AAA-
Bowman 5.2 innings 5 hits 3 runs 2 earned 2 walks 3 k's
Herrera 2-4, 2b, BB
Ceciliani 2-4, 2 HR
AA-
King 1-3, HR, BB, K
Nimmo 1-4
Boyd 0-4
Gant 7 innings 4 hits 0 runs 2 walks 5 k's
Alvarez 1 perfect 1 k
A+
Fulmer 7 innings 4 hits 3 runs -0 walks 9 k's
Conforto 2-4, HR
Rosario 1-4
Urena 2-4
Savannah
0-5, K
Becerra 1-4. 2 k's
We haven't "had to" deal with this in a while but player development at the big league level will have to take a back seat to winning (which I agree with unless it's messing with a players overall development). I just don't think it makes sense to "speed up" expectations on guys because they aren't ready to be really good for the 2015 Mets. Guys like Wheeler and Harvey had the luxury of being on bad teams. Montero is under the gun because we have expectations this year but if this were 2013 or 2014 would anybody be ready to pull the plug on him? The baseline needs to be "as good as Gee or Niese" at minimum. They obviously can't "give away" games but again... we are talking about 8 total starts. He still missed bats, to me that's a major positive vs. say 42 innings with a low era but 23 k's. Even looking at his game log...I think people would be surprised what they see Link - ( New Window )
This would be a concern if the marginal starter was actually good. So if our 5th guy was Bartolo, and Matz/Thor were absolutely ready, it would be an interesting debate. But Gee was a 0.4 fWAR, 4.52 FIP guy last season, and a 4.41 FIP guy this year. So long as Montero isnt consistently getting blown off the mound, I dont think it's a massive risk to give him some starts over Gee. I would 100% give RM a shot in this window before Thor & Matz force their way up here. And if not, trade him. Letting a guy like Montero default into a permanent RP regardless of talent is an absolutely waste.
If he has another bad start tonight and Montero looks good tomorrow, there's going to be a lot of unhappy Met fans if Montero goesn't get Gee's spot. It'd be hard to blame them.
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totally for Montero over Gee but they picked Gee over Montero despite Montero's excellent spring. I just don't think they believe Gee can help at all out of the pen. Terry called him "awkward" out there.
If he has another bad start tonight and Montero looks good tomorrow, there's going to be a lot of unhappy Met fans if Montero goesn't get Gee's spot. It'd be hard to blame them.
Hey I'm with you but Gee wasn't good last season, looked "okay" this Spring while Montero showed flashes of "wowzas" and yet they went with Gee. They are 2-1 in his starts so in their eyes they likely don't think he's "hurting them" enough to make the switch. That could obviously change going forward. I think his start vs the Braves bought him a few more.
I dont understand this. If Conforto hits like Willingham (2.7 oWAR) and is a 0 WAR defender, how does he become a 3.6 WAR player? 2.7+0 = 2.7.
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"realistic" ceiling is likely a Willingham type offensive player who has a better glove (Willingham was atrocious out there). Willingham offensively during that 7 year run was worth 19.2 oWAR (2.7 per season) but NEGATIVE 6 WAR defensively. If Conforto can be a push defender (0.0) WAR you are looking at roughly 25.2 WAR over 7 seasons or a 3.6 WAR player, and that's if he's simply a PUSH OF and doesn't add some defensive value.
I dont understand this. If Conforto hits like Willingham (2.7 oWAR) and is a 0 WAR defender, how does he become a 3.6 WAR player? 2.7+0 = 2.7.
Willingham was worth NEGATIVE 6 WAR defensively during this time so add 6 to Conforto if he's a push.
Again Dan, you said CEILING. You're just ignoring that point right now. There is a big difference between saying Conforto will OPS like Pence vs. the best he can possibly OPS is Pence with no guarantees whatsoever. That difference is night any day, and I've pointed it out several times, and you just keep coming back with the same conflation.
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isn't a prospect in baseball that is a lock to be as good as Hunter Pence let alone one in A+. That's the difference. I'm 100% confident in saying if the Mets knew for a fact that Conforto would be Hunter Pence 2.0 and could sign that contract today, they would, without a second thought. 3 RF in baseball have been more valuable than Pence since he debuted. You really believe the Mets would be so greedy as to not sign for that?
Again Dan, you said CEILING. You're just ignoring that point right now. There is a big difference between saying Conforto will OPS like Pence vs. the best he can possibly OPS is Pence with no guarantees whatsoever. That difference is night any day, and I've pointed it out several times, and you just keep coming back with the same conflation.
yup. REALISTIC ceiling. Not "absolute best case in the world" but barring something unforseen (most realistically the "experts" betting low on the 20ish homer projections and the defense being better than some think) the realistic ceiling is what I've stated in my opinion. Not ignoring anything at all. David Wright's "best case" was once said to be guys like Travis Fryman. Wright's power went from "15 ish" projection to a 30+ homer guy. Most didn't see that coming. That doesn't mean the realistic ceiling was wrong. Matt Harvey's realistic ceiling was said to be a very good #2 starter, the guy became an animal. He surpassed what was seen to be realistic. The Mets themselves did not expect Matt Harvey to be Matt Harvey.
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In comment 12251558 DanMetroMan said:
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"realistic" ceiling is likely a Willingham type offensive player who has a better glove (Willingham was atrocious out there). Willingham offensively during that 7 year run was worth 19.2 oWAR (2.7 per season) but NEGATIVE 6 WAR defensively. If Conforto can be a push defender (0.0) WAR you are looking at roughly 25.2 WAR over 7 seasons or a 3.6 WAR player, and that's if he's simply a PUSH OF and doesn't add some defensive value.
I dont understand this. If Conforto hits like Willingham (2.7 oWAR) and is a 0 WAR defender, how does he become a 3.6 WAR player? 2.7+0 = 2.7.
Willingham was worth NEGATIVE 6 WAR defensively during this time so add 6 to Conforto if he's a push.
Dan, look at your post closely. Are you saying Willingham was a 2.7 WAR guy, or a 2.7 oWAR guy (your original post said oWAR). If it is 2.7 oWAR, then you dont add back ANOTHER 1 WAR/season for Conforto's defense. With offense and defense, Willingham has been a 2.4 fWAR guy, not 2.7. Not sure how to isolate WAR for just defense (BR does it I think?).
Willingham 2006-2013 was worth -7.4 dWAR, which means if he were merely a push defensive player aka 0 war, he would have been worth 7.4 WAR more than he was.
Year G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR waaWL% 162WL% oWAR dWAR oRAR Salary
2006-2013 1027 4195 131 -11 -4 -24 -46 46 4.5 140 186 18.0 .505 .504 20.5 -7.4 211 28662000
2015: .089/.111/.103
I believe that would be the worst mark ever if it lasted all season.
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In comment 12251574 DanMetroMan said:
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isn't a prospect in baseball that is a lock to be as good as Hunter Pence let alone one in A+. That's the difference. I'm 100% confident in saying if the Mets knew for a fact that Conforto would be Hunter Pence 2.0 and could sign that contract today, they would, without a second thought. 3 RF in baseball have been more valuable than Pence since he debuted. You really believe the Mets would be so greedy as to not sign for that?
Again Dan, you said CEILING. You're just ignoring that point right now. There is a big difference between saying Conforto will OPS like Pence vs. the best he can possibly OPS is Pence with no guarantees whatsoever. That difference is night any day, and I've pointed it out several times, and you just keep coming back with the same conflation.
yup. REALISTIC ceiling. Not "absolute best case in the world" but barring something unforseen (most realistically the "experts" betting low on the 20ish homer projections and the defense being better than some think) the realistic ceiling is what I've stated in my opinion. Not ignoring anything at all. David Wright's "best case" was once said to be guys like Travis Fryman. Wright's power went from "15 ish" projection to a 30+ homer guy. Most didn't see that coming. That doesn't mean the realistic ceiling was wrong. Matt Harvey's realistic ceiling was said to be a very good #2 starter, the guy became an animal. He surpassed what was seen to be realistic. The Mets themselves did not expect Matt Harvey to be Matt Harvey.
When you say "ceiling" of Willingham, do you mean that you except/project Conforto to hit as well as Willingham, or do you mean that Willingham is probably the best Conforto will be barring some really rare breakout? I think that is the hangup. Conforto's absolute ceiling without reason is to be Manny; that's crazy talk of course. But at this point I cant tell if you're using ceiling as a "he's not going to be better than this" evaluation or as a "this is what I think he'll be" evaluation.
Willingham 2006-2013 was worth -7.4 dWAR, which means if he were merely a push defensive player aka 0 war, he would have been worth 7.4 WAR more than he was.
While logic would suggest it works that way, in fact it doesnt. Career JW is 21.9 oWAR and -8.5 dWAR. 21.9-8.5 = 13.4, so we'd expect JW's bWAR to be 13.4, right? What is it in reality? 18.8. There is something screwy with Baseball Reference's o/d WARs. And as a general matter people tend to use fWAR over bWAR (not sure what). Fangraphs seems stingier with wins.
I also wouldnt pencil in Conforto for 0 dWAR defense. His "ceiling" seems to be tolerable defense from what I've read.
That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying "LOL there is NO chance Conforto is a perennial all-star" his bat is probably safer than most and even then, people were NUTS for Ackley's hit tool and he's yet to put it together fully. I like Conforto a lot, a little more tepid/wait and see on Nimmo but I like them both.
Gordon, Yelich, Cespedes, Ackley, deAza (basically a push at 0.2+)
2013 they had 4 in the positive
I believe an "average LF" would be negative dWAR since it is the easy position where teams hide all bat, no glove types (especially in the NL). I dont have the adjustment handy, but lets assume it is in the -.7-1 range (guess), such that a perfectly average LF would be -5 to -7 dWAR over 7 years. Being 0 dWAR as a LF is not a "push" -- it is being pretty good. And from everything we hear, there is no reason to expect Conforto to even be average in LF. He's expected to field the position below average to poorly. So I'd expect that he's -1 dWAR or worse.
I believe an "average LF" would be negative dWAR since it is the easy position where teams hide all bat, no glove types (especially in the NL). I dont have the adjustment handy, but lets assume it is in the -.7-1 range (guess), such that a perfectly average LF would be -5 to -7 dWAR over 7 years. Being 0 dWAR as a LF is not a "push" -- it is being pretty good. And from everything we hear, there is no reason to expect Conforto to even be average in LF. He's expected to field the position below average to poorly. So I'd expect that he's -1 dWAR or worse.
Law actually recently said Conforto has looked surprisingly solid in the OF, better than previously thanks to getting above average jumps. He's obviously never going to be a stud OF defensively.
I just learned that he is renting office space right across the hall from my office. Hope to get a picture with him at some point, but I just feel so weird asking.
Anyway, thought that was kinda cool considering all the Doc talk we had weeks ago.
I just learned that he is renting office space right across the hall from my office. Hope to get a picture with him at some point, but I just feel so weird asking.
Anyway, thought that was kinda cool considering all the Doc talk we had weeks ago.
Very cool. I've seen Darling a few times by my office but far less cool.
Gordon, Yelich, Cespedes, Ackley, deAza (basically a push at 0.2+)
2013 they had 4 in the positive
(Dan this isn't a reply to you directly, just a general FYI for the thread.)
To be clear, the DEF category on Fangraphs is compared to average (so simply being marginally better than a replacement-level defender will not result in a positive value), and "average" in that case is the average value of defense across all positions. LF is viewed as an easy defensive position, so there is a negative positional adjustment, meaning a player with a "0" DEF rating is a good defensive left fielder, and because "0" DEF is average across all positions, a player with "0" DEF will be accumulating defensive WAR.
If this sounds confusing, just remember that DEF is relative to average and WAR is relative to replacement-level, therefore it is entirely possible to have positive dWAR and negative DEF.
Eight of the 13 LFs who show up on the leaderboard (which I've linked below) have positive UZR values in left field. If it sounds weird that only 13 LFs show up, it should - a lot of outfielders spend time at different spots in the OF.
I think a better innings threshold is 500 innings, which will grab players who spend significant amounts of time in LF even if they also play other positions with some regularity. This illustrates the gap between average left field defense and 0 DEF: 14 different players have positive UZR in left field, but only seven have positive DEF, and two of those are at 0.1 and 0.2 (Robbie Grossman and De Aza, respectively). Guys like Brett Gardner and Starling Marte will have positive dWAR and positive values in UZR and DRS but still have a DEF below zero - these guys are plus defenders relative to the population of left fielders, they're just not plus defenders relative to the population of all position players after adjusting for position difficulty.
LF DEF leaderboard 2014 - ( New Window )
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How many players in the minors right now have a realistic ceiling of better than a three to four win a year player? That's a very very high upside for any minor leaguer.
That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying "LOL there is NO chance Conforto is a perennial all-star" his bat is probably safer than most and even then, people were NUTS for Ackley's hit tool and he's yet to put it together fully. I like Conforto a lot, a little more tepid/wait and see on Nimmo but I like them both.
See I think we're all just disagreeing about what a ceiling is. I'd hope that most teams have multiple players with a 3-4 WAR "ceiling" as I define that term. To me a ceiling is what a guy could achieve before I say to myself "shit, I never saw that coming". Pujols surpassed his ceiling. But to me a ceiling is well above what I'd expect a guy to do.
In any event, I'd hope that Conforto's ceiling is over 3 WAR. That's one win over replacement. If there is no way within reason that he could be better than a 3 run player, then it was a dumb pick.
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Unfortunately, it was in the bathroom and that is a no-fly zone for me. Some lines I just don't cross. I was on my way out as he was walking in and I held the door for him. We had a nice moment as we exchanged pleasantries, ha.
I just learned that he is renting office space right across the hall from my office. Hope to get a picture with him at some point, but I just feel so weird asking.
Anyway, thought that was kinda cool considering all the Doc talk we had weeks ago.
Very cool. I've seen Darling a few times by my office but far less cool.
That's funny because I met Darling at a bar once in my home town in Northport. Probably a year or two ago. The funny part is because it was the sh*ttiest dingy bar in town. Good place to hide, I guess. He's a big dude.
I think he's 2 bad outings away thanks to his "solid" start vs. the Braves. Obviously that also is impacted by how good/bad Montero pitches.
Not sure if anyone saw, but Mazzoni was absolutely filthy in AAA for San Deigo and got called up yesterday to the big club. Worth monitoring.
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Gee needs to have a big game tonight. If he gets bombed tonight, I think that may be the end of Gee starting as a Met.
I think he's 2 bad outings away thanks to his "solid" start vs. the Braves. Obviously that also is impacted by how good/bad Montero pitches.
Exactly. If Montero pitches well on top of a Gee bombing I think it would be very difficult to send Montero back down.
So, amputation and cyborg arm replacement?
I immediately hated that pick, I think most people hated the pick immediately, and then he didnt pan out as one would hope. So yes, he's looking like a semi-bust already. That is not Conforto's situation -- he was considered the best college bat in his class, and has met expectations so far.
Hmm, wonder what the backstory to this is...
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DFA salty after paternity leave expired. Ouch.
Hmm, wonder what the backstory to this is...
Listening to Dan le batard in Miami, Saltalamacchia was a Jeffrey Loria handpick.