2015 NFL Draft Preview - QB

CURRENT NYG QBs ON ROSTER

Eli Manning – 34 years old – Signed through 2015

Ryan Nassib – 25 years old – Signed through 2016

Ricky Stanzi – 27 years old – Signed through 2015

WHERE THEY STAND:

Could be it be that the NYG brass is going to let the 11 year starter enter the final year of his contract without an extension? That appears to be the case. I would put the heavy odds on him being here for at least another 3-4 years but even the most faithful of Manning supporters need to admit that the post-Eli plan needs to be thought about. Franchise QBs are incredibly hard to find, I get it. When you have one, you need to hold on tight and pay market value if not more, I get it. Manning had one of his best overall seasons in year one of a new offensive system, I get it. The issue here is a simple case of economics; is Manning worth a $20+ cap number as he enters the final years of his contract? With the amount of holes on this roster, a credible case could be made for either direction. Nassib hasn’t showed enough during preseason games to warrant confidence for down the road. Perhaps he shines during practice and we have no idea. Stanzi is a training camp body. But to say NYG needs a fresh, young QB on the depth chart is far from inappropriate.

TOP 10 GRADES:

1 – Jameis Winston – Florida State - 6’4/231 – 80

Upside Pro Comparison – Ben Roethlisberger/PIT

The necessary talent is there. Winston has all the physical tools you want out of a QB. His size, presence, arm strength, accuracy, and mobility to warrant the first round grade. Would I consider him an elite thrower? No. An elite mover? No. However one thing he does have (and NYG fans will understand the importance of this) is the poise he maintains through tight situations. Winston proved he is a winner. He can have a horrid first half but his short memory allows him to come out firing in the fourth quarter and look unstoppable when the team needs him most. His off the field maturity issues are well documented, however. It may even cause some teams to cross him off their board entirely. When I see him play, I think a Big Ben type with less arm power. If his head is on straight, he can be a guy that teammates love, a guy that wins, and a guy that fans will cling to over time. The grade includes a few points off due to his character problems.

2 – Marcus Mariota – Oregon - 6’4/222 – 79

Upside Pro Comparison – Robert Griffin III/WAS

Last fall I viewed Mariota as an elite level (90+) QB prospect that I would want on the NYG roster as soon as round 1. I love his ability to move. He can change the game with his mobility. He is more than just an athlete too. He has some zip on his balls with a quick release and most importantly, his accuracy on the move is spot on. I’ve seen every 2014 game tape of Oregon and I have to admit I jumped the gun on him. He remains uncomfortable in the pocket and the simple throws were routinely missed. His mechanics as a pocket passer are flawed and his experience starting under center is as limited as it gets. There is something about QBs that rely on athletic ability that just screams “No” to me as well. Mariota doesn’t have the Cam Newton body type. I can’t see him taking an extra 10 hits per game and lasting, a la Robert Griffin. He’s a mature kid and he does make plays, but there is more development that needs to occur here thus a larger margin for eventual error. I would still take Mariota on this team but not before round 2, he’ll be long gone by then.

3 – Brett Hundley – UCLA – 6’3/226 – 74

Upside Pro Comparison – Cam Newton/CAR

Another spread formation, shotgun-only signal caller that has the athletic tools to be the guy in this class. Hundley has a thicker body type than Mariota and has just as much ability to make a difference running the ball. His inconsistency is maddening, however. He is a good thrower short and intermediate but his accuracy throwing the ball downfield is poor. He is another guy that needs to sit at least a year. Is there upside here? Sure. But I would put odds on him being the backup type that will bounce around the league but disappoints.

4 – Garrett Grayson – Colorado State – 6’2/213 - 73

Upside Pro Comparison – Matt Moore/MIA

Really good athlete, underrated speed and quickness. Some QBs have that sixth sense in the pocket and have the extra level of quickness within the tackle box. Grayson has that. He can throw deep with power and accuracy. There is a WR from Colorado State that will be draft eligible next year…some are labeling him a top tier prospect. He’s good, but Grayson made him look a lot better. He can throw guys open, throw to a spot…etc. If I have a void at QB when it comes to youth, I think Grayson is the mid-round value I am going after.

5 – Jerry Lovelocke – Prarie View A& M - 71

Loved what I saw out of him at the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl. He has a really smooth, quick, strong, powerful release and arm. A guy this big can be worked with when it comes to a dual threat player. Lovelocke is and always will be a passer first/runner second, but his size and presence makes him a dual threat. He is likely a practice squad guy because of how raw his footwork is and he didn’t play in a complicated system in college, but for where you can get him I like the value.

6 – Sean Mannion – Oregon State – 6’6/229 - 71

Upside Pro Comparison – Mike Glennon/TB

Illustrious career including 45 starts, leaves school as the Pac 12’s all time leading passer with over 13,000 yards and 11 OSU passing records. The 3 time team captain shows all the intangibles you want in a Quarterback. Loves the game and works hard on and off the field to make himself better. The fifth year senior received a 3rd round grade from the Advisory Board last year after his record setting Junior campaign. He took a step back in 2014, playing with less talent around him. This classic pocket passer has the tools and intangibles to be a starter or primary backup at the next level but he is a limited-ceiling type player. The lack of athletic ability is certainly troubling and you know it’s only going to get worse as he gets older. You don’t need to be a superb athlete, but Mannion looks stuck in mud sometimes. That’s tough to accept out of such a young player.

8 – Bryan Bennett – SE Louisiana State – 6’2/211 - 69

Upside Pro Comparison – Tyler Thigpen/CLE

Was at Oregon for awhile but once he figured out that Marcus Mariota was….well Marcus Mariota…he left for SE Louisiana to pursue the NFL dream. He played well there but didn’t dominate the way you want a small school QB to. With that said, Bennett is a very good athlete and has the strongest arm of any QB in this class. He can really spin it. Hits guys on the move. I like how Bennett looked for extra work at the Combine. He was always the guy getting extra throws in. His accuracy on the move and downfield is poor and some guys say that can’t be corrected. I’d take a chance on him in the later rounds.

9 – Bryce Petty – Baylor – 6’3/230 - 69

Upside Pro Comparison – Rex Grossman/RET

Petty comes from a spread-style offense, always in the shotgun, minimal reads…etc. Every year these guys are becoming more and more common. It’s not a huge deal. But I really didn’t like what I saw out of him at the Senior Bowl and it matched a lot of what I don’t like on tape. He misses a lot of easy throws. He gets overly-trigger happy under pressure. He loses sense of his throwing mechanics. What I do like here is the blend of toughness and leadership, however. Coaches/Players/Support Staff and the scouts I get the opportunity to speak with all rave about his daily approach to the game. I want that out of a young QB. He doesn’t lack talent at all. He can throw, he can move. I just hate that I see the same mistakes over and over again with him. Still worth a late round pick if NYG is looking for a QB and he falls.

10 – Anthony Boone – Duke – 6’0/231 – 67

Upside Pro Comparison – Tarvaris Jackson – SEA

I’ve been wanting to like Boone for over a year now because he shows glimpses. One of the strongest arms in the draft. Has easy arm power, can put that ball on a line for 20+ yards with little effort. Drives the ball downfield, generates a lot of zip from his lower body, fluid throwing motion. Can throw the ball well from unorthodox positions. Good runner, shows the ability to see the action around him and make proper cuts to pick up extra yards. Struggles to make multiple reads. Too quick to tuck the ball and scramble. Accuracy is woefully inconsistent, doesn’t hit his target often enough on the run. He is so inconsistent and its bothersome but man, he has talent that a lot of good QBs simply do not possess.

NYG APPROACH

This draft class has the weakest group of QBs I have seen since I’ve been doing this. There isn’t an elite prospect. There isn’t a lot of depth. And there aren’t any guys in the later rounds that I can say with confidence will far-exceed their draft slot. Drafting QBs in the middle to late rounds is more of a crapshoot than anything, however.

I don’t think NYG is going after a QB with one of their 8 picks. Could they go after an UDFA to have in training camp? Sure. But when it comes to where this team is and where they are heading, unless a great value falls to them they should opt towards using their selections on other positions. Put me in the camp of people that thinks this team should NOT give Manning a blank check. Yes it exposes long-term risk at a position that makes or breaks success in this league, but it is going to happen soon anyway. Ideally Manning signs a 3-4 year deal at the same level he is being paid now, and the replacement project gets put in motion in another year or two.

And if Mariota falls to #9 overall….final answer is no. I’ve been back and forth a few times, but it’s just not worth the risk of passing on guys that are graded higher.