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Are the Giants a Half Dozen Players Away?

Emil : 1/26/2015 4:58 pm
Hadn't seen this anywhere, but this is a very interesting project. ESPN and PFF collaborate to rate a teams players (Elite, Good, Average, Poor) and determine how many players they are away from a championship. The Giants are purportedly 6 good players away from being championship caliber. Shockingly Graziano doesn't agree with this and thinks the rankings are too generous.

http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/giants/post/_/id/41597/are-the-giants-a-half-dozen-players-away

While I would argue the Giants aren't simply 6 good players away, (which players matters in my view) it is a worthwhile effort to try and bring some comprehensive metric to the question. While most of the placements seem to be fair, I take serious issue with their ranking of Eli as average. Making matters worse, their justification for the ranking makes even less sense.

"QB Eli Manning: Manning set career highs in completion percentage (63.1) and pass attempts (601), while posting his second-highest yardage (4,410) and touchdown totals (30). So it's tempting to claim he should rate higher than average. But I think this is about right, because the Giants' new West Coast scheme didn't ask nearly as much of Manning as the old one did. He showed an encouraging ability to operate the offense, and the fact that he never misses a game obviously provides significant value to the team. But given the Giants' emphasis on the run and the short-passing game, you do wonder whether they need to continue spending 17 percent of their salary cap on the position going forward."

So where do I start. So the scheme didn't ask as much, fair enough, but do they downgrade the performance of other QBs who operate in the West Coast system? I highly doubt it.

Emphasis on the run game! Seriously? Sure they emphasized it all right, to the tune of one of the worst run offenses in the league. To argue that the run game helped Eli Manning and passing game in any way this year requires a real willingness to dispense with the facts. Don't believe your eyes, believe what we say.

On 17% of the CAP, he is the final year of his deal and everyone knows a large contract like Eli's has big balloon payments at the end. Eli will not be 17% of the cap once he gets a new contract. This is also the going rate for superbowl winning QBs, just ask Joe Flacco.

So, I fully disagree with their ranking of Eli as they seem to have cherry picked justifications to knock down his very strong season. But otherwise, I found it interesting a good reading heading into the offseason.
The Missing Pieces - ( New Window )
Their  
AcidTest : 1/26/2015 5:12 pm : link
ratings are ridiculous:

Good: Randle and Fells. Randle came on at the end of the season, but has had a lot of miscommunication INTs with Eli, and double clutches a lot of passes. Fells is a journeyman. Average for both right now, with the understanding that Randle’s performance at the end of the season is encouraging.

Average: Jenkins, Brown, Herzlich, Williams, Demps, Pugh, and Cruz. Everyone but Pugh and Cruz belongs in the Bad category. Pugh gets a pass because he was apparently hurt this season. Cruz is good, assuming he is healthy.

Bad: Donnell and Williams. Donnell can’t block and fumbled, but is a second year UDFA former QB from Grambling State. He made a few plays. Williams needs to improve his vision, but smashes people at the second level, was a rookie, and was playing behind a wretched OL. He is a one cut, downhill runner. Anybody who thought we were getting a shifty back didn’t watch his college tape. He’s as advertised. Put him behind a better OL and he will improve, along with the experience he got in his rookie year. Average for both right now.
one elite player  
blapre74 : 1/26/2015 5:14 pm : link
is about right, but Williams has potential. they need a SS to hit receivers crossing the middle. a lb to help stop the run and to blitz on passing downs, and help on the O line. Six players seems about right. If Reese can duplicate his 2014 draft, they'll get six. :)
While I think  
Emil : 1/26/2015 5:25 pm : link
This is a useful exercise, it underscores my issues with those who just love stats and "analytics." Heck, analytics are great and they can inform decisions, but analytics without context is simply BS. Reuben Randle rates as "good"? On what planet? He had three good games and is at best average right now, with potential.
If you are only looking  
Beer Man : 1/26/2015 5:25 pm : link
at the D
Graziano is well on his journey  
BigBlueCane : 1/26/2015 5:31 pm : link
to be the next NFL ESPN talking head that knows less about his sport then his predecessor.
.  
FStubbs : 1/26/2015 5:36 pm : link
The Giants are about a half dozen Pro Bowl players away. They're about a dozen and a half normal players away.
YES  
old man : 1/26/2015 6:24 pm : link
2 starters on O; 4 starters on D.
Plus: about 10 better 2nd stringers.
We can get 60%+ of that in this FA and draft, including all the starters, if done wisely.
No. I'd say it's more like a dozen or so, minimum.  
Red Dog : 1/26/2015 6:42 pm : link
More like 5 starters or key roll players on offense (OLs, TE, 3rd down back) and about 7 on defense (3 Safeties, at least a couple of LBs, a couple more DLs) plus a punt returner who can scare opponents.
We need  
#10* : 1/26/2015 6:56 pm : link
OT, MLB, S, TE, RB, DT, MLB

Keep our current DE's namely Paul & Ayers. I would put WR but I still like Washington.
The good news:  
manh george : 1/26/2015 7:11 pm : link
The Knicks are no more than a half dozen players away.
YES they are, but there's a catch. The starters all have to  
Marty in Albany : 1/26/2015 7:36 pm : link
stay healthy, because we have no depth.
What are the odds that we stay healthy all season?
RE: YES they are, but there's a catch. The starters all have to  
FStubbs : 1/26/2015 7:46 pm : link
In comment 12110488 Marty in Albany said:
Quote:
stay healthy, because we have no depth.
What are the odds that we stay healthy all season?


The odds that the most injured team in history stays healthy? Not very good ...
Giants are only two players away  
averagejoe : 1/26/2015 7:46 pm : link
LT and Anthony Munoz.

That was easy.
Piling On  
Emil : 1/26/2015 7:48 pm : link
So apparently under their rating scale, Matt Ryan is in the good category. Go compare Eli's stats to Matt Ryan's, they are near identical with the exception of yds (approx 300yd advantage to Ryan), and TDs (2TD edge to Eli). Ints are the same, percentage is comparable with Matt Ryan completing 66% and Eli near 63%. They are in many ways the same guy. Oh and one plays at least 9 games a year in a dome.

I've never really paid much attention to claims of an anti-Eli bias, but after seeing this, I'm starting to think it exists.
Six sounds about right  
JerseyCityJoe : 1/26/2015 7:56 pm : link
On both sides of the ball of course.
Are we talking bodies  
Doomster : 1/26/2015 8:16 pm : link
or guys that can actually play?
I say yes.......if 6 better players get added  
George from PA : 1/26/2015 8:40 pm : link
Without losing any talented players......would certainly put us with the best teams.

OL & WR

S, S, Lber, DT

It depends on the half dozen and whether we keep JPP & Beason.  
Ira : 1/26/2015 8:53 pm : link
As it stands, one good starting left guard, a backup ol, a spped back, a starting olb, and 2 starting safeties will make this team much better. Additionally, if we don't re-sign JPP and/or cut Beason, they will have to be replaced.
RE: Piling On  
Toth029 : 1/26/2015 9:31 pm : link
In comment 12110507 Emil said:
Quote:
So apparently under their rating scale, Matt Ryan is in the good category. Go compare Eli's stats to Matt Ryan's, they are near identical with the exception of yds (approx 300yd advantage to Ryan), and TDs (2TD edge to Eli). Ints are the same, percentage is comparable with Matt Ryan completing 66% and Eli near 63%. They are in many ways the same guy. Oh and one plays at least 9 games a year in a dome.

I've never really paid much attention to claims of an anti-Eli bias, but after seeing this, I'm starting to think it exists.

Matt Ryan had Julio Jones, Devin Hester, Roddy White, and a couple excellent receivin backs to help. But it's a bullshit article, should be to no one's surprise.
The Giants are one player away ... but that player has to be  
baadbill : 1/26/2015 10:17 pm : link
play any defensive position and be rookie of the year in 2015 (or maybe just defensive rookie of year). Beckham (and LT and Simms and Banks) are proof that it isn't just being a starter - it is being a superstar that matters. Someone who is electrifying every snap of every game.

The Giants have that in Beckham - he's the guy they will build their offense around moving forward. Now all they need is a similar impact player to be the foundation of the defense (and not enough to be good - he has to be electrifyingly GREAT). But one player is all they need. The rest is just filler.
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