NFT: Weatherman: Monday storm for Long Island?

We only have 9 eggs left in the house. It might be time to panic.

"This could be the biggest snowstorm in the history of this city," Mayor Bill de Blasio told reporters Sunday. "My message for New Yorkers is prepare for something worse than we have ever seen before."

it's deadly serious. NYC is going to get hit very hard.

Boy

dangerous conditions...
but....

is anyone else excited??

the total gets larger! I'm in Rockland about 20 miles north of the NYC. work at a school in N. Westchester. They called, already cancelled Monday and Tuesday.

In comment 12109155 JayBinQueens said:

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dangerous conditions... but.... is anyone else excited??

Depends. If I lose my power I will be pretty pissed.

If I just wind up with a couple snow days off work and get to catch up on some TV series and sleep in, then I can sign up for that.

Never before seen accumulation forecasts for NYC that are the same as for Lower Hudson Valley and SE CT at that those levels. Even in 1978, when, as I recall, we had two blockbuster blizzards, one in late January and the second in early March as I recall 19" and 27" respectively), the forecasts "spared" NYC, relatively speaking.

they are talking 45 mph sustained winds and gusts to hurricane strength. The power outages could last a week or more. When you put 30" of snow on a tree and than blast it with that much wind the tree just falls over, taking power lines with it.

There will be deaths, too. Scary shit.

In comment 12108902 WeatherMan said:

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the links to their accumulation maps during events like this are often right there. For NYC, the office page is linked below. If that's not where you need to be, click one of the arrows surrounding the zoom out button and that will move you to the next office in the direction chosen. link - ( New Window )

thanks WM.
Was able to get it for NY, BOS, but not DC.

Heavy snow or light?? I'm in Europe ATM, my house is near Carmel NY (Stormville to be exact!) Not sure I'm going to find any local kids to pull the accumulations off the roof!
Man I'm worried!!! Plowing is arranged, roof pulls not so much!! Anyone near me & wants to earn some cash to pull snow off roofs? (I have the roof rake available) 2 houses... (main & cottage)

In simple terms, bombogenesis is the equivalent of a "meteorological bomb," according to The Weather Channel's Kevin Roth. It occurs when a storm's area of lowest pressure experiences a rapid drop of more than 24 milibars in 24 hours. "This turns a routine storm into an intense storm very quickly," Roth told NBC News.

Link - ( New Window )

What is the expected snow total for NYC ?

In comment 12109429 Run with 81 said:

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Heavy snow or light?? I'm in Europe ATM, my house is near Carmel NY (Stormville to be exact!) Not sure I'm going to find any local kids to pull the accumulations off the roof! Man I'm worried!!! Plowing is arranged, roof pulls not so much!! Anyone near me & wants to earn some cash to pull snow off roofs? (I have the roof rake available) 2 houses... (main & cottage)

My parents live in Stormville. The totals should be a little lower north of the city and away from the coast. Last I checked Southern Dutchess County was in the 12-18 range but a slight shift can change that. I'll keep you posted

Now, I can't get the graphic of snowfall predictions on the NWS NYC or BOS page.

still in the foot range, but not as much over 20"

Man, you would think they would have a direct link under "Maps".
Very user unfriendly despite great info.

WM-any reason why weather.gov is much better than weather.com?

So jealous of you guys up north, we're being gyped in the mid atlantic.

In comment 12109904 jlukes said:

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still in the foot range, but not as much over 20"

Yeah now more 12-24 than 24+

In comment 12109904 jlukes said:

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still in the foot range, but not as much over 20"

according to whom?

ground zero.

The center of the storm moved eastward, but that still leaves Boston close to the middle of the worst weather, with NYC on the edge. My son is in Hartford. Looks as if they are going to get their asses kicked, too. Down the middle of this oval, the winds are going to be fierce. 20"+ of snow and gusts to 70 MPH could mean record tree-loss and power outages in the worst hit areas.

In comment 12109912 hudson said:

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Man, you would think they would have a direct link under "Maps". Very user unfriendly despite great info. WM-any reason why weather.gov is much better than weather.com? So jealous of you guys up north, we're being gyped in the mid atlantic.

Private forecasters are incented by ratings, clicks, share, noteriety, etc to overstate and overdramatize. The professionals at NOAA much less so.

The Signal and the Noise - Why So Many Predictions Fail, But Some Don't by Nate Silver has a great discussion and explanation of this topic.

is even further west ...

link?

you shall
receive. - ( New Window )

not a hint of warm weather to melt any of this shit once it hits, at least through Sunday.

cars off the streets by 11 PM in NYC per DiBlasio.

I've been all over this storm since yesterday afternoon, Following total predictions & just this morning (say around your 10am) they moved the 24-36" line east. It was (all last night for me) over Middletown area (other side of the Hudson River line) Now it looks like only Eastern CT & most of LI are in the 24-36 range!!!! Boston looks like they're going to get POUNDED!! South Eastern Dutchess is back to 12-18 (possibly 24 on our Lil mountain in Stormville) so THANK GOD for that! I'll stay on this till it's over or I loose my Cable connection (internet) out there when I won't be able to watch things develope live on my cameras. (have a fully automatic whole house Generator with UPS systems so I never really loose power but Cable conns do get lost... When I loose my "eyes" then I start worrying and calling local friends for updates...

Is 24-36" the true upper limit for this storm or is it a limit of the software?

Just saw there is a possible 36-48 band.

You were able to find some good news.

Don't the folks at NOAA know you shouldn't have overlapping categories when displaying info. Should be labeled 24-<36, 36-<48 and 48+.

In comment 12110054 BobOnLI said:

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Don't the folks at NOAA know you shouldn't have overlapping categories when displaying info. Should be labeled 24-<36, 36-<48 and 48+.

Give me an example of how that will matter?

You're the statistical Phd. However, when you are talking about a range of estimates, rather than a range of results, does it really matter?

In comment 12110054 BobOnLI said:

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Don't the folks at NOAA know you shouldn't have overlapping categories when displaying info. Should be labeled 24-<36, 36-<48 and 48+.

LOL, I can't think of a single instance where this would matter one freaking iota.

People nitpick the weirdest things.

It matters if you are trying to publish in a peer-reviewed journal. Anyway, it is just sloppy, looks unprofessional.

In comment 12110054 BobOnLI said:

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Don't the folks at NOAA know you shouldn't have overlapping categories when displaying info. Should be labeled 24-<36, 36-<48 and 48+.

wouldn't the 36 - <48 category include everything <48 thus overlapping with all categories other than 48+?

should be read as "to".

if the weather were 74 degrees and sunny.

Watching the pree trying to save face this morning is comical. Why is there still a travel ban in place?

now on the the Feb 1st storm....

the guidance has been waffling somewhat with how far north this thing is coming. The latest GFS has a nice track to lay a decent amount of snow across the region. 3 days out, I think it's safe to start posting some snow maps...enjoy.

says 4-8 inches with CNJ getting the most

working from home vs working at the office is a no brainer. Sign me up for 6" plus in CT

From a source that's not biased? ;)

And it's still snowing at a good clip

.

In comment 12115543 Jon said:

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And it's still snowing at a good clip

same here, in northern Dutchess County.