NFT: Mets Minors 4/27/2015

on Fulmer's velocity

Then really settled down

through five

until the fifth

Since the start of last year: 173 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.96 FIP. Wish the Mets could have uncovered whatever he's found.

could be a Matz kind of project, a highly touted prospect who was derailed by injuries and returns. I remember scouting reports saying he was throwing 93-96 in 2012 with a demeanor similar to Harvey.
http://metsblog.com/metsblog/know-a-pitching-prospect-mets-19-yr-old-rhp-michael-fulmer/ - ( New Window )

if keeps this up will be at Binghamton shortly.

I was a little surprised that they started him at High A after what he did in SS ball last year. Makes sense however if our attitude was "let's see what he does, we can always advance him."

FB and slider are both very good. He can't stay healthy and doesn't have a third workable pitch currently. If both of those things happen he could be a good 3-4 starter, more likely he'll be a reliever if he can stay healthy. Potentially of the late inning variety.

In comment 12250947 Bob in Newburgh said:

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if keeps this up will be at Binghamton shortly. I was a little surprised that they started him at High A after what he did in SS ball last year. Makes sense however if our attitude was "let's see what he does, we can always advance him."

No real advantage to having him skip 2 levels out of the gate. He was good, not great in BK and what's the rush? 4-6 weeks in A+ doesn't impact his timeline. DePo stated the decision was Savannah vs. St. Lucie so even skipping 1 level was seemingly a big decision for them.

In comment 12250839 NyquistX3 said:

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Since the start of last year: 173 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.96 FIP. Wish the Mets could have uncovered whatever he's found.

Quietly showed flashes of this in the minors. I thought he could have been better than Gee, obviously not THIS good though.

Thor
Gorski
Lugo
Gsellman

I see a big rush, not that Conforto is arriving in 2015.

And frankly, I have yet to understand the big deal about Nimmo. May well be a ML OF but the tools do not make your mouth drop open.

In comment 12250963 Bob in Newburgh said:

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I see a big rush, not that Conforto is arriving in 2015. And frankly, I have yet to understand the big deal about Nimmo. May well be a ML OF but the tools do not make your mouth drop open.

Bob,
4-6 weeks doesn't change his timeline. If he heads to AA in the middle of May and mashes then he becomes an option. If Granderson and Cuddyer are healthy they are going to play, just the way it is for now.

In comment 12250963 Bob in Newburgh said:

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I see a big rush, not that Conforto is arriving in 2015. And frankly, I have yet to understand the big deal about Nimmo. May well be a ML OF but the tools do not make your mouth drop open.

Nimmo is mostly about projection. I do agree with you though, to this point he looks like a potential "solid" player but not a difference maker. Hopefully more power comes. I'm feeling very David DeJesus about him currently.

who aren't exceedingly toolsy. If you look at the age 21 seasons, he's not that far off of Yelich. I'd be absolutely thrilled if Nimmo can continue developing into that kind of top of the order guy.

In comment 12250985 Eric on Li said:

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who aren't exceedingly toolsy. If you look at the age 21 seasons, he's not that far off of Yelich. I'd be absolutely thrilled if Nimmo can continue developing into that kind of top of the order guy.

I think you are underselling Yelich here. His hit tool was long considered to be ELITE and his age 21 season included 61 games at a .863 OPS in the minors and then .766 in 62 big league games that same year. Yelich was a career .311 hitter in the minors and at 19 years old put up an .871 OPS with 32 steals, 20 years old .918 OPS.

In comment 12250968 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 12250963 Bob in Newburgh said: Quote: I see a big rush, not that Conforto is arriving in 2015. And frankly, I have yet to understand the big deal about Nimmo. May well be a ML OF but the tools do not make your mouth drop open. Nimmo is mostly about projection. I do agree with you though, to this point he looks like a potential "solid" player but not a difference maker. Hopefully more power comes. I'm feeling very David DeJesus about him currently.

If DeJesus is his floor currently, i would take that in a heartbeat. He can develop power later on. You can do a lot worse than DeJesus.

So i guess Conforto's ceiling is a bit better than Josh Willingham now?

19- .871
20 .918
21 .863

(.883 career in the minors)


Nimmo
19 .778
20 .756
21. 820
22 So far this season .764

Career .783

So Yelich had 50 points on average career (.311 to .268) and 100+ points on OPS.

not really. A realistic ceiling for Conforto is likely still a Willingham type. An above average regular.

Career .823 OPS for Willingham. .847 OPS from his first full season for a 7 year run. If you think Conforto is very likely to surpass that I don't know what to say. Sure he can be better but Josh Willingham could flat hit. Willingham averaged 24 homers, 26 doubles, 2 triples during that span despite averaging 31 games missed.

7 seasons Josh Willingham 125 OPS+, Granderson career OPS+ is 115. Guys in the career 125 range-


Victor Martinez
Don Mattingly
Mike Napoli
Magglio Ordonez
Tim Salmon

What kind of player are we realistically projecting Conforto to be? Better than those guys? Hard to see that. Sure it's possible but yeah, still sticking with a Willingham level offensive player as realistic upside.

career 125 OPS+
Jay Buhner

Puckett... 124

In comment 12251008 DanMetroMan said:

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19- .871 20 .918 21 .863 (.883 career in the minors) Nimmo 19 .778 20 .756 21. 820 22 So far this season .764 Career .783 So Yelich had 50 points on average career (.311 to .268) and 100+ points on OPS.

Yelich has the minor league track record to suggest he's going to hit well in the major league level. He did look terrible against the Mets in the last series but that could have been attributed to his bad back.

Wanting to start another topic, Herrera is raking. I'm getting very excited about Dilson. How many little guys made to the majors who had power? I can think of Uggla but he had a lot of power more than Herrera has ever shown.

guys are really strangely underrated on BBI. Just like that guy on here who claims I "love" Werth for saying he's been a very good MLB player. Willingham was oft injured and a terrible defensive player but when he played he was very, very good offensively. A "Willingham" hitting 5th in this lineup would be fantastic.

In comment 12251008 DanMetroMan said:

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19- .871 20 .918 21 .863 (.883 career in the minors) Nimmo 19 .778 20 .756 21. 820 22 So far this season .764 Career .783 So Yelich had 50 points on average career (.311 to .268) and 100+ points on OPS.

But 50 points on average would add at least 50 points to slugging and 50 points to OBP which accounts for the difference in OPS. Nimmo needs to make more consistent contact if he is going to develop into a #2 hitter which he has the projection for

think Herrera is ever going to "hit for power" per se but he may be able to slug 12-15 per season. Altuve is only 5'7 and while his career high is 7, I don't think it would be crazy to see him hit 10+ in a season. Russell Martin is about 5'9 and has had 15-20 homer seasons.

But if Nimmo could cut the K's a bit and put some more balls in play what about someone like Nick Markakis?

a .311 career minor league hitter suggests a pretty elite hit tool. That gives someone hope that the guy would be at least solid even if the power doesn't come. Yelich has been touted as a "natural" with the bat since the day he was drafted. The question has always been about the power (and if he might move to 1b). Nimmo has always been viewed as a "project". Sucks he never regained his speed because that would have offset the chance he never hits for much power.

In comment 12251039 Mike in NY said:

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But if Nimmo could cut the K's a bit and put some more balls in play what about someone like Nick Markakis?

Markakis like upside seems realistic to me. Markakis was a better offensive player than people realize. It would be great if Nimmo developed into that. First 5 seasons .831 OPS. I'm betting against Nimmo doing that but it's of course possible.

In comment 12251020 DanMetroMan said:

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7 seasons Josh Willingham 125 OPS+, Granderson career OPS+ is 115. Guys in the career 125 range- Victor Martinez Don Mattingly Mike Napoli Magglio Ordonez Tim Salmon What kind of player are we realistically projecting Conforto to be? Better than those guys? Hard to see that. Sure it's possible but yeah, still sticking with a Willingham level offensive player as realistic upside.

You kinda have to look at the bigger picture in that his first 7 full seasons was very good but he pretty much fell off the map after age 33 and he became a full timer at age 27 which is a little late. Hopefully Conforto can have a longer career (and earlier) than that. But for a 17th rounder, the marlins got a steal.

In comment 12251054 DanMetroMan said:

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In comment 12251039 Mike in NY said: Quote: But if Nimmo could cut the K's a bit and put some more balls in play what about someone like Nick Markakis? Markakis like upside seems realistic to me. Markakis was a better offensive player than people realize. It would be great if Nimmo developed into that. First 5 seasons .831 OPS. I'm betting against Nimmo doing that but it's of course possible.

Camden Yards helped that OPS

for one would 100% sign for Conforto's first 7 seasons being that good, with Willingham's same trajectory (I'm assuming Conforto will be better than Willingham defensively). Most players are in decline mode by that stage anyway. I mean, not knocking Wright but I don't know that we ever see the "in his prime" David Wright we used to. If Conforto puts up a 7 year run of 125 OPS+ from 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29 and then begins his decline I'll take it. The Mets likely would have had a very nice run.

as an example is simply that. He's underrated across the board in baseball. If you say Conforto's ceiling is Willingham, most people would naturally think that was a swipe before checking the numbers. There are plenty of acclaimed players with similar offensive numbers that would "sound" better.

OPS+ of 119 for Markakis during that time. Averaged 41 doubles 18 homers during that time. Career 119 OPS+'s range for context-

Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Quentin, Ryan Zimmerman, Mark Grace, Billy Butler

I'd sign in one second for Nimmo to give the Mets that kind of offense OPS+ wise.

In comment 12251068 ZGiants98 said:

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as an example is simply that. He's underrated across the board in baseball. If you say Conforto's ceiling is Willingham, most people would naturally think that was a swipe before checking the numbers. There are plenty of acclaimed players with similar offensive numbers that would "sound" better.

100% fair. Certain players are underrated for whatever the reason. You hear the name and aren't impressed. I always found Aramis Ramirez to be very strangely underrated in this way.

Ramirez 370 career homers 1348 rbi, 3 time all-star

whats up with the Nationals? They've lost 5 straight and Scherzer is banged up a bit.

Conforto should be a "better Rendon" conveniently leaving defense out of it, and people would be flipping out. lol

still out, Wainright out. Just some things to monitor should they move Gee or Niese.

In comment 12251074 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

In comment 12251068 ZGiants98 said: Quote: as an example is simply that. He's underrated across the board in baseball. If you say Conforto's ceiling is Willingham, most people would naturally think that was a swipe before checking the numbers. There are plenty of acclaimed players with similar offensive numbers that would "sound" better. 100% fair. Certain players are underrated for whatever the reason. You hear the name and aren't impressed. I always found Aramis Ramirez to be very strangely underrated in this way.

Yup. And I even remember looking up Willingham when we had this discussion last time and being pretty shocked. lol

is money but his knee issues scare me.

In comment 12251078 DanMetroMan said:

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Ramirez 370 career homers 1348 rbi, 3 time all-star

Very underrated and was overshadowed by a lot of his peers during his prime. He started out young too at age 20 and had a much longer career than ppl would have thought. Not a HOFer but career to be proud of.

like his likely finished or close to it but 18 seasons in the bigs. Very impressive.

up Rendon because he was an advanced college prospect that moved quickly. .287, 21 homeruns, 83 RBI's, .824 OPS sounds a whole lot like Conforto actually speaking offensively of course.

put him on the DL last year.

In comment 12251101 Headhunter said:

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put him on the DL last year.

That sucks for him, back injuries are tricky and potentially chronic.

The Mets have signed free-agent infielder Brooks Conrad and assigned him to Triple-A Las Vegas, according to beat reporter Adam Rubin (April 26).

Conrad, 35, has a career .200 hitter, with a .271 OBP, 19 HR and 73 RBI in 460 major league at-bats.

He is a switch hitter and has mostly played second and third base during his professional career.

�We like what he brings to the table and thinks he�s a good addition to the organization,� a team official told Rubin.

Maybe Muno is staying a bit longer?

In comment 12251099 ZGiants98 said:

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up Rendon because he was an advanced college prospect that moved quickly. .287, 21 homeruns, 83 RBI's, .824 OPS sounds a whole lot like Conforto actually speaking offensively of course.

I didnt realize Rendon was that young (24). He's going to be a pain in the ass for the Mets for years to come. He's probably going to be better which is scary to think about.

the reality is, if you put Smith on back of jersey and didn't let on where he was drafted, you would think to date he was organizational filler type. You put the same jersey on Conforto and don't mention where he was drafted you would see a star in the making based on what he has done this season

He's absolutely a stud if healthy.

Brian P. Mangan ‏@brianpmangan 3m3 minutes ago
Brian P. Mangan
RT @themainemets "Pitchers are starting to avoid pitching to [Conforto], 4 intentional walks over the last 3 games."