NFT: Mets Minors 4/27/2015

on Fulmer's velocity

Then really settled down

through five

until the fifth

Since the start of last year: 173 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.96 FIP. Wish the Mets could have uncovered whatever he's found.

could be a Matz kind of project, a highly touted prospect who was derailed by injuries and returns. I remember scouting reports saying he was throwing 93-96 in 2012 with a demeanor similar to Harvey.
http://metsblog.com/metsblog/know-a-pitching-prospect-mets-19-yr-old-rhp-michael-fulmer/ - ( New Window )

if keeps this up will be at Binghamton shortly.

I was a little surprised that they started him at High A after what he did in SS ball last year. Makes sense however if our attitude was "let's see what he does, we can always advance him."

FB and slider are both very good. He can't stay healthy and doesn't have a third workable pitch currently. If both of those things happen he could be a good 3-4 starter, more likely he'll be a reliever if he can stay healthy. Potentially of the late inning variety.

In comment 12250947 Bob in Newburgh said:

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if keeps this up will be at Binghamton shortly. I was a little surprised that they started him at High A after what he did in SS ball last year. Makes sense however if our attitude was "let's see what he does, we can always advance him."

No real advantage to having him skip 2 levels out of the gate. He was good, not great in BK and what's the rush? 4-6 weeks in A+ doesn't impact his timeline. DePo stated the decision was Savannah vs. St. Lucie so even skipping 1 level was seemingly a big decision for them.

In comment 12250839 NyquistX3 said:

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Since the start of last year: 173 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.96 FIP. Wish the Mets could have uncovered whatever he's found.

Quietly showed flashes of this in the minors. I thought he could have been better than Gee, obviously not THIS good though.

Thor
Gorski
Lugo
Gsellman

I see a big rush, not that Conforto is arriving in 2015.

And frankly, I have yet to understand the big deal about Nimmo. May well be a ML OF but the tools do not make your mouth drop open.

In comment 12250963 Bob in Newburgh said:

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I see a big rush, not that Conforto is arriving in 2015. And frankly, I have yet to understand the big deal about Nimmo. May well be a ML OF but the tools do not make your mouth drop open.

Bob,
4-6 weeks doesn't change his timeline. If he heads to AA in the middle of May and mashes then he becomes an option. If Granderson and Cuddyer are healthy they are going to play, just the way it is for now.

In comment 12250963 Bob in Newburgh said:

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I see a big rush, not that Conforto is arriving in 2015. And frankly, I have yet to understand the big deal about Nimmo. May well be a ML OF but the tools do not make your mouth drop open.

Nimmo is mostly about projection. I do agree with you though, to this point he looks like a potential "solid" player but not a difference maker. Hopefully more power comes. I'm feeling very David DeJesus about him currently.

who aren't exceedingly toolsy. If you look at the age 21 seasons, he's not that far off of Yelich. I'd be absolutely thrilled if Nimmo can continue developing into that kind of top of the order guy.

In comment 12250985 Eric on Li said:

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who aren't exceedingly toolsy. If you look at the age 21 seasons, he's not that far off of Yelich. I'd be absolutely thrilled if Nimmo can continue developing into that kind of top of the order guy.

I think you are underselling Yelich here. His hit tool was long considered to be ELITE and his age 21 season included 61 games at a .863 OPS in the minors and then .766 in 62 big league games that same year. Yelich was a career .311 hitter in the minors and at 19 years old put up an .871 OPS with 32 steals, 20 years old .918 OPS.

In comment 12250968 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 12250963 Bob in Newburgh said: Quote: I see a big rush, not that Conforto is arriving in 2015. And frankly, I have yet to understand the big deal about Nimmo. May well be a ML OF but the tools do not make your mouth drop open. Nimmo is mostly about projection. I do agree with you though, to this point he looks like a potential "solid" player but not a difference maker. Hopefully more power comes. I'm feeling very David DeJesus about him currently.

If DeJesus is his floor currently, i would take that in a heartbeat. He can develop power later on. You can do a lot worse than DeJesus.

So i guess Conforto's ceiling is a bit better than Josh Willingham now?

19- .871
20 .918
21 .863

(.883 career in the minors)


Nimmo
19 .778
20 .756
21. 820
22 So far this season .764

Career .783

So Yelich had 50 points on average career (.311 to .268) and 100+ points on OPS.

not really. A realistic ceiling for Conforto is likely still a Willingham type. An above average regular.

Career .823 OPS for Willingham. .847 OPS from his first full season for a 7 year run. If you think Conforto is very likely to surpass that I don't know what to say. Sure he can be better but Josh Willingham could flat hit. Willingham averaged 24 homers, 26 doubles, 2 triples during that span despite averaging 31 games missed.

7 seasons Josh Willingham 125 OPS+, Granderson career OPS+ is 115. Guys in the career 125 range-


Victor Martinez
Don Mattingly
Mike Napoli
Magglio Ordonez
Tim Salmon

What kind of player are we realistically projecting Conforto to be? Better than those guys? Hard to see that. Sure it's possible but yeah, still sticking with a Willingham level offensive player as realistic upside.

career 125 OPS+
Jay Buhner

Puckett... 124

In comment 12251008 DanMetroMan said:

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19- .871 20 .918 21 .863 (.883 career in the minors) Nimmo 19 .778 20 .756 21. 820 22 So far this season .764 Career .783 So Yelich had 50 points on average career (.311 to .268) and 100+ points on OPS.

Yelich has the minor league track record to suggest he's going to hit well in the major league level. He did look terrible against the Mets in the last series but that could have been attributed to his bad back.

Wanting to start another topic, Herrera is raking. I'm getting very excited about Dilson. How many little guys made to the majors who had power? I can think of Uggla but he had a lot of power more than Herrera has ever shown.

guys are really strangely underrated on BBI. Just like that guy on here who claims I "love" Werth for saying he's been a very good MLB player. Willingham was oft injured and a terrible defensive player but when he played he was very, very good offensively. A "Willingham" hitting 5th in this lineup would be fantastic.

In comment 12251008 DanMetroMan said:

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19- .871 20 .918 21 .863 (.883 career in the minors) Nimmo 19 .778 20 .756 21. 820 22 So far this season .764 Career .783 So Yelich had 50 points on average career (.311 to .268) and 100+ points on OPS.

But 50 points on average would add at least 50 points to slugging and 50 points to OBP which accounts for the difference in OPS. Nimmo needs to make more consistent contact if he is going to develop into a #2 hitter which he has the projection for

think Herrera is ever going to "hit for power" per se but he may be able to slug 12-15 per season. Altuve is only 5'7 and while his career high is 7, I don't think it would be crazy to see him hit 10+ in a season. Russell Martin is about 5'9 and has had 15-20 homer seasons.

But if Nimmo could cut the K's a bit and put some more balls in play what about someone like Nick Markakis?

a .311 career minor league hitter suggests a pretty elite hit tool. That gives someone hope that the guy would be at least solid even if the power doesn't come. Yelich has been touted as a "natural" with the bat since the day he was drafted. The question has always been about the power (and if he might move to 1b). Nimmo has always been viewed as a "project". Sucks he never regained his speed because that would have offset the chance he never hits for much power.

In comment 12251039 Mike in NY said:

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But if Nimmo could cut the K's a bit and put some more balls in play what about someone like Nick Markakis?

Markakis like upside seems realistic to me. Markakis was a better offensive player than people realize. It would be great if Nimmo developed into that. First 5 seasons .831 OPS. I'm betting against Nimmo doing that but it's of course possible.

In comment 12251020 DanMetroMan said:

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7 seasons Josh Willingham 125 OPS+, Granderson career OPS+ is 115. Guys in the career 125 range- Victor Martinez Don Mattingly Mike Napoli Magglio Ordonez Tim Salmon What kind of player are we realistically projecting Conforto to be? Better than those guys? Hard to see that. Sure it's possible but yeah, still sticking with a Willingham level offensive player as realistic upside.

You kinda have to look at the bigger picture in that his first 7 full seasons was very good but he pretty much fell off the map after age 33 and he became a full timer at age 27 which is a little late. Hopefully Conforto can have a longer career (and earlier) than that. But for a 17th rounder, the marlins got a steal.

In comment 12251054 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 12251039 Mike in NY said: Quote: But if Nimmo could cut the K's a bit and put some more balls in play what about someone like Nick Markakis? Markakis like upside seems realistic to me. Markakis was a better offensive player than people realize. It would be great if Nimmo developed into that. First 5 seasons .831 OPS. I'm betting against Nimmo doing that but it's of course possible.

Camden Yards helped that OPS

for one would 100% sign for Conforto's first 7 seasons being that good, with Willingham's same trajectory (I'm assuming Conforto will be better than Willingham defensively). Most players are in decline mode by that stage anyway. I mean, not knocking Wright but I don't know that we ever see the "in his prime" David Wright we used to. If Conforto puts up a 7 year run of 125 OPS+ from 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29 and then begins his decline I'll take it. The Mets likely would have had a very nice run.

as an example is simply that. He's underrated across the board in baseball. If you say Conforto's ceiling is Willingham, most people would naturally think that was a swipe before checking the numbers. There are plenty of acclaimed players with similar offensive numbers that would "sound" better.

OPS+ of 119 for Markakis during that time. Averaged 41 doubles 18 homers during that time. Career 119 OPS+'s range for context-

Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Grace, Billy Butler

I'd sign in one second for Nimmo to give the Mets that kind of offense OPS+ wise.

In comment 12251068 ZGiants98 said:

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as an example is simply that. He's underrated across the board in baseball. If you say Conforto's ceiling is Willingham, most people would naturally think that was a swipe before checking the numbers. There are plenty of acclaimed players with similar offensive numbers that would "sound" better.

100% fair. Certain players are underrated for whatever the reason. You hear the name and aren't impressed. I always found Aramis Ramirez to be very strangely underrated in this way.

Ramirez 370 career homers 1348 rbi, 3 time all-star

whats up with the Nationals? They've lost 5 straight and Scherzer is banged up a bit.

Conforto should be a "better Rendon" conveniently leaving defense out of it, and people would be flipping out. lol

still out, Wainright out. Just some things to monitor should they move Gee or Niese.

In comment 12251074 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 12251068 ZGiants98 said: Quote: as an example is simply that. He's underrated across the board in baseball. If you say Conforto's ceiling is Willingham, most people would naturally think that was a swipe before checking the numbers. There are plenty of acclaimed players with similar offensive numbers that would "sound" better. 100% fair. Certain players are underrated for whatever the reason. You hear the name and aren't impressed. I always found Aramis Ramirez to be very strangely underrated in this way.

Yup. And I even remember looking up Willingham when we had this discussion last time and being pretty shocked. lol

is money but his knee issues scare me.

In comment 12251078 DanMetroMan said:

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Ramirez 370 career homers 1348 rbi, 3 time all-star

Very underrated and was overshadowed by a lot of his peers during his prime. He started out young too at age 20 and had a much longer career than ppl would have thought. Not a HOFer but career to be proud of.

like his likely finished or close to it but 18 seasons in the bigs. Very impressive.

up Rendon because he was an advanced college prospect that moved quickly. .287, 21 homeruns, 83 RBI's, .824 OPS sounds a whole lot like Conforto actually speaking offensively of course.

put him on the DL last year.

In comment 12251101 Headhunter said:

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put him on the DL last year.

That sucks for him, back injuries are tricky and potentially chronic.

The Mets have signed free-agent infielder Brooks Conrad and assigned him to Triple-A Las Vegas, according to beat reporter Adam Rubin (April 26).

Conrad, 35, has a career .200 hitter, with a .271 OBP, 19 HR and 73 RBI in 460 major league at-bats.

He is a switch hitter and has mostly played second and third base during his professional career.

�We like what he brings to the table and thinks he�s a good addition to the organization,� a team official told Rubin.

Maybe Muno is staying a bit longer?

In comment 12251099 ZGiants98 said:

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up Rendon because he was an advanced college prospect that moved quickly. .287, 21 homeruns, 83 RBI's, .824 OPS sounds a whole lot like Conforto actually speaking offensively of course.

I didnt realize Rendon was that young (24). He's going to be a pain in the ass for the Mets for years to come. He's probably going to be better which is scary to think about.

the reality is, if you put Smith on back of jersey and didn't let on where he was drafted, you would think to date he was organizational filler type. You put the same jersey on Conforto and don't mention where he was drafted you would see a star in the making based on what he has done this season

He's absolutely a stud if healthy.

Brian P. Mangan ‏@brianpmangan 3m3 minutes ago
Brian P. Mangan
RT @themainemets "Pitchers are starting to avoid pitching to [Conforto], 4 intentional walks over the last 3 games."

That was Guillorme going 0-5 with a K at the top of the order. And Wuilmer's one hit was a poorly-played infield single.

Martires Arias (no relation to Jodi) gave them 7 strong innings allowing only 4 hits and 0 ER, struck out 5. The only guy he had trouble with was the 'Dogs young CF Dustin Fowler who touched Arias for 2 doubles. But Fowler's hot, he's on a 13 game hit streak.

In comment 12251130 sshin05 said:

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Brian P. Mangan ‏@brianpmangan 3m3 minutes ago Brian P. Mangan RT @themainemets "Pitchers are starting to avoid pitching to [Conforto], 4 intentional walks over the last 3 games."

He had 3 in one game, Bonds style.

down on Nimmo at all. He had a very good 2014. He was a unanimous top 5 Mets prospect heading into 2015.

So far in 17 games he is hitting .273 with 2 homeruns and a wRC+ of 124! He's doing fine and it seems like the power is starting to develop.

had me thinking of Ryan Howard. The dude was HOF bound until his injury but his 7 years including his ROY year, he was absolutely disgusting.

Averaged OBP .368, SLG.560, OPS.928, OPS+ 139, homers 41, RBI 123

has been pretty dreadful but he skipped a level and is young for the league. St. Lucie is going to struggle to score runs once Conforto is bumped unless the kiddies (Smith, Urena, Rosario) really start hitting

is moved up to AA middle of May. That sounds about right.

fine is not what you want from the guy picked 1 spot in front of Jose Fernandez, I'm sorry but he has been a disappointment to date. I expected him to dominate at a level and he hasn't, he has been "just fine" not good enough

In comment 12251143 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

down on Nimmo at all. He had a very good 2014. He was a unanimous top 5 Mets prospect heading into 2015. So far in 17 games he is hitting .273 with 2 homeruns and a wRC+ of 124! He's doing fine and it seems like the power is starting to develop.

Not crapping on Nimmo but he sort of HAS TO hit for more power than he has or what's his real value? He's been fine this year but repeating AA you want to see a breakout type of year for a guy you are penciling in as a starting CO.

In comment 12251149 ZGiants98 said:

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is moved up to AA middle of May. That sounds about right.

That's most likely the plan but I'm not unhappy with him being in St. Lucie. Mashing and confidence aren't such a bad thing.

was a raw toolsy guy that we were all expected to be patient with. He's shown a lot of good things, and it seems like he keeps making increment improvements. He's on pace for exactly 19.05 homeruns over a 162 game season as of this moment. Would that be enough power for a huge onbase guy at the top of the order that plays good defense? I think it would be.

you could see in spring training has a great approach and a beautiful swing. I don't care if he never hits more than 20 HR's, he will have a high OBP and drive in tons of runs

the Mets aren't too enthused with Muno's glove work. Still think he can be a Turner type but it's tough to be a "hit only" MI. TJ Rivera is sort of in the same boat. Keeps hitting but glove will decide.

Cecchini & Nimmo IMO

In comment 12251154 Headhunter said:

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fine is not what you want from the guy picked 1 spot in front of Jose Fernandez, I'm sorry but he has been a disappointment to date. I expected him to dominate at a level and he hasn't, he has been "just fine" not good enough

Please. Don't bring up the Fernandez argument. That's ridiculous. Any player that makes it to the majors as a successful player picked in the first round is a fantastic pick period. You cant go back and play revisionist history with every pick.

dont make it to the majors at all.

or do you feel the need to defend everything Mets related as your default mode?

would keep that 124 wRC+ in context however. Look at some of the other top prospects in the EL

Trevor Story 210
Roman Quinn 175
Jagielo 156
Judge 155
Bird 145
Smith Jr. 146

124 is sort of "plugging along". You want to see your "difference making" prospects to stand out.

could still absolutely "break out" but it's fair to suggest if he's "only" this good that he's probably closer to a tweener "solid" player vs. what we hope for. Still time for sure.

In comment 12251183 Headhunter said:

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or do you feel the need to defend everything Mets related as your default mode?

I just dont know what the hell you are talking about. He HAS to dominate every level because he was picked ahead of Fernandez? Come on. He opsed .906 last year in high A ball. He HAS dominated through different periods of his development.

And this isn't some comparison with Conforto who was a polished college bat. They are totally different. I just dont see any reason whatsover to be "down" on Nimmo at this point.

are currently 10th defensively (tied with the Reds). I only bring this up because the Royals have been TWICE as good as the second best defensive team in baseball. WOW.

He had a run last year where he was killing it and then hurt his hand and he stopped killing it. I hope he becomes everything we want him to be

In comment 12251188 DanMetroMan said:

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would keep that 124 wRC+ in context however. Look at some of the other top prospects in the EL Trevor Story 210 Roman Quinn 175 Jagielo 156 Judge 155 Bird 145 Smith Jr. 146 124 is sort of "plugging along". You want to see your "difference making" prospects to stand out.

Sure. But its still good. He was at 165 in St. Lucie last year before getting called up to Bing.

let's reverse it, what has Nimmo shown to date that should get me excited other than his potential? You do know that potential means " hasn't done it yet"

cant really be judged directly. He seems to be improving. This year will tell a lot but in only a little over 2 weeks I wouldn't say he's playing poorly or anything. I just dont see why anyone would be down on him.

article from saturday
link - ( New Window )

In comment 12251208 Headhunter said:

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let's reverse it, what has Nimmo shown to date that should get me excited other than his potential? You do know that potential means " hasn't done it yet"

He's shown an extremely patient eye and approach. The guy is an onbase machine. He's also shown periods where he gets RAGING hot with the bat so we know he has it in him. He's shown an increase in power albeit slowly. He's not slow and he plays good defense. Whats NOT to be excited about?

Conforto excites me, waiting for Nimmo to break out. Im in no rush, if it's there, it eventually has to come out

once I think we are all basically in agreement here for the most part. He's been "fine", or even "solid" but we would like to see him do more before getting "excited".

In comment 12251228 DanMetroMan said:

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once I think we are all basically in agreement here for the most part. He's been "fine", or even "solid" but we would like to see him do more before getting "excited".

Its probably why I would sign up for DeJesus-comp right now.

Nimmo doesn't end up a STAR like Conforto seems to be shaping up as, but a solid all around player at the top of the order who can get on base would still be a homerun of a 1st round pick.

In comment 12251228 DanMetroMan said:

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once I think we are all basically in agreement here for the most part. He's been "fine", or even "solid" but we would like to see him do more before getting "excited".

Yeah. That's where Im at. I absolutely think he is still improving though and has "untapped potential". He's shown what he's capable of for stretches already. He's young. I'm still high on him. If he has a very poor 2015 I might change my tune but we aren't close to that yet.

is the organization believes in him

all of the first round picks this year. Big years for all of them. Cechinni seems to be breaking out a little early as well.

In comment 12251166 Headhunter said:

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you could see in spring training has a great approach and a beautiful swing. I don't care if he never hits more than 20 HR's, he will have a high OBP and drive in tons of runs

I think that's the thing g missing with Nimmo. Everyone wants something exciting from him. We'd accept Conforto to put up very good numbers. But For Nimmo people find it unacceptable if he can't hit 20 HRs. Nothing wrong with a very well rounded ball player who does everything g well, rather than one or two things exceptionally well. They can't all be all stars

In comment 12251109 sshin05 said:

Quote:

In comment 12251101 Headhunter said: Quote: put him on the DL last year. That sucks for him, back injuries are tricky and potentially chronic.

I'm devastated seeing Yelich still hurting. By far my favorite non met. As you could see by his swing so far this year, this is likely a game changer to his career.

a little lost in the Yankee series was some great performances by these two. I'm pumped to see more of Robles in the upcoming series and I have to hand it to Goedell too. Maybe he has really started figuring it out. Both have pretty good stuff.

Conforto in LF Larares in CF Nimmo in RF Wright 3b Flores SS Herrera 2b Duda 1b d'Arnaud/Plawecki C
Harvey Wheeler deGrom Matz Thor
Familia Robles Blevins Leathersich Morris Montero A Torres
Reynolds utilityman

in late 2016 being the core of a 3-5 year run. You can add a couple of bench players

In comment 12251290 Headhunter said:

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Conforto in LF Larares in CF Nimmo in RF Wright 3b Flores SS Herrera 2b Duda 1b d'Arnaud/Plawecki C Harvey Wheeler deGrom Matz Thor Familia Robles Blevins Leathersich Morris Montero A Torres Reynolds utilityman in late 2016 being the core of a 3-5 year run. You can add a couple of bench players

Looks about right. ;) And almost all partially developed in-house. Pretty rare in today's game.

like Robles to emerge in the worst way right about now.

Era adjusted? It makes a difference. If you told me right now that Conforto would stay healthy and would 800 OPS every year based on the current state of the game, I'd take it. I'd be thrilled. There were only 22 qualified 800+ guys in the NL last season

So Willingham as a 825-850 guy plays as a very good middle of the order bat. But of course, when Willingham was putting up those numbers the league average OPS was better. Willingham's 2007 852 OPS was good for only 121 OPS+ (also his career OPS+). 852 OPS last season (M. Kemp) was good for 139 OPS+. 139 OPS+ for Conforto would be GREAT.

Would I be happy with a "relative" Willingham career for Conforto? I.e. a 120 OPS+? That's about equal to 2014 Hunter Pence -- 777 OPS. Im not doing jumping jacks over that kind of production. Very valuable, but not a great "ceiling" for the best college bat in a draft class.

I think this is the problem people have with the Willingham comparison. Willingham during his prime was not a special bat, but the same production (not normalized for this era of pitching dominance) would be fantastic right now.

In comment 12251392 Deej said:

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Era adjusted? It makes a difference. If you told me right now that Conforto would stay healthy and would 800 OPS every year based on the current state of the game, I'd take it. I'd be thrilled. There were only 22 qualified 800+ guys in the NL last season So Willingham as a 825-850 guy plays as a very good middle of the order bat. But of course, when Willingham was putting up those numbers the league average OPS was better. Willingham's 2007 852 OPS was good for only 121 OPS+ (also his career OPS+). 852 OPS last season (M. Kemp) was good for 139 OPS+. 139 OPS+ for Conforto would be GREAT. Would I be happy with a "relative" Willingham career for Conforto? I.e. a 120 OPS+? That's about equal to 2014 Hunter Pence -- 777 OPS. Im not doing jumping jacks over that kind of production. Very valuable, but not a great "ceiling" for the best college bat in a draft class. I think this is the problem people have with the Willingham comparison. Willingham during his prime was not a special bat, but the same production (not normalized for this era of pitching dominance) would be fantastic right now.

Hunter Pence is a 90 million dollar man, and Willingham in his prime (a 7 year run) was a 125 OPS+ hitter. I'd be extremely happy if Conforto were Hunter Pence. If the Mets have Pence in RF over Granderson (and everyone were healthy) I think we'd have one of the best lineups in baseball.

Lagares
Murphy
Wright
Duda
Pence
Cuddyer
TDA
Flores

Looks damn good to me (ignore the order if you want).

In comment 12251020 DanMetroMan said:

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7 seasons Josh Willingham 125 OPS+, Granderson career OPS+ is 115. Guys in the career 125 range- Victor Martinez Don Mattingly Mike Napoli Magglio Ordonez Tim Salmon What kind of player are we realistically projecting Conforto to be? Better than those guys? Hard to see that. Sure it's possible but yeah, still sticking with a Willingham level offensive player as realistic upside.

DMM: there are real problems to comparing peak + to career +, especially for guys who broke down but didnt retire like Mattingly and Magglio. Comparing catchers and SS (Tulo) to corner OF production is also a real problem. Willingham's bat in an average defending SS/C body is 10x all star production; in a corner OF it is 0x.

Chris Archer of the Rays? He's been lights out this season. Harvey-esque.

In comment 12251399 DanMetroMan said:

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Hunter Pence is a 90 million dollar man, and Willingham in his prime (a 7 year run) was a 125 OPS+ hitter. I'd be extremely happy if Conforto were Hunter Pence. If the Mets have Pence in RF over Granderson (and everyone were healthy) I think we'd have one of the best lineups in baseball.

I'd probably be pretty happy too. But two things -- (1) Pence brings a lot of non-OPS value to the table (steals, leadership). And (2) I wouldnt be happy if you told me that Conforto's ceiling is Pence-like hitting (sans steals). Conforto is developing reasonably well; if you're telling me that the #10 pick cant do better than 777 OPS as a relatively limited-athlete corner OF, then it was a bad pick. There HAS to be some more upside in there than that.

In comment 12251420 Deej said:

Quote:

In comment 12251020 DanMetroMan said: Quote: 7 seasons Josh Willingham 125 OPS+, Granderson career OPS+ is 115. Guys in the career 125 range- Victor Martinez Don Mattingly Mike Napoli Magglio Ordonez Tim Salmon What kind of player are we realistically projecting Conforto to be? Better than those guys? Hard to see that. Sure it's possible but yeah, still sticking with a Willingham level offensive player as realistic upside. DMM: there are real problems to comparing peak + to career +, especially for guys who broke down but didnt retire like Mattingly and Magglio. Comparing catchers and SS (Tulo) to corner OF production is also a real problem. Willingham's bat in an average defending SS/C body is 10x all star production; in a corner OF it is 0x.

I don't think anybody believes Josh Willingham was close to the player Don Mattingly was. That wasn't my suggestion. My point was in his prime Josh Willingham was a very good offensive player. His 125 OPS+ vs. Granderson and his 118 mark in his prime, or Cuddyer and his career 114 mark etc etc. I really think you are underrating how good a 125 OPS+ for 7 seasons is.

for his career has 3 total seasons besting Willingham's "prime" seasons, and for his career has been an inferior offensive player (119 OPS+)

Werth from 2007-2014 OPS+ of 128. You don't think the Mets would celebrate Conforto being as good as Werth, a player who received 127 million dollars as a FA thanks to his prime years in Philly? I know I'd be really, really happy with Werth 2.0.

if Conforto is Willingham with 10-15 steals does it change things for you? Pence has averaged 13 steals per season for his career, Murphy has averaged 9 for comparison.

Mets lead the league in overall baserunning. Not exactly sure what Tom Goodwin does differently but the guy is a beast.

In comment 12251004 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 12250985 Eric on Li said: Quote: who aren't exceedingly toolsy. If you look at the age 21 seasons, he's not that far off of Yelich. I'd be absolutely thrilled if Nimmo can continue developing into that kind of top of the order guy. I think you are underselling Yelich here. His hit tool was long considered to be ELITE and his age 21 season included 61 games at a .863 OPS in the minors and then .766 in 62 big league games that same year. Yelich was a career .311 hitter in the minors and at 19 years old put up an .871 OPS with 32 steals, 20 years old .918 OPS.

Late response, but I completely agree with you. I was more pointing out that you don't need to have massive power or be a McCutchen-level athlete to still be an impact player. I'd be thrilled if Nimmo's development surges and he becomes a Yelich level player but I'm not expecting it. Dejesus is a pretty solid comp, though I think Nimmo will hopefully walk a little bit more than he did.

is pretty "boring" but he still has a career 107 OPS+ and has been league average or better in terms of fWAR, 7 times. Obviously I'd like Nimmo to be better than that but just for comparisons sake Cuddyer has been league average or better 5 times.

to see Montero's start


We haven't "had to" deal with this in a while but player development at the big league level will have to take a back seat to winning (which I agree with unless it's messing with a players overall development). I just don't think it makes sense to "speed up" expectations on guys because they aren't ready to be really good for the 2015 Mets. Guys like Wheeler and Harvey had the luxury of being on bad teams. Montero is under the gun because we have expectations this year but if this were 2013 or 2014 would anybody be ready to pull the plug on him? The baseline needs to be "as good as Gee or Niese" at minimum. They obviously can't "give away" games but again... we are talking about 8 total starts. He still missed bats, to me that's a major positive vs. say 42 innings with a low era but 23 k's. Even looking at his game log...I think people would be surprised what they see
Link - ( New Window )

In comment 12251494 DanMetroMan said:

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is pretty "boring" but he still has a career 107 OPS+ and has been league average or better in terms of fWAR, 7 times. Obviously I'd like Nimmo to be better than that but just for comparisons sake Cuddyer has been league average or better 5 times.

He had 3 or 4 excellent seasons where he was the Royals best player when they were terrible. If he'd played those years on the Red Sox he would have been an all star.

In comment 12251441 DanMetroMan said:

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I don't think anybody believes Josh Willingham was close to the player Don Mattingly was. That wasn't my suggestion. My point was in his prime Josh Willingham was a very good offensive player. His 125 OPS+ vs. Granderson and his 118 mark in his prime, or Cuddyer and his career 114 mark etc etc. I really think you are underrating how good a 125 OPS+ for 7 seasons is.

I guess I just dont see what your point is in posting Mattingly as a 125/Magglio as 125+ guys. Seems to me to be a suggestion that Willingham's peak should be compared to their careers. But they were broken guys. DM had 4 amazing 146-161+ seasons. Then he had 4000 ABs after he hurt his back, and was somewhere in the neighborhood of bad to average production at 1B. What's your point??

Re your questions about Werth/Pence -- you're conflating ceiling with actualization. You said that Conforto's CEILING is Willingham. There is a big difference between CEILING and what a guy actually hits. If you told me that Conforto would 100% turn into Pence, I'd take it. If you told me that Conforto would 10% be Pence, and 90% be worse than Pence, I'd be disappointed. Please acknowledge the difference.

"realistic" ceiling is likely a Willingham type offensive player who has a better glove (Willingham was atrocious out there). Willingham offensively during that 7 year run was worth 19.2 oWAR (2.7 per season) but NEGATIVE 6 WAR defensively. If Conforto can be a push defender (0.0) WAR you are looking at roughly 25.2 WAR over 7 seasons or a 3.6 WAR player, and that's if he's simply a PUSH OF and doesn't add some defensive value.

WAR would rank Conforto the 6th most valuable LF in baseball in 2014 tied with Nelson Cruz. I don't think calling his realistic upside "that" is really that crazy at all.

In comment 12251502 DanMetroMan said:

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to see Montero's start We haven't "had to" deal with this in a while but player development at the big league level will have to take a back seat to winning (which I agree with unless it's messing with a players overall development). I just don't think it makes sense to "speed up" expectations on guys because they aren't ready to be really good for the 2015 Mets. Guys like Wheeler and Harvey had the luxury of being on bad teams. Montero is under the gun because we have expectations this year but if this were 2013 or 2014 would anybody be ready to pull the plug on him? The baseline needs to be "as good as Gee or Niese" at minimum. They obviously can't "give away" games but again... we are talking about 8 total starts. He still missed bats, to me that's a major positive vs. say 42 innings with a low era but 23 k's. Even looking at his game log...I think people would be surprised what they see Link - ( New Window )

This would be a concern if the marginal starter was actually good. So if our 5th guy was Bartolo, and Matz/Thor were absolutely ready, it would be an interesting debate. But Gee was a 0.4 fWAR, 4.52 FIP guy last season, and a 4.41 FIP guy this year. So long as Montero isnt consistently getting blown off the mound, I dont think it's a massive risk to give him some starts over Gee. I would 100% give RM a shot in this window before Thor & Matz force their way up here. And if not, trade him. Letting a guy like Montero default into a permanent RP regardless of talent is an absolutely waste.

isn't a prospect in baseball that is a lock to be as good as Hunter Pence let alone one in A+. That's the difference. I'm 100% confident in saying if the Mets knew for a fact that Conforto would be Hunter Pence 2.0 and could sign that contract today, they would, without a second thought. 3 RF in baseball have been more valuable than Pence since he debuted. You really believe the Mets would be so greedy as to not sign for that?

totally for Montero over Gee but they picked Gee over Montero despite Montero's excellent spring. I just don't think they believe Gee can help at all out of the pen. Terry called him "awkward" out there.

Zobrist, Werth, Bautista, Pence top 4 RF in baseball by fWAR. Just talking offensively Pence is 5th (Beltran 4th)

In comment 12251577 DanMetroMan said:

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totally for Montero over Gee but they picked Gee over Montero despite Montero's excellent spring. I just don't think they believe Gee can help at all out of the pen. Terry called him "awkward" out there.

If he has another bad start tonight and Montero looks good tomorrow, there's going to be a lot of unhappy Met fans if Montero goesn't get Gee's spot. It'd be hard to blame them.

In comment 12251582 Metnut said:

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In comment 12251577 DanMetroMan said: Quote: totally for Montero over Gee but they picked Gee over Montero despite Montero's excellent spring. I just don't think they believe Gee can help at all out of the pen. Terry called him "awkward" out there. If he has another bad start tonight and Montero looks good tomorrow, there's going to be a lot of unhappy Met fans if Montero goesn't get Gee's spot. It'd be hard to blame them.

Hey I'm with you but Gee wasn't good last season, looked "okay" this Spring while Montero showed flashes of "wowzas" and yet they went with Gee. They are 2-1 in his starts so in their eyes they likely don't think he's "hurting them" enough to make the switch. That could obviously change going forward. I think his start vs the Braves bought him a few more.

In comment 12251558 DanMetroMan said:

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"realistic" ceiling is likely a Willingham type offensive player who has a better glove (Willingham was atrocious out there). Willingham offensively during that 7 year run was worth 19.2 oWAR (2.7 per season) but NEGATIVE 6 WAR defensively. If Conforto can be a push defender (0.0) WAR you are looking at roughly 25.2 WAR over 7 seasons or a 3.6 WAR player, and that's if he's simply a PUSH OF and doesn't add some defensive value.

I dont understand this. If Conforto hits like Willingham (2.7 oWAR) and is a 0 WAR defender, how does he become a 3.6 WAR player? 2.7+0 = 2.7.

In comment 12251589 Deej said:

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In comment 12251558 DanMetroMan said: Quote: "realistic" ceiling is likely a Willingham type offensive player who has a better glove (Willingham was atrocious out there). Willingham offensively during that 7 year run was worth 19.2 oWAR (2.7 per season) but NEGATIVE 6 WAR defensively. If Conforto can be a push defender (0.0) WAR you are looking at roughly 25.2 WAR over 7 seasons or a 3.6 WAR player, and that's if he's simply a PUSH OF and doesn't add some defensive value. I dont understand this. If Conforto hits like Willingham (2.7 oWAR) and is a 0 WAR defender, how does he become a 3.6 WAR player? 2.7+0 = 2.7.

Willingham was worth NEGATIVE 6 WAR defensively during this time so add 6 to Conforto if he's a push.

In comment 12251574 DanMetroMan said:

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isn't a prospect in baseball that is a lock to be as good as Hunter Pence let alone one in A+. That's the difference. I'm 100% confident in saying if the Mets knew for a fact that Conforto would be Hunter Pence 2.0 and could sign that contract today, they would, without a second thought. 3 RF in baseball have been more valuable than Pence since he debuted. You really believe the Mets would be so greedy as to not sign for that?

Again Dan, you said CEILING. You're just ignoring that point right now. There is a big difference between saying Conforto will OPS like Pence vs. the best he can possibly OPS is Pence with no guarantees whatsoever. That difference is night any day, and I've pointed it out several times, and you just keep coming back with the same conflation.

Willingham -6.0 dWAR during his "7 year" run. So he was worth negative 6 "wins", if Conforto is a push defender with Willingham's bat, that's Willingham "plus 6". Or nearly a full win more valuable per season.

In comment 12251597 Deej said:

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In comment 12251574 DanMetroMan said: Quote: isn't a prospect in baseball that is a lock to be as good as Hunter Pence let alone one in A+. That's the difference. I'm 100% confident in saying if the Mets knew for a fact that Conforto would be Hunter Pence 2.0 and could sign that contract today, they would, without a second thought. 3 RF in baseball have been more valuable than Pence since he debuted. You really believe the Mets would be so greedy as to not sign for that? Again Dan, you said CEILING. You're just ignoring that point right now. There is a big difference between saying Conforto will OPS like Pence vs. the best he can possibly OPS is Pence with no guarantees whatsoever. That difference is night any day, and I've pointed it out several times, and you just keep coming back with the same conflation.

yup. REALISTIC ceiling. Not "absolute best case in the world" but barring something unforseen (most realistically the "experts" betting low on the 20ish homer projections and the defense being better than some think) the realistic ceiling is what I've stated in my opinion. Not ignoring anything at all. David Wright's "best case" was once said to be guys like Travis Fryman. Wright's power went from "15 ish" projection to a 30+ homer guy. Most didn't see that coming. That doesn't mean the realistic ceiling was wrong. Matt Harvey's realistic ceiling was said to be a very good #2 starter, the guy became an animal. He surpassed what was seen to be realistic. The Mets themselves did not expect Matt Harvey to be Matt Harvey.

betting against Conforto being Matt Holliday 2.0. Of course it's possible. It's very unlikely but possible.

did I say "The best he can possibly be is..." absolutely nowhere. That's misquoting me 100%. Albert Pujols wasn't expected to be a 1st ballot HOFer when he was in the minors.

In comment 12251596 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 12251589 Deej said: Quote: In comment 12251558 DanMetroMan said: Quote: "realistic" ceiling is likely a Willingham type offensive player who has a better glove (Willingham was atrocious out there). Willingham offensively during that 7 year run was worth 19.2 oWAR (2.7 per season) but NEGATIVE 6 WAR defensively. If Conforto can be a push defender (0.0) WAR you are looking at roughly 25.2 WAR over 7 seasons or a 3.6 WAR player, and that's if he's simply a PUSH OF and doesn't add some defensive value. I dont understand this. If Conforto hits like Willingham (2.7 oWAR) and is a 0 WAR defender, how does he become a 3.6 WAR player? 2.7+0 = 2.7. Willingham was worth NEGATIVE 6 WAR defensively during this time so add 6 to Conforto if he's a push.

Dan, look at your post closely. Are you saying Willingham was a 2.7 WAR guy, or a 2.7 oWAR guy (your original post said oWAR). If it is 2.7 oWAR, then you dont add back ANOTHER 1 WAR/season for Conforto's defense. With offense and defense, Willingham has been a 2.4 fWAR guy, not 2.7. Not sure how to isolate WAR for just defense (BR does it I think?).

has oWAR and bWAR

Willingham 2006-2013 was worth -7.4 dWAR, which means if he were merely a push defensive player aka 0 war, he would have been worth 7.4 WAR more than he was.


Year G PA Rbat Rbaser Rdp Rfield Rpos RAA WAA Rrep RAR WAR waaWL% 162WL% oWAR dWAR oRAR Salary
2006-2013 1027 4195 131 -11 -4 -24 -46 46 4.5 140 186 18.0 .505 .504 20.5 -7.4 211 28662000

offensively during that time (I included 2013 because he actually was good through 2013, not 2012) he was worth 20.5 oWAR. So again, if his defensive didn't pull down his value he would have been worth 27.9 WAR during that stretch. He absolutely SUCKED defensively (being a former catcher playing LF will do that). During that stretch (again 2.6 because I included 2013) on average (128 games no less since he was oft injured) but NEGATIVE 0.9 WAR defensively. So he lost 1 win per season in his prime thanks to his glove.

pitchers hitting this season


2015: .089/.111/.103


I believe that would be the worst mark ever if it lasted all season.

In comment 12251602 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 12251597 Deej said: Quote: In comment 12251574 DanMetroMan said: Quote: isn't a prospect in baseball that is a lock to be as good as Hunter Pence let alone one in A+. That's the difference. I'm 100% confident in saying if the Mets knew for a fact that Conforto would be Hunter Pence 2.0 and could sign that contract today, they would, without a second thought. 3 RF in baseball have been more valuable than Pence since he debuted. You really believe the Mets would be so greedy as to not sign for that? Again Dan, you said CEILING. You're just ignoring that point right now. There is a big difference between saying Conforto will OPS like Pence vs. the best he can possibly OPS is Pence with no guarantees whatsoever. That difference is night any day, and I've pointed it out several times, and you just keep coming back with the same conflation. yup. REALISTIC ceiling. Not "absolute best case in the world" but barring something unforseen (most realistically the "experts" betting low on the 20ish homer projections and the defense being better than some think) the realistic ceiling is what I've stated in my opinion. Not ignoring anything at all. David Wright's "best case" was once said to be guys like Travis Fryman. Wright's power went from "15 ish" projection to a 30+ homer guy. Most didn't see that coming. That doesn't mean the realistic ceiling was wrong. Matt Harvey's realistic ceiling was said to be a very good #2 starter, the guy became an animal. He surpassed what was seen to be realistic. The Mets themselves did not expect Matt Harvey to be Matt Harvey.

When you say "ceiling" of Willingham, do you mean that you except/project Conforto to hit as well as Willingham, or do you mean that Willingham is probably the best Conforto will be barring some really rare breakout? I think that is the hangup. Conforto's absolute ceiling without reason is to be Manny; that's crazy talk of course. But at this point I cant tell if you're using ceiling as a "he's not going to be better than this" evaluation or as a "this is what I think he'll be" evaluation.

How many players in the minors right now have a realistic ceiling of better than a three to four win a year player? That's a very very high upside for any minor leaguer.

like Harvey, like Wright (like many who came before him) could surpass "realistic" expectations and be a ridiculous monster superstar. He could in fact be Matt Holliday. But more realistically I believe offensively his upside is Willingham-esque and a 3+ WAR starting corner OF. I use the term "realistic ceiling" to mean as of right now if things go the way one would expect, regular development, skills/tools on par with what scouts think, then that's what I would expect on the optimistic/realistic side. The "realistic" upside is one of the best CO in baseball, downside (like with any prospect) is an Andrew Brown-esque tweener.

In comment 12251619 DanMetroMan said:

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has oWAR and bWAR Willingham 2006-2013 was worth -7.4 dWAR, which means if he were merely a push defensive player aka 0 war, he would have been worth 7.4 WAR more than he was.

While logic would suggest it works that way, in fact it doesnt. Career JW is 21.9 oWAR and -8.5 dWAR. 21.9-8.5 = 13.4, so we'd expect JW's bWAR to be 13.4, right? What is it in reality? 18.8. There is something screwy with Baseball Reference's o/d WARs. And as a general matter people tend to use fWAR over bWAR (not sure what). Fangraphs seems stingier with wins.

I also wouldnt pencil in Conforto for 0 dWAR defense. His "ceiling" seems to be tolerable defense from what I've read.

In comment 12251636 Gary from The East End said:

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How many players in the minors right now have a realistic ceiling of better than a three to four win a year player? That's a very very high upside for any minor leaguer.

That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying "LOL there is NO chance Conforto is a perennial all-star" his bat is probably safer than most and even then, people were NUTS for Ackley's hit tool and he's yet to put it together fully. I like Conforto a lot, a little more tepid/wait and see on Nimmo but I like them both.

a push defender would actually be a very "tolerable" one. David Wright has a career 2.4 dWAR and a negative dWAR 5 times so I'd say a push defender would be a pretty solid outcome for Conforto. Cuddyer (admittedly a poor defender) -15.6 career.

career -10 dWAR, Pence -4.4. I think giving Conforto a "push" aka 0 defense is actually being kind but it's certainly possible.

can't find a full list of LF dWAR anywhere on BR but overall defense on fangraphs has 5 total LF in baseball in 2014 being average or better defensively

Gordon, Yelich, Cespedes, Ackley, deAza (basically a push at 0.2+)

2013 they had 4 in the positive

Thus David Ortiz, who rarely plays the field, is consistently about -1.3 dWAR since he adds no value with his glove.

I believe an "average LF" would be negative dWAR since it is the easy position where teams hide all bat, no glove types (especially in the NL). I dont have the adjustment handy, but lets assume it is in the -.7-1 range (guess), such that a perfectly average LF would be -5 to -7 dWAR over 7 years. Being 0 dWAR as a LF is not a "push" -- it is being pretty good. And from everything we hear, there is no reason to expect Conforto to even be average in LF. He's expected to field the position below average to poorly. So I'd expect that he's -1 dWAR or worse.

In comment 12251675 Deej said:

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Thus David Ortiz, who rarely plays the field, is consistently about -1.3 dWAR since he adds no value with his glove. I believe an "average LF" would be negative dWAR since it is the easy position where teams hide all bat, no glove types (especially in the NL). I dont have the adjustment handy, but lets assume it is in the -.7-1 range (guess), such that a perfectly average LF would be -5 to -7 dWAR over 7 years. Being 0 dWAR as a LF is not a "push" -- it is being pretty good. And from everything we hear, there is no reason to expect Conforto to even be average in LF. He's expected to field the position below average to poorly. So I'd expect that he's -1 dWAR or worse.

Law actually recently said Conforto has looked surprisingly solid in the OF, better than previously thanks to getting above average jumps. He's obviously never going to be a stud OF defensively.

added to the Gnats roster.

Unfortunately, it was in the bathroom and that is a no-fly zone for me. Some lines I just don't cross. I was on my way out as he was walking in and I held the door for him. We had a nice moment as we exchanged pleasantries, ha.

I just learned that he is renting office space right across the hall from my office. Hope to get a picture with him at some point, but I just feel so weird asking.

Anyway, thought that was kinda cool considering all the Doc talk we had weeks ago.

In comment 12251691 PhiPsi125 said:

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Unfortunately, it was in the bathroom and that is a no-fly zone for me. Some lines I just don't cross. I was on my way out as he was walking in and I held the door for him. We had a nice moment as we exchanged pleasantries, ha. I just learned that he is renting office space right across the hall from my office. Hope to get a picture with him at some point, but I just feel so weird asking. Anyway, thought that was kinda cool considering all the Doc talk we had weeks ago.

Very cool. I've seen Darling a few times by my office but far less cool.

In comment 12251669 DanMetroMan said:

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can't find a full list of LF dWAR anywhere on BR but overall defense on fangraphs has 5 total LF in baseball in 2014 being average or better defensively Gordon, Yelich, Cespedes, Ackley, deAza (basically a push at 0.2+) 2013 they had 4 in the positive

(Dan this isn't a reply to you directly, just a general FYI for the thread.)

To be clear, the DEF category on Fangraphs is compared to average (so simply being marginally better than a replacement-level defender will not result in a positive value), and "average" in that case is the average value of defense across all positions. LF is viewed as an easy defensive position, so there is a negative positional adjustment, meaning a player with a "0" DEF rating is a good defensive left fielder, and because "0" DEF is average across all positions, a player with "0" DEF will be accumulating defensive WAR.

If this sounds confusing, just remember that DEF is relative to average and WAR is relative to replacement-level, therefore it is entirely possible to have positive dWAR and negative DEF.

Eight of the 13 LFs who show up on the leaderboard (which I've linked below) have positive UZR values in left field. If it sounds weird that only 13 LFs show up, it should - a lot of outfielders spend time at different spots in the OF.

I think a better innings threshold is 500 innings, which will grab players who spend significant amounts of time in LF even if they also play other positions with some regularity. This illustrates the gap between average left field defense and 0 DEF: 14 different players have positive UZR in left field, but only seven have positive DEF, and two of those are at 0.1 and 0.2 (Robbie Grossman and De Aza, respectively). Guys like Brett Gardner and Starling Marte will have positive dWAR and positive values in UZR and DRS but still have a DEF below zero - these guys are plus defenders relative to the population of left fielders, they're just not plus defenders relative to the population of all position players after adjusting for position difficulty.
LF DEF leaderboard 2014 - ( New Window )

In comment 12251647 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 12251636 Gary from The East End said: Quote: How many players in the minors right now have a realistic ceiling of better than a three to four win a year player? That's a very very high upside for any minor leaguer. That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying "LOL there is NO chance Conforto is a perennial all-star" his bat is probably safer than most and even then, people were NUTS for Ackley's hit tool and he's yet to put it together fully. I like Conforto a lot, a little more tepid/wait and see on Nimmo but I like them both.

See I think we're all just disagreeing about what a ceiling is. I'd hope that most teams have multiple players with a 3-4 WAR "ceiling" as I define that term. To me a ceiling is what a guy could achieve before I say to myself "shit, I never saw that coming". Pujols surpassed his ceiling. But to me a ceiling is well above what I'd expect a guy to do.

In any event, I'd hope that Conforto's ceiling is over 3 WAR. That's one win over replacement. If there is no way within reason that he could be better than a 3 run player, then it was a dumb pick.

Cecchini was a high pick and I'd say there is a close to 0% chance he's better than a 3 WAR SS considering 3 SS in baseball were worth 4 WAR or more. In fact, I'm willing to suggest the odds are close to 0.

In comment 12251699 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 12251691 PhiPsi125 said: Quote: Unfortunately, it was in the bathroom and that is a no-fly zone for me. Some lines I just don't cross. I was on my way out as he was walking in and I held the door for him. We had a nice moment as we exchanged pleasantries, ha. I just learned that he is renting office space right across the hall from my office. Hope to get a picture with him at some point, but I just feel so weird asking. Anyway, thought that was kinda cool considering all the Doc talk we had weeks ago. Very cool. I've seen Darling a few times by my office but far less cool.

That's funny because I met Darling at a bar once in my home town in Northport. Probably a year or two ago. The funny part is because it was the sh*ttiest dingy bar in town. Good place to hide, I guess. He's a big dude.

was just going to say that Darling is shockingly huge. He's listed at 6'3 190, I'm guessing he's closer to 230-240 at this point. He's big. Wasn't overly friendly either if I'm being honest.

Ceciliani 8 extra base hits in 41 AB's yet "nobody cares" because... well PCL/LV #mets

Gee needs to have a big game tonight. If he gets bombed tonight, I think that may be the end of Gee starting as a Met.

In comment 12251757 ZGiants98 said:

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Gee needs to have a big game tonight. If he gets bombed tonight, I think that may be the end of Gee starting as a Met.

I think he's 2 bad outings away thanks to his "solid" start vs. the Braves. Obviously that also is impacted by how good/bad Montero pitches.

he in the very least gives us a little depth in the event injuries strike, sort of MDD light.

Not sure if anyone saw, but Mazzoni was absolutely filthy in AAA for San Deigo and got called up yesterday to the big club. Worth monitoring.

In comment 12251759 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 12251757 ZGiants98 said: Quote: Gee needs to have a big game tonight. If he gets bombed tonight, I think that may be the end of Gee starting as a Met. I think he's 2 bad outings away thanks to his "solid" start vs. the Braves. Obviously that also is impacted by how good/bad Montero pitches.

Exactly. If Montero pitches well on top of a Gee bombing I think it would be very difficult to send Montero back down.

but he has been very good in Vegas so far as well.

dream big and Gee becomes Clippard 2.0! wooo

In comment 12251788 DanMetroMan said:

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dream big and Gee becomes Clippard 2.0! wooo

So, amputation and cyborg arm replacement?

8.1 innings, 13 ks, 1 BB, 1.02 FIP.

In comment 12251709 DanMetroMan said:

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Cecchini was a high pick and I'd say there is a close to 0% chance he's better than a 3 WAR SS considering 3 SS in baseball were worth 4 WAR or more. In fact, I'm willing to suggest the odds are close to 0.

I immediately hated that pick, I think most people hated the pick immediately, and then he didnt pan out as one would hope. So yes, he's looking like a semi-bust already. That is not Conforto's situation -- he was considered the best college bat in his class, and has met expectations so far.

DFA salty after paternity leave expired. Ouch.

Keith Law had Cechinni going exactly at the pick he did.

In comment 12251807 sshin05 said:

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DFA salty after paternity leave expired. Ouch.

Hmm, wonder what the backstory to this is...

In comment 12251989 Shecky said:

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In comment 12251807 sshin05 said: Quote: DFA salty after paternity leave expired. Ouch. Hmm, wonder what the backstory to this is...

Listening to Dan le batard in Miami, Saltalamacchia was a Jeffrey Loria handpick.