Most of the night was rain. It switched to snow a few hours ago, but it's pretty light. Supposed to go back to rain this afternoon before switching to snow this evening. Full day of work/school.
I live up in Columbia. My kids' school is already closed.
We got 3 inches overnight and snowing heavily again this morning. We are expected to get 9-14 inches before it is over tomorrow night.....Be safe everyone!!!!
Most of the night was rain. It switched to snow a few hours ago, but it's pretty light. Supposed to go back to rain this afternoon before switching to snow this evening. Full day of work/school.
I live up in Columbia. My kids' school is already closed.
Depressing.
I was also surprised to see snow (even if it was just light snow) this morning when I stepped out of my house. I live near Annapolis and work towards Columbia, so I'm seeing the same thing as you.
I just took away an inch of snow that was convinced it wanted to stick...
And if you thought yesterday was bad, try going into a store today. Had to go in and pick up a prescription, and it was every man for himself in there. You'd think something deadly had gone viral from the looks of that place.
This would be a perfect day off tomorrow - kids off, bought a couple of new sleds, have a nice new bottle of scotch waiting for me and a recently made batch of chili. Instead, I'll be WFH on stupid phone calls all day.
Damn you VPN, damn you to hell.
I don't know if you guys checked out that wind map earlier
but there were 2 distinct lows ovser the carolinas that look like they have finally combined into one...This thing is ready to take off...
Jon, is that surface level wind map for real and in real time, or is what shows there a depiction of wind (speeds) at some earlier point in time? Whichever, it's pretty cool.
Snow hasn't topped 2 inches in a storm yet. Last night was a letdown, and the clipper they was forecasting to being a few inches tonight likely won't accumulate at all.
I teach in DC. We had a full day today, and looks like a full day tomorrow as well.
Over at a friend's in Jersey City. About 4 inches on the ground from earlier. Path is getting shut down so probably crashing here. The city is a total mess, sidewalks hurried and nothing is open.
the major accumulations are just starting in eastern NE, and will be building in overnight and continuing tomorrow. Today was the prelude, tonight is the bomb.
WeatherMan - any accumulation predictions for the Newark area
it seems like meteorologists are all over the place. NOAA seems to stand firm at 18-24", while weather.com is predicting under a foot. News 12 is saying 12-20". Just curious what your thoughts are.
when we all wake up tomorrow. Here in Brooklyn, they are predicting blizzard conditions to start at 2 am (previously 10 pm). I don't think it's going to be quite the monster that was predicted, at least not here, but I also think we haven't seen the real storm yet.
still looking double digits for most, but they won't be measuring it in feet in NJ, that'll be further east. If I had to pick an epicenter with the highest totals right now I'd go with Worcester MA.
CNN and some of the networks are following your lead from years ago by drilling down into the different models (European, a second, and the third--latest greatest with the impact of banding on local snow accumulation totals).
NWS Regional Map still shows most of the Metro NYC area at 24" - 36", starting at a line just east of Manhattan Is. and showing that total for all Long Is, North Shore, most of CT, about half of Westchester, with far northern and western Westchester at 18" - 24".
So, these totals, and the disparities between the regional map and the local forecasts, seem to be a function of storm track and selection and interpretation of the models, no?
Hope your move went smoothly and that the dissertation is too.
had high totals for my area until around noon. Now 4-8 tonight and tomorrow total. Everyone else (weather.gov, accuweather) is 15-20+. Chatham, NJ.
Right? Was just saying this to my wife....They have a blizzard warning up that says 18-24, then you click another link that says 5-8 tonight, 1-3 tomorrow.
I'm gonna be pissed if we don't get a shit-ton of snow.
They're saying 5-8 overnight and an additional 3-5 tomorrow. There's probably like 5 on the ground right now. I think we're going to get a significant total.. but it's starting to seem like all the "biggest storm ever" "crippling" and "historic" talk may have been a bit much?
I don't care. Classes are canceled for tomorrow and no work. I as of right now have next to nothing. Just a dusting and had to squint at my neighbors lawn to see any snow. They say the big deal is coming after midnight.
They're saying 5-8 overnight and an additional 3-5 tomorrow. There's probably like 5 on the ground right now. I think we're going to get a significant total.. but it's starting to seem like all the "biggest storm ever" "crippling" and "historic" talk may have been a bit much?
Like anything, if you don't exaggerate a bit you'll have people not take it seriously and put themselves (and likely others) in danger. Better to be safe than sorry and overstate the totals, to get everyone's expectations in line.
They're saying 5-8 overnight and an additional 3-5 tomorrow. There's probably like 5 on the ground right now. I think we're going to get a significant total.. but it's starting to seem like all the "biggest storm ever" "crippling" and "historic" talk may have been a bit much?
Like anything, if you don't exaggerate a bit you'll have people not take it seriously and put themselves (and likely others) in danger. Better to be safe than sorry and overstate the totals, to get everyone's expectations in line.
I understand this because of Sandy specifically... BUT... the media used words like "crippling" and "historic" and potentially "worst ever" for this. If this doesn't turn out to be bad, how seriously are people going to take the next one? I don't think you can declare an upcoming storm any worse than they did with this one. They basically shut the entire city down, said we could be looking at close to 3 feet, etc..
This storm isn't over yet and I imagine in some areas it will still be significant.. but. We'll see.
Watching all the weather forecasters with egg on their face. The storm did a Norwood. Now we have a driving ban. Expecting it to be flurries going into noon. Could see this last night that it wasn't going to hit Jersey hard.
Hope the media and weather people got their kicks because the next time a storm is coming and they say it's going to be "historic" and "crippling", no one is going to take them seriously.
is nothing worse than people complaining about storms being overhyped. Places on Long Island, Connecticut and further north got crushed. Be thankful that it wasn't as bad in your area as projected. These are based on statistical modeling but weather can always change. This is still going to cost cities (taxpayers) and businesses an unfathomable amount of money in emergency services and lost income. Cities have no incentive to close down their transportation services which generate revenue. The airline industry has no incentive to cancel 4500 flights in the area. People will still get into accidents. Again, remember that some places still got hit hard and have to worry, again, about coastal flooding.
Be thankful if the weather and damage were not as severe as originally anticipated.
Generator is still waiting
Extra Gas is still waiting
Chains have been installed on my snowblower
My new headlamp, flashlights, etc are all set
Bathtub is filled with water
I'm thankful there isn't 30 inches on the ground and I also realize weather patterns can change. I'm also glad my wife won't be driving today, it's still shitty out.
The mayor of NY got on camera and told everyone this was going to be "historically bad" and potentially the "worst snowstorm to EVER hit NY"
What do you think is going to happen the next time a forecast has us getting a lot of snow? People are going to say "yeah, you said it was going to be so terrible last time... "
That's the problem. Outlets need to be careful with how they bill these storms.
There was still obviously a storm and a lot of snow (I actually have close to 20") but the news yesterday would have had you believe that everyone was going to be trapped indoors for a week.
It'll take me all of 10 minutes to dig my truck out.
where are the stranded roadside people freezing to death? The fallen trees crushing people to death while they sleep? The massive coronaries that occurred while shoveling 3 ft of snow? This is bullshit :)
The wind is blowing the snow flurries off my driveway
shows a likelihood of the amount of snow it did with up to 70 mph winds, then such catastrophe is possible. Cities and states have to prepare for the worst when there is a strong enough likelihood of that happening. If cities and states don't take it seriously, and the worst case happens, then people lay blame for not being warned. On top of that, people not taking the warnings seriously will obstruct emergency services from doing their jobs.
If people don't want to take the next warnings seriously, then they are foolish and deserve their fate.
There had been so many "this storm is going to be so bad!" warnings that fell flat over the years that when Sandy came around, people were almost just conditioned to think that it was going to be a lot of bark and not a lot of bite.
Millions of dollars lost, millions of people inconvenienced, schools needlessly closed, businesses needlessly closed, all for nothing. Weather people create the hype, the media blows it up and we all swallow it hook line and sinker. From the weatherman on tv with his sleeves all rolled up like he's doing real work to the bloated assholes talking about "historic" and "blizzard conditions" it's funny to see how ridiculous these things turn out.
guy down the block is using a leaf blower to brush off his cars in like swirling 15 mph winds. Likely not as effective as he intended. Snowing again where I am in NNJ.
that there's a probability of a major snowstorm coming, but there's no denying that the news outlets whip up hysteria. This morning, they were still hyping it mercilessly. reporters standing behind snow banks (obviously plowed) to make the snowfall look deeper. showing plows scraping an inch or two of snow and proclaiming that plows are struggling to keep up. They do the same thing for the first part of snow season, no matter how much snow is forecast. As the season goes on, and people start tuning out to the hype, with the attendant lower ratings, they stop hyping so much and start reporting.
post-Sandy psych mentality at play here in NYC. People are still traumatized and understandably so. Overreaction if you will, is a natural part of the process. Reminds me of how they were patting down every old lady at the airport post 9-11.
and some spots are getting absolutely burried with snow right? It was not over hyped, the bullseye moved overnight due to reasons nobody saw coming untill late yeserday afternoon/evening.
is that there was an Inverted Trough located in central PA that dumped almost a foot of snow, but in the meantime it sucked out all the moisture out in the storm, exempt for those in the bullseye.
post-Sandy psych mentality at play here in NYC. People are still traumatized and understandably so. Overreaction if you will, is a natural part of the process. Reminds me of how they were patting down every old lady at the airport post 9-11.
Exactly right. Too much fear, too much government.
Stay safe and hope your area copes without too much disruption. Milford looks to be a bit SE of Worcester, where WM predicted the storm would bullseye,
and a bit SW of Norwood, MA, where this thread has settled on as the assessment of the blizzard forecasts for Metro NYC.
Instead of the 24" - 36" predicted for NE Westchester, we're at ~11", but the snow is coming down here late morning harder than it has pretty much since this storm first hit, because it's clear that not much accumulated over night.
RE: RE: Can't get a 12 hour forecast correct but they have global warming
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
Weather =/= climate.
l believe in global warming but have little faith in these long term climate models. They are a lot harder to accurately predict than a short term weather event.
RE: Can't get a 12 hour forecast correct but they have global warming
Stay safe and hope your area copes without too much disruption. Milford looks to be a bit SE of Worcester, where WM predicted the storm would bullseye,
and a bit SW of Norwood, MA, where this thread has settled on as the assessment of the blizzard forecasts for Metro NYC.
Instead of the 24" - 36" predicted for NE Westchester, we're at ~11", but the snow is coming down here late morning harder than it has pretty much since this storm first hit, because it's clear that not much accumulated over night.
Thanks CHP, we're fine, thanks for asking. Hardest thing is clearing space for the dog to go out. All said and done this will probably be in the top 5 storms in history for Worcester.
We were thinking about that for our dog too and began tromping a path back around the house several times yesterday and last night so it wouldn't be a snow wall. She also had surgery (ACL and knee joint displacement) so wading through 24" would have been tough. Turns out not to have been necessary.
We were all geared up, but this storm for us is neither historic nor crippling, but seems as though those descriptors are apt up there. Power outages in MA and RI seem to be quite limited, hope it stays that way.
1) A lot of places actually did get large accumulations of snow.
2) The wind and cold were still brutal last night.
3) Complaining that it overhyped is just ignorance. A lot of qualified people read the radar and everything else and legitimately expected much worse. It is a blessing it wasn't as bad as predicted, plain and simple.
4) Anyone who ignores the next storm warning is a moron. These are independent events. That is exactly what happened with Hurricane Sandy. Because the previous year's hurricane wasn't what it was predicted to be, too many people ignored the Sandy warnings, which were spot on. The people who ignored these warnings put first responders in harms way to try save them,
You can be as sarcastic as you want, but the predictions from so many qualified professionals were epic. It wasn't to get people to overreact, but rather to be prepared. I for one am glad NYC was prepared for the worst. That said, I am surprised they didn't wait a little longer to make certain decisions.
That's just it. It's not like the entire storm was a dud and they were way off. The storm still dumped epic amounts of snow; it just did so a little off track, as the storm moved from the predicted path.
I just feel like the tracks that had it slamming us got pushed...
And the models that had the storm pushing east were completely ignored. I never got the vibe from any of the outlets that there was a chance most of the tri-state area could get clipped and get a less "epic" event. It seemed to be something everyone was etching with certainty which is something you can't really do with weather.
For me, this storm was almost identical to the one we got in February of 2013. Lots of snow? Yes. Inconvenient? Yes. Epic and crippling and historic? No.
It's not so much about "ignoring" warnings I just think there are levels of preparedness and accommodations you make in advance. The way this storm was billed I didn't think the roads would even be passable for a while.
They don't forcast using models alone. Especially when they can make real time observations. I'm sure they looked at the models, but maybe it wasn't jiving what they were observing, and discounted them. Not everything has to be a scandel.
the forecasts were all hype, take it up with one "WeatherMan" :
not hype, when the NWS is putting out the 24-36" swath
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 8:59 pm : link : reply
it's deadly serious. NYC is going to get hit very hard.
our very own weatherman was "overhyping" this storm for the NYC metro area up until about 8:30 last night when he concluded the storm started to form further east.
Quote:
it has formed a bit further east
WeatherMan : 1/26/2015 8:32 pm : link : reply
still looking double digits for most, but they won't be measuring it in feet in NJ, that'll be further east. If I had to pick an epicenter with the highest totals right now I'd go with Worcester MA.
You know, in some cases people underestimated Sandy's path - just ask anyone who lives in Gerritsen Beach in Brooklyn, where it was determined they were safe from rising flood levels and should not evacuate. They got hit really badly, some still haven't recovered.
1) No, you cannot treat every weather event like the apocalypse, because if you do, people stop believing, and don't do the things they need to that constitute real work to prepare. That was a problem in the south with hurricanes, especially before Katrina. It still is, but less so.
2) One of the biggest embarrassments about the forecasting here was not the initial forecasts--they got the location of the center of the storm wrong, and these things wobble. No biggie, and it's a mess where it did hit/is hitting. 24"+ already in Eastern LI. Some parts of Mass. getting 18-30" with heavy snow still coming.
The bigger embarrassment is that late last night, when the TV forecasters who were discussing this thing real time were saying that the major bands of snow were never going to make it as far east as NYC and NJ, there were vast numbers of forecasts, even such as Accuweather, the Weather Channel and the National Weather Service and the leadership of various governments that had warnings posted discussing record accumulation. Conditions changed, and many of the tracking systems and parts of government leadership didn't respond, partly because the change happened at night.
Because all of the people in NYC were forced into a State of Emergency for 8" of snow.
What do you think they're going to do next time?
Exaggeration just to force the public to respond a certain way is the exact thing that is wrong with all of this. Just be as truthful as possible and let people decide on their own how seriously to take it.
last yr everyone busted his chops for keeping schools open with a ft of snow. Today everyone is busting his chops for overreacting and closing everything down last night lol.
Why the forecasts turned out to be so wrong on the western side.
So, what caused the storm to drop less snow along the I-95 corridor in the mid-Atlantic from Philadelphia to New York City?
According to AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "The storm was more compact than we thought it would get. As a result, the back edge of the heavy snow and strong winds were farther to the east."
Once the storm hit the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, it began to strengthen tremendously and move steadily northeastward, rather than stall. The storm also began to track a few dozen miles farther east than speculated on Sunday.
Had the storm swelled larger by 50 miles farther west, blizzard conditions would have reached New York City, and a heavy snow accumulation would have edged into the Philadelphia area.
Because of the storm's compact size, relatively speaking, the heavy wet snow was limited to extreme southeastern New England.
Far Eastern Long Island got two feet of dry powder? I doubt it.
Because all of the people in NYC were forced into a State of Emergency for 8" of snow.
What do you think they're going to do next time?
Exaggeration just to force the public to respond a certain way is the exact thing that is wrong with all of this. Just be as truthful as possible and let people decide on their own how seriously to take it.
You can't let people decide on their own, because then it does hit hard and you have emergency responders having to risk their lives to save these idiots.
last yr everyone busted his chops for keeping schools open with a ft of snow. Today everyone is busting his chops for overreacting and closing everything down last night lol.
at least the focus is off of his tenuous relationship with the police now.
to read on Facebook, everyone bellyaching about the storm or all the losers from high school sad over Blink-182.
How old are you? I'm 26 and blink was one of the essential bands as I was growing up and going through adolescence. Don't really see the problem with people talking about the breakup of one of their favorite and most revered childhood bands.
to read on Facebook, everyone bellyaching about the storm or all the losers from high school sad over Blink-182.
How old are you? I'm 26 and blink was one of the essential bands as I was growing up and going through adolescence. Don't really see the problem with people talking about the breakup of one of their favorite and most revered childhood bands.
I'm 27 going on 28 in April, don't you ever talk to your edler like that again, son. Yeah. That's what the depressing part is. Blink-182 is considered essential. What were those lyrics to that one song about fucking dogs?
RE: media hyped things instead getting facts together
The storm IS as strong as predicted. It just shifted from where it hit. It would be irresponsible to "overhype" the possibility of being missed, as the change happened after everyone had a chance to prepare.
In Rochester, if we get a huge storm prediction, and it mercifully misses us, we're fucking glad of it.
That freak storm that hit Buffalo in November collapsed roof on houses and manufacturing facilities. It's fortunate the casualties weren't higher.
And everyone remembers the huge snow storm that Mayor Lindsay failed to prepare for, knocking out power and stranding millions in Queens, Brooklyn and Manhattan. No mayor wants to have to eat the responsibility for a major clusterfuck like that.
The last major snow storm predicted for NYC in 2006 proved to be all it was expected to be.
The people who didn't prepare for Sandy are fucking idiots
that given how much snow Eastern LI got, and the magnitude of peak winds in the 50+ mph range, there weren't any significant power outages.
From Newsday:
Quote:
Public Service Electric and Gas Long Island reported that as of 9 a.m. Tuesday, only 150 of its 1.1 million customers were without power. Spokesman Jeffrey Weir said the utility had restored power to about 7,000 customers throughout the blizzard. Weir also said extra personnel brought in from around the state and elsewhere to assist with the storm were being sent home.
What a dud this storm turned out to be for us here in Northern NJ
I got about 3 to 4 inches. I'm just glad I got the day off from work. I'm 32 now, and the biggest blizzard I remember was in 1996. I was I'm 7th grade and I could remember the snow completely covering cars. I would say we got around 24 to 36 inches then.
that we had that NYC was going to be spared the brunt of it was DeBlasio nattering about a historic storm - guy is pretty much on the wrong side of everything. Wish I knew who he liked in the Super Bowl...
RE: Asses, be GLAD you didn't get hit like they're getting hit in E. LI
The storm IS as strong as predicted. It just shifted from where it hit. It would be irresponsible to "overhype" the possibility of being missed, as the change happened after everyone had a chance to prepare.
In Rochester, if we get a huge storm prediction, and it mercifully misses us, we're fucking glad of it.
That freak storm that hit Buffalo in November collapsed roof on houses and manufacturing facilities. It's fortunate the casualties weren't higher.
And everyone remembers the huge snow storm that Mayor Lindsay failed to prepare for, knocking out power and stranding millions in Queens, Brooklyn and Manhattan. No mayor wants to have to eat the responsibility for a major clusterfuck like that.
The last major snow storm predicted for NYC in 2006 proved to be all it was expected to be.
I AM on Eastern LI. I got over 20" and probably got hit as hard as anyone in NY.
It still wasn't a huge deal. We've had comparable snow storms over the last couple of years. There was nothing "crippling" about it. People are outside shoveling, getting their cars out, the roads are already clearing, no one is stuck inside with no way out. Barely anyone is without power. It wasn't that bad. Everything will return to normal within a day.
Very light and fluffy. I got a ton of shoveling done within an hour.. whole walk is clear, my truck is clear, I can drive out. Piece of cake. I've dealt with much heavier, much worse snow.
it let you live this time, but the next time around, you might not be so lucky with Snowmageddon.
Seriously - this is Irene and Sandy all over again. A lot of people felt Irene was overhyped (and based on the results, it was), and so they walked into Sandy with some trepidation. That's why arc is where he is on this point, and I don't disagree, I just think that the real outlets (NOAA, gov) thought this was going to be serious enough that they took real precautions to put people out of harms way and rightfully so. That a bunch of media outlets ran with it until people were whipped into a frenzy isn't preventable, unfortunately.
RE: RE: Can't get a 12 hour forecast correct but they have global warming
I don't know where on LI you are but here on the far East end the top 14" was fluffy while the bottom 8" was pretty heavy. For the first time in 15 years my street wasn't plowed. They had to send a Bobcat to clear it this morning and he worked at least 4 hours to clear a single lane on less than a mile of street. Took me 3 hrs to clear a path to the street from my back door and I still can't get to my front door because there is too much snow piled against the storm door to open it. I'll go out later and clear it from the outside.
In sum, this is the worst I've seen in 15 years and the snow hasn't stopped falling yet. Fortunately, only an inch or two more is expected.
RE: RE: RE: Can't get a 12 hour forecast correct but they have global warming
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
Weather =/= climate.
l believe in global warming but have little faith in these long term climate models. They are a lot harder to accurately predict than a short term weather event.
Considering they botched a 12 hour forecast, i'd say they have a longer way to go.
Yeah, I know what you're saying. There's just something about the way the outlets run with the "story" that rubs me the wrong way. It's like you have to pick through who's just trying to generate views and clicks with gaudy, "scary" headlines and who is giving accurate/honest reports. I realize there's always potential for error in these forecasts.
It is what it is. If there are calls for legitimately bad weather, I'm not going to roll my eyes and intentionally put myself in harms way, but.. obviously not everyone is as smart as me. So I get it.
that's going to have folks angry, but it happens sometimes. It's not a case of one model hit and another didn't, the tracks were strongly clustered, while that's usually a high confidence indicator it's not perfect. The 20"+ totals did occur, just not in all of the areas forecast. The state of the science isn't exact, myself included.
33" in a small portion of Massachusetts. 30.5" in Windham, Ct. 26" in Boston, the third largest ever. They got a lot right, just not the geographical size of the storm or the location of the Western edge.
Btw, as noted in the article, one blast of 106 mph winds hit Cape Cod Bay. Link - ( New Window )
that's going to have folks angry, but it happens sometimes. It's not a case of one model hit and another didn't, the tracks were strongly clustered, while that's usually a high confidence indicator it's not perfect. The 20"+ totals did occur, just not in all of the areas forecast. The state of the science isn't exact, myself included.
I think it's very close for a storm of this size. I'm with those in favor of preparing for the worst even if it doesn't quite happen that way.
Also, it was only in NYC that Irene was a dud (thus leading to complacency for Sandi). Irene was a total disaster for areas further north, including the Catskills area and north of that, and portions of Vermont.
it was a real bastard inland. While the miss was small it was significant, a bust of that magnitude in a major metro area is tough to stomach. It further highlights the need for improved forecasting, we can always get better. A new supercomputer is being brought online this year that will help things, but further investment in observational satellite programs is direly needed and long overdue.
if they were smart, which most of ours aren't, would be reminding people that their neighbors to the east got their asses kicked. Third largest snow total in Boston since they started keeping track ain't chickenfeed.
Btw, one other point: the projected track of really high snow totals was always very narrow. I think that is one thing they got wrong: not reminding people that a track that narrow is subject to a lot of wobble.
Hopefully the photos in the papers and on-line over the next day or so will show people that this wasn't a matter of overkill, so much as missed targeting.
One of the stories I will always remember about that storm was from the Mount Snow/Wilmington area in Vermont. There was a general store in Wilmington that had a mark about 5' high which showed the flood level from the former strongest storm in history, in 1938. Irene smashed that general store off its hinges and floated the pieces down the river.
spent over an hour shoveling my car out of the road
three of the next four nights. Only one day in the next 10 where it is supposed to break 32 degrees, briefly. It's going to suck there for quite a while. They got scrod.
I don't know where on LI you are but here on the far East end the top 14" was fluffy while the bottom 8" was pretty heavy. For the first time in 15 years my street wasn't plowed. They had to send a Bobcat to clear it this morning and he worked at least 4 hours to clear a single lane on less than a mile of street. Took me 3 hrs to clear a path to the street from my back door and I still can't get to my front door because there is too much snow piled against the storm door to open it. I'll go out later and clear it from the outside.
In sum, this is the worst I've seen in 15 years and the snow hasn't stopped falling yet. Fortunately, only an inch or two more is expected.
Bob, if you don't mind me asking, what's do you consider the 'far east end'? I've been looking at summer places on the North Fork (anything past Matittuck) and one thing I wondered was what happens out there when there's any considerable snowfall. I've asked, and seem to get differing opinions from different realtors.
RE: Boston is supposed to go down to 6 degrees or lower...
three of the next four nights. Only one day in the next 10 where it is supposed to break 32 degrees, briefly. It's going to suck there for quite a while. They got scrod.
There's actually an old joke about a guy asking a cabdriver in Boston where he can get scrod around here.
I know it's too early but meteorologists in Connecticut are already talking about another decent sized snowstorm coming this way this weekend. Any thoughts on it yet?
are talking about a high chance of 8-12" of snow and "wintry mix/ice" for Boston next Monday. Nothing significant on their 10-day forecast for NYC.
I was supposed to go to Boston the past Monday night. Now it's scheduled for Sunday night, Feb. 8th. Seeing 8-9 clients in two days, including one 30 miles north of the city.
I hope that's feasible. Sounds kinda unlikely, because they probably won't get a chance to melt like NYC usually does after a big guy.
I live up in Columbia. My kids' school is already closed.
Depressing.
Commack, NY. Out on Long Island.
Getting worse this evening through tonite...
6"- 12" expected.
This is just the appetizer
UConn, you leaving early today?
Hammer, is it sticking already in Ronkonkoma? I just drove from there to Long Beach. I'm trying to gauge what time to GTF outta here today.
I live up in Columbia. My kids' school is already closed.
Depressing.
I was also surprised to see snow (even if it was just light snow) this morning when I stepped out of my house. I live near Annapolis and work towards Columbia, so I'm seeing the same thing as you.
And if you thought yesterday was bad, try going into a store today. Had to go in and pick up a prescription, and it was every man for himself in there. You'd think something deadly had gone viral from the looks of that place.
Hammer, is it sticking already in Ronkonkoma? I just drove from there to Long Beach. I'm trying to gauge what time to GTF outta here today.
It stuck, but it's stopped for now. Looks like this is the break the news guys were talking about.
All joking aside...hope all you guys will be fine!
surface level wind map - ( New Window )
Damn you VPN, damn you to hell.
link - ( New Window )
No shit, howdy neighbor! I'm in Kings park.
Jon, is that surface level wind map for real and in real time, or is what shows there a depiction of wind (speeds) at some earlier point in time? Whichever, it's pretty cool.
Oh well.
Still kinda interesting.
Oh well.
Still kinda interesting.
Then Peyton would've scored -8 points
Good luck to all those who will be dealing with a real event up north. Stay safe.
I teach in DC. We had a full day today, and looks like a full day tomorrow as well.
Good lord.
NJ.com - ( New Window )
whoaaaaaaaaaa - ( New Window )
NWS Regional Map still shows most of the Metro NYC area at 24" - 36", starting at a line just east of Manhattan Is. and showing that total for all Long Is, North Shore, most of CT, about half of Westchester, with far northern and western Westchester at 18" - 24".
So, these totals, and the disparities between the regional map and the local forecasts, seem to be a function of storm track and selection and interpretation of the models, no?
Hope your move went smoothly and that the dissertation is too.
Right? Was just saying this to my wife....They have a blizzard warning up that says 18-24, then you click another link that says 5-8 tonight, 1-3 tomorrow.
I'm gonna be pissed if we don't get a shit-ton of snow.
And I'm drunk, not that that has anything to do with this post and/or conversation.
Our mayor will be really pissed if we get 3 inches and he closed the schools lol
Like anything, if you don't exaggerate a bit you'll have people not take it seriously and put themselves (and likely others) in danger. Better to be safe than sorry and overstate the totals, to get everyone's expectations in line.
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They're saying 5-8 overnight and an additional 3-5 tomorrow. There's probably like 5 on the ground right now. I think we're going to get a significant total.. but it's starting to seem like all the "biggest storm ever" "crippling" and "historic" talk may have been a bit much?
Like anything, if you don't exaggerate a bit you'll have people not take it seriously and put themselves (and likely others) in danger. Better to be safe than sorry and overstate the totals, to get everyone's expectations in line.
I understand this because of Sandy specifically... BUT... the media used words like "crippling" and "historic" and potentially "worst ever" for this. If this doesn't turn out to be bad, how seriously are people going to take the next one? I don't think you can declare an upcoming storm any worse than they did with this one. They basically shut the entire city down, said we could be looking at close to 3 feet, etc..
This storm isn't over yet and I imagine in some areas it will still be significant.. but. We'll see.
Said it will come down starting at midnight well into tomorrow. Said it was basically call it as it goes storm.
There's barely a coating out there.
So much for 18-24"
if i look outside i'd say about 3-4 inches....but it looks like just a coating...bust.
Downgraded to 4-8, and probably closer to 4 here. Only one who said this thing was drifting further east seemed to be the guy on News 12.
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Be thankful if the weather and damage were not as severe as originally anticipated.
Extra Gas is still waiting
Chains have been installed on my snowblower
My new headlamp, flashlights, etc are all set
Bathtub is filled with water
Ok, where is the snow?
I'm thankful there isn't 30 inches on the ground and I also realize weather patterns can change. I'm also glad my wife won't be driving today, it's still shitty out.
The storm was still huge and the locations that do get the heavy banding are still going to be crippled for the rest of the week.
What do you think is going to happen the next time a forecast has us getting a lot of snow? People are going to say "yeah, you said it was going to be so terrible last time... "
That's the problem. Outlets need to be careful with how they bill these storms.
There was still obviously a storm and a lot of snow (I actually have close to 20") but the news yesterday would have had you believe that everyone was going to be trapped indoors for a week.
It'll take me all of 10 minutes to dig my truck out.
If people don't want to take the next warnings seriously, then they are foolish and deserve their fate.
People do this every year. Be glad there's not huge amounts of damage.
Until Sandy.
And we all know what happened there.
We will be over 3 feet.
the MA forecasts were spot on.
Definitely didnt bust here.
Until Sandy.
And Sandy could have been a lot worse.
Problem is disaster sells. Who would know the name Cantore if it didn't?
When your talking 20 - 50 miles in track can make a big difference, you have to error on the worse scenario side.
It's still an impressive storm though...
Exactly right. Too much fear, too much government.
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
Weather =/= climate.
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
And know you know how the weather and climate works.
and a bit SW of Norwood, MA, where this thread has settled on as the assessment of the blizzard forecasts for Metro NYC.
Instead of the 24" - 36" predicted for NE Westchester, we're at ~11", but the snow is coming down here late morning harder than it has pretty much since this storm first hit, because it's clear that not much accumulated over night.
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covered lol
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
Weather =/= climate.
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
Wow. You need to go back to middle school science class.
and a bit SW of Norwood, MA, where this thread has settled on as the assessment of the blizzard forecasts for Metro NYC.
Instead of the 24" - 36" predicted for NE Westchester, we're at ~11", but the snow is coming down here late morning harder than it has pretty much since this storm first hit, because it's clear that not much accumulated over night.
Thanks CHP, we're fine, thanks for asking. Hardest thing is clearing space for the dog to go out. All said and done this will probably be in the top 5 storms in history for Worcester.
We were all geared up, but this storm for us is neither historic nor crippling, but seems as though those descriptors are apt up there. Power outages in MA and RI seem to be quite limited, hope it stays that way.
2) The wind and cold were still brutal last night.
3) Complaining that it overhyped is just ignorance. A lot of qualified people read the radar and everything else and legitimately expected much worse. It is a blessing it wasn't as bad as predicted, plain and simple.
4) Anyone who ignores the next storm warning is a moron. These are independent events. That is exactly what happened with Hurricane Sandy. Because the previous year's hurricane wasn't what it was predicted to be, too many people ignored the Sandy warnings, which were spot on. The people who ignored these warnings put first responders in harms way to try save them,
no just ones with the capability to dump 30 inches in NYC like this one did near Boston. The bullseye moved last night...time to move on.
For me, this storm was almost identical to the one we got in February of 2013. Lots of snow? Yes. Inconvenient? Yes. Epic and crippling and historic? No.
It's not so much about "ignoring" warnings I just think there are levels of preparedness and accommodations you make in advance. The way this storm was billed I didn't think the roads would even be passable for a while.
The 11pm Fox 5 report still had us getting 14-18....
I just don't buy that they didn't know as of 11-1130 last night that things could change.
Weather.com was the only site that moved off the blizzard thing.
They don't forcast using models alone. Especially when they can make real time observations. I'm sure they looked at the models, but maybe it wasn't jiving what they were observing, and discounted them. Not everything has to be a scandel.
not hype, when the NWS is putting out the 24-36" swath
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 8:59 pm : link : reply
it's deadly serious. NYC is going to get hit very hard.
WeatherMan : 1/26/2015 8:32 pm : link : reply
still looking double digits for most, but they won't be measuring it in feet in NJ, that'll be further east. If I had to pick an epicenter with the highest totals right now I'd go with Worcester MA.
2) One of the biggest embarrassments about the forecasting here was not the initial forecasts--they got the location of the center of the storm wrong, and these things wobble. No biggie, and it's a mess where it did hit/is hitting. 24"+ already in Eastern LI. Some parts of Mass. getting 18-30" with heavy snow still coming.
The bigger embarrassment is that late last night, when the TV forecasters who were discussing this thing real time were saying that the major bands of snow were never going to make it as far east as NYC and NJ, there were vast numbers of forecasts, even such as Accuweather, the Weather Channel and the National Weather Service and the leadership of various governments that had warnings posted discussing record accumulation. Conditions changed, and many of the tracking systems and parts of government leadership didn't respond, partly because the change happened at night.
2 out of 3 ain't bad?
What do you think they're going to do next time?
Exaggeration just to force the public to respond a certain way is the exact thing that is wrong with all of this. Just be as truthful as possible and let people decide on their own how seriously to take it.
The snow is really piling up outside,
I wish you wouldn't make debate you...
So, what caused the storm to drop less snow along the I-95 corridor in the mid-Atlantic from Philadelphia to New York City?
According to AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "The storm was more compact than we thought it would get. As a result, the back edge of the heavy snow and strong winds were farther to the east."
Once the storm hit the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, it began to strengthen tremendously and move steadily northeastward, rather than stall. The storm also began to track a few dozen miles farther east than speculated on Sunday.
Had the storm swelled larger by 50 miles farther west, blizzard conditions would have reached New York City, and a heavy snow accumulation would have edged into the Philadelphia area.
Because of the storm's compact size, relatively speaking, the heavy wet snow was limited to extreme southeastern New England.
Far Eastern Long Island got two feet of dry powder? I doubt it.
What do you think they're going to do next time?
Exaggeration just to force the public to respond a certain way is the exact thing that is wrong with all of this. Just be as truthful as possible and let people decide on their own how seriously to take it.
You can't let people decide on their own, because then it does hit hard and you have emergency responders having to risk their lives to save these idiots.
at least the focus is off of his tenuous relationship with the police now.
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How old are you? I'm 26 and blink was one of the essential bands as I was growing up and going through adolescence. Don't really see the problem with people talking about the breakup of one of their favorite and most revered childhood bands.
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to read on Facebook, everyone bellyaching about the storm or all the losers from high school sad over Blink-182.
How old are you? I'm 26 and blink was one of the essential bands as I was growing up and going through adolescence. Don't really see the problem with people talking about the breakup of one of their favorite and most revered childhood bands.
I'm 27 going on 28 in April, don't you ever talk to your edler like that again, son. Yeah. That's what the depressing part is. Blink-182 is considered essential. What were those lyrics to that one song about fucking dogs?
Hmmm
The storm IS as strong as predicted. It just shifted from where it hit. It would be irresponsible to "overhype" the possibility of being missed, as the change happened after everyone had a chance to prepare.
In Rochester, if we get a huge storm prediction, and it mercifully misses us, we're fucking glad of it.
That freak storm that hit Buffalo in November collapsed roof on houses and manufacturing facilities. It's fortunate the casualties weren't higher.
And everyone remembers the huge snow storm that Mayor Lindsay failed to prepare for, knocking out power and stranding millions in Queens, Brooklyn and Manhattan. No mayor wants to have to eat the responsibility for a major clusterfuck like that.
The last major snow storm predicted for NYC in 2006 proved to be all it was expected to be.
It was the one time I appreciated the fat thug Christie yelling at people to "Get the HELL OFF THE BEACH!"
From Newsday:
The storm IS as strong as predicted. It just shifted from where it hit. It would be irresponsible to "overhype" the possibility of being missed, as the change happened after everyone had a chance to prepare.
In Rochester, if we get a huge storm prediction, and it mercifully misses us, we're fucking glad of it.
That freak storm that hit Buffalo in November collapsed roof on houses and manufacturing facilities. It's fortunate the casualties weren't higher.
And everyone remembers the huge snow storm that Mayor Lindsay failed to prepare for, knocking out power and stranding millions in Queens, Brooklyn and Manhattan. No mayor wants to have to eat the responsibility for a major clusterfuck like that.
The last major snow storm predicted for NYC in 2006 proved to be all it was expected to be.
I AM on Eastern LI. I got over 20" and probably got hit as hard as anyone in NY.
It still wasn't a huge deal. We've had comparable snow storms over the last couple of years. There was nothing "crippling" about it. People are outside shoveling, getting their cars out, the roads are already clearing, no one is stuck inside with no way out. Barely anyone is without power. It wasn't that bad. Everything will return to normal within a day.
Is that right? The power outage total is really surprisingly low.
Seriously - this is Irene and Sandy all over again. A lot of people felt Irene was overhyped (and based on the results, it was), and so they walked into Sandy with some trepidation. That's why arc is where he is on this point, and I don't disagree, I just think that the real outlets (NOAA, gov) thought this was going to be serious enough that they took real precautions to put people out of harms way and rightfully so. That a bunch of media outlets ran with it until people were whipped into a frenzy isn't preventable, unfortunately.
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covered lol
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
Wow. You need to go back to middle school science class.
some of you shouldn't take everything so literally as the analogy includes adament parties claiming expertise on guesswork.
In sum, this is the worst I've seen in 15 years and the snow hasn't stopped falling yet. Fortunately, only an inch or two more is expected.
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In comment 12111044 Giants2012 said:
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covered lol
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
Weather =/= climate.
l believe in global warming but have little faith in these long term climate models. They are a lot harder to accurately predict than a short term weather event.
Considering they botched a 12 hour forecast, i'd say they have a longer way to go.
It is what it is. If there are calls for legitimately bad weather, I'm not going to roll my eyes and intentionally put myself in harms way, but.. obviously not everyone is as smart as me. So I get it.
(Suck it, Mook)
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33" in a small portion of Massachusetts. 30.5" in Windham, Ct. 26" in Boston, the third largest ever. They got a lot right, just not the geographical size of the storm or the location of the Western edge.
Btw, as noted in the article, one blast of 106 mph winds hit Cape Cod Bay.
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I think it's very close for a storm of this size. I'm with those in favor of preparing for the worst even if it doesn't quite happen that way.
Also, it was only in NYC that Irene was a dud (thus leading to complacency for Sandi). Irene was a total disaster for areas further north, including the Catskills area and north of that, and portions of Vermont.
They just canceled school for us for a 2nd day. That's is extremely rare in MA.
I live in Worcester county, and have lived in New England most of my life and I might have seen this much snow from one storm once or twice.
Btw, one other point: the projected track of really high snow totals was always very narrow. I think that is one thing they got wrong: not reminding people that a track that narrow is subject to a lot of wobble.
Hopefully the photos in the papers and on-line over the next day or so will show people that this wasn't a matter of overkill, so much as missed targeting.
Guess i'm avoiding Boston this week. That is significant.
In sum, this is the worst I've seen in 15 years and the snow hasn't stopped falling yet. Fortunately, only an inch or two more is expected.
Bob, if you don't mind me asking, what's do you consider the 'far east end'? I've been looking at summer places on the North Fork (anything past Matittuck) and one thing I wondered was what happens out there when there's any considerable snowfall. I've asked, and seem to get differing opinions from different realtors.
There's actually an old joke about a guy asking a cabdriver in Boston where he can get scrod around here.
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Despite NYC I'm going to go on ahead and say I nailed that part head on last night.
Guess i'm avoiding Boston this week. That is significant.
MOTHER NATURE is punishing the Patriots for Deflategate
MOTHER NATURE is punishing the Patriots for Deflategate
maybe the Pats' fans but the football team flew to Arizona before the storm hit.
Thanks
I was supposed to go to Boston the past Monday night. Now it's scheduled for Sunday night, Feb. 8th. Seeing 8-9 clients in two days, including one 30 miles north of the city.
I hope that's feasible. Sounds kinda unlikely, because they probably won't get a chance to melt like NYC usually does after a big guy.