News that the Giants and JPP are trying to get a longterm deal done before the start of free agency but can't agree on the guaranteed money is kind of like your pal telling you he's found the perfect girl for you except for her looks.
Here are my thoughts--divided into the good, the bad, and the ugly--on how the JPP saga may play out (there are a variety of possibilities and it's too early to tell which direction it will head)....
Good
1. Because of the franchise tag, he gets no offers from other teams and elects to sign the tag in order to guarantee his $14.8M salary for 2015. Under this scenario, he is required to attend OTA's, minicamps, and training camp. It's also the least likely scenario.
2. A team signs JPP to a long term deal which requires them to give up their 2015 and 2016 first round picks to the Giants. For this to happen, it would likely be a late-drafting playoff team like the Colts (after missing out on the Suh sweepstakes).
3. A team agrees with JPP and the Giants on a "trade and sign" deal in which the Giants receive the team's 2015 first round pick along with an additional pick or two (i.e., a 2015 third or fourth round pick or 2016 second or third round pick). For this to happen, it would likely be a mid-first round team like the Dolphins (after missing out on the Suh sweepstakes).
Bad
1. After a few more weeks of negotiations, the Giants sign JPP to a long term deal with $35M+ guaranteed. They get to keep JPP and maybe it turns out great, but my guess is that it would ultimately be a deal the Giants regret.
2. After a few more months of negotiations, things get ugly and the Giants wind up cutting their losses in May or June by trading him to a team for a 2016 first round pick.
Ugly
1. JPP doesn't sign the tender, doesn't get any offers from other teams, and sits out all OTA's, minicamps, and training camp, ultimately signing his franchise tender the week before the season begins (thus missing all instruction on the new defense).
2. JPP doesn't sign the tender and is still sitting out when the season starts in September. He then joins the team in week ten in order to avoid losing an accrued season and he becomes a free agent again in 2016, except now it would cost $18M to franchise him. It's also possible under this scenario that the Giants trade him before the in-season trading deadline.
Best case scenario is he signs BEFORE the free agency signings....if he doesn't sign, this kind of hamstrings the front office as to what direction they want to go in free agency....
If he is still not signed by the time of the draft, then the shit really hits the fan.....
So basically, he has them over a barrel, and he can push for whatever he wants, because the longer this takes, the fewer moves that can be made in free agency(as other teams sign guys the Giants might potentially want)....and that will have a direct affect on how they plan their draft.....
This could force Reese into a deal he didn't want to pay for....where have we heard this before?
Best case scenario is he signs BEFORE the free agency signings....if he doesn't sign, this kind of hamstrings the front office as to what direction they want to go in free agency....
If he is still not signed by the time of the draft, then the shit really hits the fan.....
So basically, he has them over a barrel, and he can push for whatever he wants, because the longer this takes, the fewer moves that can be made in free agency(as other teams sign guys the Giants might potentially want)....and that will have a direct affect on how they plan their draft.....
This could force Reese into a deal he didn't want to pay for....where have we heard this before?
It's normal. Now if I were him Id want more than the 19 mil they handed to Beatty as a guarantee. He's a better player and the standard at DE is higher now a few years later. Can't blame either party and most people seem to not want to lay him anything but he's young and IMO with a DC Without his head up his ass he could be better like Osi was after Spags took over for Sherridan
or 30M guaranteed for 6 years.
front load the guarantees and by year 4 (after three years of the contract when he's like 28 years old) he could be cut relatively pain free.
When I think JPP I think more about who do you replace him with than what the contract means in terms of cap hit.
We've seen him at his best and he's HOF-level and at his worst and he's still better than half the league at his worst.
This is a no-brainer - get it done before FA starts, but at worst before the draft. I doubt anyone touches him this year with the steep price, but I could see a team like Seattle or New England who projects to pick end of the first being bold and making a play.
No chance of any of that happening.
They most likely get a long term deal in place or he signs the tender at some point, probably part way through training camp.
JPP has some injury history (bad backs are the worst kind of risk) and he is risking injury that will affect his ability to get guaranteed money and future contracts if he doesn't sign a new contract here.
JPP has some injury history (bad backs are the worst kind of risk) and he is risking injury that will affect his ability to get guaranteed money and future contracts if he doesn't sign a new contract here.
Good points.
It could happen. Some teams have a lot of cap room, and JPP is known around the league. He would excite any fan base. He may be holding off signing the contract until the 7th, when he can start to ascertain whether other teams are interested. As I said, I think the answer will be no.
The only people that can pull of a hold out are those who play at an all pro level year and year out.
JPP can't afford to miss time because that will hurt the $$$ he gets and even if he does miss some of the preseason. He'll want to be in the best shape to have an even better "contract" year. If this year is like 2 years ago and to a lesser extent 3 years ago he goes from $11-12 M down to $9-10. If he adds "questionable team player" to that list he's looking at $8-9.
He would hold all the cards if he had no warts but he does have some (injuries, general inconsistency) it will cost him a lot of money to add more. He knows this.
IMO it behooves the Giants to go out and sign another pass rusher (McPhee, or Sheard) or draft one like Beasley or Gregory that will force his hand more.
The one thing I think we all know about JPP is he wants to get paid. I think he is as worried about his back/health as any of us, hence the urgency. IMO if this wasn't a factor he wouldn't even really be really discussing a contract with us if we were that far apart on the guarantees. He'd wait to see the most likely enormous money that will be tossed around on Suh and others. Someone like McPhee very well might get $10M / Y. The fact that both sides are pushing to wards a Monday resolution means that incentives and leverage go both ways. That's the only reason contracts are ever worked out before they absolutely have to be.
Bottom line if JPP was confident that he would have a great year this year he'd say give me 6 Y / 78 M and $35 M guaranteed. Only talk to me when you are close to that number.
The gap in guarantees just says to me both sides are playing hardball in negotiations.