Sunday through Wednesday, I will throw out some thoughts on the draft of what I think will happen, not necessarily what will happen. Some of it will be NYG related, most of it will not. These thoughts are a combination of guesses and some information I get from people "in the know". I am hardly an insider like Bob McGinn, but I do get tidbits here and there. I can't give everything but I can offer some. This will end with my 3 round mock draft on Wednesday.
-Starting at the top, Winston is going to be the #1 pick. I don't think there is enough out there to push him out of that slot. He is NFL ready and he sure can sell himself. Teammates love him. He gets the most out of them and he is always picking them up. He is an immature knucklehead that made a lot of stupid, in-the-moment decisions. He's an idiot but I think he is harmless. TB was close to winning 7+ games in 2015 and a better QB could have easily been the difference there. Lovie Smith is a compassionate person and I think he will welcome Winston with open arms.
-#2 is where this gets interesting. From what I read, hear, and listen to...Mariota will be the second pick but he most likely won't end up on the Titans. They have shown interest to drive the price of trading up to a point of guaranteeing an extra 1st round pick in 2016. Who are the teams looking, and what would they have to give up?
*NEW YORK JETS*
The secret got out that NYJ had a private workout and 2-day visit with Mariota. They haven't showed an ounce of interest in Winston. I heard about this a few weeks ago. Their interest in Mariota is real. If they can get him without selling their future, I think they will go for it and give Geno one more year of starting to prove whether or not he can be the guy.
NYJ won't give up any players. Some have said they could dangle Sheldon Richardson instead of a future 1st, but I don't see it happening. NYJ could likely give their 6th overall, 70th overall, and 2016 1st.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
With two first rounders, Cleveland has the best shot at pulling off a draft day deal. If Mariota declared last year, CLE would have went after him hard. They really like him a lot more than Manziel. Throw in the Johnny Football drama and I think there is a legit shot this happens. What do they do with Manziel, though? They could keep him around and hope it pushes him to work harder than than feel entitled. Then...if they have 2 capable QBs (which is never a bad thing), they have a legit shot at trading one to PHI or whoever is looking for a QB in 2016.
This would likely cost CLE their 12th, 19th, and 2016 1st rounder. CLE could get that first rounder back if they have 2 capable QBs on their roster at this time next year.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
This Phillip Rivers rumor won't go away. Part of me thought it was a media creation just for traffic to their websites. But everyone I have talked to about it said there is a 50+% chance this happens on draft day. I think it has less to do with Rivers not wanting to live in Los Angeles, and more to do with San Diego having a desire for Mariota and seeing that Rivers is almost at the end. The question that I have no idea how to answer is, what is Rivers worth? A swap of #2 overall for Rivers seems unlikely, as I don't think he is worth that at this point of his career.
If San Diego offered Rivers to Tennessee, they would likely need to throw in their 17th overall selection. if Tennessee signs Rivers to a long term contract, they would likely throw in a 3rd or 4th round conditional pick as well.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Trading up from the 20th overall pick to #2 seems impossible. But after this offseason, are you really going to doubt Kelly can pull it off? No player on that team is safe and Tennessee has some cap room to play with. If Kelly thinks Mariota is going to bring that offense to the highest possible level, he'll trade several players and a couple picks for him. While it may be too hard for PHI to trade up with what they have alone, I think Kelly gets a third party involved. Here is my best guess
PHI acquires
#2 overall (rd 1) from TEN
TEN acquires
#12 overall (rd1) from CLE
#19 overall (rd1) from CLE
#20 overall (rd1) from PHI
CLE acquires
QB Sam Bradford from PHI
OT Lane Johnson from PHI
#52 overall (rd2) from PHI
2016 2nd rounder from TEN
Seems unlikely....but then again so has this entire PHI offseason.
-The order in which the edge rushers come off the board is anyone's guess. There have been some to claim they know but I don't buy it. These guys are pretty different and I think it just comes down to schematic and situational fits. I do think Gregory's drug issues and Ray's probable need for surgery will bring them out of the top 10, maybe even in to the 20s, respectively. Who is going after the edge guys first? JAC and ATL appear to be sure things with WAS, NYJ, and CHI as possibilities. One team I keep hearing is "desperate" for one of the top edge guys and might be trading up for one...Pittsburgh. Houston is a willing trade up candidate for one as well and watch out for New Orleans. If Beasley falls to #9 (I don't think he will), that may be NYGs best opportunity to trade back.
-Two NYG tidbits....they are looking for a DT to pair with Hankins. Ellis and Jenkins can be role guys...but there are more than a few DTs they like early in this class. My best guesses are Carl Davis and Eddie Goldman. Malcolm Brown at #9? Not happening. Todd Gurley to NYG? There is a legit chance. His knee is passing everyone's test right now and many think this has been his lower body stronger than what it was prior to the injury.
Discuss away....
Assuming they don't trade Manziel, they'll probably keep him for at least another year given what they invested. But he could easily start the season as the #3 QB on the roster, which decreases his chances of playing even if Mariota gets hurt. And even if he played, and was phenomenal, it still might not be enough to get anyone to give up a #1. Teams would be scared he'd revert back to his irresponsible ways. I give him credit for getting treatment, but it's very unlikely any team will ever trade a #1 for Manziel.
Wednesday.
Assuming they don't trade Manziel, they'll probably keep him for at least another year given what they invested. But he could easily start the season as the #3 QB on the roster, which decreases his chances of playing even if Mariota gets hurt. And even if he played, and was phenomenal, it still might not be enough to get anyone to give up a #1. Teams would be scared he'd revert back to his irresponsible ways. I give him credit for getting treatment, but it's very unlikely any team will ever trade a #1 for Manziel.
Right now? I agree. If Manziel plays well in 2015 however...teams will gladly give up a #1 for him. No question.
Think there's any chance Landon Collins could be the pick?
Think there's any chance Landon Collins could be the pick?
I do. I think Collins is in their top 9.
I think NYG will have Scherff ranked #1 among the OL. They like hybrid guys and he is exactly that. They like good athletes, guys that can really move and Scherff, like I've been saying, is the top athlete among the OL in this class when it comes to functional movement.
I heard the report that his knee has been checked. It has only been 6 months since his ACL. Just read the latest and it says he is about 6 weeks ahead of schedule. Really don't see him being ready for camp nor would I want him to even try.
Personally, I think the versatility thing is overblown. Sure, Diehl played multiple positions, but Ohara, Snee, Seubert, and MacKenzie didn't, and outside of a handful of times lining up as a TE early on, neither has Beatty.
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The Giants covet athletic numbers and versatility in their O-linemen. Scherff has the best available in both categories.
Personally, I think the versatility thing is overblown. Sure, Diehl played multiple positions, but Ohara, Snee, Seubert, and MacKenzie didn't, and outside of a handful of times lining up as a TE early on, neither has Beatty.
Seubert was versatile. Snee and McKenzie less so.
Sure they have...to justify some of the decisions they've made, in the draft and in free agency.
No it's not, Tor. You draft Beatty, you think he can play LT. You draft Pugh, it's all about versatility. You sign Boothe, it's all about versatility. You sign Baas (and Walton), it's not.
If the Giants draft an OL at #9, it won't be because he's versatile, it's because they think he can play LT - even if he starts out at RT.
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Your kind of making the point though. Not many can play both at a high level. That's why it is desirable and valuable. JR and TC have confirmed their opinion on the subject many times.
Sure they have...to justify some of the decisions they've made, in the draft and in free agency.
So, wait. Are you saying that they are making it up to make their decisions seem more legit? Wtf? So they draft and sign versatile players, but they don't really covet them, they just say they do?
Unbelievable.
If Beasley falls and is available do the Giants take him?
Take Scherff, plug him into LG, upgrade the pass game and the run game.
If you want a RB to take over next year, give me Ajayi in the 3rd or someone of the like.
Could be...or the writers are making their best guess because they don't have a story and they need something to write....again
There will be a good guard available with their 2nd pick. And I actually think NYG is content with what they have at DE for this year. They won't reach for one. But after the 2nd...the OL talent may drop considerably.
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No it's not, Tor. You draft Beatty, you think he can play LT. You draft Pugh, it's all about versatility. You sign Boothe, it's all about versatility. You sign Baas (and Walton), it's not.
If the Giants draft an OL at #9, it won't be because he's versatile, it's because they think he can play LT - even if he starts out at RT.
Disagree they go in with an-in stone thought if it's Scherff. I think they try Scherff out at both and see where he's better.
They do value versatility...it's not the end-all but they like guys that can be moved around.
If Beasley falls and is available do the Giants take him?
My guess is no. He has never showed anything besides speed rushing and I think NYG wants more than that, whether it's a DE or hybrid edge guy.
Sure there are, but how many of them will be able to step in and play at a high level?
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There is more than one round in the draft. If the Giants don't take a lineman in the 1st round, that doesn't mean John Jerry is the man. There are plenty of G's that will be available in the 2nd and 3rd rounds
Sure there are, but how many of them will be able to step in and play at a high level?
In the 2nd or 3rd? Probably a handful of them. Richburg (who may have been a reach), Snee, even Pugh was closer to 40 than he was to 9. It's tough to draft a plug and play LT at 40 but a guard you draft that high you'd expect to take serious reps in his first year. Cann and Tomlinson could very well be Day 1 starters. Fisher and Ogbuehi could potentially start at RT at some point this year.
Fisher certainly has a learning curve, much of it in the weight room, but I'd have to thing he could start for someone mid-season. Marpet has the physical tools to start early but he may take some time because of the level of competition.