cubs aren't going to make a trade just because.
4) Again, if they need an ace, they can go out and sign one. Need two? Go sign two. What is the rush? They can be the youngest team in baseball for a few years, while still being competitive, without trading just to trade.
5) Russell isn't going anywhere, end of story. The most likely player to be dealt is Baez, simply because he's got the biggest bust potential, but he also is a potential mega star.
Believe it or not, I have actually have read up a lot on some WAR statistics in regards to salary on another website. Very informative stuff. Any any large contract you sign more often than not turns into a negative.
The one thing I did for get to add is that if they trade Hamels/Ruiz, they would have to take on money. Huge oversihgt on my part, but if they ate say 50-60 million of the combined contracts, then you could ask for more prospects.
The one thing I disagree with you on is that they could just sign stud pitchers. Well they "could", but doesnt mean they will/can. Schrezer/Lester may want to stay in the AL. What if the Yankees or Sox offer more money? The one thing a lot of Phillies fans agree on is that they should not trade Hamels until Schrezer/Lester sign. Because if Boston/Cubs miss out on both, they may want to add pieces to the puzzle.
So back to the Cubs - they have a lot of desirable players. This much we agree upon. Now I am only basing it off from what I have heard. But I have heard that..
Bryant - untouchable
Soler - nearly untouchable
Russell - Need to be blown away.
Now guys like Edwards, Alacantra, and Mckinney will in be discussions for if they do trade for a stud pitcher. Now the Phillies are serious contenders for Tomas. So if they sign him, they wont need Alacnatra. But if the Cubs do want Hamels, and reports are that they seriously do... They are going to have to give up 1 of their big 3. And I think Russell is the one they will give up. I would prefer Soler because the Phillies have a SS coming up in 2 year to take Rollins spot.
But a trade of hypothetically being Soler/Edwards/McKinney is not out of realm of possibilities. You're right that the Cubs dont have to trade any of them. I hope the Phillies are in the mindset as well. They dont have to trade Hamels this offseason. They have him for at least 4 more years. Thats why if the ydo trade him this winter, they should get a substantial return - because why trade him if you dont have too right away? (Amaro jokes aside)
Believe it or not, I have actually have read up a lot on some WAR statistics in regards to salary on another website. Very informative stuff. Any any large contract you sign more often than not turns into a negative.
The one thing I did for get to add is that if they trade Hamels/Ruiz, they would have to take on money. Huge oversihgt on my part, but if they ate say 50-60 million of the combined contracts, then you could ask for more prospects.
The one thing I disagree with you on is that they could just sign stud pitchers. Well they "could", but doesnt mean they will/can. Schrezer/Lester may want to stay in the AL. What if the Yankees or Sox offer more money? The one thing a lot of Phillies fans agree on is that they should not trade Hamels until Schrezer/Lester sign. Because if Boston/Cubs miss out on both, they may want to add pieces to the puzzle.
So back to the Cubs - they have a lot of desirable players. This much we agree upon. Now I am only basing it off from what I have heard. But I have heard that..
Bryant - untouchable
Soler - nearly untouchable
Russell - Need to be blown away.
Now guys like Edwards, Alacantra, and Mckinney will in be discussions for if they do trade for a stud pitcher. Now the Phillies are serious contenders for Tomas. So if they sign him, they wont need Alacnatra. But if the Cubs do want Hamels, and reports are that they seriously do... They are going to have to give up 1 of their big 3. And I think Russell is the one they will give up. I would prefer Soler because the Phillies have a SS coming up in 2 year to take Rollins spot.
But a trade of hypothetically being Soler/Edwards/McKinney is not out of realm of possibilities. You're right that the Cubs dont have to trade any of them. I hope the Phillies are in the mindset as well. They dont have to trade Hamels this offseason. They have him for at least 4 more years. Thats why if the ydo trade him this winter, they should get a substantial return - because why trade him if you dont have too right away? (Amaro jokes aside)
You are misunderstanding the relationship between WAR and salary. Salary is not included in the WAR calculation. The relationship is that a 1 WAR player is worth roughly 7MM in free agency. If you are paying a 3 war player 15 million, then you are underpaying that player relative to WAR. Over the life of a contract, say Cole Hamels contract at 6/144, the player has produce more then the rough value of the WAR related for the contract to be considered a positive value contract.
So for example, Hamels 144 would need to have roughly 20 WAR over his contract to be worth its value. In the 2 years the contract has been going, he has produced 7.9 FWAR. That would mean, over the next 4 years of his contract, he would need to average 3 FWAR per year for the contract to be considered having produce excess value.
The problem with then dealing for the contract, is that regression is more likely then progression, as it has for the last 4 years in a row. So while he is likely to produce positive value over the LIFETIME of the contract, that value has already occurred. Hamels has lost roughly .3 FWAR each year in the last 3 years. If you extrapolate that over the next 4 years, by the time the contract is in its final season, without the option, meaning he will be overpaid relative to the value of 1 WAR.
In other words, in 2013 and 2014, Hamels was underpaid. In 2015 and 2016 he probably will be roughly paid accurately. In 2017 and 2018, he will be overpaid.
This is why his contract is a negative. The excess value in a contract is in the early years. The Phillies have already extracted the value of the contract, and in future years it will be an overpay. The Cubs aren't going to overpay in prospects while overpaying on a contract as well.
Its also why pre free agent years are so valuable for teams.
To put in context, when Mike Trout signed his extension, he had been worth 20.6 FWAR. Based on the 7MM per WAR calculation, those 2 years were worth 140MM alone.
The idea of a Soler straight up for Hamels trade MIGHT have some semblance of reality. Ruiz has no value to the Cubs.
Again though, the Phillies would still have to kick in some serious dollars for that to even be considered, and the Cubs certainly wouldn't have to add in any other players.
Yeah but that assumes the past is like the present...
and that the value of WAR is constant (a 3 WAR player vs a 5 WAR player, how much rarer is the latter than the former). I'm not sure that with the changes to the way business has been done recently those assumptions hold true.
RE: Yeah but that assumes the past is like the present...
and that the value of WAR is constant (a 3 WAR player vs a 5 WAR player, how much rarer is the latter than the former). I'm not sure that with the changes to the way business has been done recently those assumptions hold true.
Sure, parts of it will change but really just the prices will change. There are studies done in terms of team building, and some think its better to spend the money on 2 3 WAR players then 1 6 WAR player and 1 0 WAR player, and then some that say the opposite.
Regardless, Hamels is far more likely to be a 3 or less WAR player at age 34 then a 5 WAR player, no?
But B-WAR uses RA9 and F-WAR uses FIP in its calculations, so they end up with different values. On the positional player side, B-WAR uses total zone and F-WAR uses UZR for its defensive stats, and they both use different metrics for running as well.
Really though, most front offices are using their own proprietary systems that aren't available to the public, as they have access to a bunch of stuff we don't. Except the Phillies, they don't believe in saber metrics.
love this deal for the Rays. Hellickson is so overrated it's insane. He's a below average MLB starter for his career and they got 2 legit young prospects
love this deal for the Rays. Hellickson is so overrated it's insane. He's a below average MLB starter for his career and they got 2 legit young prospects
quick sandy call Arizona and offer flores and Montero for owings
basing this on very, very little (just quotes) and this trade but I have a feeling Stewart will end up a shitty GM. I just get the vibe he's a "I'll do whatever I damn well please" GM
He lickcome is overrated. But is it such a terrible deal when a team trades its 12th and 14th prospect for a major league starting pitcher? Two A ball players? If they were near major league ready guys, different story, but A ballets are lottery tickets.
Problem is Sandy is actually trying to acquire major leaguers for the Gee's and Colons. If he shot lower, he'd move them too.
A Grandy (perhaps pus Colon or Gee) for Andrus trade? Salary offset for the next 3-4 years and a quality SS comes in while getting rid of a future headache contract ourselves. While keeping our prospects to develop/trade.
Fangraphs article on a potential Hamels to Red Sox deal
. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-design-a-red-sox-cole-hamels-trade/ - ( New Window )
Well there is no way the Phillies do a deal with anyways and if they did the Red Sox would get ab absolute steal. A proven ace is worth more than prospects in the 10-20 range.
Red Sox will be off the table anyways, since they are about to sign Lester anyways.
. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-design-a-red-sox-cole-hamels-trade/ - ( New Window )
Well there is no way the Phillies do a deal with anyways and if they did the Red Sox would get ab absolute steal. A proven ace is worth more than prospects in the 10-20 range.
Hamels is only worth what teams are willing to offer for him. He's good, but he gets paid like a good pitcher. Why give up a bigtime prospect for Hamels when you can pay a bit more and get one of the premuim FAs without giving up such a prospect?
That's the real question. But what if the premium FA pitchers sign for close to 30 and 7-8 years each? Scherzer has fWARs of 4.5, 6.4, and 5.6 the last 3 years. That is $35+ million in value each year, so I dont see him taking something close to the $22 million like Hamels makes unless it is for stupid term (7-10 years).
Sandoval is still considered likely to go to the Sox...
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
No surprise that Gregorius is #DBacks SS drawing most interest; Owings coming off shoulder surgery (but expected back for spring training).
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
No surprise that Gregorius is #DBacks SS drawing most interest; Owings coming off shoulder surgery (but expected back for spring training).
Eric,
Pretty sure this just means they would deal Gregorius despite Owings injury not that teams prefer Gregorius. I'm not a Didi fan at all. Montero for him? Probably. Beyond that? No thanks. Owings probably costs you Wheeler or Thor so pass on that as well.
has 3 SS if you include Ahmed. Owings hit .261/300/.406 with 8 steals in 91 games. He was also above average in the field. Didi is older by 2 years (25 next season) and has absolutely stunk every change he's been given at the MLB level (he had a RIDICULOUS first month in the bigs which actually inflates his stats) and despite reported "plus" speed has 3 steals in 191 MLB games and 4 in 112 AAA games. Beyond Montero no thank you and I don't think Montero brings him back in this market.
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd 2m2 minutes ago
The reporting on Yasmany Tomas is consistent with what I'm hearing except for one thing: I've been hearing SD is still in the mix up to $70M
He had 54 SBs last year. 97 H, of them 14 were 2Bs, 2 3Bs and 11 HRs. So he probably stole 2B the majority of the times he got to 1B. He hit .236 at AA and he strikes out too damned much, but I'd be surprised if SOMEONE isn't willing to grab him as a 4th OF and try to hold onto him for a year.
Mike Puma @NYPost_Mets 3m3 minutes ago
Mets have hired former Yankees farm director Pat Roessler for vaccant coaching position. Will be assistant hitting coach + other duties.
I wrote that the other GM's aren't dummies or rubes
Morris makes the non-promotion to A+ even more curious. He wasn't ready ALL of 2014 for A+ but ready enough they are scared he is picked AND sticks? Robles is an organizational favorite out of the pen. Twice added pre rule v now.
Reynolds didn't need to be added. Walters is rehabbing TJ, even if they like him I doubt they were worried about losing him. Pill/Verrett could be sneaky adds for someone.
claims the Mets have no interest in going with Wilmer and just hyping him up to reduce asking prices.
Does Bowden have sources or Mets connections? There are things in his past that make me question his veracity. Also, if he really is reporting this out of Mets' sources, then they should investigate the leaker, since this would be info that you would only leak if you're putting your career ahead of the Mets' fortunes.
He isn't the most liked or respected guy around the league. So I wouldn't think he has much in the form of sources. I assume he is just twisting words slightly from what a GM with excess SS is feeding him. New GMs like to play those games.
- One of Niese/Gee is getting traded prior to the season as long as they don't get low-balled
- They're probably waiting until January to make a move for a SS, whether it's because trade price goes down or there's a free agent sitting there at a bargain (he has it as a 55%/45% likelihood Wilmer is the starter)
- They haven't had any discussions with CHI about Ramirez, but still thinks something could happen with the Mariners
- Still looking for a reliever (1 year deal) and possible RH upgrade over Campbell like Ludwig or Gomes
Per the AJC's David O'Brien, the Braves' meeting with coveted free agent Jon Lester went down during lunch yesterday, But the front office apparently did not make a concrete offer, opting instead to lay out how Lester could be part of their plans to be competitive for the new ballpark.
Not surprising on Lester, but this one is.
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The race to sign Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas is heating up once again.
The Braves and Padres have emerged as the frontrunners in the Tomas sweepstakes and top officials from both clubs are expected to meet with him this weekend in the Dominican Republic, according to industry sources.
Whats more, sources indicate Tomas is currently mulling offers and his camp is considering attending Winter Meetings in San Diego next month. The slugger is believed to be seeking at least a five to seven year deal with an annual salary near $15 million, but the Tomas camp has not ruled out the possibility of signing a short-term, high-value deal that would allow him to return to the market sooner rather than later.
When the Padres are considered front runners for top free agents and the Mets aren't even in the discussion.
I know once they signed Cuddyer, they were out on Tomas.. which I could stomach if I knew they'd go hard in on Moncada. But they won't even be in the discussion. That's what bothers the hell out of me.
These Cuban players are being persued by smaller market teams. The mets went into the off season needing two things desperately, OF and SS. The top two options are Cuban and not being persued by the Coupons.
Another example to why the Braves go through brief periods of mediocrity, and the Mets endure decades.
Less about Tomas, specifically. More about the obvious plan for them. Its like the baseball Gods are handing them the final pieces for a long successful future on a golden platter and they are saying "nah..the older cheaper option is more what we are about"
Having SS or OF locked up for 8 plus years would be huge. Instead, let's march out older injury prone corner OFers! This way MDD can get some at bats!! Pathetic.
I don't know if I like the Braves going in on Tomas.
in a huge, huge cash/debt situation. They're doing mimimum level investments (Grandy, Colon, Cuddyer). That's it.
Now, I think the FA class sucked and I get that the correlation between spending and winning is corroding. But it is clear that the whole league is in an arms war over controllable international talent (I think as a reaction to lesser FA classes and shorter careers post-PEDs). The Mets are sitting that out too. It's very frustrating.
I don't know how much he'll K but I do know that power is at a premium right now and if you can get a guy who can hit the ball out like that, it's certainly an asset.
have a very hard time believing the realistic view of Tomas is Justin Upton. Why do I say this? Because Justin Upton with a good 2015 will get close to 200 million while Tomas (at 23) is looking at 70-90 and while there is interest, you would assume it would be higher if it were "Upton" esque. I think more realistically a 2013 Marlon Byrd type of player. Certainly worth the money (and a lot more) if he gives you something like that for 6-7 years. Just saying I think that's more realistic.
Re SSs: The other thing is that it is one of the few positions where you cant just move a guy and have passable play. C and SS and to a MUCH lesser extent CF have non-fungible players. By contrast, a CF can be moved to RF or LF, and a SS can be moved over to 2B or 3B (if he has the arm).
Tomas: If he's 2013 Marlon Byrd then he's a star worth way more than $70. 2013 Marlon was a 25 HR, 846 OBP monster (playing in a shitty park). He was good for 4.1 fWAR. Steamer has 8 OFs being 4.1 fWAR players for 2015.
be clear I wasn't suggested if Tomas is 2013 Byrd he's not worth the money. I'm suggesting if he were viewed as Upton 2.0 he would be getting even more. Upton at times has looked like an MVP caliber talent. He's overrated by virtue of "untapped upside" but nobody would lose their minds if next year Upton were NL MVP hitting 42 homers with 120 rbi and 20 steals and there aren't many guys who you can say that about.
He isnt going anywhere because he doesnt want too. If Rollins/Utley didnt leave after the writing on the wall last year, there's no reaosn to believe he will go this year either.
I wouldnt say he had a very good year. He was solid to good. Pretty productive. But .240 with a .320 OBP is still pretty low. His power numbers were nice to see though. I wonder if moving to LA/Oak would hurt them though.
He isnt going anywhere because he doesnt want too. If Rollins/Utley didnt leave after the writing on the wall last year, there's no reaosn to believe he will go this year either.
I wouldnt say he had a very good year. He was solid to good. Pretty productive. But .240 with a .320 OBP is still pretty low. His power numbers were nice to see though. I wonder if moving to LA/Oak would hurt them though.
Rollins ranking among SS-
4th in fWAR
5th in wOBA
7th in slugging
6th in total defense
tied for 6th in baserunning
6th in wRC+
3rd in steals
3rd in homers
Really not looking to argue Jimmy Rollins but by any measure vs. other SS he had a very good year. He was top 7 in almost every major category.
The Braves are very much shopping Justin Upton and are requesting a higher return than they received earlier this week when they dealt their other corner outfielder, Jason Heyward.
In exchange for Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden, Atlanta received from St. Louis a pretty good starter with four years of control in Shelby Miller plus pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins.
Like Heyward, Upton can be a free agent after this season and is due $14.5 million in 2015 compared to the $8.3 million that Heyward will earn. Nevertheless, the Braves think Upton has greater value in the trade market because his overall offense particularly his power is superior. Upton hit 29 homers and Heyward 11. And Upton brings righty power, which is in particularly short demand.
The only right-handed hitter who had more homers than Upton in the National League was Giancarlo Stanton (37), who just signed a 13-year, $325 million contract.
DMM - I didnt think you were saying that. I know you can do the dollars/years/WAR math pretty easily. I have no idea if Tomas is going to be any good, and I dont specifically advocate signing him. But our lineup really concerns me -- I could easily see sub-2 WAR seasons from Grandy, Cuddyer, SS, and even TDA. And that isnt counting injury/disaster scenarios (like Duda regressing).
DMM - I didnt think you were saying that. I know you can do the dollars/years/WAR math pretty easily. I have no idea if Tomas is going to be any good, and I dont specifically advocate signing him. But our lineup really concerns me -- I could easily see sub-2 WAR seasons from Grandy, Cuddyer, SS, and even TDA. And that isnt counting injury/disaster scenarios (like Duda regressing).
Yeah well I've tried to avoid being "negative" this off-season because I'm excited for 2015 but yeah I think too many people are penciling in all the positives and ignoring regressions. I mean it's sort of scary to think about but if we are just going by guys who are coming off back to back good seasons then the list is basically Juan Lagares and Daniel Murphy. Now I've always been a Duda guy, I think Wright will bounce back a bit and Cuddyer could be solid but yeah regression is something to consider.
Im very positive. Love the rotation, live arms in the pen, starter depth. Frankly, just love the whole staff except for pen depth and overall experience, and I think a guy like Gee could do really well from the pen (pitchers tend to get markedly better when moving to RP).
As for hitters, I see no reason Lagares and Murphy shouldnt repeat. A healthy Wright is a 4-6 WAR player, maybe better. Duda could easily repeat (and could be even more valuable losing ABs to Cuddyer). Flores I think hits at every level. But the corner OFs and defense really scare me. I could see things going south with some bad luck pretty easily.
I'm not looking to be "negative" but beyond just hoping for the best I'm not really sure what there is to point to in hoping Granderson is significantly better. His WAR likely will be higher since his arm graded out AWFULLY in RF (so that should help) but he's hit .229 over his last 376 games (1.5 of those seasons in Yankee Stadium). I mean he could/should hit for a few more homers with the dimensions but unlike Wright who was AWESOME in 2013, what exactly are we pointing to to expect him to be much different in 2015?
My expectations for him are very, very low. I honestly think that this is the last time he goes into spring training being thought of as an every day player. Didnt like the signing at the time (I dont believe in "legitimacy" signings), and I hate that it will be thrown back in our face as we skip the next good FA. You just know you're going to hear about how much they blew on Grandy and Bay etc.
Actually, they don't. They affect them.
Come on now, look at that pic. That's prolly two hours before game time. There's nobody on the field other than a couple of bozos playing catch.
"Not trying to be a dick"
Yes, yes you are. Just own it.
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Yep.
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Come on now, look at that pic. That's prolly two hours before game time. There's nobody on the field other than a couple of bozos playing catch.
Better? lol
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Yeah they could manage it, but it seems like they're banking on Severino and Judge. While they're probably open to dealing prospects, even good ones, I doubt they ship out their two best trade chips when they're not a player away. I don't watch Castro enough to give a decent take on his defense, negative WAR but that's not the most reliable metric for rating glove work, and the offense is very good. At 24 he probably isn't done improving either, though his speed game has already diminished.
Awesome....that would mean they'd be looking to deal Justin Upton.
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Interesting. Low risk, some upside, low cost. If he could be had for Gee/Colon, no brainer for both sides.
Capone - get on the phone and make it happen!!
I could keep laughing all the way to Spotsylvania or wherever Greg is.
The #Braves have signed RHP Chien-Ming Wang to a Minor League contract and given him a ST invite.
Well ok then.
as expected, ervin santana will not accept the $15.3M qualifying offer. put up big year with braves, just get nice deal.
Expected.
Aaaaand now for my sad face...
Can confirm report by @JoelSherman1 that #Braves Gattis is being pushed aggressively.
Mets announce theyve signed Michael Cuddyer to a two-year contract. Well then.
#Braves signed free-agent OF Zoilo Almonte to a major league deal. Ex-Yankee can play corners and some CF.
SOURCES: #Cubs in talks to acquire RHP Jordan Zimmermann from #Nationals, @GDubCub reports: http://sun-tim.es/1u8Qefa
SOURCES: #Cubs in talks to acquire RHP Jordan Zimmermann from #Nationals, @GDubCub reports: http://sun-tim.es/1u8Qefa
That makes no sense for Washington, he's their best pitcher
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With no #Braves extension expected before free agency, Heyward trade possible (for pitching?).
Yankees signed LHP Jose De Paula. Career minor leaguer. 4-3, 4.21 ERA in 16 appearances (10 starts) for Triple-A Fresno (SFG) in 2014.
I've been told it is very doubtful on Yanks making a trade for Andrus.
alexei ramirez said to be more likely ss alternative than elvis andrus for yankees, tho nothing's close w/either at moment
The Mets COULD get involved, as they already lost their first rounder, and would only lose a second- but it hasn't been their MO to spend big in recent years.
The Cubs are not contenders yet, and need SP, not closers. The White Sox are not contenders yet- and have bigger needs in the OF.
Outside of those teams, who is seriously going to pony up $12-13M per, plus the draft pick, for Robertson?
The Nats have their own FA to worry about over the next 2 years, the Tigers might- but have issues with their OF that need prioritization, the Giants are good at closer, so are the Phils, the Braves, the Pirates, the Reds, the Angels, the Os and the Ms. Have I missed any contenders or near contenders? I know I left the A's out- but it is HIGHLY unlikely the A's go big in the FA market for Robertson.
In short, unless the Tigers get desperate or the White Sox decide they are ready to make a playoff run, there really is not a clear landing spot at the $$$ he wants.
The Mets COULD get involved, as they already lost their first rounder, and would only lose a second- but it hasn't been their MO to spend big in recent years.
The Cubs are not contenders yet, and need SP, not closers. The White Sox are not contenders yet- and have bigger needs in the OF.
Outside of those teams, who is seriously going to pony up $12-13M per, plus the draft pick, for Robertson?
The Nats have their own FA to worry about over the next 2 years, the Tigers might- but have issues with their OF that need prioritization, the Giants are good at closer, so are the Phils, the Braves, the Pirates, the Reds, the Angels, the Os and the Ms. Have I missed any contenders or near contenders? I know I left the A's out- but it is HIGHLY unlikely the A's go big in the FA market for Robertson.
In short, unless the Tigers get desperate or the White Sox decide they are ready to make a playoff run, there really is not a clear landing spot at the $$$ he wants.
Teams are nothing if not copycats. The Royals "proved" that you can win if the only above average piece your team has is a shutdown pen, while the Tigers proved that even if your only glaring flaw is the pen you can still come up short. I'd be surprised if Robertson settled for less than 3/30 and even that strikes me as unlikely.
It would make fried chicken and beer look like organic kale and kombucha tea.
I don't know, Ortiz's "doctor" plus the short wall would probably do wonders for Sandoval!
Agreed. It boggles my mind that anyone is going to give Tubbo that kind of money. Been a meh hitter for three seasons now, is a mediocre third baseman, and guys that fat tend not to age well. 29 was Prince Fielder's age when he started to hit the skids two seasons ago.
Taveras' BAC level was 5 times the legal limit at the time of his fatal car crash reports @JeffPassan. Not good at all.
Another crazy note via a scout from the Moncada workout in Guatemala: Scott Boras had two reps there, both were escorted out by armed guard.
Marc Carig @MarcCarig 14m14 minutes ago
"Boras has been shopping near the meat section. That's where he gets his bullshit." - Sandy Alderson
Sources: Orioles and Nick Markakis have made significant progress on a four-year deal. Been talking about $10-12M a year. Should get done.
Expect a bidding war between the Cubs/Red Sox.
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...
Expect a bidding war between the Cubs/Red Sox.
And expect Ruben to get fleeced anyway...
I need a nap.
Red Sox are unwilling to give up Betts/Bogaerts. If thats the case, they better be ready to give up Swihart, Owens, Holt, and Kelly.
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want Hamels and may try to sign Hanley Ramirez to play 3rd. They would like to resign Lester, but Boston writers are pessimistic.
Red Sox are unwilling to give up Betts/Bogaerts. If thats the case, they better be ready to give up Swihart, Owens, Holt, and Kelly.
It'll be straight up for JBJ, that's how Amaro rolls.
If I had to guess I'd say they probably sign Sandoval to play 3B and one of the top pitchers to add to their rotation. They have the trade chips, I'm not sure they are going to part with them for a guy like Hamels who at 31 (Opening Day) is probably more of a finishing touch than a building block.
Hamels had a superb year. My point was simply that Boston is likely building with a 2-3 horizon in mind, and in 2-3 years Hamels will have a fair amount of tread on his tires. Scherzer, for instance, is not actually much younger but has about three years less (550 IP) major league tread on his tires. Lester isn't as far behind as Scherzer is. But if Boston was going to put a bunch of money into an arm this offseason Scherzer would be a safer bet, and you hang onto your prospects.
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dominant last year. His year really flew under the radar.
Hamels had a superb year. My point was simply that Boston is likely building with a 2-3 horizon in mind, and in 2-3 years Hamels will have a fair amount of tread on his tires. Scherzer, for instance, is not actually much younger but has about three years less (550 IP) major league tread on his tires. Lester isn't as far behind as Scherzer is. But if Boston was going to put a bunch of money into an arm this offseason Scherzer would be a safer bet, and you hang onto your prospects.
Hamels contract will be much more friendly though.
I do admit, I would rather see the Cubs trade for Hamels. The idea of getting Russell/Soler as the building blocks is quite exciting. I wouldnt be shocked if Theo goes for both Hamels and Lester. With Castro, Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Alacantra among other young talent... it wont be long before they are competing if they get some SP.
[quote] In comment 11977152 Dunedin81 said:
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In comment 11977133 dep026 said:
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dominant last year. His year really flew under the radar.
Hamels had a superb year. My point was simply that Boston is likely building with a 2-3 horizon in mind, and in 2-3 years Hamels will have a fair amount of tread on his tires. Scherzer, for instance, is not actually much younger but has about three years less (550 IP) major league tread on his tires. Lester isn't as far behind as Scherzer is. But if Boston was going to put a bunch of money into an arm this offseason Scherzer would be a safer bet, and you hang onto your prospects.
Hamels contract will be much more friendly though.
I do admit, I would rather see the Cubs trade for Hamels. The idea of getting Russell/Soler as the building blocks is quite exciting. I wouldnt be shocked if Theo goes for both Hamels and Lester. With Castro, Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Alacantra among other young talent... it wont be long before they are competing if they get some SP. [/quote
You are severely overrating Hamels trade value. The Cubs wouldn't give you Russell or Soler straight up for Hamels, never mind both of them. Hamels trade value is not that.
If the Cubs want him, they are going to have to give up at least a mixture of Russell, Soler, McKinney, Edwards, or Alacantra. Bryant is untouchable. ANd if they dont, they have no shot of getting him.
Additionally, Samardzija might be a worse pitcher then Hamels, but there is plenty of evidence that you will get more in season in a trade to a contender, as well as even more evidence that top starters aren't worth all that much in trade value. You should be looking at the A's deal as an outlier of a GM going all in because he can't financially do it otherwise, rather then the true value of a starter. The Cubs are flush with cash, and if they really valued that arm more then the SS, why wouldn't they have just kept Samardzija who has 1100 less innings on his arm and will cost a lot less?
Look at what Price got or Fister got in the trade market. Lester was traded for almost nothing. Again, the contract for Hamels isn't really a positive here, he's getting market value for the next couple of years then will be overpaid, its the same as signing any free agent.
The one caveat to this is if the Phillies kick in a bunch of money to the contract, but so far all signs point to they haven't been willing to do that.
Don't get me wrong- I love Hamels, he's a great pitcher, definitely a top 15 starter in baseball if not a good amount higher, I just don't see the precedent for the trade market in giving up a Russell for Hamels.
Yanks and Red Sox are already past that penalty though, so expect some bids from those 2 at least.
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this is the time when all the best 2015 talent starts getting handshake agreements in advance of 7/2. If a team wants to sign Moncada and he is eligible before 6/15/15 they'll go into the penalty for this signing period (if they're not already there) and lose the ability to sign players for the next two years to contracts over $300K. So it's a strange dynamic.
Yanks and Red Sox are already past that penalty though, so expect some bids from those 2 at least.
I flipping hope so, there isn't a good reason not to be in on the kid if, as Hal apparently said this week, they could break even with twice the payroll they've got now.
You aren't getting the surplus value in his contract though, thats for sure. Why would you give up a top 5 prospect in baseball to get the less valuable years of a pitchers contract when you can sign a pitcher without doing so?
It is pretty high but the players are the product, and so for elite talent who has dealt with pre-arb and early arb salaries I don't get that animated about even $10-$12 for serviceable players because you're talking about revenue streams in the hundreds of millions of dollars and a prime of unrestricted earnings of maybe 4-5 years, tops.
Additionally, Samardzija might be a worse pitcher then Hamels, but there is plenty of evidence that you will get more in season in a trade to a contender, as well as even more evidence that top starters aren't worth all that much in trade value. You should be looking at the A's deal as an outlier of a GM going all in because he can't financially do it otherwise, rather then the true value of a starter. The Cubs are flush with cash, and if they really valued that arm more then the SS, why wouldn't they have just kept Samardzija who has 1100 less innings on his arm and will cost a lot less?
Look at what Price got or Fister got in the trade market. Lester was traded for almost nothing. Again, the contract for Hamels isn't really a positive here, he's getting market value for the next couple of years then will be overpaid, its the same as signing any free agent.
The one caveat to this is if the Phillies kick in a bunch of money to the contract, but so far all signs point to they haven't been willing to do that.
Don't get me wrong- I love Hamels, he's a great pitcher, definitely a top 15 starter in baseball if not a good amount higher, I just don't see the precedent for the trade market in giving up a Russell for Hamels.
You make a lot of good points, but I think the Cubs can and should afford to take on Hamels contract even though it will result in a negtive WAR. They are in a unique situation where their positional players will all put up a positive WAR since they are all on really good contracts or cheap. There is no reason for the Cubs not to progess to the point where they arent in the playoff picture in a few years. They need SP. And they need an ace.
They are eventually going to have to trade someone because you cant have Baez, Bryant, Russell, and Castro - my guess is they try to trade Castro, but wind up trading Russell for that stud pitcher.
Lets just say they trade Russell, Alcantra, McKinney and Edwards for say Hamels/Ruiz. They will have Rizzo, Baez, Castro, Bryant in the IF. Soler/Lake/and a guys name who is slipping my mind. Then you sign Lester, and all of a sudden you have a very very interesting team.
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You make a lot of good points, but I think the Cubs can and should afford to take on Hamels contract even though it will result in a negtive WAR. They are in a unique situation where their positional players will all put up a positive WAR since they are all on really good contracts or cheap. There is no reason for the Cubs not to progess to the point where they arent in the playoff picture in a few years. They need SP. And they need an ace.
They are eventually going to have to trade someone because you cant have Baez, Bryant, Russell, and Castro - my guess is they try to trade Castro, but wind up trading Russell for that stud pitcher.
Lets just say they trade Russell, Alcantra, McKinney and Edwards for say Hamels/Ruiz. They will have Rizzo, Baez, Castro, Bryant in the IF. Soler/Lake/and a guys name who is slipping my mind. Then you sign Lester, and all of a sudden you have a very very interesting team.
Few things here:
1) WAR has nothing to do with contract at all. You are greatly misunderstanding what WAR is if you think its weighted by what a player is paid.
2) That would literally be an overpay of Mark Texiera proportions. There is no deal available even remotely close to the one you are proposing. You are asking for their, according to BP, #1 and #6 prospect, plus Alcantra who is #7 on the under 25 list(and Mckinney isn't even ranked on under 25, so Alcantra would be their #4 prospect according to BP) plus a good arm in Edwards for Hamels and a 35 year old catcher? It would easily be one of the single worst trades in MLB history.
3) They don't HAVE to do anything. Bryant can move to RF, Russell to 3rd, Alcantra can be a super utility guy, The Cubs aren't going to make a trade just because.
4) Again, if they need an ace, they can go out and sign one. Need two? Go sign two. What is the rush? They can be the youngest team in baseball for a few years, while still being competitive, without trading just to trade.
5) Russell isn't going anywhere, end of story. The most likely player to be dealt is Baez, simply because he's got the biggest bust potential, but he also is a potential mega star.
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In comment 11977342 Sgrcts said:
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You make a lot of good points, but I think the Cubs can and should afford to take on Hamels contract even though it will result in a negtive WAR. They are in a unique situation where their positional players will all put up a positive WAR since they are all on really good contracts or cheap. There is no reason for the Cubs not to progess to the point where they arent in the playoff picture in a few years. They need SP. And they need an ace.
They are eventually going to have to trade someone because you cant have Baez, Bryant, Russell, and Castro - my guess is they try to trade Castro, but wind up trading Russell for that stud pitcher.
Lets just say they trade Russell, Alcantra, McKinney and Edwards for say Hamels/Ruiz. They will have Rizzo, Baez, Castro, Bryant in the IF. Soler/Lake/and a guys name who is slipping my mind. Then you sign Lester, and all of a sudden you have a very very interesting team.
Few things here:
1) WAR has nothing to do with contract at all. You are greatly misunderstanding what WAR is if you think its weighted by what a player is paid.
2) That would literally be an overpay of Mark Texiera proportions. There is no deal available even remotely close to the one you are proposing. You are asking for their, according to BP, #1 and #6 prospect, plus Alcantra who is #7 on the under 25 list(and Mckinney isn't even ranked on under 25, so Alcantra would be their #4 prospect according to BP) plus a good arm in Edwards for Hamels and a 35 year old catcher? It would easily be one of the single worst trades in MLB history.
3) They don't HAVE to do anything. Bryant can move to RF, Russell to 3rd, Alcantra can be a super utility guy, The Cubs aren't going to make a trade just because.
4) Again, if they need an ace, they can go out and sign one. Need two? Go sign two. What is the rush? They can be the youngest team in baseball for a few years, while still being competitive, without trading just to trade.
5) Russell isn't going anywhere, end of story. The most likely player to be dealt is Baez, simply because he's got the biggest bust potential, but he also is a potential mega star.
Believe it or not, I have actually have read up a lot on some WAR statistics in regards to salary on another website. Very informative stuff. Any any large contract you sign more often than not turns into a negative.
The one thing I did for get to add is that if they trade Hamels/Ruiz, they would have to take on money. Huge oversihgt on my part, but if they ate say 50-60 million of the combined contracts, then you could ask for more prospects.
The one thing I disagree with you on is that they could just sign stud pitchers. Well they "could", but doesnt mean they will/can. Schrezer/Lester may want to stay in the AL. What if the Yankees or Sox offer more money? The one thing a lot of Phillies fans agree on is that they should not trade Hamels until Schrezer/Lester sign. Because if Boston/Cubs miss out on both, they may want to add pieces to the puzzle.
So back to the Cubs - they have a lot of desirable players. This much we agree upon. Now I am only basing it off from what I have heard. But I have heard that..
Bryant - untouchable
Soler - nearly untouchable
Russell - Need to be blown away.
Now guys like Edwards, Alacantra, and Mckinney will in be discussions for if they do trade for a stud pitcher. Now the Phillies are serious contenders for Tomas. So if they sign him, they wont need Alacnatra. But if the Cubs do want Hamels, and reports are that they seriously do... They are going to have to give up 1 of their big 3. And I think Russell is the one they will give up. I would prefer Soler because the Phillies have a SS coming up in 2 year to take Rollins spot.
But a trade of hypothetically being Soler/Edwards/McKinney is not out of realm of possibilities. You're right that the Cubs dont have to trade any of them. I hope the Phillies are in the mindset as well. They dont have to trade Hamels this offseason. They have him for at least 4 more years. Thats why if the ydo trade him this winter, they should get a substantial return - because why trade him if you dont have too right away? (Amaro jokes aside)
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In comment 11977517 dep026 said:
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Believe it or not, I have actually have read up a lot on some WAR statistics in regards to salary on another website. Very informative stuff. Any any large contract you sign more often than not turns into a negative.
The one thing I did for get to add is that if they trade Hamels/Ruiz, they would have to take on money. Huge oversihgt on my part, but if they ate say 50-60 million of the combined contracts, then you could ask for more prospects.
The one thing I disagree with you on is that they could just sign stud pitchers. Well they "could", but doesnt mean they will/can. Schrezer/Lester may want to stay in the AL. What if the Yankees or Sox offer more money? The one thing a lot of Phillies fans agree on is that they should not trade Hamels until Schrezer/Lester sign. Because if Boston/Cubs miss out on both, they may want to add pieces to the puzzle.
So back to the Cubs - they have a lot of desirable players. This much we agree upon. Now I am only basing it off from what I have heard. But I have heard that..
Bryant - untouchable
Soler - nearly untouchable
Russell - Need to be blown away.
Now guys like Edwards, Alacantra, and Mckinney will in be discussions for if they do trade for a stud pitcher. Now the Phillies are serious contenders for Tomas. So if they sign him, they wont need Alacnatra. But if the Cubs do want Hamels, and reports are that they seriously do... They are going to have to give up 1 of their big 3. And I think Russell is the one they will give up. I would prefer Soler because the Phillies have a SS coming up in 2 year to take Rollins spot.
But a trade of hypothetically being Soler/Edwards/McKinney is not out of realm of possibilities. You're right that the Cubs dont have to trade any of them. I hope the Phillies are in the mindset as well. They dont have to trade Hamels this offseason. They have him for at least 4 more years. Thats why if the ydo trade him this winter, they should get a substantial return - because why trade him if you dont have too right away? (Amaro jokes aside)
You are misunderstanding the relationship between WAR and salary. Salary is not included in the WAR calculation. The relationship is that a 1 WAR player is worth roughly 7MM in free agency. If you are paying a 3 war player 15 million, then you are underpaying that player relative to WAR. Over the life of a contract, say Cole Hamels contract at 6/144, the player has produce more then the rough value of the WAR related for the contract to be considered a positive value contract.
So for example, Hamels 144 would need to have roughly 20 WAR over his contract to be worth its value. In the 2 years the contract has been going, he has produced 7.9 FWAR. That would mean, over the next 4 years of his contract, he would need to average 3 FWAR per year for the contract to be considered having produce excess value.
The problem with then dealing for the contract, is that regression is more likely then progression, as it has for the last 4 years in a row. So while he is likely to produce positive value over the LIFETIME of the contract, that value has already occurred. Hamels has lost roughly .3 FWAR each year in the last 3 years. If you extrapolate that over the next 4 years, by the time the contract is in its final season, without the option, meaning he will be overpaid relative to the value of 1 WAR.
In other words, in 2013 and 2014, Hamels was underpaid. In 2015 and 2016 he probably will be roughly paid accurately. In 2017 and 2018, he will be overpaid.
This is why his contract is a negative. The excess value in a contract is in the early years. The Phillies have already extracted the value of the contract, and in future years it will be an overpay. The Cubs aren't going to overpay in prospects while overpaying on a contract as well.
To put in context, when Mike Trout signed his extension, he had been worth 20.6 FWAR. Based on the 7MM per WAR calculation, those 2 years were worth 140MM alone.
The idea of a Soler straight up for Hamels trade MIGHT have some semblance of reality. Ruiz has no value to the Cubs.
Again though, the Phillies would still have to kick in some serious dollars for that to even be considered, and the Cubs certainly wouldn't have to add in any other players.
Sure, parts of it will change but really just the prices will change. There are studies done in terms of team building, and some think its better to spend the money on 2 3 WAR players then 1 6 WAR player and 1 0 WAR player, and then some that say the opposite.
Regardless, Hamels is far more likely to be a 3 or less WAR player at age 34 then a 5 WAR player, no?
Thats B-WAR, which has a different monetary calculation then the one I used above, which used F-WAR.
Really though, most front offices are using their own proprietary systems that aren't available to the public, as they have access to a bunch of stuff we don't. Except the Phillies, they don't believe in saber metrics.
Source: #DBacks working on Hellickson trade with #Rays
Source: OF Justin Williams to #Rays in Hellickson deal. Hellickson to DBacks done.
Source: #Rays getting shortstop Andrew Velazquez in Hellickson deal.
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Andrew Velazquez is a little man with explosive tools. 70 runner. 60 arm. Contact issues, but manageable, and surprising sock for his size.
quick sandy call Arizona and offer flores and Montero for owings
BREAKING: #Dbacks trade No. 12 prospect @squezhao and No. 14 prospect Justin Williams to #Rays for RHP @JHell58.
Since 2010 143 SP have a lower FIP than Hellickson
Problem is Sandy is actually trying to acquire major leaguers for the Gee's and Colons. If he shot lower, he'd move them too.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-design-a-red-sox-cole-hamels-trade/ - ( New Window )
Well there is no way the Phillies do a deal with anyways and if they did the Red Sox would get ab absolute steal. A proven ace is worth more than prospects in the 10-20 range.
Red Sox will be off the table anyways, since they are about to sign Lester anyways.
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. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-design-a-red-sox-cole-hamels-trade/ - ( New Window )
Well there is no way the Phillies do a deal with anyways and if they did the Red Sox would get ab absolute steal. A proven ace is worth more than prospects in the 10-20 range.
Hamels is only worth what teams are willing to offer for him. He's good, but he gets paid like a good pitcher. Why give up a bigtime prospect for Hamels when you can pay a bit more and get one of the premuim FAs without giving up such a prospect?
No surprise that Gregorius is #DBacks SS drawing most interest; Owings coming off shoulder surgery (but expected back for spring training).
No surprise that Gregorius is #DBacks SS drawing most interest; Owings coming off shoulder surgery (but expected back for spring training).
Eric,
Pretty sure this just means they would deal Gregorius despite Owings injury not that teams prefer Gregorius. I'm not a Didi fan at all. Montero for him? Probably. Beyond that? No thanks. Owings probably costs you Wheeler or Thor so pass on that as well.
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The reporting on Yasmany Tomas is consistent with what I'm hearing except for one thing: I've been hearing SD is still in the mix up to $70M
No wayyyyyy. I was called an idiot the other day for saying that, and told that other GMs aren't dumb enough to fall for that. Lol
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Mets have hired former Yankees farm director Pat Roessler for vaccant coaching position. Will be assistant hitting coach + other duties.
they only had 5 spots.
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claims the Mets have no interest in going with Wilmer and just hyping him up to reduce asking prices.
No wayyyyyy. I was called an idiot the other day for saying that, and told that other GMs aren't dumb enough to fall for that. Lol
But you said that WAS what the Mets were doing.
Reynolds didn't need to be added. Walters is rehabbing TJ, even if they like him I doubt they were worried about losing him. Pill/Verrett could be sneaky adds for someone.
Does Bowden have sources or Mets connections? There are things in his past that make me question his veracity. Also, if he really is reporting this out of Mets' sources, then they should investigate the leaker, since this would be info that you would only leak if you're putting your career ahead of the Mets' fortunes.
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I wonder if the Nats will be interested in Ike. They have injury-prone Ryan Zimmerman moving to 1B. Ike could be the backup 1B and a LH bat.
How about this: the Astros have added Michael Feliz to their 40 man roster, announcing it an hour before deadline.
- One of Niese/Gee is getting traded prior to the season as long as they don't get low-balled
- They're probably waiting until January to make a move for a SS, whether it's because trade price goes down or there's a free agent sitting there at a bargain (he has it as a 55%/45% likelihood Wilmer is the starter)
- They haven't had any discussions with CHI about Ramirez, but still thinks something could happen with the Mariners
- Still looking for a reliever (1 year deal) and possible RH upgrade over Campbell like Ludwig or Gomes
Not surprising on Lester, but this one is.
The Braves and Padres have emerged as the frontrunners in the Tomas sweepstakes and top officials from both clubs are expected to meet with him this weekend in the Dominican Republic, according to industry sources.
Whats more, sources indicate Tomas is currently mulling offers and his camp is considering attending Winter Meetings in San Diego next month. The slugger is believed to be seeking at least a five to seven year deal with an annual salary near $15 million, but the Tomas camp has not ruled out the possibility of signing a short-term, high-value deal that would allow him to return to the market sooner rather than later.
I know once they signed Cuddyer, they were out on Tomas.. which I could stomach if I knew they'd go hard in on Moncada. But they won't even be in the discussion. That's what bothers the hell out of me.
Another example to why the Braves go through brief periods of mediocrity, and the Mets endure decades.
Having SS or OF locked up for 8 plus years would be huge. Instead, let's march out older injury prone corner OFers! This way MDD can get some at bats!! Pathetic.
Now, I think the FA class sucked and I get that the correlation between spending and winning is corroding. But it is clear that the whole league is in an arms war over controllable international talent (I think as a reaction to lesser FA classes and shorter careers post-PEDs). The Mets are sitting that out too. It's very frustrating.
1. Simmons
2. Peralta
3.Desmond
4. Tulo
5. Hardy
6. Crawford
7. Aybar
8. A. Ramirez
9. Escobar
10. Castro
1. Simmons
2. Peralta
3.Desmond
4. Tulo
5. Hardy
6. Crawford
7. Aybar
8. A. Ramirez
9. Escobar
10. Castro
The sabremetrics crowd in Phillies land would be astonished by this. They felt Rollins was EXCELLENT last year.
1. Simmons
2. Peralta
3.Desmond
4. Tulo
5. Hardy
6. Crawford
7. Aybar
8. A. Ramirez
9. Escobar
10. Castro
Could have had Peralta as well for just money, but.. newp.
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is a good explanation why SS's are so expensive nowadays... Buster Olney's top 10 MLB SS's
1. Simmons
2. Peralta
3.Desmond
4. Tulo
5. Hardy
6. Crawford
7. Aybar
8. A. Ramirez
9. Escobar
10. Castro
The sabremetrics crowd in Phillies land would be astonished by this. They felt Rollins was EXCELLENT last year.
Rollins was #11. He did have a very good year. I think he'd be a great fit for a team like the Dodgers.
Tomas: If he's 2013 Marlon Byrd then he's a star worth way more than $70. 2013 Marlon was a 25 HR, 846 OBP monster (playing in a shitty park). He was good for 4.1 fWAR. Steamer has 8 OFs being 4.1 fWAR players for 2015.
He isnt going anywhere because he doesnt want too. If Rollins/Utley didnt leave after the writing on the wall last year, there's no reaosn to believe he will go this year either.
I wouldnt say he had a very good year. He was solid to good. Pretty productive. But .240 with a .320 OBP is still pretty low. His power numbers were nice to see though. I wonder if moving to LA/Oak would hurt them though.
In comment 11991516 dep026 said:
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great spot for Rollins would be Oakland.
He isnt going anywhere because he doesnt want too. If Rollins/Utley didnt leave after the writing on the wall last year, there's no reaosn to believe he will go this year either.
I wouldnt say he had a very good year. He was solid to good. Pretty productive. But .240 with a .320 OBP is still pretty low. His power numbers were nice to see though. I wonder if moving to LA/Oak would hurt them though.
Rollins ranking among SS-
4th in fWAR
5th in wOBA
7th in slugging
6th in total defense
tied for 6th in baserunning
6th in wRC+
3rd in steals
3rd in homers
Really not looking to argue Jimmy Rollins but by any measure vs. other SS he had a very good year. He was top 7 in almost every major category.
The Braves are very much shopping Justin Upton and are requesting a higher return than they received earlier this week when they dealt their other corner outfielder, Jason Heyward.
In exchange for Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden, Atlanta received from St. Louis a pretty good starter with four years of control in Shelby Miller plus pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins.
Like Heyward, Upton can be a free agent after this season and is due $14.5 million in 2015 compared to the $8.3 million that Heyward will earn. Nevertheless, the Braves think Upton has greater value in the trade market because his overall offense particularly his power is superior. Upton hit 29 homers and Heyward 11. And Upton brings righty power, which is in particularly short demand.
The only right-handed hitter who had more homers than Upton in the National League was Giancarlo Stanton (37), who just signed a 13-year, $325 million contract.
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Yeah well I've tried to avoid being "negative" this off-season because I'm excited for 2015 but yeah I think too many people are penciling in all the positives and ignoring regressions. I mean it's sort of scary to think about but if we are just going by guys who are coming off back to back good seasons then the list is basically Juan Lagares and Daniel Murphy. Now I've always been a Duda guy, I think Wright will bounce back a bit and Cuddyer could be solid but yeah regression is something to consider.
As for hitters, I see no reason Lagares and Murphy shouldnt repeat. A healthy Wright is a 4-6 WAR player, maybe better. Duda could easily repeat (and could be even more valuable losing ABs to Cuddyer). Flores I think hits at every level. But the corner OFs and defense really scare me. I could see things going south with some bad luck pretty easily.