I've somewhat arbitrarily defined "premium picks" as first 3 Rounds of the Draft, and I went back to 2008 in order to arrive at a full team complement of at least 22 players.
(Also, 2008 -- 7 years -- is a pretty lengthy time (maybe too lengthy) for a player's career in the NFL.)
** In the past 7 Drafts, the Giants have had 23 Premium Picks;
** All in all, I think their Premium Picks have been pretty good.
** At the bottom I've detailed the players by category. In my (subjective opinion) our Premium Picks break out as follows:
Good Picks: 6 players
Bad Picks: 5 players
Servicable Picks: 4 players
Not Sure Where They End Up: 4 players
Careers Cut Short: 4 players (of which two maybe three could have been classified with "Good Picks")
**Fortunately, our 2013/2014 Drafts were better than our 2011/2012 Drafts;
**Our 2011/2012 Drafts (in their entirety -- all Rounds) are major contributors to the Giants current status as a a bottom tier NFL Team;
**Clearly, the Giants favor WRs with their premium draft picks. The Giants have chosen 6 (out of 23) -- that comes to 26.1%;
**The Giants have the worst LB unit in the NFL and it is not a coincidence that they have devoted only 1 premium pick (out of 23) to this position;
**Likewise, it is not a coincidence that we have a very weak offensive line (and practically the worst run blocking line in the NFL) -- we've used only 3 premium picks for the O-line -- that comes to only 13% of our premium selections. Compare that to an expected frequency of 22.7% -- that is 5 offensive linemen / 22 starters = 22.7!
**Unlike the offensive line, the Giants have definitely paid attention to their defensive line -- devoting 6 premium selections to this unit.
***************************************************************************************************************************************************************************
They've had bad luck with injuries to at least 4 players: David Wilson, Chad Jones, Terrell Thomas, Kenny Phillips. That's 17% of their premium picks right there;
** On the plus side, my opinion is:
Hakeem Nicks
Jason Pierre-Paul
Linval Joseph
Prince Amukamara
Jonathan Hankins
OBJ.
That's 6 players -- or 26% hit rate;
** On the minus side (some of these big minuses), my opinion is:
Clint Sintim
Ramses Barden
Travis Beckum
Marvin Austin
Jerrel Jernigan
That's 5 players -- or a 22% miss rate;
** Serviceable players (highly subjective):
William Beatty
Mario Manningham (but I'll never forget his playoff catches against SF & the Pats!!!)
Rueben Randall
Justin Pugh
That's 4 players -- or a 17% "OK Servicable" rate
** Players who will end up as "Hits", "Misses" or "Servicable" but I'm not sure yet:
Jay Bromley
Weston Richburg
Damontre Moore
Jayron Holsey (leaning "Miss")
That's 4 players -- or a 17% "I'm Not SUre Yet" rate.
...you could argue moving Beatty from "Servicable" to "Good".
That's a tough one.
I will say this about the former Husky -- this was a huge, big test year for him given his putrid performance the year before after signing a big, fat contract.
He help up OK in 2014.
But no one would ever confuse him with a Pro Bowl player... or even a player one notch below Pro Bowl.
He's at least two notches below Pro Bowl.
People here want a HOF player, but they want it cheap. Can't have Pro-Bowlers at every position.
Personally I think the 2013 and 2014 were very good drafts but the ones before that, where they were going for "potential" basically sucked.
I like this new direction.
Quote:
Stud: There was a feeling that Will Beatty may have phoned it in after getting his big pay deal. Yeah well that feeling has been vanquished with him our top-ranked left tackle this year. A combination of efficiency in pass protection and ultra activity in the run game.
Never knew this..Thanks for the tidbit, Ira
You could even go all the way back to 2004 to get more data points and a bit clearer picture.
Premium positions are considered to be QB, WR, CB, and DL with LT included more due to reports heard about a few being possible targets rather than an actual selection itself. Within the DL designation, DE can be any round while DT is usually round 2 or 3.
Another part of the analysis which is a little harder to quantify is how often NYG chose closest BPA at a need position vs. Strict BPA. My understanding is if the need is considerable and a player is on the same tier but not necessarily strict BPA, the pick will likely be that player at the need position. However if there is a player that is glaring BPA in a tier above ,he would likely be the selection.
What does this say about this draft? I think WR is enough of a need along with it's consideration as a top premium position that it could very likely be the pick. With the 3 of Cooper, White and Parker it could be the strength of the draft in the 10 top relative to system fits for the Giants. Pass rusher is also quite strong however not many fit the Giants dynamic (unless significant shift in system or thinking round 2 under Spagnuolo).
Randle - depends how you define "good". I think his ceiling is a legit #2 WR who can put up good numbers taking advantage of soft coverages. He's definitely starting WR quality, which you could argue makes him a "good" player.
Hosley - what more do you need to see? He's awful and was lower on the depth chart than street FAs last year.
Another part of the analysis which is a little harder to quantify is how often NYG chose closest BPA at a need position vs. Strict BPA. My understanding is if the need is considerable and a player is on the same tier but not necessarily strict BPA, the pick will likely be that player at the need position. However if there is a player that is glaring BPA in a tier above ,he would likely be the selection.
The problem with the whole "need vs BPA" talk is that after the first 10 picks or so, it's highly likely that there are going to be multiple players at multiple positions all rated roughly equal. And if there are 2 players rated roughly the same and one plays a position of need, then you obviously take the player at the needed position (and can also claim you went "BPA").
Unless you pick top 10 (this year it seems more top 3), it's rare that a player truly better than everyone else on your board will be available. The one instance I can remember recently was Prince unexpectedly dropping.
While he is not the 'blue-goose' LT in the mold of a Tyron Smith, Joe Thomas, Joe Staley, maybe even Nate Solder , he has proven to be quite serviceable at the position. However he is making around 8 million next year and if we can find an cost-controlled upgrade Giants may go for it.
This particular draft is interesting because there are some OL with really good feet that project well to LT but didn't necessarily dominate in college.
Due to lack of production along with the high number of quality red-chippers in this draft, a couple of those guys (Jake Fisher, Clemmings, less likely there DJ Humphries) may drop into the top of round 2 and may be in the conversation for the pick.
Folks don't seem to remember that Manningham was more than just the SB46 catch. He was damn good, and made a lot of big plays in that offense before his injury. He was better than Randle has been thus far.
2011 draft is coming off a Super Bowl victory......which has several affects. Team will not have a too many of opening for rookies, if any......coaches hesitent to change....picks will be more swings for the fences (riskier)
I would compare draft to other teams success/failures to get a more accurate picture of draft.......I suspect our numbers are good.
Draft is not perfect for everyone....
The safeties picks were decimated by injuries.......wow
Jerigan lack of success has something to do with Cruz......an undrafted fa.
Reuban and Beatty......are starting......really?
I would like to re-emphasize, however, a couple of key points that may have gotten a bit lost since they came toward the end of the post.
We have stayed away from drafting LBers with premium picks-- and we have one of the weakest LBing corps in all of pro football. And our weak LBing corp is a crucial reason why we are a very, very weak team at the POA.
We have also devoted -- relatively speaking -- very few premium picks to the offensive line. (Clearly, one has to look at this in the context of Free Agency activity.) But at the end of the day, it is not a coincidence IMO that the Giants are also one of the weakest run blocking teams in the NFL.
And that leads to one last conclusion.
We cannot play winning football if we are BOTH weak in the run game and weak at stopping the run game.
It is axiomatic.
(1) In regard to your following words on how we draft, this is precisely my understanding as well:
"Another part of the analysis which is a little harder to quantify is how often NYG chose closest BPA at a need position vs. Strict BPA. My understanding is if the need is considerable and a player is on the same tier but not necessarily strict BPA, the pick will likely be that player at the need position. However if there is a player that is glaring BPA in a tier above ,he would likely be the selection."
(2) I think Cooper, White and Parker may all turn out to be very, very fine Pro WRs -- but I'm of the opinion that WR is not a need pick for us -- at least not in the context of the need I believe we have at LB and OL.
I didn't look at the past 7 Drafts in their entirety so I can't really assess versus other teams.
But, maybe, implicitly we can.
Whether due to injuries, bad luck or just bad overall draft selections, the Giants find themselves sorta near the bottom looking up.
I don't think it's unfair, therefore, to say our overall drafting has been bad-middling.
That said, I still feel that our Premium Picks have been good overall.
(2) I think Cooper, White and Parker may all turn out to be very, very fine Pro WRs -- but I'm of the opinion that WR is not a need pick for us -- at least not in the context of the need I believe we have at LB and OL.
Regarding your 2nd point, I think your analysis shows that unless a player is a 'transcendent' talent at a non-premium Giant position i.e TE,LB, non-LT OL, or round 1 DT , we will generally not select that player in round 1.
Quote:
Stud: There was a feeling that Will Beatty may have phoned it in after getting his big pay deal. Yeah well that feeling has been vanquished with him our top-ranked left tackle this year. A combination of efficiency in pass protection and ultra activity in the run game.
could there be any greater example of why PFF sucks? will beatty the #1 LT in the league. holy cow
My belief for why the Giants are bad today comes down to two very, very lousy Drafts for players who woulda, coulda, shoulda been in their prime today -- that is, the 2011 & 2012 Drafts.
They were just awful.
It's also my opinion that Jerry Reese did not have success in building a team that could run the ball and stop the run. That's hurting us as well.
But there's one side of me that is assessing these two guys with a very cold calculus:
They represent 2/5 of an offensive line that is one of the worst at running the ball in the NFL.
They may not be the reason... but at bare minimum there is "guilt by association."
...I was sorta wondering about that #1 assessment for W.B, too.
...I understand and agree with your comments regarding injuries.
...I think you may be right, and I agree the 2013 & 2014 Drafts were good (or will very shortly turn out to be good), and I just hope we have similar success this year and beyond!
Lots of WRs, DLs and DBs for sure, but it's at least possible that Jerry Reese recognizes in this draft that our weakness against the run is due in part to a weak LBing corp that he created by neglecting this position in past Drafts.
In other words, he goes premium pick for LB.
Just a thought.
The same can be said about our run offense. Thus he may go high for O-line as well.
Maybe it also illustrates why certain posters should moderate their extreme views and absurd expectations?
When citing the problems with the OL, it quite often starts with how much Beatty sucks or is no more than average at best
Lots of WRs, DLs and DBs for sure, but it's at least possible that Jerry Reese recognizes in this draft that our weakness against the run is due in part to a weak LBing corp that he created by neglecting this position in past Drafts.
In other words, he goes premium pick for LB.
Just a thought.
The same can be said about our run offense. Thus he may go high for O-line as well.
There is usually one premium pick outside of the priority positions. However, this year especially they have needs in the priority positions as well. WR, and DL for sure and safety possibly, too. And to be fair that one pick could be a first round pick as with Wilson. I think that won't be the case this year but we'll see.
if thats ur methodology, throw it in the garbage can.
I would say above average with some inconsistency in his game would be an apt description. Is there at 9 a player worthy to upgrade him? That's the 8 million dollar question but I'm leaning more towards no than previously.
It's the NFL way to cycle teams success whether it's draft position, cap, market forces & false expectations and just change of luck.
The trenches (OL & Front 7) cycle takes the longest to replace/improve due to the multi-player inter-connection. Even if we got 5 top OLmen...the experience of playing together matter.
The differences between the best and worse teams are far less especially if key roles are in place.
and
Over the past decade.....only one team has had greater success (New England) and only handful relatively the same (Pittsburgh, Seattle, The Giants, NO, Green Bay, Baltimore).
Or you can just say PFF sucks, which seems kind of lazy.
Clearly, a team is doing well if they find a starter from these two Rounds, but that's not an unheard of event.
So... the Giants had 13 Selections at #4 or #5 beginning with the 2008 Draft. Here are a few observations and personal opinions:
(1) We chose 3 LBers (Brian Kehl, Philip Dillard and Jonathan Goff) if for no other reason than we definitely neglected this position in the first three Rounds (having selected only one -- Clint Sintim, who was really a hybrid LB/DE);
(2) So, Jerry Reese definitely tried to balance the scales at LB, reasonably hoping to find a "good" starter or a "good" second-string LB. I think he failed at that;
(3) I think to some degree, Jerry Reese tried the same tactic for the O-Line -- reasonably hoping to pick up a "good" player in the 4th or 5th Round (i.e., Mitch Petrus, James Brewer and Brandon Mosley). I still have hopes for Mosley, but the other two selections are quite painful to even contemplate, and thus -- like the LBer position -- Jerry Reese failed overall;
(4) Of the seven remaining 4/5's, there is -- I think -- only one name where we got real good value, RB Andre Williams. (Numerous injuries held back the other RB, Andre Brown, from ever reaching his full potential).
(5) The jury about "real good value" is still out for Ryan Nassib and Nat Berhe.
So... my bottom line take away:
It is very, very regrettable that we missed at O-Line and LB with our 4's & 5's, because we neglected these two areas with our Premium Picks 1,2 & 3). And, thus, a current Giants team that can't run nor stop the run.
...he was a very late 3rd Rounder -- #100 and assigned by the NFL.
We has another pick that year in Round 3 -- #85 Ramses Barden.
Beckum & Barden. They may turn out to be a good law firm some day. Ugh.
...interesting, I always thought of Wilson and Mitchell as pretty stout against the run game.
...very true.
You expect a premium draft pick to have an extended career with your team, and you simply can not constantly churn guys and still build a winning team. So two of those guys get an asterisk for a sub-standard (short) career with the GIANTS.
Furthermore, Beatty is only an average LT at best. He's has one awful season, is not a dominant run blocker, and is no more than an average pass protector when the chips are down. I was very much in favor of drafting him and was overjoyed when the GIANTS got him, but I do not think he has lived up to expectations. He's probably a guy you can win with if there is a lot of other strong talent around him, which is not the case now, but he's not a guy that you win with due to his presence in the lineup.
...ahhh!!!
Thanks for correcting me on that. I left Kennard off the second list.
So, in essence, Jerry Reese went with 4 LBers in the 4/5 hole over the past seven drafts, and definitely Kennard sure seems more like a keeper than Brian Kehl, Philip Dillard or Jonathan Goff!
Keeping my fingers crossed with this guy. He sure looked good last year when healthy!
Go down the list of LTs inn the NFL. Easy to find 10 guys better than him. PFF is a scam other than snap counts.
Premium picks are the top 2 rounds
You also have to look at who was available when we picked. There were so few LB to get at the time we picked is ridiculous. Also what players in the top couple rounds would you not have drafted
It is also a fact that injuries effect who needs to get drafted. You would not have to keep drafting WR if Smith and Nicks did not get hurt. You also lost Thomas, Wilson, Philips and Sintim to career ending injuries at 26 or younger. Not to mention C Jones
people continue to bitch about Reese and the OL because he did not draft Alex Mack or Cordy Glenn. The staff never gets a morsel of criticism for not developing any OL, when every other NFL team can do so
An nfl average starting Mike from a 5th round selection is good drafting. He may have become above average or good even, we will never know.
But I'm of the opinion that we are who we are -- not because we haven't selected enough WRs or Defensive Linemen -- but because we haven't selected enough players who can run block and stop the run.