Going off what Anakim posted from Begley and how the Knicks are supposedly considering him.
Per Mark Titus:
"At this point, I’d even be fine with someone explaining why Winslow doesn’t belong in the discussion for the top pick. I just want to hear “Winslow” and “top pick” in the same sentence. I mean, he’s teammates with a guy everyone assumes will be the no. 1 overall pick, yet Winslow has been Duke’s best player in the tournament.1 He’s built like a tank, he plays both ends of the floor, and for all the concerns about his outside shot, he’s already a better shooter than Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will ever be.
I’m not saying I’d take Winslow first. I’m not even saying I’d definitely take him in the top five. I’m just saying that if it’s a two-horse race for the top pick and one of those horses plays awful defense, air-balls free throws, and is being outplayed by a top prospect on his own team, what’s the harm in suggesting that maybe a third horse be added to the race?"
I am not saying our sights should be set on Winslow. I'm just suggesting to keep an open mind on this kid.
I believe he is a safer pick than any of the top 4 prospects. At the worst, KAT may not develop the footwork to be a dominant post presence, Okafor doesn't learn how to play a lick of defense and just becomes Enes Kanter, Mudiay doesn't learn how to shoot and remains TO prone, and Russell's lack of burst prevents him from becoming a lead guard.
Winslow's worst case is a jacked Shumpert, or as Titus put, MKG with a much better jump shot. He is long and quick enough to guard 1s and2s and is built enough to guard 4s and even 5s as he did numerous times in college. He shot 41% from 3 in college after being criticized for not having any range in HS. On the other hand, his ceiling is Jimmy Butler. Butler didn't even have a 3 point shot after 3 years in college. Winslow has a ways to go on offense to get to that level but again, I don't see how bad a 6'6" guard that's 225 with a wingspan of 6'10" and is ridiculously athletic can be in the NBA.
Ok so Winslow gets knocked for much of his game being motor and now you are bringing up that he doesn't have one?
I suggest you watch the video below. I am an avid NCAA fan and a Duke hater but I even find that ridiculous. Winslow's biggest strength IS his motor and work ethic.
And I admit his handle isn't great but it is polished. As you can see, he is able to finish off straight line drives and euro steps. But you're right, he doesn't have a creative handle if that's what you meant by "suspect". But since when did the 2 spot require that? Shumpert and Danny Green all have no handles but have succeeded due to their 3 and D abilities.
Klay Thompson and Kawhi both came into the league with suspect handles...
Winslow Scouting - ( New Window )
Second, I don't want to draft a guy with an Iman Shumpert floor at 4th overall. Iman Shumpert is a deeply flawed player. Next, if Winslow has to play guard, which he would with the Knicks, then his lack of ball handling would become an even bigger issue, as Shumpert himself shows. Finally, I noted that there are exceptions like Butler or Leonard. Thompson is an inappropriate comparison because he's always been a better ball handler than Winslow with a dead eye shot. His concern was athleticism and he's shown himself to be more than athletic enough. Leonard and Butler are also guys who were developed on franchises that have been much better at keeping and developing young talent than the Knicks. Winslow is far too risky for me with far too low a floor.
In fact, I'd say that the other four players are both safer and have higher upside given their already reasonably developed skill sets.
There is major questions if he can play the 2. Lack of jumper and handle def are a concern. He is most likely a 3 and i do think the MKG comparisons are very good. But knowing what we know now im not sure im crazy about getting MKG in the top 5.
I kinda feel like i did about shumpert where you are kinda hoping he becomes a tony allen type with an actual offensive game. Now at 17 or whatever we were talking shump i loved that, but at 5 id be worried. Again i really like winslow and if we had ended up 5 and thought there was at least a 50% chance he could play the 2 he would be my pick easily.
meh.
This Ohio State team was really bad and Russell carried them all season.
meh.
This Ohio State team was really bad and Russell carried them all season.
I don't think that's the greatest way to look at it. There have been plenty of Kentucky teams that produced many successful 1st round picks in the same draft. I think it's more of an issue when a team that didn't find success has multiple 1st round picks, like a UNC. You could argue that Winslow and Tyus Jones were much more impactful for Duke down the stretch than anyone else on the roster.
@Ash sorry if I came across that way.
That said I was just making the case for Winslow. Im still dead set on Mudiay and would still go for the other 3 over Winslow.
I still think Winslow is going to end up being a tremendous 2 way player in the league. My guess is that Orlando takes him, he is a perfect fit there as a wing defender. Payton, Oladipo, Winslow, Harris, Vucevic and Gotdon off the bench will be something to watch.
In a theoretical trade for Melo for the #2, how do you guys think a backcourt of Russell and Mudiay would turn out? We probably get a big and guard in that scenario but Russell and Mudiay seem to be almost perfect fits next two each other in a backcourt.
I think Channing Frye could be a potential target for it. Ian Mahinimi could be a good backup center option too.
I think Channing Frye could be a potential target for it. Ian Mahinimi could be a good backup center option too.
Yes it's 1 for 1.
Unfortunately your friend's probably full of shit.
As bad as the east is now I don't see it remaining that way.
I know LA wouldn't give up the 2 for Melo.
I hope Houston gets blown out so they realize they need another piece.
I'd cut our losses and take Terrence Jones, Donatas Montoujnas, and Clint Capela. Throw in a 1st round pick or two, I don't care.
Didn't someone post that proposal in the other thread? I don't think he posed it as a rumor either. I think he just came up with it?
I wouldn't consider DraftExpress secret because thats essentially the most in depth scouting an average fan can see, but here's a link to that if you have not seen it yet.
I was in your position about a month ago. Obviously China is hard to figure out in terms of talent level, but many above average NCAA players end up there and some NBA vets. There may not be as many pure athletes over there, but you are going up against grown men.
He can attack, pass and defend, and shooting is his biggest question mark but he shot pretty well in the few games he played there. The 3 point line there is 22 feet as well.
One thing that reassures me on Mudiay is that he was a top 5-10 HS recruit and he didn't do anything in China that raised any red flags, he just reaffirmed his recruiting status.
Mudiay scouting - ( New Window )
Rockets: Trade Clint Capela, Nick Johnson, Trevor Ariza, Kostas Papanikolaou, Donatas Montiejunas, and New Orleans #18 pick in this years draft. Maybe some future 1st rounder or two.
Knicks bias aside, this trade honestly helps out Houston a lot I think. Dwight Howard has shown he is still one of the top 3-4 centers in the league when he is healthy, but also probably has only 3 elite years in him. They went this far without D-Mo so I dont think thats a big issue for them and they'd still have Terrence Jones and a mid 1st round pick isn't going to give them any edge for the next few years. This team has a ceiling and may need someone like Melo to put them into contention. Plus they have Brewer and are getting Beverly back so they won't need Ariza's perimeter defense.
As for the Knicks, we then take Mudiay/Russell with the #4 pick and Jerian Grant, Hollis Jefferson, or Terry Rozier with the #18 pick.
This opens up cap space, which allows us to "overpay" some guys, but in reality the contracts will be great deals in the upcoming years.
Give Greg Monroe the max. We can give some teams hard times with free agents by offering relatively lucrative deals to young guys like Jae Crowder, Kyle Singler, Bismack Biyombo, and Larry Sanders.
Would Boston really match a $40M+ 4 year offer for Crowder?
Obviously we aren't getting fair value for Melo but at least we recuperate some of the many draft picks we lost in the process. This is a key free agency year as we can get solid young rotational players for the next time a major free agent hits the market in a few years. Maybe Cousins hits the market and is enticed by a young NY team. Demar Derzan isn't stellar but his penchant for getting FTs could be useful if he hits the market.
Mudiay, Crowder, Monroe, D-Mo, Capela, and Rozier could all be solid cornerstones by the next time a free agent star comes around.
In about 3-4 years, Noah, Gasol, Gibson, Horford, Gortat,Wade, Bosh, and Lebron will all be at the end of the line. The Bucks, Celtics, and Magic will be the future. I want to be part of that group rather than the Hawks or Wizards or Raptors.
All the elite talent remains in the west. All the emerging young stars (Davis, Cousins) are also in the west.
Mudiay, Monroe and Derozan may not become superstars but they could be some of the better players in the eastern conference in a few years.
Re; the possibility of a trade to Houston. The Knicks should want to move Melo if only to get rid of the salary. This club will not be a good club for a few years and Melo is already on the wrong side of his career and it will get worse in a few years. The problem is that keeping Melo with a high pick this year and a free agent or 2 this year will make the team a possible playoff team in the East but they will still be a very ordinary team. And, the motherlode of free agents is next year so having extra cap money year after this is optimal.
Re; the possibility of a trade to Houston. The Knicks should want to move Melo if only to get rid of the salary. This club will not be a good club for a few years and Melo is already on the wrong side of his career and it will get worse in a few years. The problem is that keeping Melo with a high pick this year and a free agent or 2 this year will make the team a possible playoff team in the East but they will still be a very ordinary team. And, the motherlode of free agents is next year so having extra cap money year after this is optimal.
Yeah i completely agree. If we are possible playoff team, we will make short-term deals instead of going for players that might be useful after Melo is gone. We would shed roughly an average of $8 million years over the next few years just from ridding Melo's contract. Kostas contract ends next year so thats another $5 million.
Ariza's contract is the only one that would stay on the books long term and his salary decreases every year. Essentially we would have an extra $14 million over the next 4 years to play with.
Houston is the only team I can think of that might want Melo, make it work salary wise and provide some assets in return.
Dallas and Toronto cannot provide anything in return.
What does George Karl think of Melo? They could give the 5th, Rudy and Derrick Williams if they don't think this draft is good.
Another intriguing team I just thought of is Charlotte. With Al Jefferson they are sort of built to win now.
Melo for the #9, Cody Zeller, Noah Vonleh, Lance Stephenson, and Marvin Williams would be intriguing too. Marvin and Lance will be off the books after next year so that clears up $16 million every year going forward.
Not sure how I feel about losing Ariza though. If you replaced Ariza with Melo on this current Rockets team, they'd probably be worse imo. Ariza is such an awesome team player whose impact goes beyond the numbers.
If the Rockets could get Melo without giving up Trev, I'd be for it. Don't think that's realistic though.
Winslow was the best player I saw during March Madness, and it really wasn't close. I think he has a big future in the NBA. The Jimmy Butler comparison is just perfect and I think he has that potential. But for the Knicks, I'd take Russell/Mudiay ahead of Winslow because you guys desperately need a stud young ball-handler more than anything.
Not sure how I feel about losing Ariza though. If you replaced Ariza with Melo on this current Rockets team, they'd probably be worse imo. Ariza is such an awesome team player whose impact goes beyond the numbers.
If the Rockets could get Melo without giving up Trev, I'd be for it. Don't think that's realistic though.
Winslow was the best player I saw during March Madness, and it really wasn't close. I think he has a big future in the NBA. The Jimmy Butler comparison is just perfect and I think he has that potential. But for the Knicks, I'd take Russell/Mudiay ahead of Winslow because you guys desperately need a stud young ball-handler more than anything.
If Brewer opted in (which might be likely because he could fetch more next year) they could send Brewer instead of Ariza, return prigioni to us, and send Dorsey and maybe some other minimum contracts.
Although I could be messing this up. Right now they have $6 million free in cap space but thats not accounting for Beverly, Terry and Josh Smith being free agents. I know you can go over the cap to sign back your own players, but there could be restrictions from acquiring another player before signing back your own players. In that case they'd have to send Brewer AND Ariza which would probably be a no go.
If it were a draft night trade I'm pretty confident the salaries would work because Kostas P. has a team option, Ariza is already on the books and they'd be just under the cap before FA started.
Charlotte looks like a better trade partner for both sides, however. I think Michael Jordan would value Melo higher than Daryl Morey and the #9 pick looks to have much more relative value than the #18 pick for the Knicks. Plus Charlotte has a bunch of expirings with Marvin Williams, Gerald Henderson, and Lance Stephenson. They could clear up enough cap room to go after someone like Aaron Afflalo. I don't think Charlotte would have too many qualms with losing Zeller and Vonleh, its all on how much they value the #9 pick and whether they view themselves as a win-now team or rebuilding team.
A team of Kemba, Afflalo, Melo, MKG and Big Al could be a top 4 seed in the East.
Winslow probably won't be in the mix with the top 4 players, but he's definitely a better prospect than MKG. Even the Iman Shumpert comparison is poor because Winslow is automatically better than him as a shooter (which is his weakness), rebounder, and defensive versatility.
Winslow probably won't be in the mix with the top 4 players, but he's definitely a better prospect than MKG. Even the Iman Shumpert comparison is poor because Winslow is automatically better than him as a shooter (which is his weakness), rebounder, and defensive versatility.
Oh no question IMO. I was just listing his absolute floor- what would he be if he came into the league and did not improve at anything from college. The comparison Mark Titus was "MKG with a jumper" not simply "MKG".
I wouldn't say he is "already better" than Shumpert as a shooter. Shumpert is currently a league average 3 point shooter so its risky to claim Winslow as an above average NBA 3 point shooter before we even see him attempt a longer 3. I don't doubt he will surpass Shump in a year or two. If you were comparing him to Shumpert coming out of college, then yes I'd agree with that.
Draft the PG and fill out the roster otherwise. there are also very few PGs available on the market... unless you want to trade for Dwill... pls do!
meh.
This Ohio State team was really bad and Russell carried them all season.
Yeah the john wall, demrarcus cousins, eric Bledsoe trio didn't work out too well. :)
Quote:
always makes me uneasy when you are drafting guys with multiple first round picks on their roster. Winslow, Jones, and Okafor all on one squad?
meh.
This Ohio State team was really bad and Russell carried them all season.
Yeah the john wall, demrarcus cousins, eric Bledsoe trio didn't work out too well. :)
I didnt say it was a death sentence. But I don't think it's a stretch to say that Winslow's life was made easier by the fact that he had Okafor attracting so much attention and vice versa.