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NGT: turnovers are the #1 stat for wins and losses

SMitch2 : 1/23/2015 10:08 am
I thought that the deflate-gate was not that big a deal. But then I heard that a soft football prevents fumbles. A friend turned me on to the linked blog. If that guy's analysis is correct, the Pats have gotten a HUGE advantage by deflating footballs.

I also noted that fumbles lost -- the NYG are pretty bad. However in his analysis of all fumbles we are near the top of low fumbles per play. I guess we're just crappy at recovering the fumbles we do lose. Tom ought to work on that.


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But if all but one of the footballs were underinflated  
jcn56 : 1/23/2015 10:16 am : link
wouldn't both teams have the same advantage in terms of fumbling?
All but one of the Patriots balls was under inflated.  
Peter in Atl : 1/23/2015 10:19 am : link
All of the Colts balls were within spec.
Ah, thanks Peter  
jcn56 : 1/23/2015 10:23 am : link
I missed that in all of the hysteria.
amazing  
kotter : 1/23/2015 10:46 am : link
part of this is the statistical disparity of how many plays run per fumble... New England is so far out of the norm that it's almost impossible that they weren't doing something to get an advantage.
correct  
SMitch2 : 1/23/2015 10:46 am : link
The balls aren't all mixed up during the game. Each team plays with their own footballs when on offense.
This each team provides footballs was  
SMitch2 : 1/23/2015 10:47 am : link
unknown to me until this whole thing broke. I thought they played the game with league provided balls -- which is how it should be.
Is it turnovers?  
Giantology : 1/23/2015 11:40 am : link
I thought it was points
and the site is down...  
mattlawson : 1/23/2015 12:19 pm : link
.
.  
mattlawson : 1/23/2015 12:31 pm : link



explains bill's forthcoming presser about detailing how hard they make the ball to hold onto in practice to prevent turnovers. didnt is seem completely out of character to share that information? he knows the data is there - has to explain it.

this is a smoking gun.
This is pretty damning evidence  
Aquasax : 1/23/2015 12:53 pm : link
And it's starting to make the rounds. Funny how everyone was sure it was to benefit Brady (not saying it wasn't) but maybe this was really about the ball-carriers.

So maybe the RBs are deflating the football...  
WideRight : 1/23/2015 12:55 pm : link
And Brady is being honest.
I wonder if that 12th ball was left fully inflated for a reason...  
WideRight : 1/23/2015 12:58 pm : link
a particular type of pass play...
if those metrics are true  
UConn4523 : 1/23/2015 1:08 pm : link
then there needs to be a huge investigation. If they led the league over 1 or 2 seasons in least amount of fumbles, fine. But for 4-5 years being that far outside of the pack and I have to wonder.

Anyone who thinks this is going away or thinks it should go away are wrong. If this is a longterm thing and can be proven so, the fallout ould be tremendous.
God damn  
giantgiantfan : 1/23/2015 1:22 pm : link
fuck the Patriots. They should lose picks 1 & 2 in the next draft, fine the organization a million, fine Bellicheat 100k, and suspend Bellicheat for the first 4 games.
I still say  
Dave : 1/23/2015 1:59 pm : link
suspend them both, immediately and indefinitely

they are repeat offenders, liars, and cheaters

If not, I bet lil bill will have some nonsense planned for Super Sunday to show everyone how clever and untouchable he is
We are 5th  
WideRight : 1/23/2015 2:53 pm : link
in total fumbles and 6th in fumble rate.

Looks accurate
For no reason  
Deej : 1/23/2015 3:05 pm : link
I just want to point out again that Mike Piazza is not in the baseball HOF because of suspicions that he did steroids. And the wet panty crowd of baseball purist reporters always starts with the poor suffering Boston guys (still convinced they were all angry that the Sox actually won and did so by emulating the Yanks).
So the officials  
LS : 1/23/2015 3:19 pm : link
handled these balls what, maybe 200 times in this game? And not one of them noticed anything wrong with them? So how much difference can it really make?
officials  
SMitch2 : 1/23/2015 3:27 pm : link
are firstly assuming that the balls are legit as they checked them a few hours prior. Second, they focusing on the game, player alignments, game clock and a million other things. Thirdly, you only really notice the difference when you intentionally squeeze the football.

And yes, it makes a difference if your fingers can bear down and get a better grip. Listen to what JBettis has to say in the video.
Like to see a similar analysis...  
bw in dc : 1/23/2015 3:58 pm : link
to other eras where teams had long stretches of excellence.

Green Bay from the last '50s to the mid-60s. Dallas, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Oakland in the '70s. The 49ers in the '80s and into the middle of the '90s. Dallas for most of the '90s.

My intuition is there may be similar dominance.

But I think this is less about the ball's "grippiness" and more about a well coached team, with one of the greatest QBs in history, during a phenomenal run of winning...
RE: But if all but one of the footballs were underinflated  
rsjem1979 : 1/23/2015 4:02 pm : link
In comment 12106349 jcn56 said:
Quote:
wouldn't both teams have the same advantage in terms of fumbling?


Jesus Christ, it's like people don't read anything.

Each team provides 12 balls that will be used ONLY WHEN THEY HAVE POSSESSION.
RE: RE: But if all but one of the footballs were underinflated  
Curtis in VA : 1/23/2015 4:05 pm : link
In comment 12106891 rsjem1979 said:
Quote:
In comment 12106349 jcn56 said:


Quote:


wouldn't both teams have the same advantage in terms of fumbling?



Jesus Christ, it's like people don't read anything.

Each team provides 12 balls that will be used ONLY WHEN THEY HAVE POSSESSION.


Are you the pot or the kettle?
Could the 12th ball  
markky : 1/23/2015 4:35 pm : link
Have been for kicking?
12th ball may never have been used  
SMitch2 : 1/23/2015 4:55 pm : link
If Papa is right in his guess as to how it would be done, it's the ball boy that is getting the ball ready just prior to it being used in each series.

And Yes, the sustained excellence of the Pats has everything to do with a great coach, great QB, talented team -- but if they can steal a few games each season because they didn't fumble and the other team did, apparently they're not above doing so...
RE: Could the 12th ball  
giants#1 : 1/23/2015 4:57 pm : link
In comment 12106933 markky said:
Quote:
Have been for kicking?


No. The kicking balls are provided by the league and have a "K" on them.
Very suspicious  
gmenatlarge : 1/23/2015 5:22 pm : link
Especially considering the gap between 1st and 2nd place in the fumble rates, a differential of that magnitude is bound to raise some eyebrows. It's questionable to chalk that up to better coaching!
Colts  
OBJ Seems Okay : 1/23/2015 10:50 pm : link
A few weeks back, when they played the pats the first time, the colts felt the pats game balls and realized they were a bit soft, and so before the championship game, they told the refs before hand to check the patriots balls during the game
so, wait a minute, Smitch  
idiotsavant : 1/24/2015 7:28 am : link
is what you are saying that the Pats have soft balls and the refs did not squeeze them properly?

LOL - suspensions  
stoneman : 1/24/2015 10:24 am : link
Please - like they should have cracked down on the old stadium doors - suspensions. Some one would have to admit to doing it and I don't think that is coming.
RE: So the officials  
montanagiant : 1/24/2015 11:55 am : link
In comment 12106840 LS said:
Quote:
handled these balls what, maybe 200 times in this game? And not one of them noticed anything wrong with them? So how much difference can it really make?

How many times a game do the officials grip the ball hard enough to throw it 30 yards?
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