Millions of dollars lost, millions of people inconvenienced, schools needlessly closed, businesses needlessly closed, all for nothing. Weather people create the hype, the media blows it up and we all swallow it hook line and sinker. From the weatherman on tv with his sleeves all rolled up like he's doing real work to the bloated assholes talking about "historic" and "blizzard conditions" it's funny to see how ridiculous these things turn out.
guy down the block is using a leaf blower to brush off his cars in like swirling 15 mph winds. Likely not as effective as he intended. Snowing again where I am in NNJ.
that there's a probability of a major snowstorm coming, but there's no denying that the news outlets whip up hysteria. This morning, they were still hyping it mercilessly. reporters standing behind snow banks (obviously plowed) to make the snowfall look deeper. showing plows scraping an inch or two of snow and proclaiming that plows are struggling to keep up. They do the same thing for the first part of snow season, no matter how much snow is forecast. As the season goes on, and people start tuning out to the hype, with the attendant lower ratings, they stop hyping so much and start reporting.
post-Sandy psych mentality at play here in NYC. People are still traumatized and understandably so. Overreaction if you will, is a natural part of the process. Reminds me of how they were patting down every old lady at the airport post 9-11.
and some spots are getting absolutely burried with snow right? It was not over hyped, the bullseye moved overnight due to reasons nobody saw coming untill late yeserday afternoon/evening.
is that there was an Inverted Trough located in central PA that dumped almost a foot of snow, but in the meantime it sucked out all the moisture out in the storm, exempt for those in the bullseye.
post-Sandy psych mentality at play here in NYC. People are still traumatized and understandably so. Overreaction if you will, is a natural part of the process. Reminds me of how they were patting down every old lady at the airport post 9-11.
Exactly right. Too much fear, too much government.
Stay safe and hope your area copes without too much disruption. Milford looks to be a bit SE of Worcester, where WM predicted the storm would bullseye,
and a bit SW of Norwood, MA, where this thread has settled on as the assessment of the blizzard forecasts for Metro NYC.
Instead of the 24" - 36" predicted for NE Westchester, we're at ~11", but the snow is coming down here late morning harder than it has pretty much since this storm first hit, because it's clear that not much accumulated over night.
RE: RE: Can't get a 12 hour forecast correct but they have global warming
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
Weather =/= climate.
l believe in global warming but have little faith in these long term climate models. They are a lot harder to accurately predict than a short term weather event.
RE: Can't get a 12 hour forecast correct but they have global warming
Stay safe and hope your area copes without too much disruption. Milford looks to be a bit SE of Worcester, where WM predicted the storm would bullseye,
and a bit SW of Norwood, MA, where this thread has settled on as the assessment of the blizzard forecasts for Metro NYC.
Instead of the 24" - 36" predicted for NE Westchester, we're at ~11", but the snow is coming down here late morning harder than it has pretty much since this storm first hit, because it's clear that not much accumulated over night.
Thanks CHP, we're fine, thanks for asking. Hardest thing is clearing space for the dog to go out. All said and done this will probably be in the top 5 storms in history for Worcester.
We were thinking about that for our dog too and began tromping a path back around the house several times yesterday and last night so it wouldn't be a snow wall. She also had surgery (ACL and knee joint displacement) so wading through 24" would have been tough. Turns out not to have been necessary.
We were all geared up, but this storm for us is neither historic nor crippling, but seems as though those descriptors are apt up there. Power outages in MA and RI seem to be quite limited, hope it stays that way.
1) A lot of places actually did get large accumulations of snow.
2) The wind and cold were still brutal last night.
3) Complaining that it overhyped is just ignorance. A lot of qualified people read the radar and everything else and legitimately expected much worse. It is a blessing it wasn't as bad as predicted, plain and simple.
4) Anyone who ignores the next storm warning is a moron. These are independent events. That is exactly what happened with Hurricane Sandy. Because the previous year's hurricane wasn't what it was predicted to be, too many people ignored the Sandy warnings, which were spot on. The people who ignored these warnings put first responders in harms way to try save them,
You can be as sarcastic as you want, but the predictions from so many qualified professionals were epic. It wasn't to get people to overreact, but rather to be prepared. I for one am glad NYC was prepared for the worst. That said, I am surprised they didn't wait a little longer to make certain decisions.
That's just it. It's not like the entire storm was a dud and they were way off. The storm still dumped epic amounts of snow; it just did so a little off track, as the storm moved from the predicted path.
I just feel like the tracks that had it slamming us got pushed...
And the models that had the storm pushing east were completely ignored. I never got the vibe from any of the outlets that there was a chance most of the tri-state area could get clipped and get a less "epic" event. It seemed to be something everyone was etching with certainty which is something you can't really do with weather.
For me, this storm was almost identical to the one we got in February of 2013. Lots of snow? Yes. Inconvenient? Yes. Epic and crippling and historic? No.
It's not so much about "ignoring" warnings I just think there are levels of preparedness and accommodations you make in advance. The way this storm was billed I didn't think the roads would even be passable for a while.
They don't forcast using models alone. Especially when they can make real time observations. I'm sure they looked at the models, but maybe it wasn't jiving what they were observing, and discounted them. Not everything has to be a scandel.
the forecasts were all hype, take it up with one "WeatherMan" :
not hype, when the NWS is putting out the 24-36" swath
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 8:59 pm : link : reply
it's deadly serious. NYC is going to get hit very hard.
our very own weatherman was "overhyping" this storm for the NYC metro area up until about 8:30 last night when he concluded the storm started to form further east.
Quote:
it has formed a bit further east
WeatherMan : 1/26/2015 8:32 pm : link : reply
still looking double digits for most, but they won't be measuring it in feet in NJ, that'll be further east. If I had to pick an epicenter with the highest totals right now I'd go with Worcester MA.
You know, in some cases people underestimated Sandy's path - just ask anyone who lives in Gerritsen Beach in Brooklyn, where it was determined they were safe from rising flood levels and should not evacuate. They got hit really badly, some still haven't recovered.
1) No, you cannot treat every weather event like the apocalypse, because if you do, people stop believing, and don't do the things they need to that constitute real work to prepare. That was a problem in the south with hurricanes, especially before Katrina. It still is, but less so.
2) One of the biggest embarrassments about the forecasting here was not the initial forecasts--they got the location of the center of the storm wrong, and these things wobble. No biggie, and it's a mess where it did hit/is hitting. 24"+ already in Eastern LI. Some parts of Mass. getting 18-30" with heavy snow still coming.
The bigger embarrassment is that late last night, when the TV forecasters who were discussing this thing real time were saying that the major bands of snow were never going to make it as far east as NYC and NJ, there were vast numbers of forecasts, even such as Accuweather, the Weather Channel and the National Weather Service and the leadership of various governments that had warnings posted discussing record accumulation. Conditions changed, and many of the tracking systems and parts of government leadership didn't respond, partly because the change happened at night.
Because all of the people in NYC were forced into a State of Emergency for 8" of snow.
What do you think they're going to do next time?
Exaggeration just to force the public to respond a certain way is the exact thing that is wrong with all of this. Just be as truthful as possible and let people decide on their own how seriously to take it.
last yr everyone busted his chops for keeping schools open with a ft of snow. Today everyone is busting his chops for overreacting and closing everything down last night lol.
Why the forecasts turned out to be so wrong on the western side.
So, what caused the storm to drop less snow along the I-95 corridor in the mid-Atlantic from Philadelphia to New York City?
According to AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "The storm was more compact than we thought it would get. As a result, the back edge of the heavy snow and strong winds were farther to the east."
Once the storm hit the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, it began to strengthen tremendously and move steadily northeastward, rather than stall. The storm also began to track a few dozen miles farther east than speculated on Sunday.
Had the storm swelled larger by 50 miles farther west, blizzard conditions would have reached New York City, and a heavy snow accumulation would have edged into the Philadelphia area.
Because of the storm's compact size, relatively speaking, the heavy wet snow was limited to extreme southeastern New England.
Far Eastern Long Island got two feet of dry powder? I doubt it.
Because all of the people in NYC were forced into a State of Emergency for 8" of snow.
What do you think they're going to do next time?
Exaggeration just to force the public to respond a certain way is the exact thing that is wrong with all of this. Just be as truthful as possible and let people decide on their own how seriously to take it.
You can't let people decide on their own, because then it does hit hard and you have emergency responders having to risk their lives to save these idiots.
last yr everyone busted his chops for keeping schools open with a ft of snow. Today everyone is busting his chops for overreacting and closing everything down last night lol.
at least the focus is off of his tenuous relationship with the police now.
We will be over 3 feet.
the MA forecasts were spot on.
Definitely didnt bust here.
Until Sandy.
And Sandy could have been a lot worse.
Problem is disaster sells. Who would know the name Cantore if it didn't?
When your talking 20 - 50 miles in track can make a big difference, you have to error on the worse scenario side.
It's still an impressive storm though...
Exactly right. Too much fear, too much government.
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
Weather =/= climate.
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
And know you know how the weather and climate works.
and a bit SW of Norwood, MA, where this thread has settled on as the assessment of the blizzard forecasts for Metro NYC.
Instead of the 24" - 36" predicted for NE Westchester, we're at ~11", but the snow is coming down here late morning harder than it has pretty much since this storm first hit, because it's clear that not much accumulated over night.
Quote:
covered lol
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
Weather =/= climate.
I guess missing on a huge storm in NYC is better than getting blindsided by 7 feet in Buffalo.
Wow. You need to go back to middle school science class.
and a bit SW of Norwood, MA, where this thread has settled on as the assessment of the blizzard forecasts for Metro NYC.
Instead of the 24" - 36" predicted for NE Westchester, we're at ~11", but the snow is coming down here late morning harder than it has pretty much since this storm first hit, because it's clear that not much accumulated over night.
Thanks CHP, we're fine, thanks for asking. Hardest thing is clearing space for the dog to go out. All said and done this will probably be in the top 5 storms in history for Worcester.
We were all geared up, but this storm for us is neither historic nor crippling, but seems as though those descriptors are apt up there. Power outages in MA and RI seem to be quite limited, hope it stays that way.
2) The wind and cold were still brutal last night.
3) Complaining that it overhyped is just ignorance. A lot of qualified people read the radar and everything else and legitimately expected much worse. It is a blessing it wasn't as bad as predicted, plain and simple.
4) Anyone who ignores the next storm warning is a moron. These are independent events. That is exactly what happened with Hurricane Sandy. Because the previous year's hurricane wasn't what it was predicted to be, too many people ignored the Sandy warnings, which were spot on. The people who ignored these warnings put first responders in harms way to try save them,
no just ones with the capability to dump 30 inches in NYC like this one did near Boston. The bullseye moved last night...time to move on.
For me, this storm was almost identical to the one we got in February of 2013. Lots of snow? Yes. Inconvenient? Yes. Epic and crippling and historic? No.
It's not so much about "ignoring" warnings I just think there are levels of preparedness and accommodations you make in advance. The way this storm was billed I didn't think the roads would even be passable for a while.
The 11pm Fox 5 report still had us getting 14-18....
I just don't buy that they didn't know as of 11-1130 last night that things could change.
Weather.com was the only site that moved off the blizzard thing.
They don't forcast using models alone. Especially when they can make real time observations. I'm sure they looked at the models, but maybe it wasn't jiving what they were observing, and discounted them. Not everything has to be a scandel.
not hype, when the NWS is putting out the 24-36" swath
WeatherMan : 1/25/2015 8:59 pm : link : reply
it's deadly serious. NYC is going to get hit very hard.
WeatherMan : 1/26/2015 8:32 pm : link : reply
still looking double digits for most, but they won't be measuring it in feet in NJ, that'll be further east. If I had to pick an epicenter with the highest totals right now I'd go with Worcester MA.
2) One of the biggest embarrassments about the forecasting here was not the initial forecasts--they got the location of the center of the storm wrong, and these things wobble. No biggie, and it's a mess where it did hit/is hitting. 24"+ already in Eastern LI. Some parts of Mass. getting 18-30" with heavy snow still coming.
The bigger embarrassment is that late last night, when the TV forecasters who were discussing this thing real time were saying that the major bands of snow were never going to make it as far east as NYC and NJ, there were vast numbers of forecasts, even such as Accuweather, the Weather Channel and the National Weather Service and the leadership of various governments that had warnings posted discussing record accumulation. Conditions changed, and many of the tracking systems and parts of government leadership didn't respond, partly because the change happened at night.
2 out of 3 ain't bad?
What do you think they're going to do next time?
Exaggeration just to force the public to respond a certain way is the exact thing that is wrong with all of this. Just be as truthful as possible and let people decide on their own how seriously to take it.
The snow is really piling up outside,
I wish you wouldn't make debate you...
So, what caused the storm to drop less snow along the I-95 corridor in the mid-Atlantic from Philadelphia to New York City?
According to AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "The storm was more compact than we thought it would get. As a result, the back edge of the heavy snow and strong winds were farther to the east."
Once the storm hit the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, it began to strengthen tremendously and move steadily northeastward, rather than stall. The storm also began to track a few dozen miles farther east than speculated on Sunday.
Had the storm swelled larger by 50 miles farther west, blizzard conditions would have reached New York City, and a heavy snow accumulation would have edged into the Philadelphia area.
Because of the storm's compact size, relatively speaking, the heavy wet snow was limited to extreme southeastern New England.
Far Eastern Long Island got two feet of dry powder? I doubt it.
What do you think they're going to do next time?
Exaggeration just to force the public to respond a certain way is the exact thing that is wrong with all of this. Just be as truthful as possible and let people decide on their own how seriously to take it.
You can't let people decide on their own, because then it does hit hard and you have emergency responders having to risk their lives to save these idiots.
at least the focus is off of his tenuous relationship with the police now.
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