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| Taking a look at a total of 10 mock drafts at Rotoworld, NFL.com and CBS, the general consensus is that there is no consensus beyond the Top 2 picks. Here are a few observations: 1. Everyone thinks Jameis Winston is going first. It’s not exactly breaking news at this point that the Buccaneers are expected to take Winston with the first overall pick in the draft. All 10 mock drafts had Winston going first. 2. Almost everyone thinks Leonard Williams is going second. One mock draft has Marcus Mariota going to Tennessee with the second overall pick. Eight of the other nine mock drafts had Williams, the USC defensive lineman, going No. 2. And the other mock draft that didn’t have Williams going second had Nebraska’s Randy Gregory going second — and that comes with an asterisk, because that mock draft came out before the news broke that Gregory had failed a marijuana test at the Combine, which may hurt his draft stock. 3. If Mariota doesn’t go second, no one knows where he’s going. Various mock drafts have him going third, sixth, seventh, 10th, 12th and 13th. Predicting where Mariota will land this year may prove as hard as predicting where Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater would land last year. 4. Dante Fowler looks like a very high pick. Most mock drafts have Fowler, the Florida outside linebacker, going third overall to Jacksonville. Everyone has Fowler going in the Top 8. 5. The Raiders will draft Kevin White or Amari Cooper. The biggest debate in this year’s draft may be about whether the best wide receiver is West Virginia’s White or Alabama’s Cooper. There seems to be little doubt that Oakland will draft one of them. Seven mock drafts have White going fourth overall to the Raiders, and the other three have Cooper going fourth overall to the Raiders. 6. Vic Beasley is all over the map. Beasley, the Clemson pass rusher, could go No. 3 to Jacksonville, No. 22 to Pittsburgh, or anywhere in between, depending on whom you believe. 7. Iowa’s Brandon Scherff is probably the top offensive lineman. Six of the mock drafts have Scherff as the first lineman off the board, but there’s widespread disagreement about how high he’ll go: Perhaps as high as No. 5, but there may also not be any offensive linemen in the Top 10. 8. At least one running back is going in the first round. The first-round running back once looked like an endangered species, but this year everyone agrees that either Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon or Georgia’s Todd Gurley, or both, will be a first-round pick. 9. No one really knows anything. A month away is still far too early to predict the draft with any degree of accuracy. All it takes is one team early in the draft to surprise us, and the domino effect will completely reshape the rest of the first round. And if that surprise early on is the Buccaneers taking someone other than Winston, you can tear up every mock draft right then and there. |
What we can't afford to do is draft someone at #9 who isn't going to be a special player. To pick top 10 and get a JAG (just a guy) or worse (bust) would be terrible for the franchise.
I'm not sure how strong this OL group really is. Don't just compare the prospects to each other, but prospects in other draft classes. If Peat or Scherff or Collins are potential Pro Bowlers, then I have no problem. But if they are another Justin Pugh? I don't take one of them at #9.
Is the pass rusher just a role player? I don't take him at #9.
(1) How good is Peat?
(2) How good is Scherff?
What we can't afford to do is draft someone at #9 who isn't going to be a special player. To pick top 10 and get a JAG (just a guy) or worse (bust) would be terrible for the franchise.
I'm not sure how strong this OL group really is. Don't just compare the prospects to each other, but prospects in other draft classes. If Peat or Scherff or Collins are potential Pro Bowlers, then I have no problem. But if they are another Justin Pugh? I don't take one of them at #9.
Eric - problem is , alot of insiders say this draft really lacks 'special' players. They're night not be 10 elite players in this draft.
Is the pass rusher just a role player? I don't take him at #9.
Eric - problem is , alot of insiders say this draft really lacks 'special' players. They're night not be 10 elite players in this draft.
What we can't afford to do is draft someone at #9 who isn't going to be a special player. To pick top 10 and get a JAG (just a guy) or worse (bust) would be terrible for the franchise.
I'm not sure how strong this OL group really is. Don't just compare the prospects to each other, but prospects in other draft classes. If Peat or Scherff or Collins are potential Pro Bowlers, then I have no problem. But if they are another Justin Pugh? I don't take one of them at #9.
Is the pass rusher just a role player? I don't take him at #9.
Absolutely agree with every word
But I'm not convinced that is the case this year.
There are good players out there.
And I imagine that many on the site blew a gasket when we took Beckham.
Have a feeling we go wr though.
But I'm not convinced that is the case this year.
There are good players out there.
I agree with you....I just feel like based on what the "experts" are saying...its underwhelming in the 1st round.
For instance, one would have to admit there are no real clear cut slam dunks. Most drafts have a few. There is no Orlando Pace, Matt Kalil, Andrew Luck, Suh, Clowney, Calvin Johnson type players where you can say..."If that guy stays healthy...he's an 8-10x all pro.
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I hear that claim all of the time - sometimes it is true - I think it was the Hakeem Nicks draft that was pretty bad for most teams.
But I'm not convinced that is the case this year.
There are good players out there.
I agree with you....I just feel like based on what the "experts" are saying...its underwhelming in the 1st round.
For instance, one would have to admit there are no real clear cut slam dunks. Most drafts have a few. There is no Orlando Pace, Matt Kalil, Andrew Luck, Suh, Clowney, Calvin Johnson type players where you can say..."If that guy stays healthy...he's an 8-10x all pro.
even someone like Sy'56 says that Winston and Mariota are not elite QB's compared to QB's in the past. That's only his opinion, but alot of people are saying that.
Using a scoring system of 1pt for each player selected in Rd1 and an additional pt if matched to the right team (For a total possible of 64 pts), the leader for five year average is just 44pts. Only 7 of 35 'pros' have a five yr avg score over 40 (including the much maligned Mel Kiper Jr).
Last year, one Mocker named 28 of the 32 picks, but he only matched to 3 of the teams correctly! The best anyone did for number of matches was 8. That means the best anyone could do, out of 115 mocks submitted, was get just 25% fully correct.
Huddle Report Mock Draft Competition - ( New Window )
has 1-2 possible really good Left Tackle's (Peat, Scherff, maybe Collins)
Zero highly graded Centers...they're might not be a center drafted in rounds 1-2.
Some solid guards and right tackles.
2-3 really good WR's and an bunch of "good" WR's.
1 safety that might get drafted in the 1st round (Collins), maybe another one that gets drafted in 2nd round. After that its considered a "weak" class.
1 possible "shut down" corner....Waynes.
Some really good RB's, but only 1-2 that go in the 1st round. A bunch go in the 2nd and 3rd round.
Some really good edge rushers, but they're all 235-250 lbs...which is really odd compared to years past. Alot of these guys are "tweeners."
Some really good DT prospects in the 1st and 2nd round. Deep class.
A weak TE class...maybe 1 gets drafted in round 1...maybe another in round 2.
This is all based on what "experts" are grading these players at. All this being said, of course there will be several players drafted that end up being "surprisingly" good in the NFL...and guys that are drafted in mid rounds that will end up being pro bowlers.
(1) How good is Peat?
(2) How good is Scherff?
^^^ Completely agree with this. If the Giants buy into either one of these guys and think they'll really upgrade the OL then that's who the Giants are going with. People tend to forget how important it is to control the football. If you can run the ball and give your Defense rest that a tremendous help to the defense. A line with one of these guys, plus Schwartz, Pugh, Beatty, and Richburg gives the Giants their best OL in years.
(1) How good is Peat?
(2) How good is Scherff?
Funny thing is I think neither is as good as Jake Fisher or DJ Humphries and some have both in the 2nd. That's the problem with this draft. That's part of the problem with this draft. Value, talent and need aren't mixing like previous years for us as well as other teams.
2) Get a starting caliber OL in one the first few rds
3) Fortify the Defense with the bulk of the draft
I do like Schreff. He comes from a much stronger program and is close to Zack Martin. He basically is this year's Zack Martin, but not as good. We know the Giants really liked Martin last year. Schreff is going to be someone they are considering. He will start Day 1 and will upgrade the OL if picked, but I'm not sure he's the OL the NYG would target.
I also think there are some interesting things to consider with trends with 1st rd picks the NYG have made at the top of the draft. In recent years let's look at some recent top picks. Wilson, JPP, Beckhum. All were juniors. All were play makers. None were at a position of need. Pugh I think graduated early (not sure) but I'm discounting him, he was at a position of need. Amukara wasn't at need either when picked. I do think he was a senior. These first round picks are all skill positions. difference maker positions.
So the trend suggests they are going for an underclassman, and a playmaker. Reese has said it himself.
The most set positions on the roster are RB and QB. It's very unlikely they go there.
WR is interesting. Their may be a unique talent there. At the same time, it's hard to know what the giants think of the guys on the roster besides Beckum and Cruz. How much do they trust Randle? How high are they, if at all on Washington? They seem confident in Cruz's recovery, but that might not be to week 7.
Where I think the value is going to line up with a special player is DT, WR, and OL. Some names I really like are Fisher OT from Oregon, Cooper if he somehow falls from Alabama (I have a hard time with him getting past the raiders), and Brown DT from Texas. I can see the Giants valuing Fisher very highly since he looks to have elite LT traits. I think he will move up boards and will be pushing into top 15. Brown will move up as well. Keep in Mind both Jenkins (old) and Ellis are on 1 yr deals. If Bromley develops and is special having an interior of Hankins, Bromley and Brown is downright scary and the DE play would improve just by having to block those guys.
The other thing I hope the NYG do, after the first RD (assuming they don't take an OL) is go OL in RD 2. Another starting caliber player is needed. 40th pick will yield someone good. Be it a RT only prospect or a Guard there will be a starter there. So go get that player or go get a starter in RD 3. But get a guy who can start in the first 3 reds on OL.
The other thought with the draft is the 2 most tenuous positions on the roster right now are DE and Secondary. JPP is on franchise. Selfie and Ayers have a year left on their contracts. We could be down to Wynn and Moore next year. Safety has no proven starters. So what I'd like to see with the balance of the draft is focusing on these positions. I hope at least 2 of the first 4 picks are on defense and 3 of the remaining for our on defense as defense was clearly our weakness last year.
How good are the offensive linemen compared to previous years and can any of them play LT?
Can any of the edge rushers play 4-3 DE in our scheme. Gregory is a pothead.
Kevin White only excelled for one season. Is Shelton just a NT and if so is he worth the #9 pick?
Parker has had a broken foot.
It's not an easy evaluation and therefore there is little consensus on how things are going to pan out. I think we're going to get a very good player but #9 is like tip toeing through a minefield this year.
Collins would appear to be a long shot..I tried to connect the dots figuring aside from McCourty, there were no other S that appealed to us, at least financial-wise, so my mind drifted to the possibility of Collins at 9. However, it would appear they they cover that base later in the draft
Why bring back Spags if they did not have a plan. I think players like Gregory, Fowler, Ray, and Beasley could all be impact players in todays NFL. That in my view is the key, and I think you may see a real run at these type players after the first 3 or 4 picks, and we may just get involved in that, plus the Giants have tried o add this type player in that past, without success, is that because it was a bad idea, or did we just not have the right player and the right system to make it work?
I don't think you can put much credence in mock drafts as they try to marry players to a certain team based purely on need alone. It's kind of frustrating and annoying at times IMO.
Outside of the top 2 or 3 picks they are just basically guessing. The so called (experts) never take into consideration how a team puts a premium on certain positions over others. Actually outside of Winston to the buc's,most of them are guessing about the 2nd and 3rd picks as well. Look at last year with Bortles. No one expected that one!
There was even speculation about nassib going in the 1st to buffalo.
No one had Beckham going to the Giants at 12 last year,and prior to the combine I heard talks about him being a 2nd round pick.
I didn't know to much about him until after the combine and once I saw him doing the positon drills and watched some tape he was guy. I remember raving about him to my father and hoping he would be the pick. So you can imagine how happy I was when they picked him. I can't remember being so excited to see a draft pick play in a Giants uniform. Even more so then Jeremy Shockey who I really liked coming out of Miami.
Basically Mock drafts are about worthless. IMO if a player is mocked to the Giants over and over again,you can pretty much bet that that's not going to be the pick!!
I'm not as Enamoured with Whites 4.35 forty as most,infact I read that the league had notified all the teams that Coopers combine times were actually incorrect and that he ran a 4.38 officially.
While Cooper is the superior route runner I believe Parker highpoints and attacks the ball in the air better than anyone in this draft. He is definitely the most explosive of the 3 with the ball in his hands after the catch. With White you don't see the 4.35 speed on film consistently.
Both Cooper and White averaged under 14 yards per catch last year,while Parker averaged over 19 yards per rec. 18.6 his Sophmore season and over 16 yards per the other 2 seasons.
IF Devante doesn't miss 7 Games last year he may be talked about as the 1st receiver off the board. 45 catches for 855 yrds in 6 games. Over 200 against florida state who had one of the best Defenses in CFB. His #'s would have eclipsed even Coopers had he played in all his games this year.
If Cooper is gone when the Ginats select at 9,I think just like last year it's an easy decision. Just like reese said in 2014,when it was our turn to pick,there was nothing to talk about. The pick was Beckham all the way.
If Beasley is there and the Giants think he can be a 3 down LB in a 43 defense then that may make the decision more difficult. We know he can definitely put his hand in the dirt and rush the passer on 3rd downs and obvious passing downs. I guess they would have to decide wether they believe he can play in space and cover tightends and backs out of the backfield. They can't and wont draft a part time player with the 9th pick.
What we can't afford to do is draft someone at #9 who isn't going to be a special player. To pick top 10 and get a JAG (just a guy) or worse (bust) would be terrible for the franchise.
A 1st round bust would be terrible whether we're picking 9th or 29th, but I think you have to accept the fact that there just may not be a "special" player available to us this year - even at #9. So, if there is no blue-chip player there, I hope we get the "reddest" of red-chips, a player who may not be a future HOFer, but who's much more than a JAG.
I also hope we can do that well into Day 3. Except for losses due to injuries, our 1st round picks haven't been killing us. It's the blown picks after the 1st round that have done that, and it really needs to change with this draft.
If Peat, Scherff, Collins, and Pugh were all in the same draft class, Pugh would be the last one taken. The first three are universally considered to be 1st-round talents, whereas Pugh was considered borderline 1st-round/2nd round. Lucky for him there was a run on OTs and we were desperate.
I don't see the Giants becoming enamored with any of the edge rushers who might be available at #9.
The only true difference maker type players in this draft are Williams, Cooper and Beasley. It looks like Williams won't be there. There is a chance Cooper or Beasley could be there. Not sure I want to go WR 2 years in a row. So, my hope is that Beasley is there. He can be used in so many ways. NASCAR package right away. Maybe play WLB or DE in the base. JPP is not locked up long term.
He would be a very exciting pick, no doubt.
I agree it's too early to tell, but if he continues to play for a decade the way he did his rookie year, he'll be more than just the best player of the 2014 draft. He's potentially THAT special.
The top Oline guys look like their floor would be an above average guard. That would suck, IMO.