NFT: Heyman: Mets & Rockies quiety working on Tulowitzki deal

Tough to give all that up but do you really say no to that? I don't think I would.

get 3/5ths of a rotation, a borderline SS and a top catching prospect for their awesome but injury prone and highly paid SS and some cash?

I wouldn't make that trade. I'd roll the dice with Flores and if he proves over half a season he's not up to the job revisit the trade at the deadline.

do it

I probably would too.

the only real major league contributor it takes from the Mets is Flores and he's replaced by Tulo.

Plawecki and Thor are expected to start in the minors and Montero is in limbo land like Mejia was.

I'd maybe try and get a top prospect of the Rockies back too.

instant contenders or set themselves back if Tulo is injured. Some times you have to roll the dice

the summer to see if Tulo is healthy and what I have in Thor & Flores. The
Rockies will still take that package in July

id try to exchange Montero for a different sp prospect but if pressed I would do that

In comment 12049948 Headhunter said:

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the summer to see if Tulo is healthy and what I have in Thor & Flores. The Rockies will still take that package in July

id wait at least until he was doing baseball activities for a few weeks so like spring training time frame

on this. Make sure you fully know what you're getting and giving up

And he's probably getting back 2 of the big 3 pitchers (JDG/Wheeler/Thor).

If the above trade is offered, I'd do it and not look back. 6/85M for a potential MVP candidate? Even with all of the recent injuries, he's had 5 WAR in five of the last 6 years. He over delivers that contract with 2 healthy years out of the 6, and whenever healthy that team is 100% going to the playoffs with a chance to bring back a championship. And on the downside, when not healthy they're exactly where they are now, just with less prospect depth. You have to give to get and as far as I can tell there's only 1 blue chipper on each side of that deal - Tulo & Thor.

For the record, I think you could get TT cheaper than that from the prospect POV, but I doubt you could get COL to throw in that much $. Take out Montero and the $ and I think you're in the ballpark.

(if the dr.'s believe his injuries are chronic that obviously changes everything)

IF. IF he's recovered from hip surgery and IF his hip isn't recurring.

That's a lot for a "?"

In comment 12050016 feelflows said:

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IF. IF he's recovered from hip surgery and IF his hip isn't recurring. That's a lot for a "?"

Correct - but their doctors will be able to review his medical records and make an expert evaluation as to whether or not this is an isolated thing that got fixed or an ongoing thing that will need to be managed. If he's truly damaged you obviously can't do the deal but if the Dr.'s believe he's healthy I'd go for it. And hopefully it won't be the same Dr. that told Reyes to run differently.

I don't think doctors are able to analyze that. With players like him, when one thing heals, another thing goes wrong.

and it's fucking ridiculous that the New York Mets are being talked about as having to take money in a trade but giving up more prospects. Drop 2 of the prospects and DONT get $35 million.

Noah
1 of the 3 prospects
Gee

Even better would be Noah, Murphy, Gee, with Murphy being spun off to a 3rd team for prospects.

don't want to give up Thor to get Tulo. The whole thing just scares the shit out of me and the Mets don't have the greatest track record with these signings. I understand that you have to take risks (and I agree) but this is a BIG risk. The risk is usually in the prospects you have to give up for proven talent...the risk SHOULDN'T be on hoping that an ALREADY injured player will be injury free. That's a bad bet.

An injury prone 30 year old with hip problems...yeesh...hip problems don't tend to get better with age. I dunno. I'd rather roll the dice on Thor being another ACE.

Plus, take away the COL offensive numbers and he's not such a special offensive player. Still really good but not "COL numbers" good. Eh, I just don't have a good feeling about Tulo.

Side note...are we bidding against ourselves in these talks? I haven't heard any other teams involved.

Nobody else is known to be serious. But its not bidding. More negotiations.

...about Tulo.

I'm not sure who they would even give up, though. Their farm is already kind of weak as it is and most of their best prospects are still in A ball or AA. They don't really have much of anything that is close to MLB ready.

I'd guess Colorado would want Betances and Gregorius as the starting point for any package. Then likely add in at least 2 of their best prospects or maybe even Eovaldi. I don't think the Yanks make Betances available at all and that ends that.

for Tulo and $20 m back. If that isn't enough, then we should stand pat.

In comment 12050577 Ira said:

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for Tulo and $20 m back. If that isn't enough, then we should stand pat.

OF COURSE that wouldn't be enough. Colorado isn't moving Tulo & cash for 1 prospect.

In comment 12049862 pjcas18 said:

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get 3/5ths of a rotation, a borderline SS and a top catching prospect for their awesome but injury prone and highly paid SS and some cash? I wouldn't make that trade. I'd roll the dice with Flores and if he proves over half a season he's not up to the job revisit the trade at the deadline.

No. You do that deal in a heartbeat

but put me in the group that wants to wait until you have a better idea of Tulo's health. This would be such a make or break move for us that id like to at least know the guy is doing "Baseball activities" before we traded away a couple top 50 prospects and Montero.

Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN 18m18 minutes ago
With at least 42 HOF ballots public (~7.4% of total cast), Pedro Martinez still unanimous. Mike Piazza has slipped to 85.7%, but still > 75%

Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN 2m2 minutes ago
Competing counter -- Baseball Think Factory -- has Pedro Martinez left off 1 of 51 public ballots and Mike Piazza at 78.4 percent.

is going to get hosed again.

The writers obviously are convinced his numbers were enhanced, even if they don't have evidence.

No doubt this is also a popularity contest. The baseball writers never cared for Piazza, probably because he came across as someone who was gracious with them, also was comfortable in his own skin. He didn't bow at their altar. Now tehy are making an example of him, imo.

Too bad. As a Mets fan, and trying not to be biased, it makes zero sense to omit Piazza, and his historic offensive numbers by a catcher.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

The 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

The 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!

Updated 5:25 ~ 51 Full Ballots ~ (8.9% of vote ~ based on last year) ~ As usual�BBWAA ballot digging is welcome!

98.0 - P. Martinez
98.0 - R. Johnson
88.2 - Smoltz
84.3 - Biggio
78.4 - Piazza
������������
70.6 - Bagwell
68.6 - Raines
56.9 - Schilling
43.1 - Mussina
39.2 - Bonds
37.3 - Clemens
25.5 - E. Martinez
25.5 - Trammell
17.6 - McGriff
15.7 - Lee Smith
13.7 - Kent
9.8 - McGwire
9.8 - Sheffield
7.8 - L. Walker
������������-
3.9 - Sosa
2.0 - Garciaparra
2.0 - Pete Rose (McWrite-In)
Link - ( New Window )

are writers like Sean McAdam who say they omitted Piazza last year because of the PED rumors, but then voted for New Englander Jeff Bagwell (who has as much PED rumors as Piazza or close to it)

Be consistent, have a basis for your vote. Just don't make it random or make a statement.

Ah, crap, why did I even get started, these people are a f-ing joke.

I even tweeted McAdam last year and he said he would vote for Piazza next year (this year). WTF? I asked if it was Ortiz if he'd vote for him - no reply.

In comment 12050353 PhiPsi125 said:

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don't want to give up Thor to get Tulo. The whole thing just scares the shit out of me and the Mets don't have the greatest track record with these signings. I understand that you have to take risks (and I agree) but this is a BIG risk. The risk is usually in the prospects you have to give up for proven talent...the risk SHOULDN'T be on hoping that an ALREADY injured player will be injury free. That's a bad bet. An injury prone 30 year old with hip problems...yeesh...hip problems don't tend to get better with age. I dunno. I'd rather roll the dice on Thor being another ACE. Plus, take away the COL offensive numbers and he's not such a special offensive player. Still really good but not "COL numbers" good. Eh, I just don't have a good feeling about Tulo. Side note...are we bidding against ourselves in these talks? I haven't heard any other teams involved.

Good post.

Corrone apparently talked too, Syndergaard, Matz, Gee, and Lagares would be fair value for Tulo with 5 million per coming back.

Lol. Nope. Kicks rocks Rox!

In comment 12051442 ZGiants98 said:

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Corrone apparently talked too, Syndergaard, Matz, Gee, and Lagares would be fair value for Tulo with 5 million per coming back. Lol. Nope. Kicks rocks Rox!

Well, I really hate that trade. Funny thing with these experts is they have no idea whether Tulo is 100% healthy or a shell of his former self, or something in between. My real problem with trading for Tulo is that I assume the Rockies know his status way better than we do, and are only trading him because they're scared re his health.

Trying to think of a trade where a team knowingly gave up a huge haul for a damaged goods superstar. Anyone have an example?

Plawecki, Gee and Flores

Do it up

Id stay away from Tulo and Profar until Spring training. In either trade Id deal Syndergaard if they prove healthy but thats the meat of the deal. All these Syndergaard, Matz, Nimmo, Herrera, Conforto, Lagares deals are a joke.

In other news, Flores is absolutely making an abomination out of the winter leagues. This is current though this past Friday.
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 12051474 DanMetroMan said:

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Plawecki, Gee and Flores Do it up

Yeah I'd dot that.

Fangraphs breaks down the Mets Prospects
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 12051442 ZGiants98 said:

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Corrone apparently talked too, Syndergaard, Matz, Gee, and Lagares would be fair value for Tulo with 5 million per coming back. Lol. Nope. Kicks rocks Rox!

Awful deal sorry. Replace Matz with Montero and Lagares with Flores and I'd do it.

absolutely include Flores as the "solid young regular" since we have Murphy, Herrera and Reynolds. Can't give up Lagares (unless of course he was the headliner which we know he wouldn't be).

Or maybe if they really want a CF they can have MDD instead of Flores. I think MDD might still be a useful player.

guy is a waste of time. He says:

Quote:

According to the above sources, because of the significant risk associated with Tulowitzki�s health and contract, Colorado should expect to cover at least $5 million a year on his remaining contract, otherwise no team will give up a meaningful prospect to get him. This would bring his annual salary down to around $13-15 million, which is what the Padres are now paying Matt Kemp.

Cerrone is reporting that Tulo at his present salary is WORTHLESS. That's what "meaningful prospect" means in that sentence. I dont know that I agree (in fact, I disagree), but that is his starting position and the purported consensus of these experts.

But if Cerrone is right, he's essentially saying the Mets should take Tulo off the Rockies hands for free and at the same time sell Colorado the rights to Thor, Matz, Lagares, and Gee for a collective $30 million. Is he fucking nuts? Total investment in Jung-Ho Kang will be around 30 million. Rusney Castillo got $72 million. The notion that a top 20 overall prospect, a top 50 overall prospect (LHP), a 3-4 fWAR CF who is 4 years from free agency, and Gee (some positive value) are worth only a $30 million transfer payment is totally fucking ignorant.

question his "experts". They are acting like Lagares is a throw in and the meat is Syndergaard AND Matz. Get out of here.

#Mets prospect L.J. Mazzilli receives 50-game suspension for second positive test for a drug of abuse, MLB announces.

if the Mets can do this deal and not give up any players who were expected to fill a role THIS (other than those replaced by the trade) then it's worth listening to.

As soon as you start mentioning Lagares, Wheeler, TdA (though I've only rarely seen his name mentioned) it's a non-starter.

The Mets become better at SS, but worse too many other places.

Which is why Thor, Flores (replaced by Tulo), Gee (expendable) and Plawecki (blocked by TdA) makes sense from a Mets fan perspective.

Plus CO gets some good players.

The Mets even arguably have more risk given the salary due Tulo and the injury status - which is why there should be cash coming back.

At the end of the day though, if Sandy pulls that trade off it's essentially Dickey, Flores and Gee for Tulo - Sandy would be a maestro.

In comment 12051764 feelflows said:

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#Mets prospect L.J. Mazzilli receives 50-game suspension for second positive test for a drug of abuse, MLB announces.

I take it that means a recreational drug and not a PED?

ill a role THIS season

Unearthed some new names and the system is deep,deep with legit prospects

I look forward to the read later today

In comment 12051787 pjcas18 said:

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ill a role THIS season

I disagree with this attitude. What makes 2015 so important? If anything I'd argue that our window probably opens up more in 2016 -- the pitchers will be a bit older, Harvey wont be as limited, and hopefully the wheels come off the bus a bit for the Nats. As of now, the Nats have a better rotation than us and their lineup has five guys with Steamer projected fWAR of 3+ compared to our one (Wright).

In comment 12051793 Headhunter said:

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Unearthed some new names and the system is deep,deep with legit prospects

Fangraphs rates Thor a 65 Future Value player vs. 60 for Addison Russell. Get it done Sandy.

I'm sure to some degree the Mets like all their guys, that's why they got picked in the first place, but one would have to think there are a few with value around the league that they wouldn't mind moving as much. But I guess we might have said that about JdG last year, so maybe there's something to the fact that all of their guys are getting underrated just because they aren't Harvey/Thor/Wheeler? Regardless, would be nice to see the Coupons spend some money so we can stop reading shit like this once and for all:

Quote:

Organizational Overview by Dave Cameron If you focus primarily on the young pitching, the Mets future is very bright. If you assume that a team in the country�s largest market can�t possibly continue to spend this little on their Major League payroll, then the future might be even brighter, as distance from the Madoff mess can only help. There are reasons for optimism in Queens. But young pitching is a shaky foundation around which to build, and the Wilpons aren�t acting like they own a team in New York just yet. The arrow is pointed upwards, but 2015 might be another year of climbing rather than enjoying the view from the top. And if the team keeps running payrolls under $100 million, then they better hope all these young arms stay healthy or things could get rough again in a hurry.

NYM Prospect Overview - ( New Window )

In comment 12051786 Deej said:

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In comment 12051764 feelflows said: Quote: #Mets prospect L.J. Mazzilli receives 50-game suspension for second positive test for a drug of abuse, MLB announces. I take it that means a recreational drug and not a PED?

Seeking counseling so sounds like something worse than Pot. Real moron considering his advanced age (24)