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NFT: Islanders - Red Wings 5pm Game Thread

pganut : 3/29/2015 1:02 pm
I'll apologize in advance for the lengthiness of this post.

I'll be the first to acknowledge this skid is not fun to endure, but my advice is to just breathe. Every team, no matter how good, endures them. We don't get to pick the times they occur. But there is plenty of evidence going back the past 12 years or so where the eventual Cup winners had to deal with these same rough patches, and quite a few at the end of the season. Bright side: even with a loss today, the Isles are still in the playoffs, and actually are very much alive for home ice.

Food for thought. While not "the" answer, a contributing factor has been the Isles season-long poor PDO, which has only worsened during this slide. A PDO of 100 is the norm. PDO is a stat that generally helps to understand the role luck plays in a game, so having a low PDO over a cold streak would generally indicate that a team is getting unlucky. If the Islanders’ 95 PDO (the number during this stretch of bad games) was the number that represented their entire regular season, they would have the worst PDO in the league by far. But here's some silver lining. The Islanders still have a 99.4 percent chance at the playoffs and this slump has only had a .4 percent negative impact on those chances (previously 99.8%).

Look, as a fan, it infuriates me to be on the short end of these games. But I know - and you do, too - that this team has been one of the league's best teams (and in many important categories, an elite team) this whole year. No one thought this was a bad team when we were rolling from the initial drop through January. It's not a bad team now. They just need a game where they get their bounces and have an avalanche of goals. It'll happen, but they need to continue to work hard to create their own luck.

I think if I viewed the recent run solely as a fan, I may be apopleptic. But as someone that's played sports my whole life, and at the D1 level as well and who is also a coach, you have to realize that the same actions that got you here are the ones that are going to carry you through to the next level. Drastic changes and alterations to style in a slump only deepen the spiral. While it sucks for us to have to watch it unfold, bottom line is that the boys will pull themselves out of it. They're too good not to. Just have faith, since they do as they believe in themselves. Stay the course. I know, easier said than done. What's harder is that we see how good they have been, and add to it the drama and sentiment that this is the last season at NVMC, and it's tough to keep emotions in check.

Onto the game. Halak to get the start. No news on lines or d-pairs, but the health of certain guys will dictate that (ex: Grabs likely would have been in yesterday but was ill; perhaps that changes today).

JT knows he's been kept off the scoresheet and has been guilty of some lapses...but he knows that changing that starts with him:
Quote:
"It starts with me. A lot of guys look to me for the way we need to play. I think you have that responsibility as captain. So I accept that challenge and what comes with that.''
Fransie has the right outlook:
Quote:
“We have to keep playing hard, keep playing for each other. I know we’re going to come out of this. This is tough now, but this is going to make it so much more fun when we get out of it and hopefully make a really good run in the playoffs. We have to embrace the pain right now cause I know we’re going to come out of it and it’s going to feel even better once we start winning again.”

Young 'uns notes:
- C.J. Motte, fresh out of Ferris State, won his debut in goal for BPT by defeating Binghamton, 4-1
- Some coverage of BU D-man Doyle Somerby, who has made his way to the Frozen Four:
Quote:
Isles fans note: 2012 5th-rd pick Doyle Somerby appears to have improved by leaps and bounds, judging by play in NCAA tourney. Somerby started play that led to OT goal Friday and leveled opposing forward in neutral zone today by stepping up.

And for those of you like me that didn't have cable growing up and listened to tons of radio broadcasts, Barry Landers, the radio voice of the Isles 1981-97, is guest announcer for one final time on today's radio broadcast.

Let's Go Islanders!

It's a test of ultimate will
The heartbreak climb uphill
Got to pick up the pace
If you want to stay in the race


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Here comes Jimmy Howard  
Mike in NY : 3/29/2015 6:07 pm : link
.
Wooooo!  
pganut : 3/29/2015 6:07 pm : link
Mrazek being pulled.

JT with 3 assists tonight.
What a game!  
The 12th Man : 3/29/2015 6:11 pm : link
This is the best I have felt about them in a long time.
Woooooo!  
pganut : 3/29/2015 6:15 pm : link
.
Awesome!!!!  
The 12th Man : 3/29/2015 6:16 pm : link
A Shorty!!! 3 pp goals and a shorty.
No  
Fish : 3/29/2015 6:17 pm : link
Complaints here!
Seeing these  
Metnut : 3/29/2015 6:26 pm : link
pucks go into the net has to take a lot of pressure off of the team. Obviously need to keep at em and close this out, but just glad to finally see us lighting up the net again.
listening on the radio  
timintey : 3/29/2015 6:30 pm : link
Barry is struggling big time. King is constantly correcting him. "The Trottier line"??? He called Clutterbuck's breakaway as Boychuk. I'm cringing here. Feel bad for him.
took a while  
theold5j : 3/29/2015 6:57 pm : link
but this is the game we needed. Goals early. PP goals. Good PK. Need to hang on and go from here. Let's go sharks.
need to get another  
timintey : 3/29/2015 7:20 pm : link
not overly comfortable here...
HUUUUUUGE W!!!  
timintey : 3/29/2015 7:35 pm : link
.
Yeah, baby!  
pganut : 3/29/2015 7:38 pm : link
The weight has been lifted. Great comeback after an early knockdown. Proud of these guys. Red Wings aren't a bunch of nancies. Keep it going. Fuck yeah...nice way to cap off the weekend.
Nice to see a win again  
KWhite2250 : 3/29/2015 7:42 pm : link
Only saw okposo goal and tying goal. Maybe i shouldnt watch? We'll try that next game
Big win  
Fish : 3/29/2015 7:42 pm : link
Feels good.
This a huge win  
The 12th Man : 3/29/2015 7:53 pm : link
Hope this team now gets back on track.
Huge win  
Danny Kanell : 3/29/2015 8:16 pm : link
Still have time to get hot going into the playoffs.

Probably need 7 out of a possible 10 points, with 2 of those against Pitt to get home ice.

LGI
Isles magic number is 6 pts  
pganut : 3/29/2015 8:45 pm : link
Any combo of points earned with Isles wins or with points lost by those trailing us gets it done.

Know what else was nice (besides 5 goals)? Balanced scoring. Goals from all 4 lines tonight. I'd forgotten what that felt like.
Mea culpa  
pganut : 3/29/2015 8:55 pm : link
Magic number is 5 points after Florida beat Ottawa.
look at the goals today  
theold5j : 3/29/2015 9:13 pm : link
We finally got the puck to bounce our way. The okposo goal. Right off his foot. Strome goal. He steals one at the line. Gets a rebound that bounces right back to him and burys it. Sometimes it just takes the bounces going your way to get things going.
Strome  
Fish : 3/29/2015 9:38 pm : link
Did something on that goal that bailey can't. Create a scoring opportunity. Bailey has no business being on L1.
If Nelson and Lee can progress this offseason  
Mike in NY : 3/29/2015 9:49 pm : link
Our top 6 could be homegrown:

MDC-JT-Strome
Lee-Nelson-Okposo
Is MDC really on L1  
theold5j : 3/30/2015 12:01 am : link
Next season. Is he a guarantee to make the team?
Unless he has a monster camp  
pganut : 3/30/2015 12:09 am : link
I can't see it happening. Which sucks for him because he's ineligible for the AHL and would need to return to Oshawa where there's not much left to prove. I think he still needs to fill out a slight bit more and also work on his defensive play. If he trains hard, he may have a small shot to make it.
I LOVE the line combinations today  
Mike in Long Beach : 3/30/2015 12:26 am : link
and I'm praying we stick with them.

Kulemin - Tavares - Strome, in my opinion, puts our two best forwards on the ice at once, while Kulemin provides a defensive presence that our top line has proven to lack all season. Tavares and Strome at times looked magical together today.

Bailey - Neilsen - Okposo... two years ago this trio was flying on all cylinders together.

Kennedy - Nelson - Lee. 2/3s of the kid line ain't bad...Kennedy will have to earn his keep if he wants to remain on the roster.

Martin - Cizikas - Clutterbuck - If it ain't broke.. you know.

I think this is how it should go down for the rest of the year (if we're lucky enough to keep everyone healthy).
Defensively  
Mike in Long Beach : 3/30/2015 12:30 am : link
Viznovsky was fantastic on the power play for us and I think was the main reason we were so successful on it today. That being said, we have to use him very carefully. We really need to minimize his ice time when larger/stronger forwards who possess a significant scoring threat are on the ice.

Leddy and Boychuck is doubtful to change.

Hamonic continues to impress me every night.

Hickey... i love the man, but he should be on our 6th pair.

Brian Strait is the bane of my existence.
What took Flinstone  
Lithium : 3/30/2015 8:52 am : link
so long to put JT with Strome? The guy truly just doesn't get it.
Ha...I started working these scenarios out  
pganut : 3/30/2015 9:10 am : link
But then saw this from Eric Hornick, the Isles statistician, who has put together the playoff/magic number scenario:

Quote:
In order to clinch a playoff spot, the Isles need to finish ahead of at least two of these three teams: Boston, Ottawa and Florida (they would also clinch a spot if they finish ahead of Washington).

•Isles have 95 points, 38 regulation/overtime wins (ROW)
•Boston has 89 points, 35 ROWs and 6 games to play. They can finish with a maximum of 101 points.
•Ottawa has 86 points, 32 ROWs and 7 games to play. They can finish with a maximum of 100 points.
•Florida has 85 points, 27 ROWs and 6 games to play. They can finish with a maximum of 97 points.

Isles magic numbers are:

•7 vs. Boston
•6 vs. Ottawa
•2 vs. Florida (because Isles will win ROW tie-breaker)

So, any Islander win or Florida regulation loss will mean the Isles will finish ahead of the Cats.


Florida is at Boston, and Ottawa is at Detroit on Tuesday.

Boston is in Detroit, Ottawa hosts Tampa Bay and Florida hosts Carolina on Thursday.

The Isles, who are idle until the play Thursday in Columbus, can clinch a playoff spot on Thursday IF:

•The Isles win
•AND Ottawa gets no more than 1 point in their games Tuesday/Thursday (This would assure Isles win tie-breaker)

OR

•The Isles lose in OT/SO
•AND Ottawa loses twice in regulation (This would assure Isles win tie-breaker)
•AND Florida does not beat both Boston and Carolina

If Ottawa wins either of their next two games, the Isles can not clinch until at least Saturday. The Isles can not clinch a spot over Boston until at least Saturday.


Some other numbers -- the Isles' magic number to finish ahead of Washington is 10 points. The Isles' magic number to finish ahead of Pittsburgh is 13 points.

The Isles once again, thanks to San Jose forcing a shootout, have home-ice in their control -- here's how -- if the Isles win their last 5- all in regulation, they will finish with 105 points and 43 ROW. Since one of those 5 is against Pittsburgh, the best the Penguins could do is 105 points and 43 ROW but the Isles have already won season series with Pittsburgh, and that is the next tie-breaker.
Isles magic number vs. Ottawa  
Mike in NY : 3/30/2015 9:33 am : link
It is 5 as long as they score 2 ROW in their remaining 5 games because then Islanders will have the tiebreaker
Mike  
pganut : 3/30/2015 10:02 am : link
Agreed, and that's why I created the amended post at 8:55 last night.

And the funny thing is, it shows you that game results sometimes contradict effort. I think you could successfully argue that we played better overall games in the recent losses than we did yesterday. Difference is, we didn't get the bounces and/or quality chances were thwarted in the losses. Yesterday was the payoff for having endured the tough luck through those games.
RE: Mike  
Dave M : 3/30/2015 10:37 am : link
In comment 12210083 pganut said:
Quote:
Agreed, and that's why I created the amended post at 8:55 last night.

And the funny thing is, it shows you that game results sometimes contradict effort. I think you could successfully argue that we played better overall games in the recent losses than we did yesterday. Difference is, we didn't get the bounces and/or quality chances were thwarted in the losses. Yesterday was the payoff for having endured the tough luck through those games.


No to mention the goalies that were hot. Mrazek was the furthest thing from hot yesterday. I didn't get to watch the whole thing but from what I did see I saw better energy out there. Would you say that was the case? I wasn't able to see the 3rd. Were they gassed again?
.  
Mike in Long Beach : 3/30/2015 10:59 am : link
Kulemin - Tavares - Strome
Bailey - Neilsen - Okposo
Lee - Nelson - Kennedy
Martin - Cizikas - Clutterbuck

Leddy - Boychuck
Hamonic - Viznovsky
de Haan - Hickey

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
I would say that the two quick DET goals  
pganut : 3/30/2015 11:00 am : link
Were a punch in the mouth. Listening to Cappy's postgamer, he said that while the two Wings goals were not ideal that early, he mentioned that "there are different types of two goal defecits", implying that he thought they were fluky. And as JT said, there were still 58 minutes to go. So, did that "energize" them? I guess so. The Isles definitely dictated play for the next 5 or so minutes after falling behind.

As for the 3rd, while they did play sound defense (actually, very good defense from the midpoint of the second period on), and the players said they were happy with their effort, I still cringed a bit. This 1-1-3 configuration still worries me because it's basically a shell defense. I think they still need to be opportunistic with offensive chances, but they stuck to trying to clog passing lanes - which they did fairly well - which in turn allows space in the corners and at the points(which top competition in the playoffs will exploit). So, there were still quality shots from Detroit but Halak was up to the task. I am wary watching us try to chip and dink out of our end, and seeing too much hesitancy from our guys in being definitive with the puck ("Do you have this one? Should I take it?"). Even if you don't want to ice it, the backhand or forehand lob into the center ice area never hurts anyone. It's a work in progress, and the next few games should allow them the chance to refine it.
upcoming schedule  
theold5j : 3/30/2015 11:03 am : link
its a must that the islanders win their 2 games.

Tuesday - carolina @ wash

Wednesday - philly @ pitt

Thursday - NYI @ columbus, wash @ montreal

Saturday - Buff @ NYI, pitt @ columbus, wash @ ottawa

Sunday - wash @ detroit, pitt @ philly
The last thing  
Metnut : 3/30/2015 11:05 am : link
I want to see us do with a lead late in the game is to sit back into a shell and just try to block opponents' shot attempts. We're better off trying to control possession and prevent the opposition from even taking shots that we need to block.
I know I'm beating a dead horse here  
Mike in Long Beach : 3/30/2015 11:52 am : link
But is anyone is fully prepared for the ultimate face palm on Thursday... meaning splitting up Tavares and Strome?
RE: I know I'm beating a dead horse here  
pganut : 3/30/2015 12:14 pm : link
In comment 12210266 Mike in Long Beach said:
Quote:
But is anyone is fully prepared for the ultimate face palm on Thursday... meaning splitting up Tavares and Strome?
Why'd you have to say that? You come out with stink like that. Poop. You poopmouth, with poop out of your mouth!

Ha I'm sorry. But I'm legitimately terrified of Capuano at this point.  
Mike in Long Beach : 3/30/2015 12:25 pm : link
.
Any coach who could say with a STRAIT face  
Dave M : 3/30/2015 1:10 pm : link
"We kept Getzlaf and Perry off the score sheet" after getting thoroughly beaten by the Ducks can't be trusted.

His love affair with strait is beyond creepy at this point.
RE: Any coach who could say with a STRAIT face  
feelflows : 3/30/2015 1:12 pm : link
In comment 12210410 Dave M said:
Quote:
"We kept Getzlaf and Perry off the score sheet" after getting thoroughly beaten by the Ducks can't be trusted.

His love affair with strait is beyond creepy at this point.


I sat right behind the Isles goal for the 1st and 3rd period.. it was a minor miracle that the top line didn't score against Strait.. he was AWFUL
Would be great  
Metnut : 3/30/2015 1:14 pm : link
to get some good news on Grabovski this week. I fear if we don't hear anything good on him by Thursday, he's out for the playoffs.
Has Staple or anyone else covering the Islanders  
Mike in Long Beach : 3/30/2015 1:24 pm : link
given Capuano shit in a press conference yet about Strait? I feel like the entire Islander fan community is all on the same page, but no one in the media has articulated the stance (not that Cappy would care what we think (nor should he)... none the less, I'd be interested to hear why he's doing what he's doing.
This Cyrgalis Daily News article  
pganut : 3/30/2015 2:10 pm : link
Is the only one that "calls out" Cappy on some of the lineup moves. Like you said, Cappy shouldn't care what the media, or we think anyway...the coaches will always have a better read on the lockerroom than we will. As much as I'm a stats/numbers guy and feel that their analysis should factor heavily into lineups and gameplan, and there's no denying the impact of them on games over some sample sized period, games aren't won/lost on paper. Bottom line...while the eye test screams guys like Strait should never see the ice, any coach - Cappy or not - will have his reasons for playing/sitting certain guys.

After all, we've been eating shit sandwiches for 30+ years....while the dinner plate now resembles high-end fine dining, every now and then you have to accept that there'll be a stray hair on your chateaubriand. Hopefully next year, we can be germ-free ;-)

Capuano’s teaching lessons are jeopardizing Isles’ playoff odds (March 21) - ( New Window )
Some more attention from the league on the Isles youth movement  
pganut : 3/30/2015 2:16 pm : link
Toronto Globe & Mail ranked the teams that are getting the most contributions from their youth (players 24 and under) based on a formula of points by those players and TOI. TB was number one at 56%, EDM #2 at 46% and the Isles third at 45%. Mirtle's comments:
Quote:
3. The Islanders. Long Island’s meteoric rise has been coming for a while, with their hole in goal in previous seasons obscuring how ready they were for a step forward. In addition to John Tavares, they now have Nick Leddy, Travis Hamonic and Calvin de Haan playing key minutes on the blueline and Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome and Anders Lee all in the 40-plus point range up front. This is a core that, if kept together as the Islanders move to Brooklyn, should be good for a long time to come.

Percentage of minutes played by young players: 45 per cent

Islanders defensemen are delivering  
pganut : 3/30/2015 7:28 pm : link
The Isles now have 3 D-men with 30+ points (Boychuk, Leddy, Hamonic) for the first time since 01-02 (Hamrlik, Aucoin, K. Jonsson).
Thats  
Fish : 3/30/2015 8:02 pm : link
good company.
Some asshat info  
JayBinQueens : 3/30/2015 9:39 pm : link
so take it for what it's worth:

Islanders will only offer playoff tickets to season ticket holders, not the general public
RE: Some asshat info  
Mike in Long Beach : 3/30/2015 9:43 pm : link
In comment 12211133 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
so take it for what it's worth:

Islanders will only offer playoff tickets to season ticket holders, not the general public


How is that possible? All seats aren't season ticketed seats.
I hope it's wrong and think it's really stupid if true  
JayBinQueens : 3/30/2015 9:45 pm : link
but that's what I was told.
RE: I hope it's wrong and think it's really stupid if true  
Mike in Long Beach : 3/30/2015 9:47 pm : link
In comment 12211141 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
but that's what I was told.


Thanks Jay. I definitely don't doubt you, I just don't understand logistically how that would even work.
if they do something like that  
MookGiants : 3/30/2015 9:54 pm : link
I would almost guarantee they make you buy a plan next year to get access. They'll allow season ticket holders in Brooklyn to get tickets, too. Something like that.
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