This year is the most contested NFL draft pool of any that I can remember. The spinning of the top ten picks is literally making me dizzy, and it starts from the number 1 pick and continues from there. The facts are that there is no consensus for how the draft will shake out right now picks 1 through 10 – and also that come hell or high water the NY Giants will be on the clock at #09.
This is how I see it shake out: the Giants rank players based on their view of positional proto-types, measurables, college production, leadership skills and intelligence. If you accept that, this is why they didn’t pick Aaron Donald in the first round last year. As exciting a player as he is/was, it was and is clear that he simply did not fit what the Giants view as a DT prototype. Yes, he had the speed, but no, he did not have the size. Size is a factor, and like it or not that is going to be a factor with the selection at #09 this year.
That will make players like Scherff, Shelton, Ray, Gregory fall in the Giants tiers and players like Peat, Collins, Dupree, and Wayans rise. The way I see it, all things being equal, the Giants targeted top tier players going into the draft should be WR Cooper, OT Peat, DE Dupree, SS Collins and maybe even CB Wayans: Cooper because of his consistent and fantastic production during his college play, his maturity, and his ability to run a full NFL route tree, Peat because he has all the size and measurables, including the biggest one – the feet, of a true Giants Tackle, Dupree because he has the explosive measurables and size of a true NFL DE, Collins because he has the explosive measureables and prominent history of production of an elite Safety, and Wayans because he has the mesureables and tools to be a top NFL caliber CB.
I see White and Parker fall on the Giants tiers – White because he does not have the consistent production and game speed of his combine – Parker because he’s a little raw on the NFL route tree. I don’t think the Giants are drafting or ranking any QB available this year high enough to make their top ten list. Williams may be on their list but he will be gone. Take all the tweeners and remove them from the target list boys (and girls) – they have to fall on the Giants Board if they stay true to their system. Take Scherff and place him a notch down – he is not a playmaker, and while he has the production he projects to a guard in the NFL; Take Shelton and place him a notch down – he does not have the consistent production to back up his Senior year, and his size is not ideal for being a premier DT on the Giants; Ray and Gregory are great 3/4 pass rushers, but they do not have the right size and frame to be DE on the Giants; neither do Fowler and Beasley, who may be on their list based on their overall skill sets and measurables, but based on frame they probably are not ideal, unless the Giants view them as Linebackers in the 4/3, which they may.
No – I think the argument is, should be, and is going to be, if WR Cooper, OT Peat, DE Dupree, SS Collins and CB Wayans are there when the Giants pick at #09, and they all rank somewhat equally on the Giants Tier system, which position and player is going to have the biggest impact on the team in the next 5 years. And in my view, Peat is not a plug and play – he is probably a project with a high upside. Collins and Wayan would have impact, but not with as big a reach across the defense as an explosive DE, so I see Cooper and Dupree rising to the top as the two biggest potential impacts.
The NFL is a passing league and to compete you need passing weapons, and also the NFL is a passing league which you need to get to the passer to improve your pass protection. If these things are both true then the argument becomes do you inject premiere talent into the Passing game of the Offense, or into Rushing the Passer on Defense.
An explosive Pass Rusher makes all the players in the backfield better, so in that regard – one player makes 4 -5 players in the backfield better, and also raises the level of the rest of the front and middle line - a great pass rusher has the potential to improve 10 other players on defense. A great receiver makes 2-6 players better, the other two WRs on the field, and the fourth and fifth receiver option, and then there is the quarterback. Thus, in terms of impact, if they are equal impact talents I think the answer has to be you chose the Pass Rusher for the Defense, which arguably at this point, hasn’t had a premier talent injection in 3 years; and which needs elevated backfield and line play; and which needs to get the opposing offense off the field.
I posted early after the season ended, that the Giants really have to draft defense at #09 this year. After drafting Wilson, Pugh and OBJ in the first round the past three years, they must now go to adding a premiere pick on defense. I do think that a Cooper would be a great addition to the Giants. It does makes sense to make the Offense a real juggernaut if it is the main strength of the team, but it doesn’t make sense allocation wise, and time wise, to continue to avoid adding premiere players on the Defense, especially when you have brought a new Coordinator in, and have essentially admitted that the Defense has failed. The Giants Defense has more holes and needs more impact right now than the Offense.
By this analysis, Bud Dupree is the pick. He has all the ingredients that the Giants value, the right measurables, the right explosive potential, and the right level of leadership.
Preston Smith DE in second round
However, I disagree with your ultimate picks. I don't see Dupree as a good value at #9.
I'd take Cooper if he was there for us. The thought of him on one side and OBJ on the other makes my mouth drool. And imagine how much better it would be if, by some miracle, Victor Cruz is able to make a comeback!
If Cooper isn't there, then I would take either Scherff or Shelton. The need for a big, mean offensive lineman is obvious, and whether Scherff winds up at tackle or guard really doesn't matter. As for Shelton, I think he's more of a sure thing than any of the "edge" players on the board. An outside pass rusher may be a bigger need, but I smile when I think about the middle of our D line being anchored by Hankins and Shelton. Where's the beef? Here it is!
Look forward to other responses....
I'd take Peat, Lael, and Scherrf over Dupree.
Dupree- is more tall than long and while he has off the charts measurables and explosiveness, it doesn't show on tape. While the weight and strength is there to be an every-down 4-3 DE (unlike most others that might be there at 9) he is slightly more stout built without the prototypical length the Giants seem to shoot for at DE (Look at the JPP,Osi,Tuck,Strahan,Kiwi, Canty lanky-strong body builds as examples). If they see the tentativeness on tape as simply being spread across too many roles/positions, he could still be very much in play at 9. No question the upside here is quite big with his freakish measurables.
Gregory- checks all the boxes for what the Giants look for in their ideal edge rusher except weight. Great length, excellent strength for his weight, long arms, very mature technique in both pass and run for college player etc. Also a pretty damn good combine. Cosell and Boylehart love him and apparently he has played at 255 previously so putting on weight on his frame is not problematic. Could he put on enough weight to be used as an every down DE? Or could he play the 'Kiwi' role of the hybrid LB/DE (but hopefully at a much higher level).
Beasley-Perhaps the most explosive off the edge but obviously not an every-down DE in the Giants 4-3 with his height/build/weight. He would have to be a guy who could play in space at LB then put his hand in the dirt in pass situations. Can he play in space/coverage? I think he is a heck of an athlete with very fluid hips and c.o.d ability so it's possible.
One of these 3 at 9 or Preston Smith or Danielle Hunter at 40 would be my best estimates right now.
jay - I just don't see what teams will have an incentive to allow the Giants to trade down - unless Mariotta or Winston is still on the board and someone below desperately wants to jump up to get one of them in front of another team - it's highly unlikely. All teams are facing the same talent pool.
I'd take their pick 31 they got from Seattle. Take Dupree at 13 and Landon Collins at 31 maybe.
That and I believe that the defensive personnel signings and the return to health of key players that went down with injuries would lead one to believe an offensive player is very likely.
My only caveat would be it is not only the relative gap in the staffs evaluation #s between players AT this spot that counts.
It is in measuring the fall off after that,
and it would have to be a very large fall off to preclude the lower risk(s) and variation benefits brought by a trade down.
Peat carries a lot of bad weight and plays soft.
Collins has average speed, cover ability and poor hands
Wayans is stiff and struggles in space
Dupree production doesn't match measurables
IMO
I'd prefer:
Scherff
White
Collins OL
Parker
I liked your thesis.
some random thoughts to swirl in the mix:
I think another terrific WR radically affects the running game...and the green zone.
To me, if half the field goals of last year in two games were TD's we would have been 8-8.
That's why for the short run I am not so sure White would not be better than Cooper for us ...a superior green zone and 3rd down weapon.
If the giants 3rd down conversion rate from either a defense forced to defend too many weapons or a play made by some one other than Beckham or Randle went up 10% we would have won another game and been 9-7.
So to me the connection to 9 and 7 is tighter with a WR than a De who affects the other defensive players in a cascade that is more emphemeral on defense than it is on offensive skill players.
Wider and deeper defensive sets equals the second extra on every play for us to run or pass...its just that simple....one more WR threat gives us 1 more second for our offense on every play....and can hold that differentiation even if we have an injury to OBJ or Randle or the next WR.
That all said...we need to remember than this whole draft feels one round less if the same players were available last year. I doubt any WR in 2015 picked at 4 would have been better than Beckham at 12 in 2014. and the same kind of referendum on the 2015 draft follows for many positions and players.
Lastly...to me the defense of the next five years is able to play 3-4 and 4-3 depending on the play option and read option tendencies of the offense...and able to play man and COver 2...depending. I think this is what Belichek is doing on defense and offense.
So to me the prototype I hope they adopt is flexibility. With Ellis and Hankins and JPP and Jenkins...we are close to a 3-4 ...if ...if we had a pass rushing threat who cut the time the QB has.
To me...JPP is a coverage and second effort sacker. He rarely is first off the line and has few moves for a elite pass rusher. the two ways to cut QB time and options to through to....is up the middle and an elite edge speed rusher. To me that's Shelton so Hankins can crash in or Beasley or Gregory so we cut down time from the edge...or force a RB or TE in for protection...thereby limiting the QB options.
I see Dupree as stoppable by an OL with no help back. I think we try to be 4-3 on the first two downs and 3-4 on the third....and 3-4 on run to the edges teams.
To me the only defensive player at 9 is an elite first step terror to keep a player in if not hurry the QB.
I think DE size prototype shrunk when the passing rules and the read option came in
Good discussion. Thanks gidie
The only low risk 2015 contributions without changing scheme or prototype or gambling on a project or an out of shape bad weight guy are found at OG and WR.
now...I do agree than in McAdoo's system sending more skill players out behind a terrific 5 man OL is a heavier emphasis than in previous versions of the NFL...hence OG can no longer be left to the 4th or 5th round.
I dunno...I am stunned at the FA period so far. How in the world they did not get a safety and an inside OL player is beyond me? How they would go into the season with one WR who has hamstring history and Randle who was fined heavily and often for lacking the discipline to be a team player and a slot player who tore up his knee badly is beyond me?
its like we are watching a different reality then the FO
In my view - the Offensive issues last year were less tied to WR and more to running game. As I am only addressing the first round pick above - I will say this. As Coughlin has said - and someone posted above - the Giants Offense needs to stay on the field longer to give the defense some breathers. I fully believe that - and my big concern is time munching - and for that you need a running game. We do need another offensive lineman - and Pick 2 is appropriate for that - get us another RB in round 4 while you're at it and another DLineman in Round 3 - or even flip it - Dlineman in round 2 - Olineman in Rd 3.
The key is no more 3 and outs -- that's what killed us last year - a bazillion three and outs. It was the biggest difference between us and the Cowboys -- and Chip Kelley is even paying it lip service. You'll buy more than 1 second a play with a dominant running game on offense - and this will free up some more receivers too.
Hey having 2 great receivers is not a hardship -- but I prefer a balanced power game myself - and I believe Coughlin does too - all three phases of the game have to click to be successful and ultimately a lopsided Offensive contest is not really our style.
2) I agree that it hard to get to the playoffs in the open stadiums of the NFL EAST without a running game
I agree with Coach Mason the edge rushers that could project to NYG are Beasley, Gregory, and Dupree.
I'd wager Cooper and White as gone, and Beasley too. In many mocks Gregory is also gone.
Run a number of mock iterations, and we're probably looking at Gregory or Dupree, or Peat or Scherff at #9.
Of course we're more than five weeks away and things figure to change.
Deal!
I agree with Coach Mason the edge rushers that could project to NYG are Beasley, Gregory, and Dupree.
I'd wager Cooper and White as gone, and Beasley too. In many mocks Gregory is also gone.
Run a number of mock iterations, and we're probably looking at Gregory or Dupree, or Peat or Scherff at #9.
Of course we're more than five weeks away and things figure to change.
Thank JonC...a couple more comments:
Ross went to scout Peat and likely Henry Anderson during Stanford's pro-day. Apparently Peat did pretty well so perhaps that changes things a bit.
Like Gregory alot and think with some weight he can play that Kiwi role and brings the length the Giants seem to covet on DL as well as disrupt passing lanes on the second level.
Beasley also would bring an intriguing dynamic but he would likely need to play significant time at LB.
He is a dynamic raw DE prospect that requires good coaching to take his game to its max potential, but if he get's it - look out.
Moreover, I don't see a much of a difference between Dupree and Ziggy 2013 as prospects. Ziggy was the longer shaped athlete, but all else is equal, if not in Dupree's favor.
An elite DE would be the ideal pick at #9, since it would answer a need for a bookend to JPP. But I don't think there's going to be a DE worth a the #9 pick. The Giants form their own opinions and don't care what GBN and Mayock and the like say, and if they have him as BPA they'll take him, but I doubt he will BPA at #9.
I am more and more convinced they're going to look to take a guard the second round, because that's where the value will be, unless someone highly ranked on their board plummets to #40. I think they look for a big time playmaker at some position, ANY position, at #9.
Preston Smith DE in second round
You never can tell. However, IMHO you nailed it.
His whole game tape isn't great re getting after the QB, but that's not what he was asked to do. Also, at the POA, I think his tackles and tackles for a loss #s are lower than they might have been because opponents ran away from him like the plague.
If I had time, I'd do some kind of numerical analysis of the % effectiveness he had, when run AT or when he pout his hand in the dirt to go after the QB in passing situations. I think it's higher, as a %, than many realize. But just guessing, no time to do the work...
If looking down the road, I can see Dupree being the pick. The Giants use Dline guys rather lightly their first year so Dupree won't have a chance to make other players better in this year, IMO.
Do the Giants want this year or hereafter to be more important? It may come down to that answer.
OL
WR
DE
CB
S ?
Can't really see another position based on team makeup as we sit.
Appreciate the input.
Blogs -- that's quite possible - but I think there will be at east some discussion about the Alabama Safety - In my opinion this kid is a real player and the Giants have had a taste of Saban trained backfield players. I love the tapes I've seen of him -- he's a real hard hitter and plays much more explosive and faster than his combine number suggest. He reminds me of Rolle quite a bit, and they look to have similar body types and physicality,
Too many questions about Collins. As long as there are legitimate concerns about his ability to play a deep Safety, I do not believe he will be given serious consideration.
I can see them taking Beasley, but only as a LB. They have to believe Beasley is a natural football player doing everything a LB needs to do. If he is just a light in the seat DE, he will not be given serious consideration.
I do not see Dupree at #9, but I could see us taking him after a trade-down.
We need inside organization knowledge to legitimately evaluate WR chances. If they are convinced that Randle is breaking out in 2015, they probably do not rank the WRs as high as we do. However, if they view Randle as one and done as a Giant, then there is a very possible convergence of need and value there at #9.
TB - Winston
Tenn - Mariotta (traded to Philly)
Jax - Williams
Oak - Cooper
Wash - Fowler
NYJ - Beasley
Chic - White
Atl - Ray
NYG - Shelton, Scherff, Gregory, Peat, Collins, Dupree
You can't go wrong with either Shelton or Scherff, but I think the Giants go with their biggest weakness and pick defensively and take Shelton. If Shelton is gone, then they take Scherff or Peat.
WR is probably the strongest value but Cooper and White will probably both be gone. Beasley probably gone. Who might be there that fits NYG? Gregory might be there, Peat or Scherff should be there. Will Dupree rise high enough or would NYG reach on OO from UCLA (or is another DE they overvalue relative to the scouting consensus).
The safety Collins if we have no safety.
we have no LG and a questionable RG. and a little less questionable center and RT.
Man did we back ourselves into a 2-3 year corner going into this draft.
I think they improved themselves in FA...but wow do they have instability going forward
On the other hand the same year they done have one true off the snap pass rusher (I view JPP as slow off the snap and limited pass moves and largely a clean up or coverage sack guy....so many of his sacks and pressures are against really weak or second team OT) and even he may not be here next year.
Its deja vu with 1964. Hopefully this time they recover systemically rather than churn bad trades
NYG should get a premium player that also fills a hole at #9, I'm confident in that. One of WR, DE, OL should be there to scoop up.
Gregory otoh was reportedly quite sick and actually lost weight before the combine. He has played at 255 before and apparently his longer frame can handle up to 270 lbs.
Gregory is about as prototypical of the pass rusher body type Giants covet says the weight. If Giants feel he can still play at a high level at 255+ , I think he checks off pretty much every box even more so than Dupree who while somewhat tall is not long and is more square than angular like Gregory.
The safety Collins if we have no safety.
we have no LG and a questionable RG. and a little less questionable center and RT.
Man did we back ourselves into a 2-3 year corner going into this draft.
I think they improved themselves in FA...but wow do they have instability going forward
Sad to say, this is all too true. Can Reese do anything about it at this point? Not going to be fixed in a single year.
Agreed. Not one of the edge rushers comes without a level of projection NYG may be uncomfortable with at that high in draft.
Not that I am advocating Gregory per se and also agree sometimes he gets washed out vs the run . However I've also seen him hold up pretty well at times too. For a player his weight he is quite strong and shows suprising tenacity, enthusiasm and willingness to fight at the POA even when stymied.