Giddies bakers dozen thread got me thinking about who could be poised for a breakout year and I gotta say, I think Randle needs to be on that list. He's gotten a good bit of flak, deservedLy so given the nature of his brain farts: missing meetings, being fined by the team, and at times struggling to grasp the O has caught him the ire of many fans. But when you look at the numbers I think there's so much room for optimism.
I really think he can break out this year, regardless of Cruz's status. It's always been mental for him, the talent is obvious and he really turned it on down the stretch. And although the brain farts and fines have been frustrating we can't act like the kid hasn't produced. 131 receptions for just under 2K yards and 12 TDs over three seasons in a limited role (17 starts in 48 appearances).
Compare that to the rest of his draft class: based on production he currently ranks 5th out of 33 wideouts taken in 2012, behind only up and coming stars T.Y. Hilton, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Floyd, and Kendall Wright. And the numbers are comparable in many cases. If he dedicates himself to correcting the mental mistakes he's ripe for a breakout season IMO and will only be helped by the addition of Vereen, the (hopefully) continued development of Donnell, and the return of Cruz. And while we all know that last one is a big question mark, he still nearly eclipsed 1,000 yards last season without Cruz.
We knew coming out of college he'd need to refine his mental attributes and really work to pick up an offense. So far, mental mistakes notwithstanding, he's managed to develop each season and increase his production:
Yr 1: 19/298/3
Yr 2: 41/611/6
Yr 3: 71/938/3
Kids got all the tools to be a solid #2 and has improved each season. He nearly eclipsed 1K yards last year and while the attention was on OBJ he took advantage of largely being in one on one coverage and produced, which is all you can really ask. There's only so many balls to go around and we don't know Cruz's status so I don't want to make any predictions number-wise but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he had a breakout year.
Thoughts?
I have a funny feeling that the Giants will have FA Randle, JPP and Prince and may let all 3 go at high prices and only draft or sign reasonable free agents.
I don't know why I think that but I can see us getting #3, #3 and #4 for those three guys!
RR is not the issue to me it's can we get the entire offense going from the start of the season. We can't have the bad Eli, no running game, OL on and off from week to week and most importantly beat the injury bug. The team has some talent but can they be consistent with whatever game plan they decide on. Winning is the cure to all ails we are not winning so everything is magnified, can we win games that matter is key.
- Prince. Very solid corner who will be paid BIG money on the open market.
- Randall. The guy is still very young and put up good numbers last year with an occasional brain fart. His upside is huge and I'll think he will put up the numbers this year. It will probably come down (if we are lucky) to signing him or keeping Cruz. If we are lucky on both ends.
- Eli - I really don't know what they are thinking. He really should have been signed long term about 2 years ago. At that time, he would've been much cheaper through his prime and his number at the end of his prime would have been managable. We've overpaid salary wise the past 2 years and now we still need to sign him to a 5-6 year deal which may then necessitate a painful decision.
- JPP - I think he will have a monster year as Spags turns him lose in ways that Fewell never imagined.
There are other young vets that have a very high ceiling that should have been considered also (some have in no way come close to their ceiling but I could see locking them in long term. Hankins - he is there already. Moore/Donell - sign them for much cheaper now based on potential. If they don't reach it, the cap hit won't kill you. If they reach it, you have a complete steal.
I think that he will show flashes of being a real good WR but will not "break out" simply because the ball will not be thrown his way as much as he would like. So at the end of the year, he walks, gets to another team and has a "break out" year with that team.
However, I think his production will take a hit this year. That isnt to say that he won't improve, I just think his stats won't be as good and others will take that as a down year.
Two reasons:
1. Victor Cruz will take targets away from him.
2. I expect/hope the running game to be much improved.
Also, more YAC. He seems to go down as soon as someone touches him.
I won't do that now. I would wait and see how he produces. He could very well follow Nicks and have a shitty ass contract year where the guy gets fined or benched.
So I want to see how he produces first. I am not extending any of the guys from Eli, JPP and RR. Wait and see for all.
I don't know why I think that but I can see us getting #3, #3 and #4 for those three guys!
Hope Randall has a breakout year.....that creates more options for the offense, and makes us harder to defend.....
If he has a breakout year, he goes to the highest bidder....and losing those three impact players will not be replaceable with a 3,3, and 4...
Fact is, we don't draft impact players from those positions....
We have cap space, but with Eli, Prince, JPP, Randall, etc. being free agents, we can't sign them all......or can we? however, guys like Beatty and Cruz(if that knee does not come back) could be cuts, or restructured, creating some cap relief.....
So next year is a big cap year to make decisions.....you can get these guys under cap friendly first and second year contracts, and make your run in 2016 and 2017......yes, you might mortgage the future, but looking down the road 5-10 years from now, is '16 and '17 your best shot at a SB?
So the tough decision of what 4 do we invest became easy. Same with this let's see how everything plays out.
Hakeem Nicks two best seasons were better than this, but that's it.
what is a breakout? 90 catches? that's almost top 10 in the league.
In that game, Randle demonstrated much more urgency, awareness, and he completed his fundamentals throughout the play (eg, clean routes, used his body position to shield defenders, went up and fought for the pass at its highest point, played full speed).
I have a funny feeling that the Giants will have FA Randle, JPP and Prince and may let all 3 go at high prices and only draft or sign reasonable free agents.
I don't know why I think that but I can see us getting #3, #3 and #4 for those three guys!
We wouldn't see those picks until 2017 draft. And would you really want to replace two stud 1st round talents and Randle a 2nd round talent (some said 1st) with Reese's comp pick roulette? We could end up with Barden and Beckum types.
We need to sign Prince and I would franchise JPP again until we at least have a high end pass rusher to replace him.
Randle - 23: 71 catches, 938 yards
Randle - 24: ???
Dez Bryant 23: 63 catches, 928 yards
Dez Bryant 24: 92 catches, 1,382 yards
AJ Green 23: 65 catches, 1,057 yards
AJ Green 34: 97 catches, 1,350 yards
Jerry Rice 23: 49 catches, 927 yards
Jerry Rice 24: 86 catches, 1,570 yards
Of course I'm not saying that Randle is the next Jerry Rice or even AJ Green, I'm just pointing out that players get better as they hit their mid twenties. Most guys Randle's age are just entering the NFL.
The dude has the skills and the opportunity to become a big time receiver in the league, especially playing next to Odell. Cruz or not, he's a good bet to crack 1,000 yards this year and make himself a lot of money.
It's too bad that his prime probably won't be with the Giants because it's looking like he's going to be a good one.
IF the coaches are confident, then, yeah, take a chance. But if they're confident, he's confident, and he's not going to sign cheap. Why should he? if he fails, he'll sign cheap anywhere. if he makes it, he'll get a pay day. no sense rushing the situation and signing a contract he may regret. and there's no real reason for the Giants to offer him a contract they may regret, unless they're convinced.