A current article from Variety reports that regular season viewership of the NFL on Fox fell last year from its 2013 high and on CBS, NBC and ESPN it suffered its fourth straight year of ratings below their 2010 peaks.
And this appears now to he hitting the networks where it hurts: the average prices of a 30-second ad spot on NBC and ESPN NFL programming last year were both down from their highs of 2013.
Now, don't cry for the networks. The NFL remains, in the words of NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy, "the most valuable programming and the best way to reach a massive and passionate audience." Indeed, 45 of the top 50 most-watched programs last year were NFL games, according to Nielsen.
However,"There's a sense that the NFL has reached the point of peak football in terms of broadcast television revenue and viewership," said Quinnipiac Associate Professor Richard Hanley. The article goes on to cite a growing sourcing of content and programming, including the NFL's own deals with Facebook and Twitter as increasingly attractive alternatives for advertisers. The hugely successful College Football Championship game is providing competition for ad dollars now too.
This will be worth following.
reduce the fucking amount of commercials and charge much more out the ass for the remaining spots left.
Kill three birds with one stone.
- Fans are happier about fewer breaks in game time, less likely to tune out if it's not their team.
- Possible increased revenue through higher cost of a more limited number of ads per game
- Did I mention happier fans?
The game has changed so much for the worse that while I will always watch the Giants play I don't watch all that many other games anymore. The pregame is unbearable to sit through.
I know I have been watching less and less the last three or four years. I never miss a Giants game, but outside of Sunday afternoon 1:00 & 4:00 games I find other things to do. That is a big change for me - I used to drop everything to watch a football game, i never cared who was playing or what their records were.
The NFL right now is just not as enjoyable as it once was for me.
The game has changed so much for the worse that while I will always watch the Giants play I don't watch all that many other games anymore. The pregame is unbearable to sit through.
What's changed for me is the ability to follow the sport I love has been enhanced beyond my available capacity to follow it.
In other words, sitting around watching every minute of pre and post game shows on Sunday was more important to me before all of that information in a better format became available via the internet. I have so much more Sunday time than I used to and couldn't care less about watching Fox's pre-game show before a Giants game. If I give them an hour before and after the game that I can't learn in moments online? I already follow all the news stories during the week, so the stories they share are generally old. Anything truly relevant/important will be repeated a million times and available to me to watch online as soon as I hear about it.
Instead of devoting 7-8 hours every Sunday during the season to football I now devote 3-4 hours, followed by 10-20 hours of following football throughout the week, either on BBI or elsewhere not controlled directly by the NFL.
I don't see the genie being put back in the bottle either. The NFL is going to have to deal with only having access to me during the live broadcast.
I'd suspect that Variety is seeing a decline in major network football ratings and assumes football is becoming less popular when it may be that major network television watching is declining quickly and the NFL is declining more slowly.
Just my two cents.
Football seems to broadly be divided in three categories of fans:
1) Diehard, general football fans who will watch any / all games (this used to be me).
2) Diehard fans of one team who watch few other games and only major games with other teams (this is increasingly describing me).
3) Fans mostly / solely interested in their fantasy teams with little to no knowledge or interest in the actual games or teams (unfortunately, a greater majority of fans and I'd guess a majority of new fans).
If they had fewer MNF, and every other Thursday, then fans would look forward to the games and view due to hunger to see games.
By the way I always wondered why we had to be warned that there's two minutes left what convenient BS
The serious issue with football going forward isn't attention spans or commercials or the League's pro-offense outlook. It's the player health issue. Survey parents about whether they would want their kids playing football. Project that into what they want their kids watching on TV, or what they want supported by their alma mater and/or state universities. That's a bigger threat by far than are fines for hard hits.
Culture is a resilient thing, sure, and football isn't going away any time soon. But I think the creeping guilt about watching young poor kids (because kids with attentive middle-class parents aren't going to be allowed to play) sacrifice their health and well-being for our amusement will take its toll.
NFL’s Scores in Ratings Make the TV Biz Willing to Follow the Game Plan - ( New Window )
AND
2. Over saturation. Thursday night, Sunday night, Monday night, Fantasy football, NFLN, Combine coverage, draft lead up, draft, aftermath of draft, and the several different waves of FA. It's just too much. They don't leave you wanting more, they leave you wanting less.
Never thought I'd hear myself say that it's too much football, but it is.
Perhaps I'm just a crabby old, cynical dinosaur now, but the average view just seems "dumber" to me. Like BB'56, I think Fantasy Football has contributed to this decline.
But I'm not sure of cause and effect. If you watch an old football broadcast from the 1980's or even 1990s, there was a lot more X's and O's being discussed during the game. Even John and Pat used to do more of that before they just became caricatures of themselves.
Did the networks adjust because of the fans? Or did they do it on their own? I'm not sure.
For example, it seemed to me that the Redskins fans I knew in the 1980's were pretty darn knowledgeable about the game. Now they seem like idiots who keep falling for the same bag of tricks that Snyder pulls on them. Hell, most of them don't even seem to know half the players on their own team.
Among those who classify themselves as "progressives", "more cultured" or "intelligentsia", there has always been animosity towards football. Right or wrong - they have always considered it barbaric (or feel jealously left out of the passion fans have to the game), and love to highlight any piece of data that show the game is on the decline. While there has been much serious discussion and analysis of the concussion issue, some of the coverage has had ulterior motives.
One choice might be the general feed, where various actor, actresses, politicians etc. are brought into the booth, with occasional discussions about the game (Monday Night Football).
Another might be a Red Zone type fantasy feed.
And (hopefully) an "Advanced Feed" with lots of X's and O's, expert commentary etc. No human interest angles etc., just pure football.
Sigh ... probably just a dream ...
Truly.
NFL is over exposed. College football is the same.
Most of us on this site remember 70/80/90's football where the pre-game and anticipation was half the excitement.
There is too much supply going around with sports due to technology which lends itself to greed.
Eventually, it will be nothing more then arena football (see NBA), but those new to it, will think it is the greatest thing ever.
Really no different then purists of MLB from the early 50's to the 80's,NFL 70's till 2000, and NBA early 80's till now.
quess it depends on how old you are.
We did.
You can't dismiss the trend like that. The point in Variety is that when past Septembers rolled around there were fewer eyeballs watching games each year since 2010.
The 2014 NFL Regular Season averaged 17.6 million viewers per game telecast, making it the second most-watched season ever behind the 2010 season (17.9 million).
NFL games accounted for the top 20, and 45 of the 50 most-watched TV shows among all programming last fall (chart below).
Five NFL game telecasts this season were watched by at least 29 million viewers, up from just one in the 2013 season.
That doesn't sound like it peaked, unless by "peaked" they mean completely saturated the market. That's like saying Google's peaked because they have increased their market share of search in years. It's so popular, any growth in the US market is going to be on the margins (likely why there's such a strong push to expand internationally), though there's also this:
And people wonder why Goodell is paid what he is...
And there's definitely no demographic issue with the younger audience:
NFL games accounted for the top 38 and 48 of the 50 most-watched telecasts (since Sept. 4) among adults aged 18-49 – with CBS, FOX, ESPN and NBC each represented on that list.
Here's the programs that kept the NFL from grabbing all of the top 50 most watched slots:
21. MLB World Series Game 7
25. Thanksgiving Day Parade
44. NCIS 9/30
49. 60 Minutes, 11/30
50. NCIS 9/23
NFL Viewership Stats - ( New Window )
Agree completely. I remember the same anticipations, publications, pre-game.
One thing I disagree with is any negatives from the FF trend. I'm in a league and it hasn't made me any dumber. In fact, our league has turned down applicants that we viewed as not knowledgeable enough and not die hard fans. The effect of FF on me has been getting me to watch non-Giants, non-NFC East games which I had absolutely no interest in before.
This.
I deal with the over-saturation by not watching ANY pre or post game shows (i used to watch them all in the '80s). but football is an important ritual.
Ratings Error Chips Away At Nielsen’s Credibility
This was one month (Oct/2014) after the Variety article (Sep/2014).
Also, from Variety (again, Sep/2014)
NFL’s Scores in Ratings Make the TV Biz Willing to Follow the Game Plan
Now, the NFL has had a lousy few years, and I wouldn't be suprised to see a leveling of the momentum they had earlier.
This would be a better discussion, however, if the original writer of the article had done their homework, and not tried to push click bait.
The article's focus and point I think is not that the NFL or football's popularity itself is waning but that the networks' ability to command ever increasing spot advertising prices for the live broadcasts may have peaked. The article notes several reasons and they have been touched on in this thread.
If this indeed marks a tipping point of sorts where ad dollars are moving away from the traditional broadcasts to other media and alternate programs and events, then there may be a meaningful impact on the league itself. We'll see.
Another thing to factor in is the dilution of the product which some others have touched on. The NFL is currently crushing it in the ratings and revenues, so I think it's a very safe assumption, given the factors mentioned, that they have peaked or are peaking.
When I do watch NFL games now I feel like I'm often watching a penalty and commercial filled snooze fest with almost an addict's hope and anticipation of seeing something - anything - exciting happen. But it's also not the good, edge-of-your-seat anticipation one feels from, say, a playoff hockey game (or dare I say a good soccer match!?) rather it's more like the monotony of a slot machine where just one more play might finally justify all the time and money one's wasted so far just sitting and staring blankly.
Quote:
The game isn't what it used to be with the watering down of hitting and defense, but hopefully as time passes it will regain some luster.
I could not agree more. The CBA effectively killed the game for me. I"m still a die hard, football has always been my first love since I could pick one up but it's not anywhere near the product it once was. Teams are simply not able to deploy the types of schemes they did in the past unless you have a coach and system in place for 5+ years and retain a lot of veterans. The learning period that used to be training camp is now just a dog and pony show.
Yup, and the various rules changes made to shorten the game and increase commercials in the mid-90s still suck. Less football is stupid. Bring back the original timing rules and eff yo commercials.
2) Pro football wants a wide-open game. but there's a severe cost, specifically the "no bumping the receiver after five yards". What this has done is invite some pretty vicious hits on them that wouldn't have happened if the defender had had the opportunity to defend aggressively all the way.
3) The growing immigrant population has little or no interest in American football. These are the kids that you see at the playground playing SOCCER. All this while our children are INSIDE playing Call of Duty.
I'm not sure from a PR standpoint the NFL can withstand a torrent of in-season scandals this season. I can see folks getting more fed up with it then.
It all comes back to self-indulgent, self-centered owners; multi-multi millionaires who are used to getting what they want. In the 2000's these same owners had a perfect product, a proverbial cash cow and rather than tweak it here and there they decided to ride it hard until it collapses from exhaustion.
They have polluted the game for short-term gain while ignoring the future. Alienating the hard-core fan will, eventually, be the downfall of the league.
False.
How many 80+ point games were there last year? If "they" really wanted that, wouldn't have the games every week have scoring like that?
More NFL scoring doesn't make fantasy football any different. A rising tide raises all boats.
Why would fantasy football-playing viewers be more important than any other kind of viewer?
But the changes in the game itself are not due to fantasy football.
And like, say, for another example, kill shots and late hits being flagged more in response to the concussion scare and other injury concerns?
And, like, say, for another example, a CBA that reduces the live hitting and tackling in training camps, leading to sloppier play, especially earlier in the regular season?
And how about the heavy roster turnover due to free agency and cap casualties? It hurts on-field chemistry and communication and prevents teams from achieving sustained dominance.
But that is the precise reason why the NFL wants to increase to 18 games.
They have concluded that the viewers want more football and not less.
With the revenue continuing to go up and up and up. It's almost like the dot com bubble we saw in the 90's. No one knows when it will end until it actually happens.
And to think, there are revenue streams they haven't even hit up just yet. The big one as we all know is online streaming of out of market games to non DirecTV Sunday Ticket subs.
Revenues will continue to go up, but at greater expense. Margins will be lower.
Increasing to 18 games is highly likely. If your a hammer, everything looks like a nail. With lower volume, only increased volume will sustain profits.
The increased volume will expedite its decline. 53 man rosters will be decimated, like the gladiator games of old.
I think a problem they may have in the near future is the stadium experience. I went to a Jets game last year (my buddy had a free ticket), and the only part of the day I really enjoyed was throwing the football around in the parking lot over a few beers. The stadium experience itself sucked. Endless stoppages, obnoxious fans, expensive food. Forgettable experience at best.
I went to a Red Bulls game last week that was better than almost any NFL game I've been to, and at a fraction of the cost.
I do hope something happens to stimulate positive change, because it's a great game and the athletes are better than ever. The quality of play should be higher than ever, but it so clearly isn't.