In my opinion, the success percentage of a fade pattern is about 33%. The Giants had already thrown three of them in a row. The odds say that they were due and should have gone for it again.
Second, if you take the points and stop the niners, then you might have about a minute left to get into field goal position to tie the game. If you believe in Eli and the defense, you got to strongly consider that option
I had no problems with the fade calls. I'll just cut and paste what I said in another thread:
Besides, do people really think Eli gets the call and says in the huddle, "jump ball to Donnell"? If they go to the LOS and have a matchup they like they're going to throw the fade every time...and they should! What are they supposed to do? Run the ball when their offensive line is being completely whipped? Given the performance of their OL it's a wonder they were able to get single coverage in the red zone...the 49ers probably could have had penetration rushing two guys.
The fades were good plays in the situation. The players (Eli on 1st down, Randle on 2nd, and Donnell on third) just didn't execute. If you want to bitch about something ask why Randle (who never high points the ball and has developed the bad habit of trying to catch that type of pass with one hand) was in over Washington (who has excelled every time he has been in that situation).
I had no problems with the fade calls. I'll just cut and paste what I said in another thread:
Quote:
People are pointing to the fade passes...were those same people bitching about the fade when it was resulting in the Giants having one of the best red zone offenses in the league?
Besides, do people really think Eli gets the call and says in the huddle, "jump ball to Donnell"? If they go to the LOS and have a matchup they like they're going to throw the fade every time...and they should! What are they supposed to do? Run the ball when their offensive line is being completely whipped? Given the performance of their OL it's a wonder they were able to get single coverage in the red zone...the 49ers probably could have had penetration rushing two guys.
The fades were good plays in the situation. The players (Eli on 1st down, Randle on 2nd, and Donnell on third) just didn't execute. If you want to bitch about something ask why Randle (who never high points the ball and has developed the bad habit of trying to catch that type of pass with one hand) was in over Washington (who has excelled every time he has been in that situation).
I was just thinking your last point - if you're going to bitch about anything, bitch about throwing the fade to Randle, who never wins that kind of battle for the ball.
The fade has a low percentage success rate because everything has to be perfect...the throw, the timing of the jump, feet in bounds, single coverage, while all along the entire defense is ready.
Considering this team, the idea of having to be "perfect" is about as low percentage as it gets.
Only if the D has to respect the running game.
Again, it's not like the call from McAdoo is "fade route". Eli and the receivers go to the LOS with plenty of time to look at the defense and assess their options. Had the outside been taken away I am sure the ball would not have gone there. But clearly the Giant players made the correct assessment each time, because each time they had a guy isolated one on one...a situation EVERY COACH IN THE LEAGUE WOULD GLADLY ACCEPT.
The players couldn't make the play. That's on them.
as lynch said on the tv broadcast - how about a slant? in lynch's estimation the slants were wide open
if the D doubles him, someone is open on the overload to the other side.
Must've been trickery!
See Donnell, who actually tried to out leap the defender and nearly came down with it.
Anway...I would have like to see the Eli under center at least once and maybe hand it off, or even play action. I know they were stopping the run, but San Fran still needs to respect the run down that close IMO. Their run responsiblities are first.
What they should have done is isolate Beckham in place of Randle on 2nd down. And then again on 3rd down. And then again on 4th down.
Since we can't block and run the ball, Beckham is our best shot in that situation if you can get him isolated.