Consensus Draft

position for each player for all the mocks - add the numbers and divide by 22? I ask because of Mariota at #8 and I don't think I've seen the Falcons associated with Mariota.

due to the number of selections made of the player

Funny how Scherff keeps showing up at 9...

what I find interesting is both that there is a strong consensus that Sherff's relative strength is at the 9th rank, and that Mariotta's statistical ranking could make him available at 9. Mariotta realistically at 9 means there is a strong possibility that the Giants could find themselves in a trade down situation. I believe if this were the case the Giants would strongly consider that this year. A lot of names they've been associated with are between 9 and 18 there and they might not feel they are really losing value with the talent available to them within 9 positions.

Rarely is the top 9 but is almost always picked by 16. Your averages may be off a bit.

Equals Devante on your auto correct.

I didn't consider anyone who did not make it into a top ten in weighting the rankings here. This is why I find this interesting.

Hey you can make statistics do things you want them to - I took the premise here that players making it into the top ten were the smoke that make them rank better.

Parker, no matter what your personal view point is, is not on any mock in the top 10 that I looked at.

In comment 12208211 gidiefor said:

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what I find interesting is both that there is a strong consensus that Sherff's relative strength is at the 9th rank, and that Mariotta's statistical ranking could make him available at 9. Mariotta realistically at 9 means there is a strong possibility that the Giants could find themselves in a trade down situation. I believe if this were the case the Giants would strongly consider that this year. A lot of names they've been associated with are between 9 and 18 there and they might not feel they are really losing value with the talent available to them within 9 positions.

I would really like Cooper or White at 9 and then OG at 40. Nothing against Scherff or Collins for the line, but it seems the OL qualit likely available at 40 won't be far below Scherff of Collins. I'll take Sy'56 at his word on that.

I find that list sobering -- If these rankings are showing the proper smoke/fire there is no way Cooper or White make it to 9 - so wishes and hopes for that scenario could be irrelevant

In comment 12208226 gidiefor said:

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I find that list sobering -- If these rankings are showing the proper smoke/fire there is no way Cooper or White make it to 9 - so wishes and hopes for that scenario could be irrelevant

No worries. With Tenn, Jax and Oakland in the top 10, at least one and maybe two will have a surprise/questionable pick!

draft Mariotta it could make a good player other than Scherff drop to the Giants, But I could see:
1. Winston
2.Williams
3. Cooper
4. Fowler
5 White
6. Gregory
7. Beasley
8. Ray
9???

Maybe Mariotta and Trae Wayans get into the top 8 creating more choices. Maybe Scherff is their guy.

Scherff wouldn't be in the top ten. Not even close.

it's true that many mocks put Scherff at 9 - but he appears all over the middle of the top ten in the top mocks

In comment 12208369 gidiefor said:

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it's true that many mocks put Scherff at 9 - but he appears all over the middle of the top ten in the top mocks

What teams are he projected to besides us?

how much Fowler went up since the combine. He was my pre-combine guess as the Giant's pick. Now it looks like there's no way.

I suspect at least a few teams do look at overall mock draft rankings.

gidiefor: I think that your top 10 qualification in at least 1 mock is pretty fair.

In comment 12208377 robbieballs2003 said:

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In comment 12208369 gidiefor said: Quote: it's true that many mocks put Scherff at 9 - but he appears all over the middle of the top ten in the top mocks What teams are he projected to besides us?

robbie -- I've seen at least the Skins, Falcon and Rams - I think Chicago too

I have seen any mock drafts lately but the ones I have seen didn't have that. While I could see those teams needing an OL, I just don't see Scherff being the top rated player at that point and all of those teams need defense worse than an OL.

I haven't

In comment 12208425 robbieballs2003 said:

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I have seen any mock drafts lately but the ones I have seen didn't have that. While I could see those teams needing an OL, I just don't see Scherff being the top rated player at that point and all of those teams need defense worse than an OL.

You could say the same thing about the Giants -- Scherff is a good football player robbie

There are things I am concerned about. Outside of Atlanta, most of these teams are 3-4 teams. Most of the available defensive talent is 3-4 talent.

In comment 12208436 robbieballs2003 said:

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There are things I am concerned about. Outside of Atlanta, most of these teams are 3-4 teams. Most of the available defensive talent is 3-4 talent.

This is what I have been saying for a while.. this is not the year to have that pick just on the edge of the top ten. This is a year you really wanted to be top 5..

What the Giants really need is for a few things to happen..

Either the Titans take Mariota @ 2. That would push Williams down. Which would more that likely push some other players down toward the Giants.. Cooper.. White.. possibly Beasley.. I expect Scherff to be there regardless.

OR Mariota reaches the Giants @ 9.

teams after the Giants that could use a Mariota.

Rams,Browns,Texans, Eagles maybe even the Cowboys.. Romo is 35 and they have no developmental QB behind them..

That would allow the Giants to trade down.. get extra picks and still have quality players to choose from..

..is somehow linked to the Giants picking #9 is one of the stranger ideas I've heard recently...and it's false. The widely held belief that he is the best OL in this draft didn't pop up out of thin air. Are there questions concerning his game and the position he'll play? Certainly. Is he a top 5 blue chip prospect? No. That's why he may be available when we pick. Not the other way around.

I do like Scherff for the Giants. Still in desperate need of OL help, starters and depth, and he seems capable of stepping in at a few positions, he would give the team some options. There's always some unexpected moves in the top 10 though, and should someone like Cooper fall because there's a run on pass rushers or so,etching similar than IMO you sprint to the podium and look for a guard in rd 2, even trade up for him if you have to. Cooper and a starting G are worth a 3rd.

In comment 12208478 Torrag said:

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..is somehow linked to the Giants picking #9 is one of the stranger ideas I've heard recently...and it's false. The widely held belief that he is the best OL in this draft didn't pop up out of thin air. Are there questions concerning his game and the position he'll play? Certainly. Is he a top 5 blue chip prospect? No. That's why he may be available when we pick. Not the other way around.

Its not linked, just interesting that Scherff seems to be the player mocks assign to the Giants and he ends up at the #9 spot when all the mocks are averaged.
Well maybe it is not so surprising...

this scenario, it would look like Atlanta would be the beneficiary. They are in desperate needed of a pass rusher. Mocks have them sometimes taking an OL but, I don't see it. IIRC there OL issues were the result of injuries. Trading down could still give them the chance of Ray or Dupree.

As far as the team trading up, wouldn't you make the deal with Atlanta to insure no one jumps over you. If you want Mariota enough to trade, I'm sure the difference in value between 8 and 9 won't matter.

Only way the Giants get a shot is, if there is an edge rusher still available, that Atlanta will not pass up.

In comment 12208602 Watson said:

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this scenario, it would look like Atlanta would be the beneficiary. They are in desperate needed of a pass rusher. Mocks have them sometimes taking an OL but, I don't see it. IIRC there OL issues were the result of injuries. Trading down could still give them the chance of Ray or Dupree. As far as the team trading up, wouldn't you make the deal with Atlanta to insure no one jumps over you. If you want Mariota enough to trade, I'm sure the difference in value between 8 and 9 won't matter. Only way the Giants get a shot is, if there is an edge rusher still available, that Atlanta will not pass up.

Watson - every one in the first ten slots is a potential beneficiary of Mariotta - it depends on what a team - for instance like the Eagles - is willing to pay to move up and what the seller is asking for in accepting a trade down. The 8-9 slots are both unlikely to draft Mariotta and therefore might be willing to trade.

The Rams at 10 are a potential landing place for Mariotta - so I speculate statistically that there will be, at the very least, a conversation with the Giants, and statistically a very real possibility. Maybe it's the difference between giving up a 2nd round pick vs a 3rd and 5th round pick according to the value chart (I haven't looked up the values) - but in that event which deal would you take?

In comment 12208787 gidiefor said:

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In comment 12208602 Watson said: Quote: this scenario, it would look like Atlanta would be the beneficiary. They are in desperate needed of a pass rusher. Mocks have them sometimes taking an OL but, I don't see it. IIRC there OL issues were the result of injuries. Trading down could still give them the chance of Ray or Dupree. As far as the team trading up, wouldn't you make the deal with Atlanta to insure no one jumps over you. If you want Mariota enough to trade, I'm sure the difference in value between 8 and 9 won't matter. Only way the Giants get a shot is, if there is an edge rusher still available, that Atlanta will not pass up. Watson - every one in the first ten slots is a potential beneficiary of Mariotta - it depends on what a team - for instance like the Eagles - is willing to pay to move up and what the seller is asking for in accepting a trade down. The 8-9 slots are both unlikely to draft Mariotta and therefore might be willing to trade. The Rams at 10 are a potential landing place for Mariotta - so I speculate statistically that there will be, at the very least, a conversation with the Giants, and statistically a very real possibility. Maybe it's the difference between giving up a 2nd round pick vs a 3rd and 5th round pick according to the value chart (I haven't looked up the values) - but in that event which deal would you take?

G- wouldn't it depend on who is moving up for Mariota? The Rams moving up 1 spot to get him and keep the Eagles from getting him may land only a 4th, where the Eagles moving up ma require a 2nd and 3rd because the Eagles draft spot is so far down the list in each round.

In comment 12208788 section125 said:
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G- wouldn't it depend on who is moving up for Mariota? The Rams moving up 1 spot to get him and keep the Eagles from getting him may land only a 4th, where the Eagles moving up ma require a 2nd and 3rd because the Eagles draft spot is so far down the list in each round. [/quote]

Good point Section -- all I'm suggesting is that there is a very real possibility in the above statistical analysis for the Giants to have an opportunity for a trade down.

In comment 12208791 gidiefor said:

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In comment 12208788 section125 said: Quote: G- wouldn't it depend on who is moving up for Mariota? The Rams moving up 1 spot to get him and keep the Eagles from getting him may land only a 4th, where the Eagles moving up ma require a 2nd and 3rd because the Eagles draft spot is so far down the list in each round.

Good point Section -- all I'm suggesting is that there is a very real possibility in the above statistical analysis for the Giants to have an opportunity for a trade down. [/quote]

I agree. I don't like trading down, but if the guy(s) they want is(are) likely to be still on the board at the new draft slot, hey I'd like to get and extra 3rd.

These so called (experts) try to marry a player to a certain team based on need alone. The chances of that happening is virtually slim to none.
Outside of Winston to the Bucs They don't have a clue. Even with Winston the Likely choice at 1 it's not a forgone conclusion like some years when the QB is regarded the best player in the draft.
I would say that while in the top 5 they may have 2 or 3 correct but after that it's safe to say whoever is Mock'd to you team is likely not the pick. The percentage of correct picks on these things have to be extremely low. wich is a good thing especially this year.
IMO scherff would be the wrong selection to make at 9 based on the talent of OL you can get at 40 if the Giants wanted to go in that direction. The only difference between the top OL and the OL that will be available at 40 is versatility to play both T and G. the talent drop off is very little IMO.
while Scherff may be the considerd the best OL prospect in the draft,a guy like tre Jackson,AJ cann,or Laken Tomlinson are certainly capable of being a probowler and a 10 year starter. Those are just 3 guys but there are a few others as well. There are a lot of good football players to be had after the 1st round. Contrary to popular belief around here,there is more than 1 round to the draft. :)

In comment 12208814 chillinman1183 said:

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There are a lot of good football players to be had after the 1st round. Contrary to popular belief around here,there is more than 1 round to the draft. :)

You're not wrong that most mock drafts place a player with a perceived need on each team and the earlier the draft position the more likely the two coincide. What mock drafts cannot do is get inside 32 GMs minds to see where they place BPA. Even the Giants place players in tiers and there might by 5 players in that tier. So in effect they have 5 BPAs and then can choose which one will have the greatest effect/benefit.

And contrary to your view, very few believe it is a one round draft. Some tend to focus on round one too much, but that is where the gold is.

In comment 12208814 chillinman1183 said:

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These so called (experts) try to marry a player to a certain team based on need alone. The chances of that happening is virtually slim to none. Outside of Winston to the Bucs They don't have a clue. Even with Winston the Likely choice at 1 it's not a forgone conclusion like some years when the QB is regarded the best player in the draft. I would say that while in the top 5 they may have 2 or 3 correct but after that it's safe to say whoever is Mock'd to you team is likely not the pick. The percentage of correct picks on these things have to be extremely low. wich is a good thing especially this year. IMO scherff would be the wrong selection to make at 9 based on the talent of OL you can get at 40 if the Giants wanted to go in that direction. The only difference between the top OL and the OL that will be available at 40 is versatility to play both T and G. the talent drop off is very little IMO. while Scherff may be the considerd the best OL prospect in the draft,a guy like tre Jackson,AJ cann,or Laken Tomlinson are certainly capable of being a probowler and a 10 year starter. Those are just 3 guys but there are a few others as well. There are a lot of good football players to be had after the 1st round. Contrary to popular belief around here,there is more than 1 round to the draft. :)

chillin... you are missing the point of this analysis - the Giants have a top 10 pick this year and by draft day the pundits do have a pretty good idea of who the top 10 picks are - if not necessarily in order - in composition. As the draft unfolds - you are right - the pundits are on average under 50% in their selections. So I did not ry to forecast anything more than a statistical basis for creating a consensus for the top 10 picks. The list above is a composition of 22 well-established Mocks and does not purport - necessarily - an exact order. It is an attempt to establish a relative weight to the top ten pick targets. There are statistical ties noted as well. Anyway - notwithstanding your comments - I found it both interesting and sobering - and I do think there is a lot of interesting meat to pick through using that list.

1. Winston
2. Mariota
3. Williams
4. White
5. Fowler
6. Cooper
7. Beasley
8. Ray

From there it feels like: Shelton, Bud Dupree or an offensive line prospect. I don't think DeVante Parker will be in play even though I like his skill set, gut feeling is he is below that tier at 9. Final answer, Bud Dupree.

In comment 12208856 gidiefor said:

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In comment 12208814 chillinman1183 said: Quote:As the draft unfolds - you are right - the pundits are on average under 50% in their selections.

If anyone came within shouting distance of 50%, it would be considered a miracle. Of course, percentages in the mid-20s are "less than 50%."

Mock Draft Accuracy - ( New Window )

Agree, there is a potential for a trade at any spot, however some are more likely than others. There could be no trades - Jets pick him or Rams select him at 10; both are quite possible. There could be an earlier trade; Rams with the Raiders or Washington to move ahead of the Jets.

However, in using your consensus mock (thank you for taking the time) as a hypothetical situation,I was only pointing out that both NYG & Atlanta could equally be good trading partners. Yes, the Giants would be cheaper but Atlanta would insure no one jumps over you because when your in love .....

Do agree Mariota being available at 9 probably gives the Giants the best chance of a tradedown. But, who could it be? Unless there is alot of interest it won't be the Rams. As to Chip, don't see him doing a trade unless he can package one of his Quarterbacks (in the Bradford for Foles he has already given up a this year's 4th & next year's 2nd).

So for the Giants to tradedown, who else could be in love?

good methodology. Good reference for assessing picks, much better than taking the sometimes too opinion loaded individual mocks.

and we wind up with BOTH their #1's.

Not sure if ti is possible but just saying.