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NFT: Keith Law minor league system rankings

DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 11:16 am
Mets #4, Sox 5, Yankees 20
.  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 11:25 am : link
4. New York Mets

They're deep in arms and bats, especially guys who might play in the middle of the diamond or pitch in the top three spots of a major league rotation. They've kept all their prospects while patiently building, but this is probably the year to swap some of their starting pitching prospect depth for a bat.
I dont subscribe...  
dep026 : 1/28/2015 11:28 am : link
where did he have Philly at?
-47  
Greg from LI : 1/28/2015 11:29 am : link
.
He has never been a believer in Severino...  
Dunedin81 : 1/28/2015 11:30 am : link
whom he believes is a bullpen guy.
Phillies  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 11:31 am : link
25, Braves 6
RE: He has never been a believer in Severino...  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 11:33 am : link
In comment 12112759 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
whom he believes is a bullpen guy.


I'm a big Keith Law guy but he's very "strict" when it comes to deliveries AND very slow to shift his view on guys. He refused to grade Matz as a starter until VERY recently and currently doesn't see Molina as a potential starter due to his delivery. Not saying he's wrong just pointing that out.
Guessing this becomes  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 11:34 am : link
a baseball thread


Janssen is a very nice "low risk" gamble for the Nats. Storen, Janssen, Barrett, Blevins maybe Roark. Pen potentially quite good
Braves will blow this year.  
GiantFilthy : 1/28/2015 11:34 am : link
But crazy turnaround on their farm system in 2 months time.
20?  
Audible : 1/28/2015 11:39 am : link
I'm  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 11:40 am : link
guessing Law puts 6 Mets in his top 100.
Did he have  
pjcas18 : 1/28/2015 11:41 am : link
Betts and Castillo graduate from the Red Sox farm?

Just wondering how the Mets leap-frogged them.

That Sawx talent machine just churns out the superstars  
Greg from LI : 1/28/2015 11:42 am : link
You know, guys like Jackie Bradley.

A whole lot of hype for not a lot of performance. We'll see if Betts can keep it up.
Betts  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 11:43 am : link
isn't rookie eligible ie he's not on his list.


5. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox lost four top-10 prospects to promotions last year, yet they remain a top-5 system, thanks to big moves forward by Blake Swihart, Manuel Margot and Rafael Devers, the latter of whom will play all of 2015 at age 18, and the midseason trade that netted them lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, now their No. 2-ranked pitching prospect.
Greg  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 11:44 am : link
overall I agree Sox prospects can be overrated but I'm buying Betts 100% and I think Swihart should be quite good (though catchers have a crazy bust rate). Rodriguez for 1/2 year of Miller was a nice coup.
I  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 11:45 am : link
fail to see any glaring holes to Mookie Betts game. Maybe he's not an absolute superstar if he's in a corner vs. 2b or CF but he does everything well and some things really well. If he were bigger people would be nuts for him.
RE: That Sawx talent machine just churns out the superstars  
pjcas18 : 1/28/2015 11:46 am : link
In comment 12112792 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
You know, guys like Jackie Bradley.

A whole lot of hype for not a lot of performance. We'll see if Betts can keep it up.


Agree, so many failed prospects. Bogaerts, Betts, Castillo, all look legit to my eye.

though I think Bogaerts is going to have to move off SS which makes his bat less special. No clue where he'd move either with Pedroia and Panda signed for the foreseeable future.

I  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 11:49 am : link
have a real hard time finding anything to pick apart when it comes to Betts. Has hit from day one, walks, doesn't strike out, excellent speed/baserunner, surprising pop for his size and metrics really like his defense. Maybe his arm? I mean he's pretty close to "perfect" without having +++++++ tools across the board.
I was thinking a Betts  
pjcas18 : 1/28/2015 11:55 am : link
for Thor trade made some sense because the Sox flaw will be their starting pitching IMO (unless everyone has great years - it seems like their rotation is 5 #3 pitchers) and they have options in the OF.

But I believe because he's so hyped the Sox think they can get more than Thor for him and that's where I have a problem.

unrelated...I heard on local CBS radio the Sox payroll is approaching 175M for 2015. What happened to the blue collar approach?
..  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 11:57 am : link
Rosario not in @MLBPipeline's top 12 SS prospects #mets
To clarify:  
Greg from LI : 1/28/2015 12:01 pm : link
I'm not saying they don't have any talented guys. I just think that they've been ranked really highly for a while now without a lot of results to back it up, which makes me wonder why they're still #5. This used to happen to the Yankees, and then it swung in the other direction.
RE: I was thinking a Betts  
Greg from LI : 1/28/2015 12:01 pm : link
In comment 12112823 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
unrelated...I heard on local CBS radio the Sox payroll is approaching 175M for 2015. What happened to the blue collar approach?


Hah - the scrappy, gutty, loveable blue collar Sawx image has been a myth for a long time now.
I try to think of 4 boxes for systems  
Deej : 1/28/2015 12:04 pm : link
Close to MLB star potential, close to MLB depth, low system star potential, low system depth.

If you're giving one all in grade, the grade has to weigh these different boxes. So Law and McDaniel could absolutely agree on every player evaluation, but if Law is dismissive of ranking a system based on the strength of low A and below prospects, he'll come out with a bad grade for the Yankees. The Yankee's pipeline for guys who could play in MLB in 2015 and 2016 appears pretty pedestrian. They have just reloaded the lower system though, especially with that incredible international haul.
haha.  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 12:12 pm : link
Karim Garcia re-tweeted me

Karim Garcia retweeted you
53m:
Ex-Met @karimgarcia95 suddenly looks exactly like Jason Giambi (or Judd Nelson) https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8W1p9mCEAMKDA1.jpg:large … #mets
RE: To clarify:  
pjcas18 : 1/28/2015 12:15 pm : link
In comment 12112835 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
I'm not saying they don't have any talented guys. I just think that they've been ranked really highly for a while now without a lot of results to back it up, which makes me wonder why they're still #5. This used to happen to the Yankees, and then it swung in the other direction.


The Mets paid for this too, with guys like Fernando Martinez and Lastings Milledge both being top 20-25 prospects in practically every ranking system and both failing spectacularly.

Not to mention the Pelfrey and Humber debacles.

25 feels a little too low  
dep026 : 1/28/2015 12:16 pm : link
For the phillies but they have a lot to prove. Crawford Nola and franco look to be at least starting caliber MLB ad their floor. Quinn should have a role. All comes down to guys like elfin and others received in trades.
dep  
feelflows : 1/28/2015 12:20 pm : link
from what I saw of Franco at LV this year, he looked legit. He seems very inconsistent, but in a "youth" way, not a Dom Brown way.

he should be a player for your Phils for a long time.
RE: dep  
dep026 : 1/28/2015 12:28 pm : link
In comment 12112878 feelflows said:
Quote:
from what I saw of Franco at LV this year, he looked legit. He seems very inconsistent, but in a "youth" way, not a Dom Brown way.

he should be a player for your Phils for a long time.


You're going to see him there this year because Amaro wants asche to be marketable even though he is a fringe player. Nola should be at Lehigh Valley with a chance to be called up in september.

Hopefully eflin lively and windle can show something. I think quinn is going to surprise people this year too.
So  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 12:33 pm : link
the Mets per MLBpipeline

#4 1b prospect (not looking to debate the 1b stuff again but they don't include guys who will be 1b at the next level so the list is pretty silly)

#4 2b prospect

#8 LHP prospect

#6 C prospect

#2 RHP prospect

Nobody in the top 12 at 3b or SS or OF

I expect 6 to make Law's top 100
He ranked the Yankees higher last year...  
Dunedin81 : 1/28/2015 12:46 pm : link
and their farm system had a generally good year and added a bunch of talent through IFA (even if he doesn't value it highly). This comes down to him being a stubborn ass about Severino.
RE: RE: dep  
feelflows : 1/28/2015 12:54 pm : link
In comment 12112895 dep026 said:
Quote:
In comment 12112878 feelflows said:


Quote:


from what I saw of Franco at LV this year, he looked legit. He seems very inconsistent, but in a "youth" way, not a Dom Brown way.

he should be a player for your Phils for a long time.



You're going to see him there this year because Amaro wants asche to be marketable even though he is a fringe player. Nola should be at Lehigh Valley with a chance to be called up in september.

Hopefully eflin lively and windle can show something. I think quinn is going to surprise people this year too.



I hope so.. I wouldn't mind a playoff game or two.
Keith Law being an ass?  
Greg from LI : 1/28/2015 1:10 pm : link
Nooooooooooo

If he actually ranked the Yankees higher last year, when they were coming off a disasterous season for the farm, then yeah he's just being a cock.
RE: So  
Shecky : 1/28/2015 2:36 pm : link
In comment 12112902 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the Mets per MLBpipeline

Nobody in the top 12 at 3b or SS or OF

I expect 6 to make Law's top 100


FYI, they haven't released their OF rankings yet - so there is still a little hope with Nimmo ;)
RE: RE: So  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 2:37 pm : link
In comment 12113256 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 12112902 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


the Mets per MLBpipeline

Nobody in the top 12 at 3b or SS or OF

I expect 6 to make Law's top 100



FYI, they haven't released their OF rankings yet - so there is still a little hope with Nimmo ;)


No. Callis said neither made it.
He  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 2:38 pm : link
revealed Nimmo and Conforto were not top 10 OF prospects on their list and that Herrera didn't make their top 100 overall.
Didn't know that  
Shecky : 1/28/2015 2:44 pm : link
Thanks
Yeah  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 2:47 pm : link
he went on Brender's podcast I believe
That is a pretty substantial move up for Atlanta  
Jay on the Island : 1/28/2015 3:53 pm : link
granted they are most likely going to be the worst hitting team in baseball and lose 85-95 games. Personally I am happy with what they have done since they were going to lose J Upton and Heyward in free agency and their farm system was ranked in the 20's a year ago. Now they have added a lot of young pitching prospects and a good 3B prospect.
DMM  
dep026 : 1/28/2015 4:05 pm : link
where did he rank Crawford among SS?
Pipeline  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 4:08 pm : link
ranks him 5th

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 60 | Field: 65 | Overall: 60

The Phillies drafted Crawford 16th overall in 2013 and he excelled in his professional debut, winning the Gulf Coast League batting title. He built on that success in his first year of full-season ball and earned a spot in the All-Star Futures Game.

Crawford has an impressive all-around skill set and can impact the game on both sides of the ball. There is no question about his ability to stay at shortstop, as he is a smooth fielder with sure hands, a plus arm and good range. He is a disciplined hitter with good on-base skills and the speed to steal bases.

Crawford had been viewed as Jimmy Rollins' heir apparent from the time he was drafted. Though Rollins is now gone, traded to the Dodgers in the offseason, Crawford still needs a bit more development time before he is ready for the Major Leagues.
Dan  
Jay on the Island : 1/28/2015 4:12 pm : link
What are your thoughts on 2B prospect Jose Peraza?
RE: I was thinking a Betts  
WeatherMan : 1/28/2015 5:09 pm : link
In comment 12112823 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
for Thor trade made some sense because the Sox flaw will be their starting pitching IMO (unless everyone has great years - it seems like their rotation is 5 #3 pitchers) and they have options in the OF.

But I believe because he's so hyped the Sox think they can get more than Thor for him and that's where I have a problem.

unrelated...I heard on local CBS radio the Sox payroll is approaching 175M for 2015. What happened to the blue collar approach?

They are likely going to end up over $200 mil this season, haven't paid the tax in a few years so it'll be at the lowest rate. It's not planned to stay above it long term, but this season with a few higher priced guys on expiring deals they are willing to do it. As far as Betts, he's not going anywhere. That's not a knock on Thor, it's just that young, talented hitting is really damn valuable and doesn't have the elbow risk inherent with any pitcher these days.
RE: Dan  
DanMetroMan : 1/28/2015 5:12 pm : link
In comment 12113452 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
What are your thoughts on 2B prospect Jose Peraza?


Everyone seems to love him. Some thought he was "ready" to open with the Braves but seems like in a throw away year they opted not to rush him and go with Callaspo. Big time speed + speed. personally not huge into guys with zero power but if he's stealing 40-50 bases it likely won't matter much.
I wonder how Nimmo and Conforto would rank  
Deej : 1/28/2015 5:58 pm : link
if they reported a top 10 for just CF and LF (obviously RF too).

I dont really have a problem with top 10 lists, but it would be more helpful if RHP and OF (and arguably SS) were extended to top 20.
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