NFT: Heyman: Mets & Rockies quiety working on Tulowitzki deal

teams, but until we know how much COL is asking for and if they are willing to pick up any money its hard to guess if its possible or not. Obviously the 5-10 percent comment isnt promising but im guessing big deals like this always start off with a low percentage of completion. As far as we know COL is asking for Noah, Nimmo, Plawecki, etc.. and not willing to pick up any of the remaining money. If thats the case im sure the mets arent feeling confident that a deal is going to happen.

Thor as centerpiece is fine. Gee as another piece also fine. Add in a guy like Reynolds or Plawecki, ok (or their equivalent). But more than that and it starts becoming excessive considering the money they'd also be taking on.

His contract isn't unreasonable and if they're confident he's healthy now, you go for it and don't look back. Even with the injuries he's had 5+ WAR in 5 of the past 6 seasons. But you can't give up 3-4 of your top 5 prospects for any single player unless it's a guy like Stanton.

at SS to be a piece you can count on moving forward.

Coming off hip surgery, batted .250 away from Coors last year, makes way too much money and over 30. Who cares what he batted at Citi last year, how many games was that. Could be a potential disaster, but I guess when you're desperate ala the Mets...

but Tulowitzki is one of the best players in the game when healthy and a true MVP candidate. Not too many of those become available, let alone at age 30 on a reasonable contract (basically the equivalent of the deal Hanley just got, except he plays a GG shortstop).

5 WAR+ in 5 of the past 6 seasons. Though if there are any signs of chronic injury you can't do it.

really willing to add $20 million to the payroll? Maybe if Gee is in the deal, which takes about $5 mil off of the books, and/or the Rockies kick in some money it could happen.

none of whom are on the books for next year, and would theoretically vacate about 25M dollars from this year's payroll.

It stands to reason Gee would be in the trade since the Rox have been interested in him all along. Trading Murphy somewhere to recoup prospects and save $ would make sense considering they could slot in Flores or Herrera. Colon doesn't make sense to trade since you won't get much back, but if they needed the money for Tulo then so be it.

that deal doesn't happen

ask the Yankees about paying a guy 20 million per for six years when his production is in decline.

and it wasn't much beyond Syndergaard and COL ate some cash.

So, yeah, a trade in favor of the Mets.

Otherwise they're a SS away from contending with all their prospects still here and I'd see if Flores can be the guy at SS for half a season before dealing thor.

I'm not saying Flores can be Tulo, but he might be good enough.

a Jeff Wilpon "see? we're not cheap" leak if there ever was one.

In this type of deal I trust Alderson to appropriately negotiate a good deal, and if the Rox are being unreasonable and it doesn't happen so be it. If the medicals suck, fine. But the 100M shouldn't be the reason this deal doesn't happen. Tulowitzki is worth 200M on the open market if he's healthy, so the contract isn't nuts and is certainly worth the gamble.

Did not come from the Mets. They have been as tight lipped as possible all offseason.

It's time to make a move.

I've wavered on this a lot but I want Tulo. Go get him. Fucking excite the fan base.

Signing Cuddyer and going home isn't going to cut it. At some point you need to go for it and say "we plan on being a factor this year"

Make it happen.

happening per Rubin


NEW YORK -- The Mets and Rockies have engaged in some talks this offseason regarding Troy Tulowitzki, but a well-placed source told ESPNNewYork.com the chances of something ever materializing are 5 percent at best.

No talks are believed to have been overly recent. And an insider said the Mets fans clamoring for a Tulo acquisition would go "bat s---" if they knew the package the Rockies wanted for Tulowitzki.

The comment came in response to a CBSSports.com report about dialogue between the Mets and Rockies. That report acknowledged the chances of a trade between the clubs involving Tulowitzki were "slim."

of the writers just told me the Rockies want Syndergaard and at least 3 of Matz, Herrera, Nimmo and Conforto + Gee or Niese. Jesus lol

if he (likely) remains injury prone.

Especially since this is a franchise that will say "well we have Tulo. We can't really spend on anything else."

Just know that this is probably THE big move for a while, and if it remains a bad situation, they're completely screwed long term.

Well, if they're going to be completely unrealistic.. fuck it.

They can't expect the Mets to give up THAT much. Maybe the price comes down a bit. If not, too bad.

is a silly quote

"And an insider said the Mets fans clamoring for a Tulo acquisition would go "bat s---" if they knew the package the Rockies wanted for Tulowitzki."

Fans don't go "bat shit" over asking prices. They go "bat shit" over actually giving it up.

If Niese and Gee are two of the "three of", I'd probably do it though.

Syndergaard, Nimmo, Niese, Gee and maybe one other piece. That I would do.

If Thor is getting moved I am not moving Matz in the same deal, though. I want to keep Conforto and Herrera as well.

I know what you are saying but the writer specifically said as of now the Niese or Gee part is like a throw-in. They want Thor and 3 "big" other pieces + one of them.

Is that Jon Heyman you are quoting by any chance??

would be a no-brainer but also unrealistic. The Mets would LOVE such a deal. Tulo would only be adding 8 million in 2015 salary in such a deal.

In comment 12042634 deboGIANTS said:

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Is that Jon Heyman you are quoting by any chance??

While I used to speak to Heyman on AIM I haven't spoken to him in a while. I often repeat the story of how his wife bought me an Ipod but no, it was one of the beat guys.

In comment 12042637 DanMetroMan said:

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would be a no-brainer but also unrealistic. The Mets would LOVE such a deal. Tulo would only be adding 8 million in 2015 salary in such a deal.

That's why I'd do it!

It's def unrealistic, though. I just above all would not move Thor and Matz in the same deal. One, sure. Both? Nah.

Outside of Thor, Matz and Conforto are the two guys I really don't want to move.

that was crazy

I haven't read up on him much but I thought he was seriously hurt last season? Sure would be nice if the Mets got some type of insurance built into the trade based on number of games played next season.

I'd give Thor in a millisecond in a Tulo deal. I just want to go on record as being pro deal DEPENDING on the deal. I'd give up Thor + 1 of the other big name prospects other than Matz plus 2 of the "tier 2" guys if need be.

In comment 12042646 steve in ky said:

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I haven't read up on him much but I thought he was seriously hurt last season? Sure would be nice if the Mets got some type of insurance built into the trade based on number of games played next season.

Can't rework deals however and I don't think I've ever seen a trade where teams get more money if a guy players less. He's supposed to be ready for ST.

Flores, Nimmo, Cecchini + Gee or Niese for Tulo, Rex Brothers, Ramiel Tapia and cash. Do it up.

In comment 12042652 DanMetroMan said:

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Flores, Nimmo, Cecchini + Gee or Niese for Tulo, Rex Brothers, Ramiel Tapia and cash. Do it up.

Sign me up for that.

In comment 12042492 Italianju said:

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teams, but until we know how much COL is asking for and if they are willing to pick up any money its hard to guess if its possible or not. Obviously the 5-10 percent comment isnt promising but im guessing big deals like this always start off with a low percentage of completion. As far as we know COL is asking for Noah, Nimmo, Plawecki, etc.. and not willing to pick up any of the remaining money. If thats the case im sure the mets arent feeling confident that a deal is going to happen.

Makes no sense for the Mets. You want to risk that kind of money. Risk it on that Cuban kid

I was thinking less about the money and more about which or how many players are included. Make some of the players to be named later once a certain percentage of the season is done based on how many games he was healthy enough to play in.

Tulo is a great player, no doubt, but taking on his contract just by itself is a huge risk.

On top of that the Rockies want to back up the truck to our farm system and take all our best players plus some valuable MLB arms on top of it? Who would agree to such a thing?

In comment 12042656 steve in ky said:

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I was thinking less about the money and more about which or how many players are included. Make some of the players to be named later once a certain percentage of the season is done based on how many games he was healthy enough to play in.

steve
In theory that makes sense but I'm not sure it's really "legal" since you don't ever see it happen. His health is the #1 concern for sure.

and go get a guy whose body is older than his actual age b/c he's going to breakdown.

is going wild. As I said ont he other thread Middlebrooks has been a bust but that's a nice gamble. Very nice.

one of the stud Cubs shortshops over Tulo, any day.

If we trade for him, he will get hurt and end up making Jason Bay look like a good player for us.
I think its just too much of a risk for an aging player with a hip injury. If it was wrist or ankle fine, but hips injuries can be tricky.

contention is going to be very tough for the Mets even if they do improve by a few wins.

Nats are clearly the class of the NL East (any debate stating otherwise is homerism).

Marlins are roughly the same caliber of team as the Mets (2 less wins last year, added more in the off-season)

Braves on paper are worse

Phillies on paper are awful


Cardinals and Pirates are both better than the Mets both in record and talent (hard to debate either one), I think the Brewers were a fluke and may suck this year but the Cubs should certainly be better (Lester, year 2 for a lot of their young talent), Reds could go either way.

Giants, Dodgers and Padres should all be better than the Mets.

It's not impossible the Mets compete for the playoffs but they will need a lot of luck in their favor.

In comment 12042697 spike said:

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one of the stud Cubs shortshops over Tulo, any day.

You want to give me Wheeler for Baez?

for Russell and you have a deal.

I hate to say it but the Marlins are going to be a problem.

Writers starting to take them to task re: not spending money (Carig), more deals going down they aren't part of, writer with sources to the Wilpons gets whiff now, after months of negotiations kept quiet and just after Sandy once again said unlikely to do anything until January. Oh well, at least they are considering it.

Heyman says the financial part would have to be similar to Kemp deal (but that hasn't been discussed yet) and the Rockies have backed off their initially crazy demands. I personally think the Rox want to move him and there's a chance this could happen. Gee + Thor + Reynolds/Plawecki would be as good as any package given up for any of the bigger names this offseason so I have a hard time believing the price will be much higher than that all things considered ($, injuries).

In comment 12042725 Eric on Li said:

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Writers starting to take them to task re: not spending money (Carig), more deals going down they aren't part of, writer with sources to the Wilpons gets whiff now, after months of negotiations kept quiet and just after Sandy once again said unlikely to do anything until January. Oh well, at least they are considering it. Heyman says the financial part would have to be similar to Kemp deal (but that hasn't been discussed yet) and the Rockies have backed off their initially crazy demands. I personally think the Rox want to move him and there's a chance this could happen. Gee + Thor + Reynolds/Plawecki would be as good as any package given up for any of the bigger names this offseason so I have a hard time believing the price will be much higher than that all things considered ($, injuries).

Eric,
Rubin checked in this morning and said the Mets sources told him the price would make the Mets fans "bat shit" so I'm sure the price is still sky high. Interestingly both BA and Sickels downplayed Reynolds despite his big year. Eddy actually praised him but said he saw him as a 2b who can occasionally play some SS, compared him to Mark Ellis offensively.

wonder if the Mets point to a potential Gee/Brothers deal as "proof" they were trying for Tulo. "See we traded with the Rockies!". I like Brothers but part of me wishes they would stop worrying about an MLB return and get the best possible talent. McMahon, Tapia, Anderson etc.

Thor, Wilmer, Niese, Nimmo, Plawecki, Whalen for Tulo, Brothers and Dahl OMG! (jk).

Correction: 3 pickups from voters who omitted Piazza a year ago, 1 drop.

In comment 12042732 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 12042725 Eric on Li said: Quote: Writers starting to take them to task re: not spending money (Carig), more deals going down they aren't part of, writer with sources to the Wilpons gets whiff now, after months of negotiations kept quiet and just after Sandy once again said unlikely to do anything until January. Oh well, at least they are considering it. Heyman says the financial part would have to be similar to Kemp deal (but that hasn't been discussed yet) and the Rockies have backed off their initially crazy demands. I personally think the Rox want to move him and there's a chance this could happen. Gee + Thor + Reynolds/Plawecki would be as good as any package given up for any of the bigger names this offseason so I have a hard time believing the price will be much higher than that all things considered ($, injuries). Eric, Rubin checked in this morning and said the Mets sources told him the price would make the Mets fans "bat shit" so I'm sure the price is still sky high. Interestingly both BA and Sickels downplayed Reynolds despite his big year. Eddy actually praised him but said he saw him as a 2b who can occasionally play some SS, compared him to Mark Ellis offensively.

Rubin also admitted the 5% chance is a huge upgrade from what he'd earlier heard (not happening), so clearly there was some deception going on - which has been common for Alderson and his team. There's really only 1 person in the Mets org. not under Sandy's control and that's who I believe leaked this story.

I also believe that talks have not been that serious and Sandy has been waiting out the Rox for their price to drop - just like he attempted to do with Justin Upton/AZ 2 years ago. Maybe check back in January to see if there's any traction in the ballpark of what he's willing to deal. I do think the pieces on the board setup well for something to materialize then.

the Mets really made a bunch of "secret" moves? We 100% knew they liked Cuddyer and then signed Cuddyer. We knew last year they wanted one of the bigger OF's (Choo was the guy people kept saying) and landed cheaper Granderson. Seems to me the Mets are pretty "clear" what they intend on doing. I think Rubin tweeted the Mets have traded for 4 MLB players (aka non-prospects) in Sandy's tenure here? Is that accurate? wow.

Hanigan for Middlebrooks and then sign Ross to replace Hanigan. Really nice move

In comment 12042819 DanMetroMan said:

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the Mets really made a bunch of "secret" moves? We 100% knew they liked Cuddyer and then signed Cuddyer. We knew last year they wanted one of the bigger OF's (Choo was the guy people kept saying) and landed cheaper Granderson. Seems to me the Mets are pretty "clear" what they intend on doing. I think Rubin tweeted the Mets have traded for 4 MLB players (aka non-prospects) in Sandy's tenure here? Is that accurate? wow.

Granderson was a very obvious one but Colon came out of nowhere and Cuddyer signed less than a week after sources had come out and said he was totally off the radar. Colon in particular was the out of nowhere. But you're right there's not a huge track record to go off. They also downplayed their interest in Drew/Balfour last year saying neither were options when both supposedly had offers on the table.

but downplaying interest in Drew, Sandy openly admitted interest just not at Drew's number, he was public with it. Colon is a fair one, Balfour was the odd "available late in FA" option (they oddly didn't go after Rodney in the same situation/timing) but overall they pretty much "show" what they are going to do. In fact, fans/writers have mentioned Cuddyer as the Mets #1 target since mid-season. Maybe they will prove me wrong but I think the Mets (while maybe good at keeping leaks to a minimum) really aren't very "stealth" or surprising. Colon the one exception to me.

had Carig saying the QO turned them off, not that they didn't like the player. In fact, Rubin had him on the 2015 team in his "2015 plan" before FA even began.

In comment 12042568 sjnyfan said:

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that deal doesn't happen

Seriously,

I have been a loyal fan but they are grasping at straws here... will give away too much, have to pay a ridiculous amount for what... a hope and a prayer? Syndegaard will be involved...

this is typical of the Met organization and i don't see how it will work out.

I don't want to have to stop being a fan because I fail to see how any competent manager/GM could make this deal

In comment 12043016 whobetta said:

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In comment 12042568 sjnyfan said: Quote: that deal doesn't happen Seriously, I have been a loyal fan but they are grasping at straws here... will give away too much, have to pay a ridiculous amount for what... a hope and a prayer? Syndegaard will be involved... this is typical of the Met organization and i don't see how it will work out. I don't want to have to stop being a fan because I fail to see how any competent manager/GM could make this deal

They need to take chances. But Tulo is a dumb one. This guy is never healthy.

In comment 12042655 Rflairr said:

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In comment 12042492 Italianju said: Makes no sense for the Mets. You want to risk that kind of money. Risk it on that Cuban kid

Thank you!!!... pay the money for the cuban... don't throw away our prospects for an over the hill injury prone not as good away from home guy that will be a harbinger to the franchise for the remainder of his contract

just improved further

David Waldstein ‏@DavidWaldstein 4s4 seconds ago

source: Yanks close to getting RHP Nathan Eovaldi and other (maybe Garrett Jones) for Prado and Phelps @JackCurryYES and @flasportsbuzz 1st

now have

Morse, Prado, Gordon, McGahee, Salty, Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich

Would make more sense than Tulo.

Reyes is injury prone, getting up there in age and makes a lot of money.. oh wait... =x

Just not necessarily fire. Mets/Wilpons did not leak anything this morning about Tulo, but responded very quickly via Rubin to put a damper on it immediately.

I think it is very safe to say that there are more than just the Gee/Brothers/Tulo matchups. Smaller trades could be done in a minute, both sides know that. But holding out hope of a much bigger deal. Just a logical guess here...

The prick walked off the field with a batting title and took the money to play elsewhere. Let him buy more bags of ice for his knees in Toronto. (Blank) Reyes.

on mean they are whispering the offers to each other? or talking in hushed tones?

because if it was really "media quiet" how did this story leak?

In comment 12043133 Giants2012 said:

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The prick walked off the field with a batting title and took the money to play elsewhere. Let him buy more bags of ice for his knees in Toronto. (Blank) Reyes.

Of course he took the money to play elsewhere. The Mets never even offered him anything.

better than the Mets? Seriously? Assuming they don't make another trade(who's playing CF??) they should have a decent middle order but their lineup is not better then ours and our rotation blows them away. Kennedy, Ross, Cashner, Despagne, and Erlin??

In comment 12042614 DanMetroMan said:

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of the writers just told me the Rockies want Syndergaard and at least 3 of Matz, Herrera, Nimmo and Conforto + Gee or Niese. Jesus lol

That sort of package should get you Jesus. A low spending team like the Mets could never do a deal like that. We couldnt trade that for Trout. Because we'd need some of those prospects to fill holes; a big spending team could clear out the system because they can fill multiple holes in UFA.

nutty. They started off demanding deGrom, Syndergaard, plus a big prospect. Now they are doing us a favor by softening to Syndergaard, Nimmo, Conforto, Herrera, Matz, and Neise? lol.

a young catcher with five more cheap years, who can hit and field, is a huge value.

To me, D'Arnaud and Syndergaard gets it done. They are not getting a better package than that for a guy with injury red flags.

In comment 12043419 ZGiants98 said:

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nutty. They started off demanding deGrom, Syndergaard, plus a big prospect. Now they are doing us a favor by softening to Syndergaard, Nimmo, Conforto, Herrera, Matz, and Neise? lol.

You have to ask for a lot to get a lot. But I suspect that they dont have the appetite to treat Tulo as "damaged goods" even if half the teams would want no part of him. Im thinking their owner is willing/happy to just keep Tulo.

Syndergaard, ONE of Nimmo or Plawecki, and Neise or Gee. That would be my final offer and it wold be contingent on a full battery ram of physical health tests. Torn hip labrums? We don't need another A-Rod in NY.

In comment 12043448 oipolloi said:

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a young catcher with five more cheap years, who can hit and field, is a huge value. To me, D'Arnaud and Syndergaard gets it done. They are not getting a better package than that for a guy with injury red flags.

I don't see the point in that though. Now you've created a huge hole at catcher. I don't think Plawecki is ready just yet and even if he was he hasn't gotten over the hump at the major league level yet like TDA appears to have already done.

In comment 12043455 Deej said:

Quote:

In comment 12043419 ZGiants98 said: Quote: nutty. They started off demanding deGrom, Syndergaard, plus a big prospect. Now they are doing us a favor by softening to Syndergaard, Nimmo, Conforto, Herrera, Matz, and Neise? lol. You have to ask for a lot to get a lot. But I suspect that they dont have the appetite to treat Tulo as "damaged goods" even if half the teams would want no part of him. Im thinking their owner is willing/happy to just keep Tulo.

I don't know. We've heard Tulo wants out of Colorado. We've heard Colorado approached the Mets on the first day of the winter meetings wanting to make a trade. I just think their expectations of what they should get back for an injured SS in his 30s with over a 100 million left on his deal is bonkers.

I think D'Arnaud will hit for more power than Plawecki. But Plawecki is a contact hitter. Mets need a guy like that. Having too many high K guys makes the lineup vulnerable to strikeout pitchers, of which there are an increasing number in the NL.

D'Arnaud is probably better defensively but overall the Mets D will improve if you add Tulo at SS

d'Arnaud's defense is pretty shitty.

I like him a lot as a hitter though. I think the improvements he made last year were real deal and that he's going to be one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. I'll trade the bad defense for that.

In comment 12043463 ZGiants98 said:

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I don't see the point in that though. Now you've created a huge hole at catcher. I don't think Plawecki is ready just yet and even if he was he hasn't gotten over the hump at the major league level yet like TDA appears to have already done.

The reason I do it is that D'Arnaud has a lot of trade value, and the Mets are in the highly unusual position of having two young catchers. Trade the one with the most value and keep the other guy. I also think Plawecki will be a more consistent hitter than TDA, albeit with less power. I think he can hit .280 and that eventually he will hit 15 HR.

In comment 12043476 arcarsenal said:

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d'Arnaud's defense is pretty shitty. I like him a lot as a hitter though. I think the improvements he made last year were real deal and that he's going to be one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. I'll trade the bad defense for that.

His D has not been great, but he was voted the best defensive catcher in the Eastern League by opposing managers, so you have to think that the pass balls were the result of anxiety and that eventually he will be a decent defender.

has been projected to be an above average defensive backstop his entire professional career. He'll never be great throwing out runners but he should be middle of the pack as long as the bone chips are no longer an issue. Lets let the kid make adjustments and see if he can cut the passed balls down a little before we proclaim his a shitty defender for the rest of his careers. MOST catchers improve substantially going into their second full seasons. They simply have a ton more going on and a lot more to learn then most rookies.

In comment 12043480 oipolloi said:

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In comment 12043463 ZGiants98 said: Quote: I don't see the point in that though. Now you've created a huge hole at catcher. I don't think Plawecki is ready just yet and even if he was he hasn't gotten over the hump at the major league level yet like TDA appears to have already done. The reason I do it is that D'Arnaud has a lot of trade value, and the Mets are in the highly unusual position of having two young catchers. Trade the one with the most value and keep the other guy. I also think Plawecki will be a more consistent hitter than TDA, albeit with less power. I think he can hit .280 and that eventually he will hit 15 HR.

That's completely fair. I just think if you are trading the farm for Tulo we are clearly going for it. Plawecki needs more seasoning and even if we throw him into the fire, do we really want to wait half a season(like TDA last year) for him to figure it out?? And that's also assuming he surpasses what TDA did as well? Its a real risky proposition. I get the logic though.

In comment 12043460 ZGiants98 said:

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Syndergaard, ONE of Nimmo or Plawecki, and Neise or Gee. That would be my final offer and it wold be contingent on a full battery ram of physical health tests. Torn hip labrums? We don't need another A-Rod in NY.

That's a reasonable package.

Tulo + Plawecki

is still a huge upgrade over

TDA + Tejada/Flores

I think it is on the generous side to project Tulo as a 4.5 WAR player for the remainder of his contract, since he's an injury risk twice over (likely both to miss big time AND just need a lot of rest) and he's on the wrong side of 30. But if you give him that projection, his excess value is about $70 million aka 10 WAR.

Steamer has TDA as a 3 fWAR player next season. We have 5 more years of cost control on a 3 fWAR catcher? And frankly I think he could hit for a higher average than Steamer's projected .254. He's a career ~.325 hitter at AA/AAA. I dont have a lot of trouble projecting TDA as at least a 15 WAR player over the next 5 seasons. Add in the expected value for Thor of about 10 WAR over the next 7 seasons, again cost controlled (estimate ballparked from fivethirtyeight.com). That is 25+ WAR expected performance and because of cost controls where guys are dirt cheap for 3 years and then get 40-60-80 percent of their UFA value over the arb years, we're going to pay way less than 15 WAR ($90 million) for the next 5-6 years of Thor and TDA.

I think Thor and TDA is a deal you only consider if you're already a strong contender. That is a big payment. Im ready to have my math/assumptions torn apart.

15 fWAR would be $105 million. We'll pay less than $105 million for the non-UFA years of TDA and Thor.

In comment 12043518 Deej said:

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I think it is on the generous side to project Tulo as a 4.5 WAR player for the remainder of his contract, since he's an injury risk twice over (likely both to miss big time AND just need a lot of rest) and he's on the wrong side of 30. But if you give him that projection, his excess value is about $70 million aka 10 WAR. Steamer has TDA as a 3 fWAR player next season. We have 5 more years of cost control on a 3 fWAR catcher? And frankly I think he could hit for a higher average than Steamer's projected .254. He's a career ~.325 hitter at AA/AAA. I dont have a lot of trouble projecting TDA as at least a 15 WAR player over the next 5 seasons. Add in the expected value for Thor of about 10 WAR over the next 7 seasons, again cost controlled (estimate ballparked from fivethirtyeight.com). That is 25+ WAR expected performance and because of cost controls where guys are dirt cheap for 3 years and then get 40-60-80 percent of their UFA value over the arb years, we're going to pay way less than 15 WAR ($90 million) for the next 5-6 years of Thor and TDA. I think Thor and TDA is a deal you only consider if you're already a strong contender. That is a big payment. Im ready to have my math/assumptions torn apart.

I think you are dead on. And that is almost worst case scenario regarding Thor and TDA. Syndergaard accumulating 10 WAR over 7 years would be a travesty. The guy's is predicted to be an ACE. He could hit 10 WAR in only 2 seasons let alone 7. Same for TDA. His projections are very conservative. He could easily break out a little further than what he showed us last year.

Yeah, I have zero interest in trading TDA. That's a guy I want to keep.

In comment 12043506 oipolloi said:

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Tulo + Plawecki is still a huge upgrade over TDA + Tejada/Flores

Yes but is Tulo+Plawecki

better than

TDA, Flores, and Syndergaard?

I don't know honestly.

but he is a guy that realistically can be the centerpiece of a deal to bring Tulo back

the only reason you can trade TDA is that you have Plawecki. That's an incredible strength to have two young catchers. Deal from strength.

a bunch of spare parts like Gee, Montero and Flores is not getting it done. You want Tulo, you gotta give something up.

I'd compare it to the Gary Carter trade. Mets gave up Hubie Brooks, who had hit .300 his first year. Or the Keith Hernandez trade, where the Mets gave up a seemingly great young closer in Neal Allen.

is to make it a 3 team trade where some of the assets going to COL for Tulo come from a 3rd team that gets Murphy. Tulo at SS and Flores/Herrera at 2B.

are already giving up one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in the game who is major league ready and is touted as a future ace. The guy throws a 100 MPH. He might be the best pitcher on our staff in a year. That's the center of the deal. No need to throw in our young future all-star catcher as well.

In comment 12043556 oipolloi said:

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but he is a guy that realistically can be the centerpiece of a deal to bring Tulo back

Makes sense, but then you cant give Thor. Thor is too much value as a second piece.

If Thor is going in a Tulo deal, he's the centerpiece. There's no reason to move TDA with him.

Colorado is being extremely unrealistic. I have no problem rolling with Flores for a half a season, evaluating Reynolds a bit further, and then deciding. Even conservative Steamer has Flores outhitting Starlin Castro. Lets see what we have first.

The Rockies think they are holding on to a young Trout or something and are going to rebuild their team in one foul swoop. They need a dose of reality. Nobody is giving up what they are asking for.

Profar as well. If his shoulder truly checks out in the spring maybe that's who you trade Thor for.

With the Mets finances, they can't take the risk. A team like the Yankees or Dodgers can take him on because if he can't play, they can afford to swallow the contract.

Not the Mets.

If Tulo re-injuries himself and can't play, that contract could actually sink what looks like a promising future.

So, unless the Wilpons give assurances that they will swallow the contract, should the need arise, I don't trade for Tulo if I'm Sandy.

what we have this season. There weren't many holes to begin with. The club just looks solid from top to bottom. I view this as YEAR 1 post rebuild and us competing for a wild card. Its not close to a finished product but most of the talent has arrived or is on the verge of arriving. I view this as climbing a mountain. In a year or two when guys like deGrom and Wheeler and TDA start hitting their primes, I expect us to challenging for the division and the WS. Much of our talent only just completed their first year. There will be jumps in production but it shouldn't be expected all at once. If Matz and Thor fulfill their billings as number 1 and number 2 starters, we might have one of the best young rotations in the history of baseball.

Either way, the time is now. The losing days are over. Time to sit back and watch some very good Mets teams win some baseball games.

if David is healthy and hits the way he can, this team has a good chance of competing for the playoffs (barring catastrophic injuries)

They could also be a team that comes on late as Harvey rounds into shape and Thor and possibly Matz come up and join the big club during the season.

to SF for minor league pitching

Ross to the Cubs 2 for 5

Peavy stays in SF 2 for 24

underestimating how far good pitching can take you. There's been plenty of WS winners over the last few years with lame lineups and holes all over the place. I look at somebody like Matz, who is developing a reputation as being a big game pitcher(carried a no hitter in the playoffs) and he reminds me of deGrom and Harvey. The lights and adrenaline just hit some players differently when they arrive.

And its so funny that people act like these guys have to carry 8 scrubs. We have 4 former all-stars in our lineup and none of them are our best hitter(Duda) or our two young hitters expected to do extremely well at their positions offensively this year(TDA + Flores).

Bat .290 and hit 15 homeruns and Ill be thrilled. We don't need him to be that 30 homerun monster anymore. The lineup is no longer Wright and a bunch of scrubs. I see production coming from every hitter in our lineup.

In comment 12043669 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

Bat .290 and hit 15 homeruns and Ill be thrilled. We don't need him to be that 30 homerun monster anymore. The lineup is no longer Wright and a bunch of scrubs. I see production coming from every hitter in our lineup.

Exactly. We do need Duda to still be THE DUDE, however!

we need Duda to be Duda but I think he will. Steamer and all these stat machines that have never watched a Mets baseball game see his season as an outlier but we all know that's not what happened. He finally got a chance and changed his approach at the plate. He finally started swinging and putting it all together. I think Duda actually has a BETTER season next year with the porch moved in a full fresh season knowing he's the starter heading in.

starts getting national recognition next year as one of baseballs best bats. 35 homeruns.

from his just posted column ...

Quote:

The new Padres GM did for San Diego what the old Padres GM (Sandy Alderson) has refused to do for the Mets � use a deep farm system to upgrade the offense and elevate the excitement around what had been a dormant franchise. We will see which executive played his prospect cards best. It is not often the champion of

Link - ( New Window )

Whats' going on there?

hasn't been cleared to work in the US

I haven't really been following it that closely.

In comment 12043682 sphinx said:

Quote:

from his just posted column ... Quote: The new Padres GM did for San Diego what the old Padres GM (Sandy Alderson) has refused to do for the Mets � use a deep farm system to upgrade the offense and elevate the excitement around what had been a dormant franchise. We will see which executive played his prospect cards best. It is not often the champion of Link - ( New Window )

We tried that approach in the early 2000s. Sure was EXCITING getting Robbie Alomar, Mo Vaughn, and Jeromy Burntitz. Sure made things sizzle when we were down to the wire with Juan Gonzalez.

Who is seriously playing CF for the Padres? Im confused. Myers?? Speaking of Myers, he was having a horrible season offensively long before he got hurt last year. Can Kemp stay healthy? I heard very recently on this board he can only play DH and not even corner outfield he is so bad. Their infield is weak. Their new all-star catcher doesn't look to be any better then TDA who bats 7th in our lineup. Their rotation is ok I guess. Nothing to blow your skirt up.

In comment 12043691 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

I haven't really been following it that closely.

That's up in the air timeline wise. It's expected to happen though, just a matter of when. MLB has cleared him, the justice department (or whatever the US department that does that) has not.

is playing CF. Some speculation Myers will head to Texas for Profar. I love the return TB got for Myers. Souza and Burch Smith + Ott? I'm still not clear how they got so much in that deal but good for them. Rene Rivera is solid as well.

In comment 12043695 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

is playing CF. Some speculation Myers will head to Texas for Profar. I love the return TB got for Myers. Souza and Burch Smith + Ott? I'm still not clear how they got so much in that deal but good for them. Rene Rivera is solid as well.

Well that would make more sense then I guess. Thanks. Guess we'll see.

Smith was viewed as one of the most intriguing minor league pitchers in 2013, got hurt but I really, really like him and Souza could be a star.

If they can't find a middle ground with Colorado on Tulo (doesn't seem like they will) I wish they'd just go all in on Moncada. It makes too much sense.

I'd hate to have been dead on all the way back in like September when I said the Mets would sign Cuddyer, bill that as their "big move" and do just about nothing else.. it's unfortunately starting to look like that's exactly what's going to happen. Oh, Mets...

sucked in his MLB debut but still K'ed 46 in 36.1 innings. Love the TB deal for them.

In comment 12042614 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

of the writers just told me the Rockies want Syndergaard and at least 3 of Matz, Herrera, Nimmo and Conforto + Gee or Niese. Jesus lol

that's excessive id do thor,Gee, 1 of the other prospects listed and a lower level not top 10 but id want them picking up at least 25mil over the contract

In comment 12042652 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Flores, Nimmo, Cecchini + Gee or Niese for Tulo, Rex Brothers, Ramiel Tapia and cash. Do it up.

done

In comment 12043693 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

In comment 12043682 sphinx said: Quote: from his just posted column ... Quote: The new Padres GM did for San Diego what the old Padres GM (Sandy Alderson) has refused to do for the Mets � use a deep farm system to upgrade the offense and elevate the excitement around what had been a dormant franchise. We will see which executive played his prospect cards best. It is not often the champion of Link - ( New Window ) We tried that approach in the early 2000s. Sure was EXCITING getting Robbie Alomar, Mo Vaughn, and Jeromy Burntitz. Sure made things sizzle when we were down to the wire with Juan Gonzalez. Who is seriously playing CF for the Padres? Im confused. Myers?? Speaking of Myers, he was having a horrible season offensively long before he got hurt last year. Can Kemp stay healthy? I heard very recently on this board he can only play DH and not even corner outfield he is so bad. Their infield is weak. Their new all-star catcher doesn't look to be any better then TDA who bats 7th in our lineup. Their rotation is ok I guess. Nothing to blow your skirt up.

Mets traded Kevin Appier for Mo Vaughn, Burnitz was acquired for sa bag of balls, and Alomar was acquired for prospects, none of whom worked out.

those three are not examples of using the farm system to better the team IMO.

Johan Santana is, and I think that worked out ok.

Not saying I'd unload the farm - for anyone right now, but your examples aren't great.

not trying to get into one of my famous fights with Zgiants but the Alomar trade specifically I would make 100/100 times. Dude was MVP caliber good the year prior, whatever the hell happened I have no idea but that's a trade you have to make EVERY time. I remember Francesa said it was like the Knicks adding Kobe Bryant lol

In comment 12043563 Deej said:

Quote:

is to make it a 3 team trade where some of the assets going to COL for Tulo come from a 3rd team that gets Murphy. Tulo at SS and Flores/Herrera at 2B.

maybe SF

trade one I'd make 100 times out of 100.

Both (Santana and Alomar) just so happen to have been trades where the Mets gave up prospects that didn't work out (for the acquiring team). Carlos Gomez might have proven to be even more valuable than Santana, but unfortunately for MIN he was a late bloomer. Even Humbers perfect game came 3 clubs later.

is about to fill their 3b spot so they have no room for Murphy

officially a Giant so Murphy won't be a Giant in 2015

..

Coming off one of his best years in 2001, he just lost it.

He also retired at age 36 with 2700+ hits. He batted .260 each of his last 3 years. Surprising he didn't hang around to reach 3000 hits.

In comment 12043740 CGiants07 said:

Quote:

..

I don't think Murphy has as much trade value as his numbers might suggest because most teams don't view him as a legit 2B. I think Sandy waits until the trade deadline to move him--when some team is desperate and willing to overpay.

If Mets don't trade Murph at the deadline, then things get interesting because he will likely be a type A free agent as a 2B, but most teams would be looking to sign him as 3B. Do you risk offering him arbitration since he might accept? Would the draft picks be worth more than prospects you might get for him in a trade? Sandy is the master but this is a tricky situation.

In comment 12043745 oipolloi said:

Quote:

In comment 12043740 CGiants07 said: Quote: .. I don't think Murphy has as much trade value as his numbers might suggest because most teams don't view him as a legit 2B. I think Sandy waits until the trade deadline to move him--when some team is desperate and willing to overpay. If Mets don't trade Murph at the deadline, then things get interesting because he will likely be a type A free agent as a 2B, but most teams would be looking to sign him as 3B. Do you risk offering him arbitration since he might accept? Would the draft picks be worth more than prospects you might get for him in a trade? Sandy is the master but this is a tricky situation.

Most teams WOULD offer Murphy the QO with a "normal" season. The Mets and their finances who knows?

tend to lump Alomar and Baerga together but my memory of Carlos Baerga as a player is greater than he actually was according to the numbers.

In comment 12043716 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

not trying to get into one of my famous fights with Zgiants but the Alomar trade specifically I would make 100/100 times. Dude was MVP caliber good the year prior, whatever the hell happened I have no idea but that's a trade you have to make EVERY time. I remember Francesa said it was like the Knicks adding Kobe Bryant lol

Why would you be trying to get in a fight with me? Because I don't think the Padres are better than the Mets? Kind of weird you would call me out.

Anyways. I loved the Alomar trade as well. My point was not that we traded away prospects but that we tried to remake a roster the quick easy way all at once by making trades and taking on huge salaries and it absolutely did not work out(cough cough Padres).

I mentioned you because you originally brought up Alomar, it wasn't some knock lol

methodical rebuild(although painstaking) was the way to go and what this team desperately needed for decades. All the pieces are just about here. I want to see this play out. I think its extremely rare to see something like this happen in modern baseball where a team can plan 4-5 years out drafting only high school and trading every chip for prospects to line up all at around the same time. Most teams wouldn't have the patience. And maybe we shouldn't have either. But its over now. We did it. Now lets see how it works out.

The padres fans are surely in a fever right now and I am sure they are all excited. But will they have a better team then the Mets? Will it be sustainable for years as it appears the Mets have been built? I doubt it. We'll see though.

In comment 12043784 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

I mentioned you because you originally brought up Alomar, it wasn't some knock lol

Oh I thought you said you were trying to avoid getting in a fight with me over it. All good.

the Mets shouldn't or can't buy their way to a championship, but they could/should explore adding a superstar for prospects.

Whether that is Tulo or not I don't know, but they have a good nucleus need a nudge to get into contention.

In comment 12043727 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

officially a Giant so Murphy won't be a Giant in 2015

McGehee sucks, and that is not a term I throw around lightly. He's like the Ruben Tejada of the hot corner.

6.6 WAR the year before we added him. 18.9 the previous 3 good for the 9th best player in baseball over the previous 3. What happened? Who knows? but at the time it looked great and there was nothing to suggest this would happen.

In comment 12043797 Deej said:

Quote:

In comment 12043727 DanMetroMan said: Quote: officially a Giant so Murphy won't be a Giant in 2015 McGehee sucks, and that is not a term I throw around lightly. He's like the Ruben Tejada of the hot corner.

Whether he sucks or not he's clearly their starting 3b. Their assistant GM confirmed this.

I think something along the lines of Syndergaard, Nimmo or Plawecki, and Gee or Neise is more than fair if we are taking on that salary.

I just think its outrageous what some of the teams are asking for and Im not up for gutting our system that we've worked so hard for.

I also don't think we absolutely NEED Tulo to get to where we want to be. Im excited for this year with or without him. He'd be nice at the right price, but Id be disgusted if we traded away multiple aces and this guy gets injured the second week of the season. It would be back to the Kazmir nightmare/Omar type stuff all over agin.

In comment 12043798 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

6.6 WAR the year before we added him. 18.9 the previous 3 good for the 9th best player in baseball over the previous 3. What happened? Who knows? but at the time it looked great and there was nothing to suggest this would happen.

PED's? He says it was "Chemistry" though he was using it in a different way.

In comment 12043798 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

6.6 WAR the year before we added him. 18.9 the previous 3 good for the 9th best player in baseball over the previous 3. What happened? Who knows? but at the time it looked great and there was nothing to suggest this would happen.

I will never understand it. I was so excited to have acquired him. Probably one of the biggest letdowns ever as a Met fan.

he had Alfonzo batting in front of him, and Piazza batting behind him. can't ask for better protection than that. He was even a letdown in the field? I was shocked. I still am.

give up less than that for Tulo, if Thor is in the deal, I wouldn't include another top 10 prospect unless it's Plawecki. I'd include Thor, Gee, Murphy who they could flip if they have no use for, and Plawecki, but that's where I draw the line.

Tulo is too much of a risk to abandon the future for, but I'd leverage it.

And obviously Beltran probably the best signing the Mets ever made.

Reality is that there's no 1 way to win, but it all starts with homegrowing a few superstars. Then from there supporting them with some wise acquisitions. It would be a shame to waste the cheap part of all the pitchers' careers with average rosters everywhere else.

In comment 12043810 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

give up less than that for Tulo, if Thor is in the deal, I wouldn't include another top 10 prospect unless it's Plawecki. I'd include Thor, Gee, Murphy who they could flip if they have no use for, and Plawecki, but that's where I draw the line. Tulo is too much of a risk to abandon the future for, but I'd leverage it.

Yeah I agree.

were temporary bandaids that had a shelf life of about 1-3 years. Thats fine if you have an older team ready to go for it but I don't think we are in that position yet. A good portion of our team just experienced its first season in the majors. Some of the stars of this window are still in AAA. And honestly Cuddyer could just as easily be this years "Loduca" if we snuck into the playoffs.

released. I'd add him.

It's not that well written (Yelich was on the Marlins last year?), but I think this serves as a good articulation of what many fans feel right now as the busier period of the offseason has concluded with tons of movement and other teams aggressively improving. Hopefully they have something up their sleeve with the Mariners or Rockies that comes to fruition in January.

Quote:

Look at it this way: We finished 19 games behind Washington, so it�s pretty unrealistic that we will make up this difference. Miami finished only 2 games behind us last year, but has added Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Dan Haren, Mat Latos and Michael Morse. Our lineup is, at best, average. Our overall team defense is also probably average. Lagares is a star, but Duda, Murphy, Flores and TDA are all probably below average defensively. But, people say, �Look at our pitching!� OK, let�s look at it. Right now, I don�t believe our starting rotation from top to bottom is better than Miami�s. Harvey and deGrom are great, but even highly touted Zack Wheeler has not put up anything but average statistics in his 2 MLB seasons. Gee, Colon and Niese are all just average pitchers. Our bullpen is OK, not great. It�s still unclear who our closer will be.

Why This Offseason Has Been Incredibly Disappointing - ( New Window )

Thanks, and interesting read. Yes, the fact that Washington looks like a juggernaut is a big problem for us. They have the best rotation in baseball and maybe 5 or more 3 fWAR hitters. And we didnt get a whole lot better this offseason, except as always I'll say: First, we're hopefully getting back two healthy stars in Harvey and Wright who collectively gave us 12 fWAR in 2013 and 1.9 fWAR in 2014.

Second, the 2014 gulf between the Mets and Marlins was a lot bigger than two wins. We were +40 runs over them. The Mets were insanely unlucky to be +11 and only win 79 games. Here are the teams that won 75-81 games (ie .500 or just under), and their run differential:

Mets: 79 wins, +11
Atlanta: 79 wins, -24
Miami: 77 wins, -29
Padres: 77 wins, -42
Tampa: 77 wins, -13
Cincy: 76 wins, -17

One of these things is not like the other. The Mets were the only net + team with a losing record; the closest teams to use were both +16, and much more successful: Cards won 90 and the Indians won 85. So I dont accept that our base is 79 wins and we need to improve from there. With that run differential, we should have been at ~83 wins. 88 games made the NL wild card last season.

Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS � 47m 47 minutes ago
pirates pull surprise, winning bidding for ss jung-ho kang. they will now try to negotiate deal.
Link - ( New Window )

and that's why I'd predict them around 85 wins, even as someone who's disappointed with their inactivity. Harvey's attitude alone could be a huge energizing force for change.

I just think this organization has had such bad karma and fan relations over these past few years, it's going to continue to be an uphill climb back to respectability. With all the positive stats from last year this team wasn't just a few role players away from contending. 4 games under .500 was basically their high water mark on the season after May, so as unlucky as they might have been the record at the end of the season wasn't an aberration. What they need(ed) are more guys like Lagares and Duda who can go out there and contribute to wins every single day - whether it's through offense or defense. Wright healthy could certainly be a major force, as could Granderson and Cuddyer, but it would have been a lot nicer to add 1 or 2 healthier/more in their prime guys to the mix.

85 wins based on this roster and not seeing Wright, Harvey, and Parnell is pretty reasonable. Agree on the karma, sometimes it works in reverse -- when things have been really bad for a while, a modicum of success can really invigorate the fans and players.

Adam Rubin @AdamRubinESPN � 14m 14 minutes ago
Wilpons' Madoff settlement down to $75.6M

Link - ( New Window )

In two years we can maybe almost kinda operate like a major league franchise.

Mets/Colorado NEED to make this trade..makes too much sense.

ready? lol

Noah
Flores
Montero
Pwalecki
Gee

For

Tulo
$35M

Tough to give all that up but do you really say no to that? I don't think I would.

get 3/5ths of a rotation, a borderline SS and a top catching prospect for their awesome but injury prone and highly paid SS and some cash?

I wouldn't make that trade. I'd roll the dice with Flores and if he proves over half a season he's not up to the job revisit the trade at the deadline.

do it

I probably would too.

the only real major league contributor it takes from the Mets is Flores and he's replaced by Tulo.

Plawecki and Thor are expected to start in the minors and Montero is in limbo land like Mejia was.

I'd maybe try and get a top prospect of the Rockies back too.

instant contenders or set themselves back if Tulo is injured. Some times you have to roll the dice

the summer to see if Tulo is healthy and what I have in Thor & Flores. The
Rockies will still take that package in July

id try to exchange Montero for a different sp prospect but if pressed I would do that

In comment 12049948 Headhunter said:

Quote:

the summer to see if Tulo is healthy and what I have in Thor & Flores. The Rockies will still take that package in July

id wait at least until he was doing baseball activities for a few weeks so like spring training time frame

on this. Make sure you fully know what you're getting and giving up

And he's probably getting back 2 of the big 3 pitchers (JDG/Wheeler/Thor).

If the above trade is offered, I'd do it and not look back. 6/85M for a potential MVP candidate? Even with all of the recent injuries, he's had 5 WAR in five of the last 6 years. He over delivers that contract with 2 healthy years out of the 6, and whenever healthy that team is 100% going to the playoffs with a chance to bring back a championship. And on the downside, when not healthy they're exactly where they are now, just with less prospect depth. You have to give to get and as far as I can tell there's only 1 blue chipper on each side of that deal - Tulo & Thor.

For the record, I think you could get TT cheaper than that from the prospect POV, but I doubt you could get COL to throw in that much $. Take out Montero and the $ and I think you're in the ballpark.

(if the dr.'s believe his injuries are chronic that obviously changes everything)

IF. IF he's recovered from hip surgery and IF his hip isn't recurring.

That's a lot for a "?"

In comment 12050016 feelflows said:

Quote:

IF. IF he's recovered from hip surgery and IF his hip isn't recurring. That's a lot for a "?"

Correct - but their doctors will be able to review his medical records and make an expert evaluation as to whether or not this is an isolated thing that got fixed or an ongoing thing that will need to be managed. If he's truly damaged you obviously can't do the deal but if the Dr.'s believe he's healthy I'd go for it. And hopefully it won't be the same Dr. that told Reyes to run differently.

I don't think doctors are able to analyze that. With players like him, when one thing heals, another thing goes wrong.

and it's fucking ridiculous that the New York Mets are being talked about as having to take money in a trade but giving up more prospects. Drop 2 of the prospects and DONT get $35 million.

Noah
1 of the 3 prospects
Gee

Even better would be Noah, Murphy, Gee, with Murphy being spun off to a 3rd team for prospects.

don't want to give up Thor to get Tulo. The whole thing just scares the shit out of me and the Mets don't have the greatest track record with these signings. I understand that you have to take risks (and I agree) but this is a BIG risk. The risk is usually in the prospects you have to give up for proven talent...the risk SHOULDN'T be on hoping that an ALREADY injured player will be injury free. That's a bad bet.

An injury prone 30 year old with hip problems...yeesh...hip problems don't tend to get better with age. I dunno. I'd rather roll the dice on Thor being another ACE.

Plus, take away the COL offensive numbers and he's not such a special offensive player. Still really good but not "COL numbers" good. Eh, I just don't have a good feeling about Tulo.

Side note...are we bidding against ourselves in these talks? I haven't heard any other teams involved.

Nobody else is known to be serious. But its not bidding. More negotiations.

...about Tulo.

I'm not sure who they would even give up, though. Their farm is already kind of weak as it is and most of their best prospects are still in A ball or AA. They don't really have much of anything that is close to MLB ready.

I'd guess Colorado would want Betances and Gregorius as the starting point for any package. Then likely add in at least 2 of their best prospects or maybe even Eovaldi. I don't think the Yanks make Betances available at all and that ends that.

for Tulo and $20 m back. If that isn't enough, then we should stand pat.

In comment 12050577 Ira said:

Quote:

for Tulo and $20 m back. If that isn't enough, then we should stand pat.

OF COURSE that wouldn't be enough. Colorado isn't moving Tulo & cash for 1 prospect.

In comment 12049862 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

get 3/5ths of a rotation, a borderline SS and a top catching prospect for their awesome but injury prone and highly paid SS and some cash? I wouldn't make that trade. I'd roll the dice with Flores and if he proves over half a season he's not up to the job revisit the trade at the deadline.

No. You do that deal in a heartbeat

but put me in the group that wants to wait until you have a better idea of Tulo's health. This would be such a make or break move for us that id like to at least know the guy is doing "Baseball activities" before we traded away a couple top 50 prospects and Montero.

Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN 18m18 minutes ago
With at least 42 HOF ballots public (~7.4% of total cast), Pedro Martinez still unanimous. Mike Piazza has slipped to 85.7%, but still > 75%

Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN 2m2 minutes ago
Competing counter -- Baseball Think Factory -- has Pedro Martinez left off 1 of 51 public ballots and Mike Piazza at 78.4 percent.

is going to get hosed again.

The writers obviously are convinced his numbers were enhanced, even if they don't have evidence.

No doubt this is also a popularity contest. The baseball writers never cared for Piazza, probably because he came across as someone who was gracious with them, also was comfortable in his own skin. He didn't bow at their altar. Now tehy are making an example of him, imo.

Too bad. As a Mets fan, and trying not to be biased, it makes zero sense to omit Piazza, and his historic offensive numbers by a catcher.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

The 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

The 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

Updated 5:25 ~ 51 Full Ballots ~ (8.9% of vote ~ based on last year) ~ As usual�BBWAA ballot digging is welcome!

98.0 - P. Martinez
98.0 - R. Johnson
88.2 - Smoltz
84.3 - Biggio
78.4 - Piazza
������������
70.6 - Bagwell
68.6 - Raines
56.9 - Schilling
43.1 - Mussina
39.2 - Bonds
37.3 - Clemens
25.5 - E. Martinez
25.5 - Trammell
17.6 - McGriff
15.7 - Lee Smith
13.7 - Kent
9.8 - McGwire
9.8 - Sheffield
7.8 - L. Walker
������������-
3.9 - Sosa
2.0 - Garciaparra
2.0 - Pete Rose (McWrite-In)
Link - ( New Window )

are writers like Sean McAdam who say they omitted Piazza last year because of the PED rumors, but then voted for New Englander Jeff Bagwell (who has as much PED rumors as Piazza or close to it)

Be consistent, have a basis for your vote. Just don't make it random or make a statement.

Ah, crap, why did I even get started, these people are a f-ing joke.

I even tweeted McAdam last year and he said he would vote for Piazza next year (this year). WTF? I asked if it was Ortiz if he'd vote for him - no reply.

In comment 12050353 PhiPsi125 said:

Quote:

don't want to give up Thor to get Tulo. The whole thing just scares the shit out of me and the Mets don't have the greatest track record with these signings. I understand that you have to take risks (and I agree) but this is a BIG risk. The risk is usually in the prospects you have to give up for proven talent...the risk SHOULDN'T be on hoping that an ALREADY injured player will be injury free. That's a bad bet. An injury prone 30 year old with hip problems...yeesh...hip problems don't tend to get better with age. I dunno. I'd rather roll the dice on Thor being another ACE. Plus, take away the COL offensive numbers and he's not such a special offensive player. Still really good but not "COL numbers" good. Eh, I just don't have a good feeling about Tulo. Side note...are we bidding against ourselves in these talks? I haven't heard any other teams involved.

Good post.

Corrone apparently talked too, Syndergaard, Matz, Gee, and Lagares would be fair value for Tulo with 5 million per coming back.

Lol. Nope. Kicks rocks Rox!

In comment 12051442 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

Corrone apparently talked too, Syndergaard, Matz, Gee, and Lagares would be fair value for Tulo with 5 million per coming back. Lol. Nope. Kicks rocks Rox!

Well, I really hate that trade. Funny thing with these experts is they have no idea whether Tulo is 100% healthy or a shell of his former self, or something in between. My real problem with trading for Tulo is that I assume the Rockies know his status way better than we do, and are only trading him because they're scared re his health.

Trying to think of a trade where a team knowingly gave up a huge haul for a damaged goods superstar. Anyone have an example?

Plawecki, Gee and Flores

Do it up

Id stay away from Tulo and Profar until Spring training. In either trade Id deal Syndergaard if they prove healthy but thats the meat of the deal. All these Syndergaard, Matz, Nimmo, Herrera, Conforto, Lagares deals are a joke.

In other news, Flores is absolutely making an abomination out of the winter leagues. This is current though this past Friday.
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 12051474 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Plawecki, Gee and Flores Do it up

Yeah I'd dot that.

Fangraphs breaks down the Mets Prospects
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 12051442 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

Corrone apparently talked too, Syndergaard, Matz, Gee, and Lagares would be fair value for Tulo with 5 million per coming back. Lol. Nope. Kicks rocks Rox!

Awful deal sorry. Replace Matz with Montero and Lagares with Flores and I'd do it.

absolutely include Flores as the "solid young regular" since we have Murphy, Herrera and Reynolds. Can't give up Lagares (unless of course he was the headliner which we know he wouldn't be).

Or maybe if they really want a CF they can have MDD instead of Flores. I think MDD might still be a useful player.

guy is a waste of time. He says:

Quote:

According to the above sources, because of the significant risk associated with Tulowitzki�s health and contract, Colorado should expect to cover at least $5 million a year on his remaining contract, otherwise no team will give up a meaningful prospect to get him. This would bring his annual salary down to around $13-15 million, which is what the Padres are now paying Matt Kemp.

Cerrone is reporting that Tulo at his present salary is WORTHLESS. That's what "meaningful prospect" means in that sentence. I dont know that I agree (in fact, I disagree), but that is his starting position and the purported consensus of these experts.

But if Cerrone is right, he's essentially saying the Mets should take Tulo off the Rockies hands for free and at the same time sell Colorado the rights to Thor, Matz, Lagares, and Gee for a collective $30 million. Is he fucking nuts? Total investment in Jung-Ho Kang will be around 30 million. Rusney Castillo got $72 million. The notion that a top 20 overall prospect, a top 50 overall prospect (LHP), a 3-4 fWAR CF who is 4 years from free agency, and Gee (some positive value) are worth only a $30 million transfer payment is totally fucking ignorant.

question his "experts". They are acting like Lagares is a throw in and the meat is Syndergaard AND Matz. Get out of here.

#Mets prospect L.J. Mazzilli receives 50-game suspension for second positive test for a drug of abuse, MLB announces.

if the Mets can do this deal and not give up any players who were expected to fill a role THIS (other than those replaced by the trade) then it's worth listening to.

As soon as you start mentioning Lagares, Wheeler, TdA (though I've only rarely seen his name mentioned) it's a non-starter.

The Mets become better at SS, but worse too many other places.

Which is why Thor, Flores (replaced by Tulo), Gee (expendable) and Plawecki (blocked by TdA) makes sense from a Mets fan perspective.

Plus CO gets some good players.

The Mets even arguably have more risk given the salary due Tulo and the injury status - which is why there should be cash coming back.

At the end of the day though, if Sandy pulls that trade off it's essentially Dickey, Flores and Gee for Tulo - Sandy would be a maestro.

In comment 12051764 feelflows said:

Quote:

#Mets prospect L.J. Mazzilli receives 50-game suspension for second positive test for a drug of abuse, MLB announces.

I take it that means a recreational drug and not a PED?

ill a role THIS season

Unearthed some new names and the system is deep,deep with legit prospects

I look forward to the read later today

In comment 12051787 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

ill a role THIS season

I disagree with this attitude. What makes 2015 so important? If anything I'd argue that our window probably opens up more in 2016 -- the pitchers will be a bit older, Harvey wont be as limited, and hopefully the wheels come off the bus a bit for the Nats. As of now, the Nats have a better rotation than us and their lineup has five guys with Steamer projected fWAR of 3+ compared to our one (Wright).

In comment 12051793 Headhunter said:

Quote:

Unearthed some new names and the system is deep,deep with legit prospects

Fangraphs rates Thor a 65 Future Value player vs. 60 for Addison Russell. Get it done Sandy.

I'm sure to some degree the Mets like all their guys, that's why they got picked in the first place, but one would have to think there are a few with value around the league that they wouldn't mind moving as much. But I guess we might have said that about JdG last year, so maybe there's something to the fact that all of their guys are getting underrated just because they aren't Harvey/Thor/Wheeler? Regardless, would be nice to see the Coupons spend some money so we can stop reading shit like this once and for all:

Quote:

Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron If you focus primarily on the young pitching, the Mets future is very bright. If you assume that a team in the country�s largest market can�t possibly continue to spend this little on their Major League payroll, then the future might be even brighter, as distance from the Madoff mess can only help. There are reasons for optimism in Queens. But young pitching is a shaky foundation around which to build, and the Wilpons aren�t acting like they own a team in New York just yet. The arrow is pointed upwards, but 2015 might be another year of climbing rather than enjoying the view from the top. And if the team keeps running payrolls under $100 million, then they better hope all these young arms stay healthy or things could get rough again in a hurry.

NYM Prospect Overview - ( New Window )

In comment 12051786 Deej said:

Quote:

In comment 12051764 feelflows said: Quote: #Mets prospect L.J. Mazzilli receives 50-game suspension for second positive test for a drug of abuse, MLB announces. I take it that means a recreational drug and not a PED?

Seeking counseling so sounds like something worse than Pot. Real moron considering his advanced age (24)

to take that write up that seriously claiming Blake Taylor "hits 95". Jeff P said mid-high 80's as did Rubin. Jeff P even noted his velocity was down this season.

In comment 12051887 Deej said:

Quote:

In comment 12051787 pjcas18 said: Quote: ill a role THIS season I disagree with this attitude. What makes 2015 so important? If anything I'd argue that our window probably opens up more in 2016 -- the pitchers will be a bit older, Harvey wont be as limited, and hopefully the wheels come off the bus a bit for the Nats. As of now, the Nats have a better rotation than us and their lineup has five guys with Steamer projected fWAR of 3+ compared to our one (Wright).

This is year 5 of a my self-imposed 5 year plan, I don't think another 75 win season is acceptable.

That doesn't mean sacrifice the future for the present, but it does mean IMO the team is close enough to roll the dice a little. But like I said I don't see the point in weakening the team in multiple spots to improve in one.

After joining the Mets organization in mid-June, Taylor made three appearances in the Gulf Coast League. He allowed two runs, neither earned, on one hit, seven walks and a hit batter while striking out 10 in 10 2/3 innings. He since has moved to the Appalachian League. In seven starts with Kingsport, the 6-foot-3, 220-pound Taylor is 2-1 with a 5.16 ERA. He has allowed 39 hits and 22 walks in 29 2/3 innings.

Taylor�s fastball sits at 86-90 mph. He also possesses a changeup and curveball.

�I�m still getting better. I still have a lot more to learn with command and all that stuff,� Taylor said. �But I�ve been progressing this year and throwing my changeup for a strike more than I have been normally. It�s been a very, very educational year for me just to learn. This is my first full season.�

Excellent article. Didn't know a lot of what was in there. Pretty deep system!

Going to fun following the big club and tracking these guys in the Minors. Good time to be a Met fan IMO

@kileymcd: One scout told me to put him over Syndergaard, so I'm 2nd at best RT @jb82mets You're officially the high guy on Plawecki

In comment 12052044 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

After joining the Mets organization in mid-June, Taylor made three appearances in the Gulf Coast League. He allowed two runs, neither earned, on one hit, seven walks and a hit batter while striking out 10 in 10 2/3 innings. He since has moved to the Appalachian League. In seven starts with Kingsport, the 6-foot-3, 220-pound Taylor is 2-1 with a 5.16 ERA. He has allowed 39 hits and 22 walks in 29 2/3 innings. Taylor�s fastball sits at 86-90 mph. He also possesses a changeup and curveball. �I�m still getting better. I still have a lot more to learn with command and all that stuff,� Taylor said. �But I�ve been progressing this year and throwing my changeup for a strike more than I have been normally. It�s been a very, very educational year for me just to learn. This is my first full season.�

I noticed this too. He also says Leathersich is a RH pitcher and Matz should start in AA when he really will probably start in AAA. There's definitely some errors.

In regards to Taylor it sounds like its off an old scouting report. His velocity was down all of 2014.

get to Leathersich & Blake Taylor who are maybe in the 60 range of prospects. If you want to discredit his work because of that, be my guest. It was to me the best write up I've read yet on the system's prospects

We have more players than we can continue to protect.

In comment 12052145 Headhunter said:

Quote:

get to Leathersich & Blake Taylor who are maybe in the 60 range of prospects. If you want to discredit his work because of that, be my guest. It was to me the best write up I've read yet on the system's prospects

Yeah I'm not. It was a nice read.

all meaningful prospects owned by every team is worthless. It would be worthless if it was authored by Billy Beane. How many of these guys has he seen, and how many times has he seen these players?

Only way Rockies are adding an Of such as Legares is if one is coming back to the Mets. They kinda left that little detail out. Its probably the last. Position they need to add more to on their ball club.

In comment 12052288 Shecky said:

Quote:

Only way Rockies are adding an Of such as Legares is if one is coming back to the Mets. They kinda left that little detail out. Its probably the last. Position they need to add more to on their ball club.

Cerrone's mostly just an idiot. Alderson's not giving up more than Toronto gave up for Donaldson. That's how the market works to some degree. Toronto didn't even give up their 'Syndergaard', so depending on how you value Lowrie the packages being tossed around for COL in the media are varying levels of insane. If there's a hard line price anywhere close to what's being reported there would be a lot less than the 5-10% chance that even Rubin reported.

for Wilmer Flores Ive read yet.
Link - ( New Window )

9:47
Comment From Jeff
How would you grade the Mets front office? These past two offseasons have been bad.
9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Never did understand the Granderson move, but it�s hard to evaluate a front office without totally understanding the conditions in which they have to maneuver

Quote:
9:54
Comment From John
can you pontificate on why, given the posting fee and the contract, the mets refused to put out basically 17 mill on a 2 year deal for kang? thats paying him to be worth 1 WAR a season? is there really no chance he can do that?
9:55
Jeff Sullivan: The Mets already have a decent offensive shortstop who might not be a shortstop. That�s the best explanation I�ve got

Quote:
10:43
Comment From John
you wont grade the mets fo because you dont know what kind of environment they can manuever in? sandy and co are supposed to be geniuses. GMs of similar ilk have done more with considerably less; PLUS, sandy�s free agent acquisitions have been awful and not a single one of his draft picks have made the bigs. I think its safe to say he was HIGHLY overrated by the stats community
10:43
Jeff Sullivan: The stats community doesn�t know how to evaluate GMs
10:43
Jeff Sullivan: No one really knows how to evaluate GMs
10:44
Jeff Sullivan: It�s also pretty clear the Alderson front office is working with limited flexibility. Within that, mistakes have been made. I don�t understand Granderson and Cuddyer with those budgets, so, sure, let�s slot that front office at least one level below the level of genius

Quote:
10:46
Comment From KB
Is there a more boring team in MLB than the Milwaukee Brewers? No one in the farm that�s even a Top 50 prospect to be excited about. No payroll for splashy free agent moves. No �all or nothing� approach in the offseason ala Beane.

Quote:
11:01
Comment From Ermo
Did we see Jacob DeGrom�s ceiling last season or can he reach another level?
11:01
Jeff Sullivan: He already reached that levelI

I think it's hard to evaluate the FO without knowing the full constraints they're under, but that doesn't make it impossible to hope/expect more. If the team doesn't win 85 games next year and consistently play 5 games or so above .500 it will be a crime considering the young cost controlled talent they have.

Re: Wilmer, as many have said numerous times, in a vacuum him playing SS make sense. In context however it will be a disappointment. The team believes in him now, because they are unwilling to spend $/assets to do better, but hasn't for the last 2-3 years as they've openly not considered it until it was last resort. Hard to get people excited about an option that was publicly viewed as a "last resort".

Also, the other piece of context that's missed is the defensive side of things. Below is fangraphs team defense projections. Who knows how accurate these things are, but they project the Mets to be a bottom 6 defensive team that's gotten significantly worse since last year (when they were at best average). Not surprising since they are only above average at 2 spots.
Examining the Projected Team Defenses - ( New Window )

Joseph says:
December 23, 2014 at 3:36 pm
Who do you think is the better prospect�Franklin Barreto or Amed Rosario?

Come to think of it 2015 should be an exciting year for young Latin prospects with Rosario, Devers, Barreto plus others I�m definitely forgetting making full season debuts most probably.

Reply
Kiley McDaniel says:
December 23, 2014 at 11:32 pm
I�d probably take Rosario over all of them, but the gap isn�t enormous.


(Devers bat is more impressive than Rosario but SS vs. 3b is a big gap. Devers could be a special player however. He could be a top 25 prospect in baseball in the not so distant future.)

Kiley, your write-up on Puello didn�t mention the sporadic (at best) playing time he received in 2014 to the benefit of Quad A types like Brandon Allen and Anthony Seratelli. This has been a bit of a mystery amongst Mets prospect watchers; did any of the sources you talked to shed some light on that? Did Puello piss off Wally? Fall out of favor with the FO? Pour sugar in Paul Depodesta�s gas tank?


Quote:
Kiley McDaniel:
It wasn�t a bunch of glowing recommendations, more like a stern father of a kid that hasn�t met his potential, ending every sentence by throwing his hands up in the air and saying �anything could still happen, who knows?�

Do most of us agree that if we're not going for Tulo, the sensible thing is to see what Flores can do next season? I just don't see anyone else that might be available that's a big enough improvement over Flores to justify the assets that would be required.

In comment 12053617 Ira said:

Quote:

Do most of us agree that if we're not going for Tulo, the sensible thing is to see what Flores can do next season? I just don't see anyone else that might be available that's a big enough improvement over Flores to justify the assets that would be required.

The right deal I'd deal for Tulo but sounds like Colorado wants a TON for him so yeah I'm okay passing. I have major issues with this FO and Sherman actually touches on them below (linked) but paying "fair" value for Tulo isn't one of my issues.
Link - ( New Window )

Olney once claimed that Sandy wanted to trade David Wright and Jeff Wilpon signed Wright directly. I always wondered if the FO wanted to "blow it up" and weren't allowed to. That doesn't explain why they don't make more trades but it's something I've always been curious about.

I'd also add I think it's unconscionable to go with Tejada as the backup plan to Wilmer. Sorry but if you are "rolling the dice" on a maybe your backup plan can't be a proven turd unless you don't care about winning.

and I actually heard from someone recently that they were debating the possibility of trading Wright this past season (prior to the Shoulder injury taking him out of action it was discussed in the context of shopping him in the offseason, no active discussions).

Sherman's article is another in a string that have now accurately captured the dissatisfaction many have with the Alderson regime. Forgetting the $ limitations, they've turned over the roster at a snails pace and all of their 'hits' have come from cheap gambles that were unplanned successes - Byrd, Lagares, JdG, Mejia at closer (imagine last year if that didn't luckily work out). They seem to be solid at the draft/development, they can definitely maximize leverage when trading vets, and overall they are good at bringing in/judging talent. They have shown 0 ability to turn that talent into the assembly of a successful roster with the resources they do have.

In comment 12053617 Ira said:

Quote:

Do most of us agree that if we're not going for Tulo, the sensible thing is to see what Flores can do next season? I just don't see anyone else that might be available that's a big enough improvement over Flores to justify the assets that would be required.

Yep. Basically.

only because of Collins, but if I was assured Tejada would ONLY be a backup(Sandy might force this), I might actually like him in that role. He can play SS and 2B late in games and play against lefties once in a while.

I also don't view him as the backup PLAN to Flores. That's different. 25th man? Sure. But if Flores turns into a pumpkin or gets inured my next option would be Reynolds. My third option would be to give Tovar a shot as he's on the 40 man. My 4th option would be to bite the bullet and trade for a SS mid-season.

If ALL 4 of those options fail, THEN I would stick Tejada at SS. lol.

Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN 3h3 hours ago
Al Jackson, still a spring-training presence with the Mets, turns 79 today

In comment 12053943 sphinx said:

Quote:

Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN 3h3 hours ago Al Jackson, still a spring-training presence with the Mets, turns 79 today

Phil Regan (who many credit with much of the Mets pitching development is the pitching coach in St. Lucie) and is....77! full-time and all.

In comment 12053792 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

only because of Collins, but if I was assured Tejada would ONLY be a backup(Sandy might force this), I might actually like him in that role. He can play SS and 2B late in games and play against lefties once in a while. I also don't view him as the backup PLAN to Flores. That's different. 25th man? Sure. But if Flores turns into a pumpkin or gets inured my next option would be Reynolds. My third option would be to give Tovar a shot as he's on the 40 man. My 4th option would be to bite the bullet and trade for a SS mid-season. If ALL 4 of those options fail, THEN I would stick Tejada at SS. lol.

As of today the backup plan pretty clearly is Tejada. What you or I would do is a different story but Tejada is the other SS on the 40 man aka he's the backup SS.

is having Tejada around is risky. Mainly because Collins likes him for some weird reason.

So, it seems like he'd look for any chance to play Tejada and give him the starters job.

this is where fan frustration with Sandy is legit warranted - why even keep Tejada around. he's average at best defensively, and on a good year average offensively, but usually worse.

I don't get worked up about the upcoming seasons roster until midway through ST, so I won't worry about it now, but having Tejada on this team is a RISK and if he is on the team and Collins winds up giving Flores three or four starts (and if Flores doesn't excel) and then Tejada winds up as the starting SS most of the season I blame Sandy as much Collins.

In comment 12054015 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

is having Tejada around is risky. Mainly because Collins likes him for some weird reason. So, it seems like he'd look for any chance to play Tejada and give him the starters job. this is where fan frustration with Sandy is legit warranted - why even keep Tejada around. he's average at best defensively, and on a good year average offensively, but usually worse. I don't get worked up about the upcoming seasons roster until midway through ST, so I won't worry about it now, but having Tejada on this team is a RISK and if he is on the team and Collins winds up giving Flores three or four starts (and if Flores doesn't excel) and then Tejada winds up as the starting SS most of the season I blame Sandy as much Collins.

My guess is Collins likes him because he is "safe" aka you know what you are going to get. Remember, Collins was the Mets minor league field coordinator in 2010 which means he likely had some level of interaction with Tejada dating back almost 5 years now.

think we can all foresee a situation where Flores starts slow or boots a few early, Tejada drops in a few soft singles and suddenly it goes from Flores being the starting SS to a time share etc. Even the most optimistic have to admit with Collins fondness of Tejada this is a possibility.

Because going with Flores in all likelihood really means "going with Flores and Tejada"

If Tejada were to start like one out of every 8-10 games or something I wouldn't mind it but a timeshare would be a fucking nightmare because we all know who Collins is going to be partial to.

Development of minor league players, but they really have simply made two big trades and relied on Omar IFA signings to get to where they are today. Pawlecki looks like a good draft pick but really who else has Anderson drafted that invokes any type of confidence? I am still skeptical of nimmos bat speed and platoon splits especially if he has to play a corner, cechinni is a dud - which is what almost everyone said he was drafted, smith had a fairly depressing year last year albeit playing up a level, and contorfo didn't dominate like you would hope a college player would (and also had that weird delayed signing). Hell their best draft pick was probably sankowitz who for some reason they refused to sign even though we had the money. Literally none of those players instills any type of confidence in this regime moving forward.

.

Mets FO gets an INC for drafting as of today. Anyone giving them props or nailing them are being unfair. So far it's been slow going. On paper nobody from their first draft will have a major impact in 2015 but Nimmo, Mazzoni (maybe the most realistic to log significant time) and Leathersich probably have the best odds for 2015 so still "not much". 2012 draft could show Reynolds and Plawecki this year. There likely isn't a realistic "good" scenario where Nimmo or Plawecki log significant time for the Mets in 2015 barring someone blocking them are traded but who knows?

credit for the trades bringing in Wheeler, Syndergaard, TdA, etc.

but from a draft standpoint, his first draft was 2011. High school kids would be 21/22 years old by now and college kids 25/26.

so giving him final draft grades (as DMM pointed out) is premature. And that's just from his first draft. obviously subtract 1, 2, and 3 years for his other 3 drafts.

It's not so much the drafting of this FO. It's the remaking of the organization from the ground up that no one can do anything but praise. Literally every single step of the way, the organization sets the kids up for success in the major leagues. Surprisingly very few organizations do a good job of that. The amount of money spent in baseball is staggering, yet by far the greatest bang for your buck is the money spent on organizational organic growth.

You don't have to produce superstar after superstar. That mostly involves luck (Stanton, Trout compared to Harper as an example). Talent is such a small part of the recipe of the future success of ball players. There are guys in the GCL with absolutely filthy stuff that may never make it to AA ball - so it takes more than talent to succeed. I believe the Mets front office has done an amazing job of changing the culture down below, and now it's time to filter that up the ladder to the major league team.

As much credit as Minaya should get for finding the talent, the current regime deserves just as much if not more credit for developing that same talent. Legares is a more productive major leaguer than anyone expected. Same with Murphy. Same with Gee. Same with Duda. Same with Harvey and DeGrom. Tejada is the only example of a player on the roster who hasn't progressed under this current front office.

What happens if he has a first month or two like TdA last year? The same reason nobody's penciling TdA into the 4-5 spot despite his great 2nd half is the same reason why penciling Flores in is so troublesome - trusting young players stats in meaningless games is risky. Add in the doubts about his defense, which are echoed by almost every single quoted professional and it's a recipe for trouble.

The scary thing about this roster is that trusting TdA and Flores to hit are probably among the safer risks. The failure of this regime is that they've surrounded the inherently risky young players with even riskier veterans. Granderson, Wright, & Cuddyer account for more than 50% of the total payroll and not 1 of them posted a league average season last year. This is just a guess, but I doubt that's true of any other team and definitely not true of any playoff teams.

In comment 12054093 Shecky said:

Quote:

It's not so much the drafting of this FO. It's the remaking of the organization from the ground up that no one can do anything but praise. Literally every single step of the way, the organization sets the kids up for success in the major leagues. Surprisingly very few organizations do a good job of that. The amount of money spent in baseball is staggering, yet by far the greatest bang for your buck is the money spent on organizational organic growth. You don't have to produce superstar after superstar. That mostly involves luck (Stanton, Trout compared to Harper as an example). Talent is such a small part of the recipe of the future success of ball players. There are guys in the GCL with absolutely filthy stuff that may never make it to AA ball - so it takes more than talent to succeed. I believe the Mets front office has done an amazing job of changing the culture down below, and now it's time to filter that up the ladder to the major league team. As much credit as Minaya should get for finding the talent, the current regime deserves just as much if not more credit for developing that same talent. Legares is a more productive major leaguer than anyone expected. Same with Murphy. Same with Gee. Same with Duda. Same with Harvey and DeGrom. Tejada is the only example of a player on the roster who hasn't progressed under this current front office.

Excellent post.

and just a gut feeling really but I don't think Sandy is going to mess around with Collins this year. We saw the process kind of unfold over the course of last season and I think its gotten to the point that the front office is split and/or tired of Collins and will be more proactive this season. They tried to force Flores earlier in the year last year and by the end were flat out making Collins do it.

Judging what Sandy is already saying about Flores and outright laughing at Collins comments in public, I don't think Tejada is going to sniff a starting role this year barring an absolute emergency.

I agree if Flores were to sit on the bench as well as other options like Reynolds in AAA and Tovar on the 40 and none of these guys got chances assuming Flores failed, Sandy should share the blame but I don't think that's going to happen in 2015. I just don't.

In comment 12054104 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

What happens if he has a first month or two like TdA last year? The same reason nobody's penciling TdA into the 4-5 spot despite his great 2nd half is the same reason why penciling Flores in is so troublesome - trusting young players stats in meaningless games is risky. Add in the doubts about his defense, which are echoed by almost every single quoted professional and it's a recipe for trouble. The scary thing about this roster is that trusting TdA and Flores to hit are probably among the safer risks. The failure of this regime is that they've surrounded the inherently risky young players with even riskier veterans. Granderson, Wright, & Cuddyer account for more than 50% of the total payroll and not 1 of them posted a league average season last year. This is just a guess, but I doubt that's true of any other team and definitely not true of any playoff teams.

Good point but

1.) TDA and Flores are your 7th and 8th hitters so I don't believe you are "counting" on them to carry the team or anything. They also offer huge offensive potential, were huge prospects, and have already experienced "some" major league success in their first seasons. For a rebuilding team what else to you propose?

2.) Yes Cuddyer got hurt last year(although he came back clearly healthy as ever) and Wright are injury risks, but there are plenty of non-risky options like Murphy and Duda in the middle of the lineup as well.

this year they shouldn't be. When you're trying to win you try to put the best possible players at any given position and upgrade wherever possible. The time to evaluate projects has passed.

The rebuilding project was over the last 2-4 years but all of the talent accumulated during that time and everyone drafted was done with an arrival date of this season and the next. It's not complete yet. Plenty of the high end talent we acquired is still in AAA. The whole point is allow these kids opportunities to blossom. When they reach their primes, then you awuire the extra piece if you have a need. This team will compete this year of its young talent alone but this isn't the WS finished product yet. Not even close.

And affording opportunities to Flores and TDA is rolling with projects?? Really?

In comment 12054219 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

In comment 12054104 Eric on Li said: Quote: What happens if he has a first month or two like TdA last year? The same reason nobody's penciling TdA into the 4-5 spot despite his great 2nd half is the same reason why penciling Flores in is so troublesome - trusting young players stats in meaningless games is risky. Add in the doubts about his defense, which are echoed by almost every single quoted professional and it's a recipe for trouble. The scary thing about this roster is that trusting TdA and Flores to hit are probably among the safer risks. The failure of this regime is that they've surrounded the inherently risky young players with even riskier veterans. Granderson, Wright, & Cuddyer account for more than 50% of the total payroll and not 1 of them posted a league average season last year. This is just a guess, but I doubt that's true of any other team and definitely not true of any playoff teams. Good point but 1.) TDA and Flores are your 7th and 8th hitters so I don't believe you are "counting" on them to carry the team or anything. They also offer huge offensive potential, were huge prospects, and have already experienced "some" major league success in their first seasons. For a rebuilding team what else to you propose? 2.) Yes Cuddyer got hurt last year(although he came back clearly healthy as ever) and Wright are injury risks, but there are plenty of non-risky options like Murphy and Duda in the middle of the lineup as well.

it's a new year and I'm going to go out of my way to avoid "fighting" with you but Wilmer was never a "huge" prospect. BA had him 47th (his highest ranking ever) his first pro year.


Prospect Ratings by Baseball America:
Pre-2009: Rated #47 Prospect
Pre-2010: Rated #88 Prospect
Pre-2011: Rated #59 Prospect
Prospect Ratings by BaseballProspectus.com:
Pre-2009: Rated #54 Prospect
Pre-2010: Rated #84 Prospect
Pre-2011: Rated #98 Prospect
Pre-2014: Rated #71 Prospect

Really not looking for a back and forth on this where you say "well my idea of "huge" is X" but he's always been viewed as a good prospect without a position. He absolutely could end up an average or above regular, not arguing that point/ He's just never been viewed as a premium prospect by prospect types.

Sickels

6) Wilmer Flores, INF, Grade B: Borderline B-. Better hitter than he showed during time in New York. I still don�t know how you fit him in the lineup.

1. Noah Syndergaard (RHP) 22 years old (AAA/MLB) 88% of 34 votes
2. Dilson Herrera (2B) 21 years old (AAA/MLB) 56% of 39 votes
3. Brandon Nimmo (CF) 22 years old (AAA) 33% of 43 votes (Run-off vs. Matz 55% of 40 votes)
4. Steven Matz (LHP) 24 years old (AAA) 69% of 48 votes
5. Michael Conforto (LF) 22 years old (A+) 49% of 43 votes
6. Kevin Plawecki (C) 24 years old (AAA) 59% of 34 votes
7. Rafael Montero (RHP) 24 years old (AAA/MLB) 65% of 37 votes
8. Marcos Molina (RHP) 20 years old (A) 43% of 40 votes (Run-off with Rosario 55% of 40 votes)
9. Amed Rosario (SS) 19 years old (A) 75% of 40 votes
10. Jhoan Urena (3b) 20 years old (A) 42% of 38 votes
11. Gavin Cecchini (SS) 21 years old (A) 57% of 37 votes
12. Dominic Smith (1b) 20 years old (A) 75% of 28 votes
13. Matt Reynolds (SS/2b) 24 years old (AAA) 52% of 31 votes
14. Cory Mazzoni (RP/SP) 25 years old (AAA) 46% of 28 votes
15. Matthew Chou Bowman (SP/RP) 24 years old AAA 42% of 38 votes
16. Cesar Puello (23) AAA (OF) 24% of 33 votes, runoff with Fulmer 52% of 31 votes
17. Buca di Beppo (Becerra) 28% of 29 votes, runoff vs. Maz 57%
18. LJ Mazzilli (24) 28% of 32 votes, runoff with Meisner 52% of 31 votes
19. Casey Meisner (20) (A) 57% of 30 votes
20. Milton Ramos (19) (A) 21% of 28 votes, run-off with Ynoa 52% of 23 votes
21. Gabriel Ynoa (22) (AA) 64% of 22 votes
22. Champ Stuart (22) (A+) 36% of 25 votes
23. Michael Fulmer (22) (AA) 41% of 22 votes
24. Akeel Morris (22) (A+) 31% of 26 votes
25. Logan Verrett (25) (AAA) 27% of 22 votes, 47% of runoff with Whalen/Mateo
26. Jack Leathersich (25) (AAA) 24% of 17 votes, 57% of runoff with Whalen
27. Tyler Pill (24) (AAA) 40% of 20 votes
28. Rob Whalen (21) 48% of 21 votes
29. Dario Alvarez (26) 33% of 24 vores
30. Luis Mateo (26) 27% of 26 votes, 77% of runoff with Diaz
31. Robert Gsellman 30% of 23 votes
32. Miller Diaz 25% of 24 votes, runoff with Brosher/Sanchez 37%
33. Blake Taylor 22% of 18 votes, runoff with Brosher/Sanchez 38%
34. Ali Sanchez (C) 18 35% of 23 votes, runoff vs. Brosher 75%
35. Logan Taylor (RHP) 16% of 19 votes, runoff with Brosher/Boyd 44%
36. Jayce Boyd (1b) 35% of 17 votes
37. Hansel Robles 25% of 16 votes, runoff with Wieck + Brosher 67%
38. Kenny Hernandez 28% of 18 votes
39. Luis Guillorme (SS) 22% of 18 votes, runoff with Cruzado/Oswalt 38%
40. Victor Cruzado 18% of 17 votes, runoff with Oswalt 71%
41. Corey Oswalt 43% of 14 votes
42. Brad Wieck
43. Jeff McNeil 56% of 9 votes
44. Brandon Brosher 50% of 14 votes
45. Vicente Lupo 43% of 16 votes

In comment 12054308 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 12054219 ZGiants98 said: Quote: In comment 12054104 Eric on Li said: Quote: What happens if he has a first month or two like TdA last year? The same reason nobody's penciling TdA into the 4-5 spot despite his great 2nd half is the same reason why penciling Flores in is so troublesome - trusting young players stats in meaningless games is risky. Add in the doubts about his defense, which are echoed by almost every single quoted professional and it's a recipe for trouble. The scary thing about this roster is that trusting TdA and Flores to hit are probably among the safer risks. The failure of this regime is that they've surrounded the inherently risky young players with even riskier veterans. Granderson, Wright, & Cuddyer account for more than 50% of the total payroll and not 1 of them posted a league average season last year. This is just a guess, but I doubt that's true of any other team and definitely not true of any playoff teams. Good point but 1.) TDA and Flores are your 7th and 8th hitters so I don't believe you are "counting" on them to carry the team or anything. They also offer huge offensive potential, were huge prospects, and have already experienced "some" major league success in their first seasons. For a rebuilding team what else to you propose? 2.) Yes Cuddyer got hurt last year(although he came back clearly healthy as ever) and Wright are injury risks, but there are plenty of non-risky options like Murphy and Duda in the middle of the lineup as well. it's a new year and I'm going to go out of my way to avoid "fighting" with you but Wilmer was never a "huge" prospect. BA had him 47th (his highest ranking ever) his first pro year. Prospect Ratings by Baseball America: Pre-2009: Rated #47 Prospect Pre-2010: Rated #88 Prospect Pre-2011: Rated #59 Prospect Prospect Ratings by BaseballProspectus.com: Pre-2009: Rated #54 Prospect Pre-2010: Rated #84 Prospect Pre-2011: Rated #98 Prospect Pre-2014: Rated #71 Prospect Really not looking for a back and forth on this where you say "well my idea of "huge" is X" but he's always been viewed as a good prospect without a position. He absolutely could end up an average or above regular, not arguing that point/ He's just never been viewed as a premium prospect by prospect types. Sickels 6) Wilmer Flores, INF, Grade B: Borderline B-. Better hitter than he showed during time in New York. I still don�t know how you fit him in the lineup.

For somebody who never wants to fight with me you still go out of your way to attack my comments and stick your nose into conversations you were never even a part of. And lately, every post is... Not trying to start a fight with ZGiants BUT... Do me a favor... I don't give a crap about you placating me. Either disagree and make a point about it or STFU. Nobody cares if you trying to get into a fight with me or not. As for TDA and Flores(love how you conveniently leave out TDA) they were both top prospects. As you pointed out, Flores cracked top 100 lists numerous times and TDA was the unanimous number one rated catching prospect in baseball for about three years running. Thanks for chiming in and making a point about nothing. Always a pleasure.

left out TDA because he WAS a huge prospect MORON.

are a moron and actually attacked me on a personal level recently so you can go suck a dick you fucking moron. Since when can someone only comment on conversations they are involved in on a MESSAGE BOARD. Why not just email your friends back and forth if that's your hope? What a great site this would be if we could only comment to the original person who made the comment. BBI would be wonderful!

My point to Eric that TDA and Flores have both been big enough prospects to warrant opportunities. The entire conversation revolved around both of them. Typical Dan though... Take a sliver of a sentence, nitpick Flores being top 100, not top 50 and build an attack off it.

you got to relax bro.. DMM was not agressive at all

you said

" 1.) TDA and Flores are your 7th and 8th hitters so I don't believe you are "counting" on them to carry the team or anything. They also offer huge offensive potential, were huge prospects, and have already experienced "some" major league success in their first seasons. For a rebuilding team what else to you propose?"

and I responded saying Wilmer was never really a "huge" prospect. Why would I have to touch on TDA in order to make such a statement? If you think someone who peaked at #47, 5 years ago based on his bonus and was unranked since 2011 was a "huge" prospect I don't know what to tell you. He's never been viewed as a big time overall prospect due to his glove. Whether that view is right or wrong is besides the point.

In comment 12054386 deboGIANTS said:

Quote:

you got to relax bro.. DMM was not agressive at all

I truly was not trying to fight with him, on my life.

has nothing to do with Wilmer Flores ability to be a good player, rather the idea he was viewed as a "huge" prospect. For all I know he'll be Fonzie 2.0 and a star. Prospect sites are great but they aren't always right.

Lol. When? By asking if you were having a bad day at the office or problems with the girlfriend?? Haha. You are such a fucking pussy. Attacking you personally would be calling you a fat fuck loser 90 percent of your life and relying on baseball and arguing people behind a computer board to gain respect and how pathetic that is. That's an attack. Something I have never done.

In comment 12054386 deboGIANTS said:

Quote:

you got to relax bro.. DMM was not agressive at all

Its the constant "Not trying to get into a fight with Zgiants BUT" every day? And who immediately started with name calling and the suck a fat dicks?? DMM's not aggressive? Since when??? Holy shit.

In comment 12054392 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

Lol. When? By asking if you were having a bad day at the office or problems with the girlfriend?? Haha. You are such a fucking pussy. Attacking you personally would be calling you a fat fuck loser 90 percent of your life and relying on baseball and arguing people behind a computer board to gain respect and how pathetic that is. That's an attack. Something I have never done.

6 feet 178 pounds my friend. Though I was 268 7/2013 so you were almost right. You are a dickhead. Somehow I "fight" with Arc and others but with you it becomes a personal thing. You must be a real joy to deal with in person. Talk about immature, I never have once gone after you on a personal level. Insecure much?

but you repeatedly say I do when I ask you if you are having a bad day at the office??? Fucking sensitive much??

and telling me to suck a dick, but suddenly everything's not ok when I ask if you are having girlfriend issues? Get a fucking life.

actually specifically remember LONG conversations on here with PJ, HH, Arc etc where we would discuss scouts opinions that Flores bat was interesting but his position was a major issue. In fact, pre-2013 there was some talk of him being a platoon partner for Ike Davis. Nobody was calling Wilmer untouchable at this time last year like HUGE prospect Noah Syndergaard. In fact, unlike Thor or Wheeler or even Matz I don't recall us reading a single rumor in the entire time he's been with the Mets regarding another team "insisting" on Wilmer as part of a deal. He's never been a "huge" prospect but your ridiculously over the top sensitive reaction has me almost scared that I'm dealing with a lunatic here.

In comment 12054400 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

and telling me to suck a dick, but suddenly everything's not ok when I ask if you are having girlfriend issues? Get a fucking life.

Have I ever talked about your personal life, family, looks etc? Yes or no?

doesn't need to relax, neither does DMM. Their battles are some of the best on BBI, need them to continue

can honestly say in all my years on BBI I have never done such a thing to anyone on this site and never would. This is supposed to be "fun" even if it can be heated at times. No need to take it beyond that. There was one ex-poster/Mets fan who made me feel uncomfortable at times and even with him I never got personal.

In comment 12054404 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 12054400 ZGiants98 said: Quote: and telling me to suck a dick, but suddenly everything's not ok when I ask if you are having girlfriend issues? Get a fucking life. Have I ever talked about your personal life, family, looks etc? Yes or no?

Have I?? Yes or No? Asking you if you are having a rough day at the office is personal?? You must be the biggest fucking vagina in the history of BBI.

In comment 12054402 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

actually specifically remember LONG conversations on here with PJ, HH, Arc etc where we would discuss scouts opinions that Flores bat was interesting but his position was a major issue. In fact, pre-2013 there was some talk of him being a platoon partner for Ike Davis. Nobody was calling Wilmer untouchable at this time last year like HUGE prospect Noah Syndergaard. In fact, unlike Thor or Wheeler or even Matz I don't recall us reading a single rumor in the entire time he's been with the Mets regarding another team "insisting" on Wilmer as part of a deal. He's never been a "huge" prospect but your ridiculously over the top sensitive reaction has me almost scared that I'm dealing with a lunatic here.

Again. Bravo. As usual a long winded paragraph regarding nothing. Thanks for that though.

didn't make reference to my girlfriend and just now call me a fat loser? I need my eyes checked I guess.

wrong, but....

In comment 12054415 kmed said:

Quote:

wrong, but....

Hey I'm not the one who sold out everyone who relied on him for fantasy domination. What a dick.

the real reason I am leaving BBI is not because of my new job, it's because you are too awesome" Kmed

knew!

lets just agree to fight all year. It's too much effort trying to get along with you. Deal?

In comment 12054414 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

didn't make reference to my girlfriend and just now call me a fat loser? I need my eyes checked I guess.

Yes you clearly fucking do. Ive never met you and have no idea what you look like. I gave you an example of what an attack would look like you fucking imbecile.

As to your gf I absolutely admit I asked you if you were having a bad day at the office or at home with the gf one day when you were being extra pricky one day. If that's an attack, then I am indeed wrong. Holy shit you are sensitive little twat.

A fun season. Getting into stuff like this on a personal level will dive one of you away. That would be stupid

In comment 12054421 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

lets just agree to fight all year. It's too much effort trying to get along with you. Deal?

lol. My god dude.

have to go eat pie and get yelled at by my boss and girlfriend at the same time. Happy Holidays, let's fight again tomorrow! yes!

were signed as IFA's within weeks of each other and they were two of the more prominent international free agent signings. Joffrey Marte signed the same off-season. Marte might have even been the highest rated of the three at one point. He got a 500k signing bonus. Flores got 750k. Puello got 400k I believe.

I miss those days.

But...when you read back to the scouting reports announcing the signings and even after Flores excelled in the appalachian league as like a 16 year old no one expected him to remain at SS.

I hope he sticks there, and there is reason to believe he could be ok, but to say there aren't questions is optimistic and I wouldn't argue with someone who classifies him as a project.

In comment 12054426 Headhunter said:

Quote:

A fun season. Getting into stuff like this on a personal level will dive one of you away. That would be stupid

I'm actually really excited for the season that's the silly part. I just don't see the need to be "personal". We are discussing the Mets... in the offseason... regarding prospect status! lol I think Wilmer will hit, we will see if he can handle SS... just not more Tejada. Please.

In comment 12054431 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

were signed as IFA's within weeks of each other and they were two of the more prominent international free agent signings. Joffrey Marte signed the same off-season. Marte might have even been the highest rated of the three at one point. He got a 500k signing bonus. Flores got 750k. Puello got 400k I believe. I miss those days. But...when you read back to the scouting reports announcing the signings and even after Flores excelled in the appalachian league as like a 16 year old no one expected him to remain at SS. I hope he sticks there, and there is reason to believe he could be ok, but to say there aren't questions is optimistic and I wouldn't argue with someone who classifies him as a project.

PJ,
I know you are consistently interested in Puello and I posted Kiley McDaniel's answer about him but I couldn't really understand his answer.

to get personal(never knew I did). Ill try to not try to ask how Dan's days are going anymore. You never know what riot might issue!!

Kiley, your write-up on Puello didn�t mention the sporadic (at best) playing time he received in 2014 to the benefit of Quad A types like Brandon Allen and Anthony Seratelli. This has been a bit of a mystery amongst Mets prospect watchers; did any of the sources you talked to shed some light on that? Did Puello piss off Wally? Fall out of favor with the FO? Pour sugar in Paul Depodesta�s gas tank?


Quote:
Kiley McDaniel:
It wasn�t a bunch of glowing recommendations, more like a stern father of a kid that hasn�t met his potential, ending every sentence by throwing his hands up in the air and saying �anything could still happen, who knows?�

(The second part implies the Mets were frustrated... behaviorally? We hadn't really heard anything about that. The first part implies the scouting reports weren't good... the whole answer seems disjointed/confusing).

In comment 12054434 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 12054426 Headhunter said: Quote: A fun season. Getting into stuff like this on a personal level will dive one of you away. That would be stupid I'm actually really excited for the season that's the silly part. I just don't see the need to be "personal". We are discussing the Mets... in the offseason... regarding prospect status! lol I think Wilmer will hit, we will see if he can handle SS... just not more Tejada. Please.

We are all in agreement with that and all of us are just about on the same page with everything. The Mets are going to be good this year. No point arguing on stupid shit like is Flores a top 100 prospect or a top 50 for no reason whatsoever. You knew what my overall point was and that was that both of these guys should be getting an opportunity both with what they did last year and what they've done in the minors. At least in terms of what other options are available.

never wanted Didi (though for the price I would have taken him), I like Miller but sounds like the asking price is sky high. I really don't want Asdrubal Cabrera for one year and "wait till next year". Desmond would be pretty sweet in the off-season if Flores can't handle it.

DMMM - did you really lose 90 lbs in a year and a half? Holy crap, congrats. Takes a lot of effort and discipline - share your secrets if you don't mind. Seriously, never knew that - congrats.

is one of the more surprising non-stories I can remember in Mets world in a long time.

Why wouldn't every beat writer continually ask the FO and even Wally about it?

He came off a potential career-path-altering 2013 - and then biogenesis fallout, and to come back to persona non grata status. He was losing at-bats to Cory Vaughn who the Mets waived (and then for some reason re-signed).

I expected some reason to be given and never got it, and that answer like you say doesn't help provide one.

In comment 12054445 Shecky said:

Quote:

DMMM - did you really lose 90 lbs in a year and a half? Holy crap, congrats. Takes a lot of effort and discipline - share your secrets if you don't mind. Seriously, never knew that - congrats.

Shecky,
Yeah. Thanks. Quit drinking soda 100% (replaced it with seltzer and water), avoid pizza and pasta (though once in a while I have it), replaced "bad" snacks with veggies and nuts and I go to the gym 3-4 times a week. I had no miracle diet, I don't count calories or anything. I just try and be smart.

In all his years in theMets system, have you ever heard one good comment about him by anyone inside or outside the organization? He is insanely toolsy, and could see him somewhat blossoming somewhere else. But he is the crazy talented kid in little league that no one wanted on their team.

Look at Nimmo as the perfect contrast. He doesn't eventually want to be a Met. He is already preparing for starting and being successful one day. I don't think Puello is capable if ever thinking that far ahead...

(and both would have to check out physically in spring training or into the season) for a package around Syndergaard I can't think of anybody I'd rather have at SS over Flores. This constant pissing and moaning about him every day however is getting so tired. The team is pretty much set. It has been for a while. There are really no holes on this team. We need to find a taker for Gee and add some minor league depth ala Dice-K/Lannan types. That's about it.

In comment 12054448 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

is one of the more surprising non-stories I can remember in Mets world in a long time. Why wouldn't every beat writer continually ask the FO and even Wally about it? He came off a potential career-path-altering 2013 - and then biogenesis fallout, and to come back to persona non grata status. He was losing at-bats to Cory Vaughn who the Mets waived (and then for some reason re-signed). I expected some reason to be given and never got it, and that answer like you say doesn't help provide one.

kiley is actually a fantastic prospect writer too. I just don't understand his answer at all.

In comment 12054455 Shecky said:

Quote:

In all his years in theMets system, have you ever heard one good comment about him by anyone inside or outside the organization? He is insanely toolsy, and could see him somewhat blossoming somewhere else. But he is the crazy talented kid in little league that no one wanted on their team. Look at Nimmo as the perfect contrast. He doesn't eventually want to be a Met. He is already preparing for starting and being successful one day. I don't think Puello is capable if ever thinking that far ahead...

The thing that eats at me regarding Puello is that we don't know if his 2013 was steroid related or not. The Biogenesis plant closed down the year prior and I highly doubt he was roiding out in 2013 with a spotlight on him knowing a suspension was about to be handed down. He played inconsistently last year but he still mashed lefties. He's is also playing very well in the winter leagues. He's out of options and its going to hurt if he turns into the player he was in 2013 with somebody else.

I think you're overstating the pissing and moaning about Flores.

Maybe one person on the thread pissed or moaned about him.

I think 100% of the Mets fans on here prefer Flores all season long with no adjustment as the starter over Tejada and anyone else on the roster.

That being said many people would support a trade for Tulo.

I don't consider that pissing and moaning.

When the GM sums up his support for Flores at SS as "I wouldn't panic if Flores was the opening day SS" I'd say the fans have reacted to the prospect of that happening very well.

mention Puello as somebody who would be in the mix in spring training although I see no purpose of him making the team with Mayberry Jr. I guess if Puello was on fire in spring training, we COULD send Cambell back to AAA although I don't think that would be ideal.

In comment 12054463 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

I think you're overstating the pissing and moaning about Flores. Maybe one person on the thread pissed or moaned about him. I think 100% of the Mets fans on here prefer Flores all season long with no adjustment as the starter over Tejada and anyone else on the roster. That being said many people would support a trade for Tulo. I don't consider that pissing and moaning. When the GM sums up his support for Flores at SS as "I wouldn't panic if Flores was the opening day SS" I'd say the fans have reacted to the prospect of that happening very well.

Well I agree that YOU feel that way but I don't think you are speaking for everyone here. Also the constant comments about needing more upgrades mostly all derive around SS. There is nowhere else really to make a move. The entire roster is set. And its the best roster we've had since 2008!

(not Vegas) had a .950 OPS.

Granderson and Cuddyer block him, and he's still young enough you want him to play every day, but I'd take a long look at him in spring training.

However, he's 24 around opening day and he's probably player #38 or #39 on the 40-man so at some point they need to figure out he's part of the solution going forward or showcase him for a trade.

Sitting him in Vegas - behind the likes of Cory Vaughn is stupid IMO.

since the mid-80's, but the lineup still isn't as good as 2009.

Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, Pagan, Sheffield, it was just a better lineup.

injuries killed that lineup.

In comment 12054473 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

(not Vegas) had a .950 OPS. Granderson and Cuddyer block him, and he's still young enough you want him to play every day, but I'd take a long look at him in spring training. However, he's 24 around opening day and he's probably player #38 or #39 on the 40-man so at some point they need to figure out he's part of the solution going forward or showcase him for a trade. Sitting him in Vegas - behind the likes of Cory Vaughn is stupid IMO.

PJ. He is out of options. He either has to make the 25 man or he's gone.

In comment 12054477 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

since the mid-80's, but the lineup still isn't as good as 2009. Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, Pagan, Sheffield, it was just a better lineup. injuries killed that lineup.

No of course not but that lineup was still living off one of the best lineups in the history of the Mets in that 2006-2008 era. Those days are gone and we don't need anywhere near that lineup in todays MLB. We have a very solid lineup for todays game.

In comment 12054478 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

In comment 12054473 pjcas18 said: Quote: (not Vegas) had a .950 OPS. Granderson and Cuddyer block him, and he's still young enough you want him to play every day, but I'd take a long look at him in spring training. However, he's 24 around opening day and he's probably player #38 or #39 on the 40-man so at some point they need to figure out he's part of the solution going forward or showcase him for a trade. Sitting him in Vegas - behind the likes of Cory Vaughn is stupid IMO. PJ. He is out of options. He either has to make the 25 man or he's gone.

I read that, but I also read he cannot refuse an outright assignment. What does that mean?

to waivers which means anyone could claim him(and I believe somebody would). If he's not claimed we could outright him to AAA and he can't refuse.

but hopefully this year they won't be the most entertaining part of baseball season.

And I think this is conservative not pie in the sky/best case scenario.
Career average offensive years from Duda,Granderson,Wright,Cuddyer, and Murphy. League average(100 wRC+) years from TDA and Lagares, and 10% below average from Flores(90 wRC+).
Odds are some guys deviate from career norms, such as Wright(under), Duda(over), so they offset. Good chance Travis is better, perhaps significantly, than average(over) while lagares may slip a little(under, his BABIP was likely unsustainable in '14).
So in aggregate, a team with a wRC+ in the 96-97 range, good for 5th in the league.The obvious key is Wright not being a 100 wRC+ hitter again-we'll need 115, minimum, but we should be able to get that. The other less-noted key is the swing in production from the tandem of CY/EYJ to Cudyer/Mayberry. Huge swing expected there, accounting for several points of team wRC+.

1. Justin Upton, .812 OPS over past 3 seasons, .753 road, 15 million $ in 2015, then a free agent, high K Totals against, package cost recent 1st rounder Max Fried among others...
2. Wil Myers, .724 OPS so far, .748 on the road, coming off wrist injury, high K totals against, Package cost last year's 1st rounder Trea Turner among several others.
3. Matt Kemp, .842 OPS so far, .869 on the road (including 1.042 in over 100 AB at Coors), package included 2010 1st rounder Yasmani Grandal among others. He'll cost the Padres 15 million in 2015 and the 4 years after that - while hoping his body holds up.
4. Cuddyer has the lowest K rate among these 4, the highest OPS (.887) total, the 2nd highest road OPS (.795 with most road games in extreme pitcher parks), will cost the 2nd lowest money total over the next two years and also only cost one young prospect instead of 3+ and the lowest 1st rounder of the 4...

obviously I expect Flores to do better then (90 wRC+) but for the sake of argument and being realistic Ill put him at below leave average just to appease everyone.

some advanced stat?

by most metrics they were 8 or so in the NL, so you have to figure modest improvements by Wright and Grandy and Flores over Tejada gets you there.

I can see top 5 NL lineup.

5 players career averages, taking league average from TDA and Lagares and adding up Flores at 90 wRC+. That puts us around 5th. I actually think we can do a lot better than that, but that's just a logical conclusion based on the information we have available.

110 wRC+. The Pirates finished at 108. The Giants finished at 101. The Nationals finished at 99 and the Rockies finished at 98. The Cardinals finished at 95.

Acting conservatively, we should be in the 96-97 range which would put us in the top 5 -6.

Flores, Kirk (which is why MDD might have trouble making the team) and I believe Mejia are out of options. Gee actually has an option left but no way is 5 million sitting in LV.

In comment 12054579 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Flores, Kirk (which is why MDD might have trouble making the team) and I believe Mejia are out of options. Gee actually has an option left but no way is 5 million sitting in LV.

Yeah I don't think MDD is making the team and I'm actually happy about it. Kirk was great in a part time role last year and I think showed he can excel in pinch hitting . MDD in my mind still has an outside shot at being a regular, so I prefer him in AAA playing every day. The second an injury occurs I would call up MDD to start(over Kirk) actually.

why I am so optimistic. No more EYJ and Chrs Young types. No more Rick Ankiels. If an injury strikes we go to MDD, Kirk, Herrera, Reynolds, and Plawecki and even Nimmo possibly later on?

What about the rotation? Would anyone here cry if Colon or Neise got hurt and we had to go with Montero/Thor earlier then expected? I know I wouldn't.

doubt Thor would get the call unless it were an emergency. Super Two etc etc. Montero is probably "next" and after him I suspect there will be some turdy Lannan type stashed in Vegas, maybe even Torres as an option too. I still expect one of Gee or Niese to be dealt even for an underwhelming return.

one to get traded as well. Im just saying(unless its in the first month and a complete catastrophe) I don't have any issues with guys like Colon and Neise getting injured in 2015. We have plenty of high end depth unlike previous years.

As for Syndergaard and Super 2 it depends on the situation. Sandy has said its an important factor but not the ONLY factor and he'd have no problem calling a player up before it if need be. If Colon stubs his toe and misses one game, of course you aren't calling up Thor before Super 2 but if god forbid Wheeler goes down with Tommy John in the second game, maybe you do. At least that's what I've gathered.

I wish I had his optimism. But I dont see how we have a top 5 offense. We'd need a lot of best case scenarios to happen.

I just broke it down man. That's with nobody having a best case scenario.

That's with everyone having an average year and I erred to the extreme caution on the younger players sides.

Expecting to gain a few points in wRC+ replacing the worst LF production in MLB with a VERY potent bat(if healthy) in Cuddyer, replacing Tejada with an even a slightly below league average option at SS in Flores, and replacing even a mediocre Wright opposed to the abomination at third last year isn't at all unrealistic.

Its like player fatigue or something. If we were acquiring somebody else's Murphy we'd all be thrilled sighting what a great hitter he's been. If we acquired Tulo (aka David Wright) we'd be looking over his recent injury past and age and sighting all his past successes. If we acquired somebody else's Duda, we would be dancing in the streets at finally adding a real power bat. If we acquired a Miller (Flores) we'd be looking at his offensive upside and ignoring his questionable defensive abilities. Grass is always greener I guess...

1.) Denard Span
2.) Chase Utley
3.) Adrian Beltre
4.) Albert Pujols
5.) Matt Kemp
6.) Ryan Braun
7.) Yadier Molina
8.) Starlin Castro

1.) Denard Span( identical WAR with Lagares at 3.8 in 14)
2.) Chase Utley (Utley .746 OPS/Murphy .736) Add one extra win for Utley's defense
3.) Adrian Beltre( 5.8 WAR/ Wright 7.8 in 2012, 6.0 in 2013)
4.) Albert Pujols(3.3 WAR, .790 OPS/Duda 3.0 WAR, .830 OPS)
5.) Matt Kemp(.852 OPS, 1.8 WAR/Cuddyer 1.5 WAR in only 50 games!)
6.) Ryan Braun(1.2 WAR, .777 OPS/ Granderson .815 lifetime OPS average)
7.) Yadier Molina(TDA Steamer 2.9 WAR, OPS .744/ Molina 3.1 WAR OPS .719
8.) Starlin Castro( Castro 2.1 WAR .729 OPS/Steamer Flores 2.5 WAR .696 OPS)

Obviously not exact and just rough estimates but I think you can get the point.

but to the extent Starlin Castro shot someone in a nightclub, Im a solid pass.


http://deadspin.com/ - ( New Window )

they would of traded Syndergaard Plawecki Montero & Familia for Castro . Maybe things are turning around

In comment 12055390 Headhunter said:

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they would of traded Syndergaard Plawecki Montero & Familia for Castro . Maybe things are turning around

That's true. They may havev thrown in a bit more

has been cleared

In comment 12055397 Headhunter said:

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has been cleared

Where do you see this being reported?

In comment 12055445 Deej said:

Quote:

In comment 12055397 Headhunter said: Quote: has been cleared Where do you see this being reported?

The LI kee at I les says he was cleared. But from an incident a few weeks. The article also makes it clear they aren't sure if he was arrested, detained or completely innocent in this incident.

go
Link - ( New Window )

I saw the agent's statements. Not sure I believe them. Obviously he has an agenda and isnt on the scene. The agent's story doesnt make sense -- who goes to the police station to just report that they were not involved in a crime? And if the police really had video and told Castro that they know he wasnt involved, why did the police spokesperson say that Castro's home was searched?

I have no idea what happened, but this story isnt 100% buttoned up yet.