based on what? You know something we don't? I get you think the team stinks and the future is bleak, but as someone in your position here to throw that out without basing it on anything is stupid
to not count on Cruz to be our number 2. First, thats a major injury and players tend never to be the same. Next, he wasnt as productive as most think over the last 20 games or so.
He can still have a pretty important role, a poor man's Welker or prime Steve Smith (NYG) where he can be a move the chains kind of WR.
to not count on Cruz to be our number 2. First, thats a major injury and players tend never to be the same. Next, he wasnt as productive as most think over the last 20 games or so.
He can still have a pretty important role, a poor man's Welker or prime Steve Smith (NYG) where he can be a move the chains kind of WR.
Based on what Eric posted there is cause to expect Cruz not to be able to play effectively. If he is a no. 2 next year I'll be grateful for the good news. At this point, like David Wilson, prepare for the worst.
are others...just use google...but this isn't something I'm pulling out of my ass.
I heard the same naive optimism on this site after the injuries to Steve Smith and David Wilson.
Cruz's injury is potentially career-ending and certainly career-affecting.
Agree. It sounds like he probably won't ever be 100 percent, especially if it's harder to recover from than an ACL. Remember that at the highest level of sports, success or failure is decided by the smallest of margins. The tiniest diminution in ability can mean the difference between playing well and not even being on the team.
isn't fair at all. Nothing Wilson could have done could have changed the outcome. I firmly believe someone of Cruz's character and work ethic will do everything and anything necessary to get back to where he needs to be.
Instead of referencing cherry-picked, cautionary comments from individual doctors, why not reference the studies I've linked that actually have statistics on players who have dealt with this?
He is very likely going to come back. He is also more likely than not going to be the same player, though yes, the odds of him not recovering fully are worse for this injury than most other injuries.
But more difficult odds does not equal less than 50% chance or whatever your exact thought is.
If you want to buy into it too by all means, but a suggestion would be to at least wait until he starts his rehab before we start assuming he'll never be dancing in the end zone again.
I partially tore my Patella Tendon and based on my own experience the day Cruz got hurt I said I couldn't imagine him ever being the same player. Of course I don't have the medical care he has access to or rehabbed like he will so obviously I could be entirely wrong about that. It was just my initial reaction having dealt to a lessor degree with a similar injury.
I'm not cherry picking anything. He could come back from this, but there is also a very good chance he doesn't.
If you want to ignore that reality, that's up to you.
Again, I'm not ignoring anything. I'm taking issue with you saying there is a "very good chance he doesn't come back."
What are you basing this on? I feel like you're unfairly presenting what is perhaps "the hardest injury to come back from" with "Not likely to come back from."
Quote:
RESULTS: Eleven of the 24 injuries had antecedent symptoms. The most common mechanism of injury was an eccentric overload to a contracting extensor mechanism. Physical examination demonstrated a palpable defect in all players. Twenty-two were complete ruptures, and 2 were partial injuries. Three of the 24 cases had a concomitant anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. In 19 of the 24 injuries, the player returned to participate in at least 1 game in the NFL. Players who returned were drafted, on average, in the fourth round, while those who failed to return to play were drafted, on average, in the sixth round. Of those players who returned to play, the average number of games played was 45.4, with a range of 1 to 142 games.
CONCLUSION: Patellar tendon ruptures can occur in otherwise healthy professional football players without antecedent symptoms or predisposing factors. The most common mechanism of injury is eccentric overload. Close attention should be paid to stability examination of the knee given the not uncommon occurrence of concomitant ACL injury. Although this is usually a season-ending injury when it occurs in isolation, acute surgical repair generally produces good functional results and allows for return to play the following season. Players chosen earlier in the draft are more likely to return to play.
To summarize, 19 of the 24 players returned to play football again, with an average of 45 games per player.
Additionally, the average round drafted for the players who didn't return was 6th round. Translation: These guys not returning likely had more to do with their talent than their injury.
Cruz, while undrafted, obviously has the talent of a 1st round draft pick. So really, virtually all good football players returned!
So c'mon, man. You are not representing his chances accurately at all.
so using your numbers, that's a 21 percent chance. And we're talking WR here. And those 1-out-of-5 odds mean just him coming back, not how he will be as a player.
so using your numbers, that's a 21 percent chance. And we're talking WR here. And those 1-out-of-5 odds mean just him coming back, not how he will be as a player.
Steve Smith came back too.
Huh? How on Earth are you drawing a 1-out-of-5 conclusion from that?
It's a 79% chance he returns to play for 3 seasons. But that alone is totally ignoring that the average draft position of the 21% who didn't return was the 6th round. Virtually all of the good football players returned.
It's a 79% chance he returns to play for 3 seasons. But that alone is totally ignoring that the average draft position of the 21% who didn't return was the 6th round. Virtually all of the good football players returned.
It's a valiant effort you are making here Mike but you are talking about a player that relies on his speed to be a dynamic playmaker. Even if he does come back at 100% it's an even longer shot that it will be next year when he gets back to that level. As much as I hate to admit I just don't think he gets back to that level of play. But I definitely hope I am wrong.
Johnny, there is no valiant effort here on my part.
I'm posting the statistics. 79% of the players returned from this injury and those who didn't were drafted on average in the 6th round.
Cruz is going to return. I posted it when he got hurt too, but Cadillac Williams actually tore BOTH of his patellar tendons and still came back.
Are the odds less likely for Cruz than players who tear their ACLs. Absolutely. But Eric is and has been characterizing it as if it's some 50/50 crapshoot. It's not. If Cruz doesn't return at all, it will be very very surprising. And if he's a shell of his former self, that too would be a surprise (though certainly a possibility).
will be able to play next year. Any speculation one way or another is just that. The Giants will need to get another WR via FA or the draft in the off season. Remember we had a similar crowd claiming OBJ as a lost cause for the season because he missed virtually all of the off season - how did that prediction pan out???
plain-as-day numbers I'm posting, so I don't think I can really add much more.
I understand humans are loss-averse creatures. If you want to ignore the numbers to better prepare yourself for life without Cruz, then go for it. I like our odds... because, you know, the odds are actually very good.
79% of the players returned and played for an average of almost 3 seasons (45 games). One player in the study returned to play 142 games.
Meaning, there is nearly a 4-out-of-5 chance Cruz will return (and even THAT number ignore that almost all of the good players returned), and if he does, on average, he will have 45 games remaining. Many marginal players have an average career length of 3 years anyway, and Cruz is not marginal, so one would think he'd be in a good position to exceed that.
injury. Non-contact where his patella tendon snapped.
I heard Cruz on Francessa and he sounded great and had the right attitude.
Nothing was ever handed to this guy and I am certain he wilk work as hard or harder than anyone would to come back. I will be rooting for him to do so.
All that said, until proven otherwise I am going to assume he will never be the same player again. The Giants should as well.
Damn shame.
I thought his tendon never snapped, that there was no injury to the tendon, but that the bone the tendon was attached to fractured away from the leg. This is what I've been going with???? anyone care to elaborate??
79% of the players returned and played for an average of almost 3 seasons (45 games). One player in the study returned to play 142 games.
Meaning, there is nearly a 4-out-of-5 chance Cruz will return (and even THAT number ignore that almost all of the good players returned), and if he does, on average, he will have 45 games remaining. Many marginal players have an average career length of 3 years anyway, and Cruz is not marginal, so one would think he'd be in a good position to exceed that.
It doesn't really speak to the quality of the games played after injury, only that he played them. There's a significant chance that he returns but isn't as explosive as he was.
The NFL is not a very forgiving league when it comes to not performing. If players are in on average 45 games after the injury, they're doing something right.
79% of the players returned and played for an average of almost 3 seasons (45 games). One player in the study returned to play 142 games.
Meaning, there is nearly a 4-out-of-5 chance Cruz will return (and even THAT number ignore that almost all of the good players returned), and if he does, on average, he will have 45 games remaining. Many marginal players have an average career length of 3 years anyway, and Cruz is not marginal, so one would think he'd be in a good position to exceed that.
Mike - what percentage of those guys were WRs best attribute is short area quickness and changing directions at full speed?
RE: Randall Cobb is a free agent after this year and chances
79% of the players returned and played for an average of almost 3 seasons (45 games). One player in the study returned to play 142 games.
Meaning, there is nearly a 4-out-of-5 chance Cruz will return (and even THAT number ignore that almost all of the good players returned), and if he does, on average, he will have 45 games remaining. Many marginal players have an average career length of 3 years anyway, and Cruz is not marginal, so one would think he'd be in a good position to exceed that.
Mike - what percentage of those guys were WRs best attribute is short area quickness and changing directions at full speed?
I don't have those numbers, jlukes... and while it absolutely is a fair distinction to make, it's not one that should tip the scales from "very likely to return" to "not likely to return." In fact, just as we don't know if none of them are WRs, we also don't know if many of them are.
What I do know is what I mentioned about Cadillac Williams. Tore his left patella one year, tore his right one the following year. Came back and ran for the same YPC for the rest of his career.
Art Stapleton @art_stapleton
Follow
Victor Cruz has gotten clearance to ditch his crutches. He's able to bend his surgically repaired knee 95 degrees, a good step in recovery.
The NFL is not a very forgiving league when it comes to not performing. If players are in on average 45 games after the injury, they're doing something right.
games played statistic only indicates that they're at least average. Nothing more.
I'm not rooting against Cruz, obviously but it's an open question how close to his former self he comes.
You hope he does, of course, but there has to be a contingency plan, and that plan should NOT be based entirely on Randle or Jernigan developing/recovering. Giants need another good/decent starter opposite OBJ, probably through FA.
He can still have a pretty important role, a poor man's Welker or prime Steve Smith (NYG) where he can be a move the chains kind of WR.
He can still have a pretty important role, a poor man's Welker or prime Steve Smith (NYG) where he can be a move the chains kind of WR.
Based on what Eric posted there is cause to expect Cruz not to be able to play effectively. If he is a no. 2 next year I'll be grateful for the good news. At this point, like David Wilson, prepare for the worst.
I heard the same naive optimism on this site after the injuries to Steve Smith and David Wilson.
Cruz's injury is potentially career-ending and certainly career-affecting.
Agree. It sounds like he probably won't ever be 100 percent, especially if it's harder to recover from than an ACL. Remember that at the highest level of sports, success or failure is decided by the smallest of margins. The tiniest diminution in ability can mean the difference between playing well and not even being on the team.
turning him into a slot possession receiver is fine when you have OBJ!
I heard the same naive optimism on this site after the injuries to Steve Smith and David Wilson.
Cruz's injury is potentially career-ending and certainly career-affecting.
Agreed. I certainly hope not, but realistically he certainly has a high % of never being the same player again.
He is very likely going to come back. He is also more likely than not going to be the same player, though yes, the odds of him not recovering fully are worse for this injury than most other injuries.
But more difficult odds does not equal less than 50% chance or whatever your exact thought is.
If you want to buy into it too by all means, but a suggestion would be to at least wait until he starts his rehab before we start assuming he'll never be dancing in the end zone again.
If you want to ignore that reality, that's up to you.
All positions outside of QB are need positions anyway.
If you want to ignore that reality, that's up to you.
Again, I'm not ignoring anything. I'm taking issue with you saying there is a "very good chance he doesn't come back."
What are you basing this on? I feel like you're unfairly presenting what is perhaps "the hardest injury to come back from" with "Not likely to come back from."
CONCLUSION: Patellar tendon ruptures can occur in otherwise healthy professional football players without antecedent symptoms or predisposing factors. The most common mechanism of injury is eccentric overload. Close attention should be paid to stability examination of the knee given the not uncommon occurrence of concomitant ACL injury. Although this is usually a season-ending injury when it occurs in isolation, acute surgical repair generally produces good functional results and allows for return to play the following season. Players chosen earlier in the draft are more likely to return to play.
To summarize, 19 of the 24 players returned to play football again, with an average of 45 games per player.
Additionally, the average round drafted for the players who didn't return was 6th round. Translation: These guys not returning likely had more to do with their talent than their injury.
Cruz, while undrafted, obviously has the talent of a 1st round draft pick. So really, virtually all good football players returned!
So c'mon, man. You are not representing his chances accurately at all.
Link - ( New Window )
Steve Smith came back too.
Steve Smith came back too.
Huh? How on Earth are you drawing a 1-out-of-5 conclusion from that?
It's a valiant effort you are making here Mike but you are talking about a player that relies on his speed to be a dynamic playmaker. Even if he does come back at 100% it's an even longer shot that it will be next year when he gets back to that level. As much as I hate to admit I just don't think he gets back to that level of play. But I definitely hope I am wrong.
Cruz is going to return. I posted it when he got hurt too, but Cadillac Williams actually tore BOTH of his patellar tendons and still came back.
Are the odds less likely for Cruz than players who tear their ACLs. Absolutely. But Eric is and has been characterizing it as if it's some 50/50 crapshoot. It's not. If Cruz doesn't return at all, it will be very very surprising. And if he's a shell of his former self, that too would be a surprise (though certainly a possibility).
I understand humans are loss-averse creatures. If you want to ignore the numbers to better prepare yourself for life without Cruz, then go for it. I like our odds... because, you know, the odds are actually very good.
Meaning, there is nearly a 4-out-of-5 chance Cruz will return (and even THAT number ignore that almost all of the good players returned), and if he does, on average, he will have 45 games remaining. Many marginal players have an average career length of 3 years anyway, and Cruz is not marginal, so one would think he'd be in a good position to exceed that.
I heard Cruz on Francessa and he sounded great and had the right attitude.
Nothing was ever handed to this guy and I am certain he wilk work as hard or harder than anyone would to come back. I will be rooting for him to do so.
All that said, until proven otherwise I am going to assume he will never be the same player again. The Giants should as well.
Damn shame.
I thought his tendon never snapped, that there was no injury to the tendon, but that the bone the tendon was attached to fractured away from the leg. This is what I've been going with???? anyone care to elaborate??
Meaning, there is nearly a 4-out-of-5 chance Cruz will return (and even THAT number ignore that almost all of the good players returned), and if he does, on average, he will have 45 games remaining. Many marginal players have an average career length of 3 years anyway, and Cruz is not marginal, so one would think he'd be in a good position to exceed that.
It doesn't really speak to the quality of the games played after injury, only that he played them. There's a significant chance that he returns but isn't as explosive as he was.
Optimists are naive and pessimists are realists.
Meaning, there is nearly a 4-out-of-5 chance Cruz will return (and even THAT number ignore that almost all of the good players returned), and if he does, on average, he will have 45 games remaining. Many marginal players have an average career length of 3 years anyway, and Cruz is not marginal, so one would think he'd be in a good position to exceed that.
Mike - what percentage of those guys were WRs best attribute is short area quickness and changing directions at full speed?
Whoa. why wouldn't they bring him back? He's been on fire this year. Not that I'm complaining. =) I'd gladly take him off their hands.
Quote:
79% of the players returned and played for an average of almost 3 seasons (45 games). One player in the study returned to play 142 games.
Meaning, there is nearly a 4-out-of-5 chance Cruz will return (and even THAT number ignore that almost all of the good players returned), and if he does, on average, he will have 45 games remaining. Many marginal players have an average career length of 3 years anyway, and Cruz is not marginal, so one would think he'd be in a good position to exceed that.
Mike - what percentage of those guys were WRs best attribute is short area quickness and changing directions at full speed?
I don't have those numbers, jlukes... and while it absolutely is a fair distinction to make, it's not one that should tip the scales from "very likely to return" to "not likely to return." In fact, just as we don't know if none of them are WRs, we also don't know if many of them are.
What I do know is what I mentioned about Cadillac Williams. Tore his left patella one year, tore his right one the following year. Came back and ran for the same YPC for the rest of his career.
I thought though recovery long, the chances are better for coming back if the latter.
Art Stapleton @art_stapleton
Follow
Victor Cruz has gotten clearance to ditch his crutches. He's able to bend his surgically repaired knee 95 degrees, a good step in recovery.
games played statistic only indicates that they're at least average. Nothing more.
I'm not rooting against Cruz, obviously but it's an open question how close to his former self he comes.