Superstar money is service-time adjusted $30+/season. Kershaw just got 30. Stanton is getting high 20s with an optout at age 30. Trout is getting $34 for his UFA seasons. Cabrerra just got extended for ~30. Some other guys have terrible commitment after age 35 (eg Cano). Ellsbury doesnt.
Mook: Gardner's production is irrelevant to whether Ellsbury is overpaid. If Gardner was paid $30 million, does that make Ellsbury's contract a good deal? You can argue whether they're duplicative players, but on an absolute basis the contracts are unrelated. Didnt Gardner also get extended a year early as well? Players take a discount for getting that early piece of mind.
what the Yankees should be doing. Instead they are sitting there with their thumb up their ass with a garbage farm system and continuing to hand out awful contracts on the major league level.
Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1 · 2h 2 hours ago
#Redsox -- like #Cubs b4 them -- see hitting deficiency and are accumulating young, potential impact bats
This I agree with. 800 OPS is star territory these days. It is fucking sad. Though I dont know whether it is few hitting talents (in which case you have to stock up) or just an adjustment in the game where good hitters do worse because pitching has gotten so good (and in particular, guys throw so hard).
Any way you slice it, the Ellsbury contact is out of line with the player he is. Last year wasn't a bad year; it was a typical year for him. But, that isn't a $22M player. He is essentially the same player as Gardner, maybe slightly better. Would you consider paying Gardner even in the vicinity of $22M? The Yankees wouldn't, as they paid him $12.5M in a relatively close time frame to the Elssbury signing. Ellsbury, at $15M, would still be overpaid, but acceptable.
I was in favor of signing Ellsbury then and like him as a player still. But, I HATE signing him for what they did. It is just a stupid deal, especially when a deal like this prevents them from spending just one year later.
RE: RE: when healthy, Ellsbury is one of the better players in the game Â
trouble is, he rarely makes it through a full season healthy
Exactly one year in his career has he been one of the better players in the game.
Every other year, he's been a pretty good player. It's not just injuries that hold him back. He played 149 games last year. And he was just "pretty good". Far from worth 22 million
Ellsbury played 149, but he was playing hurt for much of the season. He was scorching hot early on, then once the dings set in (wasnt it a bad calf muscle in 14?) he slid into the "pretty good" category...which isn't close to worth his deal.
I'm not arguing with you that we overpaid for him, just stating my opinion, he's borderline elite, for those brief stretches when he isn't hurt
is that what they ended up paying him was not that far off from what they were going to pay Cano. Now, the deal breaker for Cano was more the extra years, than the annual salary. But, they could have potentially upped the salary for the shorter deal and re-signed Cano, rather than grossly overpaid Ellsbury. Cano, at least, is a legitimate #3 hitter.
Ellsbury hitting #3 isn't his fault. It is the fault of bad roster design and also based on injuries leaving them little choice. But, he is a #1 or #2 hitter batting out of position.
Hal doesn't like baseball, never has. His old man is turning over in his grave. I bought into the not spending for the big ML FA's, the so-called start of a youth movement. But if that's the case, not going full out for one of the last top international prospects they'll be able to sign in the next two years is unexecusable!
the troubling signing I keep in mind is the signing of Kevin Youkilis. Giving him $12MM was a much greater sin IMO than the signing of Ellsbury.
Not even close - Ellsbury got a 7 year deal. THAT'S the real sin.
In Ellsbury's case you are at least betting on a player to be a big part of your future. In Youk's case you are spending money on a player whose best days are clearly in his past.
I disagree with the latter approach to managing a team, and while I can criticize the overspending and overcommitment to the former, I can live with it. Spending on over-the-hill players is bad when a star has outlived his contract (as Ellsbury no doubt will do at some point), but it's worse when they are at that point when you signed them to begin with.
To make matters worse look at the opportunities missed when signing Youk.
and I'm not sure that's the case, you expect that he more than earns it early in the deal and then fails to do so later on, and that on the balance it is close to even. That is unlikely. But moreover he possesses a skillset very similar to what Gardner has, and is making significantly more money for longer. A smart, forward-thinking team would have paid Gardner and either banked the Ellsbury money or put it toward a power-hitter.
And I disagree with Mook about valuing Ellsbury's production as a 3-hitter, but only because I don't think Ellsbury is or should be a 3-hitter, and the reason he is has more to do with shitty roster construction than his fitness for the role.
especially when discussing Ellsbury. They have nothing to do with eac other. The Yankees were NEVER giving Cano what he wanted or what Seattle gave him. Not for that price at those years at his age. Ellsbury didn't prevent them from signing Cano.
Just sticking to the Moncada signing though one thing perplexes if the reports are true about them going to 27 or 28 mill and no higher. They worked the kid out twice and I can live with it if the evaluation was that 60 mill for a 20 year old unknown was just too much and they passed. However that's clearly not the case if they went to 27 or 28. They obviously though he was worth a sizable investment. So you come up 2 or 3 mill short to the Red Sox??? Very weird.
But the fact that he stays healthy all year and was still just "ok" scares me. Because there will be years where he's hurt and plays 100 or less games. I know they're coming. So for him to be only "ok" in a healthy season his first year of the deal bothers me a lot.
Still, I think I'd rather have Ellsbury for his deal than Cano for his. Cano is a far better hitter but that contract he signed was ludicrous and is exactly the type of contract the Yankees needed to avoid. The Yanks are struggling to deal with A-Rod's contract. Signing Cano was just asking for a repeat of that situation, especially considering the PEDs rumors surrounding him. Yanks wanted no part of that.
Beltran/McCann/Teixeira... THAT'S WHO YOU SHOULD BE BLAMING, far more than Ellsbury. Those guys are the reason we didn't get anywhere last year.
Teixeira gave us a great year in '09 where he was in the MVP mix, and he seems like a solid dude (although he gives off a bit of a politician vibe). But outside of that he might be one of my least favorite Yankees in a while. Especially since he was garbage in the '09 post-season when A-Rod had to carry his ass.
A-Rod is A-Rod. But Teixiera is the guy I'm just getting angrier and angrier at as every single season passes. He's ben a bum but he's getting paid like a superstar.
If the Beltran/McCann/Teixeira trio plays better than last year and our pitching staff stays healthy (I'm looking at you Tanaka), we could make a push for the post-season.
I tried to warn you guys. Hal is a tool, and George was likeable at the end, but he also was an idiot. But the big difference is that the kids are interested in the bottom line first, then baseball, they are making money hand over fist! With the TV contract they have and the new stadium, they could have easily afforded to sign Moncada, but money is more important. They will now tell you all about the guys in the minors they love, wait, that is coming next.
I tried to warn you guys. Hal is a tool, and George was likeable at the end, but he also was an idiot. But the big difference is that the kids are interested in the bottom line first, then baseball, they are making money hand over fist! With the TV contract they have and the new stadium, they could have easily afforded to sign Moncada, but money is more important. They will now tell you all about the guys in the minors they love, wait, that is coming next.
The thing is it is penny-wise and pound foolish in terms of their bottom line. You can cut the budget but if you're not consistently competitive it's going to be a net loss because you lose stretch and postseason revenue year in and year out, and capital appreciation/maintenance owes in large part to their status as a winner.
They just have no rhyme or reason to when they decide to spend money. It's like Hal's putting up a poster of contract numbers and just throwing darts at it.
What I want to know is how did Moncada look in the workouts? Â
That's the problem. They spend in some places they shouldn't and then pull in the reins where they shouldn't. This is not a new problem, though. they have had issues with organizational direction for years now.
First off, not signing Moncada over what amounts to around $12 million (taking into account the tax) is just plain stupid to me. They sorely need young impact hitters and not signing this kid to what only amounts to nominal dollars given the Yankee money making machine just doesn't make sense especially since they arent't exactly overflowing with such talent.
Second, the previous signings of CC, Arod, and Tex are absolutely killing them right now. If you want to throw Beltran and Ellsburry in there too, I get that, but that really isn't the problem.
I believe that the brass realizes that a rebuild is necessary (and yes they should have realized this much sooner) and are finally starting to do so. It seems obvious to me that they are waiting for CC, Arod and Tex to come off the books, hope that the farm starts producing some major league talent by then, and will then spend big again in free agency if the opportunity is there. I think this is the right move but certainly would have signed Moncada.
The free agent signings (and lack thereof of big ticket guys) and trades this offseason all point to the above direction. I have no problem with the Headley or Miller signings either and could care less about the Drew signing (he is nothing more than insurance if Refsynder doesn't pan out and/or buys some time).
What is killing baseball in general, and heavily hurting the Yankee veterans who are set in there ways (McCann, Tex, for example) is the heavy use of the shift but that's a different conversation.
...those saying that Hal doesn't know what he is doing is incorrect IMO. Hal is running the Yankees as a business pure and simple while his dad wanted to win at all costs. I went to graduate school with Hal and that is what he knows (eg finance). Now, do I like that Hal is running things this way? Hell no. Further, I think he is hurting the Yankee brand and have no earthly idea why anyone would pay the outrageous ticket prices to see this year's squad.
I would view this very differently. Then I would be upset they didn't land him. given the general consensus is that he is a year or more away, it is really a lot of money to pay up front for an untested kid, who isn't even going to hit the ball club until this deal is 2 years in.
this is
MookGiants : 12:16 pm : link : reply
what the Yankees should be doing. Instead they are sitting there with their thumb up their ass with a garbage farm system and continuing to hand out awful contracts on the major league level.
Code:
Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1 · 2h 2 hours ago
#Redsox -- like #Cubs b4 them -- see hitting deficiency and are accumulating young, potential impact bats
"The Yankees were assigned a $2.2M signing pool for international players this summer, but they blew right through that. Based on what we know, they will have to pay approximately $12.31M in taxes for going over their pool, and the final number will be higher than that since it is inevitable several signings have yet to be reported. Between bonuses and penalties, the current total payout is $26.82M, or thereabouts.... all of the team’s notable signings are position players."
"There are always a lot of prospect rankings around this time of year, and Kiley McDaniel has come up with an absurdly detailed Yankees list over at FanGraphs. McDaniel ranked his top 35, then kept going with mild scouting reports for another 30 or so others in the Yankees system. “Tampa Bay is the only other team with close to this kind of depth,” McDaniel wrote, “but the Yankees have two top-end talents (RHP Luis Severino and RF Aaron Judge) that the Rays can’t match, which helps separate the Bombers from Tampa Bay and other deep systems. Right now, I have the Yankees as the 10th best system in baseball, but with the bulk of high upside young talent and five of the top six prospects likely returning to next year’s list making it better than 50/50 that they’ll be even higher next year.”"
The team with the second-highest payroll in the sport and was the most aggressive in the international market this past off-season shouldn't be accused of being cheap. I don't think their minor-league system is nearly as bad as some contend, and I think there IS a plan in place to get younger and more athletic while shedding bad contracts. I think Cashman had a very good off-season this year, but we'll have to see how it turns out. I'm not terribly optimistic about the 2015 season, but I think things are moving in the right direction... Minor league notes and links: Fresh batch of Yankees prospect rankings - ( New Window )
just saw one of my friends post about this and he is a huge Red Sox fan (season ticket holder). He is like "this is ridiculous, what the hell are we going to do with the kid, i guess he is a year or two away so i guess he will be the heir apparent to Pedroia" LOL
I think it's generally a good and underrated system, and that it has contributed more to the big league team than orgs that have picked higher and spent more over the last several years. And one of Dermis Garcia or Juan De Leon or Nelson Gomez could go on to have a better pro career than Yoan Moncada.
But Moncada's bonus was more than the whole of their 7/2 spending binge, with the penalty more than twice as much. Ditto the price of Tomas, of Castillo, likely of Olivera.
it doesn't make sense to spend big on the big league team because that team is somewhat hamstrung by the 90 million bucks or whatever going to A-Rod, CC, Teix and Beltran. That team is not gonna be a big factor this year anyway.
SO SPEND BIG ON THE KIDS AND SET UP THE NEXT GENERATION. That's what they did with the rest of the IFA class. I just don't get losing out here. Weird place to be cheap.
Refsnyder will be ready in 1, maybe less. And it's not like the Yankees didn't plunder Latin America before Moncada. See: SS Jorge Mateo, SS Angel Aguilar, C Luis Torrens, OF Leonardo Molina, 3B Miguel Andujar.
So there's at least one sensible Yankee fan on this thread. I'm as disappointed as anyone, thought Moncada fit the Yankees needs perfectly. And with tons of upside. the Yankees have already unloaded on signing intl fa's, not like they haven't made a major effort to replenish talent on the farm. And not like they sat out on the moncada bidding.
They allowed the Sawx to win the bidding for what is essentially pocket change for the Yankees. They were willing to go to $27 mill but not $30? Ludicrous.
Never had a more disappointing morning as a Yankee fan. Not necessarily because of the player, but because of the context and the state of the team. The Stein boys don't deserve their last name, nor do they deserve ownership of this franchise. Honestly, the Sox? WTF.
If that's the case, then I agree about this being embarrassing. However, if it is simply not liking the realization that a $20M-$30M contract was going to be nearly double and they were not comfortable with that, I don't have much fault for them.
But, if that wasn't the issue so much, as settling on the final amount by a couple of million, then there is a problem.
Can't wait to see the new Yankees Hotstove on YES Â
and he has lost the message to his fan base. If he wanted to go below the tax he should have goner below the tax. If he wanted to buy his way out of a terrible farm system he should have bought his way out. If he wanted to corner the IFA market he should have gone all in. Hal doesn't seem to be able to go all in and stick to a plan. He jumps from one plan to the next and it almost seems like he is listening to multiple strong voices in his ear. Family, Levine, Cashman. It's not a good message to send to a very spoiled and nervous fan base. If things turn ugly with the older players and starting pitchers breaking down and they win in the low 70's it's going to be right back to spending half a billion on free agents next winter. There is no one in the Yankee organization to get excited about at this time. Maybe some of the kids will jump out in AA or AAA but there is no one close right now. The Yankees are old and boring. Not a good combo.
Are they really rebuilding, or are they just waiting out some expiring contracts so they can binge spend again? I don't mind them going out and spending money on a Cueto or a Jordan Zimmerman, but they're putting a lot of eggs in Severino and/or Judge becoming above average big-league regulars, at least in the short term.
Mook: Gardner's production is irrelevant to whether Ellsbury is overpaid. If Gardner was paid $30 million, does that make Ellsbury's contract a good deal? You can argue whether they're duplicative players, but on an absolute basis the contracts are unrelated. Didnt Gardner also get extended a year early as well? Players take a discount for getting that early piece of mind.
I'm hoping for Moncada to be a bust.
Joel Sherman @Joelsherman1 · 2h 2 hours ago
#Redsox -- like #Cubs b4 them -- see hitting deficiency and are accumulating young, potential impact bats
This I agree with. 800 OPS is star territory these days. It is fucking sad. Though I dont know whether it is few hitting talents (in which case you have to stock up) or just an adjustment in the game where good hitters do worse because pitching has gotten so good (and in particular, guys throw so hard).
I was in favor of signing Ellsbury then and like him as a player still. But, I HATE signing him for what they did. It is just a stupid deal, especially when a deal like this prevents them from spending just one year later.
Quote:
trouble is, he rarely makes it through a full season healthy
Exactly one year in his career has he been one of the better players in the game.
Every other year, he's been a pretty good player. It's not just injuries that hold him back. He played 149 games last year. And he was just "pretty good". Far from worth 22 million
Ellsbury played 149, but he was playing hurt for much of the season. He was scorching hot early on, then once the dings set in (wasnt it a bad calf muscle in 14?) he slid into the "pretty good" category...which isn't close to worth his deal.
I'm not arguing with you that we overpaid for him, just stating my opinion, he's borderline elite, for those brief stretches when he isn't hurt
Not even close - Ellsbury got a 7 year deal. THAT'S the real sin.
Ellsbury hitting #3 isn't his fault. It is the fault of bad roster design and also based on injuries leaving them little choice. But, he is a #1 or #2 hitter batting out of position.
Quote:
the troubling signing I keep in mind is the signing of Kevin Youkilis. Giving him $12MM was a much greater sin IMO than the signing of Ellsbury.
Not even close - Ellsbury got a 7 year deal. THAT'S the real sin.
In Ellsbury's case you are at least betting on a player to be a big part of your future. In Youk's case you are spending money on a player whose best days are clearly in his past.
I disagree with the latter approach to managing a team, and while I can criticize the overspending and overcommitment to the former, I can live with it. Spending on over-the-hill players is bad when a star has outlived his contract (as Ellsbury no doubt will do at some point), but it's worse when they are at that point when you signed them to begin with.
To make matters worse look at the opportunities missed when signing Youk.
And I disagree with Mook about valuing Ellsbury's production as a 3-hitter, but only because I don't think Ellsbury is or should be a 3-hitter, and the reason he is has more to do with shitty roster construction than his fitness for the role.
They should have torn it down, went crazy in IFA signing anyone they could, accumulate a ton of good young players, and gone from there.
Still, I think I'd rather have Ellsbury for his deal than Cano for his. Cano is a far better hitter but that contract he signed was ludicrous and is exactly the type of contract the Yankees needed to avoid. The Yanks are struggling to deal with A-Rod's contract. Signing Cano was just asking for a repeat of that situation, especially considering the PEDs rumors surrounding him. Yanks wanted no part of that.
Beltran/McCann/Teixeira... THAT'S WHO YOU SHOULD BE BLAMING, far more than Ellsbury. Those guys are the reason we didn't get anywhere last year.
Teixeira gave us a great year in '09 where he was in the MVP mix, and he seems like a solid dude (although he gives off a bit of a politician vibe). But outside of that he might be one of my least favorite Yankees in a while. Especially since he was garbage in the '09 post-season when A-Rod had to carry his ass.
A-Rod is A-Rod. But Teixiera is the guy I'm just getting angrier and angrier at as every single season passes. He's ben a bum but he's getting paid like a superstar.
If the Beltran/McCann/Teixeira trio plays better than last year and our pitching staff stays healthy (I'm looking at you Tanaka), we could make a push for the post-season.
The thing is it is penny-wise and pound foolish in terms of their bottom line. You can cut the budget but if you're not consistently competitive it's going to be a net loss because you lose stretch and postseason revenue year in and year out, and capital appreciation/maintenance owes in large part to their status as a winner.
They offered 25 million. If they didn't love him they dont even offer that.
Second, the previous signings of CC, Arod, and Tex are absolutely killing them right now. If you want to throw Beltran and Ellsburry in there too, I get that, but that really isn't the problem.
I believe that the brass realizes that a rebuild is necessary (and yes they should have realized this much sooner) and are finally starting to do so. It seems obvious to me that they are waiting for CC, Arod and Tex to come off the books, hope that the farm starts producing some major league talent by then, and will then spend big again in free agency if the opportunity is there. I think this is the right move but certainly would have signed Moncada.
The free agent signings (and lack thereof of big ticket guys) and trades this offseason all point to the above direction. I have no problem with the Headley or Miller signings either and could care less about the Drew signing (he is nothing more than insurance if Refsynder doesn't pan out and/or buys some time).
What is killing baseball in general, and heavily hurting the Yankee veterans who are set in there ways (McCann, Tex, for example) is the heavy use of the shift but that's a different conversation.
MookGiants : 12:16 pm : link : reply
what the Yankees should be doing. Instead they are sitting there with their thumb up their ass with a garbage farm system and continuing to hand out awful contracts on the major league level.
#Redsox -- like #Cubs b4 them -- see hitting deficiency and are accumulating young, potential impact bats
"The Yankees were assigned a $2.2M signing pool for international players this summer, but they blew right through that. Based on what we know, they will have to pay approximately $12.31M in taxes for going over their pool, and the final number will be higher than that since it is inevitable several signings have yet to be reported. Between bonuses and penalties, the current total payout is $26.82M, or thereabouts.... all of the team’s notable signings are position players."
"There are always a lot of prospect rankings around this time of year, and Kiley McDaniel has come up with an absurdly detailed Yankees list over at FanGraphs. McDaniel ranked his top 35, then kept going with mild scouting reports for another 30 or so others in the Yankees system. “Tampa Bay is the only other team with close to this kind of depth,” McDaniel wrote, “but the Yankees have two top-end talents (RHP Luis Severino and RF Aaron Judge) that the Rays can’t match, which helps separate the Bombers from Tampa Bay and other deep systems. Right now, I have the Yankees as the 10th best system in baseball, but with the bulk of high upside young talent and five of the top six prospects likely returning to next year’s list making it better than 50/50 that they’ll be even higher next year.”"
The team with the second-highest payroll in the sport and was the most aggressive in the international market this past off-season shouldn't be accused of being cheap. I don't think their minor-league system is nearly as bad as some contend, and I think there IS a plan in place to get younger and more athletic while shedding bad contracts. I think Cashman had a very good off-season this year, but we'll have to see how it turns out. I'm not terribly optimistic about the 2015 season, but I think things are moving in the right direction...
Minor league notes and links: Fresh batch of Yankees prospect rankings - ( New Window )
But Moncada's bonus was more than the whole of their 7/2 spending binge, with the penalty more than twice as much. Ditto the price of Tomas, of Castillo, likely of Olivera.
SO SPEND BIG ON THE KIDS AND SET UP THE NEXT GENERATION. That's what they did with the rest of the IFA class. I just don't get losing out here. Weird place to be cheap.
So there's at least one sensible Yankee fan on this thread. I'm as disappointed as anyone, thought Moncada fit the Yankees needs perfectly. And with tons of upside. the Yankees have already unloaded on signing intl fa's, not like they haven't made a major effort to replenish talent on the farm. And not like they sat out on the moncada bidding.
But, if that wasn't the issue so much, as settling on the final amount by a couple of million, then there is a problem.
I'm sure Michael Kay will be critical of the decision and will challenge Cashman on it.
I'm sure they'll talk about how good the Yankees farm system is, too. Can't forget about that line of BS.