NFT: NBA Awards Predictions

I feel like Whiteside would win it over Butler if he were a nicer guy/less of an idiot.

MVP:
Who I think should win- Harden
Who will win- Curry

Rookie of the Year:
Who I think should win- Mirotic
Who will win- Wiggins

Coach of the Year: Budenholzer

Most Improved Player: Draymond Green

6th Man of the Year: Lou Williams

Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green

*Kawhi would be my choice but he missed too much time

All NBA Predictions:
1st Team: Curry, Harden, James, Davis, M. Gasol
2nd Team: Paul, Westbrook, Aldridge, Griffin, Cousins
3rd Team: Thompson, Wall, Gasol, Butler, Jordan

Curry has a lot of talent around him, as we saw with fellow assassin Klay Thompson, and defensive stoppers in Draymond and Bogut. However, I still think Curry is the MVP for being the motor of a Warriors team that is having one of the best regular seasons of all-time. He makes everyone on his team better with his court vision, his instincts, and the spacing he creates due to his long range ability.

I'm also biased against Harden because I hate watching the same thing over and over-- he drives to the rim trying to draw a foul and either scores the layup or nails the free throws. It's effective as hell, but I hate watching it. It shouldn't factor into my MVP vote, but it's hard to completely ignore it.

Also, I think it's important to see how a player's contributions help put his team in a position to be successful in the playoffs. It's a regular season award, so it shouldn't be decided after seeing what someone did in the playoffs, but I think it's worth looking to see who made their team the most playoff-ready as well.

My knock on Harden is that is usage rate is insane. While that speaks to how much he may have apparently carried the Rockets, it also indicates that he has created an environment where his team relies on him to an unstable amount. In the playoffs, teams are going to exhaust him and over a series, they are going to contain him. And because he always has the ball in his hand, the rest of the Rockets are more likely to stall out.

I think part of the regular season-- and one of the reasons that makes coaches like Popovich and Izzo so great-- is that the know that the regular season is the get a team prepared for the postseason and that includes getting everyone who may contribute involved.

I also wonder where I should put Lebron in the race. He is the best player on the court. The Cavs were 2-9 without him this season. He adds the most positive value to any team he is on than any other player in the League. But I am not sure how much to factor in his games missed compared with someone like Curry who played more and could therefore contribute to more wins.

MVP- Curry
COY- Budenholz
GMOY- Danny Ferry
DPOY- Kawhi
ROY- Wiggins

1st Team: Curry, Harden, LeBron, Davis, Marc Gasol
2nd Team: Paul, Westbrook, Kawhi, Duncan, Boogie
3rd Team: can't decide.

I agree completely with about 90% of that post. But your comment on Harden's Usage rate is a major reach to say the least.

Maybe you're confusing Harden's USG with Westbrook's. In that case you'd be right. Westbrook has a preposterous USG rate that backs up his reputation as a major ballhog. Harden on the otherhand has about the USG rate you'd want him to have. The Rockets have had the worst PG rotation among every single playoff team this year. That includes both the East and West playoff teams. Harden has had to carry that offense on his back and act as the de-facto PG on top of leading the league in scoring (overall, Russ took the per game title).

38.4 USG rate for Westbrook
32.3 USG rate for LeBron
31.4 USG rate for Harden
29.0 USG rate for Curry

So yea, USG rate as a knock on Harden is simply a dumb statement. He's where he needs to be, right around where Curry is. He's no Westbrook.

MVP: Still... I'd give Curry the nod. Harden is the man but Curry being the head of the borderline historic GS snake is enough to give him the award.

DPOY: I love everything Draymond has done this year. One of the most valuable and unique assets in basketball is the 3nD Power Forward (one reason why Sheed is criminally underrated). The spacing and options that such a player creates has such an incredible impact on the team on both ends. Draymond is strong enough to guard ZBo and Griffin, yet quick enough to switch on PGs. He's been amazing. But as good as Draymond is, I think Bogut is still the MVP of the GS defense. Whereas in San Antonio, I believe Kawhi is a more important defender for them than Duncan. Kawhi is my DPOY. It's just amazing watching him blossom into such a terror.

MIP: Draymond vs. Klay vs. Butler. I guess it's really Butler vs. Draymond. Maybe Whiteside as dep mentioned. As great as Draymond has been, I think I'd once again go in a different direction here. I'd give the nod to Jimmy Butler. Unlike Draymond, Jimmy was THE MAN on a team and his offense grew leaps and bounds.

COY: Budenholzer. Pretty obvious choice. What Atlanta has done this year is remarkable.

ROY: Another pretty easy choice. Wiggins started slow but has been flashing some serious potential on a nightly basis lately. He just baptized Omer Asik last night. He's going to be a star. Mirotic is fun to watch and Jabari would've been in the convo if he were healthy. I'm also happy to see Nerlens make some waves.

6th: Weak group this year, but Lou Will would be my choice. The classic 6th man type who can get buckets in a hurry. The whole 2 girlfriends thing helps put his candidacy over the top.

MVP- Isaiah Thomas
COY- Brad Stevens
GMOY- Danny Ainge
DPOY- Avery Bradley
ROY- Marcus Smart
6M - Isaiah Thomas

This seems fair.

I think he's going to do big things in the NBA once/if he gets a ready to contend roster.

I shouldn't have used "usage rate" because that measures something else from what I was referring. Unfortunately, I don't think a "dribble rate" or "time of possession" metric is available (though I'm sure the front offices have it with the new technologies). With Harden, it just seems that he requires the ball in his hand way too much. I understand that the Rockets have been hit with injuries and so Harden has to act as the de facto point guard, but I still think that it limits them in the postseason.

Could the Rockets have spent more time working on playing when Harden didn't have the ball so much? I don't know. It's tough given that the Western Conference was so cut throat. I just worry that teams will do a lot better job with ball-denial on Harden over a seven game series.

A starting lineup of Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, Evan Turner, Brandon Bass and Tyler Zeller over the last 2 months should not get you in the playoffs. And he did it.

And Ainge deserves credit too. Every trade he has made has gotten this team assets. On paper, the Rondo trade looks crappy. But it got the team picks and Jae Crowder, who is actually pretty good.

Picks are such huge commodities now. And the Celtics have them in spades.

they have a ton of great advanced tracking metrics. They do have "Touches" and "Time of Possession". Here's how Harden compares to the 4 other MVP candidate ball-handlers...

Westbrook --- 91.1 touches per game --- 34.3 MPG
LeBron ------ 81.7 touches per game --- 36.1 MPG
Curry -------- 80.9 touches per game --- 32.9 MPG
Harden ------ 77.2 touches per game --- 36.9 MPG

So Harden actually touches the ball less than the other MVP candidates despite playing more Minutes than all of them.

I'd actually say that one of Harden's greatest strengths as a player is his sense of timing. He knows when he needs to carry the team and when he needs to let the other guys try and get doing. He doesn't require the ball all game like Westbrook or Chris Paul.

It's just that the Rockets offense is SOOOO BAD outside of him, that it just feels like he's getting the ball every time down. It's a matter of perception not reality.

He does go 1on1 more often than any other great player outside of maybe Westbrook. He's the best 1on1 player in the game right now. The game is moving away from ISO ball and ISO Harden is basically the late-game playcall from McHale every single time. That ISO-game stands out and is why people think Harden is always touching the ball.

The Rockets really had no other options. Harden is literally the only player on the team who can create for others on a consistent basis. Like I said, the Rockets PG rotation has been a joke. I respect PatBev for being a hustle guy but he's far from a true PG and isn't nearly as good as his rep on D.

You're right that the Rockets dependence on Harden is why they aren't a true contender this year. But that's 1000000% not Harden's fault, it's the fault of management for not finding a suitable PG to pair next to him. It speaks to his MVP case how much the Rockets rely on him for their offense.

that NBA.com had such extensive tracking stats. It must be perception then about Harden, because it seems like any time I watch the Rockets, he has the ball and playing ISO 1-on-1.

more than any player in the game. I wouldn't be surprised if Harden moved to #1 on the touches list in "Clutch" situations (5 mins or less in 4th/OT of a 5pt game). The Rockets offense in those situations is probably the most predictable in the league , "ISO Harden". It's worked great in the regular season where he's been very clutch but it's a major problem in the playoffs, like you pointed out.

The Player Tracking data on NBA.com is really amazing. They've done an awesome job. The "Rim Protection" data is probably my favorite thing there.

Lowry as a Most Improved Player candidate is a joke considering he had a worse (albeit slightly) statistical year than last year. Guys like Rudy Gobert and Klay Thompson are much more deserving of the award.

Next is Pau over LMA for All NBA 2nd team. Not egregious by any means, but I think LMA should and will get the award over Pau.

For 3rd team.

DeAndre has talent, but you have to do a lot of juggling around to make sure he can benefit your team. You plug and play Al Horford and he will make be high level for any team.

In comment 12233038 AnotherGiantsFan said:

Quote:

Lowry as a Most Improved Player candidate is a joke considering he had a worse (albeit slightly) statistical year than last year. Guys like Rudy Gobert and Klay Thompson are much more deserving of the award. Next is Pau over LMA for All NBA 2nd team. Not egregious by any means, but I think LMA should and will get the award over Pau.

I think my choosing of Lowry had to do with his hot start, but he certainly has cooled down and a guy like Gobert makes a lot more sense.

As far as the other Aldridge/Gasol. I chose Gasol because he leads the NBA in double/doubles and has been so consistent for a team that was killed with injuries. I would have no problems if you switched him for Aldridge. Both are deserving of recognition.

In comment 12233048 AnotherGiantsFan said:

Quote:

For 3rd team. DeAndre has talent, but you have to do a lot of juggling around to make sure he can benefit your team. You plug and play Al Horford and he will make be high level for any team.

I think Jordan's defense and rebounding give him an edge, but against horford has been very good as well.

the 5th/6th seed in the West (as the Warriors were last year) to the #1 record in the whole league a better accomplishment?

I'd give it to Harden, but I think Curry will win & have no problem with that.

ROY: Wiggns.

COY: Kerr. I know Budenholzer has done a great job in ATL, but Kerr's a rookie coach & his team has been a complete juggernaut all season.

Most Improved: Butler.

DPOY: Davis.

In comment 12233249 santacruzom said:

Quote:

the 5th/6th seed in the West (as the Warriors were last year) to the #1 record in the whole league a better accomplishment?

How many guys on Atlanta could start for GS? Demare Carroll?

the starting 5's the Warriors had to face off against on a regular basis were quite a bit tougher than the pillow gauntlet you have to run through in the east.

the Warriors' season wasn't just good or better than predicted... it was historically good. A lot of people give very reasonable arguments that it's one of the best 6-7 regular seasons of all time, and every player on the roster improved (well, except for David Lee).