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NFT: Weatherman: Monday storm for Long Island?

Danny Kanell : 1/24/2015 9:10 am
Just saw some rumblings on some Facebook weather pages I follow that the Monday storm is trending towards a blizzard type storm for LI, NYC and coastal areas. Nothing looks definitive though and wanted to get your thoughts.

Thanks!


(Fap - Tom [Giants Fan])
In the best Archer voice that I can muster  
jcn56 : 1/24/2015 9:17 am : link
Eat a dick, Mother Nature.
I've been hearing the same!  
ShocknAwe80 : 1/24/2015 9:22 am : link
inquiring minds want to know
No weather guy here  
Sec 103 : 1/24/2015 9:54 am : link
but I believe it's been downgraded...
Tri State Weather just posted this  
Danny Kanell : 1/24/2015 10:20 am : link
on FB

Quote:
A meatball Warning is now in effect! Eating meatball from now until Monday. All kidding aside what I am seeing on the models and what they are trending to is amazing to see. The Models (not all) want to capture a lot off the coast and bring it into our region. IF this were to happen LI would have simply put a lot of snow to deal and that will travel NE into Boston where well "just wow". I do not want to get into details and hype but if the NAM.euro model was correct double digit snowfall amounts from NYC on east would be common. So lets take it one model run at a time and see if the other models will catch on. I will continue to update you! - Adam
re-post  
natefit : 1/24/2015 10:36 am : link
sloppy mess
natefit : 8:16 am : link : reply
here in nyc but nothing earth shattering. ABC NY said this am Mon storm may miss nyc area entirely and stay to the south
These reports  
ODB13 : 1/24/2015 3:27 pm : link
Are a joke seriously . Just this morning 1010 wins and 880 reports said Sunday Monday could be 1-3 inches for New York and Long Island then the sun would be out. Now I am hearing from the same two stations how we are getting snow all day Monday and into Tuesday, very frustrating
Sunday into Monday  
ODB13 : 1/24/2015 3:30 pm : link
I meant
Just saw this now  
Danny Kanell : 1/24/2015 3:35 pm : link
Quote:
12z Euro model is coming in right now and all I have to say is wow. Looks like everyone has been eating lots of meatballs. It has 1-2 feet possibly more for everyone from ALL of NJ to NYC, Westchester, Long Island, CT and MA for Mon into Tues. Temps would be in the 20's with high ratios that could push amounts further! It also stalls! Trust me i am not trying to hype but if this was correct, even NYC schools will be closed for 1-2 days! Remember this is just what the model shows and not a forecast(yet). Need to see more consistency first.


The fuck?

Weatherman?
Everyone loves wxrisk, right?  
Kevin in CT : 1/24/2015 3:44 pm : link
He is going along with what DK wrote. Said the trend is pointing to a possible blizzard.
Danny Kannell  
ODB13 : 1/24/2015 3:45 pm : link
I had a feeling it was the Tri-state weather page, This is the same site i unfollowed last year because they hyped up not one but two snow days in which we got close to nothing both times one was in late February then again in early March. I rather get the reports from weatherman on here
east coast of New England looks to get the brunt of it  
WeatherMan : 1/24/2015 4:00 pm : link
eastern LI might see higher totals as well, but that's still uncertain. Cape Cod and coastal Maine might meet the criteria for blizzard conditions, seeing that from this one in NY is not likely.
as far as Facebook pages  
WeatherMan : 1/24/2015 4:01 pm : link
follow your local NWS office. The rest are run to run wiggle watching idiots at best, and blatant hype peddlers at worst.
Wxrisk  
Fish : 1/24/2015 4:13 pm : link
Is a putz.
Weatherman  
Kevin in CT : 1/24/2015 4:25 pm : link
You love Jim Cantore, right? Ha


We're going to need a bigger boat for this next one Monday night and Tuesday! pic.twitter.com/V3zqMtjBus
.  
Danny Kanell : 1/24/2015 4:28 pm : link
Thanks Weatherman!
Cantore is highlighting an individual model  
WeatherMan : 1/24/2015 4:34 pm : link
there is substantial variation in the bigger picture. Latest day 3 probabilities for 4+, 8+, and 12+ highlights the target area well.
NBC NY says  
natefit : 1/24/2015 6:20 pm : link
Mon nite (NOT Mon day) into Tues. 6-12 maybe more!
if unfamiliar with z time on the maps  
WeatherMan : 1/24/2015 7:29 pm : link
00Z Tuesday = 7pm EST Monday.
I trust  
nygnyy274 : 1/24/2015 7:44 pm : link
BBI weather man more then anyone on CBS NBC or FOX just like a previous poster stated i also heard a dusting sunday into monday and that's it for the week although it was going to be a cold week. Now I am
Hearing a blizzard monday and Tuesday and now we are getting more snow Thursday..
it will be big, the question is where  
WeatherMan : 1/24/2015 8:00 pm : link
I'm not convinced that it'll track close enough to the NY coast for a major NYC event as of yet, further east will get hit hard for certain either way as there's a nice blocking high setup that will make for a slow exit off the east coast of New England.
mass hysteria  
spike : 1/24/2015 9:40 pm : link
in the media
They're saying  
pjcas18 : 1/24/2015 9:43 pm : link
14 - 24 inches here in Metro-Boston and for once they say the snowfall amount isn't that hard to predict with this storm.

and where I am is closer to two feet than 14 inches.

blizzard conditions, starting Monday night late (like around midnight) and snow through the day Tuesday.
yeah, pjcas you're going to get hit hard  
WeatherMan : 1/24/2015 9:54 pm : link
easily over a foot.
RE: yeah, pjcas you're going to get hit hard  
pjcas18 : 1/24/2015 10:04 pm : link
In comment 12108126 WeatherMan said:
Quote:
easily over a foot.


I can't complain I guess, other than the 7 - 8 inches we got today, it snowed once in November. and that's it so far.
the morning runs are coming into agreement  
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 3:44 am : link
and the results are quite a bit closer to the coast. This is an uncommon setup, my early call from the last thread is at this point dead wrong. Batten down the hatches folks. Max totals still eastern New England, but those in NYC are now in it for a substantial storm as well.
Thanks Weatherman.  
JayBinQueens : 1/25/2015 3:54 am : link
Even though it's late night we still appreciate your input
RE: the morning runs are coming into agreement  
spike : 1/25/2015 4:26 am : link
In comment 12108235 WeatherMan said:
Quote:
and the results are quite a bit closer to the coast. This is an uncommon setup, my early call from the last thread is at this point dead wrong. Batten down the hatches folks. Max totals still eastern New England, but those in NYC are now in it for a substantial storm as well.


At approximately what time will the storm hit?
Monday late night onset  
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 4:33 am : link
Tuesday is the primary impact.
what counts as  
JayBinQueens : 1/25/2015 4:38 am : link
"substantial" for NYC?
the latest is this.  
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 5:02 am : link


The precise location of the mesoscale banding will feature the highest totals, but given consensus results further north double digits in the city are increasingly likely.
.  
Danny Kanell : 1/25/2015 7:59 am : link
Shit just got real.

Thanks WM.
For Central nj I've seen everything from 8 to 24 inches  
jlukes : 1/25/2015 8:21 am : link
For monday night
Wxrisk may have lost his mind  
Kevin in CT : 1/25/2015 8:48 am : link
He just posted that this storm has the potential to be historic. 30 plus inches over NYC and into eastern New Enland,
GET READY!  
natefit : 1/25/2015 8:50 am : link
"This is going to be a big one, historic," Weather Channel coordinating meteorologist Tom Moore said. "There could be paralyzing, crippling blizzard conditions. They're going to be talking about this one for a while."

Link - ( New Window )
Central VA going to get anything...  
Dunedin81 : 1/25/2015 8:54 am : link
other than some bad road conditions?
Blizzard watches now in effect  
dpinzow : 1/25/2015 10:11 am : link
for NYC, Rockland, Westchester (NY)

Bergen, Essex, Eastern Passaic (Paterson), Union (NJ)

Pretty much all of CT
And of course all of LI  
dpinzow : 1/25/2015 10:11 am : link
since they will be closer to the high winds
Well, this  
Sec 103 : 1/25/2015 10:19 am : link
blows!
so much for  
spike : 1/25/2015 11:05 am : link
Monday plans
It looks like Tuesday is going to be the bad day, not tomorrow.  
arcarsenal : 1/25/2015 11:10 am : link
.
I just went to the grocery store  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 1/25/2015 11:11 am : link
which I do pretty regularly on Sunday mornings and it was a madhouse. It's only one day, people.
RE: I just went to the grocery store  
jcn56 : 1/25/2015 11:12 am : link
In comment 12108420 Bobby Humphrey's Earpad said:
Quote:
which I do pretty regularly on Sunday mornings and it was a madhouse. It's only one day, people.


Bad planning. First thing you do after finding out about a weather event like this is determine which of your neighbors is the weakest and fattest, so you know who to eat first.
Any input on Philly/Bucks County?  
Dave in PA : 1/25/2015 11:18 am : link
from tomorrow morning on through tuesday? Thanks guys
Damn so the rest of  
AnishPatel : 1/25/2015 11:19 am : link
NJ will be spared.. I figured we would be getting a lot of snow.
RE: RE: I just went to the grocery store  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 1/25/2015 11:20 am : link
In comment 12108424 jcn56 said:
Quote:
In comment 12108420 Bobby Humphrey's Earpad said:


Quote:


which I do pretty regularly on Sunday mornings and it was a madhouse. It's only one day, people.



Bad planning. First thing you do after finding out about a weather event like this is determine which of your neighbors is the weakest and fattest, so you know who to eat first.


I have already decided that we will eat Byong Sun.
This baby is trending west  
Jon : 1/25/2015 11:21 am : link
I wonder how much snow will sneak into the eastern portion of PA?
WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!  
Giantology : 1/25/2015 11:28 am : link

- The Weather Channel
question guys - how much does putting salt down matter  
knicks3031 : 1/25/2015 11:37 am : link
with this amount of snow? Just ran out to grab some and Home Depot was all out. Will it make a significant difference?

Also, if I should go run out again to find some, what kind is best?

Thanks.
I was supposed to go to the Rangers/Isles game Tuesday night, too.  
arcarsenal : 1/25/2015 11:39 am : link
Looks like this storm is going to totally wipe that out. Faccckkkk.
Blizzard watch  
10thAve : 1/25/2015 11:44 am : link
for Monmouth and Ocean counties, calling for 1-2 feet of snow. I can't wait.
RE: question guys - how much does putting salt down matter  
Jon : 1/25/2015 11:51 am : link
In comment 12108441 knicks3031 said:
Quote:
with this amount of snow? Just ran out to grab some and Home Depot was all out. Will it make a significant difference?

Also, if I should go run out again to find some, what kind is best?

Thanks.


What kind of surface are you putting it on? As long as you get out and shovel immediately following the storm , salt won't have much of an effect .
Any word on NEPA  
dep026 : 1/25/2015 11:55 am : link
it looks like it might miss us?
RE: WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!  
Hammer : 1/25/2015 11:57 am : link
In comment 12108436 Giantology said:
Quote:

- The Weather Channel


ROFLMAO
RE: Any word on NEPA  
dpinzow : 1/25/2015 11:59 am : link
In comment 12108455 dep026 said:
Quote:
it looks like it might miss us?


From what I've read you're on the cusp but Weatherman knows more so he'll elaborate
Dammit  
hudson : 1/25/2015 12:00 pm : link
I'm so jealous of you guys; I ALWAYS miss blizzards.
When I was at UCONN, NOVA got their historic one and we got zip.

This is what makes me miss the northeast.
I take it the Rangers-Islander game Tuesday is likely to be called off.
RE: the latest is this.  
hudson : 1/25/2015 12:02 pm : link
In comment 12108257 WeatherMan said:
Quote:


The precise location of the mesoscale banding will feature the highest totals, but given consensus results further north double digits in the city are increasingly likely.


Weatherman: How do you get those maps on weather.gov?

I've seen people post maps from weather.gov both of anticipated preciptation and of reports of what has fallen. Would really like to see for myself. Very user-unfirendly.
RE: Dammit  
JayBinQueens : 1/25/2015 12:30 pm : link
In comment 12108460 hudson said:
Quote:
I'm so jealous of you guys; I ALWAYS miss blizzards.
When I was at UCONN, NOVA got their historic one and we got zip.

This is what makes me miss the northeast.
I take it the Rangers-Islander game Tuesday is likely to be called off.


Since it's out on LI I'd bet that it will be.
If it was in the Garden I doubt it would. I went to a game last year during a bad storm.
This is the one time I'm upset they're not playing in the Garden... Could have got some pretty cheap tickets
When this thing supposed to start?  
UConn4523 : 1/25/2015 12:37 pm : link
In fairfield county, ct I'm hearing monday afternoon.
Thanks Jon - Just cement on the driveway  
knicks3031 : 1/25/2015 12:41 pm : link
so I won't worry about running out to find salt
for nyc  
natefit : 1/25/2015 1:10 pm : link
area tomrw some snow showers maybe an inch or 2 by early evening - so a regular day. Then 1-2 inches an hr overnight. Latest I saw was 14-18 by Tues midday and they said could be more.
UPDATED  
Jon : 1/25/2015 1:14 pm : link


hudson, link for NYC area below
link - ( New Window )
hang on to your hats  
Jon : 1/25/2015 1:19 pm : link
latest euro model for your viewing pleasure...again this is just a model and not a forecast..

Am I reading that model correctly?  
manh george : 1/25/2015 1:54 pm : link
If so, it has NYC and environs just north getting around 36 inches

The NWS advisory say that "this has the potential to be a storm of historic proportions."

Yuck.
Every  
Fish : 1/25/2015 1:59 pm : link
Weather outlet keeps bumping the totals up. Headline grabber. Yes it's gonna be bad but slow talks of 3 feet are beginning. By tomorrow am we will have potential for 4 feet forecasted lol.
The Euro is keeping this storm as a blockbuster for NYC,  
dpinzow : 1/25/2015 2:00 pm : link
the lower Hudson Valley and northern NJ, but all the other models want to push it east giving New England the bullseye...so what gives? Usually the Euro is the most reliable model which makes this scenario dangerous
RE: RE: I just went to the grocery store  
BMac : 1/25/2015 2:02 pm : link
In comment 12108424 jcn56 said:
Quote:
In comment 12108420 Bobby Humphrey's Earpad said:


Quote:


which I do pretty regularly on Sunday mornings and it was a madhouse. It's only one day, people.



Bad planning. First thing you do after finding out about a weather event like this is determine which of your neighbors is the weakest and fattest, so you know who to eat first.


And don't forget to ascertain whether their children are fat, too. You can store the tasty little tykes down in the basement "for later." They're easy to catch, so don't worry about them getting away.
RE: RE: RE: I just went to the grocery store  
BMac : 1/25/2015 2:02 pm : link
In comment 12108430 Bobby Humphrey's Earpad said:
Quote:
In comment 12108424 jcn56 said:


Quote:


In comment 12108420 Bobby Humphrey's Earpad said:


Quote:


which I do pretty regularly on Sunday mornings and it was a madhouse. It's only one day, people.



Bad planning. First thing you do after finding out about a weather event like this is determine which of your neighbors is the weakest and fattest, so you know who to eat first.



I have already decided that we will eat Byong Sun.


Is that your neighbor?
Even at 30"....  
manh george : 1/25/2015 2:02 pm : link
with blizzard-level winds, there will be drifts taller than you are. To be a formal blizzard, you need winds over 35 mph.
Yum  
manh george : 1/25/2015 2:04 pm : link
Real Chinese food, made with real Chinese.
I hope this beast starts earlier tomorrow  
JonC : 1/25/2015 2:29 pm : link
so I can work from home for a couple few days.
...  
christian : 1/25/2015 2:33 pm : link
Yeah hoping my office is smart enough to wrap up early tomorrow and get people working from home Tue and Wed, but knowing our HR we'll plan a fire drill and town hall Tuesday outdoors.
RE: UPDATED  
hudson : 1/25/2015 2:34 pm : link
In comment 12108503 Jon said:
Quote:


hudson, link for NYC area below link - ( New Window )
jon...how did you do that?
I want one for DC and Boston.
My Honda Snowblower  
ColHowPepper : 1/25/2015 2:38 pm : link
is seven years old, runs on treads not wheels, and has a lot of mileage under her belts, a real reliable trooper for our steep hill driveway (we live in the boonies). Her intake bin is probably 20" high (but cones in sharply to feed the rotors) and 34" wide. At a foot of snow, I have to set forward gear speed very slow and motor speed very high so the rotors are spinning fast enough to evacuate what is coming into the bin, it's very slow, monotonous going at a foot. The snow chute at about 5" diameter can only get rid of so much. At 18" - 24"--we're deep purple in the NWS forecast (forget the European model)--it's torture, and with high winds blowing, which reduces the chances I'll go out in the wee hours to make a pass before the accumulation ramps, it may not look like I've accomplished much.

I do this at my advanced age, because the guys who come in with their pickups and a blade attached to the front leave a hard packed ~ one inch of snow on the driveway as the blade does not make a clean cut/shave, and its weight packs down what it doesn't pick up at road level. Because of the steep driveway, after they get done and if it gets and stays sub-freezing, that packed one inch of snow becomes ice and we wind up with a luge course instead of a driveway.

Just thought you'd want to know this. lol

Good luck to all! Yeah, and it looks as though Islanders - Rangers may be at risk, even if the distance to travel is probably second shortest between two teams. Nice piece on the Bridgeport Sound Tigers this morning, attesting yet again to the Islanders depth, which the Rangers have yet to master this season.
I would be shocked...  
manh george : 1/25/2015 2:45 pm : link
if less than 30% of Suffolk county, outer NYC boroughs, and southern NY counties east of the Hudson end up without power.

The combination of this much snow and this much wind is likely to result in downed trees hitting power lines.

Btw, NYC winter storm history linked. This is supposed to be worse than at least half of those.
Link - ( New Window )
Ugh I hate even asking this  
Mike in Long Beach : 1/25/2015 2:46 pm : link
But do we think the Islanders - Rangers game is going to be postponed on Tuesday night?
RE: Ugh I hate even asking this  
hudson : 1/25/2015 2:49 pm : link
In comment 12108612 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:
But do we think the Islanders - Rangers game is going to be postponed on Tuesday night?
i already asked and covered this topic. Read first next time.
Unless the storm finks out...  
manh george : 1/25/2015 2:49 pm : link
no sporting events in NYC or on LI on Tuesday.
Snow!  
spike : 1/25/2015 2:51 pm : link
Hudson  
manh george : 1/25/2015 2:51 pm : link
Not everyone reads every line of a thread.

No need to be a dick.
RE: I would be shocked...  
natefit : 1/25/2015 2:56 pm : link
In comment 12108611 manh george said:
Quote:
if less than 30% of Suffolk county, outer NYC boroughs, and southern NY counties east of the Hudson end up without power.

The combination of this much snow and this much wind is likely to result in downed trees hitting power lines.

Btw, NYC winter storm history linked. This is supposed to be worse than at least half of those. Link - ( New Window )

Those recent ones bring back some nice memories with my kids. Thanks.
i feel like they will do virtually anything to get this one in.  
Mike in Long Beach : 1/25/2015 2:56 pm : link
But that could be me just wanting it to happen more than anything. That would really suck.
if the players are able to get back to ny  
KWhite2250 : 1/25/2015 3:03 pm : link
then they will all stay at the marriot and play. they might not have more than 300 fans though
I don't think they're going to play the game.  
arcarsenal : 1/25/2015 3:06 pm : link
They'll re-schedule it.

It's not like you can just take a train and have it dump you off right at the coliseum. People have to drive there and the snow is probably going to be still going at game time and already have accumulated a bunch. Maybe getting the players in there will be possible but I don't see how fans are going to be able to get there. The place will be empty.
hudson  
Jon : 1/25/2015 3:09 pm : link
...
... - ( New Window )
arc  
KWhite2250 : 1/25/2015 3:15 pm : link
the tix are sold. if the players are all told to get to long island by monday 6pm they will play. they hav done it before. but in the past you prob just remember it as a normal game crowd for isles
Yeah but because it's the Isles and Rangers...  
arcarsenal : 1/25/2015 3:22 pm : link
It shouldn't be that hard to just reschedule the game. They're in such close proximity that they'd just have to find a mutual off day where both teams are home beforehand or after. I'd imagine it wouldn't be terribly difficult.

If the accumulations are going to be what they appear, I just can't see how they play the game.
Hopefully  
Fish : 1/25/2015 3:33 pm : link
They reschedule on a day your not suckin it dork.
The  
Big Al : 1/25/2015 3:48 pm : link
National Weather Service in New York has issued a Blizzard Warning, which is in effect from 1 pm Monday to midnight EST Tuesday night. The Blizzard Watch is no longer in effect.

Locations: New York City and surrounding immediate suburbs, Long Island, and most of southern Connecticut.
Hazard types: Heavy snow and blowing snow, with blizzard conditions.
Accumulations: snow accumulation of 20 to 30 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Winds: north 30 to 40 mph with gusts 55 to 65 mph, strongest across eastern Long Island.
Visibilities: one quarter mile or less at times.
Temperatures: in the lower 20s.
Timing: light snow will begin Monday morning, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches possible by the evening rush. Snow will pick up in intensity Monday evening, with the heaviest snow and strongest winds from about midnight Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.
RE: Hudson  
hudson : 1/25/2015 3:55 pm : link
In comment 12108620 manh george said:
Quote:
Not everyone reads every line of a thread.

No need to be a dick.

It's Milb so social norms don't apply.
No way they have the game with this forecast. There will be a state of emergency for everybody to stay off roads.
Jon  
ChemDawg1990 : 1/25/2015 4:07 pm : link
Idk how to post pics but your same forecast model (nws) is now saying 24-36 inches for nyc and 18-24 surrounding area
Nvm  
ChemDawg1990 : 1/25/2015 4:08 pm : link
My bad didn't see it till now, thanks for that
Jaw drop  
dpinzow : 1/25/2015 4:25 pm : link
From NWS:

.  
Danny Kanell : 1/25/2015 4:29 pm : link
This is absolutely insane. I don't think I've ever seen imminent forecast totals this high ahead of a storm.

We had 32 inches in my town (Ronkonkoma) in one storm Feb 2013, which was the most I've ever seen but I think it was only forecasted to be 16-20ish.

I have to think if we get this much snow, AT LEAST Tues and Wed are shot this week as far as schools/roads etc.
I hope everyone is safe  
UConn4523 : 1/25/2015 4:30 pm : link
and that I can work from home tues/wed
The inch totals are one factor  
Headhunter : 1/25/2015 4:41 pm : link
to me the density is just as important and maybe more so. Powdery snow is
one thing, heavy wet snow is another. Weatherman,which is it going to be?
Anyone know  
MookGiants : 1/25/2015 4:41 pm : link
what weather forecast is for philly tomorrow? And north through allentown up to scranton. Taking my nephew to royal rumble tonight and plan on driving back home in morning
Watch  
natefit : 1/25/2015 4:41 pm : link
DeBlasio keep the schools open again lol...
RE: Any input on Philly/Bucks County?  
Mike in Philly : 1/25/2015 4:43 pm : link
In comment 12108427 Dave in PA said:
Quote:
from tomorrow morning on through tuesday? Thanks guys

Here you go Dave:

Sorry for the size of the image. BTW, I'm in Doylestown. How close are you?

RE: The inch totals are one factor  
Danny Kanell : 1/25/2015 4:43 pm : link
In comment 12108754 Headhunter said:
Quote:
to me the density is just as important and maybe more so. Powdery snow is
one thing, heavy wet snow is another. Weatherman,which is it going to be?


I've read it's going to be the light, powdery type but I'll defer to WM.
Diblasio  
Deej : 1/25/2015 4:44 pm : link
has snow on his hands
I guess the main issue is the commute home tomorrow in NYC  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 1/25/2015 4:46 pm : link
The weather says it will only be a couple of inches, but officials are making it seem like everyone's commutes will be treacherous.
RE: Anyone know  
Jon : 1/25/2015 4:50 pm : link
In comment 12108755 MookGiants said:
Quote:
what weather forecast is for philly tomorrow? And north through allentown up to scranton. Taking my nephew to royal rumble tonight and plan on driving back home in morning


If you're driving back in the morning , you'll be fine. This storm starts tomorrow afternoon/evening.
RE: Anyone know  
dpinzow : 1/25/2015 5:09 pm : link
In comment 12108755 MookGiants said:
Quote:
what weather forecast is for philly tomorrow? And north through allentown up to scranton. Taking my nephew to royal rumble tonight and plan on driving back home in morning


You should be OK tonight...tomorrow morning you might get snow from the clipper, but go early tomorrow to avoid the worst.

Enjoy the Rumble Mook
I shot you an e-mail Mook  
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 5:33 pm : link
for everyone else there nothing new to cover at this point, get your supplies set if not tonight by early Monday. Monday night this storm cranks up, and Tuesday the area will be generally impassable.
RE: RE: Any input on Philly/Bucks County?  
Dave in PA : 1/25/2015 6:55 pm : link
In comment 12108759 Mike in Philly said:
Quote:
In comment 12108427 Dave in PA said:


Quote:


from tomorrow morning on through tuesday? Thanks guys


Here you go Dave:

Sorry for the size of the image. BTW, I'm in Doylestown. How close are you?


Thanks Mike. I'm in Warminster, but just got home from one of my favorite Doylestown restaurants, Domani Star.
Regarding the hockey stuff  
Mike in Long Beach : 1/25/2015 6:56 pm : link
Which I know a few people currently posting on this thread are interested in, back 2010 when a smaller, but still significant storm hit the northeast, the NHL refused a request from the Islanders to cancel the game.

This was based on the fact that both team's players were in Long Island and ready to play.

I have no idea idea what time the boys from both teams get back from the All Star game tonight, but that may impact the game being played.
Link - ( New Window )
What a waste it would be for DeBlasio to keep the schools open.  
manh george : 1/25/2015 6:57 pm : link
Under his leadership, there isn't any learning going on anyway, except for isolated groups who will do fine working from their computers.

Better: keep the libraries open.
the schools can be open on Monday  
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 6:59 pm : link
Tuesday not so much, and with the extent of cleanup needed probably not Wednesday and potentially even Thursday too. The city is in the you gonna get it hard swath of snowfall.
Still not getting a good reading about NEPA  
dep026 : 1/25/2015 7:06 pm : link
Some are saying 8 inches, others are saying only just a few.
RE: Anyone know  
hudson : 1/25/2015 7:17 pm : link
In comment 12108755 MookGiants said:
Quote:
what weather forecast is for philly tomorrow? And north through allentown up to scranton. Taking my nephew to royal rumble tonight and plan on driving back home in morning

Not much snow in Yinzville from this storm.
RE: hudson  
hudson : 1/25/2015 7:18 pm : link
In comment 12108640 Jon said:
Quote:
... ... - ( New Window )

Thanks Jon...how the hell you'd do that?
hudson - go the homepage of your local NWS office  
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 7:21 pm : link
the links to their accumulation maps during events like this are often right there. For NYC, the office page is linked below. If that's not where you need to be, click one of the arrows surrounding the zoom out button and that will move you to the next office in the direction chosen.
link - ( New Window )
Lehigh Valley  
feelflows : 1/25/2015 7:23 pm : link
Is on the edge, so predictions will be inconsistent at best. WFMZ said we are getting a few inches, but they rely on AccuWeather.


Be prepared for 10" and be thankful if we get less.
So do we call this a Josh Brown track?  
SwirlingEddie : 1/25/2015 7:32 pm : link
Be safe everyone and good luck!
just another map  
Jon : 1/25/2015 7:48 pm : link
from weatherbell


interactive link - ( New Window )
RE: What a waste it would be for DeBlasio to keep the schools open.  
jeff57 : 1/25/2015 7:58 pm : link
In comment 12108880 manh george said:
Quote:
Under his leadership, there isn't any learning going on anyway, except for isolated groups who will do fine working from their computers.

Better: keep the libraries open.


Can always count on someone to try to turn a weather thread into a political thread.
Grocery shelves  
natefit : 1/25/2015 8:34 pm : link
already being stripped bare Im hearing. Get what you need asap or risk starvation.
I wasn't trying to turn it into a political thread.  
manh george : 1/25/2015 8:38 pm : link
I was trying to complement its primary content with an "I hate Bill DeBlasio" sub thread.

I would hate him just as much if he were a Republican, a communist or an anarchist. (I'm not sure, is that how you spell antiChrist?) I mostly vote Democratic, so this is personal, not really political.
I just realized  
djm : 1/25/2015 8:53 pm : link
We only have 9 eggs left in the house. It might be time to panic.
Hype or prep?  
natefit : 1/25/2015 8:57 pm : link
"This could be the biggest snowstorm in the history of this city," Mayor Bill de Blasio told reporters Sunday. "My message for New Yorkers is prepare for something worse than we have ever seen before."
not hype, when the NWS is putting out the 24-36" swath  
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 8:59 pm : link
it's deadly serious. NYC is going to get hit very hard.
Oh  
Hammer : 1/25/2015 9:52 pm : link
Boy
I know it's going to be hell getting around the city and very  
JayBinQueens : 1/25/2015 10:08 pm : link
dangerous conditions...
but....

is anyone else excited??
damn each time I log into weather.com  
Stu11 : 1/25/2015 10:10 pm : link
the total gets larger! I'm in Rockland about 20 miles north of the NYC. work at a school in N. Westchester. They called, already cancelled Monday and Tuesday.
RE: I know it's going to be hell getting around the city and very  
arcarsenal : 1/25/2015 10:12 pm : link
In comment 12109155 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
dangerous conditions...
but....

is anyone else excited??


Depends. If I lose my power I will be pretty pissed.

If I just wind up with a couple snow days off work and get to catch up on some TV series and sleep in, then I can sign up for that.

What WM said  
ColHowPepper : 1/25/2015 10:12 pm : link
Never before seen accumulation forecasts for NYC that are the same as for Lower Hudson Valley and SE CT at that those levels. Even in 1978, when, as I recall, we had two blockbuster blizzards, one in late January and the second in early March as I recall 19" and 27" respectively), the forecasts "spared" NYC, relatively speaking.
Some parts, especially LI...  
manh george : 1/25/2015 10:23 pm : link
they are talking 45 mph sustained winds and gusts to hurricane strength. The power outages could last a week or more. When you put 30" of snow on a tree and than blast it with that much wind the tree just falls over, taking power lines with it.

There will be deaths, too. Scary shit.
RE: hudson - go the homepage of your local NWS office  
hudson : 1/25/2015 11:11 pm : link
In comment 12108902 WeatherMan said:
Quote:
the links to their accumulation maps during events like this are often right there. For NYC, the office page is linked below. If that's not where you need to be, click one of the arrows surrounding the zoom out button and that will move you to the next office in the direction chosen. link - ( New Window )
thanks WM.
Was able to get it for NY, BOS, but not DC.
Weather Man...  
Run with 81 : 1/26/2015 2:09 am : link
Heavy snow or light?? I'm in Europe ATM, my house is near Carmel NY (Stormville to be exact!) Not sure I'm going to find any local kids to pull the accumulations off the roof!
Man I'm worried!!! Plowing is arranged, roof pulls not so much!! Anyone near me & wants to earn some cash to pull snow off roofs? (I have the roof rake available) 2 houses... (main & cottage)
Its 'da bomb'!  
natefit : 1/26/2015 8:24 am : link
In simple terms, bombogenesis is the equivalent of a "meteorological bomb," according to The Weather Channel's Kevin Roth. It occurs when a storm's area of lowest pressure experiences a rapid drop of more than 24 milibars in 24 hours. "This turns a routine storm into an intense storm very quickly," Roth told NBC News.

Link - ( New Window )
Any updates from Weatherman?  
spike : 1/26/2015 10:02 am : link
What is the expected snow total for NYC ?
RE: Weather Man...  
ArtVandelay : 1/26/2015 10:08 am : link
In comment 12109429 Run with 81 said:
Quote:
Heavy snow or light?? I'm in Europe ATM, my house is near Carmel NY (Stormville to be exact!) Not sure I'm going to find any local kids to pull the accumulations off the roof!
Man I'm worried!!! Plowing is arranged, roof pulls not so much!! Anyone near me & wants to earn some cash to pull snow off roofs? (I have the roof rake available) 2 houses... (main & cottage)


My parents live in Stormville. The totals should be a little lower north of the city and away from the coast. Last I checked Southern Dutchess County was in the 12-18 range but a slight shift can change that. I'll keep you posted
We're fucked  
Maximus, Esq. : 1/26/2015 10:14 am : link
Dammit  
hudson : 1/26/2015 12:35 pm : link
Now, I can't get the graphic of snowfall predictions on the NWS NYC or BOS page.
Looks like totals have dropped a bit for NYC and westward  
jlukes : 1/26/2015 12:39 pm : link
still in the foot range, but not as much over 20"
Nevermind  
hudson : 1/26/2015 12:41 pm : link
Man, you would think they would have a direct link under "Maps".
Very user unfriendly despite great info.

WM-any reason why weather.gov is much better than weather.com?

So jealous of you guys up north, we're being gyped in the mid atlantic.
RE: Looks like totals have dropped a bit for NYC and westward  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 1/26/2015 12:42 pm : link
In comment 12109904 jlukes said:
Quote:
still in the foot range, but not as much over 20"


Yeah now more 12-24 than 24+
RE: Looks like totals have dropped a bit for NYC and westward  
Jon : 1/26/2015 12:44 pm : link
In comment 12109904 jlukes said:
Quote:
still in the foot range, but not as much over 20"


according to whom?
latest from noaa  
Jon : 1/26/2015 12:46 pm : link
Boston still looks to be...  
manh george : 1/26/2015 12:49 pm : link
ground zero.

The center of the storm moved eastward, but that still leaves Boston close to the middle of the worst weather, with NYC on the edge. My son is in Hartford. Looks as if they are going to get their asses kicked, too. Down the middle of this oval, the winds are going to be fierce. 20"+ of snow and gusts to 70 MPH could mean record tree-loss and power outages in the worst hit areas.

Mt holly  
Jon : 1/26/2015 12:50 pm : link
RE: Nevermind  
SwirlingEddie : 1/26/2015 12:51 pm : link
In comment 12109912 hudson said:
Quote:
Man, you would think they would have a direct link under "Maps".
Very user unfriendly despite great info.

WM-any reason why weather.gov is much better than weather.com?

So jealous of you guys up north, we're being gyped in the mid atlantic.


Private forecasters are incented by ratings, clicks, share, noteriety, etc to overstate and overdramatize. The professionals at NOAA much less so.

The Signal and the Noise - Why So Many Predictions Fail, But Some Don't by Nate Silver has a great discussion and explanation of this topic.
and it sounds like the latest euro  
Jon : 1/26/2015 12:55 pm : link
is even further west ...
I use nothing but weather.gov but cant find the maps  
jlukes : 1/26/2015 12:55 pm : link
link?
ask and  
Jon : 1/26/2015 12:57 pm : link
you shall
receive. - ( New Window )
The other bad news:  
manh george : 1/26/2015 1:01 pm : link
not a hint of warm weather to melt any of this shit once it hits, at least through Sunday.
All  
DanMetroMan : 1/26/2015 1:07 pm : link
cars off the streets by 11 PM in NYC per DiBlasio.
Yeah Art...  
Run with 81 : 1/26/2015 1:11 pm : link
I've been all over this storm since yesterday afternoon, Following total predictions & just this morning (say around your 10am) they moved the 24-36" line east. It was (all last night for me) over Middletown area (other side of the Hudson River line) Now it looks like only Eastern CT & most of LI are in the 24-36 range!!!! Boston looks like they're going to get POUNDED!! South Eastern Dutchess is back to 12-18 (possibly 24 on our Lil mountain in Stormville) so THANK GOD for that! I'll stay on this till it's over or I loose my Cable connection (internet) out there when I won't be able to watch things develope live on my cameras. (have a fully automatic whole house Generator with UPS systems so I never really loose power but Cable conns do get lost... When I loose my "eyes" then I start worrying and calling local friends for updates...
Anyone know  
BobOnLI : 1/26/2015 1:59 pm : link
Is 24-36" the true upper limit for this storm or is it a limit of the software?
Sorry  
BobOnLI : 1/26/2015 2:00 pm : link
Just saw there is a possible 36-48 band.
See, Bob?  
manh george : 1/26/2015 2:04 pm : link
You were able to find some good news.
However  
BobOnLI : 1/26/2015 2:05 pm : link
Don't the folks at NOAA know you shouldn't have overlapping categories when displaying info. Should be labeled 24-<36, 36-<48 and 48+.
RE: However  
Randy in CT : 1/26/2015 2:11 pm : link
In comment 12110054 BobOnLI said:
Quote:
Don't the folks at NOAA know you shouldn't have overlapping categories when displaying info. Should be labeled 24-<36, 36-<48 and 48+.
Give me an example of how that will matter?
Bob  
manh george : 1/26/2015 2:11 pm : link
You're the statistical Phd. However, when you are talking about a range of estimates, rather than a range of results, does it really matter?
RE: However  
arcarsenal : 1/26/2015 2:14 pm : link
In comment 12110054 BobOnLI said:
Quote:
Don't the folks at NOAA know you shouldn't have overlapping categories when displaying info. Should be labeled 24-<36, 36-<48 and 48+.


LOL, I can't think of a single instance where this would matter one freaking iota.

People nitpick the weirdest things.
mg  
BobOnLI : 1/26/2015 2:28 pm : link
It matters if you are trying to publish in a peer-reviewed journal. Anyway, it is just sloppy, looks unprofessional.
RE: However  
ron mexico : 1/26/2015 2:33 pm : link
In comment 12110054 BobOnLI said:
Quote:
Don't the folks at NOAA know you shouldn't have overlapping categories when displaying info. Should be labeled 24-<36, 36-<48 and 48+.


wouldn't the 36 - <48 category include everything <48 thus overlapping with all categories other than 48+?

The dash  
BobOnLI : 1/26/2015 2:36 pm : link
should be read as "to".
I am confident that it would look a lot less unprofessional...  
manh george : 1/26/2015 2:38 pm : link
if the weather were 74 degrees and sunny.
What a joke  
Mark from Jersey : 1/27/2015 6:45 am : link
Watching the pree trying to save face this morning is comical. Why is there still a travel ban in place?
yep, this ine developed late and busted for our area  
Jon : 1/27/2015 7:31 am : link
now on the the Feb 1st storm....
For Sun/Mon's,  
Jon : 1/30/2015 5:50 am : link
the guidance has been waffling somewhat with how far north this thing is coming. The latest GFS has a nice track to lay a decent amount of snow across the region. 3 days out, I think it's safe to start posting some snow maps...enjoy.

Fox5  
natefit : 1/30/2015 8:06 am : link
says 4-8 inches with CNJ getting the most
Dump the snow  
UConn4523 : 1/30/2015 8:11 am : link
working from home vs working at the office is a no brainer. Sign me up for 6" plus in CT
Can you provide a forcast  
Jon : 1/30/2015 8:11 am : link
From a source that's not biased? ;)
I have 3" on the ground this morning  
Jon : 1/30/2015 8:13 am : link
And it's still snowing at a good clip
Didn't it snow the Monday after the SB last year too?  
arcarsenal : 1/30/2015 8:32 am : link
.
RE: I have 3  
Del Shofner : 1/30/2015 8:36 am : link
In comment 12115543 Jon said:
Quote:
And it's still snowing at a good clip


same here, in northern Dutchess County.
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