Guys - I've always thought that something like an "official scorer" in baseball should be applied to interceptions. The Football Outsiders site has such a process / statistic.
... Adjusted interceptions. Here's the basic idea, which we first introduced four years ago:
We add in plays where the quarterback only escaped an interception because the defender couldn't hold onto the ball (dropped interceptions) ... we also included plays where the defender didn't straight-out drop the ball but instead had it knocked out of his hands by an offensive receiver (a "defensed interception").
We subtract plays where the interception (or a dropped interception) is tipped to the defender by a receiver who should have caught the pass.
We subtract Hail Mary interceptions as well as interceptions thrown in desperation on fourth down in the final 2:00 of a game. |
Eli goes from 14 interceptions to 20 and ends up 4th on the list of most interceptions (Andrew Luck is #1 with 23). Eli's adjusted interception rate isn't as bad (0.1% worse than Peyton) as he had 600 attempts.
Although according to this statistic Eli got worse by 6 "adjusted interceptions", I think he had a much better year overall in 2014 (I don't know what his adjusted interceptions were in 2013).
Tom Brady has 11 with the above criteria and the best interception rate of 1.9%.
Obviously it is difficult / impossible to adjust for interceptions due to the receiver running the wrong route (i.e. the Rueben Randle factor) with knowing the details of the play.
I thought it was worth passing along.
Football Outsiders 2014 Adjusted Interceptions Full Article Link - (
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Give him a solid OL and a running game, and turnovers shouldn't be much of an issue. But that's pretty much true of all QBs.
I have no problem with him taking a chance and using his arm strength to squeeze a ball in a tight window on a down field throw and it ends up getting picked off (Simms did this too).
I do have a problem with the "WFT - should have taken a sack / thrown it away" interceptions when the risk didn't seem to match the reward.
I agree the complexity and "high risk / high reward" KG offense upped Eli's interception count and rate.
I almost think this type of analysis when taken out of context is meaningless. It doesn't give any insight into comparing Eli to other QB's who will more quickly settle for dinking and dunking it.
INTs or no, Eli is a special player.
Eli has had brass balls in the clutch in the past. So if you want to call him a gunslinger I see what you're saying. But he has way too many mental lapses and simple plays, when you compare him to the best in the league.
You can never take away how well ge put it together for those runs - but he is not a top 5 QB. Yes he's a top 10er.
What does that even mean, "A defender should of caught..."? The bottom line is they didn't. That's what sports is, you make plays or don't.
Eli has had brass balls in the clutch in the past. So if you want to call him a gunslinger I see what you're saying. But he has way too many mental lapses and simple plays, when you compare him to the best in the league.
You can never take away how well ge put it together for those runs - but he is not a top 5 QB. Yes he's a top 10er.
Matt,
I think your thinking of two years ago against Dallas. And, if you look at the replay or slow mo it wasn't as bad as it appears in real time.
It's more complex in football for reasons already stated (e.g. a receiver that ran a wrong route). One would think the accurately thown balls that are tipped and turn into INTs (SB XLII pass to Steve Smith) are approximately offset by the balls thrown right to a defender that he drops, but this stat attempts to quantify both.
I also that a Hail Mary at the end of a half or end of a game shouldn't be counted that same. Again, this stat attempts to do that.
It's more complex in football for reasons already stated (e.g. a receiver that ran a wrong route). One would think the accurately thown balls that are tipped and turn into INTs (SB XLII pass to Steve Smith) are approximately offset by the balls thrown right to a defender that he drops, but this stat attempts to quantify both.
I also that a Hail Mary at the end of a half or end of a game shouldn't be counted that same. Again, this stat attempts to do that.
I'm not a big enough baseball fan to have an opinion on that either way, but in Football is a silly stat.
There are variables in everything, but in a sport like football, nothing is completely individual.
Begin.....
Well his last int against SF was tipped at the goal line. He also had one where randle dropped one in the end zone that was caught for INT. So there's 2 right off the bat. I am sure there may be another one or so. So article loses legitimacy right from the get go.
They have a lot * in this article. Nothing to get worked up about. You can make a lot of categories if you wanted too.