Eli currently has 259 TDs and 39,755 passing yards.
He needs 141 TDs and 20,245 passing yards to reach 400/60k
If Eli Manning plays 5 more seasons, he would need to average:
141/5 = 28.2 TDs
and
20,245/5 = 4049 Yards
per year over the next 5 years
That seems very easy in this system.
It's highly likely Eli joins the elite 400 TD / 60k Yards club when it's all said and done.
The Giants were more of the hopeless cause the Saints were in 2014, so it wouldn't have mattered what Eli's numbers were to be blunt, even if he was closer to top tier than he ended up, but if they're going to make the playoffs in 2015 with what is likely to again be a below average roster (based on recent track record), his numbers are probably going to be top shelf and he's likely going to have carried them there in a pretty great season, not just been a cog, however key.
Also, "wins" is a stat even if not a good one to judge a QB by.
TDs and yards for QBs has spiked so much in recent years, they are taking on less and less value when making historical comps or building HoF cases.
I'm not an Eli hater, but he's not making the HoF without a third SB and it won't be unfair either. Just way too many turnovers, way too many times whiffing on even making the playoffs, and generally mediocre (at best) rate stats for his era, compared to his peers.
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Wit 2 Super Bowls and 2 Super Bowl MVPs (both against the coach/QB the media now thinks might be the best combo ever, including ruining a potential 19-0 season) and does not make the Hall of Fame that will be a tremendous snub. And even the biggest of Eli haters would have to admit that if they took a step back and were being honest.
TDs and yards for QBs has spiked so much in recent years, they are taking on less and less value when making historical comps or building HoF cases.
I'm not an Eli hater, but he's not making the HoF without a third SB and it won't be unfair either. Just way too many turnovers, way too many times whiffing on even making the playoffs, and generally mediocre (at best) rate stats for his era, compared to his peers.
Because the Read offense he played in had no bearing on his stats
Right just made two of the best post season runs in the history of the game
Yup mediocre.
Insert insult here
The QB competition for his era is insane. You can't be the most turnover prone QB of it, who missed the playoffs as often as you made them, and be as far behind Ben, Rivers, Rodgers, etc when it comes to almost every rate stat as Eli is and make it. Even with two SBs. It doesn't mean he sucks or that, between accomplishment and longevity, that he isn't the best Giants QB of all time; he doesn't and he is even if he's also not going to make it to Canton.
They will be top 10 in total passing yards, and TDs. That's just a conservative estimate. If they both keep playing longer and still productive they can possible get closer to top 5.
Eli is tied for 12 in game winning drives. He is tied for 10th in 4th Q comebacks, and currently has that consecutive game starting streak.
I believe Eli, with more productive years, like this past year can easily get into the HOF. Right now the game is basically padding the shit out of your stats. If you can win a SB along the way, then even better, if not, just keep putting up numbers that add to his resume.
The hardest part was the 2 SB and MVPs. The hardest part is out of the way for him. Now to make that resume even better, just keep adding to it via stats.
Jim Plunkett was the only multiple SB bowl winner, with more INTs than TDS NOT to make it to the HOF. I highly doubt they keep Eli and even Ben out of it.
The QB competition for his era is insane. You can't be the most turnover prone QB of it, who missed the playoffs as often as you made them, and be as far behind Ben, Rivers, Rodgers, etc when it comes to almost every rate stat as Eli is and make it. Even with two SBs. It doesn't mean he sucks or that, between accomplishment and longevity, that he isn't the best Giants QB of all time; he doesn't and he is even if he's also not going to make it to Canton.
Why don't you look up Eli post season stats.
That is the real Eli
Not the stat filling shit in the regular season.
2006 was a clunker? Not saying he was amazing, but I do believe he put us in a position to win that game.
Only part of the story. It should also be noted that Eli currently has thrown for more passing yardage than any active QB other than Peyton, Brees, and Brady, each of whom entered the league 3-6 years ahead of him. That includes Rivers and Roethlisberger...
Pro-Football-Reference.com
The same is also true of passing TD's...
Pro-Football-Reference.com
Rivers, Eli, and Roethlisberger will always be linked together by virtue of the fact that they were selected within eight picks of one another in the first round of the same draft.
The same idea is true of QB's like John Elway and Dan Marino (1983) as well. The fact that Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason, and Ken O'Brien were also selected in the first round of that same draft has no bearing on Elway and Marino's HOF status.
He threw 2 TDs and 1 Int and tied the game before the Eagles went down the field, killed the clock, and kicked an Akers FG.
In other related news, I believe that was it for Tim Lewis who got fired during the offseason and in comes SPags, and we promoted Gilbride for the 2007-08 season.
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generally mediocre (at best) rate stats for his era, compared to his peers.
Only part of the story. It should also be noted that Eli currently has thrown for more passing yardage than any active QB other than Peyton, Brees, and Brady, each of whom entered the league 3-6 years ahead of him. That includes Rivers and Roethlisberger...
Pro-Football-Reference.com
The same is also true of passing TD's...
Pro-Football-Reference.com
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Rivers in comparison to eli is the reason why eli won't make the HOF
Rivers, Eli, and Roethlisberger will always be linked together by virtue of the fact that they were selected within eight picks of one another in the first round of the same draft.
The same idea is true of QB's like John Elway and Dan Marino (1983) as well. The fact that Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason, and Ken O'Brien were also selected in the first round of that same draft has no bearing on Elway and Marino's HOF status.
Eli only has more yards than Ben and Rivers because he's played in more games (which speaks to his durability and lacking of raping over Ben and merely starting earlier than Rivers). Ben and Rivers easily average more YPG (since they took over as starters) at 245.64 and 253.52, respectively, than Eli at 238.05. They also each have significantly better TD% and YPA and yes, winning percentages as starters (Ben at .671, Rivers at .601 and Eli at a falling .559)
It's not just them Eli's "competing" against either (and Rivers isn't going to get in himself, barring an incredibly unlikely SB win; only Ben probably is and, of the non-QBs of that 2004 draft class, possibly Fitzgerald and Wilfork). Rodgers, Brees, Romo, Ryan, Stafford, etc. are going to be in his HoF window and most of the stats aren't going to be kind to him, compared to many of them when it's all said and done.
Legitimately the only argument Eli is going to have in the voters' eyes (fair or not) is the two SBs... and the two SB MVPs aren't likely going to hold that much weight, given how openly no one, from writers to even players on that team, seems to think he deserved them (which is garbage in my opinion, but it's not like my opinion can change how someone like Peter King thinks).
So we had a chance to win the game on the road as big underdogs is that you are saying?
You cant cherry pick stats to make an argument. How was the blocking? Were the WRs open? Were there any drops? Did he miss any throws?
Tiki was awesome in that game, but by your account he was awful from the 1st drive sans one 41 yard run because he ran for less than 2 YPC for about 3 quarters. Makes sense now, doesnt it?
For what it's worth, the Giants were a seven-point underdog at the Linc. It's not as though nobody gave them a chance.
When Eli has a rough game, then gets hot late and gets the team the victory, he's lucky his defense bailed him out? When Russell Wilson is horrible for 3.5 quarters of the NFC Championship game and then gets hot late, he's clutch and is a winner? Same thing with Tim Tebow, once upon a time.
If Eli doesn't win another Super Bowl, he will not make the Hall. Unlike Ben, who probably already will. Rivers might ever get more consideration than Eli. Dare to mention the Super Bowls and watch people start taking about Dan Marino and Trent Dilfer (that's the go-to argument when trying to discredit Eli).
Perhaps Eli should announce his retirement, get plastic surgery to look totally different, change his name and sign with the Giants. Maybe people will finally fall over each other in love with him like they have with Wilson, Ben, and Romo.
The thing for me is that I dont think Eli was in the top 5 in most of his years playing. That not saying he is not a good player, he is just not the best of the best imho.
Looking at QB rating since 2006 here are his stats:
2006 - 16
2007 - 18
2008 - 12
2009 - 8
2010 - 9
2011 - 11
2012 - 7
2013 - 27
2014 - 7
Most of the usual suspects and guys he will compete against for HOF consideration are up in the top 5 or near consistently and have been top 2 at least once.
Yards / TDs / INTs (Most)ranking
2006 - 11, 4, 4
2007 - 12, 11, 1
2008 - 17, 10, 21
2009 - 10, 8, 11
2010 - 5, 4, 1
2011 - 4, 6, 7
2012 - 12, 9, 10
2013 - 14, 21, 1
2014 - 6, 9, 8
This is an area where he will suffer in the comparisons as well. He was only in the top 5 in passing yards twice. Only in the top 5 in TDs twice and for INTs he was in the top 5 four times while he led the league in INTs 3 times.
He has 2 Superbowl wins and 2 SB MVPs to his credit. Having seen pretty much every game he has played I just dont see the consistency for him to be considered a HOFer. I dont think comparing him to past generations is a fair comparison so just looking at him compared to others of his Era I think he falls just short if he were to retire today. If he adds 2 more great seasons and by great I mean top 5 stats he strengthens his case. In no way is he a lock imo when you take into account the stats above and his overall record.
Just my opinion. He is good not great and I am happy to have him.
For what it's worth, the Giants were a seven-point underdog at the Linc. It's not as though nobody gave them a chance.
And I wouldn't say he was great sither. A clunker was the 2nd eagle game and carolina. He was awful those games. Haha
They will be top 10 in total passing yards, and TDs. That's just a conservative estimate. If they both keep playing longer and still productive they can possible get closer to top 5.
Eli is tied for 12 in game winning drives. He is tied for 10th in 4th Q comebacks, and currently has that consecutive game starting streak.
I believe Eli, with more productive years, like this past year can easily get into the HOF. Right now the game is basically padding the shit out of your stats. If you can win a SB along the way, then even better, if not, just keep putting up numbers that add to his resume.
The hardest part was the 2 SB and MVPs. The hardest part is out of the way for him. Now to make that resume even better, just keep adding to it via stats.
Jim Plunkett was the only multiple SB bowl winner, with more INTs than TDS NOT to make it to the HOF. I highly doubt they keep Eli and even Ben out of it.
Jim Plunkett is a good comp for Eli. Numbers are meaningless because of the era's. Plunkett was high-intelligence, good-arm, no-athleticism QB who won when it mattered. His fans, on multiple teams, all adrmired him, but it never translated into a Staubach or Bradshaw type reputation.
Now, purely for argument's sake, subtract those 24 "peak" games (4 in 2007-2008, 20 in 2011-2012), and he drops from borderline HoF to the Testaverde / Bledsoe / Rivers / McNabb / Palmer level. I think the two Super Bowls and his incredible durability elevate him far above those guys, but I understand the view of those who wish the "good" Eli would show up more consistently. That doesn't mean he sucks in any overall sense. It just means he sucks too often.
Now, purely for argument's sake, subtract those 24 "peak" games (4 in 2007-2008, 20 in 2011-2012), and he drops from borderline HoF to the Testaverde / Bledsoe / Rivers / McNabb / Palmer level. I think the two Super Bowls and his incredible durability elevate him far above those guys, but I understand the view of those who wish the "good" Eli would show up more consistently. That doesn't mean he sucks in any overall sense. It just means he sucks too often.
Re 2011 regular season, had ANY QB in the '04 class had the year Eli had, a strong case could be made for an MVP award..Eli wasn't getting it under ANY circumstances, imo
Both have 3 Pro Bowls (Eli got fucked out of a 4th one this year)
Both have four 4,000 yard seasons
Both have two year of 30 plus TD passes
Both have 2 SBs
Both each had 1 incredibly bad season.
Eli has a few more TDs and more INTs. Ben has a better record. If Eli and Ben continue to play like they did last year, I think they will be tied together for the HOF.
Brady, Peyton, Rodgers are locks.
Brees is probably in, even though I would argue he is closer to Ben and Eli than most people think.
Ryan, Romo, Rivers, Flacco are a tier below.
Luck/Wilson its too early to tell.
So the two I didnt mention are Ben/Eli. And I think they are closer than most think. I think both of them will sky up the charts in yards/TDs. Obviously, Ben's team has had more success and Ben has played better the last few years, but I could argue that Eli was better in the middle part of their careers.
I dont think its unfair to say that all 6 (Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Eli, Ben) should make the HOF due to how much more important the position is now.
I agree he'll probably get in, but today he's not a lock.
I agree he'll probably get in, but today he's not a lock.
Ehhh. Two MVPs and a SB with insane numbers. I would consider him a lock now. But for all intents and purposes, he is most likely getting in.
Eli wasn't even in the conversation; and since MVP is a regular season award, it's hard to say he should have been. Although he carried a team with a leaky line and no running game; you could say the same of Rodgers. The Packers allowed 41 sacks and their top rusher had just 578 yards. They won their first 13 games and finished 15-1.
Meanwhile, the Packers blew most of their opponents out. That's one interesting aspect of AR's resume: partly because he has engineered so many routs, he doesn't have a lot of dramatic, game-winning drives to his credit. Does that mean he's less clutch than Eli, or is it more a function of circumstances?
That mindset goes towards, Tyree's Helmet Catch, Assante's dropped INT, the Tuck rule for Brady, Wilcots' in the gut dropped INT that would have ended in a Montana SB loss and so on..
Rodgers' year was fabulous, as was Favre's 2010, Brady's 50 TD tosses, Peyton's 55..
Unfortunately, post-season doesn't count, or else we wouldn't even be having this discussion, imo
It's clear my definition of MVP differs from yours and perhaps others and that's fine..It makes for solid discussion
Now, purely for argument's sake, subtract those 24 "peak" games (4 in 2007-2008, 20 in 2011-2012), and he drops from borderline HoF to the Testaverde / Bledsoe / Rivers / McNabb / Palmer level. I think the two Super Bowls and his incredible durability elevate him far above those guys, but I understand the view of those who wish the "good" Eli would show up more consistently. That doesn't mean he sucks in any overall sense. It just means he sucks too often.
I wasn't referring to Giants' fans. For the most part, Giants' fans are behind Eli. But it's not Giants' fans who decide the Hall of Fame, or sculpt public perception. It's the media, and all the fans.
And the media basically gave Russell Wilson a free pass when he sucked balls for 95 percent of the NFC Championship. It's the media that gave Wilson on a free pass in his Super Bowl for his interception (on a short pass in traffic, you need to put the ball where only the receiver can get it) and for having to burn a timeout after an incomplete pass at the beginning of their final drive).
Romo plays hurt, and he's a warrior. Eli is the NFL's active leader in consecutive starts, and he's merely durable. Which one sounds more impressive to you?
Ben has led the Steelers to two titles and three Super Bowls. His team won in spite of him in the first win and was a significant factor in them losing, but who talks about that? Eli has been the Super Bowl MVP twice, and all everyone can say is that he didn't deserve them. And when Giants' fans suggest Eli is a top quarterback, others laugh. When Steelers' fans suggest Ben is a top QB, others might agree, but nobody is laughing. The two QBs are fairly similar statistically, but you would never know by hearing people talk.
Eli had 0 tds against buffalo. I believe bradshaw had like four 1 yard TD runs. I know eli had like 3 guys tackled at the 1. I was at that game.
I dont go by padding stats anymore because the top QBs like Rodgers, Brady, and Peyton do it more than any other QBs.
I don't really think much of the stat itself. Then again, I don't think much of any stat, other than wins.
The Giants were the best three-wide team in the NFL by most metrics, but that usually didn't become their base until Gilbride/Coughlin had no choice in games, which was usually in "clutch" situations or the fourth quarter, when they were down or scratching to stay in it.
It was frustrating in some ways to watch, honestly, even right down to the SB, when they were facing a team giving Edelman snaps in the secondary they were so fucked and they still forced two TEs/TE-FB until they physically ran out of TEs to run out there.
I'd rather read about fibromyalgia.
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