I am hoping Eli can get somewhere between 35-40 TDs this year. I thought we were a little ground dependent at times. But if Cruz can come back and we shore up the OL, he should put up better numbers.
thanks for the feedback. I kind of went back and forth on Beckham's projections. On one hand it's hard to imagine him having this type of season again, defenses will zone in on him more with a year of tape on him, and cruz could take some of his targets. On the other hand, he had this type of season after missing all of training camp and first 4 games of the season, and having issues with both his hamstrings. Whose to say he can't have a season like this again with a full training camp and being completely healthy.
i made his projections somewhat similar to this season. As for a Q&A if that's something people are interested in, I would be more than happy to do one.
would break-out as a fantasy player. I picked him up in a PPR league after week #4 as an insurance policy for Gronk. Donnell really never got a second gear, even as a bye week replacement, after the spectacular game against the Redskins. I suspect the Giants will look for a #1 TE next season and relegate Donnell to a (very solid) #2 TE.
but I just can't get into Fantasy Football. I hope we don't see many FF articles on BBI (I'd rather see more "regular" analysis).
Watching a game with my son (who won his fantasy league), he (and other FF players) seem to be more interested in rooting for certain players than paying attention to the whole game.
A deep pass where you initially don't know who the receiver is is both a reason to cheer or swear depending on whether "your receiver" catches it (say D. Thomas) versus another player on the same team (say E. Sanders).
I agree with others that maybe a third thread category, FF, should be implemented.
The Crazy part is those projections are actually less production per game than he had in his rookie season with two injured hamstrings. I think it's very doable with the talent he has.
If you guys have any questions regarding any projections. I'm here to answer
I wonder how the other teams will game plan to reduce the target number. I am not optimistic about the Cruz numbers due to first year after an injury but like Randle for next year as possibly a WR3-WR4 level pickup.
I would like to see the Giants invest more in the Oline in free agency and add another WR like Crowder in the draft to create mismatches.
If Eli is throwing for 4500 yards and 32 TD's, the Giants will again have no running game so hopefully Williams is catching a 100 balls/day in the offseason.
is the big wildcard here. If he does not come back effective, I think Randle and possibly DOnnell will be the ones to benefit most. Not to mention randle is in his contract year so he will give it his all.
I personally will have no problems picking OBJ in the 1st or 2nd round (depending on my pick position) next year in pretty much any league that I'm in and I wouldn't mind having Eli on my bench as a strong backup (would be hoping for Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck, maybe Ben Roethlisberger) and I'm still debating on having Cruz on my bench (if he's available) as a matchup-based flex option
Odell pretty much makes everyone on the Giants offense viable in some way or another at this point with his ability to stretch the field and open up the middle of the field for Cruz
If the Giants can make some smart grabs off FA this year or get decent draft picks to fall to them (lookin at you Amari Cooper/Ezekiel Elliott) I can easily see them making a strong playoff run and Eli finishing in the top 5 for fantasy at QB and Odell at #1 (although Antonio Brown could give him a run for his money, dude's crazy)
but I just can't get into Fantasy Football. I hope we don't see many FF articles on BBI (I'd rather see more "regular" analysis).
Watching a game with my son (who won his fantasy league), he (and other FF players) seem to be more interested in rooting for certain players than paying attention to the whole game.
A deep pass where you initially don't know who the receiver is is both a reason to cheer or swear depending on whether "your receiver" catches it (say D. Thomas) versus another player on the same team (say E. Sanders).
I agree with others that maybe a third thread category, FF, should be implemented.
Yet, you clicked on a pinned thread that specifically says FANTASY FOOTBALL. You guys crack me up. Oh, and it's pretty pathetic to click on a thread simply to bitch about said thread. Why not just avoid the thread?
I wonder how the other teams will game plan to reduce the target number. I am not optimistic about the Cruz numbers due to first year after an injury but like Randle for next year as possibly a WR3-WR4 level pickup.
I would like to see the Giants invest more in the Oline in free agency and add another WR like Crowder in the draft to create mismatches.
If Eli is throwing for 4500 yards and 32 TD's, the Giants will again have no running game so hopefully Williams is catching a 100 balls/day in the offseason.
Teams did try to stop him and McAdoo found ways to isolate him by moving him around. Hell, look at Randle's last couple of games. Eli started gaining more trust in him and we were able to take advantage. As soon as Randle started showing what he could do, Beckham came right back and made plays. Beckham was our only threat and he still produced. STL was gunning for him and he just kept plugging away to a huge game. Philly said stopping Beckham was basically their Super Bowl and they still couldn't do it. This was with almost no help. Our running game wasn't anything to write home about. Our TEs were basically nonexistent. Randle had like two awesome games but that was it. I don't think people realize how good Beckham was as well as McAdoo and Eli too. This wasn't some fad like the wildcat where teams really needed an off-season to really prepare for it. It was well known that Beckham was our only threat for basically half a season and teams still couldn't stop him. It is quite remarkable.
You cant have OBJ with those numbers. Actually no WR in the league should as that's a best case scenario and doesn't factor in other scenarios for calculating expected value. What if he misses games again? What if facing more double coverage? What if Eli gets injured. This all drops expected value calculations. I think 100, 1400, 9 is more realistic.
may have been thinking of melvin gordon then, but a solid running back wouldnt be a bad pickup regardless of who it is, what with williams not knowing whether hes capable or not and jennings being injury prone
that him and eli dont get hurt? This is less output per game than he had as a rookie while banged up. Obviously these projections are made with the assumption him and eli will be healthy. If not they would be different.
Of a WR with more of a track record yet only matched the OBJ projection twice in 9 years. You really are only looking at best case and not real projections based on what can be expected. And yes, injuries are part of the game. Need to handicap for that.
Antonio Brown only this year because it's a career year. Can't extrapolate out based on one year.
If you notice, year to year, the top performers rarely repeat being 1 or 2. This year McCoy, Charles, and Peterson projected to lead but only one was in the top 5. Yes, there are other scenarios even for the invincible OBJ.. By extrapolating based on a career year, you are not factoring other scenarios, injury or otherwise. A projection should not be a best case scenario. A best case scenario should be a best case scenario.
had as good a season as beckham had in their rookie season? The answer is none. The only one that ever rivaled was randy moss. I don't think it is a best case and unreasonable to predict a slight worse season than the one he just had at full health and a whole training camp under his belt.
You are stating that the most likely scenario, or expected value, depending on how you make you projection, is that OBJ's season next year will be better than EVERY Randy Moss season except one. it doesn't pass the reality test. He had a rookie year that is better than pretty much every Hall of Famer. Thats not a basis for extrapolation. In that case, you can extrapolate that his career stats will shatter every Jerry Rice record
But excitement and realistic projections are two different things. People were taking about JPP being a 10 year, every year sack champ after year 2 and Kevin Maas being Babe Ruth and Greg Jeffries being the next coming of Pete Rose and Cruz and Nicks winning multiple championships and lighting up opponents in 2012. There are so many different paths these players can take after a break out, crazy year.
Yet, you clicked on a pinned thread that specifically says FANTASY FOOTBALL. You guys crack me up. Oh, and it's pretty pathetic to click on a thread simply to bitch about said thread. Why not just avoid the thread?
I clicked on the thread because it was the first time I recalled Eric ever starting a thread on fantasy football and I was curious as to his take.
I replied to voice my opinion that I'd either prefer to not see any more of these threads from Eric (he has a full time job, a young family and BBI, I'm sure his time is limited and I'd much rather read a piece from him on "real football") or at least be able to more easily screen them out, as one can screen out NFTs if one wishes.
well, I'm glad to find that out. I had ass-u-me d Eric wrote it since he posted it and the post didn't mention it was written by someone else (which I think Eric usually does, such as, "Conor's game review is now up" etc.)
I would still prefer a drop down menu choice to filter out the FF stuff. The "rate my team / draft" stuff before the first game of the season is really lame IMHO.
well, I'm glad to find that out. I had ass-u-me d Eric wrote it since he posted it and the post didn't mention it was written by someone else (which I think Eric usually does, such as, "Conor's game review is now up" etc.)
I would still prefer a drop down menu choice to filter out the FF stuff. The "rate my team / draft" stuff before the first game of the season is really lame IMHO.
Some of the information that is discussed during good FF threads beats whats usually post here. If you prefer it on the NFT site, you might get more receptive responses.
appreciate it. I started writing an intro about the running backs and tight ends but nothing about projections etc. I'll shoot you an email with what I have so far and we can put it together and I'll start working on the Tight Ends.
while I understand you're not a fan of fantasy football. There is a huge correlation between fantasy football and "real football." The stats I posted are projections for what each player would get in "real football" and I then related how that would be in terms of fantasy football. Also, much easier to just ignore a thread you have no interest in.
While I agree that there can be "real football" mixed in with the FF stuff, my experience is that most FF fans don't know much about football. Their knowledge base is limited to the players and statistics that revolve around FF.
The is of course a brilliant marketing strategy by the NFL, bringing in millions of "casual fans" who are only interested in "NFL-lite".
Again, I only clicked on this thread due to my erroneous concern that Eric had gone over to the "dark side" and we'd see fewer "real football" articles from Eric (which are very, very well written which I enjoy very much) and more FF articles. I also wanted an easy way to not have to the thread list cluttered with FF stuff.
Overall, not a big deal and I'll avoid the FF stuff one way or another.
I don't understand that logic at all. Fantasy football makes you more knowledge and involved with other teams players that you normally wouldn't be. I understand you don't like fantasy sports, and you think it's dumb; however your logic doesn't make any sense.
Who do you have for the #1 WR? Antionio Brown?
I have Beckham as an 8th round keeper in my keeper league and I'm feeling pretty good about that.
a Q&A feature would be good, since that's what most people like about fantasy - advice.
1 QB, 1 RB, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 DEF
Watching a game with my son (who won his fantasy league), he (and other FF players) seem to be more interested in rooting for certain players than paying attention to the whole game.
A deep pass where you initially don't know who the receiver is is both a reason to cheer or swear depending on whether "your receiver" catches it (say D. Thomas) versus another player on the same team (say E. Sanders).
I agree with others that maybe a third thread category, FF, should be implemented.
If you guys have any questions regarding any projections. I'm here to answer
I would like to see the Giants invest more in the Oline in free agency and add another WR like Crowder in the draft to create mismatches.
If Eli is throwing for 4500 yards and 32 TD's, the Giants will again have no running game so hopefully Williams is catching a 100 balls/day in the offseason.
Odell pretty much makes everyone on the Giants offense viable in some way or another at this point with his ability to stretch the field and open up the middle of the field for Cruz
If the Giants can make some smart grabs off FA this year or get decent draft picks to fall to them (lookin at you Amari Cooper/Ezekiel Elliott) I can easily see them making a strong playoff run and Eli finishing in the top 5 for fantasy at QB and Odell at #1 (although Antonio Brown could give him a run for his money, dude's crazy)
Watching a game with my son (who won his fantasy league), he (and other FF players) seem to be more interested in rooting for certain players than paying attention to the whole game.
A deep pass where you initially don't know who the receiver is is both a reason to cheer or swear depending on whether "your receiver" catches it (say D. Thomas) versus another player on the same team (say E. Sanders).
I agree with others that maybe a third thread category, FF, should be implemented.
Yet, you clicked on a pinned thread that specifically says FANTASY FOOTBALL. You guys crack me up. Oh, and it's pretty pathetic to click on a thread simply to bitch about said thread. Why not just avoid the thread?
Who do you have for the #1 WR? Antionio Brown?
I have Beckham as an 8th round keeper in my keeper league and I'm feeling pretty good about that.
a Q&A feature would be good, since that's what most people like about fantasy - advice.
You missed the "Z" the first time, right?
I can't picture you saying "cray" so I laughed when I read it.
I would like to see the Giants invest more in the Oline in free agency and add another WR like Crowder in the draft to create mismatches.
If Eli is throwing for 4500 yards and 32 TD's, the Giants will again have no running game so hopefully Williams is catching a 100 balls/day in the offseason.
Teams did try to stop him and McAdoo found ways to isolate him by moving him around. Hell, look at Randle's last couple of games. Eli started gaining more trust in him and we were able to take advantage. As soon as Randle started showing what he could do, Beckham came right back and made plays. Beckham was our only threat and he still produced. STL was gunning for him and he just kept plugging away to a huge game. Philly said stopping Beckham was basically their Super Bowl and they still couldn't do it. This was with almost no help. Our running game wasn't anything to write home about. Our TEs were basically nonexistent. Randle had like two awesome games but that was it. I don't think people realize how good Beckham was as well as McAdoo and Eli too. This wasn't some fad like the wildcat where teams really needed an off-season to really prepare for it. It was well known that Beckham was our only threat for basically half a season and teams still couldn't stop him. It is quite remarkable.
Quote:
are nuts. Not saying they're wrong, just cray if he gets them or even comes close. By far best WR season ever for a Giant - I believe in all stats.
Who do you have for the #1 WR? Antionio Brown?
I have Beckham as an 8th round keeper in my keeper league and I'm feeling pretty good about that.
a Q&A feature would be good, since that's what most people like about fantasy - advice.
You missed the "Z" the first time, right?
I can't picture you saying "cray" so I laughed when I read it.
total typo, my kids would cringe if I said cray intentionally, as would I.
may have been thinking of melvin gordon then, but a solid running back wouldnt be a bad pickup regardless of who it is, what with williams not knowing whether hes capable or not and jennings being injury prone
http://www.nfl.com/player/calvinjohnson/2495647/careerstats
Antonio Brown only this year because it's a career year. Can't extrapolate out based on one year.
If you notice, year to year, the top performers rarely repeat being 1 or 2. This year McCoy, Charles, and Peterson projected to lead but only one was in the top 5. Yes, there are other scenarios even for the invincible OBJ.. By extrapolating based on a career year, you are not factoring other scenarios, injury or otherwise. A projection should not be a best case scenario. A best case scenario should be a best case scenario.
Link - ( New Window )
I clicked on the thread because it was the first time I recalled Eric ever starting a thread on fantasy football and I was curious as to his take.
I replied to voice my opinion that I'd either prefer to not see any more of these threads from Eric (he has a full time job, a young family and BBI, I'm sure his time is limited and I'd much rather read a piece from him on "real football") or at least be able to more easily screen them out, as one can screen out NFTs if one wishes.
I would still prefer a drop down menu choice to filter out the FF stuff. The "rate my team / draft" stuff before the first game of the season is really lame IMHO.
I would still prefer a drop down menu choice to filter out the FF stuff. The "rate my team / draft" stuff before the first game of the season is really lame IMHO.
Some of the information that is discussed during good FF threads beats whats usually post here. If you prefer it on the NFT site, you might get more receptive responses.
Brendan did a great job with this. I will be writing up something for him on the RBs.
The is of course a brilliant marketing strategy by the NFL, bringing in millions of "casual fans" who are only interested in "NFL-lite".
Again, I only clicked on this thread due to my erroneous concern that Eric had gone over to the "dark side" and we'd see fewer "real football" articles from Eric (which are very, very well written which I enjoy very much) and more FF articles. I also wanted an easy way to not have to the thread list cluttered with FF stuff.
Overall, not a big deal and I'll avoid the FF stuff one way or another.