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Draft is 4 days away, Part 1 of my predictions

Sy'56 : 4/26/2015 3:20 pm
Sunday through Wednesday, I will throw out some thoughts on the draft of what I think will happen, not necessarily what will happen. Some of it will be NYG related, most of it will not. These thoughts are a combination of guesses and some information I get from people "in the know". I am hardly an insider like Bob McGinn, but I do get tidbits here and there. I can't give everything but I can offer some. This will end with my 3 round mock draft on Wednesday.

-Starting at the top, Winston is going to be the #1 pick. I don't think there is enough out there to push him out of that slot. He is NFL ready and he sure can sell himself. Teammates love him. He gets the most out of them and he is always picking them up. He is an immature knucklehead that made a lot of stupid, in-the-moment decisions. He's an idiot but I think he is harmless. TB was close to winning 7+ games in 2015 and a better QB could have easily been the difference there. Lovie Smith is a compassionate person and I think he will welcome Winston with open arms.

-#2 is where this gets interesting. From what I read, hear, and listen to...Mariota will be the second pick but he most likely won't end up on the Titans. They have shown interest to drive the price of trading up to a point of guaranteeing an extra 1st round pick in 2016. Who are the teams looking, and what would they have to give up?

*NEW YORK JETS*
The secret got out that NYJ had a private workout and 2-day visit with Mariota. They haven't showed an ounce of interest in Winston. I heard about this a few weeks ago. Their interest in Mariota is real. If they can get him without selling their future, I think they will go for it and give Geno one more year of starting to prove whether or not he can be the guy.

NYJ won't give up any players. Some have said they could dangle Sheldon Richardson instead of a future 1st, but I don't see it happening. NYJ could likely give their 6th overall, 70th overall, and 2016 1st.


CLEVELAND BROWNS
With two first rounders, Cleveland has the best shot at pulling off a draft day deal. If Mariota declared last year, CLE would have went after him hard. They really like him a lot more than Manziel. Throw in the Johnny Football drama and I think there is a legit shot this happens. What do they do with Manziel, though? They could keep him around and hope it pushes him to work harder than than feel entitled. Then...if they have 2 capable QBs (which is never a bad thing), they have a legit shot at trading one to PHI or whoever is looking for a QB in 2016.

This would likely cost CLE their 12th, 19th, and 2016 1st rounder. CLE could get that first rounder back if they have 2 capable QBs on their roster at this time next year.


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
This Phillip Rivers rumor won't go away. Part of me thought it was a media creation just for traffic to their websites. But everyone I have talked to about it said there is a 50+% chance this happens on draft day. I think it has less to do with Rivers not wanting to live in Los Angeles, and more to do with San Diego having a desire for Mariota and seeing that Rivers is almost at the end. The question that I have no idea how to answer is, what is Rivers worth? A swap of #2 overall for Rivers seems unlikely, as I don't think he is worth that at this point of his career.

If San Diego offered Rivers to Tennessee, they would likely need to throw in their 17th overall selection. if Tennessee signs Rivers to a long term contract, they would likely throw in a 3rd or 4th round conditional pick as well.


PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Trading up from the 20th overall pick to #2 seems impossible. But after this offseason, are you really going to doubt Kelly can pull it off? No player on that team is safe and Tennessee has some cap room to play with. If Kelly thinks Mariota is going to bring that offense to the highest possible level, he'll trade several players and a couple picks for him. While it may be too hard for PHI to trade up with what they have alone, I think Kelly gets a third party involved. Here is my best guess


PHI acquires

#2 overall (rd 1) from TEN

TEN acquires

#12 overall (rd1) from CLE
#19 overall (rd1) from CLE
#20 overall (rd1) from PHI

CLE acquires

QB Sam Bradford from PHI
OT Lane Johnson from PHI
#52 overall (rd2) from PHI
2016 2nd rounder from TEN


Seems unlikely....but then again so has this entire PHI offseason.

-The order in which the edge rushers come off the board is anyone's guess. There have been some to claim they know but I don't buy it. These guys are pretty different and I think it just comes down to schematic and situational fits. I do think Gregory's drug issues and Ray's probable need for surgery will bring them out of the top 10, maybe even in to the 20s, respectively. Who is going after the edge guys first? JAC and ATL appear to be sure things with WAS, NYJ, and CHI as possibilities. One team I keep hearing is "desperate" for one of the top edge guys and might be trading up for one...Pittsburgh. Houston is a willing trade up candidate for one as well and watch out for New Orleans. If Beasley falls to #9 (I don't think he will), that may be NYGs best opportunity to trade back.

-Two NYG tidbits....they are looking for a DT to pair with Hankins. Ellis and Jenkins can be role guys...but there are more than a few DTs they like early in this class. My best guesses are Carl Davis and Eddie Goldman. Malcolm Brown at #9? Not happening. Todd Gurley to NYG? There is a legit chance. His knee is passing everyone's test right now and many think this has been his lower body stronger than what it was prior to the injury.


Discuss away....




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And I like Fisher...  
Sy'56 : 4/26/2015 5:44 pm : link
But I'm not sure he can be a year 1 starter on a winning team. He is going to get pushed around
RE: And I like Fisher...  
Dunedin81 : 4/26/2015 5:48 pm : link
In comment 12250222 Sy'56 said:
Quote:
But I'm not sure he can be a year 1 starter on a winning team. He is going to get pushed around


Fisher certainly has a learning curve, much of it in the weight room, but I'd have to thing he could start for someone mid-season. Marpet has the physical tools to start early but he may take some time because of the level of competition.
Unless Gurley is the next Jim Brown  
SanFranNowNCGiantsFan : 4/26/2015 5:49 pm : link
He's a throw your remote at the TV pick.
If we pass on OL in Round 1  
Torrag : 4/26/2015 5:49 pm : link
I've zeroed in on Laken Tomlinson as the target I'd prefer that is most likely to be available in Round 2. I have Erving rated higher but he'll be off the board imo...
Sy  
blapre74 : 4/26/2015 5:51 pm : link
what chance do you envision a draft day trade down, in order to pick up an extra 3rd and snag, say, Gurley? I'm very interested in your response, and Im sure it depends upon the Gmen confident in his knee being 100%.
San Fran  
blapre74 : 4/26/2015 5:52 pm : link
the next Jim Brown would be the first choice. If Gurley is the next Emmitt Smith you would throw the remote?
If you really want Gurley take him @9  
Torrag : 4/26/2015 5:54 pm : link
His stock is on the rise and he could go anywhere from Atlanta #8 or after...
If he is that next AP  
DonnieD89 : 4/26/2015 5:56 pm : link
I would take him. Where would Gurley be if the knee was not an issue? Have to consider him, if the he is definitely checking out fine.
SY  
Earl the goat : 4/26/2015 5:58 pm : link
If I'm Tennessee. I do that trade in a heartbeat
Go with Mettenberger. Get lucky and hope the three first rounders contribute. Draft Sean Mannion or Bryce Petty in rd 2
RE: Sy  
Sy'56 : 4/26/2015 5:58 pm : link
In comment 12250230 blapre74 said:
Quote:
what chance do you envision a draft day trade down, in order to pick up an extra 3rd and snag, say, Gurley? I'm very interested in your response, and Im sure it depends upon the Gmen confident in his knee being 100%.


I wouldn't count on a trade down...simply because it just isn't common. EVERY team wants extra picks. EVERY team hates losing picks So I would say there is less than a 5% chance NYG trades down.
RE: If you really want Gurley take him @9  
Sy'56 : 4/26/2015 6:00 pm : link
In comment 12250237 Torrag said:
Quote:
His stock is on the rise and he could go anywhere from Atlanta #8 or after...


Gurley could go #5 (WAS) or #6 (NYJ)
Sy statistically/historically you may be incorrect  
Torrag : 4/26/2015 6:03 pm : link
I haven't done the research but it seems like at least 1 and usually more than 1 pick in the Top 10 gets moved every year.
Sy  
blapre74 : 4/26/2015 6:05 pm : link
at the risk of sounding obsequious, I admire your draft knowledge. I used to get Pro Football Weekly, and the Kiper draft guide, but I'm learning more from your posts. Please keep up your good work. :)
Gurley is a much smoother athlete than T-Rich was  
Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 4/26/2015 6:14 pm : link
I think T-Rich being so mechanical in his movements is one of the reasons he busted, don't think that would be the case with Gurley. Very fluid for a guy his size. I don't see the Peterson comparisons because Peterson had rare burst and is a freak of nature athletically. But I could see Gurley become a Lynch/Lacy level physical move the chains runner, with the potential to make plays in the passing game.

I like the potential in Gurley. And with our 32nd ranked running game, of course a great young RB talent could really help the cause. But taking RBs in the Top 10 is risky in the first place, now you want to draft a RB coming off an ACL injury in the Top 10? Just too risky. Especially when you already invested so much in the position already with Williams/Jennings/Vereen. I really like Gurley and I hope he becomes a star somewhere in the AFC. But at #9, I don't think the risk is worth it when this team has so many other clearer needs. But Reese does like playmakers, so it wouldn't be shocking.
Comparing Richardson to Gurley  
Sy'56 : 4/26/2015 6:15 pm : link
is foolish and baseless.
RE: RE: RE: Jon  
Jon in NYC : 4/26/2015 6:18 pm : link
In comment 12250211 Dunedin81 said:
Quote:
In comment 12250207 Jon in NYC said:


Quote:


In comment 12250194 BigBlueShock said:


Quote:


There is more than one round in the draft. If the Giants don't take a lineman in the 1st round, that doesn't mean John Jerry is the man. There are plenty of G's that will be available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds



Sure there are, but how many of them will be able to step in and play at a high level?



In the 2nd or 3rd? Probably a handful of them. Richburg (who may have been a reach), Snee, even Pugh was closer to 40 than he was to 9. It's tough to draft a plug and play LT at 40 but a guard you draft that high you'd expect to take serious reps in his first year. Cann and Tomlinson could very well be Day 1 starters. Fisher and Ogbuehi could potentially start at RT at some point this year.


Sure, but then we may have to reach for one of those guys, because not coming out of the draft with OL help is not an option.
Somebody  
AcidTest : 4/26/2015 6:19 pm : link
reported that the Giants will explore trading up for Williams or Fowler if either falls to five. The Giants recently talked to Fowler, and last year, Reese tried to trade up all the way to the top of the fourth round to get Williams. My guess is that the price will be too high. Williams is the only one I would consider trading up for, and that will undoubtedly be very expensive.

I still think the pick will be Scherff, and if not, then Flowers. I'd take Peat over Flowers and maybe Scherff because of his feet, but I'd also try and trade down and then take Collins.
Gurleys not my first choice  
BigBlueShock : 4/26/2015 6:20 pm : link
And I agree it's prolly not the right choice. But damn, it is fun to think about. We'd have our own version of the Three Musketeers.

Eli
Gurley
OBJ

The OL would probably implode, but if it did hold up, that's a dangerous offense to deal with.
Sy, few questions for you  
Emil : 4/26/2015 6:29 pm : link
Great stuff as always, you've provoked a few questions.

1. Do you think the Giants would trade up if Williams or Fowler fell out of the top 5?

2. What type of DT do you think the Giants are trying to pair with Hankins? I assume this means Bromley may not be ready to contribute on a regular basis in 2015.

3. Considering you emphasized DT as something the Giants would like to plus up, what do you think they feel about their DE situation. (I wouldn't be thrilled with it, but what do I know.)

Thanks

OL  
stretch234 : 4/26/2015 6:29 pm : link
Sy - Your threads are fantastic as always.

This is my major concern with Scherff and picking him at 9. He would be only the 2nd OG picked in the top 10 in the last 15 years. For that, he needs to be a top 3 or 4 player at his position. Problem is he is not as good a prospect as Martin, Warmack, Iupati, DeCastro and others

He may posses athletic ability and be the most ready for the NFL, but he universally looked at as a G in the NFL who could play T. That implies he is not a top level prospect for T.

As Giants fans, do we really want the 9th overall pick on a player who may be only marginally better than a guy you can get at 40 and later. Good G can be found all over the draft - T are much different
My dream is that the Eagles  
mrvax : 4/26/2015 6:33 pm : link
give up a fortune for Mariota and he turns out to be very pedestrian.

It would also confirm that Chip isn't quite as f'ing smart as he thinks he is. "Time of possession is a meaningless stat."
My ass.

Winston  
BigBlueCane : 4/26/2015 6:35 pm : link
is far from harmless and given the character of his teammates, their endorsement is not what I would be looking for. He needs someone like Coughlin not Lovie to reach out and straighten him out.

I really hope Landon Collins and Todd Gurley aren't in the mix. Collins isn't very good and I seriously question the idea of wasting another first round pick on a position devalued in the modern NFL.
The giants view Sherff as more than a guard  
Rick in Dallas : 4/26/2015 6:39 pm : link
Reese has already said he can play tackle. Tired of hearing that he is just a guard.
RE: Winston  
mrvax : 4/26/2015 6:39 pm : link
In comment 12250283 BigBlueCane said:
Quote:
is far from harmless and given the character of his teammates, their endorsement is not what I would be looking for. He needs someone like Coughlin not Lovie to reach out and straighten him out.

I really hope Landon Collins and Todd Gurley aren't in the mix. Collins isn't very good and I seriously question the idea of wasting another first round pick on a position devalued in the modern NFL.


Coughlin couldn't straighten out Will Hill so maybe Smith should be given a shot at Winston. And if Gurley turns out to be almost as good as AP, he'd certainly be worth a 1st rounder, IMO.
Rick  
stretch234 : 4/26/2015 6:55 pm : link
This is the 9th pick in the draft - he needs to be a sure thing at a position and be excellent at it. Sure as hell do not hear any in the NFL describing Sherff as that potential at T. All we hear is his best position in the NFL is G

Does he represent any upgrade over a healthy Pugh at RT
People get bent out of shape about RB longevity...  
Dunedin81 : 4/26/2015 7:13 pm : link
but Kiwanuka is the last 1st rounder we resigned after a rookie deal (JPP on the franchise tag, still doesn't have a 2nd contract). We don't need a ten year starter because we probably won't keep him for ten years anyway. A four or a five year starter, if he is as good as he seems like he might be, would be just fine.
Smith  
BigBlueCane : 4/26/2015 7:37 pm : link
ain't gonna be able to straighten out Winston, Maybe Derrick Brooks can if he keeps word and babysits him 24/7.

And I love Gurley's talent and have been a huge fan of his.

But you don't draft RB's in the first round anymore. It's a waste of a draft pick.
Sy great job  
Carl in CT : 4/26/2015 8:06 pm : link
I'm getting so sick of OL, OL, OL at #9. We need an impact player on the D. What happens when JPP leaves? Our problem was not the OL at the end of the year we scored enough points. Grab a OG in round 2 or 3 OK. But remember we have always won with D first. We couldn't stop anyone! Until we do that I don't care how good of an offense we have we will still suck! Feed the D for 5-6 of our 8 picks!!!!!!!
RE: Smith  
Sy'56 : 4/26/2015 8:12 pm : link
In comment 12250332 BigBlueCane said:
Quote:
ain't gonna be able to straighten out Winston, Maybe Derrick Brooks can if he keeps word and babysits him 24/7.

And I love Gurley's talent and have been a huge fan of his.

But you don't draft RB's in the first round anymore. It's a waste of a draft pick.


Take a look around the league and check out how many teams have 1st round RBs. I think you would be surprised
I  
AcidTest : 4/26/2015 8:17 pm : link
think most of the time you don't take a RB in the first. Most of the time. This year is different. Gurley and Gordon have first round talent IMO. Would I take Gurley at #9 if he hadn't torn his ACL? Probably. But he did, so I wouldn't, not because the position has to some extent been deemphasized, but due to the ACL. It's too much of a risk at #9, especially given all the other needs of this team. But somebody may well take Gurley before #9, which will push more players down to us.
working a mock  
CGiants07 : 4/26/2015 8:20 pm : link
these guys go top 8 who you pick?

Winston
mariota
fowler
Williams
Scheriff
Beasley
Cooper
Gurley
thinking between  
CGiants07 : 4/26/2015 8:22 pm : link
White
Flowers
Shelton
Gregory
Peat
White  
Jon in NYC : 4/26/2015 9:14 pm : link
easily.
RE: White  
blueblood : 4/26/2015 9:36 pm : link
In comment 12250474 Jon in NYC said:
Quote:
easily.


if White makes it to 9.. its not a lock that he will.. I could see White (playmaker) in round one and then will have to go OL in round 2
I see J Winston  
montanagiant : 4/26/2015 11:04 pm : link
And all that comes to mind is big bust
You take White or Cooper at #9  
SGMen : 4/26/2015 11:52 pm : link
and never look back.

Guard #2 and maybe DT #3
just because  
BigBlueCane : 4/27/2015 4:20 am : link
many teams do it doesn't make it smart.
wow! Sy'56, quite a post!  
ColHowPepper : 4/27/2015 7:51 am : link
Coming from almost anyone but you, that Mariota trade speculation would have seemed bizzaro and off the wall, but gotta give it some credence.

And as to NYG, also, but from you, would have dismissed Gurley out of hand, except now it's coming from you, Boylhart and his guy.

I would scorn Reese, yet again, for this pick; and, as I've known in my bones since April 2014.....
Quote:
-Two NYG tidbits....they are looking for a DT to pair with Hankins. Ellis and Jenkins can be role guys...but there are more than a few DTs they like early in this class. My best guesses are Carl Davis and Eddie Goldman....
....
And so, the Giants' war room is celebrating, yet again, "with their pick in the 3rd round, the NY Giants select......Jay Bromley, DT, Syracuse........" from whom they expect great things....
NOT

Not that I would mind a DT in the first three rounds if he's the right guy, and hopefully Ellis proves to be a shrewd pickup from the Jets.
Sorry, but this is ridiculous:  
Klaatu : 4/27/2015 8:11 am : link
Quote:
And so, the Giants' war room is celebrating, yet again, "with their pick in the 3rd round, the NY Giants select......Jay Bromley, DT, Syracuse........" from whom they expect great things....
NOT


You don't write a guy off - especially a DT - after one season. Neither you nor Sy know how the Giants feel about Bromley, and if they were to draft another 3-tech it says less about Bromley and more about Jenkins (age) and Kuhn (less than JAG) in my opinion. Seems to me that the butthurt-factor is strong here. Can't get over the fact that the Giants drafted Bromley in the 3rd round, when the majority of pundits said he was a Day 3 pick.

It's just like drafting Richburg in the 2nd round, Last year, I said that if the Giants wanted Richburg they'd have to get him at 43 and every one (including Sy) said I was nuts. Lo and behold, the Giants drafted Richburg at 43. Cue the "Jerry Reach" Brigade.
If Giants go DT in round one  
Jimmy Googs : 4/27/2015 8:24 am : link
we better go offensive line for the next two picks.

While you want the draft to come to you, this would seem like forcing it.

I could live with a DL in Rd 1, but like others I would want to see  
Victor in CT : 4/27/2015 9:44 am : link
OL in Rd 2 and even Rd 3 if the value is there.
RE: If Giants go DT in round one  
Hades07 : 4/27/2015 10:20 am : link
In comment 12250861 Jimmy Googs said:
Quote:
we better go offensive line for the next two picks.

While you want the draft to come to you, this would seem like forcing it.
But taking an OL in the first so you aren't forced to take one in the 2nd isn't forcing it?

IDK about you, but I would rather be forced to draft by positional need in the 2nd than in the 1st.
a round 1 pick should be  
Jersey55 : 4/27/2015 10:51 am : link
a day one starter and a playmaker or a LT who can dominate...
Jersey...  
Hades07 : 4/27/2015 10:56 am : link
...there a lot of things in this world that SHOULD be; however, we must deal in what is or is not. Leave the shoulds to the philosophers and the children.
Hades - I do agree with you although my thoughts  
Jimmy Googs : 4/27/2015 11:00 am : link
were more focused about reliable quantities to the OL.

I also have looked less at the DT draft pool than other positions so that is on me.

I look at Winston  
djm : 4/27/2015 11:18 am : link
and see a guy that can make all the throws. A guy that is virtually beloved by his teammates and a guy that handles himself extremely well on the field. A QB that is very difficult to take down and can run when needed. Big game player...may not be perfect on the field but when needed makes the plays needed.

And he's a guy that makes dumb decisions off the field. Immature yes, but how bad a kid is he? I question how bad he is because he seems so together on the field. I'd draft him if I needed a QB and do everything I could to foster the right locker room and environment for Winston to succeed.
I'm no expert  
Hades07 : 4/27/2015 11:18 am : link
But it seems, based on what I am reading from people who are experts, that OL will most likely be the BPA at 9. So it works out either way.
In an average at best Draft year, if the Giants  
Jimmy Googs : 4/27/2015 11:41 am : link
came away with one of (if not the top) O-lineman in the draft I would more than pleased.
You may get your wish...  
Hades07 : 4/27/2015 11:54 am : link
...looks like the of the 8 picks ahead of them at least 2 will be on the DL (Williams, Fowler), 2 will be QBs (Winston, Mariotta) and 2 will be WR(Cooper, White). So that means maximum of two OL will go before their pick, more likely one.
RE: Sorry, but this is ridiculous:  
ColHowPepper : 4/27/2015 2:54 pm : link
In comment 12250849 Klaatu said:
Quote:

Quote:
And so, the Giants' war room is celebrating, yet again, "with their pick in the 3rd round, the NY Giants select......Jay Bromley, DT, Syracuse........" from whom they expect great things....
NOT

You don't write a guy off - especially a DT - after one season. Neither you nor Sy know how the Giants feel about Bromley, and if they were to draft another 3-tech it says less about Bromley and more about Jenkins (age) and Kuhn (less than JAG) in my opinion. Seems to me that the butthurt-factor is strong here....
It's just like drafting Richburg in the 2nd round, Last year, I said... Lo and behold, the Giants drafted Richburg at 43. Cue the "Jerry Reach" Brigade.


No, probably, no, and good for you

No, you don't write a DT off after one season, but maybe in Bromley's case you do, or should. He's in my elite club, joining Sintim, Brewer, Austin, about each of whom I posted unambiguously and strongly, immediately after his drafting and initial camp, that these were mistakes, trusting my eyes.
Emil, among the top rank of BBI when it comes to the draft, said: "2. What type of DT do you think the Giants are trying to pair with Hankins? I assume this means Bromley may not be ready to contribute on a regular basis in 2015."
This jibes with a problem Reese has had since the beginning: if his rookies take the field in Year 1 or at beginning of Year 2 (Linval, due to specific circumstances), well and good. If not, they're buried and languish until Reese has to admit his mistakes and move on.
If Sy is right, which is what my post was premised on, and along with Ellis, what does that signal for Bromley?
The "probably" is for Jenkins and Kuhn, I tend to agree. But with too many needs across the roster, and if Sy is right about going DT again in the 2nd or 3rd, how else can Bromley's talent and development be read? If, as you posit, the Giants remain high on his potential (and that's a red flag in the JR regime for guys who do not see the field early), then why go DT at 2 or 3 when we have such major needs at OL, DE, S, WR (RR/Cruz factors), LB, TE, and, if Sy and Boylhart are right, RB? Why go DT there when you just got one and, if you are right, you don't write him off after a year?

I didn't have any butthurt about where Bromley should have been drafted, I'd never even heard of the guy before Day 2 of the draft. But I looked at the film of him that was posted, and like the other guys in my elite list, he appeared to me to be mediocre against college competition. FOR WHAT THAT'S WORTH.

As to Richburg, I hadn't been aware of that dynamic when his pick at #2 surfaced, and sincere congrats on nailing it. You belong in the upper rank of BBI draft experts, and I hope Richburg overcomes the two hurdles facing him, change of position (even if it is back to the one he played at CU) and going head-to-head with NFL DTs and NTs. We need him to get physically stronger and succeed.
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