NFT: Heyman: Mets & Rockies quiety working on Tulowitzki deal

In comment 12042819 DanMetroMan said:

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the Mets really made a bunch of "secret" moves? We 100% knew they liked Cuddyer and then signed Cuddyer. We knew last year they wanted one of the bigger OF's (Choo was the guy people kept saying) and landed cheaper Granderson. Seems to me the Mets are pretty "clear" what they intend on doing. I think Rubin tweeted the Mets have traded for 4 MLB players (aka non-prospects) in Sandy's tenure here? Is that accurate? wow.

Granderson was a very obvious one but Colon came out of nowhere and Cuddyer signed less than a week after sources had come out and said he was totally off the radar. Colon in particular was the out of nowhere. But you're right there's not a huge track record to go off. They also downplayed their interest in Drew/Balfour last year saying neither were options when both supposedly had offers on the table.

but downplaying interest in Drew, Sandy openly admitted interest just not at Drew's number, he was public with it. Colon is a fair one, Balfour was the odd "available late in FA" option (they oddly didn't go after Rodney in the same situation/timing) but overall they pretty much "show" what they are going to do. In fact, fans/writers have mentioned Cuddyer as the Mets #1 target since mid-season. Maybe they will prove me wrong but I think the Mets (while maybe good at keeping leaks to a minimum) really aren't very "stealth" or surprising. Colon the one exception to me.

had Carig saying the QO turned them off, not that they didn't like the player. In fact, Rubin had him on the 2015 team in his "2015 plan" before FA even began.

In comment 12042568 sjnyfan said:

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that deal doesn't happen

Seriously,

I have been a loyal fan but they are grasping at straws here... will give away too much, have to pay a ridiculous amount for what... a hope and a prayer? Syndegaard will be involved...

this is typical of the Met organization and i don't see how it will work out.

I don't want to have to stop being a fan because I fail to see how any competent manager/GM could make this deal

In comment 12043016 whobetta said:

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In comment 12042568 sjnyfan said: Quote: that deal doesn't happen Seriously, I have been a loyal fan but they are grasping at straws here... will give away too much, have to pay a ridiculous amount for what... a hope and a prayer? Syndegaard will be involved... this is typical of the Met organization and i don't see how it will work out. I don't want to have to stop being a fan because I fail to see how any competent manager/GM could make this deal

They need to take chances. But Tulo is a dumb one. This guy is never healthy.

In comment 12042655 Rflairr said:

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In comment 12042492 Italianju said: Makes no sense for the Mets. You want to risk that kind of money. Risk it on that Cuban kid

Thank you!!!... pay the money for the cuban... don't throw away our prospects for an over the hill injury prone not as good away from home guy that will be a harbinger to the franchise for the remainder of his contract

just improved further

David Waldstein ‏@DavidWaldstein 4s4 seconds ago

source: Yanks close to getting RHP Nathan Eovaldi and other (maybe Garrett Jones) for Prado and Phelps @JackCurryYES and @flasportsbuzz 1st

now have

Morse, Prado, Gordon, McGahee, Salty, Stanton, Ozuna, Yelich

Would make more sense than Tulo.

Reyes is injury prone, getting up there in age and makes a lot of money.. oh wait... =x

Just not necessarily fire. Mets/Wilpons did not leak anything this morning about Tulo, but responded very quickly via Rubin to put a damper on it immediately.

I think it is very safe to say that there are more than just the Gee/Brothers/Tulo matchups. Smaller trades could be done in a minute, both sides know that. But holding out hope of a much bigger deal. Just a logical guess here...

The prick walked off the field with a batting title and took the money to play elsewhere. Let him buy more bags of ice for his knees in Toronto. (Blank) Reyes.

on mean they are whispering the offers to each other? or talking in hushed tones?

because if it was really "media quiet" how did this story leak?

In comment 12043133 Giants2012 said:

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The prick walked off the field with a batting title and took the money to play elsewhere. Let him buy more bags of ice for his knees in Toronto. (Blank) Reyes.

Of course he took the money to play elsewhere. The Mets never even offered him anything.

better than the Mets? Seriously? Assuming they don't make another trade(who's playing CF??) they should have a decent middle order but their lineup is not better then ours and our rotation blows them away. Kennedy, Ross, Cashner, Despagne, and Erlin??

In comment 12042614 DanMetroMan said:

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of the writers just told me the Rockies want Syndergaard and at least 3 of Matz, Herrera, Nimmo and Conforto + Gee or Niese. Jesus lol

That sort of package should get you Jesus. A low spending team like the Mets could never do a deal like that. We couldnt trade that for Trout. Because we'd need some of those prospects to fill holes; a big spending team could clear out the system because they can fill multiple holes in UFA.

nutty. They started off demanding deGrom, Syndergaard, plus a big prospect. Now they are doing us a favor by softening to Syndergaard, Nimmo, Conforto, Herrera, Matz, and Neise? lol.

a young catcher with five more cheap years, who can hit and field, is a huge value.

To me, D'Arnaud and Syndergaard gets it done. They are not getting a better package than that for a guy with injury red flags.

In comment 12043419 ZGiants98 said:

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nutty. They started off demanding deGrom, Syndergaard, plus a big prospect. Now they are doing us a favor by softening to Syndergaard, Nimmo, Conforto, Herrera, Matz, and Neise? lol.

You have to ask for a lot to get a lot. But I suspect that they dont have the appetite to treat Tulo as "damaged goods" even if half the teams would want no part of him. Im thinking their owner is willing/happy to just keep Tulo.

Syndergaard, ONE of Nimmo or Plawecki, and Neise or Gee. That would be my final offer and it wold be contingent on a full battery ram of physical health tests. Torn hip labrums? We don't need another A-Rod in NY.

In comment 12043448 oipolloi said:

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a young catcher with five more cheap years, who can hit and field, is a huge value. To me, D'Arnaud and Syndergaard gets it done. They are not getting a better package than that for a guy with injury red flags.

I don't see the point in that though. Now you've created a huge hole at catcher. I don't think Plawecki is ready just yet and even if he was he hasn't gotten over the hump at the major league level yet like TDA appears to have already done.

In comment 12043455 Deej said:

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In comment 12043419 ZGiants98 said: Quote: nutty. They started off demanding deGrom, Syndergaard, plus a big prospect. Now they are doing us a favor by softening to Syndergaard, Nimmo, Conforto, Herrera, Matz, and Neise? lol. You have to ask for a lot to get a lot. But I suspect that they dont have the appetite to treat Tulo as "damaged goods" even if half the teams would want no part of him. Im thinking their owner is willing/happy to just keep Tulo.

I don't know. We've heard Tulo wants out of Colorado. We've heard Colorado approached the Mets on the first day of the winter meetings wanting to make a trade. I just think their expectations of what they should get back for an injured SS in his 30s with over a 100 million left on his deal is bonkers.

I think D'Arnaud will hit for more power than Plawecki. But Plawecki is a contact hitter. Mets need a guy like that. Having too many high K guys makes the lineup vulnerable to strikeout pitchers, of which there are an increasing number in the NL.

D'Arnaud is probably better defensively but overall the Mets D will improve if you add Tulo at SS

d'Arnaud's defense is pretty shitty.

I like him a lot as a hitter though. I think the improvements he made last year were real deal and that he's going to be one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. I'll trade the bad defense for that.

In comment 12043463 ZGiants98 said:

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I don't see the point in that though. Now you've created a huge hole at catcher. I don't think Plawecki is ready just yet and even if he was he hasn't gotten over the hump at the major league level yet like TDA appears to have already done.

The reason I do it is that D'Arnaud has a lot of trade value, and the Mets are in the highly unusual position of having two young catchers. Trade the one with the most value and keep the other guy. I also think Plawecki will be a more consistent hitter than TDA, albeit with less power. I think he can hit .280 and that eventually he will hit 15 HR.

In comment 12043476 arcarsenal said:

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d'Arnaud's defense is pretty shitty. I like him a lot as a hitter though. I think the improvements he made last year were real deal and that he's going to be one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. I'll trade the bad defense for that.

His D has not been great, but he was voted the best defensive catcher in the Eastern League by opposing managers, so you have to think that the pass balls were the result of anxiety and that eventually he will be a decent defender.

has been projected to be an above average defensive backstop his entire professional career. He'll never be great throwing out runners but he should be middle of the pack as long as the bone chips are no longer an issue. Lets let the kid make adjustments and see if he can cut the passed balls down a little before we proclaim his a shitty defender for the rest of his careers. MOST catchers improve substantially going into their second full seasons. They simply have a ton more going on and a lot more to learn then most rookies.

In comment 12043480 oipolloi said:

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In comment 12043463 ZGiants98 said: Quote: I don't see the point in that though. Now you've created a huge hole at catcher. I don't think Plawecki is ready just yet and even if he was he hasn't gotten over the hump at the major league level yet like TDA appears to have already done. The reason I do it is that D'Arnaud has a lot of trade value, and the Mets are in the highly unusual position of having two young catchers. Trade the one with the most value and keep the other guy. I also think Plawecki will be a more consistent hitter than TDA, albeit with less power. I think he can hit .280 and that eventually he will hit 15 HR.

That's completely fair. I just think if you are trading the farm for Tulo we are clearly going for it. Plawecki needs more seasoning and even if we throw him into the fire, do we really want to wait half a season(like TDA last year) for him to figure it out?? And that's also assuming he surpasses what TDA did as well? Its a real risky proposition. I get the logic though.

In comment 12043460 ZGiants98 said:

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Syndergaard, ONE of Nimmo or Plawecki, and Neise or Gee. That would be my final offer and it wold be contingent on a full battery ram of physical health tests. Torn hip labrums? We don't need another A-Rod in NY.

That's a reasonable package.

Tulo + Plawecki

is still a huge upgrade over

TDA + Tejada/Flores

I think it is on the generous side to project Tulo as a 4.5 WAR player for the remainder of his contract, since he's an injury risk twice over (likely both to miss big time AND just need a lot of rest) and he's on the wrong side of 30. But if you give him that projection, his excess value is about $70 million aka 10 WAR.

Steamer has TDA as a 3 fWAR player next season. We have 5 more years of cost control on a 3 fWAR catcher? And frankly I think he could hit for a higher average than Steamer's projected .254. He's a career ~.325 hitter at AA/AAA. I dont have a lot of trouble projecting TDA as at least a 15 WAR player over the next 5 seasons. Add in the expected value for Thor of about 10 WAR over the next 7 seasons, again cost controlled (estimate ballparked from fivethirtyeight.com). That is 25+ WAR expected performance and because of cost controls where guys are dirt cheap for 3 years and then get 40-60-80 percent of their UFA value over the arb years, we're going to pay way less than 15 WAR ($90 million) for the next 5-6 years of Thor and TDA.

I think Thor and TDA is a deal you only consider if you're already a strong contender. That is a big payment. Im ready to have my math/assumptions torn apart.

15 fWAR would be $105 million. We'll pay less than $105 million for the non-UFA years of TDA and Thor.

In comment 12043518 Deej said:

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I think it is on the generous side to project Tulo as a 4.5 WAR player for the remainder of his contract, since he's an injury risk twice over (likely both to miss big time AND just need a lot of rest) and he's on the wrong side of 30. But if you give him that projection, his excess value is about $70 million aka 10 WAR. Steamer has TDA as a 3 fWAR player next season. We have 5 more years of cost control on a 3 fWAR catcher? And frankly I think he could hit for a higher average than Steamer's projected .254. He's a career ~.325 hitter at AA/AAA. I dont have a lot of trouble projecting TDA as at least a 15 WAR player over the next 5 seasons. Add in the expected value for Thor of about 10 WAR over the next 7 seasons, again cost controlled (estimate ballparked from fivethirtyeight.com). That is 25+ WAR expected performance and because of cost controls where guys are dirt cheap for 3 years and then get 40-60-80 percent of their UFA value over the arb years, we're going to pay way less than 15 WAR ($90 million) for the next 5-6 years of Thor and TDA. I think Thor and TDA is a deal you only consider if you're already a strong contender. That is a big payment. Im ready to have my math/assumptions torn apart.

I think you are dead on. And that is almost worst case scenario regarding Thor and TDA. Syndergaard accumulating 10 WAR over 7 years would be a travesty. The guy's is predicted to be an ACE. He could hit 10 WAR in only 2 seasons let alone 7. Same for TDA. His projections are very conservative. He could easily break out a little further than what he showed us last year.

Yeah, I have zero interest in trading TDA. That's a guy I want to keep.

In comment 12043506 oipolloi said:

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Tulo + Plawecki is still a huge upgrade over TDA + Tejada/Flores

Yes but is Tulo+Plawecki

better than

TDA, Flores, and Syndergaard?

I don't know honestly.

but he is a guy that realistically can be the centerpiece of a deal to bring Tulo back

the only reason you can trade TDA is that you have Plawecki. That's an incredible strength to have two young catchers. Deal from strength.

a bunch of spare parts like Gee, Montero and Flores is not getting it done. You want Tulo, you gotta give something up.

I'd compare it to the Gary Carter trade. Mets gave up Hubie Brooks, who had hit .300 his first year. Or the Keith Hernandez trade, where the Mets gave up a seemingly great young closer in Neal Allen.

is to make it a 3 team trade where some of the assets going to COL for Tulo come from a 3rd team that gets Murphy. Tulo at SS and Flores/Herrera at 2B.

are already giving up one of the best right-handed pitching prospects in the game who is major league ready and is touted as a future ace. The guy throws a 100 MPH. He might be the best pitcher on our staff in a year. That's the center of the deal. No need to throw in our young future all-star catcher as well.

In comment 12043556 oipolloi said:

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but he is a guy that realistically can be the centerpiece of a deal to bring Tulo back

Makes sense, but then you cant give Thor. Thor is too much value as a second piece.

If Thor is going in a Tulo deal, he's the centerpiece. There's no reason to move TDA with him.

Colorado is being extremely unrealistic. I have no problem rolling with Flores for a half a season, evaluating Reynolds a bit further, and then deciding. Even conservative Steamer has Flores outhitting Starlin Castro. Lets see what we have first.

The Rockies think they are holding on to a young Trout or something and are going to rebuild their team in one foul swoop. They need a dose of reality. Nobody is giving up what they are asking for.

Profar as well. If his shoulder truly checks out in the spring maybe that's who you trade Thor for.

With the Mets finances, they can't take the risk. A team like the Yankees or Dodgers can take him on because if he can't play, they can afford to swallow the contract.

Not the Mets.

If Tulo re-injuries himself and can't play, that contract could actually sink what looks like a promising future.

So, unless the Wilpons give assurances that they will swallow the contract, should the need arise, I don't trade for Tulo if I'm Sandy.

what we have this season. There weren't many holes to begin with. The club just looks solid from top to bottom. I view this as YEAR 1 post rebuild and us competing for a wild card. Its not close to a finished product but most of the talent has arrived or is on the verge of arriving. I view this as climbing a mountain. In a year or two when guys like deGrom and Wheeler and TDA start hitting their primes, I expect us to challenging for the division and the WS. Much of our talent only just completed their first year. There will be jumps in production but it shouldn't be expected all at once. If Matz and Thor fulfill their billings as number 1 and number 2 starters, we might have one of the best young rotations in the history of baseball.

Either way, the time is now. The losing days are over. Time to sit back and watch some very good Mets teams win some baseball games.

if David is healthy and hits the way he can, this team has a good chance of competing for the playoffs (barring catastrophic injuries)

They could also be a team that comes on late as Harvey rounds into shape and Thor and possibly Matz come up and join the big club during the season.

to SF for minor league pitching

Ross to the Cubs 2 for 5

Peavy stays in SF 2 for 24

underestimating how far good pitching can take you. There's been plenty of WS winners over the last few years with lame lineups and holes all over the place. I look at somebody like Matz, who is developing a reputation as being a big game pitcher(carried a no hitter in the playoffs) and he reminds me of deGrom and Harvey. The lights and adrenaline just hit some players differently when they arrive.

And its so funny that people act like these guys have to carry 8 scrubs. We have 4 former all-stars in our lineup and none of them are our best hitter(Duda) or our two young hitters expected to do extremely well at their positions offensively this year(TDA + Flores).

Bat .290 and hit 15 homeruns and Ill be thrilled. We don't need him to be that 30 homerun monster anymore. The lineup is no longer Wright and a bunch of scrubs. I see production coming from every hitter in our lineup.

In comment 12043669 ZGiants98 said:

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Bat .290 and hit 15 homeruns and Ill be thrilled. We don't need him to be that 30 homerun monster anymore. The lineup is no longer Wright and a bunch of scrubs. I see production coming from every hitter in our lineup.

Exactly. We do need Duda to still be THE DUDE, however!

we need Duda to be Duda but I think he will. Steamer and all these stat machines that have never watched a Mets baseball game see his season as an outlier but we all know that's not what happened. He finally got a chance and changed his approach at the plate. He finally started swinging and putting it all together. I think Duda actually has a BETTER season next year with the porch moved in a full fresh season knowing he's the starter heading in.