Kiley McDaniel has referred to it as the deepest in baseball, and ranks it at 10th or so overall (he isn't a huge fan of rankings, which in some ways are apples to oranges). It's a very long preview and an excellent read. Link - ( New Window )
You have to love a guy who has the chutzpah to try to rank guys from the majors thru 7/2 signings -- for every team in baseball no less. I have no idea if the Yankees have a good, great, or bad system. But at best all McDaniel can do is regurgitate other people's work product on these players. This is a pretty useless list.
he's one of the handful of guys out there who actually puts the work in. He has seen many of these guys in person at Instructional Leagues and knew most of them long before they'd been linked to the Yankees. You can debate the wisdom of comparing a AAA player to a 16 year old still in the DR and that's all well and good, but McDaniel is the last guy of whom the rest of that is true.
And I don't mean to suggest I agree with what he writes...
a lot of it I disagree with. DBJ, for instance, pulled himself out of the non-prospect category but he's still not a very good prospect. Alexander Palma is a pretty substantial omission to me. But it is original work and there probably aren't ten people not actually employed by the MLB who know the guys from the DSL up to AAA as well as McDaniel does.
he's one of the handful of guys out there who actually puts the work in. He has seen many of these guys in person at Instructional Leagues and knew most of them long before they'd been linked to the Yankees. You can debate the wisdom of comparing a AAA player to a 16 year old still in the DR and that's all well and good, but McDaniel is the last guy of whom the rest of that is true.
I find Kiley's approach to be really refreshing. If you listen to his weekly pods with Carson Cistulli (which aren't for everyone - I love Carson but Fangraphs Audio can be a bit of an acquired taste), Kiley's really honest about when he's seen a guy in person (and if so, he says when, how many times, in what setting) vs. when he's talked to a scout or a scouting director (and if so, how many and how long ago). He also spends a lot of time explaining how he goes about gathering information and how he weights and adjusts the information he receives from others depending on the source and the context of the conversation. All of the process documentation isn't repeated in every organizational overview for each prospect because the articles would never get done (and if they did get done they would be virtually un-readable), but Kiley's about as honest and up-front as you can get when it comes to this kind of exercise.
With respect to the Yankees' ranking, Kiley noted that he'd have them 6th or 7th if they land Moncada, and that they're likely to rank higher a year from now whether they sign Moncada or not.
last year on the international guys, which was taken from him without attribution (he was subscription only at Scout.com at that point) by the national media.
an interesting development re: Moncada. Apparently new regs will cut out the OFAC portion of the path to free agency for Cuban players. But it isn't entirely clear when they will take effect or whether that will speed up or slow down his clearance process. Link - ( New Window )
said he made a few phone calls and that he had been a little too hasty to dismiss Domingo Acevedo and Alexander Palma and that while he wouldn't put Dustin Fowler on there yet because of the corner OF profile that he could understand the sentiment that felt differently.
we really need Judge to deliver. Our hitting prospects have just been such disappointments in recent years. I remember it just like it was yesterday how Austin/Williams/Heathcott were the future of the Yankees. And obviously Montero was supposed to be the best Yanks hitter since atleast Jeter. We desperately need Judge.
I love reading about Severino. Everyone seems so positive about his natural talent. I don't know much about the movement of his pitches, but it sounds like he needs to figure out what he wants to do with his breaking pitch. If he can get a nice slider going along with his legit changeup and his FB, he'd have a nice repertoire. The potential is there.
I love reading about Severino. Everyone seems so positive about his natural talent. I don't know much about the movement of his pitches, but it sounds like he needs to figure out what he wants to do with his breaking pitch. If he can get a nice slider going along with his legit changeup and his FB, he'd have a nice repertoire. The potential is there.
Ideally you'd want that pitch to become two pitches with similar movement but distinct speeds - the mid-80's slider and the low-90's cutter. Even one of those would be sufficient given that he has the plus fastball and plus changeup with velo separation, but if that pitch already flashes plus across a range of velocities, he doesn't necessarily have to pick one velocity over another, he just has to be able to throw a breaker and know where it's going.
but what it really boils down to is that this team ten years ago couldn't buy a role player from the farm. And even though the farm has been more highly regarded for stretches on the basis of a few top guys the farm of the last few years has allowed them to build a bullpen, provided fodder for trades, and given them marginal players that used to require trades and taking on salary and the like. They have struggled to produce front-end starters and above average position players, much less stars, and hopefully that is starting to change, but over the last several years it wasn't as bleak as it was made out to be.
that Moncada, Olivera and Andy Ibanez could be cleared within two weeks if the MLB does as expected and drops the specific license requirement referenced earlier.
If there ever were a time to flex those financial muscles, this is it. Gamble on greatness. Bringing in top talent close to the MLB level would be such a huge shot in the arm for the franchise.
the Dodgers weren't heavy into IFA this year, they're not in the penalty, so they would have to reneg on any 7/2 agreements they made and go without for two years. That's putting a lot of eggs into one basket, especially for a team that has done a lot in IFA over the last decade or so.
who dropped us to 20th despite clear improvements in performance, breakouts and the IFA binge. Rankings don't matter a helluvalot, but this really boils down to Law downgrading the Yanks because he doesn't believe in our best pitching prospect as a starter, even though Severino was a minor consideration in last year's ranking.
the performances of Judge, Bird, Refsnyder, Lindgren, etc should've been enough to at least maintain their ranking. And the latter 2 should contribute to the big club this year while the former 2 have an outside shot of being September call-ups. So it's not like you can use the excuse that all of their top talent is in the lower levels.
there's an outside chance Judge could mash his way to NY, too
Judge does too, but I wouldn't discount Roller, Austin or Flores as injury replacements. Austin can play OF and 1B, while Roller is a little more disposable from a 40-man standpoint because of age and ceiling. I think they'd go with either of them before Judge, who isn't on the 40-man yet, and maybe before Bird as well.
tells you what you need to know about their feelings for Kyle Roller, but they did promote Pirela last year instead of Refsnyder because Pirela was an easier DFA if they needed to.
and thinks it is the deepest system in the majors. Kylie's take is not without its flaws (it is very difficult to "rank" 16 year olds alongside kids in AA/AAA) but he knows the system well from DSL up to AAA and is not nearly as stubborn in regards to his own opinions.
To ask him how he can justify dropping their ranking. Fine, he thinks Severino is going to end up a reliever - that still doesn't explain how on earth this system is worse than it was a year ago, before great seasons by Bird, Refsnyder and Judge, when Tyler Austin was coming off a horrible year, when a bunch of guys got injured.
To ask him how he can justify dropping their ranking. Fine, he thinks Severino is going to end up a reliever - that still doesn't explain how on earth this system is worse than it was a year ago, before great seasons by Bird, Refsnyder and Judge, when Tyler Austin was coming off a horrible year, when a bunch of guys got injured.
I was mistaken, he actually had them ranked at 20 last year so there is no change in the rankings. But he has positive comments about them, referred to injuries as the main culprit. This year his comments are less positive and they haven't moved even though by anyone's accounting the farm was much better in 2014.
his point, quite reasonably, is that it is very speculative, that the success rate of past big bonuses is such that they could end up with zero major leaguers out of that binge and it wouldn't be particularly anomalous. But the rest of it is unreasonable.
are very speculative. He's saying that because he doesn't pay attention to IFA.
Considering their success rate, I'm not sure that's an unreasonable position to take. Once they have a little bit of stateside success, ignoring them looks obtuse. But in the months after signing, less so.
River Ave. Blues @RiverAveBlues 4m4 minutes ago
Aaron Judge (23) and #GREGBIRD (80) the only two Yanks on @keithlaw's top 100 prospects list.
He must think Refsnyder is a AAAA player. Otherwise, I would think someone who just mashed AAA for half a season and profiles as an "average" 2B, would rank as a top 100 prospect.
Law had very good things to say about Bird in chat...
insists that Severino doesn't use his lower body enough to be a starter.
Exact same complaint he has with Molina. In fairness the "scouting community" all mention prospects who don't use it enough VERY rarely make top MLB starters. In fact the one exception brought up recently is Tyson Ross (to be clear I have never seen Severino, I'm not a scout and I'm not saying 1) he can't improve upon this 2) it's even an issue) just saying Law is pretty consistent with this stuff.
through lineups. He sustained his velocity late in games. His results were consistent across three levels. To say you have concerns (violent delivery, variable command, etc) is one thing, but to stake out such a definitive position on a prospect is stubbornness, little more. Which is Law's calling card. He is a worthwhile read, but he is exceedingly slow to change his opinions on players and those opinions are often borderline irrational.
RE: Severino did well the second and third times...
through lineups. He sustained his velocity late in games. His results were consistent across three levels. To say you have concerns (violent delivery, variable command, etc) is one thing, but to stake out such a definitive position on a prospect is stubbornness, little more. Which is Law's calling card. He is a worthwhile read, but he is exceedingly slow to change his opinions on players and those opinions are often borderline irrational.
No disagreement here. He openly ripped Syndergaard's breaking ball and said due to his "wrist dexterity" never would be able to throw a good one once the Mets traded for him and even into mid-season of 2013 (even when the results and scouting reports said it had improved greatly). Now he's his #17 prospect overall
"His curveball, about a grade-35 pitch when he was first drafted by Toronto in 2010, has advanced to be at least solid-average, showing as a 55 in most outings, playing up in particular because he can throw the pitch for strikes."
said there isn't a single successful SP in baseball who uses his lower half as little as Severino and that there are "200" pitchers who are 20 and throw as hard as him.
have those 200 guys put up the stat line he just did at age 20?
said there isn't a single successful SP in baseball who uses his lower half as little as Severino and that there are "200" pitchers who are 20 and throw as hard as him.
Someone asked him about reports that he had improved on that later in the season and he basically said "I saw him 7/29 so there" as though that was the end of the conversation. He's seen him in person once or twice and he knows him well enough to say with certainty he is definitely a reliever.
he's simply a strange dude. That does not mean he's not good at his job, but IMO his various quirks sometime seem to influence his opinions. And this has nothing to do with Severino or his eval of any other yankee over the years. Just something I've noticed.
team again I have to be conservative about their prospects. They seem to have done a great job in these last few drafts and in this IFA period, but a lot of the fruits are still a ways off. Hoping that Judge, Bird and perhaps Refsnyder can show us something in the bigs soon so that we can begin to see the light at the end of the tunnel.
we're usually sellers and no matter what happens we will sell some of these guys too. And they've built enough value that we can get returns for some of them based on where they're at now. In a year or two we'll be in a position to fill remaining holes with some of these guys and that's very important too.
that the Dodgers may balk at giving up the right to sign high-dollar IFAs for the next two years. If true that would leave the Yanks and the Red Sox as the most realistic suitors as long as he is free to sign before 6/15. Now the Sox could be a legit rival, but they have a fair amount of money invested long-term in 2B and 3B, Moncada's likely positions, and there are some whispers that Bogaerts may profile best as a 3B long term. Additionally, a significant number of their top 20 prospects have 3B or middle-IF profiles (Devers, Cecchini, Marrero, Rijo, Coyle and Chavis). Doesn't mean they wouldn't be in, but are they going to make an effective investment of $70-$80 mil? Link - ( New Window )
Joe McCarthy is out 12 weeks for the Hoos. Unfortunate. Also thins out the class of college bats just a little bit.
That's a kick in the balls, isn't it? Back surgery two weeks before the season opener. I guess he's been dealing with a back problem for a while and was trying to avoid the surgery, but it got to the point that he had no other options. This is going to put a lot of pressure on Pavin Smith and Adam Haseley to produce right away as first years.
Yanks to sign Scott Baker to minor league deal per MLBTR
Limited to just 80 IP last year, during which he gave up a whopping 15 HRs (WHIP a solid 1.190, ERA a less solid 5.47 and FIP not much better at 4.78). Pre-injury was a reasonably effective innings-eater whose ERAs were in the Low 4's but for two years in the low 3's. Low risk signing.
Comment From GG
Have you heard from Yankees people that they will be all in on Moncada or is it more speculation at this point?
1:13
Kiley McDaniel: It isnt speculation. Ive been reporting NYY/BOS are legitimately in on Moncada at the highest level since the beginning, then LA recently entered at that level as well, it appears.
Comment From BirdBrain
What are your feelings towards Andy Ibanez?
I find Kiley's approach to be really refreshing. If you listen to his weekly pods with Carson Cistulli (which aren't for everyone - I love Carson but Fangraphs Audio can be a bit of an acquired taste), Kiley's really honest about when he's seen a guy in person (and if so, he says when, how many times, in what setting) vs. when he's talked to a scout or a scouting director (and if so, how many and how long ago). He also spends a lot of time explaining how he goes about gathering information and how he weights and adjusts the information he receives from others depending on the source and the context of the conversation. All of the process documentation isn't repeated in every organizational overview for each prospect because the articles would never get done (and if they did get done they would be virtually un-readable), but Kiley's about as honest and up-front as you can get when it comes to this kind of exercise.
With respect to the Yankees' ranking, Kiley noted that he'd have them 6th or 7th if they land Moncada, and that they're likely to rank higher a year from now whether they sign Moncada or not.
Link - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
I love reading about Severino. Everyone seems so positive about his natural talent. I don't know much about the movement of his pitches, but it sounds like he needs to figure out what he wants to do with his breaking pitch. If he can get a nice slider going along with his legit changeup and his FB, he'd have a nice repertoire. The potential is there.
Ideally you'd want that pitch to become two pitches with similar movement but distinct speeds - the mid-80's slider and the low-90's cutter. Even one of those would be sufficient given that he has the plus fastball and plus changeup with velo separation, but if that pitch already flashes plus across a range of velocities, he doesn't necessarily have to pick one velocity over another, he just has to be able to throw a breaker and know where it's going.
Definitely possible. I think Bird has a better chance though, if only because it's a virtual lock that Tex will hit the DL at some point.
I was mistaken, he actually had them ranked at 20 last year so there is no change in the rankings. But he has positive comments about them, referred to injuries as the main culprit. This year his comments are less positive and they haven't moved even though by anyone's accounting the farm was much better in 2014.
Aaron Judge (23) and #GREGBIRD (80) the only two Yanks on @keithlaw's top 100 prospects list.
Considering their success rate, I'm not sure that's an unreasonable position to take. Once they have a little bit of stateside success, ignoring them looks obtuse. But in the months after signing, less so.
Severino's trade value is "top 100"
Aaron Judge (23) and #GREGBIRD (80) the only two Yanks on @keithlaw's top 100 prospects list.
He must think Refsnyder is a AAAA player. Otherwise, I would think someone who just mashed AAA for half a season and profiles as an "average" 2B, would rank as a top 100 prospect.
I don't knwo Law's baseball background but the simple fact that there are exceptions to every rule makes that statement suspect
Exact same complaint he has with Molina. In fairness the "scouting community" all mention prospects who don't use it enough VERY rarely make top MLB starters. In fact the one exception brought up recently is Tyson Ross (to be clear I have never seen Severino, I'm not a scout and I'm not saying 1) he can't improve upon this 2) it's even an issue) just saying Law is pretty consistent with this stuff.
I don't knwo Law's baseball background but the simple fact that there are exceptions to every rule makes that statement suspect
Worked in the Blue Jays FO
No disagreement here. He openly ripped Syndergaard's breaking ball and said due to his "wrist dexterity" never would be able to throw a good one once the Mets traded for him and even into mid-season of 2013 (even when the results and scouting reports said it had improved greatly). Now he's his #17 prospect overall
"His curveball, about a grade-35 pitch when he was first drafted by Toronto in 2010, has advanced to be at least solid-average, showing as a 55 in most outings, playing up in particular because he can throw the pitch for strikes."
blake (NC)
ok so no Severino in the top 100? Why
Klaw
(1:06 PM)
Why would he be on there?
Someone asked him about reports that he had improved on that later in the season and he basically said "I saw him 7/29 so there" as though that was the end of the conversation. He's seen him in person once or twice and he knows him well enough to say with certainty he is definitely a reliever.
Link - ( New Window )
That's a kick in the balls, isn't it? Back surgery two weeks before the season opener. I guess he's been dealing with a back problem for a while and was trying to avoid the surgery, but it got to the point that he had no other options. This is going to put a lot of pressure on Pavin Smith and Adam Haseley to produce right away as first years.
Comment From GG
Have you heard from Yankees people that they will be all in on Moncada or is it more speculation at this point?
1:13
Kiley McDaniel: It isnt speculation. Ive been reporting NYY/BOS are legitimately in on Moncada at the highest level since the beginning, then LA recently entered at that level as well, it appears.
Comment From BirdBrain
What are your feelings towards Andy Ibanez?
1:22
Kiley McDaniel: Platonic
Link - ( New Window )
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Source: #Yankees 2014 2nd round pick Jacob Lindgren has been extended an big league camp invite for spring training
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