Who's slated to start on this team that isn't proven? Flores? TDA maybe? We went through a painful rebuild for 4 years and part of that is allowing our top prospects a chance to break in.
The team was a work in progress last year for sure. We completely rolled the dice at 1B, went into a season with a complete hole in the outfield, Tejada at SS and a rotation and bullpen in shambles.
That's not the case anymore. I don't see any holes on this team at all if Flores is the SS.
I think it's more people wanting to guard their expectations which is fine. We are going to have a fantastic rotation, a fantastic bullpen, and a very good NL lineup. The rebuild isn't complete. It won't be for a couple more years in my mind when everyone's reaching their primes but we should be in the mix for a wild card this year and that's all I want.
It's that simple. They cannot just count on young players to improve and on older guys who were injured/ineffective to come back 100%. Yes both of those things can happen, and if they do that's great - icing on the cake - as it was in 06 when everything came together at once. But they need to do more to improve the team.
IMO this offseason they needed to add 1 solid, 3 WAR+, every day player that was still in his prime. I like Cuddyer's bat, but he's not that, he's a nice role player. Going into last year, off an injured 2013 Chris Young was similarly 1 year removed from posting a solid season in 2012. Cuddyer is a much better fit for what this team needs right now, but at this point his addition is a lot closer to the Chris Young signing than the Beltran acquisition in 05. And again, I'm not criticizing the Cuddyer signing, I liked the Young signing last year and I like Cuddyer signing even more. As Boras says, we're still shopping in the same aisles.
Agree 100%. I mean I think the Mets would sign tomorrow for Cuddyer to be as good as Marlon Byrd has been the last 2 seasons but would anyone say the 2014 Mets were a Marlon Byrd away from a good offensive squad?
in retrospect to other teams NL lineups and considering the hole it was filling. Every single player in our lineup is slated to be above average. Every one. On top of that, we have depth. Any player in our lineup can go down for a while and we could fill the hole with a pretty good option.
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
in retrospect to other teams NL lineups and considering the hole it was filling. Every single player in our lineup is slated to be above average. Every one. On top of that, we have depth. Any player in our lineup can go down for a while and we could fill the hole with a pretty good option.
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
Wrong. The Mets were 9th in the NL in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA so your league claims just aren't true. They were below average offensively and Cuddyer at his very best is a league average LF.
in retrospect to other teams NL lineups and considering the hole it was filling. Every single player in our lineup is slated to be above average. Every one. On top of that, we have depth. Any player in our lineup can go down for a while and we could fill the hole with a pretty good option.
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
Braves, Phillies, Reds and Padres were the only teams worse than the Mets in terms of wOBA. This idea the Mets offense was average because hitting is down is flat false
we are going to play the projections game it won't turn out very well for your argument. Steamer absolutely despises the Mets roster on the whole. Can't pick and choose.
we are going to play the projections game it won't turn out very well for your argument. Steamer absolutely despises the Mets roster on the whole. Can't pick and choose.
Sure I can because Flores is really the only complete unknown heading into 2015 so its fun using a mathematical engine to see where he might go.
Steamer is always extremely conservative and of course isn't going to like Wright, Cuddyer, Granderson, ect with their injury histories. Im cool with that.
to what the lineup can do offensively. I don't really care about what Steamer thinks of Duda's defense, Granderson's defense(which I think will be good with a move to LF) or TDA's which is a ridiculous formula for rating catchers anyway.
to mention, 99% of BBI's Mets fans agreed he was awful blocking balls in the dirt and he was well below average throwing. What formula would make his defense look good?
nobody's arguing that lol. Easily correctable however. If he cuts his passed balls from 12 to 6 he suddenly shoots up. Did any of those passed balls hurt us even in a single game btw?? He also hurt his arm and I think it effected his throwing 2nd half a bit. He's at least been average throughout his minor league career at throwing guys out. He's also excellent in just about every other area. Pitchers love throwing to him. He frames pitches well. And he handles himself excellent on popups, ect. Most catchers improve significantly going into their second year defensively as well.
about TDA's defense at all yet. And yeah I despise the formula for evaluating a catcher's defense which basically revolves around passed balls(errors)and throwing guys out.
Catchers main defensive responsibilities do not revolve around those two factors.
nobody's arguing that lol. Easily correctable however. If he cuts his passed balls from 12 to 6 he suddenly shoots up. Did any of those passed balls hurt us even in a single game btw?? He also hurt his arm and I think it effected his throwing 2nd half a bit. He's at least been average throughout his minor league career at throwing guys out. He's also excellent in just about every other area. Pitchers love throwing to him. He frames pitches well. And he handles himself excellent on popups, ect. Most catchers improve significantly going into their second year defensively as well.
You are the one who cited the "system" as to why he rated so poorly. As if he was actually good back there but the system is flawed. He was awful back there. There are no 2 ways around it. Remember when people used to laugh at Piazza's throwing? 23% caught stealing career, superior to TDA in 2014. Can't sugarcoat everything I'm sorry.
The Outfield
Lagares is easily the best bet on the team to be a 3+ WAR player. But if he regresses slightly, you could make a good argument that the overall output from the OF could decrease since MDD and Kirk were worth about 2.5 WAR combined as well. Granderson's last 2+ WAR season was 2011 and Cuddyer has had 500 AB's in just 1 of the last 3 seasons.
The Infield
Duda and Murphy should match last year. TdA is a safe bet to improve overall. Last year the SS position generated almost 2 WAR between a good year for Tejada and Flores. Right now I'd say best case scenario is matching that.
David Wright?
If he bounces back he will bring a huge upgrade to the overall roster. But is he enough?
The Defense
Worse than last year in the OF with Cuddyer and as presently configured worse than last year on the IF as well with Tejada out.
So again, where is the upgrade? This team needs their Heyward/Upton/Ramirez type acquisition.
The Outfield
Lagares is easily the best bet on the team to be a 3+ WAR player. But if he regresses slightly, you could make a good argument that the overall output from the OF could decrease since MDD and Kirk were worth about 2.5 WAR combined as well. Granderson's last 2+ WAR season was 2011 and Cuddyer has had 500 AB's in just 1 of the last 3 seasons.
The Infield
Duda and Murphy should match last year. TdA is a safe bet to improve overall. Last year the SS position generated almost 2 WAR between a good year for Tejada and Flores. Right now I'd say best case scenario is matching that.
David Wright?
If he bounces back he will bring a huge upgrade to the overall roster. But is he enough?
The Defense
Worse than last year in the OF with Cuddyer and as presently configured worse than last year on the IF as well with Tejada out.
So again, where is the upgrade? This team needs their Heyward/Upton/Ramirez type acquisition.
I think Wright ends up being somewhere in between his 2013 beast year and 2014 terrible year. I think he played through injury, though I do think he's in decline mode.
nobody's arguing that lol. Easily correctable however. If he cuts his passed balls from 12 to 6 he suddenly shoots up. Did any of those passed balls hurt us even in a single game btw?? He also hurt his arm and I think it effected his throwing 2nd half a bit. He's at least been average throughout his minor league career at throwing guys out. He's also excellent in just about every other area. Pitchers love throwing to him. He frames pitches well. And he handles himself excellent on popups, ect. Most catchers improve significantly going into their second year defensively as well.
You are the one who cited the "system" as to why he rated so poorly. As if he was actually good back there but the system is flawed. He was awful back there. There are no 2 ways around it. Remember when people used to laugh at Piazza's throwing? 23% caught stealing career, superior to TDA in 2014. Can't sugarcoat everything I'm sorry.
Sugarcoating everything? I just said he sucked last year defensively. And I just explained why I do hate the "system". So are you saying you don't expect him to improve going into 2015?? Because just about everyone else does.
even mention the system though? He sucked defensively. The system says this, my eyes said this, the "traditional stats" said this. Tough for anyone to be "confident" his defense will improve beyond hope and normal young player improvement. Basically the plus side is it's hard for him to be much worse. I think he will be better if only because his rep was as average defensive player and he was terrible so hopefully he's closer to average.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports that the Phillies "have had the most serious talks" with the Phillies regarding a trade for ace Cole Hamels.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported a few weeks ago that the Red Sox had already rejected a couple of trade proposals from the Phillies, but the dynamic has changed now that the Sox have signed both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. It's easy to make matches between Boston's surpluses and Philly's needs. Hamels, 30, is owed $96 million over the next four seasons with a $24 million option for 2019, but that's not terrible money in this market.
Source: Bob Nightengale on Twitter
Nov 24 - 1:20 P
I'd be on board with either I guess. Also wouldn't mind Lowrie, seems like his lack of power last year was kind of an aberration - just comes down to price. 2 years 18M is probably the max I'd go. Then get something good for Murph and put Flores at 2B. Not the ideal offseason but either option would upgrade the team without losing any significant young assets.
even mention the system though? He sucked defensively. The system says this, my eyes said this, the "traditional stats" said this. Tough for anyone to be "confident" his defense will improve beyond hope and normal young player improvement. Basically the plus side is it's hard for him to be much worse. I think he will be better if only because his rep was as average defensive player and he was terrible so hopefully he's closer to average.
Because myself and a whole lot of smart people believe how we rate catchers defensively needs a whole lot of work. I love using metrics for a lot of things, but catching isn't one of them. I guess my eye test told me he doesn't really suck. One meaningless passed ball less a month and suddenly he's good? Im far more interested in how he handled the pitching staff and how he looked back their as a whole. Im also looking at his minor league stats where he always seemed at least average. I don't have any proof but its far too early to throw in the towel on TDA's defense. I'd actually expect significant improvement heading into year two.
One of the most underrated/undervalued players in the entire game. Whatever the reason Mariners players tend to be underrated (Iwakuma is fantastic as well).
Seager last 3 seasons 12.8 WAR. Will play 2015 as a 27 year old. 4 3b in baseball have been more valuable than Seager the past 3 seasons and odds are 3 of the other 4 are in decline mode while he's in his prime.
That's just not being objective. He couldn't throw anyone out, balls got by him all the time, errors...it was not good.
On the plus side he's got a good arm, frames pitches well, and he's been graded average in the past, but especially at that position it can take time to put it all together.
I get it, the position is weak. No argument here. Being among the best of a very weak crop =/= "fantastic". A .334 OBP is not fantastic, and you'd have to slug a helluva lot more than .454 to be a fantastic player with a .334 OBP.
RE: We've been down this road already with Headley Â
I get it, the position is weak. No argument here. Being among the best of a very weak crop =/= "fantastic". A .334 OBP is not fantastic, and you'd have to slug a helluva lot more than .454 to be a fantastic player with a .334 OBP.
I predict barring injury Seager retires with at least 3-4 all-star games under his belt. Not that all-star game is the end all be all but here is Dave Cameron-
"Seager’s been underrated for essentially his entire career. He was underestimated as a draft prospect, and as a minor leaguer, and now as a very productive big leaguer. He’s headed into the prime of his career as a guy who has already averaged +3.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances. He might not look like a top tier player, but Kyle Seager has developed into an excellent baseball player. "
can't imagine the Mets would deal BOTH Niese and Montero for Miller or Taylor and I say that as a guy who wants Miller. I don't agree with Cerrone at all here. I'd do Gee and Montero though.
Maybe you can dig up all his predictions that Cano would never be any good. Those are always good for a laugh.
WAR overrates the shit out of defense, which is how you end up with Fangraphs listing Alex Gordon as the #5 player in all of baseball, with Josh Donaldson right behind him. They're both listed ahead of Bautista, Stanton, Cabrera, etc. That, in a word, is asinine.
let's ignore metrics for a second. WAR is supposed to tell you the value of the player right? So position matters. Let's just agree that Donaldson is a very good defensive player and not assign a value. He had 98 rbi's, 29 homers with 76 walks (major pitchers park no less) He finished 8th in MVP voting. You don't see why that would be a MONSTER value?
I'm saying he's not as good as a bunch of guys WAR puts him ahead of. If you used his 2013 instead of his 2014, he'd be a lot closer though. His numbers dropped quite a bit from that season to last season.
That's just not being objective. He couldn't throw anyone out, balls got by him all the time, errors...it was not good.
On the plus side he's got a good arm, frames pitches well, and he's been graded average in the past, but especially at that position it can take time to put it all together.
Where did I say that? I said if he shaved off one passed ball a month which likely cost us nothing in the first place suddenly his defensive miscues don't look all that bad. I think that's doable as most catchers improve significantly headed into their second year. I also don't like the way catchers are evaluated defensively as do many others. I am saying I expect improvement next year and based on his history I am not concerned that his defense will be horrid going forward.
The team was a work in progress last year for sure. We completely rolled the dice at 1B, went into a season with a complete hole in the outfield, Tejada at SS and a rotation and bullpen in shambles.
That's not the case anymore. I don't see any holes on this team at all if Flores is the SS.
I think it's more people wanting to guard their expectations which is fine. We are going to have a fantastic rotation, a fantastic bullpen, and a very good NL lineup. The rebuild isn't complete. It won't be for a couple more years in my mind when everyone's reaching their primes but we should be in the mix for a wild card this year and that's all I want.
IMO this offseason they needed to add 1 solid, 3 WAR+, every day player that was still in his prime. I like Cuddyer's bat, but he's not that, he's a nice role player. Going into last year, off an injured 2013 Chris Young was similarly 1 year removed from posting a solid season in 2012. Cuddyer is a much better fit for what this team needs right now, but at this point his addition is a lot closer to the Chris Young signing than the Beltran acquisition in 05. And again, I'm not criticizing the Cuddyer signing, I liked the Young signing last year and I like Cuddyer signing even more. As Boras says, we're still shopping in the same aisles.
Agree 100%. I mean I think the Mets would sign tomorrow for Cuddyer to be as good as Marlon Byrd has been the last 2 seasons but would anyone say the 2014 Mets were a Marlon Byrd away from a good offensive squad?
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
Wrong. The Mets were 9th in the NL in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA so your league claims just aren't true. They were below average offensively and Cuddyer at his very best is a league average LF.
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
Braves, Phillies, Reds and Padres were the only teams worse than the Mets in terms of wOBA. This idea the Mets offense was average because hitting is down is flat false
And that's with no Cuddyer, no Wright, no SS, and a half season of TDA.
Sure I can because Flores is really the only complete unknown heading into 2015 so its fun using a mathematical engine to see where he might go.
Steamer is always extremely conservative and of course isn't going to like Wright, Cuddyer, Granderson, ect with their injury histories. Im cool with that.
Catchers main defensive responsibilities do not revolve around those two factors.
Neither was this thread until it got hijacked!
You are the one who cited the "system" as to why he rated so poorly. As if he was actually good back there but the system is flawed. He was awful back there. There are no 2 ways around it. Remember when people used to laugh at Piazza's throwing? 23% caught stealing career, superior to TDA in 2014. Can't sugarcoat everything I'm sorry.
Lagares is easily the best bet on the team to be a 3+ WAR player. But if he regresses slightly, you could make a good argument that the overall output from the OF could decrease since MDD and Kirk were worth about 2.5 WAR combined as well. Granderson's last 2+ WAR season was 2011 and Cuddyer has had 500 AB's in just 1 of the last 3 seasons.
The Infield
Duda and Murphy should match last year. TdA is a safe bet to improve overall. Last year the SS position generated almost 2 WAR between a good year for Tejada and Flores. Right now I'd say best case scenario is matching that.
David Wright?
If he bounces back he will bring a huge upgrade to the overall roster. But is he enough?
The Defense
Worse than last year in the OF with Cuddyer and as presently configured worse than last year on the IF as well with Tejada out.
So again, where is the upgrade? This team needs their Heyward/Upton/Ramirez type acquisition.
I said half a season offensively because he was basically a pitcher in the lineup for 2 months before he was sent down to Vegas. lol
Lagares is easily the best bet on the team to be a 3+ WAR player. But if he regresses slightly, you could make a good argument that the overall output from the OF could decrease since MDD and Kirk were worth about 2.5 WAR combined as well. Granderson's last 2+ WAR season was 2011 and Cuddyer has had 500 AB's in just 1 of the last 3 seasons.
The Infield
Duda and Murphy should match last year. TdA is a safe bet to improve overall. Last year the SS position generated almost 2 WAR between a good year for Tejada and Flores. Right now I'd say best case scenario is matching that.
David Wright?
If he bounces back he will bring a huge upgrade to the overall roster. But is he enough?
The Defense
Worse than last year in the OF with Cuddyer and as presently configured worse than last year on the IF as well with Tejada out.
So again, where is the upgrade? This team needs their Heyward/Upton/Ramirez type acquisition.
I think Wright ends up being somewhere in between his 2013 beast year and 2014 terrible year. I think he played through injury, though I do think he's in decline mode.
Quote:
nobody's arguing that lol. Easily correctable however. If he cuts his passed balls from 12 to 6 he suddenly shoots up. Did any of those passed balls hurt us even in a single game btw?? He also hurt his arm and I think it effected his throwing 2nd half a bit. He's at least been average throughout his minor league career at throwing guys out. He's also excellent in just about every other area. Pitchers love throwing to him. He frames pitches well. And he handles himself excellent on popups, ect. Most catchers improve significantly going into their second year defensively as well.
You are the one who cited the "system" as to why he rated so poorly. As if he was actually good back there but the system is flawed. He was awful back there. There are no 2 ways around it. Remember when people used to laugh at Piazza's throwing? 23% caught stealing career, superior to TDA in 2014. Can't sugarcoat everything I'm sorry.
Sugarcoating everything? I just said he sucked last year defensively. And I just explained why I do hate the "system". So are you saying you don't expect him to improve going into 2015?? Because just about everyone else does.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports that the Phillies "have had the most serious talks" with the Phillies regarding a trade for ace Cole Hamels.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported a few weeks ago that the Red Sox had already rejected a couple of trade proposals from the Phillies, but the dynamic has changed now that the Sox have signed both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. It's easy to make matches between Boston's surpluses and Philly's needs. Hamels, 30, is owed $96 million over the next four seasons with a $24 million option for 2019, but that's not terrible money in this market.
Source: Bob Nightengale on Twitter
Nov 24 - 1:20 P
Of all signings today, that is by far the best one. Nice.
Because myself and a whole lot of smart people believe how we rate catchers defensively needs a whole lot of work. I love using metrics for a lot of things, but catching isn't one of them. I guess my eye test told me he doesn't really suck. One meaningless passed ball less a month and suddenly he's good? Im far more interested in how he handled the pitching staff and how he looked back their as a whole. Im also looking at his minor league stats where he always seemed at least average. I don't have any proof but its far too early to throw in the towel on TDA's defense. I'd actually expect significant improvement heading into year two.
I could be wrong, but I believe he was top 20 WAR positional player in all of baseball last year.
One of the most underrated/undervalued players in the entire game. Whatever the reason Mariners players tend to be underrated (Iwakuma is fantastic as well).
Seager last 3 seasons 12.8 WAR. Will play 2015 as a 27 year old. 4 3b in baseball have been more valuable than Seager the past 3 seasons and odds are 3 of the other 4 are in decline mode while he's in his prime.
On the plus side he's got a good arm, frames pitches well, and he's been graded average in the past, but especially at that position it can take time to put it all together.
I predict barring injury Seager retires with at least 3-4 all-star games under his belt. Not that all-star game is the end all be all but here is Dave Cameron-
"Seager’s been underrated for essentially his entire career. He was underestimated as a draft prospect, and as a minor leaguer, and now as a very productive big leaguer. He’s headed into the prime of his career as a guy who has already averaged +3.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances. He might not look like a top tier player, but Kyle Seager has developed into an excellent baseball player. "
WAR overrates the shit out of defense, which is how you end up with Fangraphs listing Alex Gordon as the #5 player in all of baseball, with Josh Donaldson right behind him. They're both listed ahead of Bautista, Stanton, Cabrera, etc. That, in a word, is asinine.
7.7 WAR in 77 career starts 7.2 WAR last 2 seasons
Iwakuma and Quintana, the rare ex-Met and ex-Yankee 2 of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.
On the plus side he's got a good arm, frames pitches well, and he's been graded average in the past, but especially at that position it can take time to put it all together.
Where did I say that? I said if he shaved off one passed ball a month which likely cost us nothing in the first place suddenly his defensive miscues don't look all that bad. I think that's doable as most catchers improve significantly headed into their second year. I also don't like the way catchers are evaluated defensively as do many others. I am saying I expect improvement next year and based on his history I am not concerned that his defense will be horrid going forward.
"Your hate has made you powerful. Now, fulfill your destiny and take the Yankees place at my side!"
"Your hate has made you powerful. Now, fulfill your destiny and take the Yankees place at my side!"