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JPP - Sack Numbers and Free Agency

Emil : 12/8/2014 6:09 pm
Earlier in the season I argued that the Giants should bring back JPP based on his youth, skillset, the premium position he plays in the 4-3, and the fact that the 2015 draft is not shaping up to be a strong one at DE (still some good later round talent there) and most teams don't let good FA DEs walk. I also pointed to Strahan's career, which was lackluster around the time of his first non-rookie contract, as a precedent to hang on to a DE you think has the talent to dominate.

We've all focused on JPP's sack production or lack there of in recent years and until two weeks ago he only had 3 on the season. After facing two subpar offensive teams in the Jags and Titans, he has shot up to 7 sacks. With three games left to play, and one of them being against the Redskins, it is entirely possible he finishes the season with double digit sacks. If so, I would suggest that these sack numbers are misleading, but also underscore that we the fans place too much emphasis on the actual sack numbers and not enough on the following:

1. Pressures/Hurries
2. Double teams faced
3. Play against upper level OTs

I don't have the PFF numbers in front of me, but in watching every game this year I would say JPP has performed well in those categories minus a few games in November. Additionally, he played extremely well against the best OT in the NFC East, Tyron Smith of Dallas.

Would also add that it is the job of the defensive coaching staff to find advantageous match ups for your defensive impact players through scheme and I don't think Fewell has done a good job of that against the stronger teams the Giants have faced, and its one of the main reasons I think he should go.

After 14 weeks, I'm still in the resign JPP camp, but I absolutely do not want to "break the bank" for him. Thankfully, I don't think the Giants will have to. Sure, JPP is going to get a lot of money, but the CAP increase, potential deal restructures, and departure of some older players should free up enough to retain JPP and still rebuild. That being said, I can't imagine a realistic scenario where JPP and Rolle return, unless Rolle provides a significant hometown discount. (No, cutting Eli is not a realistic scenario) That being said, I would rather pay a 26 year old DE who still has room to develop, than pay a 32 year old safety, who is a good player and leader but gives you little return on the huge investment you just made. (JPP is 26 in January and Rolle is 32 in a few days)

JPP may never be Strahan, and honestly we should not expect him to be. Strahan was a HoF player, and was probably the 2nd best DE of his generation when you consider Reggie White. I think the Giants see JPP as a foundational piece of a defense that needs to add another DE and some talent at LB and the fact remains the league knows good DEs don't grown on trees and teams pay money to get and keep one. If I'm Jerry Reese, I sign JPP to a deal that pays him a large amount up front with reductions in the out years, and heavily pursue Buffalo's RDE Jerry Hughes who the Bill's don't think they can keep.

I also think you can move JPP to LDE, but I keep hearing from people who would know that this would not be a good move for him. I'm an amateur, but I just don't see it. He plays the run well, he is big, strong, and has a tremendous bull rush. I say line him up over the RTs and let him go to work. Happy to hear why I am wrong though.

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Re-signing JPP is a must  
NYGmen58 : 12/8/2014 6:14 pm : link
He's a lot better and been more impactful than he appears in the stat sheet this year.

Excellent against the run and will get more sacks when a good DE starts opposite him.
Average Framework for  
area junc : 12/8/2014 6:17 pm : link
a top 43 DE:

6 years, $70M, $35M guaranteed

I'd be OK giving that to JPP. Move him to LDE in a better scheme.
He can walk  
ImaGiant86 : 12/8/2014 6:21 pm : link
.
A move to LDE is something I've been saying all year  
Rjanyg : 12/8/2014 6:36 pm : link
JPP would dominate with that move. Between Moore and Ayers and possibly a draft pick ( Oakman? ) playing RDE,plus keeping JPP our depth would be good. A 5 year deal for $60Mill should get it done.
Oh yea sure....  
Kingofmarketing : 12/8/2014 6:48 pm : link
Let's give him a seven year deal so two years into it his back injuries start flaring up and derailing that whole contract. I'd give him about $5 of guaranteed money!!
Best player on the team this year  
The Turk : 12/8/2014 6:56 pm : link
not named Odell. A must to bring back. Cornerstone player on the defense. I don't see how you can argue not bringing him back.
Glad I don't have to make this decision.  
bceagle05 : 12/8/2014 7:08 pm : link
.
his increased sacks also  
GIANTSr01 : 12/8/2014 7:22 pm : link
coincide with the absence of Kiwi. The poor competition is probably a bigger factor, but having DEs (Ayers/Moore) on the other side that can at least muster *some* pressure has to help too. QBs probably love seeing Kiwi/Kuhn lined up on the left side...
Don't know how anyone can just dismiss keeping him  
UConn4523 : 12/8/2014 7:25 pm : link
we still have no idea what he's demanding not do we know the market temperature on him, especially with his injuries. I for one will wait until I have more info.
A lot of people are too hung up  
TMS : 12/8/2014 7:54 pm : link
on sack numbers. He stops the run, knocks down passes, gets penetration,. gets QB hits, disrupts plays and requires special attention on every play. Without him our front four well be a whole lot worse.
RE: Re-signing JPP is a must  
djstat : 12/8/2014 8:06 pm : link
In comment 12024586 NYGmen58 said:
Quote:
He's a lot better and been more impactful than he appears in the stat sheet this year.

Excellent against the run and will get more sacks when a good DE starts opposite him.


He is? So a guy who doesn't get double teamed is having an impact? Four sacks against the two worst OL in football? Wow. One day I hope I work for you and you will give me a raise for mediocre performance. Sorry let him go
Strahan first 5 years vs JPP  
geelabee : 12/8/2014 8:14 pm : link
Strahan. JPP
97. 15.0. 14. 7.0
96. 5.0. 13. 2.0
95. 7.5. 12. 6.5
94. 4.5. 11 16.5
93. 1.0. 10. 4.5

Total 32. Vs 37

JPP has 5 more sacks then Strahan...and there are still 3 more games in the 14' season...and JPP basically squandered a full season due to injury....

I believe what happened earlier this year is it appears Fewell relied to heavily on older washed up players Kiwi, Jenkins, Paterson, and Ayers...and did not have the foresight to expand the rotation...in the last 2 games...it feels like Fewell expanded the rotation to 8 players...all young players that have been looking to play all season..,the reinforcement have resulted in a fresh JPP at the end of the season....
Sorry  
geelabee : 12/8/2014 8:18 pm : link
Meant to say fresh JPP at the end of games not season..,,JPP is the #1 target of opposing teams and faces double and triple teams so without an 8 man rotation has worn down at the end of games
I  
AcidTest : 12/8/2014 8:41 pm : link
want him back, but I think he's going to want too much $$$. Somebody could easily make him a monster offer. He's also had back surgery, and I'm not sure about his motivation after he receives a huge deal.
JPP has become from being somewhat overrated here on BBI to now being  
Ace718 : 12/8/2014 8:47 pm : link
completely underrated. Let him walk will be a regret. Just need to move him to LDE and get a pass rusher on the other side.
Keep JPP  
spike : 12/8/2014 9:21 pm : link
Tag him if you have to. but JPP is needed in this depleted defense.
JPP  
stretch234 : 12/8/2014 9:25 pm : link
The guy has been full of hustle since he came into the league. He and JJ Watt chase plays all over the place. That is not going to change with a new contract.

It is the guys who do not show anything until the contract year that you worry about

You do not get better by letting 25 yr top end DE go
They already have enough roster positions  
Reese's Pieces : 12/8/2014 9:29 pm : link
to fill with better players. I can't see adding another hole to fill. JPP is also young enough to still have some upside. He can learn better techniques and learn to work with the players around him on twists and blitzes.
Got to resign him  
Paulie Walnuts : 12/8/2014 9:56 pm : link
and draft another DE
It is a tough decision to make......  
Doomster : 12/8/2014 10:09 pm : link
But the open market will offer him more than the Giants will....

His lack of consistency, being shut down single handedly by good OT's, his health problems, his inability to cover the edge, make it hard to pay him the big bucks that could be used elsewhere....

It's not about the Giants not making an offer....it just won't be enough....as I said before, there is always an idiot GM out there willing to break the bank....how do you overpay for what he produced the last three years?
RE: Best player on the team this year  
shabu : 12/8/2014 10:23 pm : link
In comment 12024656 The Turk said:
Quote:
not named Odell. A must to bring back. Cornerstone player on the defense. I don't see how you can argue not bringing him back.


Bullshit, who's your QB
jpp  
hankb1126 : 12/8/2014 10:26 pm : link
well i do not think he deserves a contract over 8 million a season with injuries and lack of production
If the price is right.....  
soolfacts : 12/8/2014 10:42 pm : link
you bring him back, otherwise you let someone else overpay him. Did the Giants overpay Victor Cruz? I think based on his past performance he got a fair deal. Looking back with present information it looks like Cruz was paid a few million too much (per year).
hard-nosed negotiations  
area junc : 12/8/2014 10:42 pm : link
if I'm JPP's agent I say the scheme sucked, was too geared to stopping the run. i say this player puts up huge stats in an attacking front. can play 34 OLB or 43 DE, either side.

i'm asking for the moon initially - citing his 2011 play.

contrast that w/the giants, their "max contract" for non-QBs is seemingly revealed in recent offers/signings:

Antrel Rolle: 5 years, $37M, $15M guaranteed

Chris Snee: 6 years, $42.25M, $17M guaranteed

Victor Cruz: 6 years, $46M, $15.6M guaranteed

Steve Smith: 5 years, $35M, $15M guaranteed

DRC: 5 years, $35M, $14M guaranteed

------------

All remarkably similar deals with remarkably similar guaranteed $$$. i see a tough negotiation w/JPP testing the market
you cannot let him walk......  
Simms11 : 12/8/2014 11:34 pm : link
He is one if the top 4-3 ends in the NFL. Who would you replace him with? We need his athleticism on the Dline. If he has someone on the other ,side to help in the pass rush, he could be very effective and he's still young!
So again one of the few playes Reese actaully hit  
LauderdaleMatty : 12/8/2014 11:34 pm : link
On and going into his prim should be allowed to walk. Really?

Reese probably will let him walk. Why not. The Giants are so loaded with top tier talent they should let one of the 3 guys under 30 who actually produces go. The can re up Kiwi and extend Beason with the cap savings too.
Signing JPP is a must  
Rudy57 : 12/9/2014 12:03 am : link
Last season we lost Nicks and if we lose JPP that would be 2 1st round picks lost and that will set us back quite a bit. We had to use a 1st round pick to replace Nicks, you can't keep doing that and be successful. While he hasnt been great, he is a solid player and still has the potential to be great.

A rookie most likely wont come in and make an impact so we would probably kiss another year away if we lose JPP. Then we will look to the scrap heap to put a bandaid on yet another position.

He played 90% of all defensive snaps.  
SHO'NUFF : 12/9/2014 12:21 am : link
Please tell me he is not important to the team.
JPP is still a better than average DE  
JerseyCityJoe : 12/9/2014 12:21 am : link
That said that's exactly how he should be paid. We need someone who can anchor this defense and he is the best we have. Don't break the bank but lets not let him walk if his demands are not outlandish.
RE: hard-nosed negotiations  
hankb1126 : 12/9/2014 2:35 am : link
In comment 12025097 area junc said:
Quote:
if I'm JPP's agent I say the scheme sucked, was too geared to stopping the run. i say this player puts up huge stats in an attacking front. can play 34 OLB or 43 DE, either side.

i'm asking for the moon initially - citing his 2011 play.

contrast that w/the giants, their "max contract" for non-QBs is seemingly revealed in recent offers/signings:

Antrel Rolle: 5 years, $37M, $15M guaranteed

Chris Snee: 6 years, $42.25M, $17M guaranteed

Victor Cruz: 6 years, $46M, $15.6M guaranteed

Steve Smith: 5 years, $35M, $15M guaranteed

DRC: 5 years, $35M, $14M guaranteed

------------

All remarkably similar deals with remarkably similar guaranteed $$$. i see a tough negotiation w/JPP testing the market


i see you list two free agent signings in drc and rolle free agent signings are on a need basis and paid what the rate for that season and which smith are you talking about our stve smith did not get any contract he went free agent

i like jpp but is he worth much more than 8 million a season
i see an offer of 40 million for 5 years with 15-20 of that guaranteed
Sacks  
Dragon : 12/9/2014 4:23 am : link
JPP has to get more sacks it's the reason why you consider him in the top five DE's no question about that. Sure he is great against the run but sacks create game changing plays tackles may prevent a 1st down or 2nd/3rd and long. He also spends to much time lying on the field minor hurts this does not bode well from past experience for us. His moves to the QB are 1st year in the league still to this point and he seems to have lost much of his quickness. I can't tell if he has a quick 1st step because he has not shown it to us in the last three years. He could be exactly what he seems to be a very good run defense DE but limited pass rusher which is what he has shown us for several years.

JPP is going to become a major problem to resign unless this is where he wants to be and is willing to move to LDE. JR is going to be in a position where no matter what he does fans will not be happy a big contract or let him walk. I'm just not sure if investing big money on a run 1st DE is a wise move in a pass happy league. The real problem also is we have no idea what the rest of the league values him at a real pickle for our front office.
JPP  
Dragon : 12/9/2014 4:34 am : link
Made 3+ mil this year Ayers made less than 1 mil and until his injury was ahead of JPP in sacks. Can you sign two DE's one stout against the run another with pass rush ability for less than 6 mil for sure yes and you double down in case of injury. To sign JPP for over 6 mil and see him get hurt and your return just gone down the drain is scary. It could end up being an in house decision on the true value the Giants have on JPP and the league value they could be miles apart.
Years  
Dragon : 12/9/2014 4:38 am : link
Under no circumstances would I go beyond five years in any contract negotiations for JPP that's just to much of a risk with his injury history.
He's helped himself  
RetroJint : 12/9/2014 5:06 am : link
by playing every game this season. Once they get to walk year, you usually lose them. Not to seem unduly critical here, but this is a function of the VP-GM. There is nobody better on the roster as a 2-way DE. If they lose him & think they can get away with a Moore-Ayers combination, they are mistaken. The Giants operate like they did under George Young Part 2, Young the Lesser. Every year they lose one of their best players.
I don't think he has shown any effort to improve  
SB : 12/9/2014 7:22 am : link
...which makes me question his love for the game. I wouldn't give a big contract to a guy like that. He'll coast as soon as he signs.
JPP  
stretch234 : 12/9/2014 8:24 am : link
8M is not getting it done. There are 12 guys making 8M right now and he is better than most.

Chris Long numbers 4-48 20M guaranteed are a minimum
Rock and a hard place  
JonC : 12/9/2014 8:32 am : link
He might be a $12M per potential talent, but that's significantly higher than his actual value relative to the past three seasons.

Not an easy decision because of the salary cap, you can't simply say "must sign" and throw market dollars at him. I hope JPP and his agent are willing to compromise, otherwise I think he's gone.

Think we have to  
TMS : 12/9/2014 9:00 am : link
retain him even if it means using the tag. Our defense has no one else who will command the type of adjustments made for his presence. Getting an impact DE is not easy to do in this league, and he is that, if he continues to play hard and improve. Of course if he loses his desire to be the best he can be, we will be screwed. We hopefully have a handle on that and do the right thing.
Franchise Tag will be $14-15M  
JonC : 12/9/2014 9:04 am : link
not gonna happen.
RE: Rock and a hard place  
LauderdaleMatty : 12/9/2014 9:11 am : link
In comment 12025335 JonC said:
Quote:
He might be a $12M per potential talent, but that's significantly higher than his actual value relative to the past three seasons.

Not an easy decision because of the salary cap, you can't simply say "must sign" and throw market dollars at him. I hope JPP and his agent are willing to compromise, otherwise I think he's gone.


True but what's the option? Letting him walk leaves the Giants devoid of literally the only star potential player on that side of the ball. I also think that Fewell is horrifically bad at reaching/motivating his squad. . He's not a bad coach but mediocre at best in most things. I'd love to see what a real motivator could do for the D and Pierre Paul. Hopefully they can get creative w bonus opportunities. If he leaves other than Hankins and Prince the D is really thin on guys who are honestly above average at this point.
From only a football standpoint, I don't disagree, LM  
JonC : 12/9/2014 9:17 am : link
I'd like to see what a motivating DC could do with him (and the whole group), but the cap forces tough decisions.

This is a bad football team. Losing their best DE isn't remotely optimal, but it's not like this roster is a season or two away from contention either. They need to be cautious with paying JPP market dollars unless they have no questions internally, and I don't believe that's the case.
to hankb  
area junc : 12/9/2014 9:20 am : link
you are right, that was the contract Steve Smith turned down from us. he got the same offer cruz did

my point here is i don't see the giants offering JPP anymore than they offered those players. that seems to be the max amount of $$$ they will spend on a non-QB

here's another one:

chris canty: 6 years, $42M, $17.25M guaranteed

That's another one. they all fall almost eerily similar years, dollar amount and guaranteed money.

now if u want to add inflation to those numbers (even though they've been largely immune to inflation) i do not see an offer of more than $20M guaranteed. Conversely I do not see JPP's agent asking for anything less than $40M guaranteed. Like a car accident in slow motion.
you don't overpay a DE for stopping the run  
Greg from LI : 12/9/2014 9:21 am : link
That's ridiculous. And give me a break with the "he still has upside!" nonsense. If he hasn't learned any technique in five years (which he hasn't), it's a fairly safe assumption that he never will.
I think we need to pay the man  
JFIB : 12/9/2014 9:30 am : link
I want to see JPP in a new system here. I really feel as though Perry will be gone and a new DC will be brought in who will find ways to improve JPP's technique and use him better.
Kareem  
area junc : 12/9/2014 9:36 am : link
McKenzie: 7 years, $38M, $12.5M guaranteed (10 years ago)

Beatty: 5 years, $37.5M, $19M guaranteed

again, these contracts all fall in the same vicinity as to what we're willing to spend.

do we really value JPP that much more than mcK, cruz, rolle, snee, etc. when we re-signed them? is JPP even going to consider those dollar amounts??
get Suh, resign Ayers, play Moore and get rid of Fewell and  
dangerousrappingfrog : 12/9/2014 9:58 am : link
you will see the sack numbers on this team go up. If you can resign JPP after than than fine (doubtful). Rolle can go too unless he wants to play at a discount.
JPP seems to be more productive when he is moving around.  
mofti : 12/9/2014 10:03 am : link
something we have seen in the last 2 weeks. I blame PF for the fall off in his numbers.

The guy is one hell of a player in a position this organization values a lot. Can't see them let this guy walking for nothing.
JPP is a must re-sign  
djm : 12/9/2014 10:08 am : link
Period.

And remember in the nfl contracts aren't necessarily guaranteed so JPP will have to perform if he wants to keep earning that big contract everyone is so afraid to hand him.

The guy has paid his dues and displayed that he can play coming back from the injury. Keep him in blue. He's a keeper.
"one hell of a player"???  
Greg from LI : 12/9/2014 10:17 am : link
baaaahahhahaha....sure he is, if it were 2011 again. It isn't.
He's not a must re-sign  
JonC : 12/9/2014 10:18 am : link
Stop it. I do agree they need to incentivize any contract offered to him as protection, but it's entirely possible JPP's agent pushes him past the threshold.

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