I'll apologize in advance for the lengthiness of this post.
I'll be the first to acknowledge this skid is not fun to endure, but my advice is to just breathe. Every team, no matter how good, endures them. We don't get to pick the times they occur. But there is plenty of evidence going back the past 12 years or so where the eventual Cup winners had to deal with these same rough patches, and quite a few at the end of the season. Bright side: even with a loss today, the Isles are still in the playoffs, and actually are very much alive for home ice.
Food for thought. While not "the" answer, a contributing factor has been the Isles season-long poor PDO, which has only worsened during this slide. A PDO of 100 is the norm. PDO is a stat that generally helps to understand the role luck plays in a game, so having a low PDO over a cold streak would generally indicate that a team is getting unlucky. If the Islanders’ 95 PDO (the number during this stretch of bad games) was the number that represented their entire regular season, they would have the worst PDO in the league
by far. But here's some silver lining. The Islanders still have a 99.4 percent chance at the playoffs and this slump has only had a .4 percent negative impact on those chances (previously 99.8%).
Look, as a fan, it infuriates me to be on the short end of these games. But I know - and you do, too - that this team has been one of the league's best teams (and in many important categories, an elite team) this whole year. No one thought this was a bad team when we were rolling from the initial drop through January. It's not a bad team now. They just need a game where they get their bounces and have an avalanche of goals. It'll happen, but they need to continue to work hard to create their own luck.
I think if I viewed the recent run solely as a fan, I may be apopleptic. But as someone that's played sports my whole life, and at the D1 level as well and who is also a coach, you have to realize that the same actions that got you here are the ones that are going to carry you through to the next level. Drastic changes and alterations to style in a slump only deepen the spiral. While it sucks for us to have to watch it unfold, bottom line is that the boys
will pull themselves out of it. They're too good not to. Just have faith, since they do as they believe in themselves. Stay the course. I know, easier said than done. What's harder is that we see how good they have been, and add to it the drama and sentiment that this is the last season at NVMC, and it's tough to keep emotions in check.
Onto the game. Halak to get the start. No news on lines or d-pairs, but the health of certain guys will dictate that (ex: Grabs likely would have been in yesterday but was ill; perhaps that changes today).
JT knows he's been kept off the scoresheet and has been guilty of some lapses...but he knows that changing that starts with him:
"It starts with me. A lot of guys look to me for the way we need to play. I think you have that responsibility as captain. So I accept that challenge and what comes with that.'' |
Fransie has the right outlook:
“We have to keep playing hard, keep playing for each other. I know we’re going to come out of this. This is tough now, but this is going to make it so much more fun when we get out of it and hopefully make a really good run in the playoffs. We have to embrace the pain right now cause I know we’re going to come out of it and it’s going to feel even better once we start winning again.” |
Young 'uns notes:
- C.J. Motte, fresh out of Ferris State, won his debut in goal for BPT by defeating Binghamton, 4-1
- Some coverage of BU D-man Doyle Somerby, who has made his way to the Frozen Four:
Isles fans note: 2012 5th-rd pick Doyle Somerby appears to have improved by leaps and bounds, judging by play in NCAA tourney. Somerby started play that led to OT goal Friday and leveled opposing forward in neutral zone today by stepping up. |
And for those of you like me that didn't have cable growing up and listened to tons of radio broadcasts, Barry Landers, the radio voice of the Isles 1981-97, is guest announcer for one final time on today's radio broadcast.
Let's Go Islanders!
It's a test of ultimate will
The heartbreak climb uphill
Got to pick up the pace
If you want to stay in the race
JT with 3 assists tonight.
Probably need 7 out of a possible 10 points, with 2 of those against Pitt to get home ice.
LGI
Know what else was nice (besides 5 goals)? Balanced scoring. Goals from all 4 lines tonight. I'd forgotten what that felt like.
MDC-JT-Strome
Lee-Nelson-Okposo
Kulemin - Tavares - Strome, in my opinion, puts our two best forwards on the ice at once, while Kulemin provides a defensive presence that our top line has proven to lack all season. Tavares and Strome at times looked magical together today.
Bailey - Neilsen - Okposo... two years ago this trio was flying on all cylinders together.
Kennedy - Nelson - Lee. 2/3s of the kid line ain't bad...Kennedy will have to earn his keep if he wants to remain on the roster.
Martin - Cizikas - Clutterbuck - If it ain't broke.. you know.
I think this is how it should go down for the rest of the year (if we're lucky enough to keep everyone healthy).
Leddy and Boychuck is doubtful to change.
Hamonic continues to impress me every night.
Hickey... i love the man, but he should be on our 6th pair.
Brian Strait is the bane of my existence.
•Isles have 95 points, 38 regulation/overtime wins (ROW)
•Boston has 89 points, 35 ROWs and 6 games to play. They can finish with a maximum of 101 points.
•Ottawa has 86 points, 32 ROWs and 7 games to play. They can finish with a maximum of 100 points.
•Florida has 85 points, 27 ROWs and 6 games to play. They can finish with a maximum of 97 points.
Isles magic numbers are:
•7 vs. Boston
•6 vs. Ottawa
•2 vs. Florida (because Isles will win ROW tie-breaker)
So, any Islander win or Florida regulation loss will mean the Isles will finish ahead of the Cats.
Florida is at Boston, and Ottawa is at Detroit on Tuesday.
Boston is in Detroit, Ottawa hosts Tampa Bay and Florida hosts Carolina on Thursday.
The Isles, who are idle until the play Thursday in Columbus, can clinch a playoff spot on Thursday IF:
•The Isles win
•AND Ottawa gets no more than 1 point in their games Tuesday/Thursday (This would assure Isles win tie-breaker)
OR
•The Isles lose in OT/SO
•AND Ottawa loses twice in regulation (This would assure Isles win tie-breaker)
•AND Florida does not beat both Boston and Carolina
If Ottawa wins either of their next two games, the Isles can not clinch until at least Saturday. The Isles can not clinch a spot over Boston until at least Saturday.
Some other numbers -- the Isles' magic number to finish ahead of Washington is 10 points. The Isles' magic number to finish ahead of Pittsburgh is 13 points.
The Isles once again, thanks to San Jose forcing a shootout, have home-ice in their control -- here's how -- if the Isles win their last 5- all in regulation, they will finish with 105 points and 43 ROW. Since one of those 5 is against Pittsburgh, the best the Penguins could do is 105 points and 43 ROW but the Isles have already won season series with Pittsburgh, and that is the next tie-breaker.
And the funny thing is, it shows you that game results sometimes contradict effort. I think you could successfully argue that we played better overall games in the recent losses than we did yesterday. Difference is, we didn't get the bounces and/or quality chances were thwarted in the losses. Yesterday was the payoff for having endured the tough luck through those games.
And the funny thing is, it shows you that game results sometimes contradict effort. I think you could successfully argue that we played better overall games in the recent losses than we did yesterday. Difference is, we didn't get the bounces and/or quality chances were thwarted in the losses. Yesterday was the payoff for having endured the tough luck through those games.
No to mention the goalies that were hot. Mrazek was the furthest thing from hot yesterday. I didn't get to watch the whole thing but from what I did see I saw better energy out there. Would you say that was the case? I wasn't able to see the 3rd. Were they gassed again?
Bailey - Neilsen - Okposo
Lee - Nelson - Kennedy
Martin - Cizikas - Clutterbuck
Leddy - Boychuck
Hamonic - Viznovsky
de Haan - Hickey
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
As for the 3rd, while they did play sound defense (actually, very good defense from the midpoint of the second period on), and the players said they were happy with their effort, I still cringed a bit. This 1-1-3 configuration still worries me because it's basically a shell defense. I think they still need to be opportunistic with offensive chances, but they stuck to trying to clog passing lanes - which they did fairly well - which in turn allows space in the corners and at the points(which top competition in the playoffs will exploit). So, there were still quality shots from Detroit but Halak was up to the task. I am wary watching us try to chip and dink out of our end, and seeing too much hesitancy from our guys in being definitive with the puck ("Do you have this one? Should I take it?"). Even if you don't want to ice it, the backhand or forehand lob into the center ice area never hurts anyone. It's a work in progress, and the next few games should allow them the chance to refine it.
Tuesday - carolina @ wash
Wednesday - philly @ pitt
Thursday - NYI @ columbus, wash @ montreal
Saturday - Buff @ NYI, pitt @ columbus, wash @ ottawa
Sunday - wash @ detroit, pitt @ philly
His love affair with strait is beyond creepy at this point.
His love affair with strait is beyond creepy at this point.
I sat right behind the Isles goal for the 1st and 3rd period.. it was a minor miracle that the top line didn't score against Strait.. he was AWFUL
After all, we've been eating shit sandwiches for 30+ years....while the dinner plate now resembles high-end fine dining, every now and then you have to accept that there'll be a stray hair on your chateaubriand. Hopefully next year, we can be germ-free ;-)
Capuano’s teaching lessons are jeopardizing Isles’ playoff odds (March 21) - ( New Window )
Percentage of minutes played by young players: 45 per cent
Islanders will only offer playoff tickets to season ticket holders, not the general public
Islanders will only offer playoff tickets to season ticket holders, not the general public
How is that possible? All seats aren't season ticketed seats.
Thanks Jay. I definitely don't doubt you, I just don't understand logistically how that would even work.