I know, I know. Who am I? Admittedly just an amateur draftnik who's nuts for the draft. It's just my own humble opinion so rip me if you want, or must. But what better place to post your opinion than a forum? Anyways, my thoughts on 10 players who may have a solid year or two but once their rookie contract is up 4-5 years from now, I think the team that drafts them will have buyers remorse:
1. Leornard Williams--Don't get me wrong. I think Williams will be a solid player. I just don't get this once in a generation player with JJ Watt and Suh comparisons. I've seen film from all 3 years at USC. I see a guy who uses his hands and long arms well to rip and take advantage of weaker opponents. But if that doesn't work or he's going up against someone who is on par with his talent, which he'll see alot more in the pros, he's done. I don't see 100% effort all the time and for whatever reason he's late off of the snap far too often. I question the instincts too. The shoulder surgery last season concerns me as well. Key Stat: Only ONE QB hurry on 3rd down the entire season.
2. Marcus Mariota--His upside to me is Alex Smith, a solid QB who needed years to be comfortable in more of a pro style offense (not to mention Harbaugh's tutelage) but hasn't won anything and certainly didn't live up to the hype of a #1 overall pick. That's the peak though. Otherwise he's another spread offense guy (and how many of those have worked so far?) without adequate arm strength to boot. I can't see Mariota making key throws in tight windows in November and December outside. He'll need a creative coordinator while playing in a warm climate or a dome. He's a nice guy but if being nice is what got you there then Tebow would already be a Hall of Famer.
3. Dante Fowler--I love his hustle, energy and effort. This is where alot of his stats come from but in the pros QBs won't hold the ball as long and there won't be as many, if any unblocked looks at the QB. He's played in every game as a Gator and I still see a raw pass rusher who has more straight line speed than quickness and isn't too effective against the run. Maybe with the proper coaching, which he is willing to take, he can have a similar career arc as Jerry Hughes who started slow before being traded from Indy to Buffalo but otherwise I see a situational player.
4. Randy Gregory--You'd think the character red flags would take a huge hit to his stock but so far it doesn't seem like it has. However the play on the field hasn't blown me away either. I see a guy that from one year to the next did not get better year over year. I had high hopes going into the season and I saw less of a product which to me is a problem. Yes he has good straight line speed and long arms but the weight is concerning. If he gets free, watch out but once a blocker locks on, run or pass, he's done. Watch the Wisconsin game where Melvin Gordon ran wild. Watch the Minnesota game where they ran right at him for the game winning TD. He's too square up top without much shoulder torque. He's also very narrow up top which makes me question if he can put on good weight while maintaining speed/athleticsm. When asked why he hasn't put on weight he said it was a stomach flu. For how long? Or was it the weed? He reminds me too much of Dion Jordan. Similar size, speed, length and buzz which led to him being the #3 overall pick. They said it's top potential unrealized. 26 games later with only 1 start, Dolphins fans are still waiting and all they have to show for it are 3 sacks.
5. Danny Shelton--Don't get me wrong, he was a bully in the trenches. But as any school yard kid knows, what happens when a bully goes up against someone his size? There won't be any Hawaiis, E. Washingtons and Georgia States in the NFL (where 9.5 of his 16.5 TFLs and 7 of his 9 sacks came from). Shelton wears down quickly as well. In many games I saw he was gassed by the end of the 2nd quarter. I wish I could find a stat that showed how much of his production happened in the first half vs. the second. And don't give me the size and playing almost every down story. Most college starters do, regardless of level. He isn't Wilfork, Poe, Ngata or Hankins. His numbers at the combine confirmed that for me. Unless there's better conditioning on his part I see a player that's slightly better than Terrence "Mt." Cody.
6. Arik Armstead--If you're going to have your best game of the season you might as well make it the National Championship but outside of that I don't see the kind of game that warrants the mention of a high pick. He was 8th in TFLs and 6th in sacks on his own team playing DE. He plays high which you can't afford at 6'8" and lacks overall technique. He's not incredibly athletic either. Far too often he's taken out of the play even if it happens at his own feet. I keep hearing Calais Campbell comparisons but outside of the height I don't see it. Plus Campbell went in the middle of the 2nd rd. If he needs the refinement that keeps being repeated, I'd feel a lot more comfortable there rather than somewhere in the top 15. That's way too high for a guy whose rank is based on pure potential. See: Dion Jordan
7. Landon Collins--Collins stock has fallen from the top 10 talk and in some circles even from the top overall safety. But he makes my list because I don't think he belongs in the top 5 safeties. He'll probably still be taken in the first but I think his game is vastly overrated. First, let me say that if I'm taking a safety in the top 20 picks, that guy better be Polumalu, Ed Reed or more recently, Earl Thomas. That means two way--coverage and can lay the wood. I don't think Collins does either well. For a guy that plays deep safety alot, he's late in recognition alot. He also doesn't have the speed or quickness to cover the slot and he lacks the strength to cover the TE. Because of this, alot of people see him as an in the box guy. An in the box guy can be had in the middle rounds but furthermore I don't think he does that particularly well either. He's a pile jumper and almost exclusively tackles low with his shoulder. I lost track on how many missed tackles of his led to large runs and/or TDs because of it. You'd think recent memory would hurt the draft stock of Alabama DBs but I think after a few years, Collins may be the nail in the coffin.
8. Trae Waynes--Waynes has exceptional straightline and recovery speed. I also think he's a better prsopect than his former teammate Darqueze Dennard. I do not think he warrants top 10 conversation though. Waynes top end speed can't make up for his tight hips and he lacks physicality to handle bigger, stronger WRs. I think Waynes can have success and be a starter with teams that still implement some form of the Cover 2 in the league but when we look back at the 2015 I don't think he'll be seen as the #1 CB.
9. Shane Ray--If you've seen the recent report on Ray's background you can do nothing but root for a guy like him. However I don't think he'll see the same success at the pro level as he did in college. Ray's overall height and weight concern me. Not only do I think he's maxed out, I don't think he can be a LB. He doesn't have the fluidity to drop into coverage or chase down the more elusive backs and receivers. He's strictly a pass rusher but at his size and without the hip flexion I don't see him winning many battles, especially once a lineman locks on. Remember, former teammates Michael Sam and Kony Ealy were able to put up numbers in that defense as well.
10. Breshad Perriman--Alot of analysts are wowed by his straightline speed but Perriman is a one trick pony in that regard. He doesn't play to the 4.25 speed and worst of all, his drops are a red flag. 14% is alarmingly high. You can't blame that on an inexperienced QB as some have said why his reception total is as low as it is. He doesn't look like a natural catcher and his overall ball skills are subpar. In another strong overall WR class, the risk is too high to take as high as some suggest imo.
The others, I could see that. I think Williams referred to as a "Reggie White" type is a bit extreme.
Leonard Williams is a great talent, but I do think he lacks some explosiveness. Richard Seymour is the comparison that people continually use with him, and maybe he does become a Seymour/Justin Smith level monster... but I do agree that he's a hair overrated. Still an easy top 5 pick and still the BPA in this draft.
I've been comparing Mariota to Alex Smith forever. But I do think he has the chance to be a rich man's Alex Smith, not just another Alex Smith. He has a better arm than Alex Smith imo and he is a far better athlete. The learning curve for him will be huge.
I really like Fowler. Such a good team player. But I don't see this top 5 talent in him. Both his strength and his explosiveness are lacking imo. I'd take him at #9 because he might be the best guy left, but no way do I touch him in the top 5.
Thanks for asking Reb. I am actually. Hoping to have it done by tomorrow.
Hm. What do those three have in common?
How well does getting a Heisman predict becoming a perennial (even occasional) All-Pro?
I should clarify. although I don't think Mariota has a strong arm (see the last play of the National Championship) I do think it's better than Smith. I was talking more about their style of play though. Short, quick passes mixed with scrambles and designed runs.
Scherff is a solid player and belongs in the first. I will say however that I don't think he's the #1 OL in the draft.
Agree. I also think Williams is the best player in the draft.
Good post by the OP'er though.
Thanks Eric and everyone. If I can get the underrated list done between work I'll try to get it out by tomorrow. Otherwise Monday at the latest.
If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. Just my opinion based on what I saw and where I project where they will be down the line.
As for the comparison talk it's been there since the end of the college season. Just google "Leonard Williams JJ Watt". Williams has said he patterns himself on Watt's game and there's been so much talk from analysts Watt has even spoken on it. And I agree that Watt was underrated.
Will he be 100 percent correct? Highly doubtful. But this is one of the most interesting posts of the day.
"Mariota ... has the chance to be a rich man's Alex Smith"
A "rich man's Alex Smith" could mean that he's a Super Bowl QB.... If I were a GM with a chance at Mariota, I think I would roll those dice and take him.
Quote:
that would be interesting
Thanks for asking Reb. I am actually. Hoping to have it done by tomorrow.
Thanks, I'm looking forward to it. I love sleepers!
Sneak preview, will you be including my man Synjyn Days, RB out of Georgia Tech? ;-)
Ray depends too much on his speed, I don't see many moves like you are saying the hip flexibility to do much in space.
Fowler, spot on and I always come back to the production. He's a great versatile talent but he seems raw for a top 5 pick, he doesn't have the eye popping measurables either.
One thing I think you overlooked with Gregory is his arsenal of pass rush moves. He beats you in a variety of ways has great balance. (That being said I agree with you in the concerns department)
Lastly the only ones I might slightly disagree with is Williams and MM. Williams I look at somewhere between what you are saying about him and the "slam dunk all time great" that some scouts see him as. The guy moves very well for his size and put up numbers with a lot of attention last year. The crux with him is it's very hard to project if he has the quickness to get to the QB consistently in the NFL if for no other reason than he rarely had space to operate.
MM IMO you have assessed well as well. However, he is a QB that has the "it factor" he looks like a leader and his teammates seem to respond as such. Whereas Smith doesn't have that whatsoever so it's a hard comp. I don't really see the best comp to him because the kid can move. That really makes up for arm strength issues because he can buy his receivers more time to get separation. (Wilson has a better arm but not that much necessarily and he overcomes his vertical challenge in the same way)
Great read, thanks.
I think you're spot on about Mariotta - he could be a player, but I really think there's something to the idea that some of these QBs who excel in college spread offenses end up struggling in the pros
Florida players are generally way over-hyped - I don't think he is at all.
With the old DC I would have been worried drafting either Beasley or Gregory. With Spags, I do not - he would figure it out with either of them
2. Dorial Green Beckham. WR. Oklahoma
3. Donovan Smith. OT. Penn St
4. Sean Mannion QB. Oregon St
5. Letterious Walton. DT. Central Michigan
6. Jeremy Langford RB. Michigan St
7. Durrell Eskridge. Safety. Syracuse
8. Bryce Petty. QB. Baylor
9. TJ Yeldin RB Alabama
10. Tyrus Thompson OT Oklahama