@AnthonyDiComo 2m2 minutes ago
Can confirm @Joelsherman1 report that #Mets are talking contract extension with Lucas Duda. He's under team control for three more years.
Even if the Mets take the leap that there's no regression or injury risk, agreeing to not only guarantee his next 3 years and but also tack on 2 additional years at his open market value per season, that would be like 75M. The Mets hold all the leverage here and the downside for Duda is likely not worth risking when the Mets offer him less than his best case scenario over the next 5 years (which will probably be somewhere between 50-60M).
Lucas Duda would have been non-tendered any other year of his career before 2014. To be clear, I actually like Duda a lot and liked him WAY more than Ike when this debate was raging but the whole point of these deals is to keep costs down. 100 million for Duda off of 1 season where again (VERY GOOD) but not amazing. He was the 64th most valuable position player in baseball. Obviously him having a rare tool (power) likely makes him more valuable than that BUT even strictly on offense he was still "only" the 6th best 1b in baseball in 2014. Duda either takes a nice raise and security or the Mets let this playout. No chance he's getting 100+ million today.
I do think that last year being a mostly full time player will translate into a better season without Ike Davis splitting time. This will be his first year of being the full time first baseman and I'm expecting better power numbers that last year with the RF fence moved in at Citi Field
I do think that last year being a mostly full time player will translate into a better season without Ike Davis splitting time. This will be his first year of being the full time first baseman and I'm expecting better power numbers that last year with the RF fence moved in at Citi Field
HH,
Not being snarky but you sort of "have to" care what they pay him if you care about the success of the Mets because until/unless the payroll goes up, every "penny" counts. There is nothing that stops the Mets from talking to Duda again at mid-season if he's having a monster half and they have "seen enough". But 70 million would still be about DOUBLE what he's due.
Torres has a strong lower half that helps him produce lively stuff. His low-90s fastball has outstanding movement, and his changeup is just as effective. . . .Scouts laud his competitiveness.
From the FG review of the moves last offseason between TB and SD:
Quote:
There is definitely something there with Torres though, who was fantastic last season for Tampa Bay — serviceable against right-handed hitters, and phenomenal against left-handed hitters. He only faced 88 of them, so the sample is pretty small, but the results were overwhelmingly encouraging nonetheless. Only 21 of them reached, and his resultant 1.24 FIP against lefties was bettered only by Koji Uehara and Trevor Rosenthal. Torres should fit into the back of San Diego’s bullpen with Huston Street and Joaquin Benoit, and if Bud Black uses him the way Joe Maddon used him, he will be much more than a LOOGY. Last year, Torres was used as a LOOGY — only one batter faced — in two of his 39 appearances, and he worked at least one inning in 34 of the 39.
and made $25 million last year according to Forbes, I'm supposed to worry where the Mets come up with dollars to sign players? I don't think so
Do you feel the Mets operate in a way that suggests this valuation? Do you feel the Mets spend in a way that 25 million in profit is put back into the team?
that the Mets are not operating like the Dodgers or Red Sox. When there is a guy they target and need to sign and can't, then I'll worry about their ability or lack thereof.
I doubt the Mets on many/most decisions but I have to believe their thinking is FAR closer to this than some megadeal 100+ million. It would be truly bonkers in my opinion. Even if he had a Jose Abreu INSANE season... he's still controlled for the next 3 meaning they still would have the leverage. He had a very good season, I'm not hating on Duda at all but as Eric pointed out... LaRoche got 2 for 25 for an .817 OPS and proven track record. 1b just isn't a position you need to pay an insane amount for good production. If this gets done I'm expecting roughly 12-13 AAV
Right. If he gets 6/$70 I can at least see it from both sides - Duda gets his security, and if Duda's breakout is real and he's worth 15 wins over the next six years (which is not a conservative projection but is reachable if things break right), then the Mets come out ahead. But even at $6/70 there's a very real chance the Mets end up regretting that deal.
After thinking about it more, if I'm the Mets I would start lower than that and either try to set up some of those FA years as team options. 5/$45 with a $15M team option would be a win for the Mets and still puts Duda in a situation where he's set for life. There's just not a substantial likelihood that the Mets end up regretting not paying for Duda's age-33 and age-34 seasons.
that the Mets are not operating like the Dodgers or Red Sox. When there is a guy they target and need to sign and can't, then I'll worry about their ability or lack thereof.
But they are bottom 10 in payroll so the Sox and Dodgers aren't really fair comps. How about being in the 10-15 range like their market and "ready to compete" suggests?
RE: RE: RE: RE: RE: 100M for Duda would be insane Â
I doubt the Mets on many/most decisions but I have to believe their thinking is FAR closer to this than some megadeal 100+ million. It would be truly bonkers in my opinion. Even if he had a Jose Abreu INSANE season... he's still controlled for the next 3 meaning they still would have the leverage. He had a very good season, I'm not hating on Duda at all but as Eric pointed out... LaRoche got 2 for 25 for an .817 OPS and proven track record. 1b just isn't a position you need to pay an insane amount for good production. If this gets done I'm expecting roughly 12-13 AAV
Right. If he gets 6/$70 I can at least see it from both sides - Duda gets his security, and if Duda's breakout is real and he's worth 15 wins over the next six years (which is not a conservative projection but is reachable if things break right), then the Mets come out ahead. But even at $6/70 there's a very real chance the Mets end up regretting that deal.
After thinking about it more, if I'm the Mets I would start lower than that and either try to set up some of those FA years as team options. 5/$45 with a $15M team option would be a win for the Mets and still puts Duda in a situation where he's set for life. There's just not a substantial likelihood that the Mets end up regretting not paying for Duda's age-33 and age-34 seasons.
I actually expect the final numbers to be lower than the 6/70 we are talking about. I just don't see Sandy Alderson viewing locking up Duda as some great need unless the price is strongly in the Mets favor.
RE: RE: Yeah a team valued at 1.3 billion dollars Â
and made $25 million last year according to Forbes, I'm supposed to worry where the Mets come up with dollars to sign players? I don't think so
Do you feel the Mets operate in a way that suggests this valuation? Do you feel the Mets spend in a way that 25 million in profit is put back into the team?
The reported profit # is really meaningless. How much profit from operations went to related entities? For example, SNY reportedly pays the Mets 60-70 million per season. The Dodgers' deal averaged out to $350+ million per season, so even assuming that year 1 only pays 50% of the average, that's an extra 100 million in value over what the Mets make. That difference (or some number close to it) is excess profit that flows to Mets ownership thru their majority stake in SNY. And obviously SNY has a profit margin on top of that, which could be attributed to team profits.
Not factoring non-stadium debt, I cant see how the Mets (team + SNY stake + stadium) would be worth less than the Clippers, who sold for $200 million.
that the Mets are not operating like the Dodgers or Red Sox. When there is a guy they target and need to sign and can't, then I'll worry about their ability or lack thereof.
But they're not just operating on a different level than the Dodgers and Red Sox - they're operating on a different level than the Mariners and the Orioles and the White Sox and even the Royals, who are spending more than $115M in a tiny market with a terrible TV deal. And that's after the Royals let James Shields walk.
What constitutes "they target a guy they need and can't sign him?" The more likely scenario is that the FO sees the budget constraints they have to operate within and decides not to target high-level FA in the first place because they know they're out of the running before negotiations even start. There are a lot of ways that payroll constraints can hamper the Mets that won't manifest as "oh, we really want player X, he's a key target for us" followed by the Mets not getting that player. Kansas City Royals payroll (Spotrac) - ( New Window )
But they are bottom 10 in payroll so the Sox and Dodgers aren't really fair comps. How about being in the 10-15 range like their market and "ready to compete" suggests?
By market size Mets would be #3-5, which is consistent with past spending patterns for the Mets.
New York market is #1 at 23.5 million people in the metro area. If you assign just 1/3 of the market to the Mets (which may be a hair low), Mets market is 7.8 million. As a stand alone area that would be the #6 market, after NY-Yankees, LA, Chicago, DC, SF/O, and Boston, but bigger than Philly. Except of those markets, only Boston completely dominates its region. LA, Chicago, and SF each have two teams, and DC probably bleeds a ton of support to Baltimore (not sure how much). Link - ( New Window )
to spend on FAs, Johnny Peralta would've been our SS. Sources everywhere said that the Mets loved Peralta and were going to aggressively go after him and they immediately backed off once they saw what the asking price was.
He played great for the Cardinals last year, as they went to the playoffs yet again, and the Mets started Reuben Tejada.
RE: RE: Montero can force himself into the conversation Â
I actually expect the final numbers to be lower than the 6/70 we are talking about. I just don't see Sandy Alderson viewing locking up Duda as some great need unless the price is strongly in the Mets favor.
I like Metnut's suggestion of trying to lock up Lagares - that extension is likely to be a lot cheaper, especially because Lagares wasn't a big bonus IFA and is still pre-arb, and he's likely to age well.
Interesting comment from Rubin on twitter re: Duda Â
Says he's writing up a blog now with some info on the #'s being discussed for Duda, and this was a hint he sent out:
Quote:
Adam Rubin @AdamRubinESPN · 34m 34 minutes ago
Yeah, you'd be way off. RT @keahpa: I’m gonna say 5 years 72 million because I’m a person on Twitter
More
I'd be pretty shocked if that guys is "way off" on the low side.
The option would be a team option around 12M. Would be an excellent deal if true. Lucas Duda deal could be worth roughly 4 years, $31M - ( New Window )
That is a great sign if those numbers are accurate.
RE: And here it is from Rubin - 4 years 31M, with an option year Â
The option would be a team option around 12M. Would be an excellent deal if true. Lucas Duda deal could be worth roughly 4 years, $31M - ( New Window )
No brainer. I thought 5 for 50 would have gotten it done so 4 for 31 with a max of 4 for 43 is a no-brainer.
That is an excellent deal. Checks all the boxes - below market rate, team option, avoids a 6th year, and yet isn't unfair to Duda (if it was he always had the option to not sign it).
I wonder if there's a buyout on the team option - probably $1M or $2M, something like that.
So the average value of the equivalent four years for the other players' contracts is roughly $31 million, with an option year at nearly $13 million. Any Duda deal would supersede, or at least incorporate, the $4.2 million Duda already is owed this season.
The Mets would be unlikely to commit to any deal that did not extend at least four years, which would mean covering at least one year of free agency.
That is an excellent deal. Checks all the boxes - below market rate, team option, avoids a 6th year, and yet isn't unfair to Duda (if it was he always had the option to not sign it).
I wonder if there's a buyout on the team option - probably $1M or $2M, something like that.
Gotta believe there is some sort of buyout. What's in it for Duda to accept an option with ZERO insurance.
Adam Rubin
Exclusive: Talks between #Mets and Lucas Duda's reps on long-term contract end. Full details Link - ( New Window )
Finally, some good news (ducks)
Not sure why his agent wants to play hardball when all he has to do is work out a fair deal. You approach the team, then give them a nonsense dealine - lol. I don't think the Mets are overly afraid of going arbitration year to year with Duda. Even if they 'lose' each year.
DiComo reports
interesting addition
HH,
Not being snarky but you sort of "have to" care what they pay him if you care about the success of the Mets because until/unless the payroll goes up, every "penny" counts. There is nothing that stops the Mets from talking to Duda again at mid-season if he's having a monster half and they have "seen enough". But 70 million would still be about DOUBLE what he's due.
interesting addition
Really dig this move assuming the PTNL isn't significant.
Okay whatever floats your boat. Salary to each player matters.
Do you feel the Mets operate in a way that suggests this valuation? Do you feel the Mets spend in a way that 25 million in profit is put back into the team?
Given the bottom 10 MLB payroll multi-years running, I'm certainly worried where the Mets will come up with dollars to sign players.
Right. If he gets 6/$70 I can at least see it from both sides - Duda gets his security, and if Duda's breakout is real and he's worth 15 wins over the next six years (which is not a conservative projection but is reachable if things break right), then the Mets come out ahead. But even at $6/70 there's a very real chance the Mets end up regretting that deal.
After thinking about it more, if I'm the Mets I would start lower than that and either try to set up some of those FA years as team options. 5/$45 with a $15M team option would be a win for the Mets and still puts Duda in a situation where he's set for life. There's just not a substantial likelihood that the Mets end up regretting not paying for Duda's age-33 and age-34 seasons.
But they are bottom 10 in payroll so the Sox and Dodgers aren't really fair comps. How about being in the 10-15 range like their market and "ready to compete" suggests?
Quote:
I doubt the Mets on many/most decisions but I have to believe their thinking is FAR closer to this than some megadeal 100+ million. It would be truly bonkers in my opinion. Even if he had a Jose Abreu INSANE season... he's still controlled for the next 3 meaning they still would have the leverage. He had a very good season, I'm not hating on Duda at all but as Eric pointed out... LaRoche got 2 for 25 for an .817 OPS and proven track record. 1b just isn't a position you need to pay an insane amount for good production. If this gets done I'm expecting roughly 12-13 AAV
Right. If he gets 6/$70 I can at least see it from both sides - Duda gets his security, and if Duda's breakout is real and he's worth 15 wins over the next six years (which is not a conservative projection but is reachable if things break right), then the Mets come out ahead. But even at $6/70 there's a very real chance the Mets end up regretting that deal.
After thinking about it more, if I'm the Mets I would start lower than that and either try to set up some of those FA years as team options. 5/$45 with a $15M team option would be a win for the Mets and still puts Duda in a situation where he's set for life. There's just not a substantial likelihood that the Mets end up regretting not paying for Duda's age-33 and age-34 seasons.
I actually expect the final numbers to be lower than the 6/70 we are talking about. I just don't see Sandy Alderson viewing locking up Duda as some great need unless the price is strongly in the Mets favor.
Quote:
and made $25 million last year according to Forbes, I'm supposed to worry where the Mets come up with dollars to sign players? I don't think so
Do you feel the Mets operate in a way that suggests this valuation? Do you feel the Mets spend in a way that 25 million in profit is put back into the team?
The reported profit # is really meaningless. How much profit from operations went to related entities? For example, SNY reportedly pays the Mets 60-70 million per season. The Dodgers' deal averaged out to $350+ million per season, so even assuming that year 1 only pays 50% of the average, that's an extra 100 million in value over what the Mets make. That difference (or some number close to it) is excess profit that flows to Mets ownership thru their majority stake in SNY. And obviously SNY has a profit margin on top of that, which could be attributed to team profits.
Not factoring non-stadium debt, I cant see how the Mets (team + SNY stake + stadium) would be worth less than the Clippers, who sold for $200 million.
But they're not just operating on a different level than the Dodgers and Red Sox - they're operating on a different level than the Mariners and the Orioles and the White Sox and even the Royals, who are spending more than $115M in a tiny market with a terrible TV deal. And that's after the Royals let James Shields walk.
What constitutes "they target a guy they need and can't sign him?" The more likely scenario is that the FO sees the budget constraints they have to operate within and decides not to target high-level FA in the first place because they know they're out of the running before negotiations even start. There are a lot of ways that payroll constraints can hamper the Mets that won't manifest as "oh, we really want player X, he's a key target for us" followed by the Mets not getting that player.
Kansas City Royals payroll (Spotrac) - ( New Window )
But they are bottom 10 in payroll so the Sox and Dodgers aren't really fair comps. How about being in the 10-15 range like their market and "ready to compete" suggests?
By market size Mets would be #3-5, which is consistent with past spending patterns for the Mets.
New York market is #1 at 23.5 million people in the metro area. If you assign just 1/3 of the market to the Mets (which may be a hair low), Mets market is 7.8 million. As a stand alone area that would be the #6 market, after NY-Yankees, LA, Chicago, DC, SF/O, and Boston, but bigger than Philly. Except of those markets, only Boston completely dominates its region. LA, Chicago, and SF each have two teams, and DC probably bleeds a ton of support to Baltimore (not sure how much).
Link - ( New Window )
He played great for the Cardinals last year, as they went to the playoffs yet again, and the Mets started Reuben Tejada.
Quote:
with an outstanding outing today. If he is just OK, he goes to the bullpen
I'm fairly certain he can throw a no hitter today and still open in the pen.
1/3 there lol
I like Metnut's suggestion of trying to lock up Lagares - that extension is likely to be a lot cheaper, especially because Lagares wasn't a big bonus IFA and is still pre-arb, and he's likely to age well.
Yeah, you'd be way off. RT @keahpa: I’m gonna say 5 years 72 million because I’m a person on Twitter
More
I'd be pretty shocked if that guys is "way off" on the low side.
Link - ( New Window )
Lucas Duda deal could be worth roughly 4 years, $31M - ( New Window )
That is a great sign if those numbers are accurate.
No brainer. I thought 5 for 50 would have gotten it done so 4 for 31 with a max of 4 for 43 is a no-brainer.
As many of us said, 100 million was never ever realistic.
I wonder if there's a buyout on the team option - probably $1M or $2M, something like that.
The Mets would be unlikely to commit to any deal that did not extend at least four years, which would mean covering at least one year of free agency.
I wonder if there's a buyout on the team option - probably $1M or $2M, something like that.
Gotta believe there is some sort of buyout. What's in it for Duda to accept an option with ZERO insurance.
Congrats to Duda for securing himself a fortune most of us could only dream about and congrats to the Mets for locking down a player we all like.
"There will be resolution by Monday, one way or the other," Alderson said.
Link - ( New Window )
Exclusive: Talks between #Mets and Lucas Duda's reps on long-term contract end. Full details
Link - ( New Window )
Exclusive: Talks between #Mets and Lucas Duda's reps on long-term contract end. Full details Link - ( New Window )
Finally, some good news (ducks)
Not sure why his agent wants to play hardball when all he has to do is work out a fair deal. You approach the team, then give them a nonsense dealine - lol. I don't think the Mets are overly afraid of going arbitration year to year with Duda. Even if they 'lose' each year.