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NFT: Weatherman: Monday storm for Long Island?

Danny Kanell : 1/24/2015 9:10 am
Just saw some rumblings on some Facebook weather pages I follow that the Monday storm is trending towards a blizzard type storm for LI, NYC and coastal areas. Nothing looks definitive though and wanted to get your thoughts.

Thanks!


(Fap - Tom [Giants Fan])
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I guess the main issue is the commute home tomorrow in NYC  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 1/25/2015 4:46 pm : link
The weather says it will only be a couple of inches, but officials are making it seem like everyone's commutes will be treacherous.
RE: Anyone know  
Jon : 1/25/2015 4:50 pm : link
In comment 12108755 MookGiants said:
Quote:
what weather forecast is for philly tomorrow? And north through allentown up to scranton. Taking my nephew to royal rumble tonight and plan on driving back home in morning


If you're driving back in the morning , you'll be fine. This storm starts tomorrow afternoon/evening.
RE: Anyone know  
dpinzow : 1/25/2015 5:09 pm : link
In comment 12108755 MookGiants said:
Quote:
what weather forecast is for philly tomorrow? And north through allentown up to scranton. Taking my nephew to royal rumble tonight and plan on driving back home in morning


You should be OK tonight...tomorrow morning you might get snow from the clipper, but go early tomorrow to avoid the worst.

Enjoy the Rumble Mook
I shot you an e-mail Mook  
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 5:33 pm : link
for everyone else there nothing new to cover at this point, get your supplies set if not tonight by early Monday. Monday night this storm cranks up, and Tuesday the area will be generally impassable.
RE: RE: Any input on Philly/Bucks County?  
Dave in PA : 1/25/2015 6:55 pm : link
In comment 12108759 Mike in Philly said:
Quote:
In comment 12108427 Dave in PA said:


Quote:


from tomorrow morning on through tuesday? Thanks guys


Here you go Dave:

Sorry for the size of the image. BTW, I'm in Doylestown. How close are you?


Thanks Mike. I'm in Warminster, but just got home from one of my favorite Doylestown restaurants, Domani Star.
Regarding the hockey stuff  
Mike in Long Beach : 1/25/2015 6:56 pm : link
Which I know a few people currently posting on this thread are interested in, back 2010 when a smaller, but still significant storm hit the northeast, the NHL refused a request from the Islanders to cancel the game.

This was based on the fact that both team's players were in Long Island and ready to play.

I have no idea idea what time the boys from both teams get back from the All Star game tonight, but that may impact the game being played.
Link - ( New Window )
What a waste it would be for DeBlasio to keep the schools open.  
manh george : 1/25/2015 6:57 pm : link
Under his leadership, there isn't any learning going on anyway, except for isolated groups who will do fine working from their computers.

Better: keep the libraries open.
the schools can be open on Monday  
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 6:59 pm : link
Tuesday not so much, and with the extent of cleanup needed probably not Wednesday and potentially even Thursday too. The city is in the you gonna get it hard swath of snowfall.
Still not getting a good reading about NEPA  
dep026 : 1/25/2015 7:06 pm : link
Some are saying 8 inches, others are saying only just a few.
RE: Anyone know  
hudson : 1/25/2015 7:17 pm : link
In comment 12108755 MookGiants said:
Quote:
what weather forecast is for philly tomorrow? And north through allentown up to scranton. Taking my nephew to royal rumble tonight and plan on driving back home in morning

Not much snow in Yinzville from this storm.
RE: hudson  
hudson : 1/25/2015 7:18 pm : link
In comment 12108640 Jon said:
Quote:
... ... - ( New Window )

Thanks Jon...how the hell you'd do that?
hudson - go the homepage of your local NWS office  
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 7:21 pm : link
the links to their accumulation maps during events like this are often right there. For NYC, the office page is linked below. If that's not where you need to be, click one of the arrows surrounding the zoom out button and that will move you to the next office in the direction chosen.
link - ( New Window )
Lehigh Valley  
feelflows : 1/25/2015 7:23 pm : link
Is on the edge, so predictions will be inconsistent at best. WFMZ said we are getting a few inches, but they rely on AccuWeather.


Be prepared for 10" and be thankful if we get less.
So do we call this a Josh Brown track?  
SwirlingEddie : 1/25/2015 7:32 pm : link
Be safe everyone and good luck!
just another map  
Jon : 1/25/2015 7:48 pm : link
from weatherbell


interactive link - ( New Window )
RE: What a waste it would be for DeBlasio to keep the schools open.  
jeff57 : 1/25/2015 7:58 pm : link
In comment 12108880 manh george said:
Quote:
Under his leadership, there isn't any learning going on anyway, except for isolated groups who will do fine working from their computers.

Better: keep the libraries open.


Can always count on someone to try to turn a weather thread into a political thread.
Grocery shelves  
natefit : 1/25/2015 8:34 pm : link
already being stripped bare Im hearing. Get what you need asap or risk starvation.
I wasn't trying to turn it into a political thread.  
manh george : 1/25/2015 8:38 pm : link
I was trying to complement its primary content with an "I hate Bill DeBlasio" sub thread.

I would hate him just as much if he were a Republican, a communist or an anarchist. (I'm not sure, is that how you spell antiChrist?) I mostly vote Democratic, so this is personal, not really political.
I just realized  
djm : 1/25/2015 8:53 pm : link
We only have 9 eggs left in the house. It might be time to panic.
Hype or prep?  
natefit : 1/25/2015 8:57 pm : link
"This could be the biggest snowstorm in the history of this city," Mayor Bill de Blasio told reporters Sunday. "My message for New Yorkers is prepare for something worse than we have ever seen before."
not hype, when the NWS is putting out the 24-36" swath  
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 8:59 pm : link
it's deadly serious. NYC is going to get hit very hard.
Oh  
Hammer : 1/25/2015 9:52 pm : link
Boy
I know it's going to be hell getting around the city and very  
JayBinQueens : 1/25/2015 10:08 pm : link
dangerous conditions...
but....

is anyone else excited??
damn each time I log into weather.com  
Stu11 : 1/25/2015 10:10 pm : link
the total gets larger! I'm in Rockland about 20 miles north of the NYC. work at a school in N. Westchester. They called, already cancelled Monday and Tuesday.
RE: I know it's going to be hell getting around the city and very  
arcarsenal : 1/25/2015 10:12 pm : link
In comment 12109155 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
dangerous conditions...
but....

is anyone else excited??


Depends. If I lose my power I will be pretty pissed.

If I just wind up with a couple snow days off work and get to catch up on some TV series and sleep in, then I can sign up for that.

What WM said  
ColHowPepper : 1/25/2015 10:12 pm : link
Never before seen accumulation forecasts for NYC that are the same as for Lower Hudson Valley and SE CT at that those levels. Even in 1978, when, as I recall, we had two blockbuster blizzards, one in late January and the second in early March as I recall 19" and 27" respectively), the forecasts "spared" NYC, relatively speaking.
Some parts, especially LI...  
manh george : 1/25/2015 10:23 pm : link
they are talking 45 mph sustained winds and gusts to hurricane strength. The power outages could last a week or more. When you put 30" of snow on a tree and than blast it with that much wind the tree just falls over, taking power lines with it.

There will be deaths, too. Scary shit.
RE: hudson - go the homepage of your local NWS office  
hudson : 1/25/2015 11:11 pm : link
In comment 12108902 WeatherMan said:
Quote:
the links to their accumulation maps during events like this are often right there. For NYC, the office page is linked below. If that's not where you need to be, click one of the arrows surrounding the zoom out button and that will move you to the next office in the direction chosen. link - ( New Window )
thanks WM.
Was able to get it for NY, BOS, but not DC.
Weather Man...  
Run with 81 : 1/26/2015 2:09 am : link
Heavy snow or light?? I'm in Europe ATM, my house is near Carmel NY (Stormville to be exact!) Not sure I'm going to find any local kids to pull the accumulations off the roof!
Man I'm worried!!! Plowing is arranged, roof pulls not so much!! Anyone near me & wants to earn some cash to pull snow off roofs? (I have the roof rake available) 2 houses... (main & cottage)
Its 'da bomb'!  
natefit : 1/26/2015 8:24 am : link
In simple terms, bombogenesis is the equivalent of a "meteorological bomb," according to The Weather Channel's Kevin Roth. It occurs when a storm's area of lowest pressure experiences a rapid drop of more than 24 milibars in 24 hours. "This turns a routine storm into an intense storm very quickly," Roth told NBC News.

Link - ( New Window )
Any updates from Weatherman?  
spike : 1/26/2015 10:02 am : link
What is the expected snow total for NYC ?
RE: Weather Man...  
ArtVandelay : 1/26/2015 10:08 am : link
In comment 12109429 Run with 81 said:
Quote:
Heavy snow or light?? I'm in Europe ATM, my house is near Carmel NY (Stormville to be exact!) Not sure I'm going to find any local kids to pull the accumulations off the roof!
Man I'm worried!!! Plowing is arranged, roof pulls not so much!! Anyone near me & wants to earn some cash to pull snow off roofs? (I have the roof rake available) 2 houses... (main & cottage)


My parents live in Stormville. The totals should be a little lower north of the city and away from the coast. Last I checked Southern Dutchess County was in the 12-18 range but a slight shift can change that. I'll keep you posted
We're fucked  
Maximus, Esq. : 1/26/2015 10:14 am : link
Dammit  
hudson : 1/26/2015 12:35 pm : link
Now, I can't get the graphic of snowfall predictions on the NWS NYC or BOS page.
Looks like totals have dropped a bit for NYC and westward  
jlukes : 1/26/2015 12:39 pm : link
still in the foot range, but not as much over 20"
Nevermind  
hudson : 1/26/2015 12:41 pm : link
Man, you would think they would have a direct link under "Maps".
Very user unfriendly despite great info.

WM-any reason why weather.gov is much better than weather.com?

So jealous of you guys up north, we're being gyped in the mid atlantic.
RE: Looks like totals have dropped a bit for NYC and westward  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 1/26/2015 12:42 pm : link
In comment 12109904 jlukes said:
Quote:
still in the foot range, but not as much over 20"


Yeah now more 12-24 than 24+
RE: Looks like totals have dropped a bit for NYC and westward  
Jon : 1/26/2015 12:44 pm : link
In comment 12109904 jlukes said:
Quote:
still in the foot range, but not as much over 20"


according to whom?
latest from noaa  
Jon : 1/26/2015 12:46 pm : link
Boston still looks to be...  
manh george : 1/26/2015 12:49 pm : link
ground zero.

The center of the storm moved eastward, but that still leaves Boston close to the middle of the worst weather, with NYC on the edge. My son is in Hartford. Looks as if they are going to get their asses kicked, too. Down the middle of this oval, the winds are going to be fierce. 20"+ of snow and gusts to 70 MPH could mean record tree-loss and power outages in the worst hit areas.

Mt holly  
Jon : 1/26/2015 12:50 pm : link
RE: Nevermind  
SwirlingEddie : 1/26/2015 12:51 pm : link
In comment 12109912 hudson said:
Quote:
Man, you would think they would have a direct link under "Maps".
Very user unfriendly despite great info.

WM-any reason why weather.gov is much better than weather.com?

So jealous of you guys up north, we're being gyped in the mid atlantic.


Private forecasters are incented by ratings, clicks, share, noteriety, etc to overstate and overdramatize. The professionals at NOAA much less so.

The Signal and the Noise - Why So Many Predictions Fail, But Some Don't by Nate Silver has a great discussion and explanation of this topic.
and it sounds like the latest euro  
Jon : 1/26/2015 12:55 pm : link
is even further west ...
I use nothing but weather.gov but cant find the maps  
jlukes : 1/26/2015 12:55 pm : link
link?
ask and  
Jon : 1/26/2015 12:57 pm : link
you shall
receive. - ( New Window )
The other bad news:  
manh george : 1/26/2015 1:01 pm : link
not a hint of warm weather to melt any of this shit once it hits, at least through Sunday.
All  
DanMetroMan : 1/26/2015 1:07 pm : link
cars off the streets by 11 PM in NYC per DiBlasio.
Yeah Art...  
Run with 81 : 1/26/2015 1:11 pm : link
I've been all over this storm since yesterday afternoon, Following total predictions & just this morning (say around your 10am) they moved the 24-36" line east. It was (all last night for me) over Middletown area (other side of the Hudson River line) Now it looks like only Eastern CT & most of LI are in the 24-36 range!!!! Boston looks like they're going to get POUNDED!! South Eastern Dutchess is back to 12-18 (possibly 24 on our Lil mountain in Stormville) so THANK GOD for that! I'll stay on this till it's over or I loose my Cable connection (internet) out there when I won't be able to watch things develope live on my cameras. (have a fully automatic whole house Generator with UPS systems so I never really loose power but Cable conns do get lost... When I loose my "eyes" then I start worrying and calling local friends for updates...
Anyone know  
BobOnLI : 1/26/2015 1:59 pm : link
Is 24-36" the true upper limit for this storm or is it a limit of the software?
Sorry  
BobOnLI : 1/26/2015 2:00 pm : link
Just saw there is a possible 36-48 band.
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