seems like Hamels to the Sox makes sense on paper for various reasons. Cueto is reportedly available as well but hard to see him moved considering his value is hard to decipher given his pending FA status.
seems like Hamels to the Sox makes sense on paper for various reasons. Cueto is reportedly available as well but hard to see him moved considering his value is hard to decipher given his pending FA status.
Fangraphs broke down a return for Hamels. It was nothing special. They basically said Owens, Boegarts, Betts, Holt, both catchers, and another pitcher would be off the table.
If I am the Phillies, I am asking for Betts, Kelly, either Owens/Ranuado, and one lower prospect.
I would love to have had him on the Mets staff. Hard to determine who is the bigger competitor, him or Harvey. But, Hamels has pitched through some aches and pains over the years that a lot of other pitchers wouldn't have pitched through. And as good as Hamels has been through his career - not quite sure he was ever a 4/$100mm type of player. So huge financial risk and injury risk, with limited upside value with that contract. Throw in the assets you have to move to get him...
Was hoping Panda would sign early enough, and thankfully it appears he will. Next few weeks make or break Murphys trade prospects. I like him as a player, love him as a person - but his greatest value to the Mets is in a trade at this point.
Catch 22 though is, Mets seem hesitant to move Murphy until they have a better grasp on the SS market.
Buy Buster an infielder's glove and let Susac and Hector Sanchez play C. Or, see if they can get anything for Belt and move Buster to 1B though Sabean seems to love Belt. Both ideas are dreams as I believe the plan is to keep Posey at C for at least 2 more years.
Grandy for Andrus
Wheeler and Leather for Betts
Deal Murphy for a high ceiling A baller and a Lefty reliever.
Colon for Victorino
Offer a few minor league deals to vet loogys stash in Vegas
Cespedes and Napoli expendable. Sox have a lot of fungible arms to throw in also. I expect they will acquire at least one good arm and I'm not so sure it will be Hamels. Philly gm is not an overly reasonable individual.
RE: Napoli could be the centerpiece of a deal for a front line Â
Could Murphy make sense for Toronto, SF, NYY or SD now? Murphy looks like a Padre to me.
I think Murphy goes to one of these teams during the winter meetings. Would love to get that guy Pompey you mentioned from TOR or a good young arm. I could also see Sandy being a little more aggressive than expected for a SS since Hanley went to a team that didn't need a SS and didn't take a team out of the market.
Don't see Wheeler or JdG going anywhere and also don't see the Sox moving Victorino. Very low risk contract, likely very little trade value, and big potential. Cespedes is the obvious guy to trade and I'd imagine someone will give them a solid pitcher for him.
Napoli has significant power from the right side. There is not a lot of that available. I think he could be a piece with arms or near MLB ready prospects for a significant arm coming back. Betts, Bogy, Swihart and Vasquez aren't going anywhere unless there is a major haul coming back.
Napoli has significant power from the right side. There is not a lot of that available. I think he could be a piece with arms or near MLB ready prospects for a significant arm coming back. Betts, Bogy, Swihart and Vasquez aren't going anywhere unless there is a major haul coming back.
They probably won't deal Napoli, but Victorino, Cespedes and Craig could all be dealt. If Swihart is the catcher of the future Vazquez could be dealt. They have a glut of pitchers with pro potential but who don't project as mid-rotation, much less front of the rotation, and some of those will probably be dealt.
I don't think Victorino or Craig have much value at this point. Â
That could change by the trading deadline. Cespedes is all but gone it would seem. Marrero and Ceccini could both be in a deal.
None of this will mean jack shit if they don't get at least one if not two front line starters. They have a glut of middling prospects that will jam the 40 man roster if not moved. Cespedes and (I believe) Napoli offer some immediate value / skillsets that could be packaged with prospects to get a decent return.
Napoli has not fallen apart like I expected two years ago. He could be a short term solution for someone in need of some middle of the lineup pop.
RE: man is this thread suffused with wishful thinking Â
doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
with Bogaerts? I know people like his tools a lot but in my eyes he's a prospect because at this point he's had next to no success as a hitter in the major leagues. I still like him quite a bit but he has not hit well at all
Let me preface that I want to see Foores starting at 2B and not at SS.
But
Flores compares very favorably with Boegarts. Similar players, similar minor league numbers, similar size, similar age, similar defense. Not clones, but surprisingly similar profiles. One barely gets talked about and is lucky to be named a top 100 prospect. The other is considered top echelon of prospects the past few years.
Yet one player half the fans want to dump, and another the most respected Mets fan on this board feels would be traded for nothing less than Harvey. As a Mets fan, if I was FORCED to stick with Flores at SS and keep DeGrom/Wheeler, or get Boegarts and lose a prized pitcher?? As much as I'd like BoegRts in a Mets uni, we already have a lite version of him.
I just wonder where Betts fits into the picture now though.
This is dead on except I think he can handle SS for a few years. He looked good there last year, has a rocket of an arm, and with another offseason working with Barwis and a full offseason actually training for the position, he shows up even better. He's projected as a 2.5 WAR SS next year which is better than just about every other SS out there and we give up nothing and I think he actually exceeds that greatly if his defense holds up.
But if he starts 125 games at SS for the Mets, something went horribly wrong. Or we are playing for 2016. Even if he becomes a 2 WAR SS, that's not the plan.
projects Flores to be worth 1.9 WAR in 125 games. Steamer is fun and all but the projections systems are just that.
So Steamer is either predicting an injury or a lack of playing time? It seems like it expects him to produce at a 2.5/3 WAR "rate" per season if he stays in the lineup.
I'd like a Ryan Ludwick as a power righty off the bench who can also play a little RF when Cuddyer shifts to 1st. There's plenty other options for this role but he's my favorite.
I'd like a Phil Coke as a lefty specialist but there's some interesting Rule V guys available too. The bullpen looks damn near finished.
Id see if we can get Miller for a Neise/Gee and a second tier prospects and have him compete with Flores in spring training. Maybe they can even share time as a lefty/righty mix for a bit.
That's it. The Mets are slated to have an above average offensive player at every single player int heir lineup right now which is rare for todays MLB. You aren't going to have gold glovers at every position. That's the tradeoff. Personally offense is much more important to this team and this teams pitching staff then upgrading the average defense in the middle infield.
doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
But if he starts 125 games at SS for the Mets, something went horribly wrong. Or we are playing for 2016. Even if he becomes a 2 WAR SS, that's not the plan.
Something went horribly wrong? What are you basing this off of? He's slated as your 8th hitter right now. The team is doomed if he doesn't live up to his offensive attributes? The defense again??
doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
Yeah I feel the same way. They are likely willing to keep him as depth. We've all gone over Colon a million times so I won't rehash it but I think the Sox likely wouldn't see Colon as a reason to deal Victorino.
But if everything stayed exactly the same and TDA only played half a season, Degrom only played half a season, the bullpen was in flux for 2 months, Duda only played 4 moths, Granderson took 2.5 months off, and Wright doesn't play at all, we are basically 8 wins better.
Replacing a negative WAR player in Gee with one of the best pitchers in baseball in Harvey is likely worth 4 more wins. Replacing the absolute worst LF production in the majors with the batting champ from last offseason is worth at least 2-3 more wins. Replacing Flores with Tejada is likely worth another win or two at least as well. And that's if everything else is a disaster and we get no improvement from anywhere.
I'm not even sure if he is Plan F at short, yet alone plan B or A. Keep in mind, a lot of the higher ups aren't even sure Flores can handle 2B still. You think they want him at SS?
If Flores is still the starting SS in September 2015 - it means either nothing went according to plan, or somehow Flores has shocked the world and is average+ at SS and a top 3 offensive SS in the entire game. Not saying it can't happen, but no one is planning on it.
doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
Yeah I feel the same way. They are likely willing to keep him as depth. We've all gone over Colon a million times so I won't rehash it but I think the Sox likely wouldn't see Colon as a reason to deal Victorino.
Victorino's upside is just too high to deal. I've seen a lot of comments from Sox writers about how much they value his defense in RF and what their record was when he was healthy out there. The guy has been a pretty big part of 2 championship teams and he's got a reasonable 1 year deal. Just no reason to dump that.
The most pivotal part of this offseason for the Mets is what they can get for Murphy. If they can't get something good for him I fear the rest of the offseason will basically play out exactly as ZG predicted, which IMO will make them at best 50-50 for a playoff spot.
Basically all you have to do is look at the 2014 Mets second half vs 1st half - and that's our 2015 team. Some guys will progress further, some will get injured/regress.
Basically all you have to do is look at the 2014 Mets second half vs 1st half - and that's our 2015 team. Some guys will progress further, some will get injured/regress.
How do you figure that? Id agree with this to an extent and we were above .500 but you still have nobody in an outfield spot, Gee sucking opposed to Harvey, and Tejada still playing the majority of the games until September.
No clue what his value is, but I assume everyone is blinded by his 2013 WAR when valuing him. He's older, coming off injuries and a sub par season. Not saying he is worthless, but he is worth more to another team than the Sox. How many teams in all of MLB have a 4th or 5th OF making $13mm?
Keep in mind the Sox CURRENT OFF. Castillo, Cespedes, Craig, Betts, Bradley JR, Holt, Nava and Victorino. Saying it's crowded is an understatement. It's STILL crowded even if they trade Cespededes AND Craig.
I have to assume even the Sox look at Victorino at $13mm as a major luxury. The same way Mets fans undervalue Colon as a starting pitcher at $11mm.
I'm not even sure if he is Plan F at short, yet alone plan B or A. Keep in mind, a lot of the higher ups aren't even sure Flores can handle 2B still. You think they want him at SS?
If Flores is still the starting SS in September 2015 - it means either nothing went according to plan, or somehow Flores has shocked the world and is average+ at SS and a top 3 offensive SS in the entire game. Not saying it can't happen, but no one is planning on it.
Well that's true if you are going off what the plan was Pre-2014. Flores changed his perception based upon his production in my eyes and the organizations eyes. I think if there is a true upgrade out there, Sandy will go after him if we aren't giving up the moon but I also think he's pretty content going with him if we aren't brining a true upgrade. That's the boat Im in.
Because MdD played pretty well down the stretch in LF. And Flores played well at SS. Not sure I would guarantee a full 2015 season will be major upgrades vs 2nd half last year. Call it a win or two tops. And sure gee to Harvey is an expected bump, but odds are Harvey isn't 2013 Harvey in 2015. And if he is, can Wheeler and DeGrom not regress any? Who knows. But I think if the season starts today and all we did was add Cuddyer and Harvey, I wouldn't count on a major improvement in 2015 over the second half of 2014. And that's not a negative comment, I just think most Mets fans don't realize the team wasn't horrendous in the second half.
Again, I'm one of Flores's biggest fans here. And I wish I could agree with you. But I can assure you Flores starting at SS would be considered a disappointing offseason. The opinion of him in many eyes has improved, but hard not to improve from an afterthought. 12 months ago, many viewed Flores the way Puello is viewed now - scary thought.
Hanley deal 4 years / 88M - with 22M vesting option on a 5th year Â
Because MdD played pretty well down the stretch in LF. And Flores played well at SS. Not sure I would guarantee a full 2015 season will be major upgrades vs 2nd half last year. Call it a win or two tops. And sure gee to Harvey is an expected bump, but odds are Harvey isn't 2013 Harvey in 2015. And if he is, can Wheeler and DeGrom not regress any? Who knows. But I think if the season starts today and all we did was add Cuddyer and Harvey, I wouldn't count on a major improvement in 2015 over the second half of 2014. And that's not a negative comment, I just think most Mets fans don't realize the team wasn't horrendous in the second half.
I agree with what you are saying but MDD and Flores weren't anointed their positions until the last week of August. Think you are overstating how much they've contributed. harvey doesn't have to be Clayton kershaw good like he was in 2013 to still be an absolutely monumental upgrade from Gee's production.
You are also taking nothing else into account which is fine. But if Wright is healthy he adds nothing?? How about Granderson and the new short porch? How about Duda getting helped even further from said porch. How about Montero/Maszzoni/ Herrera/Syndergaard/Matz forcing their way into roles before the year is out? I think everyone is underselling this team a ton.
RE: Hanley deal 4 years / 88M - with 22M vesting option on a 5th year Â
I hate to argue with you, so I won't continue to. Especially since it's about Flores. But I will give you a little statistical hint. How many balls out of the zone did Flores get to? And how did that compare around the league? They don't WANT Flores playing SS.
of the best in baseball at handling balls in the zone which is far more important. Outside of the zone he didn't handle as well but again thats true for most SS(i.e. the zone is outside a normal SS range) and he didn't really get many chances anyway. There's a much larger sample of him handling balls with moderate difficulty.
Don't we want him to be good at the plays he should be good at?? Aren't we all drooling at what Flores could do with the bat at that position?? Do we need him to be "Simmons good" too?
Fangraphs broke down a return for Hamels. It was nothing special. They basically said Owens, Boegarts, Betts, Holt, both catchers, and another pitcher would be off the table.
If I am the Phillies, I am asking for Betts, Kelly, either Owens/Ranuado, and one lower prospect.
Catch 22 though is, Mets seem hesitant to move Murphy until they have a better grasp on the SS market.
Bob,
Rosenthal believes they will.
Depends on whatthey think of Spangenburg.
Quote:
Could Murphy make sense for Toronto, SF, NYY or SD now? Murphy looks like a Padre to me.
Depends on whatthey think of Spangenburg.
I'm talking about for 3b. SD was one of the finalists for Panda.
Wheeler and Leather for Betts
Deal Murphy for a high ceiling A baller and a Lefty reliever.
Colon for Victorino
Offer a few minor league deals to vet loogys stash in Vegas
Betts, Andrus, Wright, Duda, Cuddyer, TDA, Flores, Legares/MdD
Harvey, DeGrom, Niese, Thor/Montero, Gee
Loogy, Edgin, Parnell (personally would non tender him), Black, Familia, Mejia
Excellent pitching, solid deep batting order, very good defensively. And young team. While keeping almost all their prospects!!!
33 year old 1B with bum hips and one year left on a contract tend not to be centerpieces.
I think Murphy goes to one of these teams during the winter meetings. Would love to get that guy Pompey you mentioned from TOR or a good young arm. I could also see Sandy being a little more aggressive than expected for a SS since Hanley went to a team that didn't need a SS and didn't take a team out of the market.
Don't see Wheeler or JdG going anywhere and also don't see the Sox moving Victorino. Very low risk contract, likely very little trade value, and big potential. Cespedes is the obvious guy to trade and I'd imagine someone will give them a solid pitcher for him.
They probably won't deal Napoli, but Victorino, Cespedes and Craig could all be dealt. If Swihart is the catcher of the future Vazquez could be dealt. They have a glut of pitchers with pro potential but who don't project as mid-rotation, much less front of the rotation, and some of those will probably be dealt.
None of this will mean jack shit if they don't get at least one if not two front line starters. They have a glut of middling prospects that will jam the 40 man roster if not moved. Cespedes and (I believe) Napoli offer some immediate value / skillsets that could be packaged with prospects to get a decent return.
Napoli has not fallen apart like I expected two years ago. He could be a short term solution for someone in need of some middle of the lineup pop.
Aren't they always?
But
Flores compares very favorably with Boegarts. Similar players, similar minor league numbers, similar size, similar age, similar defense. Not clones, but surprisingly similar profiles. One barely gets talked about and is lucky to be named a top 100 prospect. The other is considered top echelon of prospects the past few years.
Yet one player half the fans want to dump, and another the most respected Mets fan on this board feels would be traded for nothing less than Harvey. As a Mets fan, if I was FORCED to stick with Flores at SS and keep DeGrom/Wheeler, or get Boegarts and lose a prized pitcher?? As much as I'd like BoegRts in a Mets uni, we already have a lite version of him.
I just wonder where Betts fits into the picture now though.
This is dead on except I think he can handle SS for a few years. He looked good there last year, has a rocket of an arm, and with another offseason working with Barwis and a full offseason actually training for the position, he shows up even better. He's projected as a 2.5 WAR SS next year which is better than just about every other SS out there and we give up nothing and I think he actually exceeds that greatly if his defense holds up.
So Steamer is either predicting an injury or a lack of playing time? It seems like it expects him to produce at a 2.5/3 WAR "rate" per season if he stays in the lineup.
I'd like a Phil Coke as a lefty specialist but there's some interesting Rule V guys available too. The bullpen looks damn near finished.
Id see if we can get Miller for a Neise/Gee and a second tier prospects and have him compete with Flores in spring training. Maybe they can even share time as a lefty/righty mix for a bit.
That's it. The Mets are slated to have an above average offensive player at every single player int heir lineup right now which is rare for todays MLB. You aren't going to have gold glovers at every position. That's the tradeoff. Personally offense is much more important to this team and this teams pitching staff then upgrading the average defense in the middle infield.
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
Something went horribly wrong? What are you basing this off of? He's slated as your 8th hitter right now. The team is doomed if he doesn't live up to his offensive attributes? The defense again??
Quote:
doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
Yeah I feel the same way. They are likely willing to keep him as depth. We've all gone over Colon a million times so I won't rehash it but I think the Sox likely wouldn't see Colon as a reason to deal Victorino.
Replacing a negative WAR player in Gee with one of the best pitchers in baseball in Harvey is likely worth 4 more wins. Replacing the absolute worst LF production in the majors with the batting champ from last offseason is worth at least 2-3 more wins. Replacing Flores with Tejada is likely worth another win or two at least as well. And that's if everything else is a disaster and we get no improvement from anywhere.
If Flores is still the starting SS in September 2015 - it means either nothing went according to plan, or somehow Flores has shocked the world and is average+ at SS and a top 3 offensive SS in the entire game. Not saying it can't happen, but no one is planning on it.
Quote:
In comment 11997891 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
doubt Colon would bring back Victorino on his own. Fully realize Victorino is coming off a terrible season but I suspect there is more of a market given the dearth of bats available plus unlike the Mets I suspect 1. The Sox would be more willing to eat significant money for a better return 2. Hold onto more depth even if it costs more $$
I don't know how much of a market there is for Victorino but whatever it is I think the Red Sox will value him more. It's still somewhat unknown if he'll even be ready by ST, which should not only hold back his trade value but also seem to make perfect sense as an insurance policy 4th OFer who can rotate in when healthy and get regular rest. I'd be really surprised if they trade him at all.
Yeah I feel the same way. They are likely willing to keep him as depth. We've all gone over Colon a million times so I won't rehash it but I think the Sox likely wouldn't see Colon as a reason to deal Victorino.
Victorino's upside is just too high to deal. I've seen a lot of comments from Sox writers about how much they value his defense in RF and what their record was when he was healthy out there. The guy has been a pretty big part of 2 championship teams and he's got a reasonable 1 year deal. Just no reason to dump that.
The most pivotal part of this offseason for the Mets is what they can get for Murphy. If they can't get something good for him I fear the rest of the offseason will basically play out exactly as ZG predicted, which IMO will make them at best 50-50 for a playoff spot.
How do you figure that? Id agree with this to an extent and we were above .500 but you still have nobody in an outfield spot, Gee sucking opposed to Harvey, and Tejada still playing the majority of the games until September.
Keep in mind the Sox CURRENT OFF. Castillo, Cespedes, Craig, Betts, Bradley JR, Holt, Nava and Victorino. Saying it's crowded is an understatement. It's STILL crowded even if they trade Cespededes AND Craig.
I have to assume even the Sox look at Victorino at $13mm as a major luxury. The same way Mets fans undervalue Colon as a starting pitcher at $11mm.
If Flores is still the starting SS in September 2015 - it means either nothing went according to plan, or somehow Flores has shocked the world and is average+ at SS and a top 3 offensive SS in the entire game. Not saying it can't happen, but no one is planning on it.
Well that's true if you are going off what the plan was Pre-2014. Flores changed his perception based upon his production in my eyes and the organizations eyes. I think if there is a true upgrade out there, Sandy will go after him if we aren't giving up the moon but I also think he's pretty content going with him if we aren't brining a true upgrade. That's the boat Im in.
I agree with what you are saying but MDD and Flores weren't anointed their positions until the last week of August. Think you are overstating how much they've contributed. harvey doesn't have to be Clayton kershaw good like he was in 2013 to still be an absolutely monumental upgrade from Gee's production.
You are also taking nothing else into account which is fine. But if Wright is healthy he adds nothing?? How about Granderson and the new short porch? How about Duda getting helped even further from said porch. How about Montero/Maszzoni/ Herrera/Syndergaard/Matz forcing their way into roles before the year is out? I think everyone is underselling this team a ton.
WOW!! And that's to play LF, not SS??
Link - ( New Window )
I hate to argue with you, so I won't continue to. Especially since it's about Flores. But I will give you a little statistical hint. How many balls out of the zone did Flores get to? And how did that compare around the league? They don't WANT Flores playing SS.