NFT: Mets Minors 4/27/2015

That was Guillorme going 0-5 with a K at the top of the order. And Wuilmer's one hit was a poorly-played infield single.

Martires Arias (no relation to Jodi) gave them 7 strong innings allowing only 4 hits and 0 ER, struck out 5. The only guy he had trouble with was the 'Dogs young CF Dustin Fowler who touched Arias for 2 doubles. But Fowler's hot, he's on a 13 game hit streak.

In comment 12251130 sshin05 said:

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Brian P. Mangan ‏@brianpmangan 3m3 minutes ago Brian P. Mangan RT @themainemets "Pitchers are starting to avoid pitching to [Conforto], 4 intentional walks over the last 3 games."

He had 3 in one game, Bonds style.

down on Nimmo at all. He had a very good 2014. He was a unanimous top 5 Mets prospect heading into 2015.

So far in 17 games he is hitting .273 with 2 homeruns and a wRC+ of 124! He's doing fine and it seems like the power is starting to develop.

had me thinking of Ryan Howard. The dude was HOF bound until his injury but his 7 years including his ROY year, he was absolutely disgusting.

Averaged OBP .368, SLG.560, OPS.928, OPS+ 139, homers 41, RBI 123

has been pretty dreadful but he skipped a level and is young for the league. St. Lucie is going to struggle to score runs once Conforto is bumped unless the kiddies (Smith, Urena, Rosario) really start hitting

is moved up to AA middle of May. That sounds about right.

fine is not what you want from the guy picked 1 spot in front of Jose Fernandez, I'm sorry but he has been a disappointment to date. I expected him to dominate at a level and he hasn't, he has been "just fine" not good enough

In comment 12251143 ZGiants98 said:

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down on Nimmo at all. He had a very good 2014. He was a unanimous top 5 Mets prospect heading into 2015. So far in 17 games he is hitting .273 with 2 homeruns and a wRC+ of 124! He's doing fine and it seems like the power is starting to develop.

Not crapping on Nimmo but he sort of HAS TO hit for more power than he has or what's his real value? He's been fine this year but repeating AA you want to see a breakout type of year for a guy you are penciling in as a starting CO.

In comment 12251149 ZGiants98 said:

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is moved up to AA middle of May. That sounds about right.

That's most likely the plan but I'm not unhappy with him being in St. Lucie. Mashing and confidence aren't such a bad thing.

was a raw toolsy guy that we were all expected to be patient with. He's shown a lot of good things, and it seems like he keeps making increment improvements. He's on pace for exactly 19.05 homeruns over a 162 game season as of this moment. Would that be enough power for a huge onbase guy at the top of the order that plays good defense? I think it would be.

you could see in spring training has a great approach and a beautiful swing. I don't care if he never hits more than 20 HR's, he will have a high OBP and drive in tons of runs

the Mets aren't too enthused with Muno's glove work. Still think he can be a Turner type but it's tough to be a "hit only" MI. TJ Rivera is sort of in the same boat. Keeps hitting but glove will decide.

Cecchini & Nimmo IMO

In comment 12251154 Headhunter said:

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fine is not what you want from the guy picked 1 spot in front of Jose Fernandez, I'm sorry but he has been a disappointment to date. I expected him to dominate at a level and he hasn't, he has been "just fine" not good enough

Please. Don't bring up the Fernandez argument. That's ridiculous. Any player that makes it to the majors as a successful player picked in the first round is a fantastic pick period. You cant go back and play revisionist history with every pick.

dont make it to the majors at all.

or do you feel the need to defend everything Mets related as your default mode?

would keep that 124 wRC+ in context however. Look at some of the other top prospects in the EL

Trevor Story 210
Roman Quinn 175
Jagielo 156
Judge 155
Bird 145
Smith Jr. 146

124 is sort of "plugging along". You want to see your "difference making" prospects to stand out.

could still absolutely "break out" but it's fair to suggest if he's "only" this good that he's probably closer to a tweener "solid" player vs. what we hope for. Still time for sure.

In comment 12251183 Headhunter said:

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or do you feel the need to defend everything Mets related as your default mode?

I just dont know what the hell you are talking about. He HAS to dominate every level because he was picked ahead of Fernandez? Come on. He opsed .906 last year in high A ball. He HAS dominated through different periods of his development.

And this isn't some comparison with Conforto who was a polished college bat. They are totally different. I just dont see any reason whatsover to be "down" on Nimmo at this point.

are currently 10th defensively (tied with the Reds). I only bring this up because the Royals have been TWICE as good as the second best defensive team in baseball. WOW.

He had a run last year where he was killing it and then hurt his hand and he stopped killing it. I hope he becomes everything we want him to be

In comment 12251188 DanMetroMan said:

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would keep that 124 wRC+ in context however. Look at some of the other top prospects in the EL Trevor Story 210 Roman Quinn 175 Jagielo 156 Judge 155 Bird 145 Smith Jr. 146 124 is sort of "plugging along". You want to see your "difference making" prospects to stand out.

Sure. But its still good. He was at 165 in St. Lucie last year before getting called up to Bing.

let's reverse it, what has Nimmo shown to date that should get me excited other than his potential? You do know that potential means " hasn't done it yet"

cant really be judged directly. He seems to be improving. This year will tell a lot but in only a little over 2 weeks I wouldn't say he's playing poorly or anything. I just dont see why anyone would be down on him.

article from saturday
link - ( New Window )

In comment 12251208 Headhunter said:

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let's reverse it, what has Nimmo shown to date that should get me excited other than his potential? You do know that potential means " hasn't done it yet"

He's shown an extremely patient eye and approach. The guy is an onbase machine. He's also shown periods where he gets RAGING hot with the bat so we know he has it in him. He's shown an increase in power albeit slowly. He's not slow and he plays good defense. Whats NOT to be excited about?

Conforto excites me, waiting for Nimmo to break out. Im in no rush, if it's there, it eventually has to come out

once I think we are all basically in agreement here for the most part. He's been "fine", or even "solid" but we would like to see him do more before getting "excited".

In comment 12251228 DanMetroMan said:

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once I think we are all basically in agreement here for the most part. He's been "fine", or even "solid" but we would like to see him do more before getting "excited".

Its probably why I would sign up for DeJesus-comp right now.

Nimmo doesn't end up a STAR like Conforto seems to be shaping up as, but a solid all around player at the top of the order who can get on base would still be a homerun of a 1st round pick.

In comment 12251228 DanMetroMan said:

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once I think we are all basically in agreement here for the most part. He's been "fine", or even "solid" but we would like to see him do more before getting "excited".

Yeah. That's where Im at. I absolutely think he is still improving though and has "untapped potential". He's shown what he's capable of for stretches already. He's young. I'm still high on him. If he has a very poor 2015 I might change my tune but we aren't close to that yet.

is the organization believes in him

all of the first round picks this year. Big years for all of them. Cechinni seems to be breaking out a little early as well.

In comment 12251166 Headhunter said:

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you could see in spring training has a great approach and a beautiful swing. I don't care if he never hits more than 20 HR's, he will have a high OBP and drive in tons of runs

I think that's the thing g missing with Nimmo. Everyone wants something exciting from him. We'd accept Conforto to put up very good numbers. But For Nimmo people find it unacceptable if he can't hit 20 HRs. Nothing wrong with a very well rounded ball player who does everything g well, rather than one or two things exceptionally well. They can't all be all stars

In comment 12251109 sshin05 said:

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In comment 12251101 Headhunter said: Quote: put him on the DL last year. That sucks for him, back injuries are tricky and potentially chronic.

I'm devastated seeing Yelich still hurting. By far my favorite non met. As you could see by his swing so far this year, this is likely a game changer to his career.

a little lost in the Yankee series was some great performances by these two. I'm pumped to see more of Robles in the upcoming series and I have to hand it to Goedell too. Maybe he has really started figuring it out. Both have pretty good stuff.

Conforto in LF Larares in CF Nimmo in RF Wright 3b Flores SS Herrera 2b Duda 1b d'Arnaud/Plawecki C
Harvey Wheeler deGrom Matz Thor
Familia Robles Blevins Leathersich Morris Montero A Torres
Reynolds utilityman

in late 2016 being the core of a 3-5 year run. You can add a couple of bench players

In comment 12251290 Headhunter said:

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Conforto in LF Larares in CF Nimmo in RF Wright 3b Flores SS Herrera 2b Duda 1b d'Arnaud/Plawecki C Harvey Wheeler deGrom Matz Thor Familia Robles Blevins Leathersich Morris Montero A Torres Reynolds utilityman in late 2016 being the core of a 3-5 year run. You can add a couple of bench players

Looks about right. ;) And almost all partially developed in-house. Pretty rare in today's game.

like Robles to emerge in the worst way right about now.

Era adjusted? It makes a difference. If you told me right now that Conforto would stay healthy and would 800 OPS every year based on the current state of the game, I'd take it. I'd be thrilled. There were only 22 qualified 800+ guys in the NL last season

So Willingham as a 825-850 guy plays as a very good middle of the order bat. But of course, when Willingham was putting up those numbers the league average OPS was better. Willingham's 2007 852 OPS was good for only 121 OPS+ (also his career OPS+). 852 OPS last season (M. Kemp) was good for 139 OPS+. 139 OPS+ for Conforto would be GREAT.

Would I be happy with a "relative" Willingham career for Conforto? I.e. a 120 OPS+? That's about equal to 2014 Hunter Pence -- 777 OPS. Im not doing jumping jacks over that kind of production. Very valuable, but not a great "ceiling" for the best college bat in a draft class.

I think this is the problem people have with the Willingham comparison. Willingham during his prime was not a special bat, but the same production (not normalized for this era of pitching dominance) would be fantastic right now.

In comment 12251392 Deej said:

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Era adjusted? It makes a difference. If you told me right now that Conforto would stay healthy and would 800 OPS every year based on the current state of the game, I'd take it. I'd be thrilled. There were only 22 qualified 800+ guys in the NL last season So Willingham as a 825-850 guy plays as a very good middle of the order bat. But of course, when Willingham was putting up those numbers the league average OPS was better. Willingham's 2007 852 OPS was good for only 121 OPS+ (also his career OPS+). 852 OPS last season (M. Kemp) was good for 139 OPS+. 139 OPS+ for Conforto would be GREAT. Would I be happy with a "relative" Willingham career for Conforto? I.e. a 120 OPS+? That's about equal to 2014 Hunter Pence -- 777 OPS. Im not doing jumping jacks over that kind of production. Very valuable, but not a great "ceiling" for the best college bat in a draft class. I think this is the problem people have with the Willingham comparison. Willingham during his prime was not a special bat, but the same production (not normalized for this era of pitching dominance) would be fantastic right now.

Hunter Pence is a 90 million dollar man, and Willingham in his prime (a 7 year run) was a 125 OPS+ hitter. I'd be extremely happy if Conforto were Hunter Pence. If the Mets have Pence in RF over Granderson (and everyone were healthy) I think we'd have one of the best lineups in baseball.

Lagares
Murphy
Wright
Duda
Pence
Cuddyer
TDA
Flores

Looks damn good to me (ignore the order if you want).

In comment 12251020 DanMetroMan said:

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7 seasons Josh Willingham 125 OPS+, Granderson career OPS+ is 115. Guys in the career 125 range- Victor Martinez Don Mattingly Mike Napoli Magglio Ordonez Tim Salmon What kind of player are we realistically projecting Conforto to be? Better than those guys? Hard to see that. Sure it's possible but yeah, still sticking with a Willingham level offensive player as realistic upside.

DMM: there are real problems to comparing peak + to career +, especially for guys who broke down but didnt retire like Mattingly and Magglio. Comparing catchers and SS (Tulo) to corner OF production is also a real problem. Willingham's bat in an average defending SS/C body is 10x all star production; in a corner OF it is 0x.

Chris Archer of the Rays? He's been lights out this season. Harvey-esque.

In comment 12251399 DanMetroMan said:

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Hunter Pence is a 90 million dollar man, and Willingham in his prime (a 7 year run) was a 125 OPS+ hitter. I'd be extremely happy if Conforto were Hunter Pence. If the Mets have Pence in RF over Granderson (and everyone were healthy) I think we'd have one of the best lineups in baseball.

I'd probably be pretty happy too. But two things -- (1) Pence brings a lot of non-OPS value to the table (steals, leadership). And (2) I wouldnt be happy if you told me that Conforto's ceiling is Pence-like hitting (sans steals). Conforto is developing reasonably well; if you're telling me that the #10 pick cant do better than 777 OPS as a relatively limited-athlete corner OF, then it was a bad pick. There HAS to be some more upside in there than that.

In comment 12251420 Deej said:

Quote:

In comment 12251020 DanMetroMan said: Quote: 7 seasons Josh Willingham 125 OPS+, Granderson career OPS+ is 115. Guys in the career 125 range- Victor Martinez Don Mattingly Mike Napoli Magglio Ordonez Tim Salmon What kind of player are we realistically projecting Conforto to be? Better than those guys? Hard to see that. Sure it's possible but yeah, still sticking with a Willingham level offensive player as realistic upside. DMM: there are real problems to comparing peak + to career +, especially for guys who broke down but didnt retire like Mattingly and Magglio. Comparing catchers and SS (Tulo) to corner OF production is also a real problem. Willingham's bat in an average defending SS/C body is 10x all star production; in a corner OF it is 0x.

I don't think anybody believes Josh Willingham was close to the player Don Mattingly was. That wasn't my suggestion. My point was in his prime Josh Willingham was a very good offensive player. His 125 OPS+ vs. Granderson and his 118 mark in his prime, or Cuddyer and his career 114 mark etc etc. I really think you are underrating how good a 125 OPS+ for 7 seasons is.

for his career has 3 total seasons besting Willingham's "prime" seasons, and for his career has been an inferior offensive player (119 OPS+)

Werth from 2007-2014 OPS+ of 128. You don't think the Mets would celebrate Conforto being as good as Werth, a player who received 127 million dollars as a FA thanks to his prime years in Philly? I know I'd be really, really happy with Werth 2.0.

if Conforto is Willingham with 10-15 steals does it change things for you? Pence has averaged 13 steals per season for his career, Murphy has averaged 9 for comparison.

Mets lead the league in overall baserunning. Not exactly sure what Tom Goodwin does differently but the guy is a beast.