Just wanted to see BBI's take on kickoff returns.
In my view the league has sent a clear message that they are trying to deter kickoff returns by moving the kickoff up 5 years. They are doing so as a PR move to pretend they care about players safety, which outside of PR, they have a long and documented track record of not caring. But lets put that aside.
In my view, unless you have an incredibly talented kick returner, you should be downing the ball in the endzone every time. Watching Tom C continue to return kicks this year was maddeding. You are being spotted to get the ball at the 20 yard line. Take it. There is no stastiicla value to try and return the ball. Even for those rare times you get past the 20 they are not worth the attendant risk of injuries, penalties and turnovers. In my view the Giants lost to Arizona this year because they tried to return a kick and the returner fumbled.
The giants should be on onside recover every single time and down the ball when it gets to the endzone. Similarly, for all teams, there are certain times when it makes no sense to return kicks, like when the other team is home and has momentum. Case and point, the first game of the year the packers tried to return the opening kick against Seattle. They got tackled at the 6 yard line.
Seattle off a championship, crowd going nuts...you really think you are going to get anywhere??
The league is trying to deter kick off returns by making them harder. Take their advice.
Eliminating a useful strategic option, the KOR, is an awful idea.
Eliminating a useful strategic option, the KOR, is an awful idea.
I would agree
Which is why you don't put a returnman back there who has the incentive to try to make a splash by making a dumb return.
I didn't mean to be in onside kick formation. I meant to say that I would have my up line focus heavily on an onisde kick and when the ball hits the endzone down it.
You guys can argue all you want but the stats are the stats.
Eliminating a useful strategic option, the KOR, is an awful idea.
Useful weapon? When is this weapon going to be unleashed? What year? Cause all I see is the majority of the returns ending before the 20 yard line. All I see fumbles, penalties and injuries.
This weapon of yours you speak of seems to be nothing more then suicide. Starting at the 10, instead of the 20, is a huge, huge, huge difference.
You speak with heart, and I respect that, but you speak ignoring the stasticial evidence.
Means that you used a bit too much hyperbole.
The giants averaged 23.3 yards per return this year.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/returning
That stat doesn't include penalties but does include returns that started at the back of the endzone. So if you return a kick on the - and get 20 yards you are on the 15. Thus, the 23 yards per return stat shows they are starting below the 20 yard line. Additonally, we are not counting turnovers or injuries.
Here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamst they are given a -5.9 for kickoff returns.
There is not statisitical measure to argue the giants should continue returning kicks for any reason other then it being the end of a half or game and you have to take a shot.
Means that you used a bit too much hyperbole.
even if 23.3 were the accurate measure, which in my post bellows I show it isn't as you are inter[peting it, those three yards are not worth the turnovers, injuries or penalties.
SO sorry I see you are arguing cause you want to disagree with me but I am clearly right on this point.
but I'm not going to waste my Sunday arguing with a recently signed up troll, who's notion of "statistical evidence" is 2 data points, with absolutely zero understanding that statistics are not inference (what you assert).
And who thinks that running an onsides formation won't get exploited heavily by NFL teams. That one was good for a hearty laugh.
Considering that the highest average KO distance was 66.6 yards. Meaning 1.4 yards deep...
but I'm not going to waste my Sunday arguing with a recently signed up troll, who's notion of "statistical evidence" is 2 data points, with absolutely zero understanding that statistics are not inference (what you assert).
And who thinks that running an onsides formation won't get exploited heavily by NFL teams. That one was good for a hearty laugh.
I already clarified I didn't mean they sit in an onside formation, but rather, focus on it in a regular formation more so thenw orrying about blocking for return yards that wont come.
I have a masters degree in stats. I agree these two points aren't the whole story and could never me. But the fact of the matter is, with what evidence is available, there is no argument for the giants returning kicks as their means, (which by the way the amount of returns they had is a big enough sample size) is below the given average.
The league made kickoff returns harder but kept the 20 yard line as a starting point. Why do you think they did that?
It is to make kickoff returns incenvtive less. Just cause an old school coach refuses to budge and just beause you want to argue with me but don't have a tidbit of evidence to do so doesn't amek me wrong.
BTW, THAT STASTICAL EVIDENCE WAS DEEMED GOOD BY YOU A MINUTE AGO WHEN YOU CITED IT UNTIL YOUR EALIZED YOU MIS-CITED IT AND WHERE INCAPABLE OF PROPERLY INTERPRETING IT.
Odd change, no?
Considering that the highest average KO distance was 66.6 yards. Meaning 1.4 yards deep...
That stat should be taken with a grain of salt...but I suggest your read how they compiled it which isn't pulled out of their ass at all. I also suggest you note they had the giants special teams ranked 30th overall...seems about right to me.
Link - ( New Window )
Your stat ignores squib kicks, onside kicks, and penalties. We have been over this.
A Master's in Stats would understand that the counter example now means that a correlational exercise is no longer sufficient, which is what you've been doing.
But you knew that; right?
They do not...,I suggest you see what you are reading again.
Good point!
It's not...
A Master's in Stats would understand that the counter example now means that a correlational exercise is no longer sufficient, which is what you've been doing.
But you knew that; right?
No, what I have done is ran a regression, on stata to determine it.
What I have been doing hear is pointing out with the limited information I have available that it makes no sense and gains no competeive advantage for the giants to have returned kicks last year. In fact all it did was hinder their chances of success by increasing the odds of an injury, turnover or penalty. Further I have pointed out the extreme negative of starting out on the 15 or 10 lets say, as compared to the lesser positive of starting at the 25. We all know when a team is backed up they are forced to be a little more careful, generally. I have yet to see anyone offer anything otherwise.
By the way your response here is simply disingenuous. You used a stat to say I was exaggerating and now you are dismissing my argument for lack of stats.
My stats I have cited aren't the greatest, as I have said. I believe the Giants lost 3 or 4 fumbles on kickoff this year. I have no idea how many penalties there were( I would assume well more then 3 or 4). All this to barely get to what they are giving you?
Simply makes no sense.
Good point!
Silly little man...it doesn't exlude those stats..so including those would undoubtedly lower whatever marginal advantage there is.
You know aggregated stats can point out extreme hyperbole and point to evidence that you don't have enough data to conclude anything from a rather simplistic correlation exercise?
It's a rather trivial and introductory exercise that any inference class will go through.
great question...however, I don't think it matters how they compare to the rest of the league. Whats the difference? The question is should they return kicks or not not whether the rest of league suffers from the same folly.
It's ok. We all know you haven't asserted a graduate degree in English.
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And how did that compare to the rest of the league?
great question...however, I don't think it matters how they compare to the rest of the league. Whats the difference? The question is should they return kicks or not not whether the rest of league suffers from the same folly.
Ah, see, had you actually run a regression, this would be a simple count exercise in STATA...
It's not...
now your being coy. "Rookie Cordarrelle Patterson of the Minnesota Vikings tied the NFL record for longest return of any kind when he ran back the opening kickoff 109 yards in Week 8 of the 2013 season."
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In comment 12158060 YAJ2112 said:
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And how did that compare to the rest of the league?
great question...however, I don't think it matters how they compare to the rest of the league. Whats the difference? The question is should they return kicks or not not whether the rest of league suffers from the same folly.
Ah, see, had you actually run a regression, this would be a simple count exercise in STATA...
FOr a novice it would be..in my view controlling for other variables is the best way to predict the success of a kick return.
Your arguments here are childish, evasive and pointless.
The most extreme of your arguments are that the giants are 3 yards plus on kickoff returns(23). I have pointed out that is overstating it.
But even if it is accurate, I doubt those 3 yards are worth turnovers, injuries and penalties, as well as the extremely negative of starting at the 10-15(or worse).
Again, the NFL kept the 20 as the freebee yet moved up the kicks. Hmm...wonder why.
Kickoffs are measured on where they are caught.
Which was my point.
You can think you're on to something, but I'll defer to the ST's in the league, who will likely ignore your sage advice.
What prior handles were you?
You have the number of KO's past the 15 in the raw data you entered into STATA, remember? You know, so people can report the number of observations within a range? You know, that's a simple count exercise in the program?
Which has nothing to do with controlling for other variables. And a regression...
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the Vikings?
Kickoffs are measured on where they are caught.
Which was my point.
and the average kickoff is caught 1.6 yards deep in the end zone, not 5 yards... which was his point
Ah, but I see you will defer to the ST coaches in the league...cop out.
I was discussing the giants and there kick off return situation. So perhaps you should defer to Quinn...haha yeah defer to him.
If I was st coach this year I can tell you the Giants would have beat the cardinals.
The risks don't out weight the rewards(by reward I mean worse then what the league spots you.)
As for my prior handles the answer is none. An bringing that up in this discussion is a white flag that I suggest you waive a little hiher.
Good day sir.
And while a touchback remains to give you the ball at the 20, all teams still return kickoffs from the endzone. Wonder why that is.
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In comment 12158074 kicker said:
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the Vikings?
Kickoffs are measured on where they are caught.
Which was my point.
and the average kickoff is caught 1.6 yards deep in the end zone, not 5 yards... which was his point
It's ok YAJ.
With a Master in Stats, you don't need to understand such trivialities.
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In comment 12158074 kicker said:
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the Vikings?
Kickoffs are measured on where they are caught.
Which was my point.
and the average kickoff is caught 1.6 yards deep in the end zone, not 5 yards... which was his point
I never said the average kickoff is caught 5 yards back in the endzone. I offer no evidence as to that other than to say that kickoff returns are measured based by where they are caught.
so if it is 1.6, and the giants average 23...we are talking about 21.5 average return. 1 yard gain for fumbles, penatylies and injuries. Yeah I am a real moron to suggest playing it safe.
However, again, the 23 yard stat is ignoring penalties and fumbles.
An one last time, if you start at the 24 or you start at the 12, I think the negatives of the 12 far outweigh the psotives of the 24.
My stata regressions info is not available at this time as a result of my location.
However, I see you continue to turn the argument on me rather then on what we are discussing because the hard facts don't help so much.
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In comment 12158080 to_pass_time said:
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In comment 12158074 kicker said:
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the Vikings?
Kickoffs are measured on where they are caught.
Which was my point.
and the average kickoff is caught 1.6 yards deep in the end zone, not 5 yards... which was his point
I never said the average kickoff is caught 5 yards back in the endzone. I offer no evidence as to that other than to say that kickoff returns are measured based by where they are caught.
so if it is 1.6, and the giants average 23...we are talking about 21.5 average return. 1 yard gain for fumbles, penatylies and injuries. Yeah I am a real moron to suggest playing it safe.
However, again, the 23 yard stat is ignoring penalties and fumbles.
An one last time, if you start at the 24 or you start at the 12, I think the negatives of the 12 far outweigh the psotives of the 24.
Then you should be telling every NFL team to stop returning kickoffs from the endzone, since every team still does it with regularity. And the Giants have better results at doing it then half the league, so you should start with the team that was ranked 32nd
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In comment 12158080 to_pass_time said:
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In comment 12158074 kicker said:
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the Vikings?
Kickoffs are measured on where they are caught.
Which was my point.
and the average kickoff is caught 1.6 yards deep in the end zone, not 5 yards... which was his point
It's ok YAJ.
With a Master in Stats, you don't need to understand such trivialities.
You may notice that teams are beginning to deliberately kickoff to around the 1 or 2 yard line? Have you? Hmm...I wonder why...cause they want you to return it because they know the league made rules in order to try and deter you from returning it!!
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In comment 12158087 YAJ2112 said:
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In comment 12158080 to_pass_time said:
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In comment 12158074 kicker said:
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the Vikings?
Kickoffs are measured on where they are caught.
Which was my point.
and the average kickoff is caught 1.6 yards deep in the end zone, not 5 yards... which was his point
I never said the average kickoff is caught 5 yards back in the endzone. I offer no evidence as to that other than to say that kickoff returns are measured based by where they are caught.
so if it is 1.6, and the giants average 23...we are talking about 21.5 average return. 1 yard gain for fumbles, penatylies and injuries. Yeah I am a real moron to suggest playing it safe.
However, again, the 23 yard stat is ignoring penalties and fumbles.
An one last time, if you start at the 24 or you start at the 12, I think the negatives of the 12 far outweigh the psotives of the 24.
Then you should be telling every NFL team to stop returning kickoffs from the endzone, since every team still does it with regularity. And the Giants have better results at doing it then half the league, so you should start with the team that was ranked 32nd
No, because for some teams it makes sense.
But as a general point yes I think the vast majority of teams stastically are insanse for retunring kickoffs.
That is correct and the fact that they all do it isn't very persuasive.
I feel the same way about fg defense. Why in gods name in most situations not just come out in safe.
For example, why did mcarthy not come out in fg safe against sea in playoff game. Its moronic. There is a time and place to go for a block. There is a time and place to go for a return. But most of the time with returns it simply doesn't pan out for THE GIANTS and many other teams.
I hope ther est of the league tries to return them and during a game I root for such an event.
being around yes...frequency has changed as to their general all purpose use.
I think the giants fumbled 4 times on kickoffs this year....my point is for fucking what?
No sir, then I would be a moron. If the ball is not in the endzone you damn well have no choice but to return it. I woulod never run the risk of hoping the ball boucnes in the end zone and everythin I am saying about being careful suggests I wouldn't.
It is relevant to my point because it shows some teams are baiting teams to return it at the one because the changed kickoff rules have made doing so beneficial to the coverage team as I have stated.
The facts related to my regression are not central to my point here and I have not used them as such thus your point here is again disingenuous.
\As for the frequency of mortar kicks...yes they have changed...in the past teams wanted kickers to get to the endzone before the 5 yard rule change. Kickers didn't have the command to all kick touchbacks at will. Now that command is here and now that the kickoff team is that much closer, they are much more sane to use.
Remind me, again, what you said about the statistical value of these in your first post?
That does not prove that. Let's say you had one kick returned to the 30 yard line and two kicks returned to the 18 yard line. The average would be a return to the 22, but a majority would be returned short of the 20.
And as the OP has reminded us, there are also lost fumbles and penalties to make things worse.
Does that mean you should never return a kick that is into the end zone? I would say no, but the returners do seem to be taking too many out. The approach should be more conservative with returns only if there seems to be a well blocked path. JMHO
The likelihood that you have the one upper outlier (or a small number of them) dragging that average up is highly unlikely.
Oh, wait !