First...if you are one of those, "I hate pure conjecture" sort of posters, then this will probably irritate you and you might want to close this thread.
Next offseason, the Giants are going to have to make a decision between these two.
Why not keep both?
I supposed they could but I think Randle will cost $6 million/year and Cruz will count $10 million against the cap. That is a lot of money to spend on your 2nd and 3rd options.
Obviously there are major question marks about both but I think if you follow the trend of their production that Randle should be the one retained.
Why Randle?
He is only 23! I think he has maturity issues but again he is only 23.
He has steadily improved as a player. Going from 19 rec to 41 rec to 71 rec receptions.
No injury concerns.
The new offense suits him with no guess work.
It sounds silly but I think he knows his role.
Why not Cruz?
Get ready for blasphemy. Victor Cruz will count $9.9 against the cap next year.
He was on the decline before the injury. Obviously, we need to wait and see what he is this season but $10,000,000/year is borderline elite WR money.
Last year he was on pace for about 60/900/3 and that was before the injury and before ODB starting getting massive amounts of targets.
Cutting him next year will save $6.1 million against the cap.
Im sure he will be good in this offense but he thrived running those option routes that are no longer a central theme.
Why talk about this now?
Because I grow tired of mock drafts.
I have to think that the front office is considering this as we approach the draft.
I love Cooper and White. I will be THRILLED if we take one of them but they are most effective on the outside and that probably means moving on from Randle and keeping Cruz in the slot. $10,000,000 is a lot to pay your on the decline, 3rd option, slot receiver playing on a 30 year old reconstructed knee whose competitive advantage is predicated on quick cuts and option routes (that are no longer the focus).
I would like to see:
1st: La'el Collins to really improve our running game and get Eli an effective play action again (where he is best).
2nd/3rd: Slot receiver like Dorsett or Agholor or even Lockett.
fire away.
If Cruz doesn't return to form Randle coming back would depend on the type of season he has and/or if they bring in a rookie WR who they feel comfortable moving up the ladder.
Most likely Randle is not a Giant beyond next year.
Randle has to prove the light is on for good following a strong finish. He'll be a free agent anyway as he's unlikely to sign an extension while attempting to 'play his value up' this year.
Stevie Johnson
Golden Tate
Danny Amendola
Emannuel Sanders
Riley Cooper
If he continues on the upward trend that he is on (plus inflation) I think $6 million is a good ballpark.
Also, I answered the "why talk about this now" question in my post.
That being said, Cruz will never be the Cruz of old simply because the Giants have OBJ. Cruz was Eli's prime target, those days are gone regardless of how good he is after the injury. He could be BETTER than he was a few years ago but it doesn't matter as much because he's not needed as much.
Randle? Was the end of 2014 the real RR? Or will he go back to disappearing in most games?
I know you didn't want this to be a post about the draft but I believe that the 1st round will tell us a lot about what the Giants think of Randle and Cruz in the long term. If they pick White or Cooper, it means Cruz or Randle aren't long in a Giants uniform.
I personally would love for Randle to keep improving and be signed for another 5 years and solidify the outside. Cruz is a cap casualty, I don't think he will be a $10 million a year player at this point in his career, hope he proves us all wrong, but odds are against him.
With that said the Giants should address the WR position in the draft in the first 3 rounds. Would love Devin Smith in the 2nd if available, or Cooper if there in the first.
Lets assume Cruz takes some time coming back but by late season he starts to show at least some of the wiggle and chops that he showed from 11-14. Let's assume Randle has another good but not great year. Lets assume that the Giants do NOT add a big time talent via the draft and the younger kids on the roster this moment don't shine. IF all that happens....you have yourself a pretty good debate. I'd let Randle walk. I don't hate him like I did at times last year as he showed some progress but if he doesn't make us drool in 2015 I would not bring him back on the 2nd, and typically expensive contract. He would be replaceable.
But so much can happen.
I do think they will draft a wr at some point in the draft because they can't count on cruz or the guys they brought in/back from FA.
If Cruz comes back all the way he'll be a fantastic weapon in this scheme. I think there's room for both him and Randle...indeed I think that we need them both down the line, unless we draft another top WR this year. So, depending upon the draft I'd be happy to sign him for $6M after this year, particularly given our expected cap situation.
I do wonder about Cruz's stats pre-injury. That was before Beckham. I'm thinking that w/o NIcks, Beckham, the defenses were focused on shutting donw Cruz and allowing Randle & Parker or whomever to be single covered.
Once you add Beckham to a healthy Cruz, we could see his stats come right back too 2011. if healthy.
I've seen too many recent Giant receivers get injured and ruined to hold out hope that Cruz will once again be an outstanding weapon. I hope I'm wrong. In any case, the decision on Cruz or Randle will be an easy one, IMO.
p.s.-- I wouldn't be surprised to see a rookie WR (i.e., Nelson Agholor, Rashad Greene, Tyler Lockett, Ty Montgomery) pass Randle on the Giants depth chart this year. Ideally the Giants are healthy enough and stacked enough at WR that Randle rarely sees the field.
Milton, did someone else post this with your account? With 71 and 938 last year, he's worth a LOT more than veteran minimum. A repeat would guarantee him a contract North of $6M per. That is certain.
If the Giants do not pick up a good WR and Cruz does not perform as hoped for, Randle will probably be re-signed, IMO. and for a lot more than VM.
So given those games Cruz was on pace for 67/998/3 while Randle was on pace for 73/604/6. The whole exercise is silly becase Randles numbers were much different than what he was on pace for after week 5. He finished 71/938/3 which is very similar to what Cruz was on pace for...
Cruz has shown more than Randle has ever shown. But your theory is absolutely correct if Cruz doesn't come back from the injury you part ways and perhaps Randle is an option.
Of course we could always go out and get a top prospect at WR in the draft or Randle's potential replacement in Rounds 2 - 4.
p.s.-- I wouldn't be surprised to see a rookie WR (i.e., Nelson Agholor, Rashad Greene, Tyler Lockett, Ty Montgomery) pass Randle on the Giants depth chart this year. Ideally the Giants are healthy enough and stacked enough at WR that Randle rarely sees the field.
A 23 year old WR that is flirting with a 70 catch 1000 yard season gets offered a vet min?
You are not dealing in reality.
Also, for those of you saying that it is too early to talk about this, I guarantee the front office is thinking/talking about it. If you think the fact that Cruz is a $10m cap# coming off a risky knee injury and Randle is an inconsistent young player in a contract year doesnt play a role in the draft then I would say you are short sighted.
However, if Cruz comes back to form, and Randle has a big show me year, then decisions have to be made.........
There is no way some later round WR will get the nod over Randle, unless he implodes....
If it doesn't light a fire under him, this year nothing will.....he is in a unique position....I know OBj will be getting a lot more attention from defenses, and this will allow him to get a little more open space....
It's a case of show me the money.....he has to realize, this is a make or break year for him, contract wise....I think he will have a big year.....if this offense can get that 5th lineman, and stay healthy, this offense can be scary...
NYG hoped he'd be an outside threat that would stretch and take the top off the defense. He's shown some signs of emerging, but OB does everything at an elite level.
NYG hoped he'd be an outside threat that would stretch and take the top off the defense. He's shown some signs of emerging, but OB does everything at an elite level.
I don't disagree with your assessment, but it's funny. When he's made plays, it's usually on passes caught over the middle inside the numbers.
Randle has showed signs.
You just let stuff work itself out with performance on the field and you consider drafting a guy.
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There is no way some later round WR will get the nod over Randle, unless he implodes....
He has been imploding for three seasons with the Giants, why should we expect year four to be any different? We heard stories of a bad work ethic as a rookie and we heard stories of a bad work ethic last year.
He has been imploding? If by imploding you mean improving, then yes, he has imploded each year.
He has his warts. You hear about maturity issues but he is 23 years old! He runs inconsistent routes. Inside break routes are fantastic. Outside breaking routes are rounded off. He needs to take another step forward this year but if he does, I think we should seriously think about signing him to a long term deal.
I guess a big part of my question is...How good of a year does Cruz have to produce to consider $10,000,000 a reasonable amount to pay our #2 receiver?
That's not necessarily a bad thing but I would think the Giants want to see a lot more before they hand over a second contract to this guy. We need to see some wow plays in 2015. Randle will have everything lined up for him in 2015. HE will see single coverage more often than not. He will be in the same offense for 2 straight years catching passes from a familiar QB and he will be entering his 4th NFL season. Contract year. It's now or never. We know Randle can play the question is what's his ceiling.
My money is on Randle having his best season yet in 2015 but the Giants let him walk and live to tell about it.
I think, at best, Cruz will need a full year without other significant injuries to return to pre-injury self. Don't be surprised if he's only ok this year, and don't think that necessarily means he won't be able to recapture what he was, either.
If nothing else, Randle will be a product of the system and Eli. If Randle had hit free agency this year, a team would have bitten, as he he's young, has size and has put up numbers (even if they are inflated). If Randle is not resigned next year, unless he falls off of a cliff, he'll be at camp with someone else.
On one hand, Randle moving on would be frustrating, because it's yet another draft pick we experienced growing pains over while developing him and getting nothing in return. On the other, how much of Randle's production will be down to Eli and the system? We have to trust that the FO will be able to tell the difference.
My main issue with Randle is the lack of separation he gets. Whether or not its down to speed, route-running or agility, he always seems blanketed to me, and every catch is contested. Even though he's got some height and reach, he's also not a large-framed physical guy who catches with his hands like Boldin or Megatron who are open, even if the DB is striding with them.
That's not necessarily a bad thing but I would think the Giants want to see a lot more before they hand over a second contract to this guy. We need to see some wow plays in 2015. Randle will have everything lined up for him in 2015. HE will see single coverage more often than not. He will be in the same offense for 2 straight years catching passes from a familiar QB and he will be entering his 4th NFL season. Contract year. It's now or never. We know Randle can play the question is what's his ceiling.
My money is on Randle having his best season yet in 2015 but the Giants let him walk and live to tell about it.
I'd say average starting receiver. Other than that, I agree with your prediction.
I think the comparisons to Toomer are apt. He even body-catches and looks kind of awkward like Toomer did. Same stuff about practice habits and untapped potential. Maybe he blows up like Toomer did.
Yeah, that's approaching no. 1 receiver money..If he finally proves he's the goods as a secondary or tertiary receiver, 5 years at $22 million, 7 guaranteed might be the eventual ballpark..
Imo
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Randle would have to put a significantly stronger full season than '14 in order to score $6M per.
Yeah, that's approaching no. 1 receiver money..If he finally proves he's the goods as a secondary or tertiary receiver, 5 years at $22 million, 7 guaranteed might be the eventual ballpark..
Imo
You are mistaken. Take a look at the link and tell me which of those $6,000,000 is approaching a #1 receiver. None of them.
Low tier #1 WR money is about $9 million/year and those contracts were signed 2-3 years ago. The cost has gone up since. Also consider the inflation that will happen for next year. If he continues to improve he will get $6 million/year.
WR Contracts - ( New Window )
That is how I see it.
For the record, I expect Cruz to play very well this year. But the $10m question is, how good does Cruz have to be to warrant $10m/year to be our #2/#3 at 30 years old? ($6m cap savings if cut).
I doubt they're in a great hurry to extend Randle right now. Part of his make-up is he's really laidback, he needs motivation to pick it up a notch or three. Let him play for the second contract.
I doubt they're in a great hurry to extend Randle right now. Part of his make-up is he's really laidback, he needs motivation to pick it up a notch or three. Let him play for the second contract.
They signed a returner/slot receiver this off season, re-signed Parker and both the GM and HC talked about the desire to move OBJ around including slot. This is not KG offense schemes. I don't believe at the time he was presented with his contract, the Giants only viewed Cruz as their slot receiver. If that is proven to be the sad reality based on his own skills and those of his WR teammates, then he is at risk of being cut due to cap economics regardless of his recovery.
I doubt they're in a great hurry to extend Randle right now. Part of his make-up is he's really laidback, he needs motivation to pick it up a notch or three. Let him play for the second contract.
Agreed...that was part of my point in saying that even though this decision will ultimately be made next year; I think it could possibly drive decisions in the upcoming draft this year.