This is what Reese more or less said he does and if you study his drafting patterns over the last decade plus, I think they greatly correlate with this philosophy.
This also must account for the importance of the premium impact positions. You will see in rounds 1-3 Reese has heavily went WR,DL,CB followed by OL recently due to the heavy needs over the last couple years.
With that said, here are some early stabs I have created for each round based on where the highest positional value is in the draft each round. I have also accounted for our current needs (not just this year but a couple years down the road) and what positions we generally value higher than others due to their impact potential and subsequently their higher cost and lower supply in FA.
Listed in rough order of probability using above criteria:
Disclaimer: I don't think there will be much cluster drafting this year in the top 4 so if one position is picked in the previous round, I don't see them going to the well twice. However I could see them go heavy defense later in draft and picking up two safeties total.
Round 1 (Pick #9)
1. WR -one of top premium positions in today's game with value at this pick likely to be sky high with one or two of Cooper/Parker/White falling to 9- (Further reasoning of value meeting need- Randle may not get a second contract and Cruz is an unknown).
2. Edge rusher/DE- if Giants are seeking to run some concepts that will heavily feature hybrid pass rushers under Steve, the likelihood increases greatly (top option being Beasley IMV). Otherwise, there are only a couple guys potentially worthy of 9 who fit their tried and true prototype like Bud Dupree.
3. OL-I just don't see the need as high with 4 of 5 of our starters accounted for as well as great vaule here at 40 but Giants may fall in love with one of Collins,Scherff or Peat There is no Tyron Smith,Taylor Lewan or even Nate Solder in this draft with the body type and elite LT versatility the Giants covet. i.e. long,strong tackles with long arms and excellent lateral movement and are at least somewhat developed w/o too much projection.
Round 2 (Pick #40)
1. OL- A ton of guys could be here as this draft is LOADED with red-chip lineman and possible plug and play starters: Humphries,Flowers,Donovan Smith,Fischer,AJ Cann,Tre Jackson,Cam Erving , Clemmings,Tomlinson
2. DL- Again a number of guys here who may drop with pass rush upside. Preston Smith (my favorite at 40), Odi (up there too but medical scares me), Jordan Phillips, Eddie Goldman, Carl Davis
3. Safety- IMO wild-card round for this position. There may be a few that carry a top 40 grade who are great ahtletes with decent production and very high upside but carry a little projection as CB/S combo types: Qunetin Rollins (7 ints his first year as a starter and seems to be a super versatile athlete), Byron Jones, PJ Williams,Marcus Peters
4. WR- (if not adressed in round 1) there are some intersting names that could be in play here: Brashad Perriman, Agholor,Jalen Strong
5. TE- Only two worthy of consideration at 40 Clive Walford and Maxx Williams (doubtful Maxx makes it to 40 though)
Round 3 (Pick #74)
1. Safety- if Giants don't go FS at #40, round 3 and maybe even moreso round 4 look to be the value rounds for Safeties. Alot of intriguing guys at this point albeit all with some level of projection. Erik Rowe, Shaw, Prewitt, Demarious Randall and the guys listed in the previous round. Funny as I have studied the safeties the reason it is being considered such a weak draft is there are so few 'clean' guys i.e guys that check off the boxes. However, the more I have researched, the more I believe there a surprising number of guys with very high upsides (albeit with some projection).
2. DL- Henry Anderson (great combination of size,speed, strength and very productive final season), Odi (like Tuck may drop due to medical would be great value here) if one of these guys make it here or any drop from the round 2 list it may be hard to pass them up.
3. OL-(only if not adressed in round 2)- some guys like Ali Marpet,Havenstein, Ogbeuhi, Sambrailo or if one of the many listed above fall to round 3
4. WR-(only if not adressed in top 2 rounds) Guys like Lockett (one of the best route runners in this draft), Dorsett, Rashad Greene
5. TE- don't see value here unless Clive Walford somehow drops this far
Finals Notes:
Round 4- If value didn't present itself in rounds 1-3, I'd be shocked if we wait any longer to take a safety with guys mentioned for round 2-3 (if one drops) and then prospects like Eskridge, Drummond. The value at safety really picks up here as I think a lot of intriguing guys with some combination of measurables and production will still be here. I could see them cluster draft in rounds 4-5 here hoping one pan out.
As you know very well, Giants are not strict BPA (especially later rounds) but we don't ignore a guy if he is on a higher row entirely either.
Without being directly involved in Giants front office discussions and intimately understanding their exact visions for the future of the team, we can only speculate using our best guesses of their plans w/the clues presented to us.
That is what I attempted to do.
BB'56, there is literally a boatload of high level red-chip prospects for the OL at 40. More than I've witnessed in a long time. It's highest value at 40 by a considerable margin (while matching need) .
Darkhorse here due to our great need would be a FS. There are a couple uber-athlete combo FS/CB types (kind of like Antrel Rolle). Quentin Rollins while he doesn't have tremendous size, intrigues me the most.
This kid is a former basketball player who casually decides to play football late in his career at a major college program. Wins a starting job and just goes out there and racks up 7 INTS and 9 PBU's his first year starting. For his inexperience, he apparently looked pretty damn natural doing it to. Those types of players who have diverse abilities and grasp concepts very quickly project quite favorably to the NFL.
Interesting point. My opinion though is that WR could be BPA by a considerable margin depending on the type of Defense Steve is intending to primarily run. In all likelihood, I'd be pretty surprised if it wasn't WR or Edgerusher especially with the ridiculous number of red-chip OL likely to be there at 40.
It's a JPP like projection really and as we know projections are never an exact science. However, a few of the pundits seem to feel he has the ability for it as he displayed rare instincts in zone coverage for such an in-experienced player. He also looks to be one of those quite versatile athletes in terms of being good at anything (like an OBJ type) .
one could reduce risk that way by a number of different metrics, the over-looked one is the specialist metric, you are looking for a range of value available in very specific types within positions, as well as the metric that any time you turn one pick into 2 you cut the does not perform risk % in half, as well as the cost / risk %, also (since the trade is down and the player will cost less)
or flip that, two safeties, two dts...etc, you see what I mean.
whereas in round 1, you want true greats that any team would change things up for, an additional risk
and get
2 2nd rounders
2 3rd rounders
and
2 4th rounders, and call it a draft
we would have a freaking dynasty based on your positional vs our needs.
or flip that, two safeties, two dts...etc, you see what I mean.
I would not be opposed to a trade-down and in alot of ways it makes great sense with the number of red-chippers this draft.
However it is also about opportunity cost i.e what would you passing up. For instance, I have a ridiculously high grade on Cooper.
Similiar to OBJ, he may not go top 5 due to a number of circumstances but I think he's the #1 WR in this draft . If he's there at 9, the grade may be too high to pass it up for more picks.
In this new offense which likely will feature many 3 and sometimes 4 WR sets, I salivate at the chance to have 2 cost controlled receiving studs in OBJ and one of Cooper/White/Parker.
Parker is the wild-card here but in almost every mock he still goes top 15. I don't think he is a reach at all and think his upside is higher than White's.
Great question and if they land Cooper round 1, could they make that trade on draft day? There might be too much draft depth at WR for someone to give up a 2nd round pick.
I don't think I give him up for less than a 2nd either as I'm betting he has a big year since he'll be looking for the big payday.
Quote:
expendable, I'm wondering what RR might garner in a trade, last year notwithstanding?
Great question and if they land Cooper round 1, could they make that trade on draft day? There might be too much draft depth at WR for someone to give up a 2nd round pick.
I don't think I give him up for less than a 2nd either as I'm betting he has a big year since he'll be looking for the big payday.
And, though I believe, barring unforeseen complications, Cruz is coming back as himself..If I'm incorrect, trading Randle might not be a priority(assuming it was contemplated in the first place) whether he plays Cruz' position or not..
Being his contract year doesn't hurt either. I see him quite motivated to put on a 'show' this season.
I'm not trading his production for less than a high third round pick and only if we go with a top WR at 9.
WR@9 + OL@40 will likely carry much higher overall value than vice versa IMV.
As for OTs, Fisher doesn't have the power of an ideal RT or the feet of a top LT. Flowers, who won't be there, is a brute, but falls off blocks routinely...he just runs around hitting folks, but often misses his assignment. Clemmings is as unfinished as any OT I've seen in years; some team may take him on athleticism alone, but I sure hope it's not the Giants. And Erving, a very interesting prospect, has been moved all around the OL by FSU...he MIGHT fit our style, but I think he'll go before 40. As for DJ Humphries, he seems to have all the physical attributes of a top LT, but he's downgraded in most mocks I've seen, so I'm guessing I'm missing something there.
Thoughts? I tried to start a discussion about the attributes of the available OGs last week, but no one else really commented on their style of play. It's like no one looked at tape of any of them but were just looking at scouting reports by Rang and the other so-called experts out there. I'd like to know what people have actually seen with their own eyes...and the above is how I see it. I'd love any feedback I can get on observed specifics,as more perspectives are better than one.
Secondly, I really like the tackles. Erving is super versatile and one of the biggest sleepers in this draft IMO. Humphries has grown every year and has good lateral movement, Clemmings is raw but extremely fluid, Fisher is one of my faves he would be OK at RT but he projects as a great LT with a little seasoning IMO. Flowers has alot of what you look for in a prototypical tackle and at minimum should be a strong RT.
Obviously, it all comes down to what the Giants think. However with the sheer number of red-chippers, I'm guessing quite a few rank high on their board.
Truthfully and many here may not want to hear this, but I could even see them waiting until round 3-4 if they really like a sleeper type like Marpet since we have 4 solid starters firmly in place.
I highly doubt Giants will cluster draft in the top few rounds as we could use premium picks at a few different positions.
If you consider this thread an indication that round 2 is loaded with big time offensive linesmen, then you get the very best of the lot.
Caveat- IF picking OL, (there is a chance we go DL in 2) I personally would go guard not tackle, it sounds like the value will be there to meet the need.
If you want to explore the pulling guards, grab one lower down, also, the canuk might do that.
But - you dont get a chance at a pro-bowl type guard very often at all, (or two of them)...so you take that chance, especially in a 'need' year for guardS..
I, for one, never suggested you -completely- eliminate the B from BPA, just that you use balanced judgement in targeting positionally in rounds and for need.
WR
OL/DL
DL/OL
Safety
or
WR
OL/DL
Safety- Rowe,Prewitt,or Randall
DL/OL