Not for the Sox. They aren't trading Bogaerts anytime soon and certainly not for a pitching "prospect". I can't imagine the Mets have any single player outside of Harvey that the Sox take 1-1 for Bogaerts and that includes deGrom and Wheeler.
Left-hander Jon Lester also is on the Soxs wish list, and the team is talking about a reunion with lefty reliever Andrew Miller as well. A number of starting pitchers, including Phillies ace Cole Hamels, also are available in trade.-Rosenthal
is probably not a 1 for 1 deal, but I would be so dismissive.
I get he was young, but that's the age where D is supposed to be passable. at SS IMO it's unlikely to get much better if at all, and Bogaerts was a butcher there and will almost certainly need to move off the position.
Bogaerts is a prospect still himself unless you were wowed by his .660 OPS.
is probably not a 1 for 1 deal, but I would be so dismissive.
I get he was young, but that's the age where D is supposed to be passable. at SS IMO it's unlikely to get much better if at all, and Bogaerts was a butcher there and will almost certainly need to move off the position.
Bogaerts is a prospect still himself unless you were wowed by his .660 OPS.
II don't think that you can merely look at his OPS and make any great conclusions. Haven't looked it up yet but my recollection that his OPS over the season was pretty U-shaped.
is probably not a 1 for 1 deal, but I would be so dismissive.
I get he was young, but that's the age where D is supposed to be passable. at SS IMO it's unlikely to get much better if at all, and Bogaerts was a butcher there and will almost certainly need to move off the position.
Bogaerts is a prospect still himself unless you were wowed by his .660 OPS.
II don't think that you can merely look at his OPS and make any great conclusions. Haven't looked it up yet but my recollection that his OPS over the season was pretty U-shaped.
Correct. He was awful June-Aug. Decent to good otherwise.
I'm personally gonna send Kung Fu Panda some Mike's Pastry
I agree you can't, and I have no doubt he'll be a good hitter, possibly a great hitter, but he was considered so special because he was projected to be a good to great hitter while remaining at SS.
I think moving (if that's happens) him lessens the projection (and probably the pressure) a little and I don't think his rookie season enforces him as untouchable or even harder to attain.
Most Sox fans I talk to consider his rookie year a mild disappointment. not major and not like he was overwhelmed, but they just had higher expectations due to the hype and the way he handled himself in the post-season.
really good the first part of the season and then terrible when they moved him to third base for like 2-3 months, and then hit pretty well towards the end of the season. He'll probably never be a great fielder (he was adequate for stretches during the year), but it still seems likely he can hit and hit for power and be selective on pitches. He's so young, but he's a lot like Manny Machado but not as good a fielder, but potentially with even more power.
to remember... Mets fans hope/expect a better 2nd season fro TDA... he will play 2015 as a 26 year old (he graded out as THE WORST defensive catcher in baseball by the metrics yet many/most expect improvement going forward)... Bogaerts will be 23 years old for the entire 2015 season. Zack Wheeler, another player many expect/hope to improve in 2015 is 25 in May. Bogaerts likely never becomes a "great" fielder but he doesn't have to. If he hits like most expect him to he only needs to be "passable" at SS. He's always have the Hanley Ramirez comp and that seems apt. If Bogaerts is dealt it will be for a proven stud like Hamels not a pitching prospect. Sox are looking to win the 2015 WS not watch a pitching prospect potentially struggle through his rookie season (as most do).
pitching prospects (even the best) rarely are enough to bring back good young hitting prospects.
Thor for Alexei Ramirez is a more fair deal than Xander (not that I would ever make such a swap). But in terms of realistic deals/asking prices, Ramirez a top 10 player at his position coming off a good year with no health problems for a pitching prospect like Thor is more in line with "fair" and I can't imagine ANY Mets fans would want the Mets to do that.
Let me preface that I want to see Foores starting at 2B and not at SS.
But
Flores compares very favorably with Boegarts. Similar players, similar minor league numbers, similar size, similar age, similar defense. Not clones, but surprisingly similar profiles. One barely gets talked about and is lucky to be named a top 100 prospect. The other is considered top echelon of prospects the past few years.
Yet one player half the fans want to dump, and another the most respected Mets fan on this board feels would be traded for nothing less than Harvey. As a Mets fan, if I was FORCED to stick with Flores at SS and keep DeGrom/Wheeler, or get Boegarts and lose a prized pitcher?? As much as I'd like BoegRts in a Mets uni, we already have a lite version of him.
I just wonder where Betts fits into the picture now though.
100% not suggesting I want to trade deGrom but I wonder if his trade value is below where it normally would be for a guy with his season ie we never heard teams absolutely loved him until he came up. Do they throw out their previous reports? or view him as a guy who pitched over his head?
Let me preface that I want to see Foores starting at 2B and not at SS.
But
Flores compares very favorably with Boegarts. Similar players, similar minor league numbers, similar size, similar age, similar defense. Not clones, but surprisingly similar profiles. One barely gets talked about and is lucky to be named a top 100 prospect. The other is considered top echelon of prospects the past few years.
Yet one player half the fans want to dump, and another the most respected Mets fan on this board feels would be traded for nothing less than Harvey. As a Mets fan, if I was FORCED to stick with Flores at SS and keep DeGrom/Wheeler, or get Boegarts and lose a prized pitcher?? As much as I'd like BoegRts in a Mets uni, we already have a lite version of him.
I just wonder where Betts fits into the picture now though.
This post is very on point. I'm with you preferring Flores at 2B instead of SS and I'm on the front lines of wanting to upgrade the defense up the middle any way possibly. But I can't see the logic in trading Syndergaard for a SS that isn't a big upgrade over Flores defensively, or at least extremely proven offensively. That's why the Seattle guys make sense, they're both good defensively and presumably wouldn't cost Thor, though not sure either will be readily available now that Hanley is off the market. I know it's never going to happen but Tulowitzki is the only player out there I'd give up Syndergaard for.
Sox reportedly loved how he looked with the bat but questioned if CF is his best position due to his instincts. Long term their OF will likely be Hanley with Castillo and Betts. Victorino and Cespedes will be goners soon enough. Craig could be flipped too but at least he can play 1b as well.
Before signing Hanley, Sox already had wayyyyy to many OF. If they are signing Hanley to play LF, that logjam got even worse. Obviously Betts won't play 2B for the Sox, and their Of situation is already beyond overcrowded.
Just seems that one of Boegarts and Betts would be moved for a young cost controlled arm. And I would go after Betts over Boegarts ten out of ten times.
think Betts is going to be very, very good. I think he's the kind of player where even Yankee fans give him his "respect". He has essentially no major flaws to his game. Speed, eye at the plate, athleticism, glove. I'd deal Thor or Wheeler for him in a millisecond. Doubt there is any chance the Sox would consider either. Bogaerts in a deal for Hamels is the one deal I could see making sense.
Betts were bigger he'd be a consensus top 10 prospect in the game and in fact I'd take him over quite a few guys who are considered top 10 depending on team need of course.
Sox reportedly loved how he looked with the bat but questioned if CF is his best position due to his instincts. Long term their OF will likely be Hanley with Castillo and Betts. Victorino and Cespedes will be goners soon enough. Craig could be flipped too but at least he can play 1b as well.
Victorino isn't going to bring back much. Cespedes is still overvalued by some, but it's not a coincidence that if he is dealt it would be his 3rd team in 6 months. Craig is nothing special but he needs to spell Napoli and his remarkably persevering hip.
And before I cry myself to sleep tonight I'm going to remember the fate of the last Boston shopping spree, and pretty much every other shopping spree of consequence save the 2009 Yankees, which still blew up a couple years later.
Wheeler probably nets a better return than DeGrom would. People cling to their scouting reports. A smart front office would look at DeGrom and wonder if the league will figure him out his second go round. Then realize "oh shit, he actually IMPROVED as the year went on"...
DeGroms growth has definitely made Wheeler more expendable than anyone could have previously thought. DeGrom already is what everyone hoped Wheeler would become. Wheeler is still John Maine 2.0, but with trade value. And closer to free agency than DeGrom is.
They might have trouble moving him.
Mets will likely have trouble moving Colon. Still.
Could definitely see a Victorino for Colon swap if neither has been moved in February.
to be clear I'm not suggesting Victorino brings back something amazing. I just think he's going to be dealt. I'm pretty sure they can land a Colon caliber pitcher for him. Cespedes will still bring back something decent given the market, 1 year of control doesn't help however.
seems like Hamels to the Sox makes sense on paper for various reasons. Cueto is reportedly available as well but hard to see him moved considering his value is hard to decipher given his pending FA status.
seems like Hamels to the Sox makes sense on paper for various reasons. Cueto is reportedly available as well but hard to see him moved considering his value is hard to decipher given his pending FA status.
Fangraphs broke down a return for Hamels. It was nothing special. They basically said Owens, Boegarts, Betts, Holt, both catchers, and another pitcher would be off the table.
If I am the Phillies, I am asking for Betts, Kelly, either Owens/Ranuado, and one lower prospect.
I would love to have had him on the Mets staff. Hard to determine who is the bigger competitor, him or Harvey. But, Hamels has pitched through some aches and pains over the years that a lot of other pitchers wouldn't have pitched through. And as good as Hamels has been through his career - not quite sure he was ever a 4/$100mm type of player. So huge financial risk and injury risk, with limited upside value with that contract. Throw in the assets you have to move to get him...
Was hoping Panda would sign early enough, and thankfully it appears he will. Next few weeks make or break Murphys trade prospects. I like him as a player, love him as a person - but his greatest value to the Mets is in a trade at this point.
Catch 22 though is, Mets seem hesitant to move Murphy until they have a better grasp on the SS market.
Buy Buster an infielder's glove and let Susac and Hector Sanchez play C. Or, see if they can get anything for Belt and move Buster to 1B though Sabean seems to love Belt. Both ideas are dreams as I believe the plan is to keep Posey at C for at least 2 more years.
Grandy for Andrus
Wheeler and Leather for Betts
Deal Murphy for a high ceiling A baller and a Lefty reliever.
Colon for Victorino
Offer a few minor league deals to vet loogys stash in Vegas
Cespedes and Napoli expendable. Sox have a lot of fungible arms to throw in also. I expect they will acquire at least one good arm and I'm not so sure it will be Hamels. Philly gm is not an overly reasonable individual.
RE: Napoli could be the centerpiece of a deal for a front line
Could Murphy make sense for Toronto, SF, NYY or SD now? Murphy looks like a Padre to me.
I think Murphy goes to one of these teams during the winter meetings. Would love to get that guy Pompey you mentioned from TOR or a good young arm. I could also see Sandy being a little more aggressive than expected for a SS since Hanley went to a team that didn't need a SS and didn't take a team out of the market.
Don't see Wheeler or JdG going anywhere and also don't see the Sox moving Victorino. Very low risk contract, likely very little trade value, and big potential. Cespedes is the obvious guy to trade and I'd imagine someone will give them a solid pitcher for him.
Napoli has significant power from the right side. There is not a lot of that available. I think he could be a piece with arms or near MLB ready prospects for a significant arm coming back. Betts, Bogy, Swihart and Vasquez aren't going anywhere unless there is a major haul coming back.
Napoli has significant power from the right side. There is not a lot of that available. I think he could be a piece with arms or near MLB ready prospects for a significant arm coming back. Betts, Bogy, Swihart and Vasquez aren't going anywhere unless there is a major haul coming back.
They probably won't deal Napoli, but Victorino, Cespedes and Craig could all be dealt. If Swihart is the catcher of the future Vazquez could be dealt. They have a glut of pitchers with pro potential but who don't project as mid-rotation, much less front of the rotation, and some of those will probably be dealt.
I don't think Victorino or Craig have much value at this point.
That could change by the trading deadline. Cespedes is all but gone it would seem. Marrero and Ceccini could both be in a deal.
None of this will mean jack shit if they don't get at least one if not two front line starters. They have a glut of middling prospects that will jam the 40 man roster if not moved. Cespedes and (I believe) Napoli offer some immediate value / skillsets that could be packaged with prospects to get a decent return.
Napoli has not fallen apart like I expected two years ago. He could be a short term solution for someone in need of some middle of the lineup pop.
RE: man is this thread suffused with wishful thinking
doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
with Bogaerts? I know people like his tools a lot but in my eyes he's a prospect because at this point he's had next to no success as a hitter in the major leagues. I still like him quite a bit but he has not hit well at all
Let me preface that I want to see Foores starting at 2B and not at SS.
But
Flores compares very favorably with Boegarts. Similar players, similar minor league numbers, similar size, similar age, similar defense. Not clones, but surprisingly similar profiles. One barely gets talked about and is lucky to be named a top 100 prospect. The other is considered top echelon of prospects the past few years.
Yet one player half the fans want to dump, and another the most respected Mets fan on this board feels would be traded for nothing less than Harvey. As a Mets fan, if I was FORCED to stick with Flores at SS and keep DeGrom/Wheeler, or get Boegarts and lose a prized pitcher?? As much as I'd like BoegRts in a Mets uni, we already have a lite version of him.
I just wonder where Betts fits into the picture now though.
This is dead on except I think he can handle SS for a few years. He looked good there last year, has a rocket of an arm, and with another offseason working with Barwis and a full offseason actually training for the position, he shows up even better. He's projected as a 2.5 WAR SS next year which is better than just about every other SS out there and we give up nothing and I think he actually exceeds that greatly if his defense holds up.
But if he starts 125 games at SS for the Mets, something went horribly wrong. Or we are playing for 2016. Even if he becomes a 2 WAR SS, that's not the plan.
projects Flores to be worth 1.9 WAR in 125 games. Steamer is fun and all but the projections systems are just that.
So Steamer is either predicting an injury or a lack of playing time? It seems like it expects him to produce at a 2.5/3 WAR "rate" per season if he stays in the lineup.
I'd like a Ryan Ludwick as a power righty off the bench who can also play a little RF when Cuddyer shifts to 1st. There's plenty other options for this role but he's my favorite.
I'd like a Phil Coke as a lefty specialist but there's some interesting Rule V guys available too. The bullpen looks damn near finished.
Id see if we can get Miller for a Neise/Gee and a second tier prospects and have him compete with Flores in spring training. Maybe they can even share time as a lefty/righty mix for a bit.
That's it. The Mets are slated to have an above average offensive player at every single player int heir lineup right now which is rare for todays MLB. You aren't going to have gold glovers at every position. That's the tradeoff. Personally offense is much more important to this team and this teams pitching staff then upgrading the average defense in the middle infield.
doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
But if he starts 125 games at SS for the Mets, something went horribly wrong. Or we are playing for 2016. Even if he becomes a 2 WAR SS, that's not the plan.
Something went horribly wrong? What are you basing this off of? He's slated as your 8th hitter right now. The team is doomed if he doesn't live up to his offensive attributes? The defense again??
doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
Yeah I feel the same way. They are likely willing to keep him as depth. We've all gone over Colon a million times so I won't rehash it but I think the Sox likely wouldn't see Colon as a reason to deal Victorino.
But if everything stayed exactly the same and TDA only played half a season, Degrom only played half a season, the bullpen was in flux for 2 months, Duda only played 4 moths, Granderson took 2.5 months off, and Wright doesn't play at all, we are basically 8 wins better.
Replacing a negative WAR player in Gee with one of the best pitchers in baseball in Harvey is likely worth 4 more wins. Replacing the absolute worst LF production in the majors with the batting champ from last offseason is worth at least 2-3 more wins. Replacing Flores with Tejada is likely worth another win or two at least as well. And that's if everything else is a disaster and we get no improvement from anywhere.
I'm not even sure if he is Plan F at short, yet alone plan B or A. Keep in mind, a lot of the higher ups aren't even sure Flores can handle 2B still. You think they want him at SS?
If Flores is still the starting SS in September 2015 - it means either nothing went according to plan, or somehow Flores has shocked the world and is average+ at SS and a top 3 offensive SS in the entire game. Not saying it can't happen, but no one is planning on it.
doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
Yeah I feel the same way. They are likely willing to keep him as depth. We've all gone over Colon a million times so I won't rehash it but I think the Sox likely wouldn't see Colon as a reason to deal Victorino.
Victorino's upside is just too high to deal. I've seen a lot of comments from Sox writers about how much they value his defense in RF and what their record was when he was healthy out there. The guy has been a pretty big part of 2 championship teams and he's got a reasonable 1 year deal. Just no reason to dump that.
The most pivotal part of this offseason for the Mets is what they can get for Murphy. If they can't get something good for him I fear the rest of the offseason will basically play out exactly as ZG predicted, which IMO will make them at best 50-50 for a playoff spot.
Basically all you have to do is look at the 2014 Mets second half vs 1st half - and that's our 2015 team. Some guys will progress further, some will get injured/regress.
Basically all you have to do is look at the 2014 Mets second half vs 1st half - and that's our 2015 team. Some guys will progress further, some will get injured/regress.
How do you figure that? Id agree with this to an extent and we were above .500 but you still have nobody in an outfield spot, Gee sucking opposed to Harvey, and Tejada still playing the majority of the games until September.
No clue what his value is, but I assume everyone is blinded by his 2013 WAR when valuing him. He's older, coming off injuries and a sub par season. Not saying he is worthless, but he is worth more to another team than the Sox. How many teams in all of MLB have a 4th or 5th OF making $13mm?
Keep in mind the Sox CURRENT OFF. Castillo, Cespedes, Craig, Betts, Bradley JR, Holt, Nava and Victorino. Saying it's crowded is an understatement. It's STILL crowded even if they trade Cespededes AND Craig.
I have to assume even the Sox look at Victorino at $13mm as a major luxury. The same way Mets fans undervalue Colon as a starting pitcher at $11mm.
I'm not even sure if he is Plan F at short, yet alone plan B or A. Keep in mind, a lot of the higher ups aren't even sure Flores can handle 2B still. You think they want him at SS?
If Flores is still the starting SS in September 2015 - it means either nothing went according to plan, or somehow Flores has shocked the world and is average+ at SS and a top 3 offensive SS in the entire game. Not saying it can't happen, but no one is planning on it.
Well that's true if you are going off what the plan was Pre-2014. Flores changed his perception based upon his production in my eyes and the organizations eyes. I think if there is a true upgrade out there, Sandy will go after him if we aren't giving up the moon but I also think he's pretty content going with him if we aren't brining a true upgrade. That's the boat Im in.
Because MdD played pretty well down the stretch in LF. And Flores played well at SS. Not sure I would guarantee a full 2015 season will be major upgrades vs 2nd half last year. Call it a win or two tops. And sure gee to Harvey is an expected bump, but odds are Harvey isn't 2013 Harvey in 2015. And if he is, can Wheeler and DeGrom not regress any? Who knows. But I think if the season starts today and all we did was add Cuddyer and Harvey, I wouldn't count on a major improvement in 2015 over the second half of 2014. And that's not a negative comment, I just think most Mets fans don't realize the team wasn't horrendous in the second half.
Again, I'm one of Flores's biggest fans here. And I wish I could agree with you. But I can assure you Flores starting at SS would be considered a disappointing offseason. The opinion of him in many eyes has improved, but hard not to improve from an afterthought. 12 months ago, many viewed Flores the way Puello is viewed now - scary thought.
Hanley deal 4 years / 88M - with 22M vesting option on a 5th year
Because MdD played pretty well down the stretch in LF. And Flores played well at SS. Not sure I would guarantee a full 2015 season will be major upgrades vs 2nd half last year. Call it a win or two tops. And sure gee to Harvey is an expected bump, but odds are Harvey isn't 2013 Harvey in 2015. And if he is, can Wheeler and DeGrom not regress any? Who knows. But I think if the season starts today and all we did was add Cuddyer and Harvey, I wouldn't count on a major improvement in 2015 over the second half of 2014. And that's not a negative comment, I just think most Mets fans don't realize the team wasn't horrendous in the second half.
I agree with what you are saying but MDD and Flores weren't anointed their positions until the last week of August. Think you are overstating how much they've contributed. harvey doesn't have to be Clayton kershaw good like he was in 2013 to still be an absolutely monumental upgrade from Gee's production.
You are also taking nothing else into account which is fine. But if Wright is healthy he adds nothing?? How about Granderson and the new short porch? How about Duda getting helped even further from said porch. How about Montero/Maszzoni/ Herrera/Syndergaard/Matz forcing their way into roles before the year is out? I think everyone is underselling this team a ton.
RE: Hanley deal 4 years / 88M - with 22M vesting option on a 5th year
I hate to argue with you, so I won't continue to. Especially since it's about Flores. But I will give you a little statistical hint. How many balls out of the zone did Flores get to? And how did that compare around the league? They don't WANT Flores playing SS.
of the best in baseball at handling balls in the zone which is far more important. Outside of the zone he didn't handle as well but again thats true for most SS(i.e. the zone is outside a normal SS range) and he didn't really get many chances anyway. There's a much larger sample of him handling balls with moderate difficulty.
Don't we want him to be good at the plays he should be good at?? Aren't we all drooling at what Flores could do with the bat at that position?? Do we need him to be "Simmons good" too?
It's that simple. They cannot just count on young players to improve and on older guys who were injured/ineffective to come back 100%. Yes both of those things can happen, and if they do that's great - icing on the cake - as it was in 06 when everything came together at once. But they need to do more to improve the team.
IMO this offseason they needed to add 1 solid, 3 WAR+, every day player that was still in his prime. I like Cuddyer's bat, but he's not that, he's a nice role player. Going into last year, off an injured 2013 Chris Young was similarly 1 year removed from posting a solid season in 2012. Cuddyer is a much better fit for what this team needs right now, but at this point his addition is a lot closer to the Chris Young signing than the Beltran acquisition in 05. And again, I'm not criticizing the Cuddyer signing, I liked the Young signing last year and I like Cuddyer signing even more. As Boras says, we're still shopping in the same aisles.
I think Hanley will be excellent offensively when healthy,
Who's slated to start on this team that isn't proven? Flores? TDA maybe? We went through a painful rebuild for 4 years and part of that is allowing our top prospects a chance to break in.
The team was a work in progress last year for sure. We completely rolled the dice at 1B, went into a season with a complete hole in the outfield, Tejada at SS and a rotation and bullpen in shambles.
That's not the case anymore. I don't see any holes on this team at all if Flores is the SS.
I think it's more people wanting to guard their expectations which is fine. We are going to have a fantastic rotation, a fantastic bullpen, and a very good NL lineup. The rebuild isn't complete. It won't be for a couple more years in my mind when everyone's reaching their primes but we should be in the mix for a wild card this year and that's all I want.
It's that simple. They cannot just count on young players to improve and on older guys who were injured/ineffective to come back 100%. Yes both of those things can happen, and if they do that's great - icing on the cake - as it was in 06 when everything came together at once. But they need to do more to improve the team.
IMO this offseason they needed to add 1 solid, 3 WAR+, every day player that was still in his prime. I like Cuddyer's bat, but he's not that, he's a nice role player. Going into last year, off an injured 2013 Chris Young was similarly 1 year removed from posting a solid season in 2012. Cuddyer is a much better fit for what this team needs right now, but at this point his addition is a lot closer to the Chris Young signing than the Beltran acquisition in 05. And again, I'm not criticizing the Cuddyer signing, I liked the Young signing last year and I like Cuddyer signing even more. As Boras says, we're still shopping in the same aisles.
Agree 100%. I mean I think the Mets would sign tomorrow for Cuddyer to be as good as Marlon Byrd has been the last 2 seasons but would anyone say the 2014 Mets were a Marlon Byrd away from a good offensive squad?
in retrospect to other teams NL lineups and considering the hole it was filling. Every single player in our lineup is slated to be above average. Every one. On top of that, we have depth. Any player in our lineup can go down for a while and we could fill the hole with a pretty good option.
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
in retrospect to other teams NL lineups and considering the hole it was filling. Every single player in our lineup is slated to be above average. Every one. On top of that, we have depth. Any player in our lineup can go down for a while and we could fill the hole with a pretty good option.
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
Wrong. The Mets were 9th in the NL in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA so your league claims just aren't true. They were below average offensively and Cuddyer at his very best is a league average LF.
in retrospect to other teams NL lineups and considering the hole it was filling. Every single player in our lineup is slated to be above average. Every one. On top of that, we have depth. Any player in our lineup can go down for a while and we could fill the hole with a pretty good option.
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
Braves, Phillies, Reds and Padres were the only teams worse than the Mets in terms of wOBA. This idea the Mets offense was average because hitting is down is flat false
we are going to play the projections game it won't turn out very well for your argument. Steamer absolutely despises the Mets roster on the whole. Can't pick and choose.
we are going to play the projections game it won't turn out very well for your argument. Steamer absolutely despises the Mets roster on the whole. Can't pick and choose.
Sure I can because Flores is really the only complete unknown heading into 2015 so its fun using a mathematical engine to see where he might go.
Steamer is always extremely conservative and of course isn't going to like Wright, Cuddyer, Granderson, ect with their injury histories. Im cool with that.
to what the lineup can do offensively. I don't really care about what Steamer thinks of Duda's defense, Granderson's defense(which I think will be good with a move to LF) or TDA's which is a ridiculous formula for rating catchers anyway.
to mention, 99% of BBI's Mets fans agreed he was awful blocking balls in the dirt and he was well below average throwing. What formula would make his defense look good?
nobody's arguing that lol. Easily correctable however. If he cuts his passed balls from 12 to 6 he suddenly shoots up. Did any of those passed balls hurt us even in a single game btw?? He also hurt his arm and I think it effected his throwing 2nd half a bit. He's at least been average throughout his minor league career at throwing guys out. He's also excellent in just about every other area. Pitchers love throwing to him. He frames pitches well. And he handles himself excellent on popups, ect. Most catchers improve significantly going into their second year defensively as well.
about TDA's defense at all yet. And yeah I despise the formula for evaluating a catcher's defense which basically revolves around passed balls(errors)and throwing guys out.
Catchers main defensive responsibilities do not revolve around those two factors.
nobody's arguing that lol. Easily correctable however. If he cuts his passed balls from 12 to 6 he suddenly shoots up. Did any of those passed balls hurt us even in a single game btw?? He also hurt his arm and I think it effected his throwing 2nd half a bit. He's at least been average throughout his minor league career at throwing guys out. He's also excellent in just about every other area. Pitchers love throwing to him. He frames pitches well. And he handles himself excellent on popups, ect. Most catchers improve significantly going into their second year defensively as well.
You are the one who cited the "system" as to why he rated so poorly. As if he was actually good back there but the system is flawed. He was awful back there. There are no 2 ways around it. Remember when people used to laugh at Piazza's throwing? 23% caught stealing career, superior to TDA in 2014. Can't sugarcoat everything I'm sorry.
The Outfield
Lagares is easily the best bet on the team to be a 3+ WAR player. But if he regresses slightly, you could make a good argument that the overall output from the OF could decrease since MDD and Kirk were worth about 2.5 WAR combined as well. Granderson's last 2+ WAR season was 2011 and Cuddyer has had 500 AB's in just 1 of the last 3 seasons.
The Infield
Duda and Murphy should match last year. TdA is a safe bet to improve overall. Last year the SS position generated almost 2 WAR between a good year for Tejada and Flores. Right now I'd say best case scenario is matching that.
David Wright?
If he bounces back he will bring a huge upgrade to the overall roster. But is he enough?
The Defense
Worse than last year in the OF with Cuddyer and as presently configured worse than last year on the IF as well with Tejada out.
So again, where is the upgrade? This team needs their Heyward/Upton/Ramirez type acquisition.
The Outfield
Lagares is easily the best bet on the team to be a 3+ WAR player. But if he regresses slightly, you could make a good argument that the overall output from the OF could decrease since MDD and Kirk were worth about 2.5 WAR combined as well. Granderson's last 2+ WAR season was 2011 and Cuddyer has had 500 AB's in just 1 of the last 3 seasons.
The Infield
Duda and Murphy should match last year. TdA is a safe bet to improve overall. Last year the SS position generated almost 2 WAR between a good year for Tejada and Flores. Right now I'd say best case scenario is matching that.
David Wright?
If he bounces back he will bring a huge upgrade to the overall roster. But is he enough?
The Defense
Worse than last year in the OF with Cuddyer and as presently configured worse than last year on the IF as well with Tejada out.
So again, where is the upgrade? This team needs their Heyward/Upton/Ramirez type acquisition.
I think Wright ends up being somewhere in between his 2013 beast year and 2014 terrible year. I think he played through injury, though I do think he's in decline mode.
nobody's arguing that lol. Easily correctable however. If he cuts his passed balls from 12 to 6 he suddenly shoots up. Did any of those passed balls hurt us even in a single game btw?? He also hurt his arm and I think it effected his throwing 2nd half a bit. He's at least been average throughout his minor league career at throwing guys out. He's also excellent in just about every other area. Pitchers love throwing to him. He frames pitches well. And he handles himself excellent on popups, ect. Most catchers improve significantly going into their second year defensively as well.
You are the one who cited the "system" as to why he rated so poorly. As if he was actually good back there but the system is flawed. He was awful back there. There are no 2 ways around it. Remember when people used to laugh at Piazza's throwing? 23% caught stealing career, superior to TDA in 2014. Can't sugarcoat everything I'm sorry.
Sugarcoating everything? I just said he sucked last year defensively. And I just explained why I do hate the "system". So are you saying you don't expect him to improve going into 2015?? Because just about everyone else does.
even mention the system though? He sucked defensively. The system says this, my eyes said this, the "traditional stats" said this. Tough for anyone to be "confident" his defense will improve beyond hope and normal young player improvement. Basically the plus side is it's hard for him to be much worse. I think he will be better if only because his rep was as average defensive player and he was terrible so hopefully he's closer to average.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports that the Phillies "have had the most serious talks" with the Phillies regarding a trade for ace Cole Hamels.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported a few weeks ago that the Red Sox had already rejected a couple of trade proposals from the Phillies, but the dynamic has changed now that the Sox have signed both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. It's easy to make matches between Boston's surpluses and Philly's needs. Hamels, 30, is owed $96 million over the next four seasons with a $24 million option for 2019, but that's not terrible money in this market.
Source: Bob Nightengale on Twitter
Nov 24 - 1:20 P
I'd be on board with either I guess. Also wouldn't mind Lowrie, seems like his lack of power last year was kind of an aberration - just comes down to price. 2 years 18M is probably the max I'd go. Then get something good for Murph and put Flores at 2B. Not the ideal offseason but either option would upgrade the team without losing any significant young assets.
even mention the system though? He sucked defensively. The system says this, my eyes said this, the "traditional stats" said this. Tough for anyone to be "confident" his defense will improve beyond hope and normal young player improvement. Basically the plus side is it's hard for him to be much worse. I think he will be better if only because his rep was as average defensive player and he was terrible so hopefully he's closer to average.
Because myself and a whole lot of smart people believe how we rate catchers defensively needs a whole lot of work. I love using metrics for a lot of things, but catching isn't one of them. I guess my eye test told me he doesn't really suck. One meaningless passed ball less a month and suddenly he's good? Im far more interested in how he handled the pitching staff and how he looked back their as a whole. Im also looking at his minor league stats where he always seemed at least average. I don't have any proof but its far too early to throw in the towel on TDA's defense. I'd actually expect significant improvement heading into year two.
One of the most underrated/undervalued players in the entire game. Whatever the reason Mariners players tend to be underrated (Iwakuma is fantastic as well).
Seager last 3 seasons 12.8 WAR. Will play 2015 as a 27 year old. 4 3b in baseball have been more valuable than Seager the past 3 seasons and odds are 3 of the other 4 are in decline mode while he's in his prime.
That's just not being objective. He couldn't throw anyone out, balls got by him all the time, errors...it was not good.
On the plus side he's got a good arm, frames pitches well, and he's been graded average in the past, but especially at that position it can take time to put it all together.
I get it, the position is weak. No argument here. Being among the best of a very weak crop =/= "fantastic". A .334 OBP is not fantastic, and you'd have to slug a helluva lot more than .454 to be a fantastic player with a .334 OBP.
RE: We've been down this road already with Headley
I get it, the position is weak. No argument here. Being among the best of a very weak crop =/= "fantastic". A .334 OBP is not fantastic, and you'd have to slug a helluva lot more than .454 to be a fantastic player with a .334 OBP.
I predict barring injury Seager retires with at least 3-4 all-star games under his belt. Not that all-star game is the end all be all but here is Dave Cameron-
"Seagers been underrated for essentially his entire career. He was underestimated as a draft prospect, and as a minor leaguer, and now as a very productive big leaguer. Hes headed into the prime of his career as a guy who has already averaged +3.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances. He might not look like a top tier player, but Kyle Seager has developed into an excellent baseball player. "
can't imagine the Mets would deal BOTH Niese and Montero for Miller or Taylor and I say that as a guy who wants Miller. I don't agree with Cerrone at all here. I'd do Gee and Montero though.
Maybe you can dig up all his predictions that Cano would never be any good. Those are always good for a laugh.
WAR overrates the shit out of defense, which is how you end up with Fangraphs listing Alex Gordon as the #5 player in all of baseball, with Josh Donaldson right behind him. They're both listed ahead of Bautista, Stanton, Cabrera, etc. That, in a word, is asinine.
let's ignore metrics for a second. WAR is supposed to tell you the value of the player right? So position matters. Let's just agree that Donaldson is a very good defensive player and not assign a value. He had 98 rbi's, 29 homers with 76 walks (major pitchers park no less) He finished 8th in MVP voting. You don't see why that would be a MONSTER value?
I'm saying he's not as good as a bunch of guys WAR puts him ahead of. If you used his 2013 instead of his 2014, he'd be a lot closer though. His numbers dropped quite a bit from that season to last season.
That's just not being objective. He couldn't throw anyone out, balls got by him all the time, errors...it was not good.
On the plus side he's got a good arm, frames pitches well, and he's been graded average in the past, but especially at that position it can take time to put it all together.
Where did I say that? I said if he shaved off one passed ball a month which likely cost us nothing in the first place suddenly his defensive miscues don't look all that bad. I think that's doable as most catchers improve significantly headed into their second year. I also don't like the way catchers are evaluated defensively as do many others. I am saying I expect improvement next year and based on his history I am not concerned that his defense will be horrid going forward.
not sure hanley can play OF and that leaves either 3b or SS.
I guess he could DH, but if he does than means the end of Ortiz. Not sure Ortiz to Hanley is a significant upgrade at this point.
Sandoval has agreement to go to the red sox for 5 years, close to 100M
Sandoval has agreement to go to the red sox for 5 years, close to 100M
Suckers
Redsox could be lineup
RF Holt or Victorino
2b Pedroia
ss Hanley
DH Ortiz
LF Cespedes
3b Sandoval
1b Napoli
cf Castillo
C Vasquez (#1 on depth chart right now)
Middlebrooks? I've got an idea or 40.
BTW, if they sign Sandoval (which I hope they don't), Ramirez goes to the OF and many trades are made following.
not sure hanley can play OF and that leaves either 3b or SS.
I guess he could DH, but if he does than means the end of Ortiz. Not sure Ortiz to Hanley is a significant upgrade at this point.
They've got Little League dimensions in LF. I'm sure Hanley can be passable out there.
Not for the Sox. They aren't trading Bogaerts anytime soon and certainly not for a pitching "prospect". I can't imagine the Mets have any single player outside of Harvey that the Sox take 1-1 for Bogaerts and that includes deGrom and Wheeler.
If he can stay on the field, which is a dicey proposition these days
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That's a ridiculously good deal.
If he can stay on the field, which is a dicey proposition these days
Agreed.. but <20 AAV for a player of his caliber on a deal with a reasonable term is very good. 3.4 WAR player in just 128 games this year
I get he was young, but that's the age where D is supposed to be passable. at SS IMO it's unlikely to get much better if at all, and Bogaerts was a butcher there and will almost certainly need to move off the position.
Bogaerts is a prospect still himself unless you were wowed by his .660 OPS.
That team was the mother of all flukes, getting career years from virtually every journeyman scrub they picked up.
I get he was young, but that's the age where D is supposed to be passable. at SS IMO it's unlikely to get much better if at all, and Bogaerts was a butcher there and will almost certainly need to move off the position.
Bogaerts is a prospect still himself unless you were wowed by his .660 OPS.
II don't think that you can merely look at his OPS and make any great conclusions. Haven't looked it up yet but my recollection that his OPS over the season was pretty U-shaped.
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is probably not a 1 for 1 deal, but I would be so dismissive.
I get he was young, but that's the age where D is supposed to be passable. at SS IMO it's unlikely to get much better if at all, and Bogaerts was a butcher there and will almost certainly need to move off the position.
Bogaerts is a prospect still himself unless you were wowed by his .660 OPS.
II don't think that you can merely look at his OPS and make any great conclusions. Haven't looked it up yet but my recollection that his OPS over the season was pretty U-shaped.
Correct. He was awful June-Aug. Decent to good otherwise.
I think moving (if that's happens) him lessens the projection (and probably the pressure) a little and I don't think his rookie season enforces him as untouchable or even harder to attain.
Most Sox fans I talk to consider his rookie year a mild disappointment. not major and not like he was overwhelmed, but they just had higher expectations due to the hype and the way he handled himself in the post-season.
It's disgusting that baseball doesnt have rules in place disallowing them from re-signing Lester.
Thor for Alexei Ramirez is a more fair deal than Xander (not that I would ever make such a swap). But in terms of realistic deals/asking prices, Ramirez a top 10 player at his position coming off a good year with no health problems for a pitching prospect like Thor is more in line with "fair" and I can't imagine ANY Mets fans would want the Mets to do that.
Donaldson, Rendon, Beltre, Seager, Pablo, Carpenter, Arenado, Frazier, Harrison.
But
Flores compares very favorably with Boegarts. Similar players, similar minor league numbers, similar size, similar age, similar defense. Not clones, but surprisingly similar profiles. One barely gets talked about and is lucky to be named a top 100 prospect. The other is considered top echelon of prospects the past few years.
Yet one player half the fans want to dump, and another the most respected Mets fan on this board feels would be traded for nothing less than Harvey. As a Mets fan, if I was FORCED to stick with Flores at SS and keep DeGrom/Wheeler, or get Boegarts and lose a prized pitcher?? As much as I'd like BoegRts in a Mets uni, we already have a lite version of him.
I just wonder where Betts fits into the picture now though.
.290/.358/.425 8 homers 19 steals in 97 games
Reds are reportedly shopping Latos, buyer beware.
But
Flores compares very favorably with Boegarts. Similar players, similar minor league numbers, similar size, similar age, similar defense. Not clones, but surprisingly similar profiles. One barely gets talked about and is lucky to be named a top 100 prospect. The other is considered top echelon of prospects the past few years.
Yet one player half the fans want to dump, and another the most respected Mets fan on this board feels would be traded for nothing less than Harvey. As a Mets fan, if I was FORCED to stick with Flores at SS and keep DeGrom/Wheeler, or get Boegarts and lose a prized pitcher?? As much as I'd like BoegRts in a Mets uni, we already have a lite version of him.
I just wonder where Betts fits into the picture now though.
This post is very on point. I'm with you preferring Flores at 2B instead of SS and I'm on the front lines of wanting to upgrade the defense up the middle any way possibly. But I can't see the logic in trading Syndergaard for a SS that isn't a big upgrade over Flores defensively, or at least extremely proven offensively. That's why the Seattle guys make sense, they're both good defensively and presumably wouldn't cost Thor, though not sure either will be readily available now that Hanley is off the market. I know it's never going to happen but Tulowitzki is the only player out there I'd give up Syndergaard for.
Sox reportedly loved how he looked with the bat but questioned if CF is his best position due to his instincts. Long term their OF will likely be Hanley with Castillo and Betts. Victorino and Cespedes will be goners soon enough. Craig could be flipped too but at least he can play 1b as well.
Just seems that one of Boegarts and Betts would be moved for a young cost controlled arm. And I would go after Betts over Boegarts ten out of ten times.
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should be the Red Sox opening day starter in CF.
Sox reportedly loved how he looked with the bat but questioned if CF is his best position due to his instincts. Long term their OF will likely be Hanley with Castillo and Betts. Victorino and Cespedes will be goners soon enough. Craig could be flipped too but at least he can play 1b as well.
Victorino isn't going to bring back much. Cespedes is still overvalued by some, but it's not a coincidence that if he is dealt it would be his 3rd team in 6 months. Craig is nothing special but he needs to spell Napoli and his remarkably persevering hip.
And before I cry myself to sleep tonight I'm going to remember the fate of the last Boston shopping spree, and pretty much every other shopping spree of consequence save the 2009 Yankees, which still blew up a couple years later.
DeGroms growth has definitely made Wheeler more expendable than anyone could have previously thought. DeGrom already is what everyone hoped Wheeler would become. Wheeler is still John Maine 2.0, but with trade value. And closer to free agency than DeGrom is.
Mets will likely have trouble moving Colon. Still.
Could definitely see a Victorino for Colon swap if neither has been moved in February.
Fangraphs broke down a return for Hamels. It was nothing special. They basically said Owens, Boegarts, Betts, Holt, both catchers, and another pitcher would be off the table.
If I am the Phillies, I am asking for Betts, Kelly, either Owens/Ranuado, and one lower prospect.
Catch 22 though is, Mets seem hesitant to move Murphy until they have a better grasp on the SS market.
Bob,
Rosenthal believes they will.
Depends on whatthey think of Spangenburg.
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Could Murphy make sense for Toronto, SF, NYY or SD now? Murphy looks like a Padre to me.
Depends on whatthey think of Spangenburg.
I'm talking about for 3b. SD was one of the finalists for Panda.
Wheeler and Leather for Betts
Deal Murphy for a high ceiling A baller and a Lefty reliever.
Colon for Victorino
Offer a few minor league deals to vet loogys stash in Vegas
Betts, Andrus, Wright, Duda, Cuddyer, TDA, Flores, Legares/MdD
Harvey, DeGrom, Niese, Thor/Montero, Gee
Loogy, Edgin, Parnell (personally would non tender him), Black, Familia, Mejia
Excellent pitching, solid deep batting order, very good defensively. And young team. While keeping almost all their prospects!!!
33 year old 1B with bum hips and one year left on a contract tend not to be centerpieces.
I think Murphy goes to one of these teams during the winter meetings. Would love to get that guy Pompey you mentioned from TOR or a good young arm. I could also see Sandy being a little more aggressive than expected for a SS since Hanley went to a team that didn't need a SS and didn't take a team out of the market.
Don't see Wheeler or JdG going anywhere and also don't see the Sox moving Victorino. Very low risk contract, likely very little trade value, and big potential. Cespedes is the obvious guy to trade and I'd imagine someone will give them a solid pitcher for him.
They probably won't deal Napoli, but Victorino, Cespedes and Craig could all be dealt. If Swihart is the catcher of the future Vazquez could be dealt. They have a glut of pitchers with pro potential but who don't project as mid-rotation, much less front of the rotation, and some of those will probably be dealt.
None of this will mean jack shit if they don't get at least one if not two front line starters. They have a glut of middling prospects that will jam the 40 man roster if not moved. Cespedes and (I believe) Napoli offer some immediate value / skillsets that could be packaged with prospects to get a decent return.
Napoli has not fallen apart like I expected two years ago. He could be a short term solution for someone in need of some middle of the lineup pop.
Aren't they always?
But
Flores compares very favorably with Boegarts. Similar players, similar minor league numbers, similar size, similar age, similar defense. Not clones, but surprisingly similar profiles. One barely gets talked about and is lucky to be named a top 100 prospect. The other is considered top echelon of prospects the past few years.
Yet one player half the fans want to dump, and another the most respected Mets fan on this board feels would be traded for nothing less than Harvey. As a Mets fan, if I was FORCED to stick with Flores at SS and keep DeGrom/Wheeler, or get Boegarts and lose a prized pitcher?? As much as I'd like BoegRts in a Mets uni, we already have a lite version of him.
I just wonder where Betts fits into the picture now though.
This is dead on except I think he can handle SS for a few years. He looked good there last year, has a rocket of an arm, and with another offseason working with Barwis and a full offseason actually training for the position, he shows up even better. He's projected as a 2.5 WAR SS next year which is better than just about every other SS out there and we give up nothing and I think he actually exceeds that greatly if his defense holds up.
So Steamer is either predicting an injury or a lack of playing time? It seems like it expects him to produce at a 2.5/3 WAR "rate" per season if he stays in the lineup.
I'd like a Phil Coke as a lefty specialist but there's some interesting Rule V guys available too. The bullpen looks damn near finished.
Id see if we can get Miller for a Neise/Gee and a second tier prospects and have him compete with Flores in spring training. Maybe they can even share time as a lefty/righty mix for a bit.
That's it. The Mets are slated to have an above average offensive player at every single player int heir lineup right now which is rare for todays MLB. You aren't going to have gold glovers at every position. That's the tradeoff. Personally offense is much more important to this team and this teams pitching staff then upgrading the average defense in the middle infield.
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
Something went horribly wrong? What are you basing this off of? He's slated as your 8th hitter right now. The team is doomed if he doesn't live up to his offensive attributes? The defense again??
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doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
Yeah I feel the same way. They are likely willing to keep him as depth. We've all gone over Colon a million times so I won't rehash it but I think the Sox likely wouldn't see Colon as a reason to deal Victorino.
Replacing a negative WAR player in Gee with one of the best pitchers in baseball in Harvey is likely worth 4 more wins. Replacing the absolute worst LF production in the majors with the batting champ from last offseason is worth at least 2-3 more wins. Replacing Flores with Tejada is likely worth another win or two at least as well. And that's if everything else is a disaster and we get no improvement from anywhere.
If Flores is still the starting SS in September 2015 - it means either nothing went according to plan, or somehow Flores has shocked the world and is average+ at SS and a top 3 offensive SS in the entire game. Not saying it can't happen, but no one is planning on it.
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In comment 11997891 DanMetroMan said:
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doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
Yeah I feel the same way. They are likely willing to keep him as depth. We've all gone over Colon a million times so I won't rehash it but I think the Sox likely wouldn't see Colon as a reason to deal Victorino.
Victorino's upside is just too high to deal. I've seen a lot of comments from Sox writers about how much they value his defense in RF and what their record was when he was healthy out there. The guy has been a pretty big part of 2 championship teams and he's got a reasonable 1 year deal. Just no reason to dump that.
The most pivotal part of this offseason for the Mets is what they can get for Murphy. If they can't get something good for him I fear the rest of the offseason will basically play out exactly as ZG predicted, which IMO will make them at best 50-50 for a playoff spot.
How do you figure that? Id agree with this to an extent and we were above .500 but you still have nobody in an outfield spot, Gee sucking opposed to Harvey, and Tejada still playing the majority of the games until September.
Keep in mind the Sox CURRENT OFF. Castillo, Cespedes, Craig, Betts, Bradley JR, Holt, Nava and Victorino. Saying it's crowded is an understatement. It's STILL crowded even if they trade Cespededes AND Craig.
I have to assume even the Sox look at Victorino at $13mm as a major luxury. The same way Mets fans undervalue Colon as a starting pitcher at $11mm.
If Flores is still the starting SS in September 2015 - it means either nothing went according to plan, or somehow Flores has shocked the world and is average+ at SS and a top 3 offensive SS in the entire game. Not saying it can't happen, but no one is planning on it.
Well that's true if you are going off what the plan was Pre-2014. Flores changed his perception based upon his production in my eyes and the organizations eyes. I think if there is a true upgrade out there, Sandy will go after him if we aren't giving up the moon but I also think he's pretty content going with him if we aren't brining a true upgrade. That's the boat Im in.
I agree with what you are saying but MDD and Flores weren't anointed their positions until the last week of August. Think you are overstating how much they've contributed. harvey doesn't have to be Clayton kershaw good like he was in 2013 to still be an absolutely monumental upgrade from Gee's production.
You are also taking nothing else into account which is fine. But if Wright is healthy he adds nothing?? How about Granderson and the new short porch? How about Duda getting helped even further from said porch. How about Montero/Maszzoni/ Herrera/Syndergaard/Matz forcing their way into roles before the year is out? I think everyone is underselling this team a ton.
WOW!! And that's to play LF, not SS??
Link - ( New Window )
I hate to argue with you, so I won't continue to. Especially since it's about Flores. But I will give you a little statistical hint. How many balls out of the zone did Flores get to? And how did that compare around the league? They don't WANT Flores playing SS.
IMO this offseason they needed to add 1 solid, 3 WAR+, every day player that was still in his prime. I like Cuddyer's bat, but he's not that, he's a nice role player. Going into last year, off an injured 2013 Chris Young was similarly 1 year removed from posting a solid season in 2012. Cuddyer is a much better fit for what this team needs right now, but at this point his addition is a lot closer to the Chris Young signing than the Beltran acquisition in 05. And again, I'm not criticizing the Cuddyer signing, I liked the Young signing last year and I like Cuddyer signing even more. As Boras says, we're still shopping in the same aisles.
The team was a work in progress last year for sure. We completely rolled the dice at 1B, went into a season with a complete hole in the outfield, Tejada at SS and a rotation and bullpen in shambles.
That's not the case anymore. I don't see any holes on this team at all if Flores is the SS.
I think it's more people wanting to guard their expectations which is fine. We are going to have a fantastic rotation, a fantastic bullpen, and a very good NL lineup. The rebuild isn't complete. It won't be for a couple more years in my mind when everyone's reaching their primes but we should be in the mix for a wild card this year and that's all I want.
IMO this offseason they needed to add 1 solid, 3 WAR+, every day player that was still in his prime. I like Cuddyer's bat, but he's not that, he's a nice role player. Going into last year, off an injured 2013 Chris Young was similarly 1 year removed from posting a solid season in 2012. Cuddyer is a much better fit for what this team needs right now, but at this point his addition is a lot closer to the Chris Young signing than the Beltran acquisition in 05. And again, I'm not criticizing the Cuddyer signing, I liked the Young signing last year and I like Cuddyer signing even more. As Boras says, we're still shopping in the same aisles.
Agree 100%. I mean I think the Mets would sign tomorrow for Cuddyer to be as good as Marlon Byrd has been the last 2 seasons but would anyone say the 2014 Mets were a Marlon Byrd away from a good offensive squad?
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
Wrong. The Mets were 9th in the NL in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA so your league claims just aren't true. They were below average offensively and Cuddyer at his very best is a league average LF.
And people just want to gloss over the pitching like it doesn't exist.
Braves, Phillies, Reds and Padres were the only teams worse than the Mets in terms of wOBA. This idea the Mets offense was average because hitting is down is flat false
And that's with no Cuddyer, no Wright, no SS, and a half season of TDA.
Sure I can because Flores is really the only complete unknown heading into 2015 so its fun using a mathematical engine to see where he might go.
Steamer is always extremely conservative and of course isn't going to like Wright, Cuddyer, Granderson, ect with their injury histories. Im cool with that.
Catchers main defensive responsibilities do not revolve around those two factors.
Neither was this thread until it got hijacked!
You are the one who cited the "system" as to why he rated so poorly. As if he was actually good back there but the system is flawed. He was awful back there. There are no 2 ways around it. Remember when people used to laugh at Piazza's throwing? 23% caught stealing career, superior to TDA in 2014. Can't sugarcoat everything I'm sorry.
Lagares is easily the best bet on the team to be a 3+ WAR player. But if he regresses slightly, you could make a good argument that the overall output from the OF could decrease since MDD and Kirk were worth about 2.5 WAR combined as well. Granderson's last 2+ WAR season was 2011 and Cuddyer has had 500 AB's in just 1 of the last 3 seasons.
The Infield
Duda and Murphy should match last year. TdA is a safe bet to improve overall. Last year the SS position generated almost 2 WAR between a good year for Tejada and Flores. Right now I'd say best case scenario is matching that.
David Wright?
If he bounces back he will bring a huge upgrade to the overall roster. But is he enough?
The Defense
Worse than last year in the OF with Cuddyer and as presently configured worse than last year on the IF as well with Tejada out.
So again, where is the upgrade? This team needs their Heyward/Upton/Ramirez type acquisition.
I said half a season offensively because he was basically a pitcher in the lineup for 2 months before he was sent down to Vegas. lol
Lagares is easily the best bet on the team to be a 3+ WAR player. But if he regresses slightly, you could make a good argument that the overall output from the OF could decrease since MDD and Kirk were worth about 2.5 WAR combined as well. Granderson's last 2+ WAR season was 2011 and Cuddyer has had 500 AB's in just 1 of the last 3 seasons.
The Infield
Duda and Murphy should match last year. TdA is a safe bet to improve overall. Last year the SS position generated almost 2 WAR between a good year for Tejada and Flores. Right now I'd say best case scenario is matching that.
David Wright?
If he bounces back he will bring a huge upgrade to the overall roster. But is he enough?
The Defense
Worse than last year in the OF with Cuddyer and as presently configured worse than last year on the IF as well with Tejada out.
So again, where is the upgrade? This team needs their Heyward/Upton/Ramirez type acquisition.
I think Wright ends up being somewhere in between his 2013 beast year and 2014 terrible year. I think he played through injury, though I do think he's in decline mode.
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nobody's arguing that lol. Easily correctable however. If he cuts his passed balls from 12 to 6 he suddenly shoots up. Did any of those passed balls hurt us even in a single game btw?? He also hurt his arm and I think it effected his throwing 2nd half a bit. He's at least been average throughout his minor league career at throwing guys out. He's also excellent in just about every other area. Pitchers love throwing to him. He frames pitches well. And he handles himself excellent on popups, ect. Most catchers improve significantly going into their second year defensively as well.
You are the one who cited the "system" as to why he rated so poorly. As if he was actually good back there but the system is flawed. He was awful back there. There are no 2 ways around it. Remember when people used to laugh at Piazza's throwing? 23% caught stealing career, superior to TDA in 2014. Can't sugarcoat everything I'm sorry.
Sugarcoating everything? I just said he sucked last year defensively. And I just explained why I do hate the "system". So are you saying you don't expect him to improve going into 2015?? Because just about everyone else does.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports that the Phillies "have had the most serious talks" with the Phillies regarding a trade for ace Cole Hamels.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported a few weeks ago that the Red Sox had already rejected a couple of trade proposals from the Phillies, but the dynamic has changed now that the Sox have signed both Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. It's easy to make matches between Boston's surpluses and Philly's needs. Hamels, 30, is owed $96 million over the next four seasons with a $24 million option for 2019, but that's not terrible money in this market.
Source: Bob Nightengale on Twitter
Nov 24 - 1:20 P
Of all signings today, that is by far the best one. Nice.
Because myself and a whole lot of smart people believe how we rate catchers defensively needs a whole lot of work. I love using metrics for a lot of things, but catching isn't one of them. I guess my eye test told me he doesn't really suck. One meaningless passed ball less a month and suddenly he's good? Im far more interested in how he handled the pitching staff and how he looked back their as a whole. Im also looking at his minor league stats where he always seemed at least average. I don't have any proof but its far too early to throw in the towel on TDA's defense. I'd actually expect significant improvement heading into year two.
I could be wrong, but I believe he was top 20 WAR positional player in all of baseball last year.
One of the most underrated/undervalued players in the entire game. Whatever the reason Mariners players tend to be underrated (Iwakuma is fantastic as well).
Seager last 3 seasons 12.8 WAR. Will play 2015 as a 27 year old. 4 3b in baseball have been more valuable than Seager the past 3 seasons and odds are 3 of the other 4 are in decline mode while he's in his prime.
On the plus side he's got a good arm, frames pitches well, and he's been graded average in the past, but especially at that position it can take time to put it all together.
I predict barring injury Seager retires with at least 3-4 all-star games under his belt. Not that all-star game is the end all be all but here is Dave Cameron-
"Seagers been underrated for essentially his entire career. He was underestimated as a draft prospect, and as a minor leaguer, and now as a very productive big leaguer. Hes headed into the prime of his career as a guy who has already averaged +3.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances. He might not look like a top tier player, but Kyle Seager has developed into an excellent baseball player. "
WAR overrates the shit out of defense, which is how you end up with Fangraphs listing Alex Gordon as the #5 player in all of baseball, with Josh Donaldson right behind him. They're both listed ahead of Bautista, Stanton, Cabrera, etc. That, in a word, is asinine.
7.7 WAR in 77 career starts 7.2 WAR last 2 seasons
Iwakuma and Quintana, the rare ex-Met and ex-Yankee 2 of the most underrated pitchers in baseball.
On the plus side he's got a good arm, frames pitches well, and he's been graded average in the past, but especially at that position it can take time to put it all together.
Where did I say that? I said if he shaved off one passed ball a month which likely cost us nothing in the first place suddenly his defensive miscues don't look all that bad. I think that's doable as most catchers improve significantly headed into their second year. I also don't like the way catchers are evaluated defensively as do many others. I am saying I expect improvement next year and based on his history I am not concerned that his defense will be horrid going forward.
"Your hate has made you powerful. Now, fulfill your destiny and take the Yankees place at my side!"
"Your hate has made you powerful. Now, fulfill your destiny and take the Yankees place at my side!"